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sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5800 on: August 18, 2019, 03:37:21 PM »
Ice continues to be transported into the Beaufort which has slow the decline in extent. You can see the effects of transport into the Greenland Sea as well.
Yes. A new ”load” is now being left and the transport will continue along the week. I assume the hot waters prevailing will slowly mix and end with any more incoming ice. This inverted dipole is not good either.
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NotaDenier

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5801 on: August 18, 2019, 03:38:44 PM »
Cross posting from the Arctic ocean waves temperature salinity thread.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg223000.html#msg223000

German ship to drift near pole
From next month, Rex will head a major winter expedition. The Polarstern (Polar Star), a German research ship, will drift across the Central Arctic by tying itself to a large ice flow for months through the winter dark.
"We'll be north of the 80th parallel the entire time, and for much of it, we'll even be in the direct vicinity of the North Pole," Rex said.
Aside from Norway's 19th century explorer Fridtjof Nansen, few had conducted an ice-drift winter analysis so far north in the "epicenter of global warming," he added.
Norwegian researchers warned the Arctic Council in May that the North's chilled stratified waters — vital for unique fish life — were already "shifting" to resemble mixed Atlantic waters because of temperature rises.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5802 on: August 18, 2019, 04:06:44 PM »
The Polarstern (Polar Star), a German research ship, will drift across the Central Arctic by tying itself to a large ice flow for months through the winter dark.

That'll be great to follow. Good luck finding a large floe!



In the Laptev sector, another day with little detected change in concentration, despite continued heat. Is this ice too thick to respond this year (in terms of extent)? On the Pacific side, as noted by others, advection southward is being largely offset by melt, while on the Atlantic side, northward advection and melt continues. Fram export is accelerating.





On the other hand, WorldView shows the ice in the Laptev sector looking terribly weak. Could it be getting close to zero thickness over large areas? If not, there is at least space for significant compression (depending on winds).

https://go.nasa.gov/33DwZQV
« Last Edit: August 18, 2019, 04:31:02 PM by petm »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5803 on: August 18, 2019, 04:30:45 PM »
Ice continues to be transported into the Beaufort which has slow the decline in extent. You can see the effects of transport into the Greenland Sea as well.

This was last updated on August 7th (11 days ago).

I see that...wonder why that is...

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5804 on: August 18, 2019, 04:50:27 PM »
This product shows the stall...

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5805 on: August 18, 2019, 04:59:01 PM »
Today in Ireland the tide was the highest Ive ever seen on the beach I went to in Sligo. 3 weeks ago I went to another beach and noticed some of the road had been taken by the sea. Is this related to the gigaton melting in Greenland and the Arctic? Is it already happening?

My understanding is yes, this is the sea level rise.
It is particularly bad on the East and Gulf Coasts of America because the land there is naturallt subsiding.

Your local tides are affected by too many things to say these particular tides were *caused by* climate change, but certainly the overall higher tides - the higher than ever aspect - is at least partly due to climate change and melting Greenland ice. However, you seem to be asking if the very recent big melt in Greenland would already be affecting your tides locally. If that is your question, very likely not. It takes time for the waters of the oceans to mix and equilibrate. Where water builds up and doesn't is very, very complex, and not always due to being close to a melt source.

Basically, probably not.

Also, this specific question is likely considered off-topic, so maybe go on twitter and ask Jason Box.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5806 on: August 18, 2019, 05:11:16 PM »
It takes time for the waters of the oceans to mix and equilibrate.

Wait, i understand that things like temperature and salinity mixing are slow processes, but this is not what the question is about. We are talking about the effects of gravity, right? Gravity and therefore sea surface hight should be immediate, no?
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Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5807 on: August 18, 2019, 05:33:01 PM »
It takes time for the waters of the oceans to mix and equilibrate.

Wait, i understand that things like temperature and salinity mixing are slow processes, but this is not what the question is about. We are talking about the effects of gravity, right? Gravity and therefore sea surface hight should be immediate, no?

Coming to the same (relative) level (allowing for all the factors that, were sea level static, would pile up water here and not there), requires waters to mix. I do not, however, mean the mixing of layers, though I suppose a little of that would also happen because of new watr being added bc of temp differentials, etc.

But, no, I was not talking about strata mixing, per se, but any sgnificant added water causes the entire global ocean to rise eventually. Takes time. That's what I meant.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5808 on: August 18, 2019, 05:38:36 PM »
It takes time for the waters of the oceans to mix and equilibrate.

Wait, i understand that things like temperature and salinity mixing are slow processes, but this is not what the question is about. We are talking about the effects of gravity, right? Gravity and therefore sea surface hight should be immediate, no?
Going metaphysical here ... is gravity "immediate" or not? Where is that pesky graviton?

I have it on good authority that the surface of the oceans may go up in one place and down in another, (and I don't mean waves) so I for one would not want to claim any immediate effect here.
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5809 on: August 18, 2019, 05:46:13 PM »
It's physical, not metaphysical. Noting is "immediate", not even gravity waves. And ocean waves do not travel at the speed of light. But relative to diffusion, ocean waves do travel extremely quickly.

https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/gravitational-waves/en/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_wave#Physics_of_waves

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5810 on: August 18, 2019, 05:54:26 PM »
In the Laptev sector, another day with little detected change in concentration, despite continued heat. Is this ice too thick to respond this year (in terms of extent)? On the Pacific side, as noted by others, advection southward is being largely offset by melt, while on the Atlantic side, northward advection and melt continues. Fram export is accelerating.


You're touching a point here that makes me think since some time and has done so in earlier years.

Conclusion i can't provide but perhaps a few ideas to be falsified so to get closer to the reasons(s)

Heat is high (almost high summer-like ) winds are strong, waves are more than in July due to more open waters, points under attack there are many, hence ice should melt at full speed.

Why don't the numbers fully reflect this?

I. One possible answer and my favorite is that insolation can be replaced by nothing that's there.
means, winds over ice at 1-3C don't do the job nearly as well as a decent portion of sunlight at a decent angle under clear skies.

II. Dispersion is kind of camouflaging what happens, but then there are spots where we can see quite well from time to time what's up and it's not as close to melt-out as one could expect.

III. Ice has been made of already melted first year ice that served as kind of glue and quite many MYI floes that were dispersed over a large area and take longer to melt.

IV. The water between the floes can't compensate the cooling vie insolation farther North in general and at this time of the season when it matters especially.

That would lead to the following assumptions:

a) We need a GAC like event to finish off what's above 85N and exported thicker ice in whatever "Arms" a season will provide after the 1s week of August

b) We need even thinner ice above 85N to be finished off after the 1st week of August

c) We need even earlier open water farther south to give it time to mix better and to compensate
cooling by the ice better, in August and September.

d) Full scale bottom melt will kick in with a slight delay at around now. Looking at old charts there
has often be a certain slowdown in melt and a visible acceleration later on.

e) At least 2 of the 3 conditions from "b" through "d" in case "a" doesn't happen.

My impression is that the lacking solar energy after week 31 can't be easily compensated under the current conditions as "THE" driving factor.

The surprisingly low effect of warmth, wind and waves after week 31 hint into this direction.

Nevertheless the ice will/could soon/once reach a thickness level that allows for a melt-out under average conditions in the time given by the seasonal conditions.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2019, 06:03:49 PM by philopek »

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5811 on: August 18, 2019, 06:08:07 PM »
Conclusion i can't provide but perhaps a few ideas to be falsified so to get closer to the reasons(s)

All seem like good points to me. I wish I knew more about the dependence of heat transfer from air to surface on wind speed, temperature, and humidity. Just how much heat can be transferred from wind alone?

One more point to add to your list: it's generally easier to melt ice in the shallow peripheral seas than the basins.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5812 on: August 18, 2019, 06:18:41 PM »
Heat is high (almost high summer-like ) winds are strong, waves are more than in July due to more open waters, points under attack there are many, hence ice should melt at full speed.

Why don't the numbers fully reflect this?
My guess would be that as total area drops, there is less ice to melt along a decreasing ice edge. The bigger in size something is, the easier it is to get large decreases.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5813 on: August 18, 2019, 06:19:52 PM »
Five day forecast.
I can't get rid of that "error". I tried 3 times, so it must be due to an error in Nullschool.
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philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5814 on: August 18, 2019, 06:27:45 PM »
My guess would be that as total area drops, there is less ice to melt along a decreasing ice edge. The bigger in size something is, the easier it is to get large decreases.

That's is certainly as you say as far as the numbers (your quote) is concerned.

What it does not explain is the often stubborn ice that lingers over weeks, (felt months) like the very smaller reminder in the ESS and the permanently attacked ice in the Beaufort that, agreed, is replenished but there were the replenishment comes from should sooner or later be a huge lack of ice or a huge lead or hole so to say.

This especially applies to the Beaufort export of CAB ice, why is there significant lead opening somewhere in the CAB since we have Fram Export as well as Beaufort export and at times had northerlies into other directions at the same time. where does it come from or better asked why is there no open water somewhere in the middle, why is the ice not quasi ripped apart.

Perhaps it's kind of highly elastic/malleable, at least in relative terms ?

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5815 on: August 18, 2019, 06:33:35 PM »
While ice was exported to Fram and Beaufort, it was replenished a lot of the time from the ESS and Laptev. In addition, the CAA CAB crack was some of the missing ice, and the big holes that appear in the CAB on any cloud-free image are the rest.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5816 on: August 18, 2019, 06:50:01 PM »
My guess would be that as total area drops, there is less ice to melt along a decreasing ice edge. The bigger in size something is, the easier it is to get large decreases.

That's is certainly as you say as far as the numbers (your quote) is concerned.

What it does not explain is the often stubborn ice that lingers over weeks, (felt months) like the very smaller reminder in the ESS and the permanently attacked ice in the Beaufort that, agreed, is replenished but there were the replenishment comes from should sooner or later be a huge lack of ice or a huge lead or hole so to say.

This especially applies to the Beaufort export of CAB ice, why is there significant lead opening somewhere in the CAB since we have Fram Export as well as Beaufort export and at times had northerlies into other directions at the same time. where does it come from or better asked why is there no open water somewhere in the middle, why is the ice not quasi ripped apart.

Perhaps it's kind of highly elastic/malleable, at least in relative terms ?
I'm not at all an "expert" on ice. Far from! But if I had to guess I would say that the entire ice pack "sticks" to Greenland and the CAA like an ice cube sticks to the side of your glass. It just never sits in the middle of the water. My theory is that Greenlands mass pulls the ice towards it. But I guess currents and maybe other factors also help to keep the ice pressed against North America? And that's why all the ice gets lost on the siberian side, while ice gets "squeezed" out like toothpaste on the Beaufort side. But like I said, I am no expert, and all this is pure speculation from my side. I'm sure more knowledgeable people would have something to say about this...

The reason why ice in the ESS can survive for so long is the lack of heat I presume. But I'm as amazed as anyone else to see how long that ice is surviving.

Edit: The coming days the ESS will be hit with lots of wind. So I guess that ice will be gone by next week.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2019, 12:22:48 AM by Freegrass »
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binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5817 on: August 18, 2019, 08:26:52 PM »
It's physical, not metaphysical. Noting is "immediate", not even gravity waves. And ocean waves do not travel at the speed of light. But relative to diffusion, ocean waves do travel extremely quickly.

https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/gravitational-waves/en/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_wave#Physics_of_waves
Well I wasn't talking about waves or even gravity waves. But entanglement is immediate - happens totally simultaneously, with information travelling at infinitely more than the speed of light. But is the melt of Greenland (some 0.5 to 1.0 mm global sea level rise this year) something that happens at the same time everywhere, or does it somehow propagate? I've no idea.
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5818 on: August 18, 2019, 08:34:11 PM »
« Last Edit: August 18, 2019, 09:05:56 PM by petm »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5819 on: August 18, 2019, 08:59:10 PM »
Let's wave goodbye to the off-topic subject.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5820 on: August 18, 2019, 10:18:01 PM »
Weather is what causes the melting of sea ice and glacial ice and it's the initial driver of changes in sea surface heights and ocean currents. All of these things are coupled but weather is the difference between 2019, 2012 and recovery years and the sea ice, SSH and ocean currents integrate the long-term effects of daily weather.

What's interesting and disturbing about 2007, 2010, 2012 and 2019 is the tendency of persistence of weather patterns through theses melt seasons that caused intense losses of sea ice.  2012 was the perfect melt season for melting ice because it switched from hot and sunny in June and July to stormy at the beginning of August. If this year produced a GAC in the last ten days of August, it would have a chance of beating out 2012 for the minimum sea ice extent, but fortunately the forecast storms appear so far to be much weaker than the GAC.

Quantum mechanics is important here because increasing levels of man made greenhouse gases and water are adsorbing outgoing longwave (thermal) radiation and re-emitting heat downwards. Early open water in the Bering and Beaufort seas this year made the effects of high pressure over the Arctic much worse because solar heat was taken up by open water and water vapor was evaporated, reducing radiation losses. The same weather thirty years ago would not have been so destructive to the sea ice because there was thick multiyear ice over the Beaufort sea and the Bring sea was iced over. The high pressure over the Arctic that made Alaska and the Beaufort sea warm this May would have been much colder thirty years ago.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5821 on: August 18, 2019, 10:20:09 PM »
Can anyone explain the cold zone right in the Bering Strait?

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5822 on: August 18, 2019, 11:06:15 PM »
Can anyone explain the cold zone right in the Bering Strait?

Image is from 1800 UTC and I can't see any cold zone in the Bering, please elaborate, best with link and/or image, thanks

Cook

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5823 on: August 18, 2019, 11:17:29 PM »
My theory is that Greenlands mass pulls the ice towards it.

I like your theory, it makes a lot of sense.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5824 on: August 18, 2019, 11:17:56 PM »
It's probably going to take the ice over the CAB to be essentially snow free to melt out in a summer.

We probably need to see land snow cover on the NA Side melt out another 10 days earlier that it ever has so far.

That is very huge since solar Insolation is already near peak when it does melt.
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philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5825 on: August 18, 2019, 11:41:46 PM »
It's probably going to take the ice over the CAB to be essentially snow free to melt out in a summer.

We probably need to see land snow cover on the NA Side melt out another 10 days earlier that it ever has so far.

That is very huge since solar Insolation is already near peak when it does melt.

Good thoughts.

At the end it is most probably a combo of several factors that were mentioned while i don't believe in the Greenland gravitational theory if that were true, Siberia is a way greater mass, hence all the ice would remain there and as we have seen this year, the ice disconnected from Greenland on rather big scale during this 2019 melting season.

Last but not least, the  CAA's "Vestibule" is or at least has been one of keepers for the thickest ice and the land mass in that corner is way smaller than on the Alaskan and the Siberian side.

This does not mean that such effects are zero or don't exist but I do not believe them to be key-factors in the answer to the question at hand.

The image below shows TODAY, not yesterday and the Beaufort arm got about cut in half since before yesterday hence finally the conditions start to show significant effects in that corner of the arctic.

https://kuroshio.eorc.jaxa.jp/JASMES/daily/polar/data/SIC/201908/GW1AM2_20190818B_IC0300_NP.png
« Last Edit: August 18, 2019, 11:52:31 PM by philopek »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5826 on: August 19, 2019, 12:14:19 AM »
This is an article about the gravitational pull of Greenland. I also included a NASA video that shows the lowering of sea levels around Greenland as the ice cap melts, and the gravitational pull weakens. This could also maybe explain why sea levels in Ireland are going up?

Gravitational Attraction of Ice Sheets on the Sea
http://sealevelstudy.org/sea-change-science/whats-in-a-number/attractive-ice-sheets
« Last Edit: August 19, 2019, 12:25:31 AM by Freegrass »
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5827 on: August 19, 2019, 12:47:33 AM »
Interesting how there is a cycle throughout the year with SLR in the N. hemisphere (including Ireland) exceeding the global average in winter and becoming less than average in winter, presumably due to alternating mass loss of Greenland and Antarctica. It also looks like some of the most susceptible areas of Asia, like Bangladesh, are seeing the greatest positive anomalies, and that they coincide with monsoon season.

But once again we're in the wrong thread...

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5828 on: August 19, 2019, 01:15:15 AM »
Sea surface heights respond to air pressure patterns. Sea surface heights and fresh water contents build up under the Beaufort high when in a year with strong high pressure and the heights lower and the fresh water drains under lower pressure. You might consider it like breathing in and out, but it's fresh water content. The low pressure years are generally cooler and are often viewed as recovery years. However, they make it possible for the warm high pressure years to build up melt water under the center of high and pull up warmer water from below on the continental shelf margins.

The process of warming and ice loss takes many summers and the apparent recovery years enable the years of large losses.

A similar situation happens with Greenland melting but there's also an annual cycle caused by thermal expansion/contraction and much higher pressure in the summer than in the winter. The intense winter Greenland sea low pressure pattern spins water out of the region. One melt season doesn't change the gravitational situation very much, but the Grace satellites are very sensitive.

Let me reemphasize, that weather is the key here although there are many other things going on.

Yes, the heavy snowfall last winter melted out slowly, keeping the albedo high over the NH continents and that lowered the ice volume losses this year. I'm pretty sure 2012 had less snow cover than this year and that was a factor in the record low extent.
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_vis.php?ui_year=2012&ui_month=4&ui_set=2
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_vis.php?ui_year=2012&ui_month=5&ui_set=2
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_vis.php?ui_year=2019&ui_month=4&ui_set=2
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_vis.php?ui_year=2019&ui_month=5&ui_set=2
« Last Edit: August 19, 2019, 01:35:16 AM by FishOutofWater »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5829 on: August 19, 2019, 01:24:54 AM »
I did say a month or so ago that the central ice was more solid/less dispersed than it was in 2012, so am not overly surprised at the melt slow down as the much weaker ice on the periphery has melted out.  Still the Laptev/Kara sector is being hit hard and is looking a bit weak now, and I wouldn't rule out rapid losses that depending on how next week's forecast plays out.  Record looks unlikely, but not quite ready to say its all over.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5831 on: August 19, 2019, 01:56:23 AM »
This is an article about the gravitational pull of Greenland. I also included a NASA video that shows the lowering of sea levels around Greenland as the ice cap melts, and the gravitational pull weakens. This could also maybe explain why sea levels in Ireland are going up?

Gravitational Attraction of Ice Sheets on the Sea
http://sealevelstudy.org/sea-change-science/whats-in-a-number/attractive-ice-sheets

We're getting OT again but I say greenland is raising and not the water is lowering, i discussed this before over many years and never reached consensus. Those who believe some theories and papers as sacrosanct cannot be convinced and the same with the other side.

Either way thanks for the input, never wrong to document a point.

END OT

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5832 on: August 19, 2019, 02:00:04 AM »
cold zone in strait

http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/sst_plot.html?i=17&j=1

SST now I know what you mean, thanks but can't answer, must be kind of up-welling and currents.
After all the waters that enter trhough there are accelerated and in parts coming from depth to the shallow waters of the straight. Probably something like that but i'm sure that there are experts here who can explain it accurately and in correct terms.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5833 on: August 19, 2019, 02:15:54 AM »
This is an article about the gravitational pull of Greenland. I also included a NASA video that shows the lowering of sea levels around Greenland as the ice cap melts, and the gravitational pull weakens. This could also maybe explain why sea levels in Ireland are going up?

Gravitational Attraction of Ice Sheets on the Sea
http://sealevelstudy.org/sea-change-science/whats-in-a-number/attractive-ice-sheets

We're getting OT again but I say greenland is raising and not the water is lowering, i discussed this before over many years and never reached consensus. Those who believe some theories and papers as sacrosanct cannot be convinced and the same with the other side.

Either way thanks for the input, never wrong to document a point.
Hi philopek. I agree that sea level changes because of the gravity of Greenland is totally OT, but the reason I posted this was to prove that the Greenland ice sheet does have a large gravitational pull on things. And so the point I'm making is that it's not unreasonable to think that the Greenland ice sheet is "pulling" on ice that's floating on the arctic ocean. It's like 2 ice cubes sticking together. This would explain why MYI can always be found closest to the North American coast. I believe that's because the largest ice mass is located on the pole. And the pole is located closest to Greenland. So I can't imagine that these two ice massas wouldn't have a pull on eachother.

A counterclaim to my theory is that water has more mass than ice. That's why ice floats, right? And so why would Greenland attract the ice instead of the more massive water?

I'm not sure this is entirely OT. It probably is a little, but it belongs in the melting season I think because my theory does have an effect on ice movement. But I'd be happy to discuss this somewhere else.
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philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5834 on: August 19, 2019, 02:23:10 AM »
Hi philopek. I agree that sea level changes because of the gravity of Greenland is totally OT, but the reason I posted this was to prove that the Greenland ice sheet does have a large gravitational pull on things. And so the point I'm making is that it's not unreasonable to think that the Greenland ice sheet is "pulling" on ice that's floating on the arctic ocean. It's like 2 ice cubes sticking together. This would explain why MYI can always be found closest to the North American coast. I believe that's because the largest ice mass is located on the pole. And the pole is located closest to Greenland. So I can't imagine that these two ice massas wouldn't have a pull on eachother.

A counterclaim to my theory is that water has more mass than ice. That's why ice floats, right? And so why would Greenland attract the ice instead of the more massive water?

I'm not sure this is entirely OT. It probably is a little, but it belongs in the melting season I think because my theory does have an effect on ice movement. But I'd be happy to discuss this somewhere else.

All good, i said WE are going OT not just you which means i have to learn to keep OT to the minimum. I love full scale discussions but for others it's venomous and therefore causing too much trouble for too many, sure you know what i mean.

 8)
« Last Edit: August 19, 2019, 02:40:10 AM by philopek »

UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5835 on: August 19, 2019, 02:24:07 AM »
Aluminium and Petm's last animations show a significant retreat of the Atlantic pack edge north of the Barents over the past five days - likely the result of the strong low pressure that was parked there. I suspect it was mostly compaction with the strong wind from the south, but probably also a fair amount of melt.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5836 on: August 19, 2019, 03:00:36 AM »
Big dent in the Laptev ice.

https://go.nasa.gov/2P3MeiN
« Last Edit: August 19, 2019, 04:45:09 AM by Freegrass »
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peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5837 on: August 19, 2019, 03:44:01 AM »
The CAA and the Beaufort region seems to connect with each other by surface water current. The high SST anamoly maybe becomes stronger due to this connection. The ice in these region is torching. We will see more dispersed ice. Aug16th-Aug18th.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2019, 04:14:25 AM by peterlvmeng »

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5838 on: August 19, 2019, 03:49:50 AM »
Just before cold air dominates the Arctic, this beautiful inverted dipole promises 40-80 km/h winds over the Laptev-ESS side for a couple of day. This is Thursday according to ECMWF.

assuming that the pressure gradient is 3000 Pa over 1 million meters, and that this is near enough to the NP, then the associated geostrophic wind is 3600x24/4/pi x 3000/1000000 = 20 m/s ~ 40 knot ~ 80 km/h, that’s a max. limit, near the surface it will drop considerably

As well as wind temps will be well over 0 and dewpoints of 0-3C the next few days over the Laptev sector and eastern Atlantic front, where the ice is looking bad, melting and dispersed and very grey. While freezing altitudes are up to 3km, there will be thick cloud so I am imagine a substantial longwave flux as vapour condenses within them, there's up to 30kg/m2 in these pulses coming in. Bremen's 'daygrid swathe' temporary shows holes appearing in the Laptev ice north west of the bite, so I guess they'll also be in their final AMSR2 for today

The Atlantic front is being turned by the conditions, advancing( into warm SSTs) around Svalbard, and rapidly retreating further east

I've attached an image of the Laptev sector, and one of ice east of Svalbard, and a gif of thinning ice north of the Laptev bite from 13-18August, doubleframed on the 18th, and skipping the 17th as it was solid cloud. I've also included Windy's dewpoint(not temperature - temps are generally about 0.5C higher!) forecast for thursday

Keep the forecasts coming Freegrass. It would be great though if we could collectively work out how to embed movies (eg MP4, avi) when possible rather than GIFs, which are great for encoding 8bit data, but don't compress efficiently. It would help limit server costs and energy consumption, and also those of us with crap internet connections. I've had difficulty in embedding them directly, I'll try using youtube sometime soon

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5839 on: August 19, 2019, 05:12:40 AM »
Two weeks away and well within play is the 2016 ASTONISHING record low areas for global ice.  I'd say that over the last 12 months roughly 9 of those months were spent in 1st-to-3rd place.  IF WE ARE GOING  TO SET NEW RECORDS EVERY THREE YEARS... does that qualify as a collapse?? 

I was kinda thinking along the line of friv today just guessing how much longer it would take to melt all out.  That's a lot of ice left... I'd be thinking you'd need another six weeks at least or the equivalent such as what's been happening in the Bering and Chukchi seas... The bottom dropped out on ESS and itself seems to be about three weeks early.  When MAX goes down/or drops like it did this year to a good 500K below average early, THAT might do it???
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oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5840 on: August 19, 2019, 05:17:42 AM »
I'm not sure this is entirely OT. It probably is a little, but it belongs in the melting season I think because my theory does have an effect on ice movement. But I'd be happy to discuss this somewhere else.
It is not only repeatedly offtopic but also untrue. I am responding in the meaningless chatter thread.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2274.msg223165.html#msg223165
« Last Edit: August 19, 2019, 07:04:53 AM by oren »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5841 on: August 19, 2019, 05:18:31 AM »
Keep the forecasts coming Freegrass. It would be great though if we could collectively work out how to embed movies (eg MP4, avi) when possible rather than GIFs, which are great for encoding 8bit data, but don't compress efficiently. It would help limit server costs and energy consumption, and also those of us with crap internet connections. I've had difficulty in embedding them directly, I'll try using youtube sometime soon

I've looked around on the website of this forum, and it should be possible to embed videos, but I think Neven needs to allow it by changing a setting.
https://support.createaforum.com/index.php?action=search2;PHPSESSID=c92f150911c42763f2f2413907355b20

Anyway... Here's an updated version of the five day forecast. There's been an interesting development over the CAA, where that storm that smached itself to pieces on the Alaskan coast is reorganising itself on the other side over the CAA. 976 hPa is pretty low, and it seems to be strengthening. This could get interesting in the coming days!
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5842 on: August 19, 2019, 05:45:34 AM »
Aug 5-18 (2 weeks)

Quite a few gaps opened today at the ice edge on the Asian side, both Laptev and ESS. Parry Channel in CAA may be weakening, or is this due to (lack of) cloud?

By the way, allow me to make a very insightful prediction about next year (and every year): The CAB ice will be higher concentration and more difficult to melt than the periphery. I will be back in year to say I told you so.  ::)

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5843 on: August 19, 2019, 07:56:49 AM »
Anyway... Here's an updated version of the five day forecast. There's been an interesting development over the CAA, where that storm that smached itself to pieces on the Alaskan coast is reorganising itself on the other side over the CAA. 976 hPa is pretty low, and it seems to be strengthening. This could get interesting in the coming days!
976hPa is a serious storm, especially in contrast to the high pressure domes elsewhere over the region.

Depending on location and duration, this could stir up some heat from depth.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5844 on: August 19, 2019, 08:06:51 AM »
 
Other items of note - the neutral el nino continues to slowly diminish and may turn into a la nina...I live on an island off the coast of Washington and I con confirm that the Pacific does feel quite warm at the moment.

I've been to Orcas Island a number of times, very beautiful indeed. 

I have been to the Oregon coast this summer and the water does feel very warm.  Sea life looks stressed or absent as well.  If large quantities of heat in the Pacific Ocean from this region get carried into the Arctic the freezing season this winter likely would be impacted and not in a good way.

Very saddening.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2019, 08:31:52 AM by VaughnAn »

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5845 on: August 19, 2019, 08:45:53 AM »
A fractal swirl of more concentrated ice north of the the ESS gets stirred over the past week-now it being pushed into the warm SSTs in the wetern Beaufort Sea

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5846 on: August 19, 2019, 08:57:28 AM »
Anyway... Here's an updated version of the five day forecast. There's been an interesting development over the CAA, where that storm that smached itself to pieces on the Alaskan coast is reorganising itself on the other side over the CAA. 976 hPa is pretty low, and it seems to be strengthening. This could get interesting in the coming days!
976hPa is a serious storm, especially in contrast to the high pressure domes elsewhere over the region.

Depending on location and duration, this could stir up some heat from depth.

The storm over the CAA has been in the forecasts consistently for a few days now and like Freegrass says seems to becoming stronger as it gets a bit closer. The GFS is getting keener on the idea of increasing storminess in the basin after that, but flipping around as to where a low will intensify, currently it thinks a low will drop to around 980 between the Beaufort and CAB late in thge forecast, and current EC on Windy pretty much agrees

Iain

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5847 on: August 19, 2019, 01:16:16 PM »
Southward movement has restarted in Nares and between some of the Islands of the CAA: Borden, Ellef Ringes, Meighen and Ellesmere, also the South end of Parry Channel
Map here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_Archipelago

Wind has been light over the last few days (Gif is for 15th to 18th Aug) so this is this is mostly ocean current driven.

South of the floes is clear blue ocean, so the potential for export over the next 6 weeks (2 w past the expected minimum date) is high.
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tolfer10

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5848 on: August 19, 2019, 02:31:07 PM »
<snip>

End OT.


<I like how everyone is now using 'End OT' as an excuse to write just one more off-topic comment.  :D Anyway, I've moved your comment to this thread; N.>
« Last Edit: August 19, 2019, 03:57:42 PM by Neven »

bill kapra

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5849 on: August 19, 2019, 04:45:32 PM »
A fractal swirl of more concentrated ice north of the the ESS gets stirred over the past week-now it being pushed into the warm SSTs in the wetern Beaufort Sea

I think that the fractal nature of dispersing ice is a key factor that may bollix up our analyses.

While both area and extent seem like simple enough measures that they can ignore surface geometry, each struggles to capture the structural complexity of boundary and edges. (Compare, for example, a simple shape occupying 15% of a pixel vs a highly dispersed set of blobs — the latter has a far greater edge length exposed. A fractal increases that edge even more).

These fractal swirls could also have really interesting impact on metling/refreezing dynamics and on the subsequent makeup of myi.

Does anyone have citations of studies on these structures and their dynamics?

If I had to guess, I’d say that, to the extent we see structures like this, the ice is in worse shape than extent and area numbers suggest.