In the Laptev sector, another day with little detected change in concentration, despite continued heat. Is this ice too thick to respond this year (in terms of extent)? On the Pacific side, as noted by others, advection southward is being largely offset by melt, while on the Atlantic side, northward advection and melt continues. Fram export is accelerating.
You're touching a point here that makes me think since some time and has done so in earlier years.
Conclusion i can't provide but perhaps a few ideas to be falsified so to get closer to the reasons(s)
Heat is high (almost high summer-like ) winds are strong, waves are more than in July due to more open waters, points under attack there are many, hence ice should melt at full speed.
Why don't the numbers fully reflect this?
I. One possible answer and my favorite is that insolation can be replaced by nothing that's there.
means, winds over ice at 1-3C don't do the job nearly as well as a decent portion of sunlight at a decent angle under clear skies.
II. Dispersion is kind of camouflaging what happens, but then there are spots where we can see quite well from time to time what's up and it's not as close to melt-out as one could expect.
III. Ice has been made of already melted first year ice that served as kind of glue and quite many MYI floes that were dispersed over a large area and take longer to melt.
IV. The water between the floes can't compensate the cooling vie insolation farther North in general and at this time of the season when it matters especially.
That would lead to the following assumptions:
a) We need a GAC like event to finish off what's above 85N and exported thicker ice in whatever "Arms" a season will provide after the 1s week of August
b) We need even thinner ice above 85N to be finished off after the 1st week of August
c) We need even earlier open water farther south to give it time to mix better and to compensate
cooling by the ice better, in August and September.
d) Full scale bottom melt will kick in with a slight delay at around now. Looking at old charts there
has often be a certain slowdown in melt and a visible acceleration later on.
e) At least 2 of the 3 conditions from "b" through "d" in case "a" doesn't happen.
My impression is that the lacking solar energy after week 31 can't be easily compensated under the current conditions as "THE" driving factor.
The surprisingly low effect of warmth, wind and waves after week 31 hint into this direction.
Nevertheless the ice will/could soon/once reach a thickness level that allows for a melt-out under average conditions in the time given by the seasonal conditions.