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subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5900 on: August 21, 2019, 06:02:42 AM »
Am I going crazy or is there a LOT of ice being exported thru the Fram and Svalbard right now? I feel like not that long ago the area was *somewhat* surrounded by blue water (except north) and now I see lots of ice being pushed into the region. Maybe I'm confused or misread what I saw earlier.
A lot of ice has been pushed either side of Svalbard, and 20 knot winds from a passing low will continue that over the next24 hrs. So much that some(a lot?) of the ice to Svalbard's east is very likely to survive into the freezing season (though it may melt then, especially if it travels any further south. Along Svalbard's north coast and especially to the west west the water is much warmer, any thing pushed there will melt

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5901 on: August 21, 2019, 06:25:16 AM »
Another of this season's weird extent loss slowdowns (eg the heatwave in June saw an absolute flatlining!) continues, only 20000km2 lost today on the JAXA graph, after 30K yesterday, now 370000km2 behind 2012 and about the same in front of 2016. Losses must pick up again though. 2016 and 2012 both lost ~900K after this date(which surely puts 2016 out of running for 2nd, its minimum now only 490K away.)

Bremen though has 2019and 2012 still neck and neck on the extent graph(and it is higher resolution), and on the corresponding map little holes are starting to appear in the interior of the Laptev sector, as the gossamer shreds in the warm breeze after near continuous dispersal,. With the storms on the horizon there could still be a few big days ahead, with considerablelosses just before the cold descends, like 2016

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5902 on: August 21, 2019, 07:36:07 AM »
The storm has shifted a little towards Ellesmere island, which seems to have taken the sharp edge of this storm. Strong winds over M'Clure Strait have diminished significantly, making it doubtful that the channels will be cleared. The biggest problem I see now is the huge wind field, which will probably cause a lot of dispersion. And it looks like the cyclone that came off Norway is strengthening. Feeding off the CAA storm?

Reminder; This is all new for me! I'm a complete amateur who's still learning. So always take my analysis with a big bag of salt! Making these videos will surely help me to learn more quickly. Enjoy!
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Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5903 on: August 21, 2019, 08:03:45 AM »
Maybe in trying to understand 2019 we should be looking to a pattern shared by other melt seasons. Here's an example. There are others that fit this pattern. This may be the "default" for a typical melt season.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5904 on: August 21, 2019, 08:21:25 AM »
Reminder; This is all new for me! I'm a complete amateur who's still learning. So always take my analysis with a big bag of salt! Making these videos will surely help me to learn more quickly. Enjoy!
I think they are great, but if it was me I would choose the "Temp" setting, which shows both wind and temperature.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5905 on: August 21, 2019, 08:34:21 AM »
Reminder; This is all new for me! I'm a complete amateur who's still learning. So always take my analysis with a big bag of salt! Making these videos will surely help me to learn more quickly. Enjoy!
I think they are great, but if it was me I would choose the "Temp" setting, which shows both wind and temperature.
I like the wind setting because it shows the strength of the wind better. But I hear ya! I'll make some with temp setting as well. I would love to add the rain as overlay in those, but I still have to figure out how to do that quickly. I'm using GIMP now as well to make Gifs, so in time I'll figure it out.

Just now I was updating my brain with the basics of weather. This old school educational movie was brilliant!

Edit; WOW! Embedded movies now? :)
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Jontenoy

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5906 on: August 21, 2019, 08:35:26 AM »
Given the likelihood of storms churning up various sections of the Arctic this week, can anyone make a guess as to the energy input from kinetic energy conversion to heat on the surface ? Is this comparable to heat brought to the surface from mixing ?

grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5907 on: August 21, 2019, 09:30:09 AM »
PIOMAS data is out, see separate thread.

Melt momentum still looks strong and we're barely behind 2012 even post-GAC. A record low may still be possible depending on weather

RikW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5908 on: August 21, 2019, 09:59:14 AM »
Yeah, the difference between 2012 en 2019 is small and a huge cap with all other years; Based on this I expect that area/extent numbers will continue to show at least average drops. Low Volume should become visible in extent/area I'd say

Paul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5909 on: August 21, 2019, 11:52:49 AM »
Another of this season's weird extent loss slowdowns (eg the heatwave in June saw an absolute flatlining!) continues, only 20000km2 lost today on the JAXA graph, after 30K yesterday, now 370000km2 behind 2012 and about the same in front of 2016. Losses must pick up again though. 2016 and 2012 both lost ~900K after this date(which surely puts 2016 out of running for 2nd, its minimum now only 490K away.)

Bremen though has 2019and 2012 still neck and neck on the extent graph(and it is higher resolution), and on the corresponding map little holes are starting to appear in the interior of the Laptev sector, as the gossamer shreds in the warm breeze after near continuous dispersal,. With the storms on the horizon there could still be a few big days ahead, with considerablelosses just before the cold descends, like 2016

I disagree, conditions coming up is the total opposite of 2016 where after a cold spell came one of the most impressive and strongest dipoles I have ever seen which destroyed the last parts of the Wrangel arm ice and forced true open water well far northwards. I think Nevan did a blog post on this event back then also? It must be noted that open water did not last long mind in September hence the earlyish refreeze but it no doubt the open water getting far Northwards and the continued retreat of the Wrangel arm helped with the above average losses at the end of August and start of September that year.

No doubt extent will continue to fall and I think because of all the momentum and how low we are then an extent under 4 million is quite likely imo which is newsworthy in itself. All will be revealed in a couple of weeks.

Iain

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5910 on: August 21, 2019, 01:03:24 PM »
West end of the CAA: New cracking along the East coast of Victoria I and the adjacent bay. The storm coming on Fri/Sat  will shake things up.
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5911 on: August 21, 2019, 01:58:52 PM »
Melt momentum is currently average/ below the decadal-average

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5912 on: August 21, 2019, 02:08:30 PM »
Melt momentum is currently average/ below the decadal-average
I think you mean "rate of extent decline" rather than "melting momentum" - the momentum could well be significant, while rate of decline is low. In that case, the rate of decline should pick up later.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5913 on: August 21, 2019, 02:20:43 PM »
Very true

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5914 on: August 21, 2019, 02:52:16 PM »

I have ever seen which destroyed the last parts of the Wrangel arm ice ....

There was a lot of ice of the Wrangle-Arm left in 2016

Also you I don't share most of you further assumptions

If higher resolution shows lower extent you can expect that as soon as lower resolution is able to see through it numbers will drop like a stone and exactly as SubG says, some extra wind could well trigger such an event quickly and 3 weeks to go can do the job slowly, either way I expect some correction of the recent slow down b 1-3 around century drops (80-120k)

Below map is from highest available resolution, hence the data that you prefer and base your statement upon would show significantly more ice on the same date. (the date of minimum 2016)

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5915 on: August 21, 2019, 07:02:32 PM »

isn't early season snow good for slowing ice loss but increases long term heat retention?

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5916 on: August 21, 2019, 08:49:00 PM »
Surface temperatures among the ice in the "Karptev sea" (Kara/Laptev sea) are still up, and they've also gone up all along the way of the Siberian ice edge... I wonder what the current winds will do to that Siberian ice edge...
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Greenbelt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5917 on: August 21, 2019, 08:55:36 PM »
Seems like a 980mb low in the central Arctic on day 4 would do more to stir up vulnerable ice than a 970mb low in the CAA on day 2?  My hunch is this storm won't be persistent enough to really get the ice moving and the thermoclines mixing, but I am always surprised...

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5918 on: August 21, 2019, 09:24:07 PM »
Agree with Greenbelt. The 970 mPa low will move things on the CAA channels but the part open-ocean big fat 980 mPa can do serious stuff along the broken ice, I guess.
Overlaid todays Bremen to last ECWF Friday and Sunday forecasts
Sorry for image compression
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aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5919 on: August 21, 2019, 09:48:53 PM »
This is the same low, or the same complex if one prefers. And IFS has output only every 24h. I don't have the exact evolution of SLP at end but this model is forecasting SLP lower than 980 hPa over central Arctic (GFS is at 978 hPa at 75h, a forecast time not available over internet for IFS to my knowledge). And it is not only about the minimum SLP but also about gradient, with a strong ridge on the Atlantic side, and multiple low centres interacting together. And it is also about Beaufort, as it is likely that the vertical stability of the Ocean column is weaker than in 2012. By the way, GFS, after a good fight up to this morning, has surender, so again it is way more likely that the models are under estimating this thing. Attached is the forecast 980hPa cyclone in 2019, and the 2012 GAC at 980hPa. We are not yet to the point where we can compare this low to the 2012 GAC, but this is going to be really, really bad for Beaufort sea and more generally for Arctic. Hope the best, but be ready. At 72h-96h lead time there is still time for loosing hPa.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5920 on: August 21, 2019, 10:05:43 PM »
IFS has output only every 24h.
Nullschool every 3 hours...

I wish there would be a Euro Nullschool, because we're way better with our weather predictions in Europe than the Americans are...



Nothing like bashing Americannots on your century post!  ;D ;D ;D 8)
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u300673

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5921 on: August 21, 2019, 10:15:28 PM »
a forecast time not available over internet for IFS to my knowledge

ECMWF forecasts every 3 hours can be found here:
https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/nordpol/luftdruck/20190825-1200z.html

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5922 on: August 21, 2019, 10:44:55 PM »
a forecast time not available over internet for IFS to my knowledge

ECMWF forecasts every 3 hours can be found here:
https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/nordpol/luftdruck/20190825-1200z.html

Thanks, not aware of this site. Crazy that they even have it every hour. Like what everything is available over internet...

IFS has output only every 24h.
Nullschool every 3 hours...

I wish there would be a Euro Nullschool, because we're way better with our weather predictions in Europe than the Americans are...



Nothing like bashing Americannots on your century post!  ;D ;D ;D 8)

Yes good job ^^ joke aside, GFS has been really behind the curve lately.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5923 on: August 21, 2019, 11:18:59 PM »
Yes good job ^^ joke aside, GFS has been really behind the curve lately.
What's a GFS?
So much to learn...

I'm the kind of person that doesn't give a damn about the details... Day to day predictions and comparisons are fun to do, and they allow people to have paychecks... But in the long run, they are absolutely useless... It's the long term trend that's gonna kill us. Everything else is noise... We all know where this is heading, right? So stop searching! And start shouting!!!!

Maybe we need a BOE to wake up people? But what's the use of getting up after you've realized you've already pissed your pants?
« Last Edit: August 22, 2019, 12:52:28 AM by Freegrass »
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Greenbelt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5924 on: August 22, 2019, 12:06:38 AM »
Yes good job ^^ joke aside, GFS has been really behind the curve lately.
What's a GFS?
It's the U.S. Global Forecast System, the computer weather model that drives the nullschool illustrations.
If you look at the nullschool menu bar you see this:  Source | GFS / NCEP / US National Weather Service

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5925 on: August 22, 2019, 12:23:45 AM »
The ice is unusually still.


gandul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5926 on: August 22, 2019, 12:24:32 AM »

I have ever seen which destroyed the last parts of the Wrangel arm ice ....

There was a lot of ice of the Wrangle-Arm left in 2016

That’s not a lot of ice left. That was insignificant and, after a quick core refreeze, 2016 was slow refreeze to the extreme.
the remains of Big Block and the tip of Wrangel arm continued bottom melting until end of September, and probably October. I bet not much left.
What were we talking about anyway?
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gandul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5927 on: August 22, 2019, 12:26:23 AM »
The ice is unusually still.


Eolo: hold my beer
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5928 on: August 22, 2019, 12:56:56 AM »
Pretty tight isobars over the CAB around that 980 low. The winds will be racing over the low concentration ice in the CAB on the Laptev side. Going to churn it up good and push the edge towards the warm waters in the Laptev. Paradoxically, it may slow SIE declines even more while doing serious damage to the ice.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5929 on: August 22, 2019, 01:02:41 AM »
Yes good job ^^ joke aside, GFS has been really behind the curve lately.
What's a GFS?
It's the U.S. Global Forecast System, the computer weather model that drives the nullschool illustrations.
Right on! Thanks Greenbelt!
When I was tracking Hurricanes in the past few years, the GFS (Nullschool) model was usually more "off" than the European models. But overall, the Nullschool model does it's job. It's not that we have to resque polar bears or something... ;)
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sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5930 on: August 22, 2019, 01:34:33 AM »
Pretty tight isobars over the CAB around that 980 low. The winds will be racing over the low concentration ice in the CAB on the Laptev side. Going to churn it up good and push the edge towards the warm waters in the Laptev. Paradoxically, it may slow SIE declines even more while doing serious damage to the ice.
And waves too. Windy.tv can use the European or the GFS.
In this case predicts these waves on Sunday. Also expects more than 70 km/h winds in the CAA channels Friday and Saturday!
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jjj18641

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5931 on: August 22, 2019, 02:19:23 AM »
Reminder; This is all new for me! I'm a complete amateur who's still learning. So always take my analysis with a big bag of salt! Making these videos will surely help me to learn more quickly. Enjoy!
I think they are great, but if it was me I would choose the "Temp" setting, which shows both wind and temperature.
I like the wind setting because it shows the strength of the wind better. But I hear ya! I'll make some with temp setting as well. I would love to add the rain as overlay in those, but I still have to figure out how to do that quickly. I'm using GIMP now as well to make Gifs, so in time I'll figure it out.

Just now I was updating my brain with the basics of weather. This old school educational movie was brilliant!

Edit; WOW! Embedded movies now? :)

Thanks for sharing that video...learned a couple things I didn't know.

Renerpho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5932 on: August 22, 2019, 03:16:51 AM »
Six weeks of SST anomalies.

Yes, some of the deep red is explained by regions that have melted out earlier than usual, resulting in anomalies to spike as soon as the ice is gone... But it is still frightening how consistent and wide spread the red is. There is almost no place on this hemisphere where SST's aren't well above average.

If anyone has got the images before June 26, I'd be interested to get my hands on those.

(I have optimized the file with ezgif, decreasing size by >50%. If there's a better way to do it, let me know.)

Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5933 on: August 22, 2019, 04:37:04 AM »
Strong warm winds will begin entering the CAA in about 12 hours (fig 1).

Also, over the last 4 days, the Euro forecast for Friday (12z) has strengthened steadily from 988 to 970 (fig 2; click). Meanwhile, the GFS has jumped around between ~980 and 970 (fig 3; click), settling on 975 for the latest value (down to 971 for Sat 00z, not shown).

Hopefully things will get interesting again.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2019, 05:17:25 AM by petm »

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5934 on: August 22, 2019, 05:28:16 AM »
Aug 15-21

Atlantic-side compaction.

charles_oil

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5935 on: August 22, 2019, 06:17:15 AM »
PETM - What do left and right sides represent?  Thanks

Paul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5936 on: August 22, 2019, 08:52:03 AM »
This is the same low, or the same complex if one prefers. And IFS has output only every 24h. I don't have the exact evolution of SLP at end but this model is forecasting SLP lower than 980 hPa over central Arctic (GFS is at 978 hPa at 75h, a forecast time not available over internet for IFS to my knowledge). And it is not only about the minimum SLP but also about gradient, with a strong ridge on the Atlantic side, and multiple low centres interacting together. And it is also about Beaufort, as it is likely that the vertical stability of the Ocean column is weaker than in 2012. By the way, GFS, after a good fight up to this morning, has surender, so again it is way more likely that the models are under estimating this thing. Attached is the forecast 980hPa cyclone in 2019, and the 2012 GAC at 980hPa. We are not yet to the point where we can compare this low to the 2012 GAC, but this is going to be really, really bad for Beaufort sea and more generally for Arctic. Hope the best, but be ready. At 72h-96h lead time there is still time for loosing hPa.

But you can't possibly compare this low to the one in 2012 though as its a totally different set up.

First things first, the low in 2012 originated from Siberia so on its Western flank, there was warm air heading northwards towards the pole, this low is coming from Alaska/CAA and on its Eastern flank is cold air heading southwards. The warm air mixing in the circulation probably what caused the rapid development in 2012. Also the low in 2012 crossed over thin ice just at the right time and area which split the ice pack and what resulted in the dramatic extent losses, this low is crossing a ice pack which is not as thin as that was and nor is this low is as deep so its affects on the ice in theory should be minimal. It will be interesting too see how the ice reacts on the CAA and Greenland coasts with such strong winds.

I suppose never rule anything out these days but in the past, this set up should mean a rapid slow down in ice extent and some freezing of any diffuse ice in the CAB.

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5937 on: August 22, 2019, 08:55:24 AM »
Models are concerning. The american and the euro boy are showing the possibility of a new thermal wave building day 7 - day 10 for a third round. IFS has probably gone made with a 980 hPa low over Beaufort at D 7. But GFS has the same idea. Even though, overall, the cyclogenesis fail, this boy is still trying something with a new stream coming from the american continent again. Energy will perhaps not been exhausted after a two punches low. For the moment, the low is still forecasted to weaken and spin down, but who knows? This said, this does not preclude a new ridge coming from the Siberia.

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5938 on: August 22, 2019, 09:04:49 AM »
This is the same low, or the same complex if one prefers. And IFS has output only every 24h. I don't have the exact evolution of SLP at end but this model is forecasting SLP lower than 980 hPa over central Arctic (GFS is at 978 hPa at 75h, a forecast time not available over internet for IFS to my knowledge). And it is not only about the minimum SLP but also about gradient, with a strong ridge on the Atlantic side, and multiple low centres interacting together. And it is also about Beaufort, as it is likely that the vertical stability of the Ocean column is weaker than in 2012. By the way, GFS, after a good fight up to this morning, has surender, so again it is way more likely that the models are under estimating this thing. Attached is the forecast 980hPa cyclone in 2019, and the 2012 GAC at 980hPa. We are not yet to the point where we can compare this low to the 2012 GAC, but this is going to be really, really bad for Beaufort sea and more generally for Arctic. Hope the best, but be ready. At 72h-96h lead time there is still time for loosing hPa.

But you can't possibly compare this low to the one in 2012 though as its a totally different set up.

First things first, the low in 2012 originated from Siberia so on its Western flank, there was warm air heading northwards towards the pole, this low is coming from Alaska/CAA and on its Eastern flank is cold air heading southwards. The warm air mixing in the circulation probably what caused the rapid development in 2012. Also the low in 2012 crossed over thin ice just at the right time and area which split the ice pack and what resulted in the dramatic extent losses, this low is crossing a ice pack which is not as thin as that was and nor is this low is as deep so its affects on the ice in theory should be minimal. It will be interesting too see how the ice reacts on the CAA and Greenland coasts with such strong winds.

I suppose never rule anything out these days but in the past, this set up should mean a rapid slow down in ice extent and some freezing of any diffuse ice in the CAB.

There is also a warm belt from Siberia, from the ridge over the coast. This also explains why the low is not as strong as in 2012 or 2016 from the point of min SLP. But min SLP is not the whole story, two 980 hPa lows playing together is not necessarily better than a big one at 965 hPa. Here, there is really multiple thermal waves with different sets of warm / cold fronts, with multiple warm belt feeding into the lows.

P.S. I have tried hard without success, but I will still show a sounding from GFS over ESS for Friday. I am showing this sounding, because at the same time IFS is showing an even steeper profile, with some weak mid level instability between 850 and 500 hPa. Here, GFS is a bit marginal. But nonetheless this is showing that there is a true warm belt feeding into the low from the siberian side (by the way, and again, this is also why the forecasted low from IFS is still bigger and stronger than the low from GFS).
« Last Edit: August 22, 2019, 09:43:09 AM by aslan »

AndyW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5939 on: August 22, 2019, 09:20:08 AM »
I doubt this storm will provide much melt,  it is both geographically and temporally in the wrong place for a large melt caused by dispersion or compaction.

The 2012 storm was earlier and over the central Arctic  while this is later and mainly over land.

I'm new to this board and while there is a fantastic amount of data and science on here it surprises me that there is so much desire for melt and records rather than just watching it and learning; it should be about what happens, or potentially happens, not what you want to happen.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5940 on: August 22, 2019, 09:24:41 AM »
August 17-21.

2018.

Wherestheice

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5941 on: August 22, 2019, 09:35:10 AM »
I doubt this storm will provide much melt,  it is both geographically and temporally in the wrong place for a large melt caused by dispersion or compaction.

The 2012 storm was earlier and over the central Arctic  while this is later and mainly over land.

I'm new to this board and while there is a fantastic amount of data and science on here it surprises me that there is so much desire for melt and records rather than just watching it and learning; it should be about what happens, or potentially happens, not what you want to happen.

From what I can tell, I don't believe many here WANT record lows and melt. Because many here understand what that means for the planet. I think really what it is about is interest.
"When the ice goes..... F***

gandul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5942 on: August 22, 2019, 12:01:19 PM »
I doubt this storm will provide much melt,  it is both geographically and temporally in the wrong place for a large melt caused by dispersion or compaction.

The 2012 storm was earlier and over the central Arctic  while this is later and mainly over land.

I'm new to this board and while there is a fantastic amount of data and science on here it surprises me that there is so much desire for melt and records rather than just watching it and learning; it should be about what happens, or potentially happens, not what you want to happen.
Yes we are sick and illiterate, thank you for your diagnosis.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2019, 03:28:51 PM by gandul »
No me lo trago

Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5943 on: August 22, 2019, 01:48:19 PM »
I doubt this storm will provide much melt,  it is both geographically and temporally in the wrong place for a large melt caused by dispersion or compaction.

The 2012 storm was earlier and over the central Arctic  while this is later and mainly over land.

I'm new to this board and while there is a fantastic amount of data and science on here it surprises me that there is so much desire for melt and records rather than just watching it and learning; it should be about what happens, or potentially happens, not what you want to happen.

From what I can tell, I don't believe many here WANT record lows and melt. Because many here understand what that means for the planet. I think really what it is about is interest.

For the most part, I think you are correct.  However, there have been some poster who believe that the only way real action on climate change will be taken is for dramatic changes, such as record lows Arctic sea ice.  Hence, I get the impression that there are those who would like to see a new record low.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5944 on: August 22, 2019, 02:15:17 PM »
Latest weather forecast
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

gandul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5945 on: August 22, 2019, 03:33:12 PM »
For the most part, I think you are correct.  However, there have been some poster who believe that the only way real action on climate change will be taken is for dramatic changes, such as record lows Arctic sea ice.  Hence, I get the impression that there are those who would like to see a new record low.
I will create an anonymous survey to ask this question: are you hoping t to witness a BOE 1) ASAP 2) In my lifetime 3) No, I hope it never happens.
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jplotinus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5946 on: August 22, 2019, 03:39:50 PM »
I recall a discussion from, perhaps, 2014-2015?, on the appearance among posters of rooting for (WANTING) record losses of sea ice. And, yes, some said the presumed motivation was that of galvanizing response to the global climate crisis and forcing changes in human activity.

Some posters took a different view where monitoring of sea ice extent/area/volume/Arctic weather, year-round, daily, sometimes hourly, was more a form of spectacle that, for us who engage in such monitoring, is neither a wish for or against record lows, but merely an interesting avocation. It is something some of us enjoy doing.

I view the cryosphere as being a planetary form of communication with its human inhabitants.
Our planet is telling us that we are on a path towards catastrophic destruction unless we alter our manner of living off of the planet. I think the issue is when and whether we will listen, learn and take action.


F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5947 on: August 22, 2019, 03:52:09 PM »
PETM - What do left and right sides represent?  Thanks
Left is averaged over few days, right is just raw daily data, iirc. Because we know certain processes, like clouds for example, influence daily maps quite much - so running averages are indeed quite helpful to see exactly alongside with daily maps.

PETM, perhaps it'd be best if you'd add exact description to each half in some automated way for future ones? Either into gifs themselves if your software can automatically do it for you once you set it up, or maybe just creating for yourself simple forum-post "form" for posting those animations, which would include such description - so you wouldn't need to type it manually every time.

And PETM, i take this chance to thank you very much for those new-style animations. They are indeed quite very handy. Kudos for your ongoing effort to make them, sir!

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5948 on: August 22, 2019, 04:12:29 PM »
This year is very reminiscent of 2011. One can expect an unprecedented disaster in 2020.

Milwen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5949 on: August 22, 2019, 04:34:08 PM »
HYCOM Ice Thickness August 22 - August 29