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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5950 on: August 22, 2019, 04:56:17 PM »
O/T

Humans are hardwired for 'Fight or Flight', nothing else cuts it

Those seeking the first big 'climate hit' wish that this will be enough to shake 'The Many' into meaningful action before we ALL pay the price for the Capitalist catastrophe?

End of
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ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5951 on: August 22, 2019, 04:58:33 PM »
PETM - What do left and right sides represent?  Thanks

Right side are the original (cropped)  Bremen AMSR2 concentration maps, NIC color style (key attached here).

Left side are per-pixel minimums for 5 trailing days.

Minimums are bad at detecting rapid ice motion from low to high concentration, melt pond refreeze or new ice formation unless it persists 5+ days, etc. But they are good for one key thing: seeing through the many cloud artifacts in the originals.

The idea is to use the minimums together with the original to help interpret what's happening in actively melting areas. They also seem to generally do a good job at mapping the true, persistent high- and low-concentration features.


PETM, perhaps it'd be best if you'd add exact description to each half in some automated way for future ones?

Good idea. I've gotten lazy. And you're most welcome. :)



Re: The O/T.

For me, I used to cheer for a big melt, thinking it might catalyze collective action, but I no longer believe it will matter. (There's zero chance our collective economy will change fast or far enough to avert catastrophe.) So now, I just watch for the enjoyment of witnessing and trying to understand a little of how such a mind-bogglinginly massive and complex system will lurch into a dramatically new state.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2019, 05:41:07 PM by petm »

SimonF92

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5952 on: August 22, 2019, 05:32:27 PM »
HYCOM Ice Thickness August 22 - August 29



I feel like HYCOM must have changed their scale or something because that literally looks like the end of ASI as we know it.

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5953 on: August 22, 2019, 05:57:34 PM »
I doubt this storm will provide much melt,  it is both geographically and temporally in the wrong place for a large melt caused by dispersion or compaction.

The 2012 storm was earlier and over the central Arctic  while this is later and mainly over land.

I'm new to this board and while there is a fantastic amount of data and science on here it surprises me that there is so much desire for melt and records rather than just watching it and learning; it should be about what happens, or potentially happens, not what you want to happen.

Agree as to location but just for example if we would see a GAC 1 week before normally the minimum is reached, let's say during the first week of September, with all that open water, large stretches for wave building and water temps at their max, the damage could not only be huge, but also farther north and delay the melt onset, hence I disagree about the moment in time, I think the later the worse it WOULD be.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5954 on: August 22, 2019, 07:35:28 PM »
HYCOM Ice Thickness August 22 - August 29



I feel like HYCOM must have changed their scale or something because that literally looks like the end of ASI as we know it.
Scale or not, that relatively large patch of while right next to the pole must be something quite interesting. I wonder how that particular place will look like in a week from a satellite, there.

P.S. Oh, and don't underestimate ~0.5m of ice late-season. It'll hold pretty well, especially in CAB, provided weather is not destructive. Insolation rapidly declining is a big help.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5955 on: August 22, 2019, 08:17:58 PM »
I feel like HYCOM must have changed their scale or something because that literally looks like the end of ASI as we know it.

The end of ASI as we know it happened some time ago.

Yossarian80

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5956 on: August 22, 2019, 09:55:22 PM »
Wind warning issued by Environment Canada for the High Arctic Area.  Pretty nasty.

“Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

An intense low pressure centre is forecast to bring strong winds to Resolute and Grise Fiord.

In Resolute southeasterly winds will strengthen tonight with gusts near 100 km/h possible by Friday morning. Winds will diminish Friday evening. Rain is also forecast with amounts near 20 mm.

In Grise Fiord easterly winds are expected to reach, or possibly exceed, 100 km/h. Winds will develop overnight and are expected to diminish Friday night.”

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5957 on: August 23, 2019, 03:08:54 AM »
Seymour Laxton at the University College London (UCL) forecast few years ago that 2020 would be the year of open seas. Looking at sea ice thickness maps, one thing which sticks to my eye is that all ice has thinned and the minuscule thick residue of thick 2-metre sea ice can be pushed out and scattered by wind just about anywhere. Something that I forecast at "Arctic - Mirror of Life" RSE VII Symposium in Ilulissat, Greenland, September 2007. I think the ice volume is now so low that unless there are big freezes in winter it is hard for ice to catch up due to ocean's increased heat content: the deeper water layers have gathered more heat under the ice fince 2007 or 2012 days. So, the ocean must ventilate so much more to recover back to those levels of ice plus less cold ocean water. We still about 3-4 weeks advance in melt levels for no ice left situation (unless we get CAC style vertical mixer)  8)

After the Sea Ice, we can start to speculate Greenland Ice Sheet futures when there is no more summer Arctic sea ice around it. This was my take to that problem at the UK Houses of Parliament: https://www.academia.edu/37157851/Our_Changing_Climate_in_Action_the_Risk_of_Global_Warming_and_the_Environmental_Damage_from_the_Rising_Ocean_Water_Table_Sustainable_Seas_Enquiry_Written_evidence_submitted_by_Veli_Albert_Kallio_FRGS_SSI0121_Ordered_to_be_published_23_May_2018_by_the_House_of_Commons

This year is very reminiscent of 2011. One can expect an unprecedented disaster in 2020.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 03:26:19 AM by VeliAlbertKallio »

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5958 on: August 23, 2019, 03:16:31 AM »
What can happen in September?  Hypothetically if high pressure splashed in and held north of 65 for 3 or 4 days would it impact the ice this late?

Not necessarily high strength dipoles, just the HP
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Human Habitat Index

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5959 on: August 23, 2019, 03:19:26 AM »
Wind warning issued by Environment Canada for the High Arctic Area.  Pretty nasty.

“Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

An intense low pressure centre is forecast to bring strong winds to Resolute and Grise Fiord.

In Resolute southeasterly winds will strengthen tonight with gusts near 100 km/h possible by Friday morning. Winds will diminish Friday evening. Rain is also forecast with amounts near 20 mm.

In Grise Fiord easterly winds are expected to reach, or possibly exceed, 100 km/h. Winds will develop overnight and are expected to diminish Friday night.”

Interesting info, love your name, as we are in a catch 22  :D
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philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5960 on: August 23, 2019, 01:24:20 PM »
What can happen in September?  Hypothetically if high pressure splashed in and held north of 65 for 3 or 4 days would it impact the ice this late?

Not necessarily high strength dipoles, just the HP

Highs won't do much damage anymore IMO since sunshine is one of the greatest contributors to the effect of high pressure system in summer.

At this time of the year we would need lowest possible pressure systems that not only last a bit longer than a day but travel more slowly than what is happening now.

This is a layman's opinion, others may know better and disagree.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5961 on: August 23, 2019, 01:33:25 PM »
Latest weather forecast.
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5962 on: August 23, 2019, 01:52:19 PM »
Aug 16-22.

5-day lagging min v. original Bremen NIC concentration map.

Same pattern as recent days: Atlantic retreat, erosion of Laptev & ESS sectors, Pacific southward advection minus melt, especially the Beaufort tongue. There is a wide swath of low concentration ice on the Pacific side. It will be interesting to see what damage is done there by the upcoming storms.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5963 on: August 23, 2019, 02:05:32 PM »
The "beaufort tongue" is gonna get hit hard with some serious winds for a few days in a row. I don't think much of if will survive. The surface temperature in the northern Laptev sea is still above zero, so I'm curious to see how much more will melt out there, especially if it gets hit with some of that wind.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5964 on: August 23, 2019, 02:07:01 PM »
That low is going to disperse the low concentration ice into the Asian and Pacific side of the basin which should cause SIE declines to initially stall. What happens next with this dispersed ice will determine the final minimums in SIE.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5965 on: August 23, 2019, 02:14:04 PM »
I wonder if dispersion helps to freeze the whole thing over much faster, allowing more of the heat to get trapped under the ice.
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5966 on: August 23, 2019, 02:26:46 PM »
How much impact will this have on the end of the melting season?

SST anomalies

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5967 on: August 23, 2019, 02:45:00 PM »
I wonder if dispersion helps to freeze the whole thing over much faster, allowing more of the heat to get trapped under the ice.
Not really, mechanical action of a storm should allow for more ocean heat excess to reach the ice. Bottom melt is strong now, atmospheric cooling not so important as long as it does not persist for days and days.
The question is how long that this ocean heat excess reaching the more broken ice is enough to compensate for heat losses, with the gradually shorter days (or sun very low in horizon) to keep melting ice.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5968 on: August 23, 2019, 03:04:18 PM »
Yes, when the ice gets dispersed, it will melt faster. But at the same time it will cool the ocean surface, allowing it to freeze more rapidly, no?
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Burnrate

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5969 on: August 23, 2019, 03:13:14 PM »
Yes, when the ice gets dispersed, it will melt faster. But at the same time it will cool the ocean surface, allowing it to freeze more rapidly, no?

I think what he is saying is that the heat stirred up by the storm is the dominant effect and any water cooling from ice melting after being spread out will not affect how things go.

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5970 on: August 23, 2019, 03:15:04 PM »
Yes, when the ice gets dispersed, it will melt faster. But at the same time it will cool the ocean surface, allowing it to freeze more rapidly, no?

If the water were calm, yes.

If the weather is stormy the loss of heat will be compensated through mixing and in case of heavy storms over open waters even overcompensated.

Basically what sailor said

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5971 on: August 23, 2019, 03:26:10 PM »
I totally understand. But the weather isn't really that stormy now, is it? From what I've seen so far this year, 40 km/h winds will just be enough to disperse the ice, without too much mixing, no?

I predicted the ice in the ESS to vanish after it was hit with the same 40 km/h winds more than a month ago, and that ice still has not completely melted. That's why I think this wind won't be strong enough to do much mixing.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 04:03:36 PM by Freegrass »
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5972 on: August 23, 2019, 04:52:22 PM »
...
Re: The O/T.
...
Enough O/T, gentlemen, please? And PETM, i've sent you a PM about it, and i eagerly await your reply there. If you'll want to add anybody else to that PM conversation - please feel free. But here, we must stay on this season's details without any significantly big O/T deviations, as you certainly know. Cheers!

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5973 on: August 23, 2019, 05:53:48 PM »
NW off Greenland

Band I2 increased contrast.

Damn...
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Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5974 on: August 23, 2019, 05:55:14 PM »
The "beaufort tongue" is gonna get hit hard with some serious winds for a few days in a row. I don't think much of if will survive.

I don't see much indication winds in and of themselves melt much; they do disperse on occasion, though not always. It's consistently replenished and sits at the point in the gyre that sends ice towards the Alaska coast.

I doubt it's going anywhere unless a lot of heat comes with those winds.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5975 on: August 23, 2019, 06:19:45 PM »
NW off Greenland
Thin ice is so good for showing ocean surface movement with rammb :)

Worldview viirs brightness temperature, band15 night and terra modis, ESS, 73N 160E, nov1-aug23.
Two very persistent areas of sea ice.  https://go.nasa.gov/2PdUdd4
Also a close up from polarview sentinel1. https://www.polarview.aq/arctic

pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5976 on: August 23, 2019, 06:26:01 PM »
The arctic/ice has been so (cuss word)ing cloudy for the last several weeks that I have no idea what's actually unfolding beneath. That said, this came out yesterday and literally everywhere has either stayed the exact same anomalous warm or has since increased a fair amount since Monday. Again, this continues to look more like 2012.

I don't yet know if the cyclone projected to come to fruition will do so at the pressures indicated by the GFS run will damage the ice more this year, but I do honestly think that there has been additional melting beyond what simply the models have shown.

pls!

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5977 on: August 23, 2019, 06:27:30 PM »
Put a sheet of paper on your desk. Put a finger on it and move it. The whole sheet moves accordingly.

Now, rip up that sheet in many pieces, put it on the desk so that the pieces fit together. When you now put a finger on one of the pieces and move it, the result is that not the whole sheet moves but only the pieces you move with the piece you move.

This is what i think what's going on this time of a year. Wind can easily move small parts of the ice pack, but not the whole pack. I imagine the upcoming storm to move many pieces causing huge gaps in the pack. In the Lincoln Sea especially.
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5978 on: August 23, 2019, 06:30:00 PM »
Thin ice is so good for showing ocean surface movement with rammb :)

Awesome, isn't it?  :D
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pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5979 on: August 23, 2019, 06:30:04 PM »
Put a sheet of paper on your desk. Put a finger on it and move it. The whole sheet moves accordingly.

Now, rip up that sheet in many pieces, put it on the desk so that the pieces fit together. When you now put a finger on one of the pieces and move it, the result is that not the whole sheet moves but only the pieces you move with the piece you move.

This is what i think what's going on this time of a year. Wind can easily move small parts of the ice pack, but not the whole pack. I imagine the upcoming storm to move many pieces causing huge gaps in the pack. In the Lincoln Sea especially.

Yes, I think that is exactly what is going on. While the extent may not be dropping at all, I think that more and more large cracks/fractures are forming daily. I've reviewed all the gif posted here and each ones appears to show more or less the same general trend of the ice in a constant state of mobility.
pls!

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5980 on: August 23, 2019, 06:32:27 PM »
nov1-aug23.

Wow, that's such a great animation. Thanks, Uniquorn!
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sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5981 on: August 23, 2019, 06:46:56 PM »
nov1-aug23.

Wow, that's such a great animation. Thanks, Uniquorn!
Hell yes
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sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5982 on: August 23, 2019, 06:48:07 PM »
Yes, when the ice gets dispersed, it will melt faster. But at the same time it will cool the ocean surface, allowing it to freeze more rapidly, no?

If the water were calm, yes.

If the weather is stormy the loss of heat will be compensated through mixing and in case of heavy storms over open waters even overcompensated.

Basically what sailor said
Thx for rephrasing, I'm not that articulate
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5983 on: August 23, 2019, 06:49:54 PM »
At this time of the year, I'd expect calm, cloudy, and snowy weather to be the most detrimental to the longevity of ice in the Arctic. All three work to trap heat in the ocean and atmosphere.

 If the Arctic isn't losing heat as effectively then the Earth is just going to warm up faster. This melt season seems to have been particularly bad. Lots of insolation with blue skys to soak up heat, and now plenty of cloud and some snow to start trapping that heat; extra water vapor in the atmosphere from warm seas surrounding the ice providing the proverbial 'icing' on the cake. There isn't going to be a new minimum, but this is worse.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5984 on: August 23, 2019, 07:08:02 PM »
NW off Greenland
Thin ice is so good for showing ocean surface movement with rammb :)

Worldview viirs brightness temperature, band15 night and terra modis, ESS, 73N 160E, nov1-aug23.
Two very persistent areas of sea ice.  https://go.nasa.gov/2PdUdd4
Also a close up from polarview sentinel1. https://www.polarview.aq/arctic
Great animation. Very interesting to follow the two grounded pieces left and right of center. At first I thought they were islands, but eventually they are almost wholly melted. These are probably pressure ridges or whatever the correct term is, anyway they're certainly grounded, I but this is part of the explanation for the persistence of the ice remnants in the ESS.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5985 on: August 23, 2019, 07:17:14 PM »
These are probably pressure ridges or whatever the correct term is.

This is Hans Ø yesterday. There is still ice on the northern shores. I wonder why it is still there. Would a 'pressure ridge' 'or whatever the correct term is' qualify for this phenomenon too?
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The most enjoyable way to think about heat transfer through radiation is to picture a Star Wars laser battle, where every atom and molecule is constantly firing at every other atom and molecule.

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5987 on: August 23, 2019, 09:33:42 PM »
As soon as you see a low centered over the North Pole, what immediately follows is a breakout with high pressure reaching for the pole, often piecing the polar front entirely.... Because 2019

GFS strongly indicating a major outbreak in week 2 of Sept.  Since it's long, posting GEPS

The way I'm looking at it, July was the lull.

Posting this out of mortal terror.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 09:42:55 PM by sark »
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5988 on: August 23, 2019, 09:36:32 PM »
The "beaufort tongue" is gonna get hit hard with some serious winds for a few days in a row. I don't think much of if will survive.

Agreed, with the caveat that it may  initially"stick out" even more -- but that'll just be more to melt in the subsequent week or so.

pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5989 on: August 23, 2019, 09:50:45 PM »
Holy hecc, what a difference a few weeks make this late in the year. I tried my bestest best to get the exact same crop of the image, but this is the exact same area just between the two dates listed below. I would image a large storm entering this region to really wreck havoc on what exists right now:


pls!

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5990 on: August 23, 2019, 10:00:42 PM »
I totally understand. But the weather isn't really that stormy now, is it? From what I've seen so far this year, 40 km/h winds will just be enough to disperse the ice, without too much mixing, no?

I predicted the ice in the ESS to vanish after it was hit with the same 40 km/h winds more than a month ago, and that ice still has not completely melted. That's why I think this wind won't be strong enough to do much mixing.

My post was not a prediction because we don't know the weather in such detail more than 3 days out. I said "IF" and that implies that "if not" it's different ;)

So far I can't see any disagreement other than I thought we discuss what can happen under which conditions and you apparently wish to make a forecast of some kind.

All that I can say ist, let's watch and see, soon we shall know ;)

Nice Weekend @all

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5991 on: August 23, 2019, 10:56:15 PM »
...you apparently wish to make a forecast of some kind.

All that I can say ist, let's watch and see, soon we shall know ;)

Nice Weekend @all
Yes, weather forecasting is what I seem to do these days. Not sure how that happened...  ???
But you're right. I'm making predictions on uncertain weather forecasts. Just trying to learn... ;)

Here's the latest forecast, and the storm has strengthened again as it is hitting the CAA for real now. 969 hPa, and in 5 days, if the forecast holds, Svalbard will be hit hard.

(I made this file a little larger to upp the quality. I hope it's not too big!)
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Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5992 on: August 23, 2019, 11:05:13 PM »
Yes we are sick and illiterate, thank you for your diagnosis.

That's a really inappropriate response, for multiple reasons. Please, try to do better. We all recognize the planet is going nuts. It does *not* help to treat each other like crap. Try to assume the least bad intention, not the worst, unless the evidence is clearly to the latter.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5993 on: August 23, 2019, 11:19:59 PM »
I also hope this is not too big at ~5MB. Unihamburg amsr2-uhh, mar21-aug22, no overlay.
The two persistent, probably grounded, ice areas from my previous post are visible in the ess for most of this animation.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5994 on: August 23, 2019, 11:36:59 PM »
... 969 hPa, and in 5 days, if the forecast holds, Svalbard will be hit hard.
I had a feeling it'll be strengthening as we get closer to the date. Plenty energy in the system. Tends to do that. Let's see if it'll end up even lower.

GAC 2019 on the horizon now, no joke. 2007 + 5 = 2012, 2012 + 4 = 2016, 2016 + 3 = 2019 may well end up quite a complete pattern yet, eh. If so, one wonders what will be happening after +2 = 2021 and +1 = 2022. Every year GAC year afterwards? Heck. I wouldn't be much surprised at all...

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5995 on: August 24, 2019, 12:20:02 AM »
Isn't a GAC this late in the melting season actually a good thing for the arctic? Cyclones like that extract a lot of heat from the system, right? Sure, the ice will suffer, and maybe break records, but getting all that heat out quickly will be good for the refreezing season, no?
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VeganPeaceForAll

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5996 on: August 24, 2019, 12:21:15 AM »
Cyclone moving. This was posted by meteorologist on my feed.


sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5997 on: August 24, 2019, 12:40:58 AM »
Isn't a GAC this late in the melting season actually a good thing for the arctic? Cyclones like that extract a lot of heat from the system, right? Sure, the ice will suffer, and maybe break records, but getting all that heat out quickly will be good for the refreezing season, no?
Maybe, but just to be clear, this is not a GAC. I understand by GAC (Neven correct me if im wrong as he coined the name) a summer storm reaching 965 hPa or lower, and staying a few days under 970 hPa, and being located more or less in a central position of the Arctic. 2012 and 2016.

This forecasted weather, if sustained, is to enhance melting at Pacific side of the Arctic making more probable a dilated season anyway. I think.
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5998 on: August 24, 2019, 12:50:15 AM »
Only one tiny spot of CAA cloud-free (clouds are jerks!), but it it's representative, the storm wasn't good for the ice.

https://go.nasa.gov/33Z3Bor

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5999 on: August 24, 2019, 01:14:28 AM »
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
« Last Edit: August 24, 2019, 02:26:57 AM by Freegrass »
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