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philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6000 on: August 24, 2019, 01:16:13 AM »
Isn't a GAC this late in the melting season actually a good thing for the arctic? Cyclones like that extract a lot of heat from the system, right? Sure, the ice will suffer, and maybe break records, but getting all that heat out quickly will be good for the refreezing season, no?

One could say so, only that if the stored heat is significantly higher than in ancient times ;)
this won't be enough to produce a noteworthy rebound. If anything the freeze onset would be faster than usual, only to slow down once the southern peripheries should freeze but can't due to warmer waters and a warmer planet as a whole.

IMO, since there is a permanent exchange of air masses, the warmer mid-latitudes will always or at least most often have their proper impact on polar winter temps and therefore the freezing speed and period.

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6001 on: August 24, 2019, 01:21:18 AM »
Isn't a GAC this late in the melting season actually a good thing for the arctic? Cyclones like that extract a lot of heat from the system, right? Sure, the ice will suffer, and maybe break records, but getting all that heat out quickly will be good for the refreezing season, no?
Maybe, but just to be clear, this is not a GAC. I understand by GAC (Neven correct me if im wrong as he coined the name) a summer storm reaching 965 hPa or lower, and staying a few days under 970 hPa, and being located more or less in a central position of the Arctic. 2012 and 2016.

This forecasted weather, if sustained, is to enhance melting at Pacific side of the Arctic making more probable a dilated season anyway. I think.

Mostly correct whether i doubt that if a storm as described and as I've described it recently in a similar manner happens in during fall, that it won't be a GAC.

The term "Great Arctic Cycone" is not constrained to summer while of course it's effect is probably greatest from August to mid September.

It would be interesting to see a GAC late September, let's say around the usual dates of minimum.
I'm not convinced yet that it could have an even greater impact due to the maximum amount of open water that will then refreeze with a delay and a lot of heat would be pumped up from depth.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6002 on: August 24, 2019, 02:05:02 AM »
Isn't a GAC this late in the melting season actually a good thing for the arctic? Cyclones like that extract a lot of heat from the system, right? Sure, the ice will suffer, and maybe break records, but getting all that heat out quickly will be good for the refreezing season, no?
IMO, since there is a permanent exchange of air masses, the warmer mid-latitudes will always or at least most often have their proper impact on polar winter temps and therefore the freezing speed and period.
I absolutely agree, and we all know where this is going. It's not looking good with the whole world on fire. Maybe what I'm trying to say is that in some way nature is trying to restore balance? But it's a losing battle for sure, and these storms may only delay the inevitable a little...

Temperature is dropping like a rock...
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6003 on: August 24, 2019, 02:42:20 AM »



Temperature is dropping like a rock...

Temps are down around the freezing temp of seawater above 80N now, but may struggle to drop much further for a while, that's what GFS forecasts are suggesting, with continuing warm air advection(though it flips around as to the points of attack) There's all the high SSTs ringing the ice, and half the pack itself is full of holes and tears. They will have to freeze over for temps to go down a lot further

Edit: fixed typo and hopefully ungarbled my english
« Last Edit: August 24, 2019, 02:49:23 AM by subgeometer »

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6004 on: August 24, 2019, 03:03:16 AM »
Ice north of Svalbard shows thinning between the pack and the blob pushed(further) into the Barents recently.

This region is in for a lot more 20-30 knot wind from a parade of lows starting in around 3 days if the forecasts are correct - and this area melts and freezes late/on its own schedule - its very far north, but under the influence of the salty warm Atlantic

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6005 on: August 24, 2019, 03:36:11 AM »
HYCOM Ice Thickness August 22 - August 29



I feel like HYCOM must have changed their scale or something because that literally looks like the end of ASI as we know it.

A hole by the pole at the end of the month? hmmm, not sure about that. While that area is almost always cloud covered it hasn't seemed to have had low concentration recently, although ice a few degrees further south on the Eurasian side does have fissures and holes.

The gap opening again east of the CAA storm all the way to the Atlantic is more plausible. There's lot of wind around the big high over Greenland, which is getting cold while almost surrounded by warm SSTs(Baffin Bay is verywarm, much of it with 4C+ anomaly on the DMI chart.

Anomalies continue edging up in the ESS as well, and DMI also shows a growing area of elevated SSTs across the wide swathe of thinning ice adjoining the Laptev Sea. If correct the freezing season will be brutal, right now there still remains plenty of energy for melt and to propel storms

heartofsun

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6006 on: August 24, 2019, 03:56:42 AM »

[/quote]

A hole by the pole at the end of the month? hmmm, not sure about that. While that area is almost always cloud covered it hasn't seemed to have had low concentration recently, although ice a few degrees further south on the Eurasian side does have fissures and holes.


[/quote]

Actually this snapshot of that region on the last clear day on August 15th makes a hole there seem possible...

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6007 on: August 24, 2019, 05:48:32 AM »
Aug 17-23

5-day min v. original Bremen

Hint of collapse in S. CAA due to storm -- more to come? Other previous trends continue. Is some of that ice thin enough for the upcoming winds & waves to finish it?

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6008 on: August 24, 2019, 06:02:55 AM »
That peskily persistent ice in the ESS is easily visible today - perhaps the only part of the Arctic without total cloud cover?
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sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6009 on: August 24, 2019, 07:08:15 AM »
This is still indicating much lowering polar atmosphere height, strenthening arctic oscillation.  I'm sure it'll retrace in August.

Seems like all the models are locked on to it now
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6010 on: August 24, 2019, 07:21:11 AM »
Is some of that ice thin enough for the upcoming winds & waves to finish it?
The forecasted winds have strengthened in the last few hours. This isn't looking good for the ice!

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/08/25/0300Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.08,89.37,2304/loc=-162.828,80.971
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binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6011 on: August 24, 2019, 07:28:35 AM »
This is the situation for basically all of today. Large amounts of heat being pulled in from the Baffin sea, the North Atlantic and to a lesser degree, Eastern Siberia.

Plus lots of strong wind over long fetches of open water!

(Click if you want to see it moving ...)
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6012 on: August 24, 2019, 07:36:01 AM »
There are whorls of thick ice remaining in the southern part of Hudson Bay as of 8/23. This is the latest ice has persisted in the vicinity since 2009, at least according to my glance through MODIS imagery.

I would think this indicates we may see an early refreeze for parts of Hudson as heating has been more limited than most years, and in sync with the broiling Arctic SSTs, this could allow for severe autumnal cold and snow anomalies across most of Canada (September, October, November).

It looks like 2004 also saw ice extant in September. 2004 was a weak El Nino, 2009 was a moderate El Nino. I think there may be some connection between the persistence of this relatively low-latitude sea ice and the ensuing wintertime ENSO state or it might just be noise (or perhaps the low-latitude sea ice is a symptom of some developing +ENSO events, and not the other way around -- who knows).

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6013 on: August 24, 2019, 08:10:40 AM »
These are probably pressure ridges or whatever the correct term is.

This is Hans Ø yesterday. There is still ice on the northern shores. I wonder why it is still there. Would a 'pressure ridge' 'or whatever the correct term is' qualify for this phenomenon too?

Could it be plastic buildup?
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6014 on: August 24, 2019, 08:27:08 AM »
August 19-23.

2018.

BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6015 on: August 24, 2019, 08:28:21 AM »
This is the situation for basically all of today. Large amounts of heat being pulled in from the Baffin sea, the North Atlantic and to a lesser degree, Eastern Siberia.

Yes, with the cyclone ending up a bit further north, it may end up compacting the ice more on the Atlantic side, as well as bringing in warmer Atlantic waters, with persistent southerlies forecast for the coming days. Overall there's quite a strong reverse dipole.  It will be interesting to see exactly what's happening beneath the clouds, when the weather gods finally deign to give us a look.

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6016 on: August 24, 2019, 09:27:12 AM »
Models are trending deeper and deeper. Below 970 hpa will as forecasted now make this complex looking like a GAC. Brace yourself for ice armagedon.....

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6017 on: August 24, 2019, 10:09:38 AM »
But, Aslan, before you said the low goes poof, not the ice. ;)
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6018 on: August 24, 2019, 12:04:10 PM »
Below 970 hpa...

According to the Canadian analysis at 06:00 UTC:
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aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6019 on: August 24, 2019, 01:18:49 PM »
But, Aslan, before you said the low goes poof, not the ice. ;)

I am not sure to understand ? For me there were always arguments for saying that models are under estimating this beast. Not yet a true GAC but still quite deep and durable with migthy impacts for an already weakened ice pack.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2019, 01:27:57 PM by aslan »

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6020 on: August 24, 2019, 01:32:14 PM »
... while GFS is letting this thing dying. ...

This seems to be all i heard. Wishful thinking on my part i guess...  :-X

All good, Aslan. It was meant as a joke. Your analysis rock. Please keep doing them.
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aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6021 on: August 24, 2019, 02:53:12 PM »
Thanks, no worries  ;)

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6022 on: August 24, 2019, 03:49:21 PM »
Latest Forecast
Wind + Temp @ 1000hPa

In 5 days from now a lot of heat will enter the basin again if the forecast holds. I wonder if that heat will spark another storm...

Today's storm doesn't seem to be weakening much. Lowest was 968 hPa and right now it's 971 hPa with more heat entering the storm.
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AndyW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6023 on: August 24, 2019, 05:23:04 PM »
Models are trending deeper and deeper. Below 970 hpa will as forecasted now make this complex looking like a GAC. Brace yourself for ice armagedon.....

I'm braced.

What are your predictions on the amount of sea ice lost in the next week in km2?


sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6024 on: August 24, 2019, 08:20:01 PM »
Uptick in the ensemble AO at CPC.  couple of today's models really biting too.  less displacement, still containing two poles of cold potential temperature, co-rotation, but trending up up up

I'm excited but I don't know why
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jjj18641

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6025 on: August 24, 2019, 08:31:45 PM »
Uptick in the ensemble AO at CPC.  couple of today's models really biting too.  less displacement, still containing two poles of cold potential temperature, co-rotation, but trending up up up

I'm excited but I don't know why

I'm genuinely curious on the excitement thing. What is about to maybe happen that might be worth getting exciting about?

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6026 on: August 24, 2019, 08:39:46 PM »
Models are trending deeper and deeper. Below 970 hpa will as forecasted now make this complex looking like a GAC. Brace yourself for ice armagedon.....

I'm braced.

What are your predictions on the amount of sea ice lost in the next week in km2?

Not that much I'm afraid (glad)

This low is now filling up and it's path till the very end has been over land/channels and over the remaining thick and/or intact ice where it could do the least damage.

Only thing that will not show this but in future years is that the heavy blow of warm air over from Ellesmere and up Nares into Lincoln will further attack and weaken the aforementioned thickest available ice in that corner.

It's way too late in the season to have an effect on the minimum of this year and where the weakest ice is, north of Laptev, it's quite calm now and it could be that most of the ice that's still around there will survive.

If the above plays out and remains like this for a week which i'm not saying it will, then we could be in for a 4th place finish. The current trajectory leaves this possibility open for now while i'm still sure that we shall end second place given the 5 day forecasts and the state of the ice.

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6027 on: August 24, 2019, 08:51:02 PM »
The arctic oscillation is trending stronger in forecasts...

2019 has been a year of extremes, becoming absurd on May 1 of 2019 when the entire polar cell split in two from space to earth.  This pulling apart of two vorticities in the Arctic atmosphere wheeled in two high pressure ridges from Beringia and Scandinavia simultaneously IMHO

Jet stream ridges reaching into the Arctic and at times, I would say, connecting.  Ripping the polar cell in half at the prime meridian.

This has gone on for FOUR months.  None of this should be happening in Summer.  This Arctic Amplification has been on the rise since the late 90's and in 2019 has showed us a full tilt roar that took over March, April, May, June, potentially showed a lull in July, and has returned it's ugly head for August and the beginning of September

Presently, impacts in the midwest I would expect in late week 2 and beginning of week 3 September.  Cold snap.  If this had lined up a week later we would be facing the possibility of losing entire state crops of corn & soy to early frost.

-however-

Despite models locking on to an unexpected incursion of high pressure into the Arctic, the ensemble AO at NWS CPC is trending up up up!

Get that shit back in the Arctic until after Halloween for the Midwest.  Crops have never been this immature, have never needed this much time, have never needed this many growing degree days, not in the past 50 years on my oath

as you hear repeatedly on Ag radio,  "Even a normal frost would shorten the growing season"

Lest we stray from Sea Ice, this is all about Arctic Amplification, jet stream wave amplification, etc, etc, all tied to thin sea ice a long time ago.

Also piling on:  The Solar Minimum.  tons of evidence and modeling studies that weaken zonal winds and result in high pressure anomalies over the Arctic Sea Ice

I think of this as a little preview of 2-4 years down the road when the polar cell finally pops or whatever, and pathways are established for Tropical currents to reach the pole without so much as a lap around the Earth.  That's essentially what explains 2019's pattern & extremes.
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Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6028 on: August 24, 2019, 09:58:55 PM »

It's way too late in the season to have an effect on the minimum of this year and where the weakest ice is, north of Laptev, it's quite calm now and it could be that most of the ice that's still around there will survive.


Looks quite calm around the edges of the ice pack 🤔

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6029 on: August 24, 2019, 10:11:14 PM »

It's way too late in the season to have an effect on the minimum of this year and where the weakest ice is, north of Laptev, it's quite calm now and it could be that most of the ice that's still around there will survive.


Looks quite calm around the edges of the ice pack 🤔

Exactly, quite means quite and not it's calm.

Wind speeds along the ice edge are around mid-twenties km/h, this is when i start to get my surfboard out or switch to a 6m2 sail coming from 7.5m2, nothing to fall in awe about.

The wind direction is "with the ice-edge" hence the wind and even more so the waves cannot attach the ice head on. Neither is the ice compacted nor is it dispersed and driven south for melting.

Air won't melt 500 extre K of ice at 0.5-2.5C, mostly below 1C.

Waves that develop are mostly running into open water, they are running the wrong angle.

Last but not least and even though the map you chose looks somehow impressive, wind-speeds at the periphery of that low are not THAT HIGH

Pressure is not that low, won't crack the ice by lifting it from the surface (just kidding)

At close to 500k above 2012 and with such kind of storms that dissipate over intact ice, land masses as well as narrow water channels won't be able to do the damage needed to make up for +400k.

If you follow the temps carefully one can see that temps are dropping significantly all around the arctic (inside arctic circle) and this means that storms soon will have to come up from the tropics to bring significant melting power to the ice "air-wise"

Bottom melt is probably at it's peak but we would have needed the ocean to be stirred up in serious with long stretches of steady strong winds and this is only the case on the atlantic side, exactly where thick ice will be met and no huge melting can be expected north of fram/greenland.

In short, this storm is too weak and has to wrong path to do the job as you will see for yourself withing 2-3 days.

That does NOT mean nor say that there won't be any more melt but it means and DOES say that we won't make up 500k withing 20 days if there won't be a real GAC with the correct path, best coming in from Sbiria to finish of the weak ice in Laptev and the small protrusion in ESS joint with the remainder in Beaufort and Parry Channel at least.

And BTW your slight condescension is misplaced. Even though my opinion is only an opinion is also and educated opinion from experience and by no way as ridiculous as you tried to make it sound.

The wind and temp map is from 18:00 UTC, that's less than 3 hours ago.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2019, 10:40:04 PM by philopek »

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6030 on: August 24, 2019, 11:12:51 PM »
I've thought for some time that getting to a new record low was unlikely. However, with some trepidation I suggest that sea ice extent and area losses might be awakening from their current slumber

What has caught my eye from the current GFS wind forecasts is a strengthening connection between the low over the CAA and the low SE of Greenland (image attached|). They seem to be creating a significant air flow (even if not a storm) from the relatively warm mid-Atlantic into and across the Arctic Ocean.

A fillip to Atlantification ? i.e. Fram export stopped, Greenland area / extent reduced, and the Atlantic front shifts towards the Pacific end. And is there not quite a lot of rubbish ice all along the Russian ice edge that even moderate winds will shove towards the Pacific where SSTs are very high? And at least some warmer Atlantic  surface water moving North?

That which is needed to shove Sea Ice Extent firmly below 4 million km2?

At which point this person scuttles back to the sea ice data thread.
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Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6031 on: August 24, 2019, 11:34:21 PM »

What has caught my eye from the current GFS wind forecasts is a strengthening connection between the low over the CAA and the low SE of Greenland (image attached|). They seem to be creating a significant air flow (even if not a storm) from the relatively warm mid-Atlantic into and across the Arctic Ocean.


It is a very strong storm blowing warm winds across the ice edges and compacting the ice that has been scattered all season. 

I wish I would have taken a screen shot of the storm warnings for Resolute, Nunavut last night as the low moved through.  They got hammered!   The arctic is not the UK.  Good luck wind surfing through a storm like this.

It is unlikely that 2019 will catch 2012 this late in the season.  However, this storm is doing a lot of damage.   

EDIT: to be clear, I was agreeing with your post Gerontocrat, and also responding to philopek’s post above.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2019, 11:46:22 PM by Rod »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6032 on: August 25, 2019, 01:33:40 AM »
It's way too late in the season to have an effect on the minimum of this year

This ridiculous and most likely false statement gave me a good laugh.

How can a scientist feel comfortable making such statements, in August, during one of the worst melt years in history filled with tropical air injections over the Arctic ice slush?

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6033 on: August 25, 2019, 01:45:25 AM »
I did not know he was a scientist. There are lots of people who say things that are not credible this time of the year.

If he is a scientist, I apologize for being rude.  But, I still think he was wrong in his assessment. Lots of us have science backgrounds and are able to understand what is happening.

Philopek, I’m sorry for insulting you if you are a scientist. But, I don’t think your conclusions were correct.  Anyway, I apologize for being rude. 

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6034 on: August 25, 2019, 02:04:52 AM »
It's way too late in the season to have an effect on the minimum of this year
I tend to agree with this statement, although using windsurf to evaluate Arctic ocean winds does not make sense. Some 30-40 knot winds is the (almost) everyday trade winds of the Canaries, but it’s exceptional in the Arctic Summer.
Also, I would wait until Wednesday to assess broader effects.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6035 on: August 25, 2019, 02:42:26 AM »
Latest five day forecast is showing that the wind has gone down significantly. This forecast isn't looking as bad anymore as it did before.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2019, 02:54:26 AM by Freegrass »
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philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6036 on: August 25, 2019, 03:37:15 AM »
It's way too late in the season to have an effect on the minimum of this year
I tend to agree with this statement, although using windsurf to evaluate Arctic ocean winds does not make sense. Some 30-40 knot winds is the (almost) everyday trade winds of the Canaries, but it’s exceptional in the Arctic Summer.
Also, I would wait until Wednesday to assess broader effects.

I was just kidding and it was obviously a joke. interesting how people catch every straw to falsify what they don't like.

I mean it was a long post with much reasoning and even though one does not have to agree, the usual nitpicking and picking one or two words out that SEEM wrong or don't fit one's bias and discard the entire rest is ridiculous IMO and it happens regularly and all over the place.

that surf joke was to say that those wind speeds are the lower end of having fun and certainly nothing like a killer storm and that's how i wrote it.

The other guy who call it ridiculous should look where the weak ice is, look at the charts, look at the forecasted wind and weather patterns and then tell me how the only remaining weak ice of significance and amount should melt out.

Further 2012 does not stop toda, it continues on his trajectory almost to the end and how should we make up 500k + at the same time keep further up with 2012 without a real killer event.

I also said it won't happen without such an event, I NEVER SAID IT CAN'T OR WONT' HAPPEN.

Hence there we can see the bias of a few, discarding dozens of lines, picking out  a few words and taking them out of context and launch ad-hominem attacks so that everything fits their bias until proven otherwise.

I really can't tell for sure (as i wrote earlier) but chances to catch and pass 2012 are now less than 10% and that is not ridiculous, it's reasonable and taking the risk i say I'll be right, even though i normally give a ..... to be right but with such kind of trump-like narcissists around i cant' resist to go out on this limb.

Watch my words and the only thing that is left to interesting is whether those kind of guys will ever admit and apologize. Probably not.

In contrast, Gerontocrat's reply is a valid point of few, an own opinion based on an other viewing angle and brought to our attention without further side-kicks. That's something that is widening the horizon, worth to consider and a positive feedback, no matter that the verdict is different, simply interesting.

« Last Edit: August 25, 2019, 03:43:16 AM by philopek »

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6037 on: August 25, 2019, 04:18:19 AM »
Thank you for your wisdom philopek, we were all really struggling to understand what was happening until you got here and sorted it all out for us. 🙌

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6038 on: August 25, 2019, 05:34:55 AM »
I mean, thanx for the explanation.

But yeah, claiming any major weather event won’t have an influence on the minimum is a very very odd statement scientifically. Claiming it in August, during an insanely strong melt year, with tropical incursions, and an ice pack that resembles slush... is a bit out there.

If it was humor, you should add a /s tag at the end of the sentence.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2019, 05:40:21 AM by TeaPotty »

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6039 on: August 25, 2019, 06:08:36 AM »
It's way too late in the season to have an effect on the minimum of this year

This ridiculous and most likely false statement gave me a good laugh.

How can a scientist feel comfortable making such statements, in August, during one of the worst melt years in history filled with tropical air injections over the Arctic ice slush?
What's with the "let's go directly to the personal insults" thing here?

I don't agree with much of what philopek said, I think the winds + the hundreds of km of open water are quite sufficient to cause damage to the ice, and that this will inevitably have an effect on the minimum. But whether that effect is big or small I've no idea.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6040 on: August 25, 2019, 06:12:56 AM »
I mean, thanx for the explanation.

But yeah, claiming any major weather event won’t have an influence on the minimum is a very very odd statement scientifically. Claiming it in August, during an insanely strong melt year, with tropical incursions, and an ice pack that resembles slush... is a bit out there.

If it was humor, you should add a /s tag at the end of the sentence.
There is no rule about adding tags to show what is humor and what is not. Besides, it's demeaning to the reader, implying that he is too stupid to see the jokes for themselves.

But perhaps there should be a rule about people being a little less willing to turn on the personal attacks.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6041 on: August 25, 2019, 06:17:39 AM »
I made no attack, nor insult.

There is no scientific way to make a statement that near-term weather won’t effect the minimum. It simply doesnt make any sense.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6042 on: August 25, 2019, 06:21:09 AM »
Please return to the topic.

Thanks.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

AmbiValent

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6043 on: August 25, 2019, 07:55:13 AM »
The ice appears to be retreating or getting weaker at Franz Josef and the Laptev bite, but the numbers are barely moving. Is there already strong refreeze balancing the melting, or are both melt and refreeze weak right now?
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6044 on: August 25, 2019, 08:01:02 AM »
Was looking at ice movement off the north-east corner of Greenland, and I noticed that along the shore, several spots of white (snow or ice?) seems to be melting fast. Take particular notice of the red circled areas in the last frame, I'm sure that others can be found as well.

(Needs a click)
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6045 on: August 25, 2019, 08:16:58 AM »
Looking at the entrance to the Nares strait shows snow-free conditions on the 14th and the following days. Then on the 23rd quite a lot of snow can be seen, but it is clearly melting away. I'm assuming that this is the same snow as can be seen melting rapidly between the 23rd and the 24th on the images above.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6046 on: August 25, 2019, 09:26:29 AM »
A lot of weather action the next 10 days according to EC 00z op run! The Atlantic sector will take a really big hit the first five days. And by the end of the forecast run EC hints of a possible bombcyclone over Kara Sea followed by a big dipole.

 

VeganPeaceForAll

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6047 on: August 25, 2019, 09:29:00 AM »
Some pictures from the ongoing cyclone.
Observing the wind speed and temperature.
Picture 2 and 3 at 1000hPa
« Last Edit: August 25, 2019, 09:37:51 AM by VeganPeaceForAll »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6048 on: August 25, 2019, 12:08:20 PM »

But yeah, claiming any major weather event won’t have an influence on the minimum is a very very odd statement scientifically. Claiming it in August, during an insanely strong melt year, with tropical incursions,

Tropical incursions?

This 10 day backward trajectory ensemble plot for the top of Ellesmere shows the air origin within Canada. A long way from the tropics. As with many deep cyclones it has (had) a warm sector. Likely source of the "heat" was over Baffin Bay.

The air to the north of the cyclone was down to -5 C before it hit. As the cyclone now starts to fill and is quite stationary the warm sector is being mixed out (so too is the colder air). The 2m air over the Northern Beaufort is expected to mix down to temperatures in the region of 0 to -2 C over the coming few days.

But as Lord Vader mentioned already, the north Atlantic/Svalbard area will be the focus for melt/movement now as models are suggesting a quite long period of S or SE winds there.

   

slow wing

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6049 on: August 25, 2019, 12:24:43 PM »
The arctic/ice has been so (cuss word)ing cloudy for the last several weeks that I have no idea what's actually unfolding beneath...
...as Lord Vader mentioned already, the north Atlantic/Svalbard area will be the focus for melt/movement now as models are suggesting a quite long period of S or SE winds there.

NASA Worldview is finally showing some clear skies over the Atlantic side. The Laptev sector has been windy since the beginning of August and we see now that it has taken quite a hit.

Interestingly, there is a fringe of more solid ice at the Atlantic edge which -- as I seem to recall from the ice age plot -- contains some multi-year ice. But the ice inside it in the Laptev sector looks to be slush at least up to the northern cloud edge at around 5 degrees from the Pole.