August 21-25.
Lots of dispersion. The extent slowdown could still bring another leg down in the next couple of weeks, though the season is nearing to a close.
I'm almost certain at this point 2019 will come in 4th. But, then, I was certain it would come in 2nd back in July. But the recent trend is strong and the daily average melt/compaction needed to meet 20012 just too high:
JAXA 54.55k/day
NSIDC 57.7k/day
This is simply not going to happen, no matter what. We all know that. But, the daily average melt/compaction needed to match 2016 is also too high:
JAXA 25.71k/day
NSIDC 29.6k/day
Both are still in reach, but they're both high for this time in the season. Caveat: If the melt season stumbles on till say, the 25th, then much can change, but that seems unlikely at present.
Given the window between 2016 and 2007 is very small (10k for one year and 50k for the other year), a 4th place finish now seems the most likely outcome.
I remind everyone, to understand 2019, look to 2002. Pull them up together on the JAXA or Charctic graphs...
2nd Caveat: There is definitely more area of low concentration compared to 2012, so (un)favorable winds and currents could still make a big difference.