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Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6050 on: August 25, 2019, 12:29:54 PM »
I really can't tell for sure (as i wrote earlier) but chances to catch and pass 2012 are now less than 10% and that is not ridiculous

Hard to say impossbile, but incredibly improbable, at least for ASI Extent. Colloquially, i.e. a data-based opinion (mine) is there is essentially zero chance of catching 2012. It would require approximately -55k km2/day over 22 days or so (JAXA) at a time when avg. daily losses are in the 30k range, and dropping to under 20k in Sept. NSIDC

You'd have to lose 570k just to catch up with 2012 *today*.

Same essential numbers apply to NSIDC: -57k/day as of the 23rd.

And, catching 2016 is inching into the "unlikely" range at -23.13 (JAXA) and -29.6k (NSIDC).

The caveat for both is the same: A longer date (9/9 and 9/16, respectively) for the minimum reduces the daily average.

I'd be surprised if this storm affected extent much, other than to expand it, though it may do a number on area and volume.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2019, 03:56:59 PM by Killian »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6051 on: August 25, 2019, 12:33:21 PM »
The ice appears to be retreating or getting weaker at Franz Josef and the Laptev bite, but the numbers are barely moving. Is there already strong refreeze balancing the melting, or are both melt and refreeze weak right now?
There's a good view on that ice today, and it's not looking good! It's especially bad if you look at the persistent high sea surface temperatures in that area.

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Archimid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6052 on: August 25, 2019, 12:41:05 PM »
It seems to me that North of 80 we are at the stage that clouds are no longer good for the ice. All the water in the atmosphere must be removed before fast freezing can begin. 
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6053 on: August 25, 2019, 12:49:13 PM »
Wipneus data updated today. CAA area clearly affected by the storm. Extent, not so much yet.
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional

@Freegrass - good to rotate and make the gifs smaller but probably still need the scale. Maybe post the scale as a second single image?

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6054 on: August 25, 2019, 01:00:29 PM »
Looking at the entrance to the Nares strait shows snow-free conditions on the 14th and the following days. Then on the 23rd quite a lot of snow can be seen, but it is clearly melting away. I'm assuming that this is the same snow as can be seen melting rapidly between the 23rd and the 24th on the images above.
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sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6055 on: August 25, 2019, 01:07:17 PM »
It's way too late in the season to have an effect on the minimum of this year
I tend to agree with this statement, although using windsurf to evaluate Arctic ocean winds does not make sense. Some 30-40 knot winds is the (almost) everyday trade winds of the Canaries, but it’s exceptional in the Arctic Summer.
Also, I would wait until Wednesday to assess broader effects.

I was just kidding and it was obviously a joke. interesting how people catch every straw to falsify what they don't like.

I mean it was a long post with much reasoning and even though one does not have to agree, the usual nitpicking and picking one or two words out that SEEM wrong or don't fit one's bias and discard the entire rest is ridiculous IMO and it happens regularly and all over the place.

that surf joke was to say that those wind speeds are the lower end of having fun and certainly nothing like a killer storm and that's how i wrote it.
Easy, philopek I was not trying to nitpick anything, I just found odd the windsurfing comparison, ok it was a joke? I am sorry then, but was difficult to pick.
And while I cautiously agree with you in the main point, today’s  open ocean wind fetch is quite impressive (for the Arctic) with almost 60 km/h in some points and 4 m waves.... but short lasting.
Added humorously the Canary Islands with Venturi effect accelerating trade winds between the islands. Signaled the wind on one of the sweetest spots for wind surfing, the South East of Gran Canaria. Weaker than Arctic today! Many days it gets stronger.
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El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6056 on: August 25, 2019, 02:53:34 PM »
I hate to say this, but this is the main thread, and its quality has deteriorated a lot this year. We used to have fewer posters with relevant stuff, most often supported by data/graphs; but now we have lots of OT and random musings and (seemingly not very knowledgable) people who post many times a day lengthy posts without much (if any) substance or new, relevant information. I used to read every post on the melting/freezing threads because I could learn from them, but nowadays I skip most because they are more or less worthless. If I were the moderator I would ask everyone if possible to do short posts, only with real, significant data and concise analysis and let's do the philosophizning on other threads.
I hope (wish) the freezing season thread would be different...

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6057 on: August 25, 2019, 03:02:24 PM »
+1
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Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6058 on: August 25, 2019, 03:53:19 PM »
I hate to say this, but this is the main thread, and its quality has deteriorated a lot this year. We used to have fewer posters with relevant stuff, most often supported by data/graphs; but now we have lots of OT and random musings and (seemingly not very knowledgable) people who post many times a day lengthy posts without much (if any) substance or new, relevant information. I used to read every post on the melting/freezing threads because I could learn from them, but nowadays I skip most because they are more or less worthless. If I were the moderator I would ask everyone if possible to do short posts, only with real, significant data and concise analysis and let's do the philosophizning on other threads.
I hope (wish) the freezing season thread would be different...

People learn best by doing. These kinds of rants are, whether intentional or not, aggressive, rude and patronizing. You are basically saying this board should never change, new people, with their learning curves, should ever post; it is only for the "elite", already-knowledgeable.

There's an opportunity cost in having an ignorant populace; I'd think you'd want as many people as possible to be engaged with these issues.

Your view is one way for the forum to operate. I'm merely pointing out a potential flaw in your argument.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6059 on: August 25, 2019, 03:59:41 PM »
Aug 18-24.

5-day min v. original Bremen.

Still not much movement. Atlantic side, reversed from retreat to advance. CAA, affected by storm. Asian and Pacific side, continued concentration reduction in huge area, now reaching below 10% (dark blue) in many dispersed areas. Still seems possible for a large extent drop. 

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6060 on: August 25, 2019, 04:27:59 PM »
Consistent with above, CAB area continues to decline. See both Gerontocrat's and Wipeus' data.





petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6062 on: August 25, 2019, 05:16:53 PM »
GFS has a big storm ~d7-d12 starting at Siberia and traversing to the Beaufort. Far out and Euro disagrees, but still noteworthy.





open water at 89.5N

To me that looks like cloud.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6063 on: August 25, 2019, 05:22:12 PM »
Five day forecast, and I've added a picture of the northern atlantic ocean in five days from now. I would say surfs up!  And look at the wind on Greenland. That high pressure system is going wild...
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grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6064 on: August 25, 2019, 05:23:05 PM »
and Euro disagrees

Just barely. Euro has an equally strong storm, it's just that it's in the Kara sea instead of Laptev (and run ends before we see where it goes)

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6065 on: August 25, 2019, 05:30:52 PM »
For the first time this year, starting to see some ice formation in the ESRL model: yellows and browns in the figure, on the Asian side to the N of where very strong bottom melt continues.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/seaice/

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6066 on: August 25, 2019, 07:24:55 PM »
GFS has a big storm ~d7-d12 starting at Siberia and traversing to the Beaufort. Far out and Euro disagrees, but still noteworthy.

If that would happen with a trajectory from Kara/Laptev to Beaufort with a slow advance and below 970hPa that could turn things around once more.

To get a "chance" for a new low the Laptev/ESS would have to go up to 85N and every event that does not touch that area won't do the job.

BTW, even though I predicted RELATIVELY little damage of the current storm, even I was surprised how little. Looking a the numbers the trajectory didn't move downward even the tiniest bit.

Nevertheless there most probably will be a downward curve, just not even close to be sufficiently steep to make up for the +500k that we're behind 2012 by now. Else i stick to my ridiculous opinion from yesterday, that belongs to me and my friends with an objective lens :D

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6067 on: August 25, 2019, 08:41:51 PM »
Are we still likely to end up in the Big Three, if not the Chanpion?
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oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6068 on: August 25, 2019, 08:46:16 PM »
We are already there, 3rd by area guaranteed. Could be lower but will be relatively difficult.
Very good chance of 2nd place finish for extent, but could become 4th under some circumstances (currently 6th but very hard to stay there).

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6069 on: August 25, 2019, 08:51:53 PM »
I would give the second place a higher likelihood than the fourth place. But yes, biggest likelihood on the third.

That said, i don't actually know.
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6070 on: August 25, 2019, 09:00:50 PM »
BTW, even though I predicted RELATIVELY little damage of the current storm, even I was surprised how little. Looking a the numbers the trajectory didn't move downward even the tiniest bit.

Sort of. There was at least local damage in the CAA (incidentally the last bastion of thick ice) and today there are strong winds & waves on the Pacific side. I'd suggest waiting a few days and until the clouds thin before assessing it.



3rd by area guaranteed... Very good chance of 2nd place finish for extent

And the most important (but most difficult to measure): volume?

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6071 on: August 25, 2019, 09:10:57 PM »
BTW, even though I predicted RELATIVELY little damage of the current storm, even I was surprised how little. Looking a the numbers the trajectory didn't move downward even the tiniest bit.

Sort of. There was at least local damage in the CAA (incidentally the last bastion of thick ice) and today there are strong winds & waves on the Pacific side. I'd suggest waiting a few days and until the clouds thin before assessing it.

Sure there is damage done each day, I tried to emphasize that it's not sufficient for a new record low, that was the core of the discussion.

If we remember the wrangle arm this year, that finally succumbed, it took about 2 months and the ice in Laptev around 80N is now in a similar state. Since we won't have 2 month this time we need the kind of event you mentioned about >7 days out.

The damages won't be ground braking this time because the winds and the waves could not unleash their full power in the constraints of the CAA and the angle of attack these days is sub-optimal as well as the main forces are unleashed over ice that won't succumb in a day or two, it would take about a week of this which again won't happen.

Without going into too many details I would sign off anything you posted recently. I basically just wanted to add a few additional thoughts.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6072 on: August 25, 2019, 09:23:29 PM »
I tried to emphasize that it's not sufficient for a new record low, that was the core of the discussion.

Sure, I agree with that. I'm now convinced that the ship sailed for record low extent a couple weeks ago -- no GAC. 2012 was truly a perfect storm while 2019 is simply on near trend, nevertheless still closing in on records. That said, several types of weather could still hit extent hard, including storms across the Asian/Pacific half, or compaction of same (low-concentration areas).
« Last Edit: August 25, 2019, 09:29:23 PM by petm »

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6073 on: August 25, 2019, 09:23:48 PM »
Was looking at ice movement off the north-east corner of Greenland, and I noticed that along the shore, several spots of white (snow or ice?) seems to be melting fast. Take particular notice of the red circled areas in the last frame, I'm sure that others can be found as well.


There was fresh snowfall in that area around August 20 and it's been melting slowly since then.

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6074 on: August 25, 2019, 09:38:58 PM »
I tried to emphasize that it's not sufficient for a new record low, that was the core of the discussion.

Sure, I agree with that. I'm now convinced that the ship sailed for record low extent a couple weeks ago -- no GAC. 2012 was truly a perfect storm while 2019 is simply on near trend, nevertheless still closing in on records. That said, several types of weather could still hit extent hard, including storms across the Asian/Pacific half, or compaction of same (low-concentration areas).

I couldn't say it better (only worse haha..) +1

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6075 on: August 25, 2019, 10:29:47 PM »
Sure, I agree with that. I'm now convinced that the ship sailed for record low extent a couple weeks ago -- no GAC.

Not just no GAC, but it also took a while for melting momentum to really get underway. A lot was built up in the end, but it was weeks behind 2012 during May and the first half of June.
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AmbiValent

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6076 on: August 25, 2019, 10:51:07 PM »
For the first time this year, starting to see some ice formation in the ESRL model: yellows and browns in the figure, on the Asian side to the N of where very strong bottom melt continues.
Strong melt right next to strong freeze looks odd - or rather more like ice movement instead of change. I expect a stronger contrast between whole regions in Start-to-Mid-September.
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6077 on: August 26, 2019, 12:03:22 AM »
Strong melt right next to strong freeze looks odd - or rather more like ice movement instead of change. I expect a stronger contrast between whole regions in Start-to-Mid-September.

Yeah, I'm not at all sure how well that model tracks reality. But it presumably does a decent job at factoring in solar input (decreases), temperature, etc. It's the most detailed publicly available model I've seen, so at least worth taking note of and seeing if corroborating or refuting evidence can be found.

(NB: I don't think it's movement though. The model tracks that separately -- check out the various pages on the link. This chart is specifically bottom melt / growth.)

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6078 on: August 26, 2019, 02:00:44 AM »
There is unanimous agreement between the major global models that we will see a major cyclonic event in the D8-10 period.







The consensus is IMO significant. The location is fairly similar across the board and pressures deepen to about 970mb or lower on each model.

There is a lot of very weak ice in the Laptev and adjacent to the Atlantic that could melt with vigor. There is also weak ice elsewhere. We aren't yet at mid-September so a cyclone of this magnitude could very well have impacts similar or worse to the 2012 GAC IMO.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6079 on: August 26, 2019, 02:30:54 AM »
I think this is related to the very early start to winter we have seen in NW North America. There will still be warmth, but the last few days have featured temperatures severely below normal as the first major falls have occurred in elevated parts of the Yukon.

As the continents begin to turn white as we head into September, this should encourage deeper mid-latitude negative 500MB anomalies, and is likely to result in large amounts of oceanic heat advecting north into the Arctic on the backsides of troughs derivative of the early season snowfall. That will manifest as storms.

In the meantime, it looks like the complete melt out of the Eurasian-adjacent pack is leaving the polar airmasses spiraling out of the Arctic destined for the Yukon, a situation which could mostly continue until we see substantial refreeze.


oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6080 on: August 26, 2019, 02:31:21 AM »
Interestingly, despite the recent slowdown in extent and area losses, Steven's weighted SMOS chart is still showing a persistently low reading.

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6081 on: August 26, 2019, 02:55:32 AM »
I just have one very scientific thing to say ... the ice looks like Shit!

The Laptev and Beaufort are getting hammered.  The extent in Beaufort is going up, but the ice that is getting flushed into the south Beaufort is the last of the multi year 5+ ice. 

This year is unlikely to break records for extent (although it is still too early to rule that out for certain) but, the ice going into the freezing season is going to be about the worst it has ever been. 

Just play around on Worldview for a few minutes.  It looks terrible.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6082 on: August 26, 2019, 03:04:13 AM »
I forgot to add this post from Lars Kaleschke today. It shows areas where extent is likely to start dropping soon. 


petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6083 on: August 26, 2019, 05:51:05 AM »
Aug 19-25

Min v. original Bremen

Pack started rotating counter-clockwise and outwards, presumably due the cyclone. I wouldn't be surprised if there's an extent increase as a result. Effects of storm in Beaufort today seem already apparent. Concentration drops continue across the Asian side, especially the Laptev section.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6084 on: August 26, 2019, 06:02:15 AM »
August 21-25.

2018.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6085 on: August 26, 2019, 06:21:11 AM »
August 21-25.
Lots of dispersion. The extent slowdown could still bring another leg down in the next couple of weeks, though the season is nearing to a close.

arctic-watcher

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6086 on: August 26, 2019, 06:51:49 AM »
Yeah the ice looks vulnerable in a few places but absent a sustained, high impact cyclone this melt season is effectively over given the dropping temperatures and stalled momentum.  Yes, bottom melt will continue for awhile yet but without some cyclone-driven mixing even that will probably not amount to much.  Less than a week to September now.  Lesser impacts are just too little, too late now.  Just one arctic watcher's opinion but time will soon tell the story and time is running very short for melt this year. 

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6087 on: August 26, 2019, 07:14:29 AM »
It seems to me that the stall these last few weeks compared to 2012 is mostly due to dispersion. Late August 2012 saw the inner ice a lot more compacted, especially towards the Pacific side.

Dispersion obviously causes higher extent, but then area seems to be stalling as well. But how reliable are the area measurements, particularly with highly dispersed ice under cloudy skies? I don't know.

But it does seem to me that a good "compaction event" on the Pacific side could lose several 100 k's without any extra melt.

And that leads me to wonder if the difference between 2012 and now lies not so much in how much ice has melted as in how it is distributed - admittedly, 2012 had less ice, but the difference probably wasn't nowhere as big as the current extent numbers indicate.
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Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6088 on: August 26, 2019, 09:08:22 AM »
August 21-25.
Lots of dispersion. The extent slowdown could still bring another leg down in the next couple of weeks, though the season is nearing to a close.

I'm almost certain at this point 2019 will come in 4th. But, then, I was certain it would come in 2nd back in July. But the recent trend is strong and the daily average melt/compaction needed to meet 20012 just too high:

JAXA 54.55k/day

NSIDC 57.7k/day

This is simply not going to happen, no matter what. We all know that. But, the daily average melt/compaction needed to match 2016 is also too high:

JAXA 25.71k/day

NSIDC 29.6k/day

Both are still in reach, but they're both high for this time in the season. Caveat: If the melt season stumbles on till say, the 25th, then much can change, but that seems unlikely at present.

Given the window between 2016 and 2007 is very small (10k for one year and 50k for the other year), a 4th place finish now seems the most likely outcome.

I remind everyone, to understand 2019, look to 2002. Pull them up together on the JAXA or Charctic graphs...

2nd Caveat: There is definitely more area of low concentration compared to 2012, so (un)favorable winds and currents could still make a big difference.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2019, 09:37:38 AM by Killian »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6089 on: August 26, 2019, 09:23:37 AM »
I forgot to add this post from Lars Kaleschke today. It shows areas where extent is likely to start dropping soon.
That's the other way around. The areas circled are the areas where extent was greater in 2012 than 2019.

The blue areas are where the ice is already gone.

marcel_g

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6090 on: August 26, 2019, 09:36:21 AM »
Yeah the ice looks vulnerable in a few places but absent a sustained, high impact cyclone this melt season is effectively over given the dropping temperatures and stalled momentum.  Yes, bottom melt will continue for awhile yet but without some cyclone-driven mixing even that will probably not amount to much.  Less than a week to September now.  Lesser impacts are just too little, too late now.  Just one arctic watcher's opinion but time will soon tell the story and time is running very short for melt this year.

Agreed, there isn't much time. The ice does look bad in a lot of areas, and much of it in the Laptev and Beaufort sides looks ready to go poof. Hopefully the refreeze sets in before that happens though. If the melting season was a couple of weeks longer, I'd guess that losses would be significant still, but fortunately it probably won't go that long, so these large areas of slushy ice might just hold on this year. Phew.

HapHazard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6091 on: August 26, 2019, 10:12:32 AM »
August 21-25.


This season isn't good at all. So far, it's one of the worst years for extent, area, and volume - and just look at it all dispersing now... I believe we're witnessing some serious preconditioning here, looking ahead towards the next decade.

Watching with morbid fascination.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6092 on: August 26, 2019, 11:59:57 AM »
By cutting clouds from the top image I made a crude composite of the past 2 days from Worldview of The Eurasian side across to a bit past the pole. There must be a million km2 of dispersed rubble and/or slush between the Laptev sector(where the Atlantic water is?) and the Pacific fringe.

But unlike some earlier years  no Wrangel arms or anything beyond the ESS Big Blob exposed to attack from all sides. Quite a bit of this stuff could survive(barely), and then be covered by a big dump of snow in the next storm.

GFS is also hinting at a bomb cyclone around Kara/Laptev late in the run

SimonF92

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6093 on: August 26, 2019, 12:05:10 PM »
3rd place?

JayW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6094 on: August 26, 2019, 12:31:05 PM »
It seems to me that the stall these last few weeks compared to 2012 is mostly due to dispersion. Late August 2012 saw the inner ice a lot more compacted, especially towards the Pacific side.

Dispersion obviously causes higher extent, but then area seems to be stalling as well. But how reliable are the area measurements, particularly with highly dispersed ice under cloudy skies? I don't know.

But it does seem to me that a good "compaction event" on the Pacific side could lose several 100 k's without any extra melt.

And that leads me to wonder if the difference between 2012 and now lies not so much in how much ice has melted as in how it is distributed - admittedly, 2012 had less ice, but the difference probably wasn't nowhere as big as the current extent numbers indicate.

I agree.

72 hour loop. North of the Laptev.
Requires a click. I tried getting the file down as much as possible. Contrast boosted for detail.
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6095 on: August 26, 2019, 01:04:30 PM »
Drift




CAB extent continues to stall while area drops.



« Last Edit: August 26, 2019, 01:12:36 PM by petm »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6096 on: August 26, 2019, 01:25:50 PM »
Current GFS and Euro runs continue to forecast a decent storm next week.




Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6097 on: August 26, 2019, 01:28:09 PM »
Latest five day forecast.

On day 5, two nasty little storms pop up on the Atlantic side. It'll be interesting to see where they will end up, and how strong they will become. They're feeding off a lot of heat that's coming back into the system from the European continent. We're having our third heatwave of the summer here in Belgium.

I'll try to make a video with temperatures later in the day. At what level should I make it? 850 hPa, or 1000 hPa? I still need to learn more about the significance of these different levels. Any suggestions for a good video I can watch about that? As I understand it now, the 850 hPa level is the more important one, right?
« Last Edit: August 26, 2019, 01:37:39 PM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6098 on: August 26, 2019, 02:49:37 PM »
I've made one with Total Precipitable Water, without the wind.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6099 on: August 26, 2019, 03:39:54 PM »
The European model has been hinting at the possibility of an absolute bomb cyclone in the first week of September in the Laptev - East Siberian sea region. The exceptionally warm water there would potentially add extra  intensity to a storm in that region so it's possible that we could see a record deep low pressure for September this year. However, at this time, there's no reliability in forecasts greater than 5 days so this is just something that is possible given the SSTs and atmospheric dynamics this year.