Recent development is highly interesting for a few reasons:
Watching on sat images onc can clearly see that the state of the ice worsened, means, melt is ongoing.
Watching concentration maps, the state of the ice has worsened, hence, verdict remains the same,
melt is ongoing.
In case of doubt, at current temps other than melt-pond over-freeze is barely (not) possible for saline water.
BUT at the same time Extent is stalling and the special, area is stalling as well.
What does it probably mean:
- Extent stall is due to dispersion while most ice staying above the 15% threshold for extenet
- Area is stalling because the freshwater over ice at temps below freezing has frozen
Why do images and concentration show lower numbers despite the above mentioned?
Probably because concentration is indeed lower but still higher than 15%, hence no impact at all on extent numbers, area gain is compensated by the above mentioned melt-pond-freezing.
What can we expect?
If the forecasts hold, we won't see any significant surface melt anymore.
There is a lot of room for compaction given the right weather/wind patterns. in that case we shall see further significant drops and end 2nd. If not we could flat-line with minor drops and ups and downs for weeks and see a steep start into the freezing season because gaps over large areas of dispersed ice will freeze more or less instantly once melt onset has come and we would end probably 4th (3rd would be a point landing between 2016 and 2007)
immediately and that could mean an early low for this year because if large areas freeze in one day, chances that it will melt again are minor and that means one cold night in the right spot where a lot of disperse ice is could do the job to end the melting season.
And yes, i know about bottom melt but can't quantify it and can't assess it's impact, perhaps someone else can.