Not sure I'd call a Beaufort Low with a cyclonic Beaufort Gyre + Bering high and minimal ice pack cover and wind aid, probable ekman divergence + alaska coastal downwelling and enhanced Pacific transport, wind drag across the pack, continuous cyclones in the North Atlantic with pressure gradients up currents, "best conditions I could ask for", but alrighty then!
These conditions actually favor a delay in the freezing season. And as long as this low over Beaufort stays around, or in Arctic with cyclonic Gyre, especially with the reach across Siberia/ESS and North Atlantic, I'm not really ruling anything out. I think given the next 3-5 day forecast, an "early" freezing season is probably out of the question. And I expect models to keep changing, there's a lot going on.
I, too, think the "measurements" are odd given what we can see. Maybe its semantics, maybe it's the daily artifacts from atmospheric conditions, not sure. Obviously been quite a bit of dispersion. In the context of this season, the state of the refuge of ice bordering CAA with a cyclonic gyre and wind aid is interesting (I would imagine some of the ice along ellesmere is worse than it looks, maybe not), also the atmospheric elements are likely hiding some CAB conditions on AMSR2.
Very interesting season.