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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6200 on: August 29, 2019, 05:42:38 PM »
That graphic of ice movement vectors overlaying the U. Hamburg ice map is most useful in showing that the stall in extent drop has not been caused by a stall in melting. Bottom melting has continued while the ice has been dispersed by the weather for the past week. The apparent stall isn't really good news for sea ice. The ice volume is still very low as we shall soon see in PIOMAS.

This melting season has been very interesting and complicated.

I think we are going to see one more period of extent drops. There is too much heat in the Arctic ocean for bottom melting to stop in the next week, so don't call the melting season over just yet.

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6201 on: August 29, 2019, 06:54:38 PM »
Philopek - while temperature is always a factor, at this time of year there is very little area where the arctic temp is above freezing .............

That was my point, hence I'm wondering what makes you address this at me personally. It's exactly the below freezing temp winds that made me mention it and as far as i remember, i even mentioned the widely spread temps below 0C ????

So what you say is correct while your address implies that you misinterpreted my motive ;) ;)

EDIT: Event though the force of the impact has still caught me by surprise, i remember that I was explaining the mechanisms that lead to what's happening now in quite some detail and that the first reply by "@rod" was that it's ridiculous to expect a stall and an of the race for position #1 and as we can see the impact of that reasoning was even way heavier than anyone would have dared to believe.

Mostly winds have been blowing either off-ice, means in southerly directions, and where it has not it has blown parallel to the ice-edge or in places where there was not much damage left to do and last but not least with no significant insolation and temps below freezing.

In short, I'm not at all surprised that it happens like this but I'm surprised about the scale on which it happens.

Nevertheless we shall see a few more significant drops, I'm 95% sure, let's see.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2019, 07:01:58 PM by philopek »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6202 on: August 29, 2019, 07:46:18 PM »
 Wind + Temp @ 850hPa and Total Precipitable Water
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El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6203 on: August 29, 2019, 10:11:37 PM »
pretty serious storms on both ecmwf and gfs from t+7, i attach ecmwf as it is usually more reliable...also, the storms seem to have staying power, and will hit the vulnerable sector (slushice) "above" the North Pole. Quite late, but as FoW said above, there is still lots of heat for bottom melting, so this could push the meltseason out until midSep

pauldry600

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6204 on: August 29, 2019, 10:48:22 PM »
Melting not over yet but major drops probably.

My final figure prediction of 4m back in June looks a lost cause now. I was sure we would get there or just below but 4.1 or 2 may be least now.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6205 on: August 29, 2019, 10:56:26 PM »
pretty serious storms on both ecmwf and gfs from t+7, i attach ecmwf as it is usually more reliable...also, the storms seem to have staying power, and will hit the vulnerable sector (slushice) "above" the North Pole. Quite late, but as FoW said above, there is still lots of heat for bottom melting, so this could push the meltseason out until midSep

If only the general wind pattern becomes true and even more so in case that the forecasted wind speeds become true, we shall see:

- Beaufort ice gone for good and with good sat images to watch it happen
- Significant compaction in the Laptev and perhaps another big fraction melting out there

In other words, if the general forecast comes true, we shall be around 4M km2 next weekend and shall have another week or two to go.

7 days out is a bit far out while the wind pattern starts to develop 3-4 days out while the final strength can be anything between much less or even stronger.

Also interesting is the forecasted wind pattern on the atlantic side, could be that most of the remaining ice north of Svalbard will be blown west and flushed down the toilet that is Fram strait ;)

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6206 on: August 29, 2019, 10:57:44 PM »
Maybe it's just me, and my inexperience, but I learn so much more about the ice from watching these wind animations. Temperature is important, and I look at that when I'm playing around with Nullschool, but it's the wind that's doing all the damage to the ice, and I don't get that fully with the temperature or other animations. I actually learn more from the TPW setting, because moisture is heat, and so on that animation you can see both heat and moisture, which is what feeds storms, right?

Anyway... I don't own these graphics. They are freely available online. So if anyone wants to make animations themselves, to their own liking, feel free to do so! They're really not that difficult to make.

I'm gonna stick with the wind as daily updates, and other settings from time to time. Feel free to add your own Nullschool animations!
« Last Edit: August 29, 2019, 11:24:35 PM by Freegrass »
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6207 on: August 30, 2019, 12:29:27 AM »
Mercator 0m sea temperature with unihamburg amsr2-uhh overlay at 60% transparency. amsr2 0% concentration (open water, normally dark blue) has been set to fully transparent to show sst, mar21-aug28. (best viewed full screen, double click or right click) Note the amsr2 concentration wil be affected by the overlay and should only be seen as a guide.
Processed satellite data overlaid onto model data is somewhat questionable but the images dovetail pretty well at the ice edge. (model details here https://www.mercator-ocean.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/SYSTEM-sheet-_PSY4V3R1_2017.pdf)
I don't know if the jet from the Ob river to the LaptevCAB exists but it aligns with the bathymetry and the surface ice drift.
The west spitzbergen current has struggled more this year against fram export.
CAA/CAB crack will probably continue to be low concentration ice for a while even if the winds turn northerly.
Southern end of the Beaufort arm is likely to succumb to the warmer waters of the Amundsen Gulf.
Low concentration CAB areas - Who knows? Sterks mentioned something about particle size and fluids before leaving. 'It's sea ice Jim, but not as we know it' ;)

« Last Edit: August 30, 2019, 05:46:36 PM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6208 on: August 30, 2019, 12:59:19 AM »
Looks like the pack may finally detach from Svalbard.

Thanks for the great animations uniquorn!

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6209 on: August 30, 2019, 05:03:49 AM »
Melt is still going strong. Note the sawtooth pattern at the ice edge and the swirls within the pack. Same thing is happening pretty much everywhere there is a clear view. (This image is from Aug 27. )

Looks like a lot of very small floes ready to go poof. If the melt season was 2 weeks longer I think we'd see a massive drop in numbers, but fortunately, it isn't 2 weeks longer yet. Anyone else remember when we were tracking floes like Big Block? 3m thick and 100km across? And when the Russian research scientists could camp out and build an airstrip on the ice? Seems like so long ago, but really it was just a few years ago.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6210 on: August 30, 2019, 07:28:31 AM »
Wow...no matter how this season ends I will forever remember 2019 as the year Northern Greenland was absolutely decimated in a way not seen by at least satellites. It's unbelievable to see this amount of continued destruction, under what I would mostly consider bottom melt and wave action driven by the (roughly 20 mi) gap of ocean formed earlier in this year.

 
pls!

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6211 on: August 30, 2019, 07:30:21 AM »
August 25-29.

2018.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6212 on: August 30, 2019, 07:45:58 AM »
Wow...no matter how this season ends I will forever remember 2019 as the year Northern Greenland was absolutely decimated in a way not seen by at least satellites. It's unbelievable to see this amount of continued destruction, under what I would mostly consider bottom melt and wave action driven by the (roughly 20 mi) gap of ocean formed earlier in this year.

 

I agree! This summer I've been paying attention in Nullschool to the winds coming off the Greenland Ice Sheet and heading north. These seem to be a regular factor, more common than not this summer and I suspect that the same goes for other years. So an ice-free northern coast of Greenland in summer is probably what we will see in the coming years.
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Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6213 on: August 30, 2019, 08:33:32 AM »
Wow...no matter how this season ends I will forever remember 2019 as the year Northern Greenland was absolutely decimated in a way not seen by at least satellites. It's unbelievable to see this amount of continued destruction, under what I would mostly consider bottom melt and wave action driven by the (roughly 20 mi) gap of ocean formed earlier in this year.

 

I believe the past two years before this one saw an unprecedented gain in ice on Greenland. What goes up must come down. I wouldn't call loss of ice equal to the gain of previous years a decimating loss.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6214 on: August 30, 2019, 08:42:49 AM »
Yes, I totally agree. I think this may become a new feature and I will be very interested in seeing if this area ever refreezes/recovers or if this become a new area in which landfast ice simply is not longer a norm of the region.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6215 on: August 30, 2019, 08:48:12 AM »
Wow...no matter how this season ends I will forever remember 2019 as the year Northern Greenland was absolutely decimated in a way not seen by at least satellites. It's unbelievable to see this amount of continued destruction, under what I would mostly consider bottom melt and wave action driven by the (roughly 20 mi) gap of ocean formed earlier in this year.

 

I agree! This summer I've been paying attention in Nullschool to the winds coming off the Greenland Ice Sheet and heading north. These seem to be a regular factor, more common than not this summer and I suspect that the same goes for other years. So an ice-free northern coast of Greenland in summer is probably what we will see in the coming years.

And not to forget that the Nares Strait was not blocked this year. So plenty of export and feeding in thinner ice.

Back in the record breaking year of 2012, the Nares managed to block up very early, in November 2012 - less than two months following the record low extent min.

I would be extremely surprised to see anything like that this year. Given the very low % of MYI  remaining, it's going to be very difficult to block the Nares with the possibility I might not see it happen again in my lifetime.  :(

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6216 on: August 30, 2019, 12:48:23 PM »
Aug 23-29

5d min v original Bremen

grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6217 on: August 30, 2019, 12:55:07 PM »
Far out so not accurate, but the 6z GFS shows a 958 hPa storm over the severnaya zemlya by +204h.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6218 on: August 30, 2019, 01:13:00 PM »
Latest forecast is windy, showing a storm that can't find enough heat to get organized.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6219 on: August 30, 2019, 02:34:06 PM »
The Fram export will increase, dispersion will decrease, even some compaction on the Pacific side in the next 5 days. The weather is unremarkable but the sea surface is too warm that one can expect the delay of refreeze

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6220 on: August 30, 2019, 05:44:02 PM »
There doesn't appear to be an update of the nsidc ice age map but I assume that the 'rump' of the ess arm is the remains of last year's Beaufort 'arc', see https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg221812.html#msg221812.
As bottom melt takes over from top melt, here is a look at yesterdays amsr2-uhh overlaid onto gmrt bathymetry, mercator 34m salinity (to show pacific and atlantic current) and 0m sea temperature.

Interesting to look at the jet from the river Ob through Kara to the CAB (if the model is correct)
click to run                                 edit: forgot scales
« Last Edit: August 30, 2019, 09:21:17 PM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6221 on: August 30, 2019, 07:31:46 PM »
Fantastic animation!

weatherdude88

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6222 on: August 30, 2019, 08:06:40 PM »
I can see evidence for Arctic Sea Ice losses not being above average.
What I can't see (given +ve SST and air temp anomalies) is the evidence to show why area and extent losses should be so much below average (with unusual increases on occasion).

In my subjective view, the answer is simple.

From the start of this melt season, we had record breaking anomalous ridging and warmth over the arctic. The conditions where so anomalous, we saw record sea ice extent and area retreat through August in the peripheral and easier to melt areas. The pattern was also exporting and compacting some of the sea ice at high latitudes.

Some experienced members mentioned throughout the melt season 'The central pack was not looking like it would set a new record'. Towards the end of the melt season, we saw a calming down or reversal of the pattern. There were some areas of sea ice that just melted out, that cooled down significantly, which previously had record breaking heat for months. Additionally, these same higher latitude areas that just melted, also now had reduced solar insolation. What remained was higher latitude and more difficult to melt sea ice.

The arctic is a big area. The dynamics this year where extreme, in melting easier lower latitude sea ice in certain regions of the arctic, and not the central pack. Different weather patterns and dynamics are needed to melt more of the central pack.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2019, 08:33:38 PM by weatherdude88 »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6223 on: August 30, 2019, 08:50:21 PM »
Also you look back in the thread people started reporting so-so temperatures with pretty low minimums by mid August, with concentration in the most active edge (Beaufort) not really going down.

In that sense I’ve been fooled by the 5-day minimum of Bremen, it is automated cherry picking.

The storm did inflate the pack and did not do much on the edge.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6224 on: August 30, 2019, 10:47:39 PM »
The latest five day forecast looks like a disaster for the ice if we were still in the melting season... But this is my first crossover into the freezing season, so I have no idea what this mess will do to the ice. It sure looks bad!

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6225 on: August 30, 2019, 10:52:22 PM »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6226 on: August 30, 2019, 11:01:25 PM »
Right on! :D
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« Last Edit: August 30, 2019, 11:10:11 PM by Freegrass »
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6227 on: August 30, 2019, 11:03:09 PM »
I don't know! It's a mystery to me, Freegrass.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6228 on: August 30, 2019, 11:11:10 PM »
It's a mystery to me, Freegrass.
Welcome to life! ;)
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6229 on: August 30, 2019, 11:20:35 PM »
On the last frame of the forecast there's a "line" in the wind pattern over the atlantic islands. What is that? How does that happen? Is that just something that happens with computer models, or is this a real weather phenomenon? I've seen it before. It happens a lot these freak divides. There's more than one in this frame...
« Last Edit: August 30, 2019, 11:46:16 PM by Freegrass »
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6230 on: August 31, 2019, 12:04:40 AM »
I guess it’s timely to bring the opinion of Judah Cohen. Observing medium range prognostications, it’s possible that the current slowdown of melting may continue, even bringing an early minimum. We’ll see, I think determination of the minimum requires a lot more detail, but in any case he expects limited drops in extent for the coming weeks.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6231 on: August 31, 2019, 12:07:05 AM »
On the last frame of the forecast there's a "line" in the wind pattern ...

Can you point to it with a red arrow?  I can't see what you are describing.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6232 on: August 31, 2019, 12:21:11 AM »
On the last frame of the forecast there's a "line" in the wind pattern ...
I can't see what you are describing.
Those dark blue lines (void of wind) are all over the place, dividing the wind patterns. They're so easy to see.

I'm too drunk to figure out how to draw an arrow on that image...
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6233 on: August 31, 2019, 12:37:12 AM »
I think you are seeing and asking about frontal boundaries.

Sam

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6234 on: August 31, 2019, 12:51:36 AM »
That sounds like what I'm seeing. :D
But now we're waaayyyyyyyyyyy ot...
I'll look it up tomorrow when I'm sober!
Thank you!  :)
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6235 on: August 31, 2019, 01:08:46 AM »
Is a frontal boundary a stretched out eye of a storm? (sorry Neven!)
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6236 on: August 31, 2019, 02:02:07 AM »
I only like something if I love it, something I might wish to refer to later.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6237 on: August 31, 2019, 02:09:35 AM »
Interesting in worldview today you can see through the cloud to most of the entrance/exits from the CAA to the CAB/Beaufort - there is a lot of open water now and almost no fixed ice. The wind over the last week has moved some ice out and some more ice further south in the channels. No idea about SST in the CAA and home much melting is likely, but the ice is now all mobile and susceptible to export and melting.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-1805330.0626199197,-906124.4864017944,-600594.0626199197,-252812.48640179436&p=arctic&t=2019-08-30-T01%3A50%3A52Z&l=Graticule,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels,Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6238 on: August 31, 2019, 03:02:32 AM »
The dispersal to the Pacific and Eursian sides which has driven the extent stall looks likely to turn around given the forecasts, The CAB adjacent to the western Beaufort and eastern Chukchi sea will have 20 knot winds pushing the ice north which should lead to extent drops. Any export will be via Fram strait and the Barents between Svalbard and FJI. The storms that may follow also seem likely to drive ice north from the Laptev region.

A long lag in extent drops is usually followed by a catch up period, altough since its so late it may be reflected in an extended stall in the freezing season. But temps have failed to fall much below 1C above 80N so far, and have bounced back upto about -0.5C again today - there has been nothiung to halt bottom melt, so we might see some nasty surprises in some gauzy low concentration areas if winds get as strong as (or stronger than) forecast

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6239 on: August 31, 2019, 08:05:45 AM »
The Forecast is looking destructive on day five, with a 970 hPa storm popping up that's finding a lot of energy to feed on.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6240 on: August 31, 2019, 11:45:19 AM »
Ice masses kilometers wide keep for an abyss as extent stalls through expansion.
Melt momentum remains immense through an elongated wait for swirls of ice formation.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6241 on: August 31, 2019, 02:26:30 PM »
Sea level pressure forecasts ending in Thursday superimposed to latest AMSR2 chart. From Monday low pressures seize the weakened Laptev bite area, and form a weak dipole with the American side, with moderate winds blowing across the pack. Not sure if this will make any difference on this or that direction.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6242 on: August 31, 2019, 03:36:23 PM »
Is the cyclone cannon winding up?

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6243 on: August 31, 2019, 03:37:12 PM »
Wish the entire CAB would clear so we can get a real good visual look at the ice.

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6244 on: August 31, 2019, 04:09:18 PM »
Is the cyclone cannon winding up?
I didn’t want to use more than five days. But zooming out, a lot of lows that could end up in Europe take the North toward the Arctic. They merge in the Barents/Kara/Laptev regions broadly. Even the GFS and the ECMWF see plausible that the current hurricane menacing Florida and Bahamas may have reached southern Greenland and Iceland as an extratropical in ten days, after passing over or near NYC before. All really uncertain but possible. GFS sees also this low headed northwards in +240 hours but weakening before reaching Barents sea.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2019, 04:14:20 PM by sailor »
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6245 on: August 31, 2019, 05:58:12 PM »
Everything seen and considered a minimum before the 10th of September appears to be unlikely and if that will happen we shall be below 2016 and that means most probably below 4M km2.

If the storm posted above happens similarly as forecasted there will be surprisingly high drops for the time of the year, because it would hit exactly where and in the manner that's needed to decimate the already poor Laptev-Ice-Remainder. the fact that other places will lose some ice as well during the next 5-10 days doesn't make the prediction less certain, on the contrary.

EDIT:
@ShHu, there were wide stretches of ice rubble visible on sat-imagery during the last few days
and not(hing) much has changed over the last 2-3 days. Choose a date from the links below:

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=20190614235053&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=eumetsat_natural_color&x=18167.7294921875&y=20649.22265625

https://zoom.earth/#view=80.6,-102.2,4z/date=2019-08-24,am/layers=labels,crosshairs

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=481065.626358435,-741747.5892417862,762601.5131812957,-588388.1907956966&p=arctic&t=2019-08-20-T03%3A37%3A36Z&t1=2019-08-20-T10%3A33%3A56Z&l=Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor&l1=Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor&ca=false&cm=spy

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6246 on: August 31, 2019, 08:10:18 PM »
Losses will pick up a lot for this Time of year the next 10 days
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6247 on: August 31, 2019, 08:15:30 PM »
Huge swathes of CAB ice clearly visible today in Worldview. Most of it looking pretty much like this (at 85.75, 19.57):
« Last Edit: August 31, 2019, 08:28:09 PM by Aleph_Null »

pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6248 on: August 31, 2019, 09:20:54 PM »
Super clear shot of the entire northern Greenland coast. Whatever unfolded over the last 20 days under that super thicc, low cloud deck must have been quite intense. All of the ice is just shattered in the entire region and some areas continue to slowly pull further from the coast.

The below image is more in the CAB, but I'm amazed at how clean/straight of a break the ice made:

pls!

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6249 on: August 31, 2019, 11:30:28 PM »
Losses will pick up a lot for this Time of year the next 10 days
Friv,  isn't that a bit Legolas for you?  :)