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Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6250 on: September 01, 2019, 05:51:40 AM »
The ice looks like shit!

Extent has an 85% margin of error. 

Regardless of where the extent numbers turn out this year, the actual amount of ice is about as low as it has ever been.  It is obvious to anyone who takes the time to study Worldview. 





sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6251 on: September 01, 2019, 06:20:45 AM »
I guess it’s timely to bring the opinion of Judah Cohen. Observing medium range prognostications, it’s possible that the current slowdown of melting may continue, even bringing an early minimum. We’ll see, I think determination of the minimum requires a lot more detail, but in any case he expects limited drops in extent for the coming weeks.

He's been reporting on the GEFS for Polar Cap Height and on a regular schedule.  This habit has embarrassed him repeatedly, when GEFS has predicted a strengthening Arctic Oscillation. 

This must be getting annoying

It won't look like that in 380 hours.  That is not the point.  This is one member doing what GFS is good at and warning of high latitude blocking type action Sept 16-18  The last one predicted is still incoming, Sept 2.  Timing is at 2 weeks.  If there's more to come we're into month FIVE and looks increasingly like The entire atmosphere is going bananas very quickly
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miki

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6252 on: September 01, 2019, 07:17:47 AM »
The ice looks like shit!

Scientifically speaking.
How not to agree.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6253 on: September 01, 2019, 07:41:35 AM »
My thoughts from the other thread about the "mysterious" abrupt stop in ice loss.


Nope.

Not going to get much ice loss in late August with a reverse dipole. This should have been expected weeks ago on the main thread.

The pattern going back almost 10 days has been great for the ice

The models are picking up a mini vortex dominant dipole for the next week.

So September loses will probably be above average.

But the slowdown would have happened any time during the melting season with weather that perfect for it
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6254 on: September 01, 2019, 08:23:54 AM »
August 27-31.

2018.

Additionally: August 1-31 (fast).

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6255 on: September 01, 2019, 08:34:55 AM »
The Five Day Forecast is proving yet again that it's completely unreliable sometimes... If someone seeds a storm somewhere, to make it rain, it changes the entire balance in the atmosfeer, right? Everything is connected... Heck, you could even steer hurricanes if you had reliable computer models that could predict what would happen if you seed a storm somewhere in the world, no? This has been the third hurricane that I know of that completely changed its course away from the most danger to America since that guy entered office...

I'm happy to discuss this somewhere else! Just let me know where...
« Last Edit: September 01, 2019, 10:56:45 AM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6256 on: September 01, 2019, 09:08:25 AM »
Additionally: August 1-31 (fast).
These animation are great Aluminium! What I've learned so far from August is that my prediction for the ESS ice sucked, the one from the "Karptev" sea was not too bad - although again I would have thought a little more ice would have been lost - and my latest Svalbard prediction (in my head) was pretty much spot on. So I'm getting better at this...  ;D But I have still soooo much to learn... Thanks for the graphics!
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meddoc

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6257 on: September 01, 2019, 09:25:20 AM »

He's been reporting on the GEFS for Polar Cap Height and on a regular schedule.  This habit has embarrassed him repeatedly, when GEFS has predicted a strengthening Arctic Oscillation. 

This must be getting annoying

It won't look like that in 380 hours.  That is not the point.  This is one member doing what GFS is good at and warning of high latitude blocking type action Sept 16-18  The last one predicted is still incoming, Sept 2.  Timing is at 2 weeks.  If there's more to come we're into month FIVE and looks increasingly like The entire atmosphere is going bananas very quickly

Those Lows should be forming the PV, but the relentless Heat Influx rips it apart, immediately after it starts to form some kind of single Structure.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6258 on: September 01, 2019, 09:57:53 AM »
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6259 on: September 01, 2019, 02:38:10 PM »


I'm happy to discuss this somewhere else! Just let me know where...

Anywhere but here...

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6260 on: September 01, 2019, 04:02:16 PM »
Aug 25-31

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6261 on: September 01, 2019, 06:14:04 PM »
If the AO doesn't strengthen going into month FIVE?
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6262 on: September 01, 2019, 07:55:44 PM »
The Five Day Forecast is looking nasty...
That pacific storm has finally found a way through the Bering strait...
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6263 on: September 02, 2019, 09:58:25 AM »
I am eyeballing Worldview daily for evidence of freezing between floes in the CAB, as temperatures are beginning to dip into that region.

None as of yet.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6264 on: September 02, 2019, 11:25:08 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
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Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6265 on: September 02, 2019, 01:08:30 PM »
Ghost ice in the Beaufort today.

IceConcerned

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6266 on: September 02, 2019, 01:48:01 PM »
That cyclone entering from Svalbard, giving then a round through FJL to pole to Fram will be interesting to watch. Strong winds over fragmented ice all along....

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6267 on: September 02, 2019, 02:08:05 PM »
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6268 on: September 02, 2019, 02:34:28 PM »
Wind + Temp @ 1000hPa
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grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6269 on: September 02, 2019, 02:38:38 PM »
@Freegrass: When every other post is a forecast animation, it might be a bit much. It takes a lot of space. Maybe you can just post links to the animations hosted at a different place?

Adam Ash

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6270 on: September 02, 2019, 02:43:01 PM »
Fram export looking fairly extreme this evening? (Depicting surface winds at 30 to 60 km/h southbound.)
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 02:48:41 PM by Adam Ash »

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6271 on: September 02, 2019, 03:24:40 PM »
I am eyeballing Worldview daily for evidence of freezing between floes in the CAB, as temperatures are beginning to dip into that region.

None as of yet.

Looking at GFS 10 day forecasts at Climate Reanalyser you see a small area of cold form repeated going down to around -7C and then dissipated again by another warm influx, all the way through the forecast, so refreeze is going to be limited for now- and then theres the wind to come with storms . Eve if losses are limited  nad the pack freezes over the gaps, after the long August lag the waters around are all anomously warm, so significant extent increases are a long way off

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6272 on: September 02, 2019, 04:24:53 PM »
Aug 26 - Sep 1

5-day per-pixel minimum v. original Bremen concentration

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6273 on: September 02, 2019, 04:30:19 PM »
@Freegrass: When every other post is a forecast animation, it might be a bit much. It takes a lot of space. Maybe you can just post links to the animations hosted at a different place?

It's not much, how could it?

Many come here to see as "much" as possible.

Just use a computer instead of a mobile phone and it won't matter.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6274 on: September 02, 2019, 04:56:15 PM »
Ghost ice in the Beaufort today.

Indeed. Ice is definitely "$&!^", as someone said.

https://go.nasa.gov/2PBtSWC

It's fantastic how extent and area stalled so dramatically, even while continued melting is apparent (and before refreeze has really started). PIOMAS also has known limitations for thin ice. It seems that, as the ice continues to thin Arctic-wide and the weather goes bonkers in different ways, we don't have any good way to measure actual melt. I imagine this state of affairs could make for a pretty shocking year... eventually. But I'll go out on a limb and predict that it won't be this year.  :P

PS. Re: Freegrass' animations. I think grixm was referring to storage space on the server. I don't know if this is actually a problem, as I've never seen Neven mention it (if so please do). And there are a large number of downloads of Fregrass' products, so I'd suggest he keeps it up!

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6275 on: September 02, 2019, 05:23:17 PM »
@Freegrass: When every other post is a forecast animation, it might be a bit much. It takes a lot of space. Maybe you can just post links to the animations hosted at a different place?

Respectfully disagree, Grixm. Seeing them on a daily basis has value to me.

Freegrass, i hope you keep them coming. :)
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6276 on: September 02, 2019, 06:09:24 PM »
Mercator model sea ice thickness.

August, 2 days increments, last frame forecast for the 11.09.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6277 on: September 02, 2019, 06:23:12 PM »
Very little yellows and greens left.  :(

Nullschool suggesting double digit negative figures over the central Arctic in 4 days time.

Nascent freeze season there, while other parts continue to melt.... 

grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6278 on: September 02, 2019, 06:25:07 PM »
It's not much, how could it?

Many come here to see as "much" as possible.

Just use a computer instead of a mobile phone and it won't matter.

I am using a computer, so it does matter to me. It just makes it hard to differentiate other posts as they often appear as only a thin sliver between screen-heights worth of sameish looking content. At least maybe he can combine them into one post a day instead of three separate ones.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 06:39:37 PM by grixm »

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6279 on: September 02, 2019, 07:50:11 PM »
Hmmm...

How did this happen? Tides is the best i can think of.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6280 on: September 02, 2019, 09:26:04 PM »
The temperature is dropping again, but the wind seems to be doing some damage, because extent is dropping as well.
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bluesky

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6281 on: September 02, 2019, 09:29:38 PM »
Fram export looking fairly extreme this evening? (Depicting surface winds at 30 to 60 km/h southbound.)

Just wonder whether it might start a bit too South to have a real impact, ans there is not really a transpolar drift to sustain a stream of ice getting toward Fram strait

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6282 on: September 02, 2019, 10:15:04 PM »
The Latest Forecast is looking increasingly more windy. If that 981 hPa storm can find some more of that Russian heat, this could still get ugly really fast! Right? Am I reading that correctly? Still learning...
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Paul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6283 on: September 03, 2019, 01:09:36 AM »
I'm not sure if things will get ugly as the low will be a cold one and I be surprised given the area numbers stabilising we will see any huge surprises in extent(i'm leaning more and more extent will stay above 4 million now). It would seem the more compact looking CAB may of played a role why extent is not worse than it is now but as some others have said, the conditions in the 2nd part of August was perfect for ice retention as no doubt the end of August 2016 pattern would of lead to a much lower extent with that mega dipole that occured then(the total opposite to what happened in the last 2 weeks).

Weather patterns don't look too favourable for any early refreeze or anything that may suggest a significant cool down of the Arctic SST's to the next couple of months could well be interesting for different reasons!

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6284 on: September 03, 2019, 02:14:16 AM »
The 18z GFS has Dorian's extratropical remnant impacting the Atlantic Front at Day 11 or so. This is very far out but it is likely going to happen IMO, though the exact timing may be different. It should be something to watch out for.

marcel_g

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6285 on: September 03, 2019, 03:39:31 AM »
Ghost ice in the Beaufort today.

Indeed. Ice is definitely "$&!^", as someone said.

https://go.nasa.gov/2PBtSWC

It's fantastic how extent and area stalled so dramatically, even while continued melting is apparent (and before refreeze has really started). PIOMAS also has known limitations for thin ice. It seems that, as the ice continues to thin Arctic-wide and the weather goes bonkers in different ways, we don't have any good way to measure actual melt. I imagine this state of affairs could make for a pretty shocking year... eventually. But I'll go out on a limb and predict that it won't be this year.  :P

PS. Re: Freegrass' animations. I think grixm was referring to storage space on the server. I don't know if this is actually a problem, as I've never seen Neven mention it (if so please do). And there are a large number of downloads of Fregrass' products, so I'd suggest he keeps it up!

Uh, wow. I don't remember seeing it all look like rubble right up to Ellesmere Island. Basically nothing bigger than 10km across. The era of Big Blocks, at 100 km across, appears to be long gone. And that was only 2015. Or 2016, I'm not sure, I'm getting old and senile probably.

The central pack might hold on for a few years as rubble like that, but it really seems like a glass of water where the ice cubes are all almost melted. The water is still 0C and the surface is still mostly ice, but the ice volume is gone, and as soon as the last ice disappears, the temperatures will shoot up dramatically and non-linearly.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6286 on: September 03, 2019, 05:39:19 AM »
Aug 27 - Sep 2

5-day per-pixel minimum v. original Bremen concentration

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6287 on: September 03, 2019, 06:33:10 AM »
August 29 - September 2.

2018.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6288 on: September 03, 2019, 07:00:11 AM »
I'm not sure if things will get ugly as the low will be a cold one
Hi Paul. Your second name isn't Beckwith by any chance? That would be an honor! :)
When you say "this is a cold one", are you talking about the resident CAB low, or the new one that came off Norway, and joined the resident low? Looking at these images, you can see how it's sucking in warm moist air from Russia. This air is the engine for that low. no? The more heat it sucks in, the stronger it gets?

I need to continue watching this lecture and learn some more, but I haven't had the time yet...
Anyone familiar with this lecture?

Edit: Already on Lecture 6 now: Introduction to convective storms. This is really interesting! He explains everything clearly in detail, from the ground up. Perfect for someone like me, with only basic knowledge about the "weather".
« Last Edit: September 03, 2019, 10:57:26 AM by Freegrass »
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6289 on: September 03, 2019, 09:13:59 AM »
Marcel you are correct, it was 2015 we watched "Big Block" spin its way to oblivion in the Beaufort. Since then I have seen nothing even similar to how robust that ice was.

We are probably unlikely to again in our lifetimes.

Iain

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6290 on: September 03, 2019, 09:26:29 AM »
Cloud free image of the CAA from Worldview, I think I'll frame it and put it on the wall.

More importantly there has been no Southward movement of ice from the CAB into the clear blue water in the last couple of days, despite a Northerly wind.

Wind is forecast to continue to from the North and strengthen for the next couple of days, also the Ice can stay mobile into early October, so there is still time for the CAB to populate the channels with floes.

However, if not, there will only be salty 1st year ice there, ready for an early breakup next year.
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DavidR

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6291 on: September 03, 2019, 11:53:31 AM »
The NOAA-ESRL temperatures for August are out and show just  how warm the Arctic was over summer.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl
The first  number is the ranking and the number in brackets the variation from the record. This shows air temperatures at  record levels in August and over summer (Jun-Aug). SST were near record in the same period.  Globally 2019 is running second or 3rd warmest. This does nothing to  explain the flatlining of extent  loss but  suggests that the melt  could continue over the next few weeks.

                         August        Summer         YTD
Air 80N+           1 (+0.134)   1 (+0.482)     6 (-1.619)
SST 80N+         2 (-0.027)    1 (+0.007)     11 (-2.114)

Air 67N+           1 (+0.630)   1 (+0.229)    2 (-0.795)
SST 67N+         3 (-0.056)    1 (+0.277)    3 (-0.918)

Air Global          2 (-0.039)    2 (-0.032)     2 (-0.164)
SST Global        4 (-0.153)    2 (-0.113)     3 (-0.174)
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oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6292 on: September 03, 2019, 12:14:49 PM »
Marcel you are correct, it was 2015 we watched "Big Block" spin its way to oblivion in the Beaufort. Since then I have seen nothing even similar to how robust that ice was.

We are probably unlikely to again in our lifetimes.
Actually it was 2016...

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6293 on: September 03, 2019, 01:28:11 PM »
Wind @ Surface and Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6294 on: September 03, 2019, 01:30:59 PM »
Thanks oren, I stand corrected!

Iain

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6295 on: September 03, 2019, 03:49:53 PM »
2019 extent is back in 3rd place.
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Iain

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6296 on: September 03, 2019, 03:52:18 PM »
...Also my post count is stuck again,  at 54 this time. I'll never get past being a crystal....
: )

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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6297 on: September 03, 2019, 05:01:52 PM »
I guess most of this ice - north of Greenland - will get blown towards the Fram strait with the predicted strong winds in the coming days?
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MyACIsDying

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6298 on: September 03, 2019, 05:42:01 PM »
Worldview 1-3 Sept shows a 15-30 km movement of that cracked ice towards fram, with a week of potentially ideal fram export winds I'm curious as well

Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #6299 on: September 03, 2019, 06:13:57 PM »
Fast ice gripping north Greenland (just left of center). I'm interested in these stuck chunks.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2019, 06:25:45 PM by Aleph_Null »