The 2019 melting season

[gandul]

It is interesting to note that there is a pattern to the very bad years of 2007, 2012, 2016, and 2019.

The first "bad" year was 2007. It took five years for 2012 to happen. It took four years for 2016 to happen. It took three years for 2019 to happen.

Perhaps it is nonsense, but that would put 4M KM^2 minimum as "normal" come 2021 (two years after 2019, and then we are down to one year separating these instances, i.e. it becomes each and every year), with each year thereafter likely to achieve a max under 2019, 2016, and 2007.

It should also be noted the last minimum above 5M KM^2 looks to be 2009. That is potentially about 11 years between the last minimum above 5M KM^2 and the last minimum above 4M KM^2 (using the step-trend above, that year would be 2020, or it may have already occurred).

We cannot say whether the remaining decline will follow on the same gradual continuum. Below 4M KM^2, the area / volume discrepancy inherently favors massive drops in area relative to volume as 0 is approached. I would think that there will not be another 11 years between the last 4M KM^2 min and the last 3M KM^2 min.

Does that mean we are approaching an asymptote at 4 M?

And what is the approximate area of Arctic Ocean with depth>100m ?
That simple thought has more meat from a physics point of view than the 07 12 16 19 thing (cute signature though).
Of course the Arctic resists melting because warm water sinks at the shelves breaks. The core is not only atmospherically more protected, it does not get ocean heat at all either!
But my feeling is that a summer with a very ice-dispersive weather like 2016 will eventually melt most of it.

[philopek]

But my feeling is that a summer with a very ice-dispersive weather like 2016 will eventually melt most of it.

I think that if we want to get an idea as to what has to happen so that we can't dodge all the bullets anymore, i'd suggest to focus on the melting season of 2007.

2007 was a year when there was a lot of thick MYI, no comparable preconditioning the way we have it now and nevertheless we reached almost the same level of extent like this year.

IMO 2007 beats 2012 in the way that albeit 2012 was a perfect melt year of course, it followed 2007, 1010 and 2011 that have already damaged the ice in certain ways while 2007 did almost the same, starting with way healthier conditions overall.

I could imagine that 2007 has been one of the years with very high losses from max to min, while nowadays we start almost every season with relative low volume, area and extent.

In short, once the summer of 2007 shall repeat, we gonna see something new i'm sure.

[Thomas Barlow]

What's that?  4th lowest on record?

Yup, and currently 3rd lowest for JAXA/ViSHOP extent.

And now 3rd lowest on NSIDC.

[Jim Hunt]

I've discovered that Peter Wadhams has just made a new preprint available via ResearchGate on my favourite, and his specialist, subject - Waves in ice!

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334223747_Wave-ice_interaction_in_the_North-West_Barents_Sea

The field work was performed in the Barents Sea, and the main focus of the paper is on wave processes in the MIZ. A model of wave damping in broken ice is formulated and applied to interpret the field work results. It is confirmed that waves of higher frequencies are subjected to stronger damping when they propagate below the ice. This reduces the frequency of most energetic wave with increasing distance from the ice edge. Difference of wave spectra measured in two relatively close locations within the MIZ is discussed. The complicated geometry and dynamics of the MIZ in the North-West Barents Sea allow waves from the Atlantic Ocean and south regions of the Barents Sea to penetrate into different locations of the MIZ.

[Aleph_Null]

Hottest summer on record, I've heard.

[binntho]

And what is the approximate area of Arctic Ocean with depth>100m ?
That simple thought has more meat from a physics point of view than the 07 12 16 19 thing (cute signature though).
Of course the Arctic resists melting because warm water sinks at the shelves breaks. The core is not only atmospherically more protected, it does not get ocean heat at all either!
But my feeling is that a summer with a very ice-dispersive weather like 2016 will eventually melt most of it.

Although it sounds compelling, I've never really been convinced by the bathymetry argument, i.e. that deeper waters somehow protect surface ice.

The main objections I have are as follow:

1) Warm water does not sink

[Aluminium]

September 13-17.

2018.

[Jim Hunt]

Despite the "new ice" shown on the stage of development charts JAXA/ViSHOP extent is down slightly once again:

3.96 million km² to be precise!

[gandul]

And what is the approximate area of Arctic Ocean with depth>100m ?
That simple thought has more meat from a physics point of view than the 07 12 16 19 thing (cute signature though).
Of course the Arctic resists melting because warm water sinks at the shelves breaks. The core is not only atmospherically more protected, it does not get ocean heat at all either!
But my feeling is that a summer with a very ice-dispersive weather like 2016 will eventually melt most of it.

Although it sounds compelling, I've never really been convinced by the bathymetry argument, i.e. that deeper waters somehow protect surface ice.

The main objections I have are as follow:

1) Warm water does not sink

You objected to my incorrect statement with another incorrect statement.
I was talking about salty warm water that carries heat from the south into the Arctic. I don't think that floats.

[binntho]

And what is the approximate area of Arctic Ocean with depth>100m ?
That simple thought has more meat from a physics point of view than the 07 12 16 19 thing (cute signature though).
Of course the Arctic resists melting because warm water sinks at the shelves breaks. The core is not only atmospherically more protected, it does not get ocean heat at all either!
But my feeling is that a summer with a very ice-dispersive weather like 2016 will eventually melt most of it.

Although it sounds compelling, I've never really been convinced by the bathymetry argument, i.e. that deeper waters somehow protect surface ice.

The main objections I have are as follow:

1) Warm water does not sink

You objected to my incorrect statement with another incorrect statement.
I was talking about salty warm water that carries heat from the south into the Arctic. I don't think that floats.

Maybe we are getting a bit OT here, but seeing as how the salty warm water has floated on the surface the 10.000 or so km from the Caribbean Sea to the shores of Svalbard, over ocean depths that mostly match if not exceed that of the CAB, why it should it suddenly start to take heed of the ocean floor is something I don't really get.

[slow wing]

... something I don't really get.

Suggest asking about it in the Stupid Questions thread, as plenty here do get it.


Short answer:

1) Salinity is more important than temperature in determining water density; and

2) The Arctic Ocean at its surface is less saline than the other oceans.

[Thomas Barlow]

Sorry, about 4th lowest?  I keep forgetting about 2007.
NSIDC

[bosbas]

Comparing Sept 17 between 2007 and 2019 on Worldview shows nicely the difference in ice floe size around Prince Patrick - quite a difference.

[gandul]

Maybe we are getting a bit OT here, but seeing as how the salty warm water has floated on the surface the 10.000 or so km from the Caribbean Sea to the shores of Svalbard, over ocean depths that mostly match if not exceed that of the CAB, why it should it suddenly start to take heed of the ocean floor is something I don't really get.

smh 
Binntho I get your point, I don't know what I'm talking about or you just wanna be a pest for me.

Now let's go back on topic for a day or two more.

[Aleph_Null]

Updated full-size versions available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg228895.html#msg228895

Hindcast: 9/14 to 9/18, Forecast: 9/18 to 9/22. Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (tiny version)

[Juan C. García]

Sorry, about 4th lowest?  I keep forgetting about 2007.
NSIDC

Yes. It seems wrong that NSIDC keeps 2019 above 2007. It doesn't match with what we see on ADS NIPR (JAXA), even that we know that NSIDC has less accuracy on their measurement.

[Tom_Mazanec]

I believe water is densest at several degrees above freezing.

[F.Tnioli]

I believe water is densest at several degrees above freezing.

3.98°C, yes, and it's nothing to believe into. Few more details. It's one measurable constant and anyone with even basic thermometer, freezer, any kind of a large (5+ L) hermetically sealable bottle, and not entirely flat surface of their brain - can measure it themselves in home conditions, if they so wish...

[Iain]

2019 on 4.220 Million km2

Next nearest minima are: 2016 4.165; 2007 4.163. 4.155

"Here's the throw, here's the play at the plate, Holy cow....."
[/quote

STOP RIGHT THERE!!! ........]

"Let me sleep on it...."

At 4.170 today

[Phil.]

And what is the approximate area of Arctic Ocean with depth>100m ?
That simple thought has more meat from a physics point of view than the 07 12 16 19 thing (cute signature though).
Of course the Arctic resists melting because warm water sinks at the shelves breaks. The core is not only atmospherically more protected, it does not get ocean heat at all either!
But my feeling is that a summer with a very ice-dispersive weather like 2016 will eventually melt most of it.

Although it sounds compelling, I've never really been convinced by the bathymetry argument, i.e. that deeper waters somehow protect surface ice.

The main objections I have are as follow:

1) Warm water does not sink

Warm salty water does compared with freshwater, the surface of the Arctic ocean is less salty than the surface.  Melt water from FYI is saltier than that from older ice.

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/characteristics/brine_salinity.html

[Phil.]

Sorry, about 4th lowest?  I keep forgetting about 2007.
NSIDC

Yes. It seems wrong that NSIDC keeps 2019 above 2007. It doesn't match with what we see on ADS NIPR (JAXA), even that we know that NSIDC has less accuracy on their measurement.

If you look at the daily data rather than Chartic, which is a running average, you'll see that 2019 is below both 2007 and 2016 minima.

[Phil.]

I believe water is densest at several degrees above freezing.

3.98°C, yes, and it's nothing to believe into. Few more details. It's one measurable constant and anyone with even basic thermometer, freezer, any kind of a large (5+ L) hermetically sealable bottle, and not entirely flat surface of their brain - can measure it themselves in home conditions, if they so wish...

True for distilled water not for salt water.

[RoxTheGeologist]

And what is the approximate area of Arctic Ocean with depth>100m ?
That simple thought has more meat from a physics point of view than the 07 12 16 19 thing (cute signature though).
Of course the Arctic resists melting because warm water sinks at the shelves breaks. The core is not only atmospherically more protected, it does not get ocean heat at all either!
But my feeling is that a summer with a very ice-dispersive weather like 2016 will eventually melt most of it.

Although it sounds compelling, I've never really been convinced by the bathymetry argument, i.e. that deeper waters somehow protect surface ice.

The main objections I have are as follow:

1) Warm water does not sink

If the warm water is more saline it does.

[uniquorn]

As the arctic cools down ascat picks up less weather 'interference' and begins to show a clearer image of the ice edge. This recent 'weather' north of greenland is interesting though. day251-260

[DavidR]

Sorry, about 4th lowest?  I keep forgetting about 2007.
NSIDC

Yes. It seems wrong that NSIDC keeps 2019 above 2007. It doesn't match with what we see on ADS NIPR (JAXA), even that we know that NSIDC has less accuracy on their measurement.

If you look at the daily data rather than Chartic, which is a running average, you'll see that 2019 is below both 2007 and 2016 minima.

The NSIDC 5 day average is still 16K above the 2007 minimum and 6K above the 2016 minimum. It will take a day or two around 4.1M km^2 to drop 2019 below the other two years but  I expect that to happen based on the picture from worldview.

[philopek]

Sorry, about 4th lowest?  I keep forgetting about 2007.
NSIDC

Yes. It seems wrong that NSIDC keeps 2019 above 2007. It doesn't match with what we see on ADS NIPR (JAXA), even that we know that NSIDC has less accuracy on their measurement.

I thought this is because it's a 5 day trailing average and sinde 2019 was higher than 2007 a few days ago this would make sense.

Tell me if i'm wrong, it's important to get rid of eventual errors.

[Juan C. García]

I was questioning myself about this subject a couple of days ago (looking if NSIDC 2019 Sept average will be greater or lower than 2007). I made the following graph, which starts on August 15th and ends on September 30th.

These are daily values, not 5-day trailing average. Afterward, NSIDC ASI grew 50K and then drop 100K km².

If you see ADS NIPR, 2019 has been below 2007 almost all September.

[Jim Hunt]

JAXA/ViSHOP extent has just increased marginally, and now measures 3.98 million km²:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/the-2019-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/#Sep-19

That puts the (very!) tentative minimum for 2019 at 3.96 million km² on September 17th.

Has the 2019/20 freezing season begun yet?!

[Jim Hunt]

If you look at the daily data rather than Chartic, which is a running average, you'll see that 2019 is below both 2007 and 2016 minima.

Not according to my spreadsheet, which has 4.08 million km² for 2016 versus 4.1 this year.

A "statistical tie" I suppose, but am I in possession of some stale data?

[sark]

Wow

7 day forecast was completely off on the intensity of the past week.  Atmospheric heights over the North Pole grew and grew and plunged the AO index deeply negative just now.  Rainfall amounts have been insane under these "troughs" or as I like to call them:  Fragments of the Polar Cell.

I can promise you this.  The weather will *suck*

[sark]

This is a new look at what is actually happening now that we are in it

click to run.  watch this gif, let it load.  a blob crosses the pole and interacts with another blob on the other side of the planet.

This is a joke already.

[Aluminium]

August 18 - September 18 (fast).

[blumenkraft]

This is a GIF showing the most northern tip of the Kane Basin.

The first frame is 14.09. SST was well above zero in vast parts of the basin on that day. Now with a lot of cold water coming from the north, SST has cooled down abruptly (according to Mercator and Windy).

Winter is coming!

[El Cid]

This is a new look at what is actually happening now that we are in it

click to run.  watch this gif, let it load.  a blob crosses the pole and interacts with another blob on the other side of the planet.

This is a joke already.

Could you enlighten us to the exact meaning of this joke? I usually have a very hard time deciphering your posts and this one is no different.
 For us, non meteorologists, a short addition to your posts would be helpful where you explain how and what effects you see on the Arctic, based on your graphs.

[Paddy]

JAXA/ViSHOP extent has just increased marginally, and now measures 3.98 million km²:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/the-2019-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/#Sep-19

That puts the (very!) tentative minimum for 2019 at 3.96 million km² on September 17th.

Has the 2019/20 freezing season begun yet?!

I wouldn't quite call it yet. The remaining loss last year would still be enough for a new minimum. Perhaps in another day or two with further rises.

[grixm]

The albedo warming potential for the season ended up at an easy record high for the entire arctic, but in the end fell short of 2012 in the high arctic.

[Phil.]

If you look at the daily data rather than Chartic, which is a running average, you'll see that 2019 is below both 2007 and 2016 minima.

Not according to my spreadsheet, which has 4.08 million km² for 2016 versus 4.1 this year.

A "statistical tie" I suppose, but am I in possession of some stale data?

I don't know Jim the data I looked at shows 2016,  09,  09,      4.147 as the minimum.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/N_seaice_extent_daily_v3.0.csv

[Iain]

Chartic puts 2019 at 4.153 Million km^2, 2nd place in the satellite record.


https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

[dnem]

This is a new look at what is actually happening now that we are in it

click to run.  watch this gif, let it load.  a blob crosses the pole and interacts with another blob on the other side of the planet.

This is a joke already.

Could you enlighten us to the exact meaning of this joke? I usually have a very hard time deciphering your posts and this one is no different.
 For us, non meteorologists, a short addition to your posts would be helpful where you explain how and what effects you see on the Arctic, based on your graphs.

I too would appreciate some more context and commentary on this sort of meteorological post.

[DavidR]

If you look at the daily data rather than Chartic, which is a running average, you'll see that 2019 is below both 2007 and 2016 minima.

Not according to my spreadsheet, which has 4.08 million km² for 2016 versus 4.1 this year.

A "statistical tie" I suppose, but am I in possession of some stale data?

I  had the same figure but  I  think NSIDC has updated the figures since then.  It certainly  not in  the current data. According to the current data the five day average (4.1532) is just slightly lower than 2007 (4.1544) and 2016 (4.1654).  Statistically  identical.

[gerontocrat]

If you look at the daily data rather than Chartic, which is a running average, you'll see that 2019 is below both 2007 and 2016 minima.

Not according to my spreadsheet, which has 4.08 million km² for 2016 versus 4.1 this year.

A "statistical tie" I suppose, but am I in possession of some stale data?

I  had the same figure but  I  think NSIDC has updated the figures since then.  It certainly  not in  the current data. According to the current data the five day average (4.1532) is just slightly lower than 2007 (4.1544) and 2016 (4.1654).  Statistically  identical.

Huh! Data in the melting thread. and I was told off some time ago for making remarks about the weather in the data thread.

Huff-&-Puff!! Such rank hypocrisy !!! And from Jim Hunt, of all people !!!!!.

Shame on you all !!!
________________________________
Such fun being a Grumpy Old Man

[Thomas Barlow]

Sorry, about 4th lowest?  I keep forgetting about 2007.
NSIDC

Yes. It seems wrong that NSIDC keeps 2019 above 2007. It doesn't match with what we see on ADS NIPR (JAXA), even that we know that NSIDC has less accuracy on their measurement.

Yes, although 'accuracy' in this topic is a matter of opinion. Choose any system, and call it accurate, then apply the usual margin of error required by science, and it's all very approximate.
It's all about comparing apples to apples, and system A to system A, but not to system B.

[Oscillidous]

This is a new look at what is actually happening now that we are in it

I find it fascinating how you always seem to post, yet you never seem to articulate whatever it is you're trying to say. People hardly ever respond, especially posters here who do seem to understand what it its they're saying. Do you just repeat what you read elsewhere?

I mean no disrespect, I just have a hard time understanding the motive

[bbr2314]

This is a new look at what is actually happening now that we are in it

I find it fascinating how you always seem to post, yet you never seem to articulate whatever it is you're trying to say. People hardly ever respond, especially posters here who do seem to understand what it its they're saying. Do you just repeat what you read elsewhere?

I mean no disrespect, I just have a hard time understanding the motive

I understand sark's post, he articulates perfectly fine.

[Niall Dollard]

I  had the same figure but  I  think NSIDC has updated the figures since then.  It certainly  not in  the current data. According to the current data the five day average (4.1532) is just slightly lower than 2007 (4.1544) and 2016 (4.1654).  Statistically  identical.

NSIDC consider values within 40,000 square kilometers (15,000 square miles) as "tied". This from 12 months ago (at bottom of Table 1):

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/09/

[sark]

When was the last time the jet stream regularly reached the North Pole from both sides of the planet simultaneously besides the 16 times it happened this year?  (Jan 2014?)

What's the difference from prior years?  Now it's symmetrical and intense and unlike any weather ever recorded.

Whiplash hot/cold with 7" of rain in a pop up thundercloud, wiping out whole counties.  There are squall lines with outburst that knock down enough crops to require adding it to the spreadsheet.  108.7f in Paris? 

It's a funny failure of human dignity to observe it, until it arrests their personal experience.  The hero of the story is a fool.  It's the technique of a joke. 

Why would anyone think a completely split, dual polar cell that breaks up into pieces that fling out of the Arctic is a system we can count on to die slowly?

Apparently packets of vorticity in the Arctic will fling out and become tremendous storms as we watch tropical height atmosphere establish & grow over the North Pole first.

Well, whatever happens, do you agree that you and I both have the opportunity to observe it?

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp

here's our bad guy: https://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/09/10/0000Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/anim=off/orthographic=-90.45,90.52,547

The polar cell is failing.

[sark]

You'll notice that actual air temperatures are often colder over land than over the Arctic.  Now we got a major dynamic polar shit storm going on.  Sometimes that makes me laugh, but not often. 

Potential temperature is a pressure level which speaks more to the dynamics of the atmosphere than they do to "global warming".  Because instead of a pinwheel centered mostly over the Arctic Ocean, it's a fidget spinner with dual Arctic systems.

are they gonna do the Fujiwhara and maintain position over the pole?  no way.

[wdmn]

@Sark

I also find your posting style cryptic and in that sense frustrating. But your gif of changes in temperature at 1000mb over the last 9 winters, and particularly the last 3 cannot be ignored... I only wish there were more people talking about what it means...

[sark]

May Day, 2019

We saw a sample of this back in November and again in January.  That was a result of Sudden Stratospheric Warming #1 of winter 2018/2019.  Then we experienced a 2nd at the final warming of the winter polar vortex.  It died very badly in 2019 in a SSW, 2nd of the year.

Yearly average is 0.6 sudden stratospheric warmings.

This is Eemian weather.  2019 is too much already.

So far this year has been alarmingly off the charts abnormal in every aspect.  that's why I'm not explaining this much, because I'm pretty convinced it doesn't make a difference

But FWIW it's been lining up as a quadrupole.  It's ok to say quadrupole.  It's in Mitchell 2013.

[sark]

@Sark

I also find your posting style cryptic and in that sense frustrating. But your gif of changes in temperature at 1000mb over the last 9 winters, and particularly the last 3 cannot be ignored... I only wish there were more people talking about what it means...

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