The results are in.
The question was, "Will the 'old' ice that recently entered Nares Strait get to Baffin Bay before new 'old' ice enters the Strait?" In the first post, the details of the question were fleshed out, identifying certain "circled bits of 'old' ice" as being 'one' of the contestants; once broken up, these were later labeled "Remnants" and "Matched Pair". Some qualifying 'old' ice broke off the Lincoln Polynya arch about March 3
rd and was labeled "D Day Ice".
Remnants crossed into Baffin Bay before D Day Ice crossed into Nares Strait, but Marched Pair didn't.
Therefore, I declare those who voted "No: the arch around the Lincoln Sea Polynya will break (soon)" the winners. (I'm not one of them.)
In the
DMI Sentinel images dated 2019-03-19 (screen prints thereof included below), D Day Ice is circled as are the two parts of Matched Pair.
The race was close, until the Matched Pair got stuck in temporarily fast ice (then released yesterday). It was exciting when D Day Ice was blown northwards within the Lincoln Sea for a couple days. And we had a nice distraction with "Slowpoke", until I realized it wasn't in the competition (also temporarily stuck in fast ice and subsequently released).
To anybody who wants to track D Day Ice, and its relation to the very recently mobilized "North Rim Floes", I suggest you (we) do so in the
Nares Strait thread (as at least one person missed our presence there).