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Where will the ice edge be at jaxa minimum extent

magenta line
red line
green line
black line (on CPOM)
green sparrowhawk
brown line
yellow line
.
.
.
.
don't know
don't want to know

Voting closes: April 30, 2019, 11:08:18 PM

Author Topic: Ice edge at minimum poll  (Read 1043 times)

uniquorn

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Ice edge at minimum poll
« on: April 08, 2019, 11:08:18 PM »
There may be a gloomy melting season ahead. Here is a lighthearted competition to take our minds off the seriousness of it all.
Two brave posters have already made predictions for the shape of the ice edge at minimum in september. The winner of this poll has the dubious honour of becoming option1 in the july poll. Hopefully you will be able to change your vote. If not, I'll wait till the 20th when entries close and ask neven to fix it.

Three simple steps to submit an entry:
download the top map named option1
add your own prediction using a new colour.
attach your prediction to a post on this thread giving the colour a name.
New entries will then be added to the options

In the event that there are 2 very similar entries the earliest will be added to the options.
Maximum number of dimensions = 24. That's probably about 11 entries.
Closing date for entries is 20th april, voting closes on 30th.

Hat tip to Niall and bbr for the idea
« Last Edit: April 09, 2019, 08:15:06 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2019, 11:32:16 PM »
amsr2-uhh jaxa minimum dates, 2012-2018 for comparison.
thanks Oren
« Last Edit: April 09, 2019, 03:37:56 PM by uniquorn »

Sterks

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2019, 11:34:13 PM »
A third option in between would be my vote, but in absence, somthing close to the red is more probable (according to some scientists, has to happen one of these years)

uniquorn

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2019, 11:57:43 PM »
Only fair that I put myself on the line :)
green
« Last Edit: April 09, 2019, 12:11:47 AM by uniquorn »

Niall Dollard

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2019, 12:06:01 AM »
Thanks Uniquorn.

I think Edvard Munch had a role in shaping mine !

 

uniquorn

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2019, 12:15:44 AM »
Thanks Uniquorn.
I think Edvard Munch had a role in shaping mine !
yours is the most optimistic as well

miki

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2019, 12:36:33 AM »
Green

magnamentis

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2019, 03:32:38 AM »
magenta
http://magnamentis.com
Knowledge, Understanding & Insight Are Among The Best Sources For Personal Freedom & Vitality !

jdallen

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2019, 06:06:29 AM »
Here's my estimation, derived from the CPOM (Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling - site: http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html?big_thickness_image=1&thk_period=28&season=Spring&year=2018)

I'm figuring most ice currently 2M or less is "en prise"

I see an outcome between 2012 and 2016.  Effectively, somewhere between red and green, though I chose Red.

This space for Rent.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2019, 06:15:24 AM »
My pessimism in a picture.

Green (sparrowhawk) line.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2019, 12:38:06 PM by b_lumenkraft »

Niall Dollard

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #10 on: April 09, 2019, 08:53:42 AM »
My pessimism in a picture.


Sparrowhawk, with the pole hole the eye !

RikW

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #11 on: April 09, 2019, 09:08:27 AM »
I go for the most pessimistic one ;)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #12 on: April 09, 2019, 09:13:53 AM »
Sparrowhawk, with the pole hole the eye!

Hahaha, pareidolia as it's best! Good catch. :)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #13 on: April 09, 2019, 09:15:52 AM »
I go for the most pessimistic one ;)

That would be a BOE, no? Looks less than 1m km^2

RikW

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #14 on: April 09, 2019, 09:52:19 AM »
I don't think 1M km2 can really be called blue-ocean; I think my suggestion (which I don't expect and don't hope to happen) is around 0.3M-0.5M km2

Having 2-3x that area is a lot more ice and I don't think you can really call that blue ocean.
I think the red line is around 1M km2, and having an ice sheet from the canadian island to the pole, doesn't feel very no-ice-sheet to me

johnm33

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2019, 10:17:39 AM »
I was thinking somewhere between these two but I'll go with green.


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #16 on: April 09, 2019, 11:03:02 AM »
... having an ice sheet from the canadian island to the pole, doesn't feel very no-ice-sheet to me

But as i understand it, the buffer function of Arctic sea ice would widely disappear at such a low level. And isn't it this how a BOE event is defined?


oren

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #17 on: April 09, 2019, 11:03:53 AM »
amsr2-uhh sep19, 2012-2018 for comparison
Love the animation, but 2016 was worse at min which luckily came early that year (Sept 9th IIRC)

uniquorn

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #18 on: April 09, 2019, 12:21:07 PM »
I was thinking somewhere between these two but I'll go with green.
Would you like me to merge them for you? They are like a combination of 2 5 and 6.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2019, 12:52:08 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #19 on: April 09, 2019, 12:54:08 PM »
amsr2-uhh sep19, 2012-2018 for comparison
Love the animation, but 2016 was worse at min which luckily came early that year (Sept 9th IIRC)
If you can point me to a list of minimum dates I'll adjust it. Maybe Niall chose 19th as an average.

oren

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #20 on: April 09, 2019, 01:59:23 PM »
If you can point me to a list of minimum dates I'll adjust it. Maybe Niall chose 19th as an average.
Year   JAXA Extent Min   Sept Date
2010     4,622,092     17
2011     4,269,199     10
2012     3,177,455     16
2013     4,809,288     12
2014     4,884,120     17
2015     4,257,003     14
2016     4,017,264     7
2017     4,472,225     9
2018     4,457,252     21

Though maybe UH AMSR2 minimum dates are slightly different.

johnm33

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #21 on: April 09, 2019, 03:09:00 PM »
"merge them for you?" thanks but I'll stick with the sparrowhawk.

oren

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #22 on: April 09, 2019, 04:10:24 PM »
Year   Min UH Extent   Sept Date
2012     3.008608     12
2013     4.621491     09
2014     4.511557     14
2015     3.921226     08
2016     3.642078     07
2017     4.248834     11
2018     4.194638     17
« Last Edit: April 09, 2019, 08:17:30 PM by oren »

oren

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #23 on: April 09, 2019, 04:14:48 PM »
Year   Min UH Area   Sept Date
2012     2.667681     07
2013     4.250043     09
2014     4.095261     14
2015     3.485994     08
2016     2.986029     08
2017     3.650520     01
2018     3.736907     08

This is for anyone who thinks 2012 was a statistical fluke. 2016 was really low on area.

Note: Hopefully i didn't bungle the calculations. All based on Wipneus' data.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2019, 08:17:44 PM by oren »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #24 on: April 09, 2019, 07:53:15 PM »
My suggested map for the 2019 minimum looks something like 2016's minimum.  Perhaps its defining nature is multiple regions of ice separated by ice-free water, and an ice-free North-pole.
Colour Color = yellow.

Edit:  I've added back my 'original' representation of the "yellow line" which was done on the 2016 frame of Uniquorn's April 8 post.  This is not a 'substitute' for the official entry, it is just to show its genesis.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2019, 04:09:43 PM by Tor Bejnar »
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Stephan

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #25 on: April 09, 2019, 09:54:41 PM »
I went for the green line, probably a little more than that into direction ESS. Who knows?

oren

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #26 on: April 09, 2019, 10:51:36 PM »
amsr2-uhh jaxa minimum dates, 2012-2018 for comparison.
thanks Oren
Thanks for the updated animation uniquorn. As I remembered, 2016 was terrible in early Sept, especially in the region around the pole where the low concentration was unprecedented. Min extent is not the only measure of a melting season.

uniquorn

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #27 on: April 09, 2019, 11:33:07 PM »
2016 was terrible in early Sept, especially in the region around the pole where the low concentration was unprecedented.
Good idea. For the june poll I'll overlay slices of emmenthal ;)
Although 24 dimensions is the limit, everyone has stuck with two so far despite the general consensus being that three may be better. That said, one entry has strayed into disparate areas and another propounded multiple futures.

Archimid

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #28 on: April 10, 2019, 12:43:50 AM »
I like the concept of the yellow line. A minimum with ice islands surrounded by open ocean seem like a likely occurrence very soon.  This year? I don't know. In some ways the conditions seem better than 2016, so it will have to be a very strong melting season.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sterks

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #29 on: April 10, 2019, 12:13:08 PM »
2016 was a really warm year right? not as flashy as 2007 mega dipole or 2012 mega Greenland ridge but a silent cloudier heat, not as apparent in Summer (which was bad anyway) , but Fall and Winter 2016 were a real mess!!

This year it probably end up much warmer than the rebounding 2017 and 2018.
RIP all that scattered thick ice over Beaufort and Chukchi if the Pacific heat keeps on

Pmt111500

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Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« Reply #30 on: April 10, 2019, 06:33:37 PM »
Meh, still waiting for a near BOE. I've been surprised how well the Arctic is constantly clouded during high summer heat of the sun and how well the protective sticky layer of fresher water redevelops under even thinner ice. My guess near BOE won't happen this year either. Following the early melts in Laptev/East Siberian, the rest should follow according to my current thinking. Won't vote this early.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.