Ice edge at minimum poll

[uniquorn]

There may be a gloomy melting season ahead. Here is a lighthearted competition to take our minds off the seriousness of it all.
Two brave posters have already made predictions for the shape of the ice edge at minimum in september. The winner of this poll has the dubious honour of becoming option1 in the july poll. Hopefully you will be able to change your vote. If not, I'll wait till the 20th when entries close and ask neven to fix it.

Three simple steps to submit an entry:
download the top map named option1
add your own prediction using a new colour.
attach your prediction to a post on this thread giving the colour a name.
New entries will then be added to the options

In the event that there are 2 very similar entries the earliest will be added to the options.
Maximum number of dimensions = 24. That's probably about 11 entries.
Closing date for entries is 20th april, voting closes on 30th.

Hat tip to Niall and bbr for the idea

[uniquorn]

amsr2-uhh jaxa minimum dates, 2012-2018 for comparison.
thanks Oren

[Sterks]

A third option in between would be my vote, but in absence, somthing close to the red is more probable (according to some scientists, has to happen one of these years)

[uniquorn]

Only fair that I put myself on the line
green

[Niall Dollard]

Thanks Uniquorn.

I think Edvard Munch had a role in shaping mine !

 

[uniquorn]

Thanks Uniquorn.
I think Edvard Munch had a role in shaping mine !

yours is the most optimistic as well

[miki]

Green

[magnamentis]

magenta

[jdallen]

Here's my estimation, derived from the CPOM (Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling - site: http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html?big_thickness_image=1&thk_period=28&season=Spring&year=2018)

I'm figuring most ice currently 2M or less is "en prise"

I see an outcome between 2012 and 2016.  Effectively, somewhere between red and green, though I chose Red.

[b_lumenkraft]

My pessimism in a picture.

Green (sparrowhawk) line.

[Niall Dollard]

My pessimism in a picture.

Sparrowhawk, with the pole hole the eye !

[RikW]

I go for the most pessimistic one

[b_lumenkraft]

Sparrowhawk, with the pole hole the eye!

Hahaha, pareidolia as it's best! Good catch.

[b_lumenkraft]

I go for the most pessimistic one

That would be a BOE, no? Looks less than 1m km^2

[RikW]

I don't think 1M km2 can really be called blue-ocean; I think my suggestion (which I don't expect and don't hope to happen) is around 0.3M-0.5M km2

Having 2-3x that area is a lot more ice and I don't think you can really call that blue ocean.
I think the red line is around 1M km2, and having an ice sheet from the canadian island to the pole, doesn't feel very no-ice-sheet to me

[johnm33]

I was thinking somewhere between these two but I'll go with green.

[b_lumenkraft]

... having an ice sheet from the canadian island to the pole, doesn't feel very no-ice-sheet to me

But as i understand it, the buffer function of Arctic sea ice would widely disappear at such a low level. And isn't it this how a BOE event is defined?

[oren]

amsr2-uhh sep19, 2012-2018 for comparison

Love the animation, but 2016 was worse at min which luckily came early that year (Sept 9th IIRC)

[uniquorn]

I was thinking somewhere between these two but I'll go with green.

Would you like me to merge them for you? They are like a combination of 2 5 and 6.

[uniquorn]

amsr2-uhh sep19, 2012-2018 for comparison

Love the animation, but 2016 was worse at min which luckily came early that year (Sept 9th IIRC)

If you can point me to a list of minimum dates I'll adjust it. Maybe Niall chose 19th as an average.

[oren]

If you can point me to a list of minimum dates I'll adjust it. Maybe Niall chose 19th as an average.

Year   JAXA Extent Min   Sept Date
2010     4,622,092     17
2011     4,269,199     10
2012     3,177,455     16
2013     4,809,288     12
2014     4,884,120     17
2015     4,257,003     14
2016     4,017,264     7
2017     4,472,225     9
2018     4,457,252     21

Though maybe UH AMSR2 minimum dates are slightly different.

[johnm33]

"merge them for you?" thanks but I'll stick with the sparrowhawk.

[oren]

Year   Min UH Extent   Sept Date
2012     3.008608     12
2013     4.621491     09
2014     4.511557     14
2015     3.921226     08
2016     3.642078     07
2017     4.248834     11
2018     4.194638     17

[oren]

Year   Min UH Area   Sept Date
2012     2.667681     07
2013     4.250043     09
2014     4.095261     14
2015     3.485994     08
2016     2.986029     08
2017     3.650520     01
2018     3.736907     08

This is for anyone who thinks 2012 was a statistical fluke. 2016 was really low on area.

Note: Hopefully i didn't bungle the calculations. All based on Wipneus' data.

[Tor Bejnar]

My suggested map for the 2019 minimum looks something like 2016's minimum.  Perhaps its defining nature is multiple regions of ice separated by ice-free water, and an ice-free North-pole.
Colour Color = yellow.

Edit:  I've added back my 'original' representation of the "yellow line" which was done on the 2016 frame of Uniquorn's April 8 post.  This is not a 'substitute' for the official entry, it is just to show its genesis.

[Stephan]

I went for the green line, probably a little more than that into direction ESS. Who knows?

[oren]

amsr2-uhh jaxa minimum dates, 2012-2018 for comparison.
thanks Oren

Thanks for the updated animation uniquorn. As I remembered, 2016 was terrible in early Sept, especially in the region around the pole where the low concentration was unprecedented. Min extent is not the only measure of a melting season.

[uniquorn]

2016 was terrible in early Sept, especially in the region around the pole where the low concentration was unprecedented.

Good idea. For the june poll I'll overlay slices of emmenthal
Although 24 dimensions is the limit, everyone has stuck with two so far despite the general consensus being that three may be better. That said, one entry has strayed into disparate areas and another propounded multiple futures.

[Archimid]

I like the concept of the yellow line. A minimum with ice islands surrounded by open ocean seem like a likely occurrence very soon.  This year? I don't know. In some ways the conditions seem better than 2016, so it will have to be a very strong melting season.

[Sterks]

2016 was a really warm year right? not as flashy as 2007 mega dipole or 2012 mega Greenland ridge but a silent cloudier heat, not as apparent in Summer (which was bad anyway) , but Fall and Winter 2016 were a real mess!!

This year it probably end up much warmer than the rebounding 2017 and 2018.
RIP all that scattered thick ice over Beaufort and Chukchi if the Pacific heat keeps on

[Pmt111500]

Meh, still waiting for a near BOE. I've been surprised how well the Arctic is constantly clouded during high summer heat of the sun and how well the protective sticky layer of fresher water redevelops under even thinner ice. My guess near BOE won't happen this year either. Following the early melts in Laptev/East Siberian, the rest should follow according to my current thinking. Won't vote this early.

[Eli81]

amsr2-uhh jaxa minimum dates, 2012-2018 for comparison.
thanks Oren

2016 really sticks out to me in that animation for some reason. I know the numbers didn't tell it, but it looks even more dramatic than 2012 to my untrained eye.

[oren]

2016 really sticks out to me in that animation for some reason. I know the numbers didn't tell it, but it looks even more dramatic than 2012 to my untrained eye.

At least one of the numbers did tell it. 2016 managed to equal 2012 in sea ice area in the CAB (as measured by Uni Hamburg based on AMSR2 with 3.125 km resolution) - a very important metric IMHO when considering the state of the ice in September. However, the melting season was cut off much earlier than 2012.

[jdallen]

At least one of the numbers did tell it. 2016 managed to equal 2012 in sea ice area in the CAB (as measured by Uni Hamburg based on AMSR2 with 3.125 km resolution) - a very important metric IMHO when considering the state of the ice in September. However, the melting season was cut off much earlier than 2012.

The Arctic dodged a bullet in 2016.

[bbr2314]

At least one of the numbers did tell it. 2016 managed to equal 2012 in sea ice area in the CAB (as measured by Uni Hamburg based on AMSR2 with 3.125 km resolution) - a very important metric IMHO when considering the state of the ice in September. However, the melting season was cut off much earlier than 2012.

The Arctic dodged a bullet in 2016.

4/16-25 2019 minus 2016. I don't think we dodge the bullet this year. The cold this month has been focusing over the Kara which is going to melt out anyways and is abysmally thin. Not only will it melt out fully, it will probably melt out very early. I think this results in none of the shorefast Siberian ice surviving the season, as ESS / Chukchi are similarly thin, but have already begun / will imminently begin, to melt (at least, in fits).

[uniquorn]

Thank you for all the entries. Voting closes shortly.
Siege may be more appropriate than a bullet.

[uniquorn]

bbr's entry goes on to the next poll in June.

[uniquorn]

Adding these for future reference.

[b_lumenkraft]

I wonder if Tealight voted here too!

[ArcticMelt2]

Voted for the black line. The probability that this year will be catastrophic continues to grow:

[uniquorn]

Bumping this thread because I keep needing the data

[Tor Bejnar]

... but who won that poll?

[uniquorn]

bbr

[Tor Bejnar]

I though the answer was going to be something like "red" or "green"!  Bbr appears to have one post in this thread.  Some things I'll never understand.