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Author Topic: 2019 CO2 emissions  (Read 528 times)

Tom_Mazanec

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2019 CO2 emissions
« on: April 11, 2019, 04:40:14 PM »
As long ago as early December, 2018 it was reported that 2018 had hit an all-time record for CO2 emissions.
Do we have some early indications five months later how 2019 is trending?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2019, 04:59:24 PM »
Perhaps look in "2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels"?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2019, 05:12:17 PM »
I thought emissions is how much H. sapiens actually put into the atmosphere through burning gas, oil, coal, wood, etc. while the Mauna Loa levels reflect the exhalation of animals, fossil fuel burning, sequestering in plants, and other carbon cycles.
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rboyd

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Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2019, 06:05:14 PM »
Perhaps look in "2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels"?

Atmospheric levels represent the actions of all sources (natural and anthropogenic) and sinks, and there is a significant amount of natural variation (e.g. La Nina/El Nino). There is also the possibility of feedbacks increasing natural emissions and reducing sinks. So probably not a good link between the two, especially in the short-term.

Coal Usage
Maybe the best proxy is coal usage in China and India, as the increase in coal usage accounted for 70% of the rise in emissions in 2017 and 2018. Forecasts are for 4% growth in India coal usage ongoing and it looks like China is quietly building new coal-fired power stations, so they may not peak for quite a while. Coal consumption statistics are usually quite delayed in reporting though. I ignore any reduction due to increased natural gas usage, as the significantly underreported fugitive methane leaks make it as bad as coal (yes, that means that emissions grew by more than reported in 2018).

Wind and Solar Electricity Generation
Another could be the forecast for the increase in wind and solar electricity generation (not capacity addition which is very misleading due to differing capacity factors) versus the forecast increase in overall electricity generation (growing at about 2.5% per year). If the ratio is greater than 1 (currently less than 0.5) electricity generation is decarbonizing. I ignore hydroelectricity (growth limited and net up-front emissions due to construction and the flooding of vegetation) and the highly questionable bio-fuels (e.g. wood pellets may be just as bad as coal and therefore UK emissions probably did not fall by as much as claimed).

In 2017 humanity utilized approximately 22,000 Terawatt hours of electricity, wind provided 5% of that, and solar 2% of that. Their combined share grew by 1%, which was much less than the 2.6% growth in overall generation. The growth rate would need to treble to start decarbonizing. You can get the data for look-back IRENA (International Renewable Energy Association) and look-forward data from GWEC (Global Wind Energy Council) and Solar Power Europe. Their forecasts for 2019 (which are usually pretty good) point to slowing growth rates in wind and solar, so not decarbonization. Same to 2022.

Internal Combustion Engine Car Fleet
As long as this is growing (as it is rapidly in China and probably soon India, and slowly in the US and Europe) emissions will tend to increase, offset a little by more efficient engines (offset a lot by increases in the size of cars). In 2019 car sales may fall somewhat, but the overall ICE car fleet will continue to grow. Until EV's are a significant share of sales in the USA and Europe this increase will continue. Monthly sales numbers, and EV share, are published monthly. Still too low to reduce the ICE fleet in the USA and EU.

Sorry that its not that simple to do. I track these things in detail because it is necessary for my PhD, it can be quite a pain tracking down accurate (and not misrepresented) data. My take is that, short of a recession, emissions will increase between now and 2022.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/secret-coal-plants-reveal-chinas-strategy-of-the-green-mirage_2860707.html

https://yearbook.enerdata.net/electricity/electricity-domestic-consumption-data.html

https://yearbook.enerdata.net/renewables/wind-solar-share-electricity-production.html

https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Mar/Capacity-Statistics-2019

https://gwec.net/global-wind-report-2018/

http://www.solarpowereurope.org/global-market-outlook-2018-2022/
« Last Edit: April 11, 2019, 06:13:40 PM by rboyd »

Stephan

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Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2019, 08:26:15 PM »
Thank you for sharing your information sources and their relative weight and importance.
Please keep us updated if newer and more precise information is available and finally good luck with your PhD thesis :-)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2019, 08:39:20 PM »
I track these things in detail because it is necessary for my PhD,

Good luck with that! :)

If it helps you, there are very accurate emission stats for Germany from Frauenhofer.

All coal plants >> https://www.energy-charts.de/emissions_de.htm?source=lignite&view=absolute&emission=co2&year=all

Percentage renewables >> https://www.energy-charts.de/ren_share_de.htm

Solar and wind >> https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_de.htm?source=solar-wind&period=weekly&year=2019

Feel free to ask me for translation if necessary.

rboyd

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Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2019, 06:37:47 AM »
Thankyou, actually google translate tends to do a very good job.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2019, 07:26:47 AM »
Thankyou, actually google translate tends to do a very good job.

You are welcome R.

So cool Google translates even this site. Thumbs up!  :)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2019, 09:22:14 PM »
Well, I don't know if Google Translate does a very good job...I usually get just pretty good (although I admit it is slowly improving).
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rboyd

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Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2019, 11:31:12 PM »
Increase in lake emissions equivalent to 13% of fossil fuel related emissions due to "moderate levels of eutrophication" due to increased temperatures

We are rapidly getting to the point where cuts in anthropogenic emissions could be matched by increased sources and reduced sinks.The UNIPCC takes absolutely no account of this.

Quote
Our study shows that GHG emissions from lakes and impoundments are equivalent to ∼ 20% of global fossil fuel CO2 emission (9.3 Pg C‐CO2 yr−1; Le Quéré et al. 2016) and that emissions will rise even further with the continued eutrophication of Earth's lentic ecosystems.

[quote This analysis suggests that these moderate levels of enhanced eutrophication could increase the atmospheric effect of GHGs emitted from lakes and impoundments by 5%, 26%, or 42%, respectively (Supporting Information Table S7). This increased emission would be equivalent to around 1 Pg CO2eq yr−1 or about 13% of the effect of the current global emission of CO2 by the combustion of fossil fuels, and about equal to the excess CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from global land use change (Ciais et al. 2013).[/quote]

https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/lol2.10073