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Paddy

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Brexit...
« on: April 12, 2019, 07:14:38 PM »
So, as a thoroughly pro-Remain Brit, I'd be curious to know the general forum views. Not that I expect that our horrible tangled political mess will affect climate much (the economic harm to the UK if and when Brexit goes ahead and general knock to trade, travel and to life expectancy might even reduce our emissions slightly, although this may be balanced out by the emissions boost caused by deregulation if the Moggians get their way).  I'm generally just curious.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2019, 07:24:53 PM »
Brexit will not happen.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2019, 07:42:18 PM »
I wrote somewhere that the same Russians that "voted" for Trump "voted" for Brexit. 
Who says you shouldn't 'vote by proxy'?  I pay only a little attention to what is befalling Great Britain, and I do not have foresight.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

crandles

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2019, 07:54:34 PM »
So, as a thoroughly pro-Remain Brit

Sensible chap :)

How much of a shambles is needed before it is decided that current views of current electorate should be considered?

While I voted remain and remain firmly pro remain, I don't really have any good argument why my position should be treated any more favourably than someone else's views from the other side. Also I don't hear of many people changing views from leave to remain. However, I think there must be lots who abstained who would now vote remain to end this shambles as soon as possible and people who voted leave that might think it is such a shambles that they would abstain.

I consider not consulting people again something like 3.5 years later when there is much more info on how it is going to be more serious abuse of democracy than the problem of failing to honour result of first referendum.

etienne

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2019, 08:29:55 PM »
Sometimes I wonder if a no deal or a remain wouldn't be better than a never ending Brexit.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2019, 09:00:31 PM »
So let's break down the options:

1) No deal Brexit:
Britain exits Europe with no strings attached. They fall back to WTO rules in the trade with other countries. You don't want that. You pay tariffs, there is a huge amount of administration involved, some goods can't be imported/exported at all.
London is (was) money capital. All sorts of financial institutions are located here. When there is no free flow of goods (and people), no one wants to do their banking in Britain anymore. The last big business on the island will leave. And they already started to do so.
Closed borders will probably mean there are not enough harvesting hands in the fall when they are needed.
I could go on, the list of negative implications is endless.

2) A Brexit with a deal with the EU:
Obey the EU rules, but have no say at all anymore. This can't be in the interest of either side.

3) A third referendum:
A Brexit vote today would look differently because many lies the brexiteers spread are sufficiently debunked by now. The majority would vote to remain (as they did in the first vote btw).

4) Don't decide on anything and just stall the process:
That's what May has chosen to do. But at some point, you need to decide. And if you don't decide on option 3 now, there is no time to set up a vote later.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2019, 09:27:26 PM »
So let's break down the options:
 ...
3) A third referendum:
A Brexit vote today would look differently because many lies the brexiteers spread are sufficiently debunked by now. The majority would vote to remain (as they did in the first vote btw).


Nice summation, and I'd agree with your assertions...except, the majority voted to remain?  I thought that was only true in NI and Scotland (+Gibralter).

My own sense is that the only reasonable option is a new referendum.  Three choices:  Leave+no deal, Leave+May deal, Remain.  So much has evolved since the first vote, it only makes sense to poll the electorate again.

I would think May could now lose another vote of no confidence.  I think if Labor would run on a platform of a re-vote, that might just bring them to power.

Interminable delay is the worst of all possible options, I agree.

Just a perspective of another Yankee, as if the Brits needed another one.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2019, 09:45:49 PM »
Steve,

the first vote took place in 1975

And the Brits were pretty pro Europe at the time:
Quote
...the outcome of the vote was 67.2% in favour of staying in...
Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_European_Union–United_Kingdom_relations#Referendum_of_1975

etienne

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2019, 10:29:54 PM »
So let's break down the options:

1) No deal Brexit:
Britain exits Europe with no strings attached. They fall back to WTO rules in the trade with other countries. You don't want that. You pay tariffs, there is a huge amount of administration involved, some goods can't be imported/exported at all.
London is (was) money capital. All sorts of financial institutions are located here. When there is no free flow of goods (and people), no one wants to do their banking in Britain anymore. The last big business on the island will leave. And they already started to do so.
Closed borders will probably mean there are not enough harvesting hands in the fall when they are needed.
I could go on, the list of negative implications is endless.

I think you overestimate the impact of a no deal. UK can keep it's side open (people and goods can enter as much as UK wants them), it's only the EU side that would be restrained, but only for goods and for people, not for finance.
UK makes many luxury goods, and here a few % more for the paper work won't make a big difference. What would be very hard is to switch the wroking process, but I can't imagine that the curent situation is ok for business.
For normal products, it would be more difficult to compete, but being out of the EU provides many subcontracting possibilities in low wages third countries. Here again, it is the change of process that is a major problem.
The ones that might really suffer are people integrated in a EU production configuration because it would require some kind of deal to be able to import from the EU, transform and export again to the EU a piece of a more complex system.

The other major problem is Ireland. Maybe it would be reunited faster than expected if a no deal would happen.

I really believe that the UK should stay in the EU, and I am scared that a no deal would transform the UK in some kind of tax free country, like some small Islands already are, but I believe that if Mrs May acts that way, it must be because there should be a majority for the leave.

magnamentis

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2019, 10:39:29 PM »
a) i'm against brexit to happen

b) i say it won't happen

c) there should be a second referendum and the fact they don't wanna hold it alone is
.   kind of a sign what the outcome would be = remain

d) the first referendum was:
.   I.  underestimated by many and they didn't vote pro remain while the leavers had a more
.   dedicated stance.

.   II. the outcome was due to a bunch of lies, misleading statements and promises as well
.       as due to fear-mongering.

in a few thousand years planet earth will be a union, it's the only way to manage the tasks at hand, nationalism means competition between nations that leads to things being done against better knowledge to either win or not lose out against the more ruthless for which trumpistan is a
great example.
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Paddy

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2019, 11:07:55 PM »
So let's break down the options:

1) No deal Brexit:
Britain exits Europe with no strings attached. They fall back to WTO rules in the trade with other countries. You don't want that. You pay tariffs, there is a huge amount of administration involved, some goods can't be imported/exported at all.
London is (was) money capital. All sorts of financial institutions are located here. When there is no free flow of goods (and people), no one wants to do their banking in Britain anymore. The last big business on the island will leave. And they already started to do so.
Closed borders will probably mean there are not enough harvesting hands in the fall when they are needed.
I could go on, the list of negative implications is endless.

You're missing the problem that "No Deal" is generally put forward by those not wanting to pay any more funds to the EU. But trying to go down that path would likely land the UK in a very torrid legal battle with the allies it had just cut ties with, because it would mean reneging on its commitments.

be cause

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2019, 01:19:31 AM »
Living less than 1 mile from the Ireland / UK border ( in Northern Ireland ), i certainly pray that Brexit does not happen .. b c
be the cause of only good
and love all beings as you should
and the 'God' of all Creation
will .. through you .. transform all nations :)

Paddy

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2019, 07:28:28 AM »
Registered and set to vote Green in the European elections. Kind of expecting a poor showing for both Tories and Labour as they haemorrhage votes to parties on each side of this issue.

BeeKnees

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #13 on: April 13, 2019, 08:41:03 AM »
The referendum was completely flawed. The question too simple and with no one actually responsible for spelling out or delivering the no vote.   
This has given the PM the mandate of a dictator, claiming she is delivering 'the will of the people' without ever checking her view is what the people want.  It's led her to draw red lines and take an extreme position that's fed back into the publc and exacerbated the divisions.

We are finally seeing some common sense imposed by parliament, hopefully the shift will reach a point where they accept they ballsed.up and revoke or it goes back to the people with the option to cancel.
Almost no one has changed their mind in the uk, but those becoming eligible to vote are 80% remain, while those who are no longer with us were strongly leave so there is a good chance we will get a different result.

Personally, when this is all over I hope we take a good look at our political system and reform it.

RealityCheck

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2019, 09:13:10 AM »
Brexit will do (and already is doing) damage to UK economy. Ditto to the Irish economy. It will have real negative impact on the lives of ordinary people and small businesses in both these countries, whatever about the wider EU. It was constructed on populist foundations and built with untruths, slogans and emotive appeals to a historic idea of imperial UK. It plays into the hands of powers that want to weaken the EU ie the current US and Russian administrations. Dodgy funding sources for the Leave campaign have been flagged. No Deal would amplify all negative effects. By all rational measures, it is a bad idea. But I think it will happen anyway. 'Sic transit gloria mundi.' Oh well...
Sic transit gloria mundi

johnm33

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2019, 09:19:51 AM »
I didn't vote, but the actual vote pretty fairly represented my position, more leave than remain.

I voted for joining the common market, no one mentioned surrendering our democracy/sovereignty to a pro German/French bureaucracy in thrall to it's own central bank and that it would eventually build it's own army to crush internal dissent. When I voted to join there was never any actual infromation in any newspaper just endless opinion peices about how their interpretation of the agreements they read were unequivocally positive for us, so no change as far as information lite argument goes for the recent referendum.
 Watching the government surrender every bargaining chip in the first hour of 'negotiations' was quite instructive and the together with the anti-democratic behaviour of the 'remain' camp has put me firmly on the side of no deal brexit and damn the consequences. Hence much to my surprise I find myself in agreement with SteveMDFP as far as the way forward goes.
 The Slog more or less represents my wider view. 

pikaia

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2019, 10:03:08 AM »
When the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991 the members were free to simply walk away and form their own independent countries, with their own currencies, etc., which they did with little apparent difficulty. However, the members of the EU are tied together with a Gordian knot which nobody can figure out how to untie, which suggests that it was badly designed in the first place. Perhaps it would have been better if countries joined up for a set term, eg 10 years, after which they could either leave or renew their membership?

So, it seems to me that the EU is far too complicated and ambitious, few people actually understand it, and the politicians have screwed it up. If politicians learned to follow the KISS principle then perhaps life would be simpler for everyone and they would not find themselves in this purely artificial mess that they have created for themselves.

The European country with the strongest economy is Switzerland, which has never been in the EU, while Italy, one of the founder members has a weak economy with 10.5% unemployment (and Spain has 14.1%, Greece 18.5%), so it is not obvious to me that there is much to be gained from EU membership.

One good thing about Brexit and the EU is that it led to the humiliating downfall of David Cameron and Margaret Thatcher, and soon Theresa May.

RealityCheck

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2019, 10:21:22 AM »
'...so it is not obvious to me that there is much to be gained from EU membership.'

I am reminded of the scene from 'Life of Brian': 'What have the Romans ever done for us?' 'Brought peace?' 'Aaah, peace! Shut up!'
Sic transit gloria mundi

Lurk

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2019, 10:35:03 AM »
.... and with no one actually responsible for spelling out or delivering the no vote.   

Wasn't that the then Prime Minister David Cameron who "led" the case for Remain? Can't get a more high profile person in that job. Others played a supporting role - aka Corbyn and most Labour MPs (pretty weak though) while the Conservative outspoken highly funded "insurgency" was run by the man with the hair and you know who (Farage) and weaponised by the "identity/racist politics" of the Murdoch press etc. (... that's what saw from a distance)

graphic MPs 160 Leave  ..... 486 Remain

OK, so imagine you're Teresa May and you truly believe that Remain is the best option despite marginally missing the popular Vote ..... if you wanted to scuttle the whole thing ... and yet wish to maintain the appearance of respecting the Vote to Leave ... what might you do?

Would you maybe utilise those ~486 Remain MPs where ever possible to create "problems"? Would you maybe act in ways that might delay the process - such as putting up unsupportable options for a Vote? Would you perhaps run some background strategies at arms length designed to make the whole thing unmanageable ..... to a point it might lead to another Referendum ..... ?
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 05:54:51 PM by Lurk »
“We have time now, ten years, perhaps twenty years, to do something about it. The longer we leave it the more difficult it is going to be and if we leave it too long… the natural system will collapse.”
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2019, 10:35:38 AM »
What has the ECHR ever done for us??
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 10:40:49 AM by b_lumenkraft »

Pmt111500

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2019, 10:50:15 AM »
How many nukes will England give to Scotland when they go independent? After this extension I'm not going to follow this until september. It's clear nothing will change and the slow emigration of UK companies and the assets in financial district will continue.

(Late addendum, the cat episode was funny, my neighbor's cat who visits regularly does just that, and if I ever get a cat, might call him/her Brexit.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 11:26:18 AM by Pmt111500 »
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pikaia

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2019, 10:55:55 AM »
Well, well, wellI I didn't realise that the ECHR was responsible for the abolition of slavery! What would we have done without it!

BeeKnees

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2019, 12:04:46 PM »
.... and with no one actually responsible for spelling out or delivering the no vote.   

Wasn't that the then Prime Minister David Cameron who "led" the case for Remain? Can't get a more high profile person in that job.
As the person leading the remain campaign he clearly wasn't the person spelling out the plan should leave win.  As PM he did spell out the likely impacts depending on what choices were made but never put forward a leave plan that could be analysed and trusted as being what was being voted for.  Only one group did that and they were an unofficial leave campaign
http://www.eureferendum.com/Flexcit.aspx

That is why nearly three years later our politicians still can't agree what comes after the withdrawal agreement.

johnm33

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2019, 03:56:01 PM »
"So Corbyn" he's f---ed his sjw ideological metropolitan base are all remain[ish] whilst his 'tribal' traditional labour voters in the north are leavers, to get his program of privatisation through, should labour be elected, he needs to be out enough to not be constrained by EU rules, the mans not a natural two faced liar poor sod. It looks like moves are afoot to shift the blame for brexit failure onto him.
Given the long wait before 'article 50'[?] was invoked I suspect there was some serious collaberation between EU and UK bureaucracies on how to thwart the whole process and it seems to be following the sort of course any committee designed strategy does.
 The Slog and some of his regulars, and others, are trying to put together a number of independent Lab./Con. candidates to stand against sitting remainers in those constituences of either party which voted leave.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2019, 04:12:11 PM »
David Cameron Hums A Tune After Resigning


It's always good to see when people taking their job seriously.

Alexander555

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #25 on: April 13, 2019, 04:25:22 PM »
The people that are against the brexit, are the same people that are destroying this planet. They are the globalists. Moving people and goods from one side of the planet to the other side, because of a little price difference. That's why our sea's are full with ships, the sky full with airplains, all forest cut.....That's why almost every family is spread across the planet, so even a simple family visit takes thousands of miles of travelling these days.

etienne

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #26 on: April 13, 2019, 07:43:13 PM »
This is not true. The EU is not only about business, it is also about freedom and democraty. The aim is also to have peace on the continent (including UK of course).

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #27 on: April 13, 2019, 08:30:06 PM »

Alexander, i don't know how you could possibly come to this conclusion.

Quote
The people that are against the brexit, are the same people that are destroying this planet. They are the globalists.

1) Last time i checked both, isolationists and globalists, have caused CO2 emissions.
2) The isolationists want the Brexit, not the globalists.

Quote
Moving people  from one side of the planet to the other side

It's called freedom of movement and therefore freedom. How is that bad? I want this for everyone. (with huge CO2 tax for flights though)

Quote
and goods

Again, pretty sure people from any kind of the political spectrum enjoy bananas and pepper.

Quote
because of a little price difference. That's why our seas are full of ships, the sky full with aeroplanes, all forest cut.

This is due to a lag of a carbon tax, not a function of Britain being in or out the EU.

Also, what Etienne said!

magnamentis

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #28 on: April 13, 2019, 09:03:41 PM »
When the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991 the members were free to simply walk away and form their own independent countries, with their own currencies, etc., which they did with little apparent difficulty.

it's easy to walk away and start from scratch if there's nothing to lose. it's easy to leave a house crumbled to dust, it's easy to turn your back on land that does not feed you and so on.

it's obvious what i mean without going into further details, it's comparing apples with pears and then the brits were in the shit before they joined and will return (on their way) to it if they opt out.

this is neither personal nor disrespectful, one part is a fact and the second part a most probable outcome.

we should remember how that empire was built, buy conquering and robbing a major part of the world with cannons and guns and using "pirats" like francis drake, instrumentalizing him and others to do their part for the  wealth of the crown.

later that theft and murder loot was legalized through regular business that nowaday again mostly got and gets outlawed, like i.e. robbing commodities from the poor ex colonies at a ridiculous price tag and pollute the rest of the world with it.

this is nothing else than mafia methods partly justified through hypocrisy by the power of a queens and kings or in other words, ancient dictators that only were different because they mostly inherited their powers instead of going through a "coup d'état"
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BeeKnees

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #29 on: April 13, 2019, 09:24:36 PM »
Economists for brexit, the IEA and many of the 'experts' promoting brexit have made no bones about the views that manufacturing and agriculture in the uk should die as it's cheaper to import and sell services.

This is the true nature of brexit, to import from far and wide.  Regardless of the environmental cost and at the expense of others, whilst selling promises. 

Seriously, what do people think the purpose of stepping out of our closest market was for those with power and money?  It's certainly not for the benefit of the working class in the UK or the good of the planet.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #30 on: April 13, 2019, 09:36:23 PM »
For how i understand the mood in Europe, once the Brits are out, they are out for good.

GB had real perks as an EU member. They had more say on some topics and vetoed all around - ever-nagging. There is already damage done to both sides. The uncertainty for 2 years. And now they can't even figure out how to leave. All these pointless negotiations going nowhere.

Personally, i hear a lot of people saying they are happy when they are finally out. The EU doesn't need GB, it's the other way around.

Disclaimer: This doesn't necessarily reflect my personal view.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #31 on: April 13, 2019, 10:08:02 PM »
UK parliament very likely to consider new Brexit referendum: Hammond

Quote
The idea of a second Brexit referendum is very likely to be put before Britain’s parliament again although the government remains opposed to any new plebiscite, the British finance minister said on Friday.

Philip Hammond said he hoped parliament would break the Brexit impasse by passing a deal by the end of June, potentially ending the calls for a new referendum, and there was a “good chance” of a breakthrough in talks with the opposition Labour Party.

“I remain optimistic that over the next couple of months we will get a deal done,” he told reporters in Washington where he is attending meetings at the International Monetary Fund.

But a second referendum could not be ruled out.

“It’s a proposition that could and, on all the evidence, is very likely to be put to parliament at some stage,” Hammond said.

Prime Minister Theresa May has so far failed to get her own Conservative Party behind the Brexit divorce deal she agreed with other European Union leaders last year, forcing her to ask the bloc for a delay and to start talks with Labour about how to break the impasse in parliament.

Link >> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-hammond/uk-parliament-very-likely-to-consider-new-brexit-referendum-hammond-idUSKCN1RO1EF

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #32 on: April 14, 2019, 03:13:20 PM »
I voted remain ( and reform) and seeing Corbyn's reception at the socialist meet in Portugal last year there is plenty of support for such reforms?

A50 will be pulled whilst we sort out our mess and minds.

This may well mean a second ref but in the form of a G.E. first?

The indication that the policies of the successful Party(ies) will then guide us on which way to proceed with Brexit ( if at all?)

Brenda from Bristol will not be a happy bunny!
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #33 on: April 15, 2019, 06:24:10 PM »
Farage's New Brexit Party Explained

Watch Farage making a business model out of Brexit.


GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #34 on: Today at 03:51:19 AM »
Brexit will not happen.

I'll bet big money b_lumenkraft was sure that the referendum would fail...and that Hillary would win, etc.

Brexit will happen. There was a referendum and the result is not in dispute.

Others will follow, likely starting with Italy and Greece.


<snip, sorry, but I can't tolerate videos from a trolling Nigel Farage, as he's a sack full of shit and lies; N.>
« Last Edit: Today at 09:49:10 AM by Neven »
big time oops

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #35 on: Today at 10:37:20 AM »
There was a referendum and the result is not in dispute.

Which referendum are you referring to? The first, or the second one? Both were not in dispute. Both were just a snapshot.

BeeKnees

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #36 on: Today at 03:09:24 PM »
Brexit will happen. There was a referendum and the result is not in dispute.

It does not matter whether the 2016 referendum is\isnt in dispute, the simple point is it's mandate weakens over time.  Already the electorate has changed by more than 5% as people join\ drop off the register and the longer this continues the harder it becomes to claim to be delivering the will of the people. 

You can see it in the removal of hard brexit by politicians, the growing call for a second referendum, the polls moving away from leave ( Even though almost no one has changed their mind).  There is a growing sentiment that the nation has wasted enough time on trying to leave and needs to get on with day-to-day issues.

Brexit probably will happen in some form but I would no longer be prepared to make a decent bet on it.