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RealityCheck

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #200 on: November 02, 2019, 10:02:04 AM »
Indeed, bc.
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SATire

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #201 on: November 03, 2019, 02:04:13 PM »
Back in July I wrote....

[\quote author=RealityCheck link=topic=2643.msg209772#msg209772 date=1561972106]

In the words of Gerontocrat (and Monty Python): 'My theory that belongs to me' is that Europe will not agree to any further extension of the Brexit deadline; that new PM Johnson will be unable to get Parliament agreement on anything; a general election might well result, leading to more confusion; there will be no time to do anything meaningful after the dust settles; and an 'accidental' hard Brexit is a high likelihood - with everyone then blaming everyone else for the mess. Then Ireland gets caught in the cross-fire.

Once more, I hope I am wrong...but nothing points to that right now.

Here we are with October round the corner...and guess what? My hope of being wrong is dwindling. I have held back posting too much about Brexit, because it's all the same really. But it still all points to a hard Brexit as most likely.
...

So, here we are with Brexit postponed again. 2 cheers for that. I am very happy to have that chaos moved away to 2020, and that my pessimism about 31 Oct hard Brexit has been proved wrong by latest events. The election is happening now in the UK. Credit is due to clever MPs (there seem to be a few left) who painted the PM into a corner. In my dream outcome, the LibDems and SNP win a majority and find a way to cancel Brexit. Pigs might also fly...😁

Are you sure about your dream? After all that buzz and discussion there might be the option for UK just to cancel Brexit? After all those lies and words how could EU live together with UK and vice versa? I am not to sure if a future of UK inside EU would be a desirable outcome anymore.

Do not understand me wrong - it is common sense that Brexit is bad both for EU and UK. A lot of damages are already done because people prepared for Brexit and act accordingly. Also EU will continue to do everything to prevent "no-deal-Brexit" - as long as it does not destroy the EU (those famous 4 things...) and as longs as it is line with the needs of Ireland.

But if UK would now cancel Brexit what would happen? Would people in UK agree or get even more polarized and get even more open to manipulations? Could EU ever again trust UK or must they think that every day they would push the exit-article again or - even worse - would delay any fruitful work in Brussels?

Thus I think a no-deal Brexit is what should happen finally. Probably that would happen end of 2020 after the 3/4 year of "Brexit-deal" transition - or maybe another year later since there is now a tradition of delays in this process. This could be what most people expect and want after so many talks and all that time Brexit consumed in the news since years now. After all that prelude people on both sides of the channel need some serious actions one day.

So what actions could we see after we finally arrive at that famous "Brexit which is meaning Brexit"? Will we see a unification in Ireland (the GFA promises this option in case there is that boarder)? Will we see the separation of Scotland and its re-integration into EU (and would Spain allow that considering their separation issue in Barcelona?)? Will core-UK team-up with USA and evolve in some kind of "51st state"? Or will an unchained UK get back its empire again? What do you think?
But please: Any future action should be "entertaining" enough to justify all that noise about Brexit and the harm we had so far.

blumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #202 on: November 03, 2019, 03:42:05 PM »
Sorry for my ignorance, SATire, but are you British?
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SATire

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #203 on: November 03, 2019, 05:48:53 PM »
Sorry for my ignorance, SATire, but are you British?
lol - no. With my broken English I am from the remaining EU. English is my only foreign language and not to soon that will not be an official EU language anymore... Days of mourning.

Edit: Yes, some kind of English will probably stay as official EU language. Maybe not British English not Irish nor Malta's language but some kind of EU-english: "EUrisch" https://www.dw.com/de/nach-dem-brexit-eu-beh%C3%B6rdensprache-bleibt-weiter-englisch/a-50679475
« Last Edit: November 03, 2019, 06:11:27 PM by SATire »

pikaia

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #204 on: November 03, 2019, 05:53:13 PM »
I am sure that English will remain an official language of the EU. For one thing, Ireland will remain a member. For another, English is the de facto lingua franca of Europe and the rest of the world.

Pmt111500

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #205 on: November 03, 2019, 06:58:19 PM »
Yep, they should spell their words correctly, though. Jep, ðei ßud spel ðeö4 wöö4dz kcrrektli ðcu
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SATire

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #206 on: November 03, 2019, 10:13:02 PM »
Yep, they should spell their words correctly, though. Jep, ðei ßud spel ðeö4 wöö4dz kcrrektli ðcu
no - because: Brexit means Brexit ;-)

They may correct the Americans instead :-P

SATire

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #207 on: November 05, 2019, 03:41:39 PM »
I have another question e.g. for people from UK&NI (next to the one in post #201):

Is it the case that the election on Dec 12 is mainly about the way of Brexit and you have the following choices:
1: Brexit party to get "no deal Brexit"
2: Conservative to get the Johnson transition deal (and probably "no deal Brexit" end of 2020 or later for UK but backstop for NI?)
3: SNP or liberals for remain, thus cancelation of Brexit
4: labor for: don't know

Or is the election also about topics other than Brexit? 

Paddy

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #208 on: November 05, 2019, 03:58:53 PM »
Labour's Brexit position is a two step plan.
Step one: spend three months trying to negotiate a better deal
Step two: have a referendum on whatever deal they get vs remaining.
https://labour.org.uk/page/labour-brexit-plan/

I can see the rationale behind the second ref part being more democratic than simply cancelling Brexit, and I respect the principles shown.  At the same time, this whole plan is not without a couple of obvious pitfalls (the EU may well not be in the mood for yet more renegotiation, and a second ref could go either way).

Overall, I'm likely to vote for whichever party out of the Liberal Democrats and Labour looks more likely to unseat the Conservative incumbent in my local constituency.

In answer to your second question: there are many other divergent party positions on everything besides Brexit to consider. As well as such factors as the personality and trustworthiness of the different party leaders and local candidates. However, Brexit is the preeminent concern in the minds of most voters at this time.

blumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #209 on: November 05, 2019, 04:17:21 PM »
The EU is inherently the most leftist idea ever in Europe. Corbin should have been the one no-Brexit guy from the beginning. But this lefty is something entirely different. He knows it all better. Fuck him, seriously!
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #210 on: November 05, 2019, 04:24:57 PM »
I suppose this is the thread where those who celebrate Guy Fawkes Day will congregate.  Is Guy's dream coming true 414 years too late (for him)?
« Last Edit: November 05, 2019, 09:46:31 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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nanning

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #211 on: November 05, 2019, 07:30:28 PM »
Not just for him. For all of 'Great' Britain in my view. Thanks Tor.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #212 on: November 05, 2019, 07:32:58 PM »
<snip>
Fuck him, seriously!

Would you do it? If he would bent over naked in front of you? Would you hammer your point down then and there? ;)
Maybe even slam your fist if you're serious.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #213 on: November 05, 2019, 09:58:37 PM »
OMG ... 🤮
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gerontocrat

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #214 on: November 06, 2019, 12:31:23 AM »
Guy Fawkes night, when all good freedom-loving Englishmen burn a Catholic on a bonfire.

When I was young, this was always done on the 5th November. Now most of us are just economic utils - the servants (& oftimes slaves) of the tin God GDP, it has to be done at the weekend.
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Pmt111500

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #215 on: November 06, 2019, 04:34:18 AM »
...next step to solve this thing
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SATire

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #216 on: November 06, 2019, 08:49:36 AM »
Labour's Brexit position is a two step plan.
Step one: spend three months trying to negotiate a better deal
Step two: have a referendum on whatever deal they get vs remaining.
https://labour.org.uk/page/labour-brexit-plan/
...
OK, I read that... stil-, I would call Labors' option "don't know" because Labors' Brexit is still to be defined in future negotiations which may or may not happen. Personally for me it is totaly unclear why anybody still wants to negotiate and vote about the ever shrinking transition periode ending probably Dec. 2020. Wouldn't it be time to start negotiation about the future relationship between EU and UK? And since that negotiation can only start after the Brexit is agreed on - wouldn't it be time to agree on whatever Brexit transition periode? If you wait 6 month more as needed for labors' idea the deal periode would only be another 6 months. Since 6 months are clearly not enough to negotiate future relationship I would conclude, that labor also wants "no deal" after Dec 2020... but they say other things :-S

So I would like to devide the options given in UK elections in 2 sets: First about the transition time and second about future relationship following the transition periode:

Options for the transition periode (between Brexit day and probably Dec. 2020 + some delays):
1. Brexit party: no transition since no deal right now.
2. Conservative: Johnson deal, thus quite similar to conditions right now minus any influence/rights from UK in EU.
3. labor: no transition periode at all since the time is going to be used for negotiations & referendum. Thus like now/the last years.
4. SNP & liberals: cancellation of Brexit thus no need for any transition periode.

Realistic options for future relation between UK and EU:
1. Brexit party: no deal (down to world trade basis)
2. Conservative: no deal for UK - because the Johnson skipped the backstop for UK for that reason, backstop for NI
3. labor: no deal for UK and NI - because in their plan there is no time to negotiate the future relationship with EU
4. SNP & liberals: remain

What would be your choice?

Conclusion for everybody outside of UK parliament: Stay prepared for "no deal" about Dec. 2020 +- 1 year since most members of parliament are going to work for that (with or without clear intention...).
« Last Edit: November 06, 2019, 09:12:41 AM by SATire »

crandles

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #217 on: November 06, 2019, 12:15:30 PM »


Someone elsewhere asked is there any plausible scenario where british people are not totally stuffed without even a reasonable chance of recovery within 3 years.

Hmm, what do we need:

Hung parliament
BoJo no confidence
Corbyn no confidence
Swinson puts together a deal accepting labour policies on brexit and a few other areas
Corbyn (not done a suitable deal and too old to fight next election) resigns
A50 extension for negotiations and referendum
Customs Union brexit negotiated
CU brexit or Remain referendum, Remain wins
Country and Tories accept will of people in latest referendum
BoJo steps aside so Remainer can lead party
New Labour leader falls out with Swinson leading to No Confidence
Sensible general election result

Oh yes, the question required plausible .....

Does some complicated comprehensive calculation to estimate probability of these 12 things happening being around 0.002%

Well maybe that probability estimate is somewhere around plausible ?  :P :-[ >:( ;)
« Last Edit: November 06, 2019, 12:34:48 PM by crandles »

RealityCheck

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #218 on: November 06, 2019, 09:32:42 PM »
That about sums it up, Crandles 🙄😖
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SATire

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #219 on: November 08, 2019, 08:42:14 AM »
Someone elsewhere asked is there any plausible scenario where british people are not totally stuffed without even a reasonable chance of recovery within 3 years.
...
Sure Britain people harm themself by "doing Brexit". But they also cause a similar harm to the former partners and the people in future rest EU, which had no choice in this matter. It is not foreseeable that this harm is going to be cured one day.
Thus after several years of British ignorance some people here (in future rest EU) are getting tired of wishing "good bye" to the former partner and any kind of "bye" could do as well. But please come to some conclusion what you want and then do it. "You" here means those bodies in UK which have the legislative and excecutive power in UK and NI - over all those referendum, earlier elections, talks and discussions I lost track about who that might be nowadays. Neither the prime minister nor the parliament were able to act - has there been any government existed after May left? If so, what did they govern?

Pmt111500

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #220 on: November 08, 2019, 09:07:54 AM »
Well, they made a deal to brexit and the Tories decided they do not want that deal. They thought they might smuggle stuff to Europe through NI, and as that wasn't an option they went into a tantrum. Something like that.
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johnm33

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #221 on: November 08, 2019, 11:34:54 AM »
The withdrawal agreement is an agreement, on our part, to remain subject to the EU, it's parliament and bureaucracy until such time as a trade deal is concluded. We'll accept all new laws and charges without any say in what they might be, already our armed forces have been handed over to be controlled by Brussels, and they have contingency plans to send up to 35,000 EU troops to Syria. Philip Hammond in anticipation of his coming lucrative appointments to various boards has resigned his [leave] seat having landed us with up to 500bn euros liabilities for the EIB faied loans book, loans yet to be parcelled out, with no upside. With a similar liability in Euros for the ECB when the EU banking sector implodes, three French banks are facing ruin as is Deutsche bank so not long to wait.
Most people signed up for the EU as an open trading area with free movement, not to become a minor province in a western version of the USSR or a rust belt state in a European USAE, which seems like the plan, https://corporateeurope.org/en/2019/02/veto-power-please-lobbyists-corporations-behind-commission-power-grab-over-services
Increasingly the EU is becoming a fascist state, in the older sense of that word, meaning that state and corporate power are inseperable and the states function is to create a compliant populace for corporate exploitation, rather than act as a mediator in the conflicts of interest.
Having raised the issue of leaving the Eurocrats must now prepare to administer the same treatment that Greece got, to discourage the others,
from the slog
"I think I may have been among the first internet commentators on EU gangsterism to run a piece about Tim Geithner saying to an intimate, after his return from the EU Wroclaw Summit of September 2011, “Those bastards in the EC, they are going to beat Greece to a pulp with a f**king baseball bat”. I was told of the exchange by an old contact – a New York based institutional lawyer – and went with it because the person had never been wrong about anything like that….and the record still stands.

In late 2014, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reported a confirmation of the story after reading Geithner’s memoirs. Tim was quoted as follows:

“…..the Europeans came into that meeting basically saying: ‘We’re going to teach the Greeks a lesson. They are really terrible. They lied to us. They suck and they were profligate and took advantage of the whole basic thing and we’re going to crush them.”

Bear in mind that yes the Greeks were running a deficit above the agreed limit but nothing like as large as Frances now 35% which is more than an order of magnitude above that threshold, and the options were to let Frances banks fail or reduce Greece to penury. So yes if we stay they'll batter us if we leave it'll be with added spite and venom if we accept the withdrawal agreement it'll be made easy, but that seems to be what 'our' establishment and professional political class want[?]. A clean break would be better for both.

Pmt111500

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #222 on: November 08, 2019, 01:00:03 PM »
'Clean break', which no one has defined, to my knowledge, is probably the no deal-option so you just have to get the majority of MPs to support it in your next election.
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SATire

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #223 on: November 08, 2019, 02:55:35 PM »
johnm33 - With my brain I can not understand most your words but with my heart I can. It is getting dirty as in a divorce between 2 former lovers. You want to blame the EU for a lot of things while UK still is part of EU and thus you blame UK just as much as any other partner/member of EU. Remember: In EU council every countries' government has veto right - thus nothing ever happened against the will of the UK government. Thus blame your own government first instead of any governments elected by other people. The Eurocrats are as well UKcrats.
Please keep that mud outside or we all just have to run...

blumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #224 on: November 08, 2019, 05:00:40 PM »
How the Brexit Election Could Still Lead to No Deal - Brexit Explained

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Pmt111500

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #225 on: November 08, 2019, 06:33:55 PM »
johnm33 - With my brain I can not understand most your words but with my heart I can. It is getting dirty as in a divorce between 2 former lovers. You want to blame the EU for a lot of things while UK still is part of EU and thus you blame UK just as much as any other partner/member of EU. Remember: In EU council every countries' government has veto right - thus nothing ever happened against the will of the UK government. Thus blame your own government first instead of any governments elected by other people. The Eurocrats are as well UKcrats.
Please keep that mud outside or we all just have to run...

This is an agreement between Nations and not between lovers.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #226 on: November 08, 2019, 07:34:13 PM »
An agreement that made a continent that was literally a war-zone for thousands of years a peaceful and prosperous place where human rights are upheld. Where you can move and trade freely. Where you have great standards for environmental and customer protection.

Can we acknowledge that for a moment?
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SATire

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #227 on: November 08, 2019, 08:26:24 PM »
johnm33 - With my brain I can not understand most your words but with my heart I can. It is getting dirty as in a divorce between 2 former lovers. You want to blame the EU for a lot of things while UK still is part of EU and thus you blame UK just as much as any other partner/member of EU. Remember: In EU council every countries' government has veto right - thus nothing ever happened against the will of the UK government. Thus blame your own government first instead of any governments elected by other people. The Eurocrats are as well UKcrats.
Please keep that mud outside or we all just have to run...

This is an agreement between Nations and not between lovers.
Sure, I am 100% with you. Of course. For that reason I criticized johnm33 for his emotional and unreasonable language and tried to get the discussion back to reason. No need here to get down to rant niveau (facist, Eurocrats, france vs. Greek and whatever mud / dirt language one may use to manipulate by addressing instincts).
Brexit is only in the hand of UK/NI. Decide what you want (whoever "you" has the say there). Answer the question: "Should I stay or should I go now?" (The Clash). But tell us, please. Now.

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #228 on: November 09, 2019, 01:57:01 AM »
I'm saddened seeing the EU weakened and Britain being drawn further into the American camp.


I think Europe will swiftly recover, in part thanks to her growing cooperation with Asian markets. Britain's influence on the world will fade, particularly if the EU tightens the screws. The gigantic moat that once protected the Island Nation will increasingly serve to isolate her from a prosperous  Eurasian continent.


American influence in Europe is waning. NS2's completion will demonstrate just how far Europe has gone in rejecting American demands. Europe's adoption of Huawei's 5th generation internet is another milestone marking Europe's integration with Asia, and her rejection of American edicts. Britain & America are again missing the boat.


Getting Hungary and Poland on board will be a formidable task, but a sufficiently high carbon tax and pressure to meet the Paris Accord's goals will eventually lead to their rejection of coal generation. Pricing pressures will then wean them from American LNG.


Britain I hope will once again muddle through. Not as the world leader she once was, & not as the regional power that she presently is, but hopefully as more than the lesser partner in a crumbling Atlantic hedgenemony.


Terry

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #229 on: November 09, 2019, 06:14:13 AM »
I'm saddened seeing the EU weakened

Well, the whole Brexit debacle caused a die-off of all the anti-EU parties outside of GB. More people now realize without EU it would be even worse. I don't see the EU weakened.
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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #230 on: November 09, 2019, 07:22:46 AM »
I'm saddened seeing the EU weakened

Well, the whole Brexit debacle caused a die-off of all the anti-EU parties outside of GB. More people now realize without EU it would be even worse. I don't see the EU weakened.


Good!
The world needs a strong EU.
Terry

SATire

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #231 on: November 09, 2019, 11:36:11 AM »
I'm saddened seeing the EU weakened

Well, the whole Brexit debacle caused a die-off of all the anti-EU parties outside of GB. More people now realize without EU it would be even worse. I don't see the EU weakened.
BlumenKraft, the EU _is_weakened by Brexit. The acceptance of the EU bodies is increased, so nobody else wants to repeat the British error today - in this point you are right. But the EU is also the sum of its nations and all the people enjoying the 4 freedoms and not only the burocracy in Brussles (which is comparably very small - e.g. similar in size to the administration of the city-state Hamburg).

For EU as a whole Brexit is a burden and it is weakend, because in the last years it put its focus on Brexit and not on the real problems to be solved. So we lost several years in fighting climate change, working for digitalization and industry 4.0, helping neighbours to get harmonized to EU law and fighting corruption, building up an army to compensate for NATO getting obsoleted by Trump, finding answers for the shameless manipulators in our direct neighborhood (Trump, Erdogan, Putin,...) and the autocrats elsewhere (Xi, Iran,...) and much more.

Thus EU lost a lot of time and it is about to loose a very good democratic partner, which helped in the balance North vs. South, Celtic/Romanic vs. Germanic, liberalism - socialism and much more in EU. EU is loosing a lot, really.
Unfortunately I think a remain would not help anymore anyway - to much have been broken and remain could be considered a fraud on both sides. We should not build a future on that. Instead I agree now, that there should be a "clean" thus significant Brexit and Britain should learn, that it is shitty also elswhere. It needs to learn that its own governments was responsible all the time and blaming EU was only a comfortable lie for UK's establishment and upper class. The upper class and Cornwells' smugglers will profit from Brexit of course (unchained from social regulations, freedoms of the people and such) - but one day that will upset the people in UK and that day a re-unification of UK in EU may start. At least I hope...

blumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #232 on: November 09, 2019, 12:25:50 PM »
But the EU is also the sum of its nations and all the people enjoying the 4 freedoms

Ok, but this is ignoring that GB stalled the progression of the EU for decades.

Also, don't forget that they always had _more_ freedom than others. This kind of inequality is a burden IMHO.


Quote
and not only the burocracy in Brussles (which is comparably very small - e.g. similar in size to the administration of the city-state Hamburg).

Yes, for a community of 500mio... It is kind of amazing the right uses this as a talking point. But hey, there are enough idiots eating up that shit.

Quote
Thus EU lost a lot of time

There are resources spend on Brexit from the EU side, yes. But i think this point is overrated and is the same fallacy than the ' too much bureaucracy' one. You can only spend so much time on telling them 'no'.

Quote
and it is about to loose a very good democratic partner, which helped in the balance North vs. South, Celtic/Romanic vs. Germanic, liberalism - socialism and much more in EU. EU is loosing a lot, really.

Yeah, so democratic that they don't even have a constitution. That's very modern...

Quote
Unfortunately I think a remain would not help anymore anyway - to much have been broken and remain could be considered a fraud on both sides.

But GB will remain - one way or another. Even if there is a Brexit (which i doubt), they are not out! With a hard Brexit, a new agreement will be reached and when GB wants the EU as a trading partner they have to bow to all the requirements the EU sees fit. Because GB has become a toothless tiger. Just another dying empire. Nothing will change that fact.
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SATire

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #233 on: November 09, 2019, 02:09:07 PM »
But the EU is also the sum of its nations and all the people enjoying the 4 freedoms

Ok, but this is ignoring that GB stalled the progression of the EU for decades.

...

But GB will remain - one way or another. Even if there is a Brexit (which i doubt), they are not out! With a hard Brexit, a new agreement will be reached and when GB wants the EU as a trading partner they have to bow to all the requirements the EU sees fit. Because GB has become a toothless tiger. Just another dying empire. Nothing will change that fact.
Yes, you are right, I agree. A member not helping to progress is not really a partner. In this sense it does not matter if they are inside or outside EU. And that little bit of customs is not going to hurt us much - that is just about money and it exist way to much of money anyways, mainly used for heating the planet.

Thus - I am back to my popcorn...

blumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #234 on: November 09, 2019, 03:53:18 PM »
Popcorn it is, SATire. :)

And when this sounded like i'm a Brit-hater, i'm not! This was about politics, not the people.

I'm actually a huge admirer of the kulture and the people from the islands. And personally i would very much prefer for the UK to stay European - obviously.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #235 on: November 11, 2019, 02:14:58 PM »
Does Johnson Understand How His Deal Affects Northern Ireland?

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SATire

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #236 on: November 14, 2019, 09:48:24 AM »
Does Johnson Understand How His Deal Affects Northern Ireland?

I am sure that Johnson does understand that one little thing he changed in the transition "deal" with EU. He is well educated and obviously he is not stupid. Thus he is probably lying. He lyied frequently in the past (prooven fact, e.g. when he was "journalist" in Brussels) thus there is no reason to believe him if he is saying anything. Especially when he is saying something in the public/ on TV before an election that is probably a lie.