Brexit...

[longwalks1]

Patrick was/is always the more measured writer than his late brother.   He survived the polio epidemic in Cork, and numerous reporting of events in war zones and he was not in the Green zone in Iraq. 

https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/02/09/the-clash-between-the-uk-and-eu-over-northern-ireland-is-a-precursor-to-confrontations-that-will-last-decades/

“Get your retaliation in first,” is a cynical old saying in Northern Irish politics that means you hit your opponent whenever you can without waiting for a provocation. It neatly captures the violent traditions of the province and explains why the political temperature there is always close to boiling over.

A repartitioning of Ireland by resurrecting a physical barrier along the 300-mile-long land border was never feasible, if only because it largely runs through nationalist/catholic majority areas where any new customs posts would be burned or wrecked as soon they were established. Now the unionist/protestant community is extending a similar veto over an “Irish Sea border”.

The economic relationship may begin to sort itself out in time, but at the cost of much bad political blood while Brexit turbo-charges Irish and Scottish separatism. The furore in Northern Ireland is not an atypical hangover from the past, but the first instalment of a permanent confrontation between Britain and the EU.

[RealityCheck]

The EU's recent clumsy threat to invoke Article 16 of the Brexit Northern Ireland Protocol, although quickly revoked, has given NI unionists like the DUP more than enough political cover to demand the scrapping of this part of the Brexit agreement, so vital to the continued survival of Ireland's peace deal, the Good Friday Agreement. Now we have senior DUP figure Peter Robinson laying out a clear binary choice for his constituency, out loud, on Ireland's national news. There is chaos in supply chains in and out of NI, threats of violence against customs agents in Larne, NI, and now this. He says 'we may have to choose one or the other: GFA or NIP'. If anyone is surprised, they just haven't been paying attention. If he is 'just' kite-flying, he is playing a very dangerous game. If not, you could interpret this as a first step towards a mobilisation... there are plenty of angry people who would need little encouragement. As always, I hope I am wrong. But such hopes have been dashed many times in this saga...

RTE news : Robinson lays out stark choice for unionists

http://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2021/0212/1196757-brexit/

[etienne]

People are crazy right now, don't know how this could end. Looks like Covid has many side effects.
The scary thing is that things don't seem to improve, but to get worse.
It looked like during the negotiation that the EU really didn't want to give to anybody the feeling that leaving could bring anything positive, and that the UK was not able to see that we are in an interconnected world.
If things continue to degrade, it might get difficult to find new ways of cooperation.

Right now the situation is such that I don't order anything from the UK because I have no idea of how much taxes I would pay on the products I ordered. I did a very bad experience ordering fair traide Colombian craft-work online, I received from Fedex an invoice of about 50% of the value of the hat for customs and administrative costs.

[kassy]

Unless you have very different laws in Luxemburg it should be that hard to work out.

We have VAT on anything over 22 euros and for purchases over 150 extra taxes depending on the typeof product with the annoying detail that both shipping and insurance costs are added before taxes. So basically calculate VAT for the total purchase and you have a good estimate.

[etienne]

Unless you have very different laws in Luxemburg it should be that hard to work out.

We have VAT on anything over 22 euros and for purchases over 150 extra taxes depending on the typeof product with the annoying detail that both shipping and insurance costs are added before taxes. So basically calculate VAT for the total purchase and you have a good estimate.

Excepted that I buy for example organic T-shirts that are made outside of the EU. So how can I be sure there won't be any extra tax ?

[SATire]

Etienne,
some parts were excluded from the "deal" - e.g. fashion (12% customs plus the VAT). UK makes more revenue with fashion than with fish, automotive, music and movies together - but it was not important enough it seems. Source (German): https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2021-02/brexit-zoll-bestellungen-online-zollgebuehren-freihandelsabkommen
Many deliveries are returned now, with disappointments and costs on both sides of the channel.

Next problem is the concert business. Elton John is pissed since UK wanted to limit working travel in EU and thus rowdies need a work permit for every country now - impossible to manage. But that is exactly what the Brexiteers wanted: Make it difficult for people to work elsewhere. Maybe they will realize one day, that they are people, too.

Best regards.

[RealityCheck]

Loyalist paramilitaries in NI have raised the stakes in the ongoing poker game over the Good Friday Peace Agreement and the Northern Ireland Brexit Protocol. Notice how careful those quoted are to emphasise the commitment to non-violence remains firm, etc. Then see the 'but' immediately after. Classic. This is not good...

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/04/brexit-northern-ireland-loyalist-armies-renounce-good-friday-agreement

[RealityCheck]

Into the china-shop, a bull has been set loose...
Lord Frost has been busy in his first week in the new job, smashing as much as he can around him.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/04/the-guardian-view-on-lord-frost-control-him-or-sack-him

[RealityCheck]

Meanwhile, the EU has responded in what is essentially the only way it can, unless it were to cave in completely to the UK's unilateral plan to breach the Brexit Agreement. The stakes in this poker game are rising very quickly.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/05/brexit-eu-to-launch-legal-proceedings-against-uk-very-soon

[RealityCheck]

For those who would like further insight into what's going on in NI loyalism and it's historic parallels.

Susan McKay: DUP believes chaos is best plan (via @IrishTimes)
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/susan-mckay-dup-believes-chaos-is-best-plan-1.4501467

[RealityCheck]

Meanwhile, in a sitting room in Cork, an awkward conversation unfolds...

[vox_mundi]

[gerontocrat]

Great Britain's transition to Little Britain England accelerates....

[RealityCheck]

These events are straight from the NI 'playbook' for stoking up the tensions and forcing a hardening of opposing positions. Exactly the same as many times before. It's going to be a difficult summer, with loyalist marching season approaching. There will be lots of opportunities for violence that the paramilitaries of the UVF and their like will seek to exploit. And one main objective will be to provoke a response from their counterparts in the nationalist community. If one were cynical, you'd say this all suits the DUP very nicely, actually... I try to  remain hopeful of a peaceful working out of the Brexit implications for NI, but all the straws in the wind are dark...

Fears mount of another night of violence in Northern Ireland (via @IrishTimes) https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/fears-mount-of-another-night-of-violence-in-northern-ireland-1.4527570