polar vortex - where?

[jdallen]

the reality of the tropospheric jetstreams (150-250mBar) is truly often far from the idealized 2-jet situation commonly displayed in textbooks. tried to track the fastest winds speeds in the current earth wind map...

...(at first it might be interpreted approximately tha +20C-subtropical jet, +5 to +10C-split subtropical jet and -20C-polar jet , but there are some notable exeptions , such as north atlantic and arctic ocean.)

I'm not sure that I see three separate systems, as much as I think I'm just looking at turbulence from the mid-latitudes up to the poles.  I just can't conclude the top "jet" is coherent enough to deserve the name. 

It kind of makes me think of the top of a sauce pan once the water starts to boiling.

[Pmt111500]

no comment to jdallen, but I must say the earth wind map is a great tool. here's a similar sort of image for the southern hemisphere, it looks as if the lower latitude jet gets south of Australia and mixes with the high latitude stream, strengthtening it.

[jdallen]

no comment to jdallen, but I must say the earth wind map is a great tool. here's a similar sort of image for the southern hemisphere,it looks as if the lower latitude jet gets south of Australia and mixes with the high latitude stream, strengthtening it.

- None needed, Pmt; I was being anecdotal rather than factual.  Nothing I said can be seen to invalidate your conclusion.

I do whole heartedly agree with you regarding the value of earth-wind map!

[idunno]

At 10 HPa, the axis of the dipole has rotated...

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/02/21/0600Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-8.88,91.05,279

As is less obvious at 70HPa...

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/02/21/0600Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-8.88,91.05,279

No idea if this is significant. My vague guesstimate is that the real trouble would kick off if the strong winds were to blow up the Atlantic, from approximately the Shetlands towards the North Pole.

[ChrisReynolds]

An aside of interest - during the recent storms Sky News were using the NullEarthSchool plots a lot in commentary of wind strengths and storm impacts.

[pearscot]

It's a long way out but this is interesting for sure

[Bugalugs]

What's this mean? ... https://imgur.com/a/Dc1mhLM#KG7qNt3

Apologies if it has been posted elsewhere.

[sark]

This type of chart is a cross section of the entire polar cell, basically.  Geopotential height = what altitude in feet is a certain pressure reading.  This type of chart has a scale of pressure from top to bottom, and the colors represent height anomalies.  Warm air expands and a big area of warm air is high pressure and takes up more space in the atmosphere, so the geopotential height rises

charts can be found here: 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

watch some Gav's weather vids and Nutrien Ag Solutions forecasts on YouTube and you'll find someone who explains these bits clearly for you

Basically when you look at the Arctic on something like https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/daily_maps/ and you see heat anomalies at the surface, pretty sure fire bet there's a high geopotential height anomaly just about directly overhead

We've had a huge geopotential height anomaly over the Arctic for the past 7 months, more than any other year

it comes down to polar vortex destruction pretty much in both hemispheres

[Bugalugs]

Thanks sark. I am aware of the record stratospheric warming event over the South Pole this year. So both poles this year?

Can confirm flip flop weather in southern Tasmania this November, it went from bushfires in October to constant windy cold fronts with episodes of hail.

I see that the northern hemisphere is getting the real polar vortex breakdown, as we have not had low altitude snow.

Better cold and rain than bushfires.

[Freegrass]

It looks like the polar vortex is about to split again, with the strongest halve over Canada.
Is this now an annual recurring event?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/20/1800Z/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,750

[Freegrass]

And then there were two....

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/22/1200Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-2.36,69.12,653

[iwantatr8]

https://www.space.com/polar-vortex-disruption-snowy-weather

[PragmaticAntithesis]

And then there were two....

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/22/1200Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-2.36,69.12,653

The vortex, it's smiling at me.

[Shared Humanity]

Our mid range weather forecasts in Chicago keep predicting a huge breakout of severe cold weather. It keeps getting pushed out further in the future. The severe cold weather is now forecast to bring highs in the high 20F and lows in the high teens, hardly severe cold.

[El Cid]

Our mid range weather forecasts in Chicago keep predicting a huge breakout of severe cold weather. It keeps getting pushed out further in the future. The severe cold weather is now forecast to bring highs in the high 20F and lows in the high teens, hardly severe cold.

Same here. We were a bit scared 5-8 days ago that a big outbreak of cold would happen sending temps down to -15C (oh no, my figs!!!), but now the forecast was toned down and now only calls for a low around -10 or 11 C which is pretty much the median low value for the winter here. No major breakout seen until the end of January. So far so good.

BUT! GFS does not show the vortex reappearing any time soon which is kind of interesting...I attach the jan 31 10hpa temp forecast...no vortex (and no vortex on any previous date either)

we should see a big dark blue circle over the pole but it disappeared at the beginning of january and is absent for the foreseeable time:

[Bruce Steele]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml

 It looks like the cold over Greenland pushes right across North America and east into the Western North Pacific.
 The SSW warming , or the temperatures at 10, 30, and 50 hPa are currently spiking back up.
 

[dnem]

This is one of the best non-technical pieces I've read on SSW, the PV and effects in the mid-latitudes.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stratospheric-warming-winter-weather-coming/

[HapHazard]

El Cid that image is totally Yin & Yang. heh

[El Cid]

El Cid that image is totally Yin & Yang. heh

Actually it is!!!!