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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
9 (13.2%)
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 621525 times)


  • Frazil ice
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #12300 on: Today at 12:34:15 AM »
A new study published earlier this week estimates that more than 900,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, nearly double the amount recorded by health officials and trackers.


  • Nilas ice
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #12301 on: Today at 01:05:22 AM »
Lets start with Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR)

In India, at least 1% right now

You might say -- woah, that's high

I might say -- whoa, why wasn't it that high last year, when over 50% of inhabitants of large cities developed antibodies?

We already know from South Africa that past infection with the original strain confers no protection from infection with the newer SA variant.  The simple explanation for India's crisis is that the dominant variants in India share this property.

Different variants are clearly displaying distinct properties.  Transmissibility varies among variants.  Protection via prior infection vary.  Some variants show strong resistance to specific vaccines (e.g., AstraZenica shot confers very little protection against the SA variant).

All these variants are cropping up all over the globe.  The fittest variant for any local human population will promptly become dominant.


  • Grease ice
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #12302 on: Today at 01:37:24 AM »
I’m not making excuses, I’m being realistic. Here in Finland the government wanted to close the land border with Sweden in spring 2020. Situation in Sweden was far worse because of their completely different strategy to handle the epidemic.

Closing the border would have collapsed health care system in Northern Sweden because so many of their staff are Finns commuting across the border. After some diplomatic negotiations the plan was scrapped. The goverment isolated Helsinki region instead, because it was easier to do.

Unlike Europe Australia has no international trains, no trucks crossing border many times per day no international commute, no families living across borders. Good luck moving cargo and isolating drivers for two weeks.

Google tells me there was 8.7 million international visitors in Australia in 2019. Meanwhile port of Helsinki handled 12.2 million passengers. The figures are not fully comparable, but then again this is one seaport in a smallish capital of a small and remote European country.

Also, the UK has a land border with Ireland. Not closing this border was the most sensitive issue of the Brexit negotiations.

Australia has State borders, which were closed exactly like borders between countries can be closed. Trucks were stopped at the borders, procedures were in place to ensure they could keep moving, so you are wrong, we did close borders to other areas and it worked... just like it would have in other countries. This includes finding ways around daily commuters.
As I said, we are smart, we would find ways around the obstacles, much like Australia did, and much like Sweden/Finland did.

I didnt say they isolated truck drivers for two weeks per state crossing, I said they found a way to make it work. Testing everyone, cleaning every truck, things they vastly reduce the chances of the virus moving around.

8.7 million people flying in is still a whole bunch of people coming into the country. It was more than enough to get Covid here within a very short span of time.
I would hazard a guess and say that if tourism had been stopped early on, all those fancy rich people wouldnt have traveled, caught Covid, and brought it back home. Rich people, the ones that fly public and private, are probably the main reason Covid spread so rapidly. But we better stop letting those people do their tourist trips and snow runs and business trips because they must have their precious freedoms all the time regardless of the consequences.

Closing borders between Ireland and UK is not a political problem, it is a health emergency problem... they are not the same thing. But keep on making the excuses.


  • Grease ice
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #12303 on: Today at 01:45:18 AM »
International travel - especially tourism, is a large part of many countries' economy.

So it is part of the equation Govenments attempt to balance, often badly - health risk vs economic risk.

I agree, tourism matters for the economy.
People not dying is as well.

Australia, New Zealand and small islands like Samoa (there are others) all lost a lot of economic activity because of the closed borders. Tourism plays a significant part of the economy in all three countries.
Yet, all three countries did it anyway, all three are essentially Covid free, all three have no real restrictions beyond the odd cluster event.

The rest of the world (barring the other countries that did what worked for them) is still losing the fight against Covid.
It could be done.
But the politicians dont care about the public they are charged to protect.

A short, sharp hit of social isolation done properly, testing and tracing, and some other things, is enough to stop Covid in its tracks.
Three months tops, but not like Melbourne did, not as harsh, and we could severely hurt the spread of Covid with lesser restrictions than we went through.

It wont happen, not because it cant, but because we refuse to do it.

Eventually the death rate will become old news, people will accept the high death rates, shorter lives, organ damage news and yearly vaccinations just to keep bringing in the fantasy we call money.


  • First-year ice
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #12304 on: Today at 04:24:08 AM »
Re:  why wasn't it that high last year, when over 50% of inhabitants of large cities developed antibodies?

Hospitals were slitely less collapsed then ?