Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD  (Read 510084 times)

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1720
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 393
  • Likes Given: 67
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1850 on: December 10, 2019, 12:52:54 PM »
Quote
That sprayer system shown in the beginning of the video is draining the ogallala aquifer complex dry to grow corn/soy in the desert. Draining the ogallala is not a good idea even to build carbon in the soil. Lets hope he finds a better way, one that might even regenerate aquifer.
I've been hearing the ogallala is about to run out of water any day now as long as I can remember. I know the level has been dropping, but can anyone get a firm answer on how much lower it can go?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

sidd

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4985
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 387
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1851 on: December 10, 2019, 10:50:14 PM »
Re: ogallala

In my trips out west i spoke to many farmers reliant on pumped irrigation from the aquifer. Their major concern at present is not running out of aquifer, rather running out of money to pump from deeper and deeper wells ...

sidd

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1852 on: December 10, 2019, 11:49:15 PM »
Re: ogallala

In my trips out west i spoke to many farmers reliant on pumped irrigation from the aquifer. Their major concern at present is not running out of aquifer, rather running out of money to pump from deeper and deeper wells ...

sidd
sidd,

to my surprise some farmers have got the message and are trying to do something about it.

https://civileats.com/2019/11/18/high-plains-farmers-race-to-save-the-ogallala-aquifer/
Quote
BY GRETA MORAN
Climate, ENVIRONMENT, FARMING, Regenerative Agriculture, Water
Posted on: November 18, 2019  |  Leave a Comment 
About a decade ago, Chris Grotegut realized that he had to start pumping much less groundwater out of his wells. It dawned on the cattle rancher and grain farmer that if he didn’t act soon, there may not be enough water to sustain his 11,000-acre farm in Hereford, Texas—much less to support the next generation on his land.

It’s well-documented that the Ogallala Aquifer, which supplies water to Grotegut’s land, is rapidly depleting. Nearby farms in the High Plains of the Texas Panhandle have experienced worse—many of their wells are going dry. As the aquifer draws lower, the future of agriculture in the region becomes an open question—and the answer depends, in part, on whether enough farmers can shift their practices to sustain on less groundwater.

“We must live within our ecological means in order to give those same ecological opportunities to the next generation,” said Grotegut, who is as much a self-taught ecologist as he is a farmer. “The ethical problem is, what are we leaving our kids?”

read on, worth it

But I lost a farmer's blog on how no-till farming + other stuff (especially mulch) meant water levels in his wells are rising.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

sidd

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4985
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 387
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1853 on: December 11, 2019, 05:55:33 AM »
Thanks for the link. In that article there is a link to a wapo article (among many others)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/09/12/how-long-before-the-midwest-runs-out-of-water/

that might partly answer Mr. Manzanec's question.

sidd

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 372
  • Likes Given: 381
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1854 on: December 11, 2019, 10:50:24 AM »
Large atmospheric waves in the jet stream present risk to global food production

In a new study published today in Nature Climate Change, scientists show how specific wave patterns in the jet stream strongly increase the chance of co-occurring heatwaves in major food producing regions of Northern America, Western Europe and Asia. Their research finds that these simultaneous heatwaves significantly reduce crop production across those regions, creating the risk of multiple harvest failures and other far-reaching societal consequences, including social unrest.

...

"We found a 20-fold increase in the risk of simultaneous heatwaves in major crop producing regions when these global scale wind patterns are in place. Until now this was an underexplored vulnerability in the food system. We have found that during these events there actually is a global structure in the otherwise quite chaotic circulation. The bell can ring in multiple regions at once and the impacts of those specific interconnections were not quantified previously."

Western North America, Western Europe and the Caspian Sea region are particularly susceptible to these atmospheric patterns that get heat and drought locked into one place simultaneously where they then affect crops production yields.

for details see:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/12/191209112147.htm
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1720
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 393
  • Likes Given: 67
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1855 on: December 11, 2019, 12:41:55 PM »
Thanks for the link. In that article there is a link to a wapo article (among many others)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/09/12/how-long-before-the-midwest-runs-out-of-water/

that might partly answer Mr. Manzanec's question.

sidd

I can't afford to subscribe...can you tell me the answer?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 372
  • Likes Given: 381
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1856 on: December 11, 2019, 02:38:36 PM »
There is not one simple answer.

The depth of the Ogallala varies with the shape of then-prevailing surface, being deepest where it fills ancient valleys and channels. The Ogallala Formation consists mostly of coarse sedimentary rocks in its deeper sections, which transition upward into finer-grained material.

The water-saturated thickness of the Ogallala Formation ranges from a few feet to more than 1,000 feet. Its deepest part is 1200 ft. (300 m) and is generally greater in the Northern Plains.[10] The depth of the water below the surface of the land ranges from almost 400 feet (120 m) in parts of the north to between 100 and 200 feet (30 and 61 m) throughout much of the south.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogallala_Aquifer

Similar but free articles:
http://duwaterlawreview.com/crisis-on-the-high-plains-the-loss-of-americas-largest-aquifer-the-ogallala/

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-ogallala-aquifer/

As sidd points out above for some small farmers they might not be able to pump from depths.

In general a lot can be done with choice of crop or drought resistant varieties and this could add decades because even small measures add up because of the scale.

As time goes on more surface streams will disappear , 268 km to 2060 or so which will not improve the area. And there is PFAS and related pollution seeping in.

So there is not a fixed year. Depends on where you are in the area and what you can spend.
And it depends on the measures taken for the area.

It is a balancing act over time. You have city populations that need water the rest can be used for farming but when it runs out it is gone (although it freely replenishes we just have to wait for 6000 years) . So the key policy question is how long do you want to farm?

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1720
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 393
  • Likes Given: 67
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1857 on: December 11, 2019, 03:51:59 PM »
If the whole ogalalla were drained, how much of a millimeter would that raise sea level?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

sidd

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4985
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 387
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1858 on: December 11, 2019, 09:36:56 PM »
wikipedia:

"The USGS estimated that total water storage was about 2,925,000,000 acre feet (3,608 km3) in 2005. This is a decline of about 253,000,000 acre feet (312 km3), or 9%, since substantial groundwater irrigation development began in the 1950s."

3600 km^3 is about 10 mm global SLR

sidd

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1720
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 393
  • Likes Given: 67
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1859 on: December 12, 2019, 12:28:47 AM »
Wow.
That is ten or twenty times more than I expected!
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS