World of 2030

[bluice]

At some point emissions must stop or we will face a civilizational collapse. Meanwhile renewables and batteries are getting cheaper. These trends will squeeze the fossil fuel corporations as is already happening in the coal industry. Backward-looking politicians such as Trump or Australia’s Morrison may try to delay the inevitable but they cannot change the laws of physics nor can they stop the market inertia.

There is problem that most forget:

As long as fossil fuels and it's derivatives are not banned/prohibited, each single drop of it will be pumped out of the earth.

Only that some of the ongoing changes shall make this happen over 100-150 years instead of 50-80 years but 150 or even 200 years are still a way too short time period to dodge the consequences.

Ergo, only way to dodge the cannon ball(s) is prohibition worldwide and this, to be honest, is nowhere in sight.

Well, yes and no.

Fossil fuels are used when the marginal cost of fuel extraction is less than the benefit of fuel consumption. (Also, the ROI must be higher in fossil fuel extraction than available ROI of an alternative investment, otherwise the capital will be invested in more profitable assets.)

We already have known FF deposits, mainly coal but also oil and gas, that are left unused simply because extracting them is not economically feasible.

But you are right that the cost-benefit calculus is and will be affected by policy and people’s preferences. Contrary to common misconception economics is not physics.

[sidd]

Re: marginal cost of fuel extraction is less than the benefit of fuel consumption

Until externalities are fairly priced, cost/benefit calculations are worthless

sidd

[blumenkraft]

Couldn't agree more.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Eventually (perhaps before 2030?) we will reach a point where, even without externalities, the ROI of marginal FF resources will make extracting them impossible.
When it takes more energy to get it out than you get from burning it, that is game over.

[blumenkraft]

But other sectors will still depend on FFs. Like the chemical industry.

Renewables might make plastics and drugs more expensive to produce.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Yes, Isaac Asimov wrote a short story where petroleum still being useful (for chemical synthesis) to an atomic powered society was a minor plot point.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Doug Casey’s Top 7 Predictions for the 2020s
https://internationalman.com/articles/doug-caseys-top-7-predictions-for-the-2020s/

1 Demographics
2 The Greater Depression
3 The Election of a Left Wing Democrat
4 China Implodes
5 The United States Starts a Major War
6 US Dollar Loses Its Top Status
7 The Singularity

[blumenkraft]

7) LOL

[Tom_Mazanec]

7) LOL

Well, 6 out of 7 ain’t bad.

[oren]

I was not impressed with the article at all. It smells of strong political and racial bias. And of 1-7, maybe 2 and 5 are plausible, but even those not in the way described.

[kassy]

1 Demographics

How to ruin a list from entry one. Demographics is counting people being born and passing away. You have that as long as you have people. 

[Tom_Mazanec]

1 Demographics

How to ruin a list from entry one. Demographics is counting people being born and passing away. You have that as long as you have people. 

Well, I used his titles.

[gerontocrat]

1 Demographics

How to ruin a list from entry one. Demographics is counting people being born and passing away. You have that as long as you have people. 

Well, I used his titles.

Demographics also includes the composition of the population, life expectancy birth and death rates (actual and trends) and  using that data to project population trends.

In China, those projections suggest population will peak sometime in the mid to late 2020's, and then decline, slowly and then at a gradually increasing rate.

This also means an ageing population, and since there is no immigration the proportion of the population of working age to the retired will decrease substantially. (AI & Automation to the rescue?)
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=post;quote=243183;topic=2651.200

JAPAN is already there with an extremely low birthrate (young people don't want the financial burden of a child), the  annual number of births in Japan (Japanese) has declined from 2.09 million in 1973 to 1.01 million in 2015. Compared with the population in 2015 of 127 million (125 million in 2019), based on the low-fertility projection, the total population is expected to fall below 100 million by 2049 and to decline to 82 million by 2065.
http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/e/zenkoku_e2017/pp_zenkoku2017e_gaiyou.html

Without immigration the USA would likely be well on the way to a similar situation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/18/upshot/how-much-slower-would-the-us-grow-without-immigration-in-many-places-a-lot.html

As the United States debates the right levels of immigration — and whether, as President Trump suggested, there is room for much more of it — new census data shows that international migration is keeping population growth above water in much of the country.

Although international migration dropped in 2017 and 2018, it accounted for nearly half of overall American population growth in 2018 as birth rates declined and death rates rose.

.

Overall the birth rate of the European Union is 1.6 per woman of child-bearing age, less than that required to maintain the population. Without immigration, EU population would be gradually reducing, especially in Germany and Italy.

[Tom_Mazanec]

What Will Another Decade of Climate Crisis Bring?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/01/13/what-will-another-decade-of-climate-crisis-bring

Every decade is consequential in its own way, but the twenty-twenties will be consequential in a more or less permanent way. Global CO2 emissions are now so high—in 2019, they hit a new record of forty-three billion metric tons—that ten more years of the same will be nothing short of cataclysmic. Unless emissions are reduced, and radically, a rise of two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) will be pretty much unavoidable by 2030. This will make the demise of the world’s coral reefs, the inundation of most low-lying island nations, incessant heat waves and fires and misery for millions—perhaps billions—of people equally unavoidable.

[Tom_Mazanec]

2020s - The Decade Ahead
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3kPgtSb2UI&feature=youtu.be

Energy & resource things to expect in the 2020s ; peak oil, peak gold, worsening climate disasters, EV & green energy expansion, population levels, and more.

[TerryM]

Tom
How will the world react as increasing numbers recognise the damage that national leaders and corporations done to their future?
Revolutions, coups, wars - or 9 to 5, TV evenings, and weekends in Las Vegas.
I'm guessing the latter.


Dreaming of a wonderful future is much easier than contemplating horror.
Terry

[Tom_Mazanec]

Tom
How will the world react as increasing numbers recognise the damage that national leaders and corporations done to their future?
Revolutions, coups, wars - or 9 to 5, TV evenings, and weekends in Las Vegas.
I'm guessing the latter.


Dreaming of a wonderful future is much easier than contemplating horror.
Terry

I’m guessing first the latter, then as the damage grows too great the former, but then it may be too late.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Predictions for the 2020s
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2020/01/predictions-for-2020s.html

A particular canary in the coal mine is likely be the fracking industry. It never really made any money, but it did win the US a reprieve from the ravages of Peak Oil. And now production from fracked wells is peaking, depletion rates are going up, fracking companies are going bankrupt and the newly drilled wells are less oily and more gassy, with the gas not particularly high-quality or valuable. At some point during this decade the US will again be forced to rely on importing most of its oil and gas. Meanwhile, any attempt at a Green New Deal to decarbonize the US economy will result in a cost structure for electricity and transportation that will make virtually every kind of industrial production noncompetitive, as has already happened everywhere this has been tried, including the UK and Germany.

Facts and Speculations – Next Decade
https://deviantinvestor.com/11166/facts-and-speculations-next-decade/

Inflate or die! It is likely that runaway inflation or a deflationary depression are in our future—maybe both. I expect massive inflation followed by a deflationary collapse. That fits the “DNA” and “printing” inclinations of central banks. We shall see.
Deficit spending, debt creation, fiscal and monetary craziness, and political nonsense are dominant. They will self-destruct to the detriment of many people.
Prices for gold, S&P 500, food and gasoline will be much higher in 5—10 years. Individuals will express their displeasure at the ballot box and in the streets. Think Paris and other cities.
Gold and silver have preserved wealth for centuries. Can we say the same for pounds, dollars, or sovereign debt?

[Tom_Mazanec]

Surf's Up
https://www.peakprosperity.com/surfs-up/

The one thing I’d like to leave you with is this: if you want a future worth having, get busy. Take that first step.  Don’t wait.

It’s time.

Why? Because the next 8 – 10 years are going to completely reshape everything we think we know about ‘how things work.’

Once the impossibility of infinite growth on a finite planet really sinks in, vast new opportunities will open up and just as vast avenues of standard operating procedure will close down.

Broadly speaking, anything dependent on squandering cheap energy will be out. And anything offering more efficient ways to produce and distribute goods and services will be in.

Sorry malls. Goodbye McMansions. Sayonara to endless debt-fueled growth. The future will be all about living within our means.

Each of these and countless other changes will rock the very firmament of how people live, work and play.  The new opportunities will be nearly endless, while many things you now see about you will be decommissioned and dismantled.

The Fed Can't Reverse the Decline of Financialization and Globalization
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-fed-cant-reverse-decline-of.html

The prey always seem limitless to the predators, but this illusion expires when suddenly there is no longer enough for the ravenous pack of financial predators. At that point, the predators turn on each other. That is the narrative that will come to the fore in 2020 and play out in the decade ahead.

"There's Always A Bubble In The '20s": These Are The Top Bull And Bear Arguments
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/theres-always-bubble-20s-these-are-top-bull-and-bear-arguments

[Tor Bejnar]

cross post:

Mussels could be growing in ANTARCTICA within the next decade as human activity and climate change wreak havoc on the frozen continent's biodiversity


Mussels could be growing in Antarctica in the next ten years thanks to warmer waters caused by climate change and 'increased human activity', researchers claim.

Scientists analysed hundreds of studies to determine which species are 'most likely' to colonise the Antarctic Peninsula Region by 2030.

The British Antarctic Survey created a list of their 13 most concerning species, which features three species of mussel - Common blue, Chilean and Mediterranean.

Others on the list of invasive species include crabs, kelp and buttonweed. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-7881167/Mussels-growing-ANTARCTICA-decade.html

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14938

[Tor Bejnar]

partial cross-post:

WEF Risks Report Ranks Climate Change as Biggest Global Threat
https://www.dw.com/en/wef-risks-report-ranks-climate-change-as-biggest-global-threat/a-51997420

In its 15th Global Risks Report published on Wednesday, the World Economic Forum (WEF) has said that for the first time in the report's history all of the "top long-term risks by likelihood" are environmental. While in the previous decade economic and financial crises were seen as most dangerous, the report has found that risk perceptions have shifted to extreme weather, environmental disasters, biodiversity loss, natural catastrophes and failure to mitigate climate change.

...

"The near-term impacts of climate change add up to a planetary emergency that will include loss of life, social and geopolitical tensions and negative economic impacts," the report says, adding that failure of climate change mitigation and adaption is the No. 1 risk by impact and number two by likelihood over the next 10 years.

With it comes the loss of biodiversity — ranked as the second most impactful and third most likely risk for the next decade — which has critical implications for humanity due to the likely collapse of food and health systems and disruptions of entire supply chains.

...

[The Walrus]

Tor,
The report listed 5 environmental risks over the next 10 years; extreme weather, climate action failure, natural disaster, biodiversity loss, and human-made environmental disasters.  The last two items on the list are completely independent of climate change.  Climate action failure is an emotional response, which is less a result of climate change than socio-political issues.  Natural disaster and extreme weather should be categorized as one, as several natural disasters are unrelated to climate change (such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions).  The report is large on rhetoric, but soft on science.  I guess that is be expected from the World Economic Forum.

[gerontocrat]

WEF Risks Report Ranks Climate Change as Biggest Global Threat

But what will come from it ?

'Fine words butter no parsnips'
_______________________________________________________________________
https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/fine-words-butter-no-parsnips.html
What's the origin of the phrase 'Fine words butter no parsnips'? Before potatoes, parsnips were a staple of the English diet. This proverbial saying is English and dates from the 17th century. It expresses the notion that fine words count for nothing and that action means more than flattery or promises.

[gerontocrat]

Maybe Attenborough's Swansong is coming soon.

Here is the trailer - could be labelled "it's now or never".
 

[nanning]

Thanks for that gerontocrat.

A bit off topic or maybe not:
Do you know how to make sweetener/sugar from parsnips? Is it the same refining process as for sugar beets? How does it work? Can I do it myself?

From wikipedia:  "It was used as a sweetener before the arrival in Europe of cane sugar."
I'm moving away from all products from outside of Europe and I am struggling to get rid of the organic cane sugar I now use. Honey is too expensive for me and most organic honey offered in the shops is from outside of Europe, mainly South/Middle-America.

[kassy]

It was used as a sweet ingredient so you can put in a cake or a jam but not in tea.

[gerontocrat]

Thanks for that gerontocrat.

A bit off topic or maybe not:
Do you know how to make sweetener/sugar from parsnips? Is it the same refining process as for sugar beets? How does it work? Can I do it myself?

From wikipedia:  "It was used as a sweetener before the arrival in Europe of cane sugar."
I'm moving away from all products from outside of Europe and I am struggling to get rid of the organic cane sugar I now use. Honey is too expensive for me and most organic honey offered in the shops is from outside of Europe, mainly South/Middle-America.

Only one thing left for you to do, Nanning - Learn to be a beekeeper ?

[nanning]

Thank kassy and gerontocrat.

Learning to be a beekeeper would've been very interesting to me some time ago but now I can't anymore because it clashes with my non-supremacy over living nature, over other lifeforms.
I would have had no problem with taking honey out of a bees' nest in living nature were it not that we are in an anthropogenic insectageddon and the bees in particular aren't doing so well. I can of course lose the sweeteners altogether in my diet but... not yet. Having made so many sacrifices, I cling to a couple of last indulgences.

[Tom_Mazanec]

nanning, what do you mean by "lifeforms"? Vegetables you eat are lifeforms. Is this where you draw the line?

[nanning]

Yes vegetables are lifeforms. It is no problem if you perform your biological functions in an eco-system kind of way in the civilisation culture. That means for me to eat organic and not more than I need and not throw away food.
It also means not mowing the grass.
I found out after I bought them for my new apartment, that potted plants are also a form of supremacy. It is insane that I have to give them water and that they are not in the Earth. I can't put them outside because they'll die. So I keep them and not buy any plants again.

Living without exercising supremacy over living nature is impossible/extremely difficult in our (rich country) civilisation culture. Perhaps if you would own some land you could do it but I doubt it and it's only for rich persons (land owners).
It is not so black and white as it seems and many times very difficult to find the best behaviour. I'd say the last couple of percent of culture-normal bad behaviour is OK if the other 95+% is covered. Try to copy me

[Tom_Mazanec]

When I owned a large plot if I hadn’t mowed the lawn I would have got in big trouble.

[Bruce Steele]

Nanning, Have you any access to an allotment ? I used to keep a nice garden in an allotment ( community garden ) . It was interesting because there was a very broad cultural background for the various gardeners and plots. Lots of things growing you might not be familiar with. Only thing I ever had stolen was a very nice crop of spray millet.
 There is a South American plant called Yacon that produces copious amounts of large tubers that can be boiled and reduced into a syrup. It is very sweet but it is a polysaccharide so you have to let your body slowly adapt to it. Don’t eat a lot the first day ! Your methane production may increase.
 

[TerryM]

nanning
With climate change, is staying with crops that traditionally grew in a certain region a reasonable goal?


Some of the Mexican/American Southwest agaves can stand (moderate) winters and might be sweeter than cane sugar. Well drained soil & full sunlight seem to be all that's required.


Terry

[ArcticMelt2]

The first 50 megawatted wind turbines are expected to begin operations in 2030. They will be the height of the Empire State Building and their loading factor close to 100%. This will remove the problem of storing green electricity. In this regard, the threat of climate catastrophe will be removed.

https://www.betterworldsolutions.eu/lockheed-martin-designed-giant-wind-turbine-of-50-mw/

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/design-for-50mw-offshore-wind-turbine-inspired-by-palm-trees







A small prototype of such a turbine is already being built in the USA:

Prototype testing planned for late summer in Colorado
The research team will soon put their design concepts to the test in the real world. By late summer, testing will begin on prototype blades built at one-fifth scale to the 105-meter-long blades designed for a 13.2-megawatt SUMR turbine.

The two-bladed rotor, with 21-meter blades, will be installed on a 12-story turbine tower at NREL’s National Wind Technology Center located south of Boulder, Colorado.

An engineering and manufacturing firm based in northern Washington state that specializes in advanced composite materials and exotic metals, Janicki Industries, is building the blades, with delivery expected in early summer.

“We’re doing some things that haven’t been done before in terms of mimicking the loads and dynamics of the full-scale turbine,” said Todd Griffith. “We’re able to bring those characteristics down to the one-fifth scale where we can do the test very cost-effectively.”

Performance data from the prototype testing will be fed back into the team’s design models. The project team is scheduled to complete the design for a 50-megawatt SUMR turbine by next spring.

[sidd]

I saw this design a couple years ago. I bounced it off a couple aerospace profs i know, they were skeptical. Should follow up, i suppose.

sidd

[ArcticMelt2]

I saw this design a couple years ago. I bounced it off a couple aerospace profs i know, they were skeptical. Should follow up, i suppose.

sidd

But over the past two years, technology has not stood. In the United States, General Electric has recently mastered the production of a 12 megawatt turbine with 107 meter blades. The loading factor of this turbine is about 63%. It is likely that by 2030 50 megawatt turbines with 200-meter blades and almost 100% load factor will appear.

This means a complete solution to the problem of energy storage.

[ArcticMelt2]

Orders for a 12-megawatt model are already thousands of turbine.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/ge-wins-lands-first-big-deals-for-12mw-offshore-wind-turbine

The first orders for GE’s groundbreaking 12-megawatt Haliade-X offshore wind turbine have come from the industrial giant's home country, with developer Ørsted planning to deploy more than 1,200 megawatts of the machines in U.S. waters between 2022 and 2024.

GE on Thursday announced it has secured “preferred turbine supplier” status for Ørsted’s 120-megawatt Skipjack and 1,100-megawatt Ocean Wind projects, scheduled for completion off Maryland and New Jersey in 2022 and 2024. Both projects have offtake contracts in place.

The turbines and blades will be manufactured at GE's facilities in France and transported to the project sites.

https://energyindustryreview.com/renewables/dogger-bank-to-use-12mw-haliade-x-offshore-wind-turbines-from-ge/

Dogger Bank to Use 12MW Haliade-X Offshore Wind Turbines from GE

Dogger Bank Wind Farms is a 50:50 joint venture (JV) between Equinor and SSE Renewables. The overall wind farm comprises three 1.2 GW projects located in the North Sea, approximately 130km from the UK’s Yorkshire Coast. The projects were recently successful in the latest Contracts for Difference (CfDs) Allocation Round, the UK Government’s auction for renewable power.

In these latest news, they directly write that by 2030 at least 20 megawatt turbines will appear:

https://energyindustryreview.com/renewables/dogger-bank-to-use-12mw-haliade-x-offshore-wind-turbines-from-ge/

While Haliade-X is the largest turbine for which orders are being placed today, WoodMac expects 16-megawatt machines to be installed in U.S. waters by the end of the 2020s and product lines to include turbines of up to 20 megawatts.

[ArcticMelt2]

Or additional numbers. In 2018, the average capacity of installed offshore turbines in Europe almost reached 7 megawatts.

https://windeurope.org/wp-content/uploads/files/about-wind/statistics/WindEurope-Annual-Offshore-Statistics-2018.pdf

In 2018 the average rated capacity of newly installed turbines was 6.8 MW, 15% larger than in 2017. Since 2014 the average rated capacity of newly installed wind turbines has grown at an annual rate of 16%. The largest turbine in the world was installed in the United Kingdom in 2018. Two V164-8.8 MW from MHI Vestas Offshore Wind, with a rotor diameter of 164 m, were connected at the European Offshore Wind Development Centre (EOWDC) wind farm.

Europe connected 2,649 MW of net offshore wind power capacity (409 turbines) in 2018. This is 15.8 % lower than in 2017, which was a record year. It added 2,660 MW of new (gross) capacity. 7 turbines were fully decommissioned at the Utgrunden I wind farm in Sweden, which was commissioned back in 2000. This accounts for the decommission of 10.5 MW in 2018.

The world of 2030 is a world of giant windmills.

[gerontocrat]

From April 2002 to November 2019, the GRACE and GRACE-FO satellites have recorded a  total Greenland+Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Loss of 7,000 Gigatonnes, that has caused a sea level rise of nearly 20 millimetres.

To be added to that is sea level rise from melting glaciers and ice sheets elsewhere in the world,
estimated (2003 to 2018) at a mass loss of about 3000 Gt, equivalent to a sea level rise of 8 mm.

Sea level rise due to ocean water expansion from ocean heating is perhaps around 1.4 mm per annum., i.e about 28 mm this century.

i.e. Sea level rise this century of at least 50mm.

Anybody got a guess of what we get in the next 10 years?

[nanning]

Bruce and Terry, good morning, thanks for the interest and suggestions guys, much appreciated.

Thanks for the ideas dear Bruce. I have no access to an allotment but it is possible to rent garden space from a communal one. It is not cheap and would seriously press on my budget. In addition I need to buy basic equipment and seeds/covers/stakes to make it work. In these times every single household has all sorts of the exact same equipment and don't share.
I have lived in this apartment for more than a year and still have not been able to hang anything on my walls because I don't have a drill but I know all those households around me will each have a drill. -Rrringg- "Sir could I please borrow your drill?" "Who are you?" "No, maybe the neighbour". I hardly know anyone here. This may change in the future but people (grown-ups) in general are not very open and trusting when they have accumulated a lot and are in the process of accumulating more.
Of course there must be nice kind and open welcoming people who like to share but I haven't met them yet, well perhaps I did where I'm sitting in the woods but they need to trust me first. I am this homeless looking guy sitting for hours every day on the same bench. My apartment complex mainly houses (very) old people and couples who have no need for equipment and keep mostly to themselves. Closed curtains and all that.
For a local sweetener I could try sugar beets and boil/syrup them (thanks for the tip) to get unrefined white crystal sugar. Are sugar beets local? Looks like I am making things very very difficult for myself. Likely unsolvable.
Extra methane production from my symbiotic friend? O no!

Dear Terry, I don't know if that's a reasonable goal. I am no expert but here in Friesland the thing that's been a bit of a threat is prolonged drought. Nothing serious yet. There is not much food grown for human consumption here. Endless rows of mono-culture ryegrass fields that get mowed (shaven) many times per year to feed the indoor cattle. And some Corn, also for cattle.
I am a bit lost in how to proceed because I refuse to just find a solution for myself. Most people only care for themselves with their foodgrowing and don't share. I see all those allotments and private vegetable gardens showing nice food but they are far out of reach for me, being privately owned. Everyone for himself is not my forté. I don't want to make the same mistake. This is not just about finding an alternative sweetener.
I thought about growing Chinese yams on my balcony but 1. they are not local and 2. it will be a potted plant and I recently (see above post) changed my view on that.
It looks I have painted myself into a corner with my world view and life choices to match that understanding.
I am still learning about what our local foods of old are. Then again, almost all mono-culture fields are sprayed with biocides. Soil degradation will become prominent in the not so distant future I think. So I don't know whether or not those original local crops will be able to grow as they used to. Man I know hardly anything of growing food. Foraging is not an option because almost every piece of available fertile land is already used for mono-agriculture. There are some organic farms but they get no help/exemptions from government regulations even though the strict rules are made to stop the bad behaviour of agri-industry, so it's decouraged and difficult for farmers to convert more land to organic production. What a world.

Apologies for this messy post. My thoughts on this are not yet in line with each other.

Did you know? I have read the other day that The Netherlands is the world's second largest exporter of agricultural produce after the U.S.A.. Most of that is indoor grown in greenhouses and takes up an enormous amount of dirty energy and chemicals. Is a crash of those exports and implied economic growth dip to be expected in the next 10 years? The whole giant sector needs to change and will be impossible to go on like they have.

[sidd]

Re: 50MW windmill design

I think the main problem of the profs i spoke with were the joints where  the blades would fold almost perpendicular to the support tower in high wind, they were doubtful that design would be robust enuf.

sidd

[El Cid]

Anybody got a guess of what we get in the next 10 years?

Based on your numbers I would say 5-8 cms sea level rise until 2030. Nothing to write home about. (don't misunderstand me, it is a serious long term problem and whole countries will be uinder water in 100-200 years, but not much to create interest in 10 years(

[El Cid]

nanning,

No offens, but you are a typical dreamer (I know some) who fantasizes a lot about ecosystems and sustainable living, but you can not grow even a tiny part of your own food. I agree with Bruce, get an allotment. Using nothing else than good, homemade compost and some care, you can grow 2-8 kgs of produce per m2 per year with organic, no dig methods. You will also learn a lot about ecosystems as well, get some exercise and have a great time in your small parcel of polyculture as an added bonus.  You can grow flowers, clovers, lavander and lupins (my favourite!) interspersed with vegetables. You will see all sorts of bumblebees working on these and then other bugs and birds will come. Put out some old, rotting wood for snakes (I have a few Aesculapian snakes in my garden and various toads as well) to hide under. There is a beautiful world out there to be watched and cared for! That is how the world of 2030 will be a better one...

[Tom_Mazanec]

I don’t have a drill, I just hammer a nail in the wall.

[blumenkraft]

El Cid, in your country, do you just ask and then you get a piece of land to grow your stuff?

[El Cid]

El Cid, in your country, do you just ask and then you get a piece of land to grow your stuff?

I am lucky to have my own, quite big piece of land (4000m2) around my house with fruit trees and a few older pines and oaks, a big yew tree, hazels, and vegetables, various berries, a small parcel of alfalafa, flowers, etc. I know I am lucky with all this. I also own a forest and some agricultural land. I am quite well off, but that is not the point.

The point is that as far as I know, in many countries you have community gardens, allotments, etc, which you can rent for a nominal fee. Even in my country there are a lot of small villages, where land is virtually free. In fact, a few Dutch farmers and pensioner are moving in. Also some Germans and Austrians are buying old peasant houses in villages with big pieces of land for a few thousand euros near some nice forests/streams. Yes, you have to renovate it, and put a lot of effort into making it all look beautiful.
I just wanted to say that if you want to live a life close to "Nature" and working the land, it is far from impossible for many people.

[blumenkraft]

The point i was trying to make is that you might be arguing from a privileged perspective and that a poor person cannot just have their own garden.

And your answer is a big fat QED.

[Aporia_filia]

nanning, we must be as consequent as possible with the way we think, but don't forget that you should also admit some adaptation crutches. It's almost impossible not to have an influence on the environment, which is natural.
You're receiving money from the Government, aren't you? Is it totally clean money?
Here, in this valley in the middle of a mountain riff, you can forage most of the year, you can grow your food by planting trees and vegetables that become part of the natural environment. Why introducing some plants that cannot become a danger for the rest, is a bad thing? You can even have free meat stealing some of what the wolves kill, my dogs do that.
I live with a couple of dogs and cats, but they are my friends, not my possessions. They can move where they want, sleep where they want. I'm even considering the chance of looking after some small sheep for their wool.
You preserve them from wolves attacks and they give you some wool in exchange.
A half Belgian/Argentinian in his forties has bought another small stone house and now is living part of the year in Belgium, earning some money, and the rest here. Restoring his house now but desperate to come here full time. We think in a cooperative way, we share tools, knowledge, food, one car is more than enough and probably we'll share the sheep idea. A painter in his sixties is the only other temporary inhabitant of the valley, but he comes and goes if the weather is too tuff. He doesn't even have a toilet.
Last month in a near hamlet the few inhabitants were all nervous because a rich Californian woman was looking for a hamlet to buy, to start another ecovillage. I think this was too rough for her, at the end.
At least here in Spain and Portugal this is not that strange.
There are a few ecovillages where people live how you want, although is not easy to be allowed in.

[gerontocrat]

Anybody got a guess of what we get in the next 10 years?

Based on your numbers I would say 5-8 cms sea level rise until 2030. Nothing to write home about. (don't misunderstand me, it is a serious long term problem and whole countries will be uinder water in 100-200 years, but not much to create interest in 10 years(

Water is heavy. 8 cm depth of water weighs 80kg per m².
This accelerates coastal erosion from wave action, and there are plenty of places where that will be very unwelcome. There will be some more climate change refugees., human and non-human.

Sunny day flooding, e.g. in Florida will increase in frequency and area. Longterm prolonged immersion in salt water does not do underground infrastructure any favours.

OK, maybe no drama for most of us, but utter misery for some.

[El Cid]

Climate refugees from 8 cm sea level rise? I hardly believe that. The thing is, it is a slow process, noone will notice for a good while.

As an example of real horrors rather look at Jakarta. Some parts are sinking by 10-20 cm PER YEAR(!!!) <yet, no refugees!> and are under sea level already, due to three main factors: 1) most important: people lacking good tapwater are pumping groundwater which sinks the ground making the place ever more floodprone and 2) sewers are not being tended to 3) some extreme rain-events (377 mm on a single day, see below) immediately cause chaos and death:

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/01/01/not-ordinary-rain-worst-rainfall-in-over-decade-causes-massive-floods-in-jakarta.html

More people died there than in the Australia bushfires, and much--much more (400 000!) had to be evacuated. Yet you hear nothing about it in the mainstream media.

This is caused by human stupidity and overpopulation mostly, the extreme rain is just a sidenote.

I brought it up because I think the situation in Jakarta is much worse than an 8 cm sea-rise. Rich countries will be able to cope with a small sea level rise easily. Poor ones will be hit heavily even without such an event due to poor governance