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Klondike Kat

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #150 on: May 09, 2019, 03:48:46 PM »

If your understanding of the year 2011 event is correct, and the event is rare, that is even more reason not to use that as your starting point in calculating trends.

I don't use the 2011 event as part of the 8 mm / year calculation. The 8 mm / year interval of 4.5 years begins after the 2011 event ends.


Previously, you stated that, "According to NASA, from April 2011 to October 2015, SLR rose 36mm."  That is obviously how you calculated your 8mm / year trend.  The latest entry on the NASA site is December, 2018.  If you calculate your trend from December, 2011, SLR is 4.7mm /year, but if you calculate it from December, 2012, SLR is 3.8mm / year.  That is the problem with short-term statistics, selectively choosing end points, can greatly change the data trend.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

I see my analogy was completely lost on you.  No surprise.


oren

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #151 on: May 09, 2019, 04:32:58 PM »
Hi all long time lurker who thought he could finally add some value.
Welcome KiwiGriff. Great first post.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #152 on: May 09, 2019, 04:42:50 PM »
Welcome to the ASIF, Griff (?),
Thanks for the specific Tamino-sourced links.  Many (most?) of his posts are interesting and 'fun' to read - he makes climate-science statistics (appear) accessible.  He is certainly my go-to person on SLR maths.

You are braver than me in outlining predicted 2030 conditions!
Tor

Hi all long time lurker who thought he could finally add some value.

Tamino has done a few posts on sea level.
in this one he gives the present rate as about 4.8mm a year.
 https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/sea-level-acceleration-2/
His  post also discuses a paper were the researchers estimated, and removed, the influence of ENSO/PDO as well as the major volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.
Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era
R. S. Nerem Et al.
https://www.pnas.org/content/115/9/2022
Their result was 4.3 mm/y accelerating at 0.084 mm/y2.

...
 
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #153 on: May 09, 2019, 05:12:42 PM »
Welcome to the ASIF, Griff (?),
Thanks for the specific Tamino-sourced links.  Many (most?) of his posts are interesting and 'fun' to read - he makes climate-science statistics (appear) accessible.  He is certainly my go-to person on SLR maths.

You are braver than me in outlining predicted 2030 conditions!
Tor

Hi all long time lurker who thought he could finally add some value.

Tamino has done a few posts on sea level.
in this one he gives the present rate as about 4.8mm a year.
 https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/sea-level-acceleration-2/
His  post also discuses a paper were the researchers estimated, and removed, the influence of ENSO/PDO as well as the major volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.
Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era
R. S. Nerem Et al.
https://www.pnas.org/content/115/9/2022
Their result was 4.3 mm/y accelerating at 0.084 mm/y2.

...
 

Thanks for sharing KiwiGriff. 4.8mm / year (net) seems more reasonable.

magnamentis

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #154 on: May 09, 2019, 05:23:45 PM »
[quote author=Klondike Kat link=topic=2651.msg198505#msg198505 date=1557
I don't use the 2011 event as part of the 8 mm / year calculation. The 8 mm / year interval of 4.5 years begins after the 2011 event ends.

hi rich, it's very helpful to carefully study some user's attitude over time and then consider this:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2651.msg198451.html#msg198451

this is what helps to not throw pearls to the "void" LOL just to avoid the worse term and keep a level of peace of mind.

some people will generally and always contradict/oppose anything someone writes, no matter what, once they got into that gear, no capability to listen and consider what others have to say and find out what's true, what was said and what was meant, in other words, the truth.

Rich

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #155 on: May 09, 2019, 05:52:59 PM »

If your understanding of the year 2011 event is correct, and the event is rare, that is even more reason not to use that as your starting point in calculating trends.

I don't use the 2011 event as part of the 8 mm / year calculation. The 8 mm / year interval of 4.5 years begins after the 2011 event ends.


Previously, you stated that, "According to NASA, from April 2011 to October 2015, SLR rose 36mm."  That is obviously how you calculated your 8mm / year trend.  The latest entry on the NASA site is December, 2018.  If you calculate your trend from December, 2011, SLR is 4.7mm /year, but if you calculate it from December, 2012, SLR is 3.8mm / year.  That is the problem with short-term statistics, selectively choosing end points, can greatly change the data trend.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

I see my analogy was completely lost on you.  No surprise.

I offered you what seemed to be a good deal for you and you passed. Seems like maybe you agree with me and don't want to admit it.

A good theory will hold up to an experiment. I'm saying that I have enough confidence in my theory to bet the GMSL will go up > 6mm in the next 12 month interval which is ENSO neutral or negative.

Doesn't look like you want any part of that. Since you labeled me a "cherry picker" right out of the gate, I have to needle you back. For what it's worth, I appreciate your being a foil here. We've beaten this little debate to death at this point and reinforced for most of the people reading along a greater understanding of the recent acceleration in GMSL.


Tom_Mazanec

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #156 on: May 09, 2019, 06:00:17 PM »
I recall back in grade school Earth Science I saw a map in the textbook of elevation/subsidence of the North American Continent. I remember the East Coast and Gulf Coast were subsiding, and The North and West were rising.
How long, given this and SLR, do cities like Miami and New Orleans have left?
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Rich

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #157 on: May 09, 2019, 06:13:52 PM »
[quote author=Klondike Kat link=topic=2651.msg198505#msg198505 date=1557
I don't use the 2011 event as part of the 8 mm / year calculation. The 8 mm / year interval of 4.5 years begins after the 2011 event ends.

hi rich, it's very helpful to carefully study some user's attitude over time and then consider this:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2651.msg198451.html#msg198451

this is what helps to not throw pearls to the "void" LOL just to avoid the worse term and keep a level of peace of mind.

some people will generally and always contradict/oppose anything someone writes, no matter what, once they got into that gear, no capability to listen and consider what others have to say and find out what's true, what was said and what was meant, in other words, the truth.

Thanks for your input. I think it's time to let go, but I don't think it was a waste. People who tried following along in the discussion maybe look at the GMSL NASA data a little bit differently now.

If we step back to the reason I jumped in....this is a thread where people are offering guesses about what 2030 will look like. I'm offering SLR as a key indicator of something that might be world changing as it a) progresses and b) we get better at predicting it.

It's an exciting field of science and their is a huge amount of resource being applied to understand it. We're going to learn a LOT in the next decade.


Shared Humanity

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #158 on: May 09, 2019, 06:46:56 PM »
Thanks Rich.
Looking at the chart, adding my unscientific trendline, I can say I definitely see a change at some point in the past few years.
I could see how thermal expansion during the run-up to an El-Nino would be compensated by a slowdown afterwards. But the net trend in the past tended to revert to the previous trendline. This time it didn't.

I see the same thing. There is no doubt that sea level rise is accelerating which should come as no surprise since the contributing processes (melting, ice mass loss, glacier speed up and calving) are all accelerating as well.

Rich

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #159 on: May 09, 2019, 06:48:36 PM »
I recall back in grade school Earth Science I saw a map in the textbook of elevation/subsidence of the North American Continent. I remember the East Coast and Gulf Coast were subsiding, and The North and West were rising.
How long, given this and SLR, do cities like Miami and New Orleans have left?

This is a great question. No simple answer. Miami will also have more rapid SLR than GMSL due to any slowing in the AMOC and both Miami /  NO will have more SLR due to loss of gravitational force at the poles.

A big part of the answer is going to be how long the federal government is going to plug the financial deficits of these coastal regions while they're in the process of going under. Coastal cities are going to go bankrupt while there is still substantial useful life in portions of them.  In an effort to keep things orderly, they are probably going to try and stagger the migration to fit the buildout of the infrastructure that will replace these communities.

There is going to be an agency like FEMA with a very prominent role in running the country. We're going to have WW II type mobilization. We're going to be providing assistance to Mexico as well so that we don't have a real border crisis. Hopefully, we won't have too many wars to fight. The rest of the world will be in a similar boat.

For a city like Miami Beach, I'm going to guess they go bankrupt around 2040, but people are living there until 2060.


gerontocrat

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #160 on: May 09, 2019, 06:56:55 PM »
In one year at least, the Nares Strait will run out of ice to export, as will the Fram.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #161 on: May 09, 2019, 06:58:09 PM »
Paddy said:
 Global oil demand still trending upwards, but slower than before, at about 110m barrels of crude oil a day.

I am not so sure about this. It might be my old PO background, but I doubt shale fracking + oil sands can continue rising to that point, and I understand conventional has already peaked.
Also, I would be pleasantly surprised if the temperature rise held down to a tenth to a fifth of a degree Celsius.

Good point on oil production. Even without a total inability to meet demand, high prices could indeed choke demand in the coming years.

And yes, my assumption of near term temperature rise does assume a fairly gradual acceleration from the recent rate. I hope that I'm right, but I'm not certain.

High prices will put downward pressure on demand but will simultaneously result in more unconventional sources being brought to market as they become profitable while also increasing the amount of available reserves which is calculated based on the oil be recoverable economically.

Shared Humanity

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #162 on: May 09, 2019, 07:02:36 PM »
I recall back in grade school Earth Science I saw a map in the textbook of elevation/subsidence of the North American Continent. I remember the East Coast and Gulf Coast were subsiding, and The North and West were rising.
How long, given this and SLR, do cities like Miami and New Orleans have left?

Much of Broward and Dade Counties will be evacuated by the end of the century. Evacuations of certain areas will begin in earnest by 2050.

Archimid

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #163 on: May 10, 2019, 03:23:39 AM »
Quote
Miami will also have more rapid SLR than GMSL

GMSL is a misleading number. Just like the poles warm faster than the equator, some places will have higher SLR than GMSL and some places will have lower SLR. It is likely there are outliers both ways.

Then there are tides. Then there are stronger hurricanes multiplying SLR and tides.  And then you have all kinds of weather disasters sucking up all the new climate adaptation money.

Our chances are not good. The fact that even our smartest people think this is a problem for 20-30 years from now makes the problem so much worse.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

bluice

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #164 on: May 10, 2019, 11:25:49 PM »
I'm pretty confident that the major things happening before 2030 will be the ones that are directly caused by humans instead of climate related. What makes AGW such a nasty problem is its slow progress and accumulating effects. When things get really bad it will be too late to prevent them, but it's unlikely we will be there during the next decade.

1990's gave us the fall and breakup of the Soviet bloc, unified Europe and the Internet, just to mention a few.
2000's gave us 9/11, American led wars in the Middle East, turboboosted globalisation, the rise of China and the financial crisis.
2010's gave us Arab Spring, resurgent Russia, the POTUS Trump and the mess of brexit.

I'm not even trying to guess what will happen in 2020's but it will be huge and we will not expect it.

Before 2030 SLR will probably increase somewhat, the Arctic may or may not have a year below 1 million km2 at the September minimum, weather will get weirder and weather related disasters bigger and more common. I hope global emissions will peak before 2030 but at the moment it's difficult to believe this will happen.

I think there will be a year before 2030 when weather related poor crops in certain major agricultural regions cause food prices to rise high enough to cause significant political upheavals among the world's poor and unstable countries and their peoples. It could be debated whether Arab Spring already falls into this category, but what I mean is a chain of events that makes such a debate meaningless. Farmers need certain predictability to choose right crops and farming methods and constant change in climate and local weather will at some point make this extremely difficult.
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liefde

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #165 on: May 13, 2019, 12:22:43 AM »
I'm pretty confident that the major things happening before 2030 will be the ones that are directly caused by humans instead of climate related.
Most likely. There are a couple of facts heavily being overlooked;

We've been deleting about a million trees per hour 24/7/365 ever since the early 1970s. Not replenished, not replaced. That's a forcing to be reckoned with. There are currently 300+ billion (yes, nine zeros) fewer trees than there were when I was born. This is a simple fact of being human. As long as humans are not back to 2 billion in total, we're gonna be deleting too many trees to even come close to a sustainable state.
This fact alone kills organic life at a rate we can't fix. I'd not be surprised if most insects will be gone by 2027. The human bred bumblebees will probably prevail a while longer, but the mere fact that others are gone will impact all food-chains on the planet, including that in the ocean.
Plantlife doesn't like too much heat. It stops growing.

Pmt111500

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #166 on: May 13, 2019, 10:45:59 AM »
The energy from photosynthesis indeed goes, crossing specific environmental stresspoints, into repairing damage of plant tissues restricting growth, until the machinery for photosynthesis (if I recall correctly, there are 4 main types, adapted to certain growing zones) itself breaks down and the plant dies.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2019, 11:07:56 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Klondike Kat

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #167 on: May 13, 2019, 03:37:35 PM »
Agreed.  A recent scientific american article stated that deforestation increases atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations more than all the world's cars and trucks combined.  Considering that roughly half of the [pre-human] forested acreage has been cut down, any effort to stem industrial carbon dioxide output may not ever reach zero.  There simply are not enough trees remained to compensate.


https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/deforestation-and-global-warming/

RikW

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #168 on: May 13, 2019, 04:02:23 PM »
well, 'just' plant more trees;

if every 'worker' in the usa/ europe plants 1 tree per day we have reforested the world in 2 years.

Just imagine every adult you know planting a tree daily for 2 years in a row...

Archimid

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #169 on: May 13, 2019, 04:21:56 PM »
What my limited experience with trees tells me is that it's not just a matter of planting trees. The right circumstances must exist for years before they gain resilience. Even after they do gain resilience changes in climate and disease can get them.

To be clear, I'm not saying that we shouldn't plant trees because they must be tended for years . I'm saying we must systematically plant and tend them.

Besides the CO2 storing capabilities they can lower local temperature significantly. (They are also beautiful and attract birds but that is OT)
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El Cid

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #170 on: May 13, 2019, 06:38:20 PM »
What my limited experience with trees tells me is that it's not just a matter of planting trees. The right circumstances must exist for years before they gain resilience. Even after they do gain resilience changes in climate and disease can get them.

I do have multiyear experience in planting forests.

Actually, not much tending is needed. We planted many hectares of oak (mixed with some othe species for diversity), which is pretty much the slowest growing tree in the temperate zone (except for yew, never plant yew :) . Anyway we planted them from acorns, which is the cheapest solution. You need to cut the weeds 2x per year for 4-5 years, after that there is absoultely nothing to do for 100 years. Total cost: about 2000 euros per hectare, ie. 200 000 euros per sq km.Planting and (tending for 4-5 yrs) 1 000 000 sq km, a huge number, would cost theoretically 200 billion EUR, which is 1% of Europe's GDP. The EU is 4.4 million sq kms. So it would cost about 1% of GDP to reforest 20+% of its area. That is nothing. It is extremely cheap.

oren

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #171 on: May 13, 2019, 07:48:45 PM »
While I am all for reforestation, and would love to take the time and plant trees every day, the main issue that pops to mind is land. Where would I plant so many trees? Between me and my wife, nearly 1500 trees over the next two years? Around here you can barely find space to plant one tree, except in the desert. Too many people, too little left for all else.

El Cid

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #172 on: May 13, 2019, 09:35:11 PM »
"Around here you can barely find space to plant one tree, except in the desert."

You probably all know about the biotic pump theory. Basically it postulates that by greening (reforesting) the desert you can change the climate (and your country has also plenty of experience in desalination and dripline irrigation). Worth a try. You might truly get back the Promised Land flowing with milk and honey  :)

liefde

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #173 on: May 14, 2019, 10:11:19 PM »
well, 'just' plant more trees;

if every 'worker' in the usa/ europe plants 1 tree per day we have reforested the world in 2 years.
You'll have a lot of trees younger than 2 years. Pretty useless as far as CO2 sequestration goes. And who's going to 'create' the seeds and plants for that effort out of thin air? Where do you think those young shoots come from?
Besides, the deleting of about a million per day will only continue and grow in number (because those planted trees take up room intended for crops or housing, or what have you, and nobody has room to plant those trees anyway. If every person would need to plant 1 tree per day, where do you want to put them?
Seriously, grow a clue.

Klondike Kat

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #174 on: May 14, 2019, 10:22:27 PM »
well, 'just' plant more trees;

if every 'worker' in the usa/ europe plants 1 tree per day we have reforested the world in 2 years.
You'll have a lot of trees younger than 2 years. Pretty useless as far as CO2 sequestration goes. And who's going to 'create' the seeds and plants for that effort out of thin air? Where do you think those young shoots come from?
Besides, the deleting of about a million per day will only continue and grow in number (because those planted trees take up room intended for crops or housing, or what have you, and nobody has room to plant those trees anyway. If every person would need to plant 1 tree per day, where do you want to put them?
Seriously, grow a clue.

He was putting it in perspective!  Even by your account, that would result in a net increase.  The saplings would only increase their sequestration ability.  Hardly useless.  Your insulting post is not very helpful,

sidd

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #175 on: May 14, 2019, 11:22:05 PM »
I have planted thousands of trees in my life. You have to be careful, consider the tree, the land and the climate to come. I am glad to say that the majority are doing well, and i try to go visit them as often as I may.

I must say i have removed hundreds of invasive trees as well ...

sidd

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #176 on: May 14, 2019, 11:22:40 PM »
You need to cut the weeds 2x per year for 4-5 years, after that there is absoultely nothing to do for 100 years.

Thanks for your experience. That experience applies to an unchanging temperate climate. In warmer, wetter places 6 months without weeding is likely too long for trees that are not hardy.

 Anywhere the climate is changing (everywhere), things like heatwaves can dry the soil and seriously hurt young trees. Weird weather might bring disease.

However, while the climate conditions remain favorable, trees require little maintenance.
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Pmt111500

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #177 on: May 15, 2019, 07:35:04 AM »
As we're heading towards warmer climates, gardeners might do bemeficial work for ecosystems by transporting southerly native plants. I mean, by routine, I have to either cut down or move several elm and maple saplings every other year. If there was a northerly location free for planting these I might well do a trip to let them live.organizing such a system that would allow easy migration of plants by human activity is though a huge undertaking. Also the warmer northerly plots are usually taken by local gardeners. I have a friend who has one of the Finland's northernmost tree-size oaks growing beside the southern wall of their house in Rovaniemi and this sort of thing should imho be commonplace. It's not of course the northernmost in the world, the Norwegian coastal winters allow oak to grow there very far north.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2019, 07:43:55 AM by Pmt111500 »
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El Cid

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #178 on: May 15, 2019, 08:00:39 AM »
You need to cut the weeds 2x per year for 4-5 years, after that there is absoultely nothing to do for 100 years.

Thanks for your experience. That experience applies to an unchanging temperate climate. In warmer, wetter places 6 months without weeding is likely too long for trees that are not hardy.

 Anywhere the climate is changing (everywhere), things like heatwaves can dry the soil and seriously hurt young trees. Weird weather might bring disease.


There's truth in what you say. However, let's not forget, that trees are "programmed" to grow through weeds and bushes (and drought and torrential rains, etc.). In nature, noone cuts weeds, yet if you leave a field alone for 30-50 yrs, I guarantee you that there will be a forest by the end of that. (I "lost" some good agricultural land to that much quicker than that!)

The only question is - and this relates to what Pmt says - what to plant? We need to plant trees that are already marginally hardy and will have the right environment in the next 20-100 yrs. I have doubts about the models getting the precipitation/temperature pattern right, so the solution is probably planting a mix, and let the trees fight it out.

As for what liefde said "And who's going to 'create' the seeds and plants for that effort out of thin air?", as I said we planted (mixed)oak forests from seed (acorn). We literally planted hundreds of thousands of acorns, and I can guarantee you that there is enough seed to plant the whole planet with trees.

sidd

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #179 on: May 15, 2019, 09:22:23 AM »
Re: gardeners might do bemeficial work for ecosystems by transporting southerly native plants

I know of DNR (Department of Natural Resources) and other forestry officials already doing that in NE USA. I imagine that is being done elsewhere, but i will have to talk to people out west.

sidd

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #180 on: May 15, 2019, 01:25:02 PM »

There's truth in what you say. However, let's not forget, that trees are "programmed" to grow through weeds and bushes (and drought and torrential rains, etc.).


There are hardy trees and there are tender trees. Both have limits of growth related to temperature, humidity and sunlight. Trees die all the time in nature. You only get to see the ones that survive.

Quote
In nature, noone cuts weeds, yet if you leave a field alone for 30-50 yrs, I guarantee you that there will be a forest by the end of that. (I "lost" some good agricultural land to that much quicker than that!)

Yes but the trees that grow are the species that can survive and thrive on the climate of the tree, not necesarilly a pre-selected tree.  If the wrong trees grows, then fires, disease or drought remove the wrong trees and the right trees for the environment survive.

Quote
The only question is - and this relates to what Pmt says - what to plant?

I'm pretty sure that we can agree that there is not one solution to the what to planet problem but many. Local architecture, local climate and micro-climate must be considered before choosing the right tree for the right location. Choosing the right tree for the right location shouldn't be a problem at all. The problem happens when the climate changes.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #181 on: June 15, 2019, 08:28:21 PM »
Here is a documentary on the world of 2060, just a generation later:
http://www.shortcommons.com/2019/06/documentary-can-earth-still-be-saved.html
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 03:16:05 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #182 on: August 17, 2019, 09:01:01 PM »
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/no-climate-change-will-not-end-the-world-in-12-years/?amp
Earth isn't ending in 12 years. It didn't end at Y2K or when the Mayan calendar predicted the collapse of civilization in 2012. Earth, as a whole, will be okay—for at least another few billion years. What's less settled is how humans and the rest of biodiversity on the planet will fare in the decades and centuries to come. That's up to us and I hope we work to highlight hope over Armageddon.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

nanning

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #183 on: August 18, 2019, 05:37:35 AM »
"Earth isn't ending in 12 years. It didn't end at Y2K or when the Mayan calendar predicted the collapse of civilization in 2012"

That's reassuring, pfew  ::)
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly"

kassy

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #184 on: August 18, 2019, 05:29:53 PM »
That quote from the blog was not the most helpful (the mayan thing always annoys me because of the hollywood filter. It was the end of their grand age number 5 or so so it deals with more interesting concepts then a hollywood disaster movie but YMMV).


(a friend of hers is worried because of)
Time's latest cover story, entitled "Our Sinking Planet."
...
I am concerned too, but it's different. There's no question that our climate reality is dire, but having worked at the intersection of science and climate challenges for decades, the new barrage of what I've come to call doomsday porn is perplexing.


Haven´t read the Time piece but they are not that prone to doomsday porn. The author talks about all kinds of technological and science progress. These things will help but one of the big current problems is the lack of pace on the international policy level. The politicians are still doing much kicking the can down the road while paying lip service to vague commitments (or much worse).

This should be protested much more and that is one thing she does not even mention.

Science goes only so far. Solutions only work if you implement them. Etc.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.