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For how long will 'Very Big Chunk' stall the sea ice export.

Not!
1-3 days
4-7 days
Until summer

Author Topic: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll  (Read 4587 times)

b_lumenkraft

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The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« on: May 01, 2019, 04:12:58 PM »
b_l likes to bet on that kind of event ;)

EDIT:

I just closed the poll and 'Not!' was the winning vote on this one.

The VBC firstly broke up in 3 and then in multiple pieces and caused no blockage at all.

« Last Edit: May 14, 2019, 09:42:56 AM by b_lumenkraft »

oren

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2019, 04:17:17 PM »
Not! Maybe up to one day which is negligible IMHO.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2019, 04:28:30 PM »
I voted - not at all

Looks like a load of junk stuck together by inertia.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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be cause

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2019, 04:48:55 PM »
nearly 4000sq km .. it should take a couple of days just to squeeze itself through .. though I say not at all..  ..  it's passage would amount to 5% of Nare's entire export in the ever-flowing year that was 2007 .
even taking a couple of weeks to pass would mean accelerating export .. b.c.
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2019, 07:09:39 PM »
Breaks down immediately after hitting the shores, thus not, well 8 - 20 hours?
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2019, 07:44:01 PM »
Breaks down immediately after hitting the shores, thus not, well 8 - 20 hours?

Everything under 23:59 hours counts as 'Not!'. :)

BTW, i voted '1-3 days' because i think it's more than 24 hours.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2019, 08:06:40 PM »
There will be quibbling (so I'll start it now  :o):  I claimed a previous 'potential blocker' didn't actually block anything, it merely slowed things down for a day or so, as half of it appears to have started crumbling upon setting up the blockage.  Some seem to claim it blocked the channel for a day or so. 

To achieve blockage, will 'day apart' images need to show the Very Big Chunk - "VBC"  (or remaining piece of it) - unmoved and 'fully' intact on successive images?  B_, it is your call.

I think I've seen this happen, by the way: a single-floe blockage in nares Strait that lasted a day or two before collapsing.


___
"VBC" - not to be confused with the Vienna Boys Choir, etc.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2019, 08:23:40 PM »
To achieve blockage, will 'day apart' images need to show the Very Big Chunk - "VBC"  (or remaining piece of it) - unmoved and 'fully' intact on successive images?  B_, it is your call.

On the The Rammb Slider site i can track it ~ hourly during most part of a day. If it breaks during the gap, i'll just estimate it.

And yes, the blockage you linked to, Tor, was longer than 24h. :)

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2019, 08:59:17 PM »
We should not start a new thread to discuss a single slab of ice, no matter how big, entering the Nares.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2019, 09:03:34 PM »
We should not start a new thread to discuss a single slab of ice, no matter how big, entering the Nares.

Can one do a new poll in an old thread?

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2019, 09:15:33 PM »
ok. Voted without discussion ;)

Darvince

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2019, 12:57:53 PM »
We should not start a new thread to discuss a single slab of ice, no matter how big, entering the Nares.

Can one do a new poll in an old thread?
The thread owner (as well as mods/admins) are the only ones with the ability to change the poll in an already existing thread.

be cause

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2019, 01:33:27 PM »
lets not beat ourselves up .. it is a big block .. if it became a big blocker it would possibly have season-long effects  As a community of 1500 with 0ver 2000 topics it is obvious that opening new topics is for anyone to do at any time on any suitable topic .. b.c. ..
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2019, 03:33:19 PM »
I also 'love' polls like this that get us to look closely (as a community) at floe behavior.  I imagine 30 or 50 posts about a single floe in the Nares Strait thread would be tedious to someone not interested in this minutia.  Besides, there are links in each thread pointing to the other, so the 'interested person' won't miss what they don't want to miss.

And besides, watching a horse race can be plain fun if you are not overly invested in a particular outcome.  A 'floe' horse race (usually) has no particular consequences for The Big Picture, and so lets us laugh a little - something that is surely needed, given the grave Big Picture.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2019, 08:31:53 PM »
The white dot on ascat image day2018260 is an attempt to trace vbc back to the begiinning of the freezing season. (please check)
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg197396.html#msg197396
That area was far enough north to escape export into the CAA in 2017-18 (see 2010-feb 2019 to check
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg188990.html#msg188990 )

Tidal range is low at the moment, light winds. Maybe vbc has a chance to hold together for a few days. Todays lift off from the eastern side of the Lincoln sea doesn't bode well though.
https://go.nasa.gov/2DLPZRG

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2019, 08:06:31 AM »
VBC movement yesterday (03.05.) between ~07:00h and ~20:00h UTC.

I think it will sweep against Ellesmere with its right shoulder. Likely the head (nose) will crack off? Another poll on how it will crack? ;D

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2019, 09:29:41 AM »
Hopefully Tor will make an animation but the rear doesn't look good even before it hits land. Could be my interpretation of the image though. I don't look at sentinel images so often. Worldview too cloudy for viirs. Polarview concentrating elsewhere.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2019, 12:33:20 PM »
In Longwave IR window the rear also looks pretty scrambled.

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2019, 01:16:48 PM »
maybe vbc is over 4yrs old... parts of it
OT edit:surprised there's no 1-2yr in the chukchi
« Last Edit: May 04, 2019, 01:24:10 PM by uniquorn »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2019, 07:48:10 PM »
Looks like VBC just got way smaller.

The clouds are thinning. Can't wait for a clear picture.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #20 on: May 04, 2019, 08:05:14 PM »
DMI Sentinel image from today:  VBC, apparently, is an amoeba, and has split in two!  Plenty of size for either to get stuck, but do they have the will?  [Sorry to those who are bothered by the anthropomorhizing of unsuspecting bits of inorganic ice.]
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uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #21 on: May 04, 2019, 08:32:54 PM »
They do say 'the bigger the cracks the thicker the ice'
added worldview terra modis may3-4. Impact imminent for amoeba1. Another fracture northeast side.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2019, 09:56:49 PM by uniquorn »

magnamentis

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #22 on: May 04, 2019, 11:16:55 PM »
DMI Sentinel image from today:  VBC, apparently, is an amoeba, and has split in two!  Plenty of size for either to get stuck, but do they have the will?  [Sorry to those who are bothered by the anthropomorhizing of unsuspecting bits of inorganic ice.]

kind of spaghettification getting closer to the black holes event horizon ;)
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2019, 05:40:56 PM »
Impact imminent.

As noted in the Nares Strait thread, VBC is already cracking due to current forces.

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2019, 06:17:45 PM »
vbc update. Triangle holding for now.
edit: contact rather than impact so far
« Last Edit: May 05, 2019, 07:32:22 PM by uniquorn »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #25 on: May 06, 2019, 10:19:30 AM »
Hard to spot through the clouds, but it looks like Amoeba1 split in 2 parts.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #26 on: May 06, 2019, 03:10:20 PM »
Make that 3 parts. And the behind is also already cracking.

The front piece of Amoeba1 sitting crossways.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #27 on: May 06, 2019, 06:56:20 PM »
DMI images from May 4 to 6 in a GIF. 
(I removed a post where I thought I was looking at the VBC's nose past Petermann Fjord.  It is not there yet...)
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Stephan

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #28 on: May 06, 2019, 07:10:10 PM »
Looks like VBC has died by fragmentation.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #29 on: May 06, 2019, 07:17:39 PM »
"I said it was only inertia that was keeping it together", he said, smugly.

To just collapse into bits from being caught in the progressively faster flowing current down the plughole is not behaviour one would expect from solid multi-year ice ?
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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #30 on: May 06, 2019, 07:25:43 PM »
Well, to be fair, it doesn't look that solid on the ice age map either. That's the end of my optimistic voting for this year.

oren

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #31 on: May 06, 2019, 07:28:04 PM »
The largest ice floe in the Lincoln Sea, probably 3 or 4 years old MYI, turns out to be a pile of junk, and nobody is even surprised. State of the Arctic in a nutshell.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #32 on: May 06, 2019, 07:29:20 PM »
Hey, the nose piece of the original VBC (is that Amoeba 1a?) is still (as of DMI image - but I don't have time-stamp) wide enough to get stuck, on the off chance it has strength!  (Of course, I doubt it has strength.)  We have to watch it past Hans Island to make sure.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #33 on: May 06, 2019, 07:30:48 PM »
Not holding my breath. No sign of refreeze either...  worldview aqua modis may5-6
edit: Tor, I think it's amoeba 1b ;)
« Last Edit: May 06, 2019, 07:40:46 PM by uniquorn »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #34 on: May 06, 2019, 07:40:58 PM »
Temperatures the whole week are not going below -10˚C  according to the forecast. End of the week we see temperatures closer to zero. So no refreeze in sight. But calm winds could mean less of a highway situation than recently.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #35 on: May 06, 2019, 07:41:57 PM »
"I said it was only inertia that was keeping it together", he said, smugly.

To just collapse into bits from being caught in the progressively faster flowing current down the plughole is not behaviour one would expect from solid multi-year ice ?

It's amazing that that 4m thick MYI hardened by compression over years and year could break up so easily.

I voted for 0 days....I guess one of the small fragments still might block the channel?

Stephan

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #36 on: May 06, 2019, 07:48:15 PM »
"I said it was only inertia that was keeping it together", he said, smugly.

To just collapse into bits from being caught in the progressively faster flowing current down the plughole is not behaviour one would expect from solid multi-year ice ?
So finally and luckily we have this extra thread about a formerly very big chunk of ice, some of us have criticized this. But gerontocrat's comment is very wise and could start a discussion about the quality of the ice itself. It is much harder to determine than counting pixels for area or extent calculation. And this big piece of ice was easily divided into dozens of smaller floes without a big storm, just by different current velocities and directions. This should not have happened for a big thick solid piece of MY ice!

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #37 on: May 06, 2019, 07:57:21 PM »
Not its first breakage, for sure, but VBC did 'side swipe' Ellesmere Island!  Given the relative hardness of silicate rock to ice (a monomineralic rock), I'd expect the ice to shatter.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #38 on: May 06, 2019, 07:57:29 PM »
I guess one of the small fragments still might block the channel?

This was my thought exactly that made me vote '1-3'.

Next hours will be exciting.

Iain

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #39 on: May 06, 2019, 11:09:57 PM »
From what I've seen so far, very unlikely that the remaining FBCs (Fairly big.....: ) will block the channel.

"If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants." Isaac Newton

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #40 on: May 07, 2019, 07:57:31 AM »
Amoeba1a (former VBC member) has turned a little and has entered the Nares Strait.


b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #41 on: May 07, 2019, 11:37:56 AM »
Status:

Amoeba1a broke in two
Amoeba1c went all mushy
The Behind is now multiple small pieces

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #42 on: May 07, 2019, 01:06:26 PM »
Fairly Big Chunk has cracked too. Should be small enough to not cause any blockage.

Another tidal wave upcoming which will likely cause even more cracking.

The chances of a blockage due to the (what has been the) VBC is now so minimal we might as well call anyone who voted 'Not!' a winner. Congratulations ladies and gentlemen. You all give yourselves a treat today.  ;)

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #43 on: May 07, 2019, 03:02:28 PM »
For the record, the whole story as a GIF.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #44 on: May 07, 2019, 04:06:38 PM »
Wow!  The rear end of VBC shattered when it hit Ellesmere Island, per B_'s GIF (not yet on the DMI channel).
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #45 on: May 07, 2019, 06:22:53 PM »
I did not vote and am on record that this thread should not have been created. Sorry guys, I was just cranky >:( but it is clear you guys are having fun here.  8)

I did have something to say about VBC on the Nares thread a couple of days ago.

My point is that, if simply entering a slightly faster current could cleave the VBC in half, it suggests the structural integrity of the entire VBC is suspect. That sucker is going to splinter as it encounters more destructive forces in the strait.

I don't expect to get credit for a vote but the fact this VBC (more appropriately named lots of little pieces knitted together by FYI) splintered and will continue to do so should not be surprising.

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #46 on: May 07, 2019, 06:31:50 PM »
No worries SH, all good. :)

You effectively voted 'Not!' (even though your vote came in via the wrong thread and rather late) so you can feel like a winner.

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #47 on: May 07, 2019, 07:42:29 PM »
A zoom on the Nares Strait using AMSR2 data 2013-2019.
https://twitter.com/seaice_de/status/1125354599282610177
Thanks seaice.de. I spent a long time looking at those animations. For those who didn't click on the link here is the sentinel ani.

be cause

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #48 on: May 07, 2019, 09:04:07 PM »
scale may be hidden by GIF but comparing with Worldview that looks like more than 10,000 sq km of the least worst ice down a very effective plughole in the last month .. b.c.
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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #49 on: May 10, 2019, 11:20:28 AM »
Final fling from amoeba1b. Worldview viirsbt15, may9-10 and sentinel playgound
hmc visible here https://go.nasa.gov/2JBEAHM