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For how long will 'Very Big Chunk' stall the sea ice export.

Not!
1-3 days
4-7 days
Until summer

Author Topic: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll  (Read 4589 times)

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #50 on: May 10, 2019, 07:11:31 PM »
contact. roll or shatter or block?

magnamentis

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #51 on: May 10, 2019, 07:21:53 PM »
contact. roll or shatter or block?

roll and block right a few kilometers later

if those sides aline with the banks mostly parallelly it could even hold a bit ;)

game on
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #52 on: May 10, 2019, 07:28:21 PM »
contact. roll or shatter or block?
The front snaps in three pieces and the rest squeezes through. Game on.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #53 on: May 10, 2019, 07:31:10 PM »
contact. roll or shatter or block?

I think it will get cracked by either a tidal wave or by shattering against the rock or both.

oren

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #54 on: May 10, 2019, 07:33:52 PM »
Shatter.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #55 on: May 10, 2019, 07:53:49 PM »
I voted 'shatter' [edit: at some point - maybe when arriving at Hans Island].  [I mean: I voted "Not!" which suggests I expect 'shatter'.]
Also, I presume the floe at Hans Island is part of the original VBC, but it would only block half of Nares Strait at best, and I don't expect it to do even that.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2019, 08:11:34 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #56 on: May 10, 2019, 08:03:47 PM »
 aqua modis, terra modis and viirs today. Perhaps I should have added rock to the options.
we could do with a slider
edit: replaced gif to make the order clearer (based on when the images become available on worldview. I'm not aware of a time stamp on them) Either this is a very basic tide detector or they are in the wrong order.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2019, 08:16:29 PM by uniquorn »

magnamentis

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #57 on: May 10, 2019, 08:33:55 PM »
contact. roll or shatter or block?

I think it will get cracked by either a tidal wave or by shattering against the rock or both.

sure it will shatter but i thought the question was how quickly ;)

just kidding, i understand you well, you mean "immediately" i assume.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #58 on: May 10, 2019, 08:44:19 PM »
contact. roll or shatter or block?

I think it will get cracked by either a tidal wave or by shattering against the rock or both.

sure it will shatter but i thought the question was how quickly ;)

just kidding, i understand you well, you mean "immediately" i assume.

At the moment it is going backwards due to a tidal movement. It's turning slightly. Could be it's entering the strait and goes down a little before, but yes, shattering imminent. ;)

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #59 on: May 10, 2019, 08:53:56 PM »
Well that's a scrape on each side without shattering. So it passes the immediate test.  Maybe it's bone fide 4yr ice.
Thanks for the slider.

HapHazard

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #60 on: May 10, 2019, 08:56:13 PM »
I will go with "Roll then Shatter." for 200, Alex.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #61 on: May 10, 2019, 09:04:00 PM »
Well that's a scrape on each side without shattering. So it passes the immediate test.  Maybe it's bone fide 4yr ice.

... a unicorn one might say ...

Quote
Thanks for the slider.

Most welcome sir! :)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #62 on: May 10, 2019, 09:29:14 PM »
Quote
Maybe it's bone fide 4yr ice
The last frame of the GIF suggests to me "Amoeba1b" is made up of two major halves with thinner ice between.  The DMI Sentinel image (below) suggests the top half is made of 3 or 4 pieces by itself, however, the dark 'veins' don't always represent younger ice, as best I can tell, just often.  And sometimes the 'glue' appears to be stronger than the MYI.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #64 on: May 10, 2019, 11:22:40 PM »
Quote
Maybe it's bone fide 4yr ice
The last frame of the GIF suggests to me "Amoeba1b" is made up of two major halves with thinner ice between.  The DMI Sentinel image (below) suggests the top half is made of 3 or 4 pieces by itself, however, the dark 'veins' don't always represent younger ice, as best I can tell, just often.  And sometimes the 'glue' appears to be stronger than the MYI.

IMHO, that floe is MYI glued together by 1st year ice. I fully expect it to shatter from the forces it will encounter in the Nares.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #65 on: May 11, 2019, 05:26:19 AM »
My repeated use of the word "suggest" was intended to convey my lack of expertise in interpreting Sentinel and other images of ice.  I was trained to interpret aerial photographs for geology in the U.S. Southwest, and I did spend many hours looking at early Landsat images.  Only some of what I learned is transferable...
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #66 on: May 11, 2019, 07:48:33 AM »
Likely, might, should, could, suggest... this business is guesswork, isn't it Tor? ;)

In other news, we are in without shattering!

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #67 on: May 11, 2019, 11:21:43 AM »
It has split in two now (06:57h UTC).

Mind the Nares Straits event horizon.

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #68 on: May 11, 2019, 01:19:19 PM »
The stats don't look too bad so far but this does not look good.
added link  https://go.nasa.gov/2E1pms5
« Last Edit: May 11, 2019, 01:31:44 PM by uniquorn »

magnamentis

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #69 on: May 11, 2019, 05:50:39 PM »
It has split in two now (06:57h UTC).

Mind the Nares Straits event horizon.

while i expected some even more pronounced "spaghettification" to stay with the "black hole" terms, are we in agreement that splitting in two is not "shattered" ?

further that "seem" has been visible long before this latest image and it looks so much regular that i'm not so sure wheter it really has split or whether the split is simply more pronounced du to image contrast/conditions.

game not over yet i'd say, a blockage for some time is still possible.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #70 on: May 11, 2019, 06:09:10 PM »
It has split in two now (06:57h UTC).

Mind the Nares Straits event horizon.

while i expected some even more pronounced "spaghettification" to stay with the "black hole" terms, are we in agreement that splitting in two is not "shattered" ?

further that "seem" has been visible long before this latest image and it looks so much regular that i'm not so sure wheter it really has split or whether the split is simply more pronounced du to image contrast/conditions.

game not over yet i'd say, a blockage for some time is still possible.

I don't know exactly how it happened. The crack might be caused by a bump against the rock or by spaghettification. Perhaps Sentinel tells us more of the story tomorrow. I wouldn't describe the later as shattering but i'm not even a native speaker, so what do i know? ;)

IMHO blocking is very unlikely at this point.

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #71 on: May 11, 2019, 07:20:02 PM »
I really want this plucky floe to save the Lincoln sea single handedly. It's only a flesh wound ;)
replaced image with today's aqua, terra, viirs(suomi/npp)
This method does appear to show tidal movement. By the way, does this rule out 'not!' or does it have to stay put for 24hrs ?
edit: added this morning's image to the animation. It's a shame it's so warm there today.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2019, 07:53:59 PM by uniquorn »

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #72 on: May 11, 2019, 07:37:48 PM »
Latest Sentinel image. I have never seen the Lincoln look like this:

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #73 on: May 11, 2019, 08:00:17 PM »
This method does appear to show tidal movement.

Yupp, see GIF. Click it!
Funny how the wave coming from the south (or something) is causing gyres in the strait right now. Have never seen it that pronounced.

Quote
By the way, does this rule out 'not!' or does it have to stay put for 24hrs ?

Has to stay put for at least 24h. Otherwise, it's 1-3 Days.

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #74 on: May 11, 2019, 09:19:12 PM »
There are 3 blockages in a row there. Perhaps that amplifies the movement. Tide is only .5m at Alert, though it might be more pronounced in the strait. 

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #75 on: May 11, 2019, 09:39:51 PM »
Latest Sentinel image. I have never seen the Lincoln look like this:
AH, how long have you been looking? (Longer than 3 years?)
Maybe I'm jaded, but I presume I've seen the Lincoln Sea 'totally' chopped up like this.  Maybe only much later in the melting season (as someone suggested), which would be bad enough (for the health of an icy Arctic) then.
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Reallybigbunny

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #76 on: May 11, 2019, 10:13:04 PM »
Looking back through the years on Worldview, the ice in the Lincoln Sea on May 11th 2019 looks far more broken up than any other year.

oren

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #77 on: May 11, 2019, 11:12:22 PM »
The only other year that would be a good candidate for Lincoln messiness by this time of year would be 2007, when no arches formed at all. Not sure where to find images so far back in time.

johnm33

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #78 on: May 11, 2019, 11:14:04 PM »
I saw a documentry years ago where when there was thick ice the locals would cut a hole and go foraging along the coast, beneath the fast ice, I imagine the tides flow in and out of the fjords here leaving the surface ice intact. That'd be my guess for what's going on and driving the eddies in these stunning animations.
 Votings still open! as a not I might want some discount.

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #79 on: May 11, 2019, 11:23:16 PM »
Worldview goes back to 2000.
Plucky needs more votes to stay in one piece :)

Sam

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #80 on: May 12, 2019, 12:14:50 AM »
Latest Sentinel image. I have never seen the Lincoln look like this:
AH, how long have you been looking? (Longer than 3 years?)
Maybe I'm jaded, but I presume I've seen the Lincoln Sea 'totally' chopped up like this.  Maybe only much later in the melting season (as someone suggested), which would be bad enough (for the health of an icy Arctic) then.

AH and Tor,

This year is quite unusual and far ahead of others. In 20 years of watching the ice conditions, this is both horrible and not unexpected. I have been watching the ice closely ever since the Terra and Aqua satellites first came on line, and sporadically before that with the earlier imagery. In those first years of this new age, your had to go to the NASA website for Terra and Aqua and wander through the individual photo images in various sizes and resolutions and bands. It is so much easier now to just look at the mosaic on EOSDIS, pick your layers, run little moves, scan around, rotate and ...

I remember so clearly watching in horror when the multiyear ice failed north of Ellesmere for the first time in recorded history and drained an ephemeral lake that contained a unique ecosystem that was estimated to be over 3,000 years old.

Now it is routine to see the ice break up in the Lincoln sea, though nothing like what we are seeing this year.

More startling is the extreme shattering of the formerly multiyear ice to the west of the Lincoln sea along the north coast of Ellesmere. The long wide rip in the ice all the way to the other end of the northwest passage has happened before (in recent years). But I do not recall the ice ever shattering along the arctic side of that open lede like it is this year.

It has been happening since before 2000, and was especially severe in 2004, 2005, and 2008, then in the past few years. Still, the breakup this year is unprecedented, just as the breakup of the Lincoln Sea is.

There is simply no integrity at all left to what used to be land fast multiyear ice. The only exceptions might be in some of the channels between the islands that make up Ellesmere.

New this year is the connection between the shattered ice moving north of Greenland and exiting into the Atlantic with the shattered ice in the Lincoln Sea exiting to the south.

I would not be surprised at all this year or in the next few to see a complete breakup of the former multi-year ice all the way from the Atlantic to the Beaufort Sea and a hundred miles off shore of Ellesmere, with shattered ice being chewed up and spit out into the Atlantic, out through the Lincoln Sea and into the Beaufort simultaneously. We already see that happening in segments. And the Lincoln Sea breakup is now fully connect to the breakup north of Greenland. The rip along Ellesmere has nearly completed the free flowing connection of shattered ice moving to the Beaufort.

It used to be that the currents in the Lincoln Sea oscillated strongly across the "ice bridge" between flowing into and out of the arctic through the Lincoln Sea. Now it seems to be almost uniformly out of the Lincoln Sea to the south, with the ice being thin enough to be shattered on contact with the basalt.

As the old ice is rapidly lost, the average thickness of the ice is falling quickly, and the end of the ice rapidly approaches.

Sam

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #81 on: May 12, 2019, 04:42:44 AM »
Thanks, Sam.  It dawned on me while I read your piece (and Oren's) that with Nares Strait closed most years between February (+/-) and June, early May would be a time for minimal cracks in and around the Lincoln Sea.
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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #82 on: May 12, 2019, 06:26:26 AM »
I think Sam said it very well. I've been watching since 2009 or so and I've never seen anything like this. There have been cases where cracks start to spread but they've been self limiting in previous years, and they happen much later in the season. This year they seem to be spreading all over the place very early. A very large amount of ice looks poised to disappear down the Nares this year.

Sam

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #83 on: May 12, 2019, 07:45:24 AM »
Twenty years ago, if I heard someone say that Beaufort, Nares and Fram we’re taking over, I would have thought that it was some rock group, or maybe some alternative indie group. And if I had heard something about Lincoln Sea, I would be even more convinced of that.

I would never have imagined that in twenty years it would be referencing the beginning of the end of the arctic ice. ”Arctic Ice”  - surely that must be a new heavy metal band, right? I am pretty sure Nares is the lead singer..... Fram’s gotta be lead guitar. Beaufort is on base.

Sam

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #84 on: May 12, 2019, 11:40:29 AM »
and Ellesmere is the management company ;)

Too cloudy to see how plucky amoeba1bb is doing https://go.nasa.gov/2E6wRhv

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #85 on: May 12, 2019, 11:48:36 AM »
You can make it out in the slider Day/Night band.

12.05. 04:57h UTC

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #86 on: May 12, 2019, 11:54:28 AM »
Is that 24hrs then? maybe only 20.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #87 on: May 12, 2019, 12:01:41 PM »
No, it moved all the time for how i can tell.

Yesterdays Sentinel shot just came in.

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #88 on: May 12, 2019, 01:09:24 PM »
I won't quibble, but there is a queue building up :) Could be seen as a 'stall' https://www.polarview.aq/arctic

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #89 on: May 12, 2019, 03:03:30 PM »
there is a queue building up :) Could be seen as a 'stall'

Any blockage is a stall but not any stall is a blockage. :P

Uniquorn, you voted 'Not!' iirc. You are in the winning team, right?

11.05. 14:34h to 12.05. 10:02h UTC
(Tidal wave just coming in)

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #90 on: May 12, 2019, 03:14:39 PM »
That's that then. Lincoln sea is toast.
No, I was hugely optimistic with 4-7days. The ice wasn't listening.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #91 on: May 12, 2019, 03:25:36 PM »
Ah, i see why you are arguing in favour of a blockage. Makes sense now. :)

I admire your optimism, sir.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #92 on: May 12, 2019, 03:28:56 PM »
... are we in agreement that splitting in two is not "shattered" ?

Look at the GIF above Magnamentis. I would say now it shattered, do you agree?

Iain

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #93 on: May 12, 2019, 09:01:09 PM »
Confirmed on Worldview. Shattered. I'm not optimistic Nares will block until winter.
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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #94 on: May 12, 2019, 09:36:44 PM »
All hell breaks loose above Greenland, and you guys are only interested in bits and pieces in Nares Strait?
Have a ice day!

gerontocrat

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #95 on: May 12, 2019, 09:38:36 PM »
And from
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kennedy.uk.php

image http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kennedy/20190512s01b.ASAR.jpg

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gerontocrat

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #96 on: May 12, 2019, 09:39:48 PM »
All hell breaks loose above Greenland, and you guys are only interested in bits and pieces in Nares Strait?
Yep.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #97 on: May 12, 2019, 09:47:33 PM »

uniquorn

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #98 on: May 12, 2019, 10:03:54 PM »
All hell breaks loose above Greenland, and you guys are only interested in bits and pieces in Nares Strait?
that's crazy for you  ;) I never knew that bit was the wandel sea

magnamentis

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Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« Reply #99 on: May 12, 2019, 10:17:53 PM »
... are we in agreement that splitting in two is not "shattered" ?

Look at the GIF above Magnamentis. I would say now it shattered, do you agree?

yep, absolutely, game over, i was in the 1-3d ballpark, a miss by day only haha...... [Just Kidding]

obvously on the wrong side ;)
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