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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5100 on: January 21, 2020, 04:05:31 PM »
 ;D
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5101 on: January 21, 2020, 06:45:45 PM »
An interesting side effect of the share price is that at around $600, Tesla could start gobbling up the competition.  Tata and their subsidiary JLR have a market cap of $6.1bn but lost $3.8bn in 2018.

Using an all share takeover, Tesla could gain manufacturing space in the UK and India in one go without having to build out the factories from new.

It is a new dynamic created by the huge valuation of Tesla.

I'm sure Musk wants to do this from a direct marketing run and not to take on existing FF business.  But there is an interesting dynamic here of win win.  If, for instance, Tesla were to buy out JLR, they could both remove JLR FF vehicles off the road and also replace them with EV variants.

There is an entire dynamic here which is missing from the Tesla story.  With this size of market cap virtually no car company is safe should Tesla choose to come calling...
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5102 on: January 21, 2020, 08:07:29 PM »
An interesting side effect of the share price is that at around $600, Tesla could start gobbling up the competition.  Tata and their subsidiary JLR have a market cap of $6.1bn but lost $3.8bn in 2018.

Using an all share takeover, Tesla could gain manufacturing space in the UK and India in one go without having to build out the factories from new.

UK
Depending on the EU/UK trade deal that is due to be negotiated this year, there could be a good number of empty UK auto factories in the next few years. Is the UK internal market big enough to support a Giga"n" factory (or two) if/when the UK loses its position as the industry aircraft carrier to the EU market?

In General
And why buy the company that owns them?

For Tesla,
The ICE technology of Tesla's competition has no value,
The EV technology of Tesla's competition has little to no value,
The existing production lines and machinery of Tesla's competition has little to no value,
The existing car workers (and a few switched on managers) would simply be rehired and retrained.

As you have pointed out, NeilT, Tesla's IT, and the way it designs and builds EVs owes little to nothing to the practices of the competition. Much better to let the competition go bust and buy the bits you want/need at the fire sale. After all, Capitalism, red in tooth & claw, rules, OK**?
______________________________________________________________
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/capitalism-red-tooth-claw-going-060013272.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5103 on: January 21, 2020, 08:51:49 PM »
gerontocrat wrote:
Quote
And why buy the company that owns [the factories]?

I agree.  Very soon the OEM’s ICE assets will be worth next to nothing, and their debts will be massive — including pensions.

Tesla has a blueprint for gigafactories now; one that is much more efficient than any ICE factory, or even Fremont.  Better to start from scratch, and include sustainable designs rather than tacking them on later.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5104 on: January 21, 2020, 09:00:20 PM »
Part 1 of this highly anticipated interview with Elon Musk is now up. 
This segment focuses mostly on his early days, before the rise of Tesla.  But as you can see from the outline below, it covers a lot of subjects.  Participants are listed below, but surprise guests also appear!

Third Row Tesla Podcast – Elon's Story
Published on Jan 20, 2020
Elon Musk is known for many different things – however, not many people seem to know a lot about Elon as a person, what led to him putting everything on the line to build SpaceX & Tesla, and why he continues pushing for a better future. 

In this video, Elon is sharing his story – raw & (almost) uncut.
Timestamps:
01:21 - Can you talk about the way you engage with customers online?
03:21 - Why do you like Twitter so much?
06:38 - What sticks out to you out of the things you've achieved?
Answer somehow get to stocks and money - and economics and other topics..
14:01 - Talking about this location
15:38 - Not enough people understand how Elon tries to make big changes with small products
17:03 - Did you always know you wanted to use business to solve problems?
26:23 - Why go and put your money to SpaceX?
28:32 - Why did you try to get capacitors into EV's back then?
30:31 - Maxwell
31:27 - Other car companies batteries
35:09 - Why was China the place chosen for GF3?
36:39 - How did Tesla manage to get the first fully owned car factory in China?
38:06 - How much have the production hell lessons helped you for the China factory?
41:28 - What are the misconceptions about your personal history that you would want to correct?
43:31 - Share more about your upbringing and why you came to North America.
53:00 - What did people think about Zip2?
58:26 - Kimbal shows up and they talk about Zip2
1:03:45 - Where did you get the technical knowledge to build Zip2?
1:05:14 - Do you still code?
1:19:42 - What made you do PayPal?
1:28:07 - So what made you part ways with PayPal?
1:29:31 - You seem to be attracted to crazy ideas, how do you find the courage?
1:32:57 - You love code but you don't seem to be bullish on Bitcoin, why is that?
1:35:40 - Would there be a direct democracy in Mars? What kind of laws?
1:42:35 - Start of SpaceX
1:49:30 - Did you think you are going to do dozens of launches a year?
1:53:45 - Early SpaceX
1:58:46 - Start of Tesla
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Find us on:
Our website: https://thirdrowtesla.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/thirdrowtesla

Links to the Third Row Crew members:
Sofiaan Fraval - https://teslasof.com
Steve Jobs Ghost - https://wholemars.net
Vincent Yu - https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesma...
Vivien Hantusch - https://www.vivien.space/
Kristen K10 - https://twitter.com/kristennetten
Galileo Russell - https://youtube.com/hyperchangetv

Kimbal's old rocket site mentioned in the video: https://kwajrockets.blogspot.com/

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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5105 on: January 21, 2020, 10:20:03 PM »
gerontocrat wrote:
Quote
And why buy the company that owns [the factories]?

I agree.  Very soon the OEM’s ICE assets will be worth next to nothing, and their debts will be massive — including pensions.

Tesla has a blueprint for gigafactories now; one that is much more efficient than any ICE factory, or even Fremont.  Better to start from scratch, and include sustainable designs rather than tacking them on later.

Lots of reasons, to many to list on my mobile but two stick out and a third is a synergy.

First is brand awareness.  Why are people buying EV's from other manufacturers when Tesla's are better and cheaper?

Second to deny an incumbent the ability to compete on the cheap

Synergy, JLR are in receipt of a commitment to fund £1bn into a UK centred battery factory. Why not get it for nothing?

Finally if you do a full stock buyout, at current price levels, it doesn't cost a penny.......

This is about business not ideology.

A thought for you.  What could an iPace, with Tesla power, drivetrain and software, not outsell? Talk about a potential top of the range Taycan killer.

Better to broaden the horizons before the incumbents finally spend enough to become a danger to Tesla.

Time to use that stock valuation for more than a short BBQ.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5106 on: January 21, 2020, 10:36:14 PM »
No reason to buy an incumbent. And it would drop the stock.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5107 on: January 21, 2020, 10:57:19 PM »
Buying an OEM would make Tesla responsible for service, warranties, (dealer contracts! :o ) etc. on that company’s existing ICE fleet.  No way!

Edit:  Still, this idea is an interesting switch from a few months ago when some Tesla bears on this board generously suggested that an OEM might buy Tesla, just to keep it as a niche offering. :D
« Last Edit: January 21, 2020, 11:06:08 PM by Sigmetnow »
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5108 on: Today at 12:33:32 AM »
Tesla close 547.20

Open        530.25
High           548.58
Low         528.41
Mkt cap     98.63B
P/E ratio    -
Div yield    -
Prev close   510.50
52-wk high  548.58
52-wk low   176.99

After hours price .... $554.38. !555.00 !

Quote
if the electric carmaker’s share price goes above $554.80 – which would value the firm at $100bn,
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jan/18/elon-musk-tesla-fifty-billion-dollar-pay-package-shares-soar

So it is getting very close has made it to that $100Bn. Of course it has to pass and maintain average above that for the first tranch and rise more for subsequent tranches.
« Last Edit: Today at 01:52:46 AM by crandles »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5109 on: Today at 02:10:55 AM »
David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital hedge fund had a “previously described as LARGE Jan 2020 put position” that is now worthless.

https://twitter.com/barkmsmeagol/status/1219755147129081857
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5110 on: Today at 03:21:36 AM »
Ontario, Canada buyer says Tesla called him about finalizing his Model Y delivery, saying Performance models would be available next month — and they told him all configurations would be available by Q3!
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/21/20, 7:59 PM
Interesting... but how?!
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1219786642594107393
Image of the Canadian’s post at the link.
- Model 3 ramp to all configs took 2 yrs

——
New Street Research
Quote
Pierre Ferragu (@p_ferragu) 1/21/20, 9:27 AM
1) We increased our $TSLA price target to $800 today. Worth noting, though, our initial target of $530 was set in 2018, so 2 years down the line, compounded 20% p.a., $800 is the right place to be. Not much has changed in our conviction!
https://twitter.com/p_ferragu/status/1219627618900815873
- 2) Our conviction is simple: beyond 2025, Tesla could sell 2-3m premium cars a year, at industry leading margins, with structural share gains. On our math, it means $1100-1700 per share by then.
3) In the meantime, the stock will remain volatile, as the spread between the bear and the bull cases remain wide. Buckle up for another ride!
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5111 on: Today at 10:27:59 AM »
Edit:  Still, this idea is an interesting switch from a few months ago when some Tesla bears on this board generously suggested that an OEM might buy Tesla, just to keep it as a niche offering. :D

It would change the entire narrative. Completely.  Then people (Analysts), might remember that Tesla is a nascent Mitsubishi more than a young Ford.

Traditionally a massive market Cap, which leverages the earnings well beyond what is normal, is used to buy out competition with less scope but more delivery.  It happens in the tech world all the time.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5112 on: Today at 10:35:45 AM »
David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital hedge fund had a “previously described as LARGE Jan 2020 put position” that is now worthless.

https://twitter.com/barkmsmeagol/status/1219755147129081857

[edit, fixed 2018 to 2019]

Short interest rose back up to very high levels again on the assumption that Tesla had to fall because of the sudden meteoric rise.

Recently I postulated two things.

First that the Tesla "low" of 2019 was an artificial bubble driven by shorts making up their own story on Tesla. Meaning that the meteoric rise was not some bull run but a market correction on a short distorted market.  Which means that the share price will not fall significantly again until the shorts have a viable story to drive the markets down.

Second that the hugely distorted short position on Tesla has caused a different earnings opportunity where the rest of the market can make a killing on short covering and that they can keep doing this for as long as the shorts stay in the game and Tesla keeps pumping out even moderately good news.

We shall see if this is the case. If it is, the shorts are in for a very long and uncomfortable ride on Tesla.
« Last Edit: Today at 10:46:02 AM by NeilT »
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5113 on: Today at 11:30:29 AM »
After hours is currently at 564
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5114 on: Today at 01:28:13 PM »
Pre market, 575.7
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bluice

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5115 on: Today at 01:55:27 PM »

First that the Tesla "low" of 2019 was an artificial bubble driven by shorts making up their own story on Tesla. Meaning that the meteoric rise was not some bull run but a market correction on a short distorted market.  Which means that the share price will not fall significantly again until the shorts have a viable story to drive the markets down.

Second that the hugely distorted short position on Tesla has caused a different earnings opportunity where the rest of the market can make a killing on short covering and that they can keep doing this for as long as the shorts stay in the game and Tesla keeps pumping out even moderately good news.

We shall see if this is the case. If it is, the shorts are in for a very long and uncomfortable ride on Tesla.

Interesting. This would mean that Tesla long positions are not only expecting company value to rise but they are also betting against the shorts. 

And when the valuation climbs Tesla must look more and more overvalued to short sellers.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5116 on: Today at 02:22:42 PM »

And when the valuation climbs Tesla must look more and more overvalued to short sellers.

That is my view.  Which just sets them up for an even bigger fall.

The seekingalpha post I linked above was talking full year profits for 2019.

If that is the case and ModelY ships in Feb and China goes well, the shorts are going to have a very bad 2020.

Next milestone is the Q2 2020 results where we could see a full consecutive 4Q of profitable operation.

There is a lot more to come.

Of course a bad start to 2020 and the wheels could come off the wagon again.  But I won't hold my breath.

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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5117 on: Today at 02:48:11 PM »
Applying Occams razor to a bear prediction elicits interesting results.

Quote
Bernstein analysts found after looking through historical data for what happens after large stocks doubled in under six months.

And they predict..

Quote
The firm also noted that, overall, the next six months of a high-flying stock's performance "appears to track revenue revisions." Bernstein said companies that significantly revise revenue forecasts higher typically continue to perform well even after doubling, as both shares of Tesla and Nvidia have in recent years. Bernstein does not expect those upward revisions will happen this time, however.

So let us apply Occams razor.

Teala 2019 results are basically from the production of the Fremont factory.  Giga3 is now producing at more than 1k per week and will ramp up to 3k per week by end Feb.

In order for Tesla revenues (note, not profit) not to rise, either Fremont output would need to drop by 140k or Giga3 will need to produce no vehicles.

Or.

Tesla revenue growth continues even faster in $terms rather than % yoy.

You choose.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5118 on: Today at 03:32:52 PM »

First that the Tesla "low" of 2019 was an artificial bubble driven by shorts making up their own story on Tesla. Meaning that the meteoric rise was not some bull run but a market correction on a short distorted market.  Which means that the share price will not fall significantly again until the shorts have a viable story to drive the markets down.

Second that the hugely distorted short position on Tesla has caused a different earnings opportunity where the rest of the market can make a killing on short covering and that they can keep doing this for as long as the shorts stay in the game and Tesla keeps pumping out even moderately good news.

We shall see if this is the case. If it is, the shorts are in for a very long and uncomfortable ride on Tesla.

Interesting. This would mean that Tesla long positions are not only expecting company value to rise but they are also betting against the shorts. 

And when the valuation climbs Tesla must look more and more overvalued to short sellers.

Tesla stock recommendations have long been, and continue to be, extremely bipolar.
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