Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Electric cars  (Read 105654 times)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1900 on: October 01, 2020, 09:39:15 PM »
South Korea
Tesla’s $25K car will force EV rivals to make painful sacrifices: industry experts
September 29, 2020
Quote
Industry experts from South Korea have noted that Tesla’s upcoming $25,0000 vehicle, which is expected to debut in about three years, will likely force the hand of the company’s domestic rivals. With such a vehicle in the market, automakers like Hyundai and Kia would have to come up with comparably-priced electric cars that could compete with Tesla in terms of price and features. Such initiatives would require vast resources to pull off.

In a statement to The Korea Bizwire, the industry experts noted that local EV manufacturers would likely need about four or five years to come up with a vehicle that’s on par with Tesla’s $25,000 car. Elon Musk has noted that the $25,000 Tesla will still feature great performance and tech like the company’s existing S3XY vehicle lineup. That’s a pretty high bar for rivals to meet, considering Tesla’s battery and tech advantage.

Current average market prices of EVs in South Korea excluding subsidies range between 45.6-48.8 million won (about $38,900-$41,600) for medium-sized models and about 39.2 million to 41.7 million won for smaller cars. With this in mind, the idea of a premium EV priced below 30 million won would likely be possible only if South Korean battery makers like LG Chem decide to match their prices with Tesla.


Hyundai Motor will lose 12 trillion won* if domestic car makers cut production costs by 30 to 40 percent to compete with Tesla,” Lee said.

The upcoming arrival of Tesla’s $25,000 car may end up fostering innovation among its domestic rivals as well. Kwon Soon-woo, a researcher at SK Securities Co, explained that local electric car makers could catch up to Tesla’s price and level, but the automakers would have to sacrifice their profits in exchange for rapid technical breakthroughs in the coming years. But even then, Tesla’s $25,000 vehicle would still likely beat its rivals to market.

“If automakers sacrifice profits in exchange for a breakthrough in the market, EVs that cost less than 30 million won may be available in four to five years,” Kwon said.  ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-25k-compact-car-forces-sacrifices-legacy-auto/
*12 trillion won = $10B

—-
⬇️ Image below. 
This is what is required to beat Tesla sales in China today:  a micro car for $5,000. ;D
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1901 on: October 03, 2020, 01:07:55 AM »
—- VW by Region
Quote
Sam Korus (@skorusARK) 10/2/20, 12:51 PM
Note the global car market is through August as I'm using this report for that number, and then Tesla publishes their own data globally, but on a quarterly basis.
https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/1312072762077347844
⬇️ Image below.


 —- Global BEV Sales
Quote
ceo plus, Roger Rusch (@ceo_plus_ch) 10/2/20, 5:22 AM
Global #BEV Sales Jan-Aug 2020, top 15 BEV models:

Of the top 15 models, #Tesla’s share is:
- 40.1%
- nearly 5 times the share of the runner-up (Renault)
- nearly as large as the 7 runners-up


(Source: ev-sales.blogspot.com) pic.twitter.com/Pd9GRxGLFv
https://twitter.com/ceo_plus_ch/status/1311959778860699649
⬇️ Graph below:  Global BEV Sales
ceo plus, Roger Rusch:  Here’s the data source. The blue ones are the top 15 #BEV (fully electric) models. The black ones are PHEVs, i.e. not electric cars, but gas guzzlers.
Credit to ev-sales.blogspot.com!
https://twitter.com/ceo_plus_ch/status/1311963595450863618
[At the link:  Image of the data]
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1902 on: October 03, 2020, 02:17:57 AM »
—- Nikola saga continues
 The Nikola-GM deal that was supposed to close by Sept. 30 is still being negotiated — in the days since the Hindenburg reports, the stock price has plunged and GM’s “11% stake” has lost half its value.  And it’s clear by now that Nikola is nothing without GM, so Nikola has little to bargain with. 
• The CFO of VectoIQ, the SPAC that took Nikola public, has been installed on Nikola’s board. 
• Nikola’s much-hyped Badger pickup truck was not even mentioned in their recent press statement of plans and expectations. 
• The map of all those Nikola hydrogen-stations-to-be has mysteriously disappeared from their website. 
• And Nikola is taking down negative YouTube videos that contain (the questionable) Nikola footage, using copyright claims in a scorched-earth campaign that may leave them open to lawsuits.

GM, Nikola renegotiate as Nikola makes more leadership changes
Oct. 1, 2020
Quote
General Motors is seeking a higher equity stake in Nikola Corp. in return for sharing its fuel cell and battery technologies as well as building the Badger, a heavy-duty electric pickup, for Nikola.

Two people familiar with the deal told the Free Press that lawyers for GM and Nikola have been meeting daily. GM originally agreed to an 11% equity stake in Nikola, but given a dramatic plunge in Nikola's stock price, those terms could be on the table for renegotiation, they said. Both people have asked to not be identified because of the sensitivity of the negotiations.

The companies announced the deal Sept. 8. At that time GM's 11% agreed-to equity stake in Nikola would have been worth about $2 billion. But after a short seller's report accused Nikola of fraud, its stock price plummeted.

The deal with GM was expected to close by Sept. 30, but on Tuesday, GM said it had not closed on it and was continuing discussions with Nikola.

"GM has one overarching interest: The GM business and the GM brand," said Jacob Frenkel, a former federal prosecutor and chair of government investigations and securities enforcement at the law firm Dickinson Wright in Washington, D.C. "If Nikola advances both, even under intense scrutiny, there very well could be a business relationship going forward. If GM senses reputational or business risk, any agreement is bound for the shredder.”

But, while some Nikola commercial trucks are mentioned by name in the [press] statement, the Badger is not. Nikola also said it was rescheduling an in-person Nikola World event in Arizona where it was set to reveal the Badger Dec. 3-5. But it said that change is due to COVID-19 and Nikola said it will provide progress updates for all the vehicle across its portfolio.

Nevertheless, the news has some speculating that GM is backing out of wanting to make the Badger as part of its deal, leaving Nikola to either table the vehicle or find another manufacturing partner. …
https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2020/10/01/gm-nikola-renegotiate-leadership-changes/5883599002/

—-
Nikola Appoints Steve Shindler to Board of Directors
He most recently served as Chief Financial Officer of VectoIQ Acquisition Corp.
October 1, 2020
https://fuelcellsworks.com/news/nikola-appoints-steve-shindler-to-board-of-directors/

—-
News Analysis: Evidence Mounts That Nikola Badger Is Roadkill
Quote
The much-hyped Nikola Badger electric pickup looks like an endangered species. It is absent from the electric truck startup's road map of milestones, and a delayed manufacturing deal with General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) points to its demise before a physical prototype is ever revealed.

The Badger was not in Nikola Corp. (NASDAQ: NKLA) business plan a year ago. And it isn't there now. Founder Trevor Milton used it as a buzz-building tool for the company following the reveal of rival Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) Cybertruck, a polarizing design that the electric truck leader plans to build at a new plant in Austin, Texas.

A spokeswoman declined Thursday to say how many deposits the company received for the Badger or how much money was collected.
Either side can walk away if it does not close by Dec. 3.
https://www.benzinga.com/node/17744132

—-
Financial Times:  “Nikola targets critical YouTube Accounts in Copyright crackdown”
⬇️ Excerpt image below.  See also the first video below.
Quote
Jessica Meckmann (@meckimac) 10/2/20, 11:08 AM
Interestingly, those youtube channels that reported positive about Nikola have not been affected by those DMCA claims... This stinks badly.  $NKLA #NikolaGate
https://twitter.com/meckimac/status/1312046892361097217

Steven Mark Ryan videos:
Nikola: Desperately Trying to HIDE the TRUTH (red flag!) - YouTube
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8N8MHN2Ce4w

Jim Cramer on Nikola Allegations - YouTube
➡️https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t6BSZCxuMeo

—-
Quote
Exci (@DjFunkBoss) 10/1/20, 9:02 PM
nikolamotor.com/stations  I wonder what happened to the Hydrogen Station map on Nikola’s web site?
[404: Page not found]
< Oh must be just a small glitch with the “cutting edge HTML5” servers [as Trevor called them] lol
https://twitter.com/djfunkboss/status/1311834002299396097
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1903 on: October 03, 2020, 02:30:05 AM »
—- Mercedes autonomy
Quote
Mo Suraj (@moosuraj) 10/1/20, 7:52 PM
Mercedes-Benz Pilot Project ( The world without Tesla )   
https://twitter.com/moosuraj/status/1311816288436727808
At the link: 90-sec vid of a LIDAR-studded Bosch/MB ADAS car, with a very attentive safety driver and lots of passengers.


—- Polestar 2 recalled
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/1/20, 8:18 PM
“'New Polestar 2 owners received warning issues on their drive systems, followed by the car stopping to work suddenly. Some never even received the warning issues” — Interesting Engineering
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1311822737246093314

Anton Kanerva: 
All Polestar 2 recalled due to software issue causing the cars to suddenly stop.

Anton Kanerva (@antonkanerva) 10/2/20, 4:20 PM
Polestar 2 does not yet have OTA updates to fix software bugs like Tesla can.
https://twitter.com/antonkanerva/status/1312125392514236416
[At the link:  Polestar expects some OTA capability in 2021.]
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1904 on: October 03, 2020, 08:19:15 PM »
Nikola has removed all their illegal [allegedly] YouTube strikes.

Nikola Backs Down (WE WON!)
➡️https://youtu.be/yXMTgGX0YIk
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2470
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1182
  • Likes Given: 1027
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1905 on: October 04, 2020, 11:18:30 PM »
Ha good. Most of these were completely ridiculous and illegal. If someone critiques your press conference that is fair use. Plus Nikola creates as much content as electric cars so all strikes were.

It´s probably best the company goes under....always seemed wrong to me to have both Nikola and Tesla  competing.  :)
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1906 on: October 05, 2020, 04:27:27 PM »
...
It´s probably best the company goes under....always seemed wrong to me to have both Nikola and Tesla  competing.  :)

I would be thrilled if Nikola offered an actual electric vehicle that worked — even a completely energy-inefficient hydrogen fuel cell truck is better than diesel.  But all they have is renders.  Their prototypes are next to worthless.  The Badger pickup truck was a total scam:  Trevor admitted its purpose was to attract large numbers of retail investors, who aren’t interested in semi trucks.  The Tesla Semi will make Nikola’s pie-in-the-sky (but vital) hydrogen network extraneous, and prove you can’t just throw a few off-the-shelf parts together and claim you can now produce thousands of capable electric trucks. 

GM can take the Nikola name and test the electric truck market without sullying the GM truck brands.  But Nikola as a company is dead and its leaders need to be held accountable for the massive financial fraud they perpetrated.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3729
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1907 on: October 05, 2020, 07:54:16 PM »
...
It´s probably best the company goes under....always seemed wrong to me to have both Nikola and Tesla  competing.  :)

I would be thrilled if Nikola offered an actual electric vehicle that worked — even a completely energy-inefficient hydrogen fuel cell truck is better than diesel.  But all they have is renders.  Their prototypes are next to worthless.  The Badger pickup truck was a total scam:  Trevor admitted its purpose was to attract large numbers of retail investors, who aren’t interested in semi trucks.  The Tesla Semi will make Nikola’s pie-in-the-sky (but vital) hydrogen network extraneous, and prove you can’t just throw a few off-the-shelf parts together and claim you can now produce thousands of capable electric trucks. 

GM can take the Nikola name and test the electric truck market without sullying the GM truck brands.  But Nikola as a company is dead and its leaders need to be held accountable for the massive financial fraud they perpetrated.
Add to that the ammunition thrown at the denial industry - the the technology does not work, stick with diesel...

Mind you, I always thought that H2 as a fuel would be much more feasible in those industries where large amounts of heat are required.- and maybe for ocean-going shipping. Liquid hydrogen at - 252  degrees celsius just seems a dodgy idea in semis, and not needed to replace disesel trucks.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1420
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 232
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1908 on: October 06, 2020, 01:12:36 AM »
EVs took 8% of the market share in Germany in September 2020.  Hybrids accounted for more than 20%.  Registrations of new gas and diesel cars fell, as did carbon emissions. This is not good news for the oil companies.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-registers-more-20000-pure-electric-cars-month-first-time

Quote
05 Oct 2020
Sören Amelang
Germany registers more than 20,000 pure electric cars in a month for first time

Clean Energy Wire

A record number of car buyers in Germany have opted for electric vehicles in September. The number of new purely electric vehicles rose to 21,188 last month, an increase of 260 percent compared to a year ago, the country's Federal Motor Transport Authority KBA said in a press release. Battery electric vehicles (BEV) now account for an 8 percent share of the car market. Registrations of hybrid cars rose 185 percent to 54,036 vehicles, resulting in a share of 20.4 percent. Of these, 20,127 were plug-ins (PHEV) – an increase of 460 percent for a total share of 7.6 percent.

Quote
Registrations of cars equipped with a petrol engine declined almost 18 percent to 120,645, but their share remained high at 45.5 percent. Diesel registrations fell 6.4 percent to 67,901, a share of 25.6 percent. Average CO2 emissions fell 13 percent compared to a year ago, to 134,3 grams per kilometre. The take-up of electric vehicles has been slow in Germany in comparison to many other markets. But thanks to new government incentives, registrations have picked up sharply in recent months. Germany has been struggling to lower emissions in the transport sector, which have remained broadly stable for decades as gains from more efficient engines have been eaten up by heavier cars.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1909 on: October 06, 2020, 03:25:48 AM »
Car registrations in Germany

Click to embiggen.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

KiwiGriff

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 836
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 419
  • Likes Given: 148
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1910 on: October 06, 2020, 07:28:01 AM »
5% on the s curve is the piont it really takes off.
Bye bye ice transport you are doomed
A lot quicker than many think.
Norway was almost 62% bev this quarter.


Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1985
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 187
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1911 on: October 06, 2020, 01:22:08 PM »
62% is really good, but just how far they have to go is a reality check.

As of 2019 Norway had 2.8m passenger and light duty vehicles on the road.  As of May 2020, 290k were plug in and 160k were BEV.  I don't count hybrids in this penetration.

Meaning that BEV represent 5.7% of the total vehicle stock in Norway.

To change that dramatically will take a decade of 62% sales.

Of course, from 2025, in Norway, it will be illegal to sell a new FF vehicle.  So things should pick up pretty rapidly from there.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1912 on: October 06, 2020, 05:55:53 PM »
After 12 years, Mitsubishi kills the i-MiEV electric car
It was the first electric car we ever reviewed, but it was not good.
10/2/2020
Quote
It must be canceling season in Japan right now. First we found out the shocking news that Honda is withdrawing from Formula 1 at the end of 2021. Now, it's the Mitsubishi i-MiEV electric vehicle's turn. Nikkei reports that the automaker is calling time on this diminutive battery EV this year, quoting an unnamed executive as saying, "We didn't have enough money and personnel to continue investing in EV development."

Unlike the Honda news, the only real surprise here is that the i-MiEV was even still in production. Mitsubishi has only managed to sell 32,000 of them since 2009, and here in the US sales of the i-MiEV ended in 2017. …
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/10/after-12-years-mitsubishi-kills-the-i-miev-electric-car/

—— Two Twitter threads chock full of non-Tesla EVs. 
(Not all are available to buy. ;) )
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/5/20, 9:17 PM
If you had to buy an EV, and it couldn’t be a Tesla... what would you buy? 
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1313287187983527936
Many unusual choices, including going without.

Quote
Snow Bull Capital (@snowbullcapital) 10/5/20, 5:57 PM
EV Thread: 2 auto shows in China wrapped up yesterday. Auto China - Beijing International Automotive Exhibition, & Shanghai Pudong International Automotive Exhibition. Here’s a recap of some of the EVs at the shows. Many Chinese brands. China is very clearly leading the EV future
https://twitter.com/snowbullcapital/status/1313236938162425856

—- Tesla at the China Auto show
Quote
Ray4️⃣Tesla (@ray4tesla) 10/4/20, 11:13 AM
The MIC Model 3 price cuts announced on Oct. 1 definitely have a huge impact on demand. People are seen lining up to place orders at the current auto shows in China. Here is what the line looks like. Just as crazy as it can be.
https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1312772738411425793
[Brief cell phone vid at the link.]
~ Somebody in the background said that was the payment line.


—- Toyota expects to roll out a pilot fuel cell electric big rig early next year in North America
Quote
Plano[Texas]-based Toyota Motor North America and the company’s truck and bus subsidiary, Hino USA, say they will jointly develop a heavy-duty fuel cell electric big rig for the North American market.

The companies will use Hino’s new XL Series chassis and Toyota’s fuel cell technology to deliver “exceptional capability without harmful emissions,” according to an announcement Monday. The collaboration expands on an existing partnership to develop a 25-ton fuel cell electric truck for the Japanese market, which was announced earlier this year.
The first demonstration vehicle is expected to arrive in the first half of 2021, Toyota said.

“A fuel cell powered version of the Hino XL Series is a win-win for both customers and the community. It will be quiet, smooth and powerful while emitting nothing but water,” said a statement from Tak Yokoo, senior executive engineer at Toyota Research and Development.

Toyota and Hino have been working on hydrogen fuel cell technology for 20 years and see it as a zero-emissions alternative to battery power for large commercial vehicles. The companies conducted joint demonstration trials of a fuel cell bus in 2003….
https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/toyota-expects-to-roll-out-a-pilot-fuel-cell-electric-big-rig-early-next-year-in-north-america/ar-BB19Jdzd
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1913 on: October 06, 2020, 06:00:33 PM »
—-  :o  Faraday Future and Fisker go SPAC

EV startup Faraday Future in talks to go public through SPAC merger
Quote
DETROIT (Reuters) - Electric vehicle startup Faraday Future aims to close a deal soon to go public through a reverse merger with a special-purchase acquisition company (SPAC), its chief executive said on Monday.
"We are working on such a deal ... and will be able to announce something hopefully quite soon," Carsten Breitfeld said of the possibility of a SPAC deal.
Breitfeld declined to say who Faraday is negotiating with or when a deal would close.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN26Q36M

Quote
Henrik Fisker (@henrikfisker) 10/5/20, 4:17 PM
Symbol on NYSE will be “FSR” following completion of the business combination with Spartan Energy Acquisition Corp. #SPAQ. If you are a #SPAQ stockholder as of October 1, 2020, please make sure to vote in advance of the stockholder meeting on October 28, 2020. #fisker #EVs
https://twitter.com/henrikfisker/status/1313211784627544066

—— Engines and steel
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/5/20, 12:07 PM
"Continental does not expect global vehicle production to return to 2017 precrisis levels before 2025 — and against this current backdrop, the former joint expectations of profitable growth for the joint venture can no longer be realized" –– Statement from Continental, via AN
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1313148696578596871

Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/5/20, 11:56 AM

"A leading steel industry analyst has been warning of a significant shake-up coming to the global industry that she calls "steelmageddon" — a capacity glut scenario requiring the closure of production capacity in the U.S. and around the world" –– Auto News
< My father works in the steel industry and says it's been getting more painful each month. This is bad if we become reliant on imported steel, which is where it's headed. Quality is subpar and this is what we use to make export products.
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1313146069010665478
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Yuha

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 303
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 53
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1914 on: October 06, 2020, 11:55:10 PM »
62% is really good, but just how far they have to go is a reality check.

As of 2019 Norway had 2.8m passenger and light duty vehicles on the road.  As of May 2020, 290k were plug in and 160k were BEV.  I don't count hybrids in this penetration.

Meaning that BEV represent 5.7% of the total vehicle stock in Norway.

To change that dramatically will take a decade of 62% sales.

Of course, from 2025, in Norway, it will be illegal to sell a new FF vehicle.  So things should pick up pretty rapidly from there.

Those numbers seem too low. According to wikipedia:
Quote
As of 30 June 2020, the stock of light-duty plug-in electric vehicles in Norway totaled 420,237 units in use, consisting of 290,436 all-electric passenger cars and vans (including used imports), and 129,801 plug-in hybrids.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway

The wikipedia source is this site:
https://elbil.no/elbilstatistikk/

So BEVs are already over 10%.

But you are right, it will take time. Only about 5% of the fleet is replaced each year. So Norway might reach 50% BEVs by the end of the decade but not much earlier.

interstitial

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 605
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 212
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1915 on: October 07, 2020, 06:23:58 AM »
a hybrid runs 100% on gasoline. It only counts as a slightly more efficient gasoline engine. In practical terms plug in batteries are similar unless you have a really short commute and plug it every day. So 5% not 10%. But I expect it to continue ramping up from 62%
                                 

interstitial

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 605
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 212
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1916 on: October 07, 2020, 06:30:49 AM »
Gas stations in Norway have seen the impact on their bottom line and some of them have started to close. I expect that vehicle replacement rates start accelerating as they continue to close.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1985
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 187
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1917 on: October 07, 2020, 09:37:37 AM »

So BEVs are already over 10%.


You are right, I read that differently.  I was subtracting the hybrids from the 290k.  Whereas they are, in fact, part of the 450k.

But it will still take time.  I expect 62% to come closer to 100% from 2025, but it will still take a while to get over 50%.  Once they have shifted to 100% EV in 2025 I expect them to also put in taxes and incentives to encourage a much higher roll over of vehicles and a faster phase out of FF vehicles.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

blu_ice

  • New ice
  • Posts: 28
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1918 on: October 07, 2020, 10:57:36 AM »
At some point in BEV market penetration the vehicle replacement cycle will speed up. Old ICE cars become undesirable when there is a substantial market for affordable second hand BEVs. ICE cars will obviously decrease in value, but their high fuel and maintenance costs will remain. This means more demand for used BEVs, which increases their prices encouraging BEV drivers to replace their cars with latest models. Rinse and repeat.

Also, petrol aka gasoline is a commodity sold in high volume and with a small margin. Decreasing sales mean increasing marginal cost and higher price on the pump.

Yuha

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 303
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 53
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1919 on: October 07, 2020, 11:10:20 AM »
But it will still take time.  I expect 62% to come closer to 100% from 2025, but it will still take a while to get over 50%.  Once they have shifted to 100% EV in 2025 I expect them to also put in taxes and incentives to encourage a much higher roll over of vehicles and a faster phase out of FF vehicles.

It will be interesting to see how the end game plays out in Norway. Will the ICE vehicles hang around until their natural end of life or will they be scrapped early or will they be exported somewhere else?

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1985
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 187
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1920 on: October 07, 2020, 04:05:50 PM »
Today I saw the Mercedes investors presentation.

https://www.daimler.com/dokumente/investoren/praesentationen/daimler-ir-mercedes-benz-strategy-update-2020-presentation.pdf

>20% BEV by 2030.

Achieved with a 20% reduction in Capex and R&D

I have an image (well I don't because I'm apahntasic but...), that comes to mind (logically).

Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1921 on: October 07, 2020, 06:13:03 PM »
Today I saw the Mercedes investors presentation.

https://www.daimler.com/dokumente/investoren/praesentationen/daimler-ir-mercedes-benz-strategy-update-2020-presentation.pdf

>20% BEV by 2030.  ...

ARK Invest:
Quote
Sam Korus (@skorusARK) 10/6/20, 10:13 AM
1/ Daimler just had their strategy update.
I think the EV portion can be summed up as: "Everyone keeps telling us the future is electric, but we're not fully convinced."
https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/1313482443652038660
[Images at the thread.]

2/ Their first EV built from the ground up comes out next year  ...just 9 years after Tesla's Model S.
3/ Their next EV platform designed from the ground up for mid-size cars comes...later. And...it also has space for an ICE in the front for hybrid?!  That's not what I'd call an EV platform designed from the ground up.
4/ German car companies love their gearboxes. Another move that removes some of the simplicity of EVs.
5/ Interesting to see them note LFP [batteries] for entry level vehicles
6/ Careful capital allocation, but how careful?  How long until other automakers go cell to vehicle?

< This strategy has the appearance of almost-ready-to-retire executives that are trying to eek out a few more years of compensation before retiring.
<< More and more European countries are talking about stopping ICE car sales 2030. Daimler: we're not fully convinced? C’mon, who are they talking to ?
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1922 on: October 07, 2020, 06:24:14 PM »
—-  Speaking of ARK invest:
Quote
Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) 10/6/20, 2:31 PM
We've been informed of fraudulent YouTube channels & websites posing as @ARKInvest & @CathieDWood.
ARK will NEVER use YouTube, Twitter, IG or any social media to solicit money, including bitcoin. We encourage you to report any account that may impersonate ARK or our affiliates.

 We do have a YouTube channel! The only YouTube channel associated with ARK and/or Cathie Wood is https://m.youtube.com/c/Arkinvest2015/   
https://twitter.com/cathiedwood/status/1313547340272340993

——-
Official Polestar 2 EPA Range Rating Is Very Disappointing
Quote
It's nowhere near the 275-mile (442 km) target, not even close to the 470 km (292 miles) WLTP result either.
The official range rating for the 2021 Polestar 2 is 233 miles (375 km), using a 78 kWh battery, which is far below our expectations. ...
https://insideevs.com/news/447571/official-polestar-2-epa-range-rating-disappointed/amp/

—-
Quote
Alex (@alex_avoigt)10/6/20, 7:48 AM
Porsche sales in Germany -22% YTD
Taycan sells well but can't compensate for the loss in ICE
That's a pattern the entire auto industry faces
To compensate Porsche invests now in eFuels continues Hybrids and ICE claiming its better to achieve climate goals
motor.at/technik/porsch…

< They had a forecast of 20k, claimed 30k reservations and bumped the forecast to 40k. But only delivered 4.480 in the first half of 2020. That number should have been 20k?
A: Porsche, as well as VW, try all they can to create the impression of success even if hard data show they are lacking behind.
Considering the rush to BEVs the delivery numbers from German incumbents are disappointing.
< 40k forecast before or after Covid-19 hit?
A:  20k before and increased to 40k later
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1985
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 187
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1923 on: October 07, 2020, 10:59:23 PM »
< This strategy has the appearance of almost-ready-to-retire executives that are trying to eek out a few more years of compensation before retiring.

I have been thinking about that.

The strategy looks very like a company readying itself to be bought.

Focus on cost and margin, reducing investment in R&D, putting high focus on a technology another company could buy up.

BTW, that bird is a Dodo.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4113
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2400
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1924 on: October 08, 2020, 07:43:19 PM »
Owning an Electric Car Really Does Save Money, Consumer Reports Finds
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/10/owning-an-electric-car-really-does-save-money-consumer-reports-finds/

If you bought a Tesla Model 3 instead of a BMW 3 Series or Audi A4, you'd probably save $15,000 over the total lifetime of the vehicle. That's according to a new analysis from Consumer Reports, which examines the total cost of ownership for electric vehicles—both battery EVs and plug-in hybrid EVs—versus comparable internal combustion engine vehicles.

CR found that much lower maintenance costs and the lower price of electricity compared to gasoline more than offsets the higher purchase price of a new BEV compared to an ICE.

As expected, CR's data confirms earlier work—lifetime maintenance costs for BEVs and PHEVs really are about half the cost for an ICE vehicle. For the first 50,000 miles (80,500km), the maintenance and repair costs for a BEV are just $0.012 per mile; for a PHEV it's $0.021, and $0.028 for ICE. For the next 50,000 miles, the gap between BEV and PHEV closes, at $0.028 and $0.031 respectively—you can expect to pay twice as much, or $0.06 per mile, for ICE.

CR's data for maintenance and repair costs between 100,000-200,000 miles is a bit weaker because of a smaller sample size—only about 200 PHEVs and 55 BEVs, mostly older Nissan Leafs and Tesla Models S. However, the costs over this period were calculated at $0.043 for BEVs, $0.033 for PHEVs, and $0.079 for ICE. The lifetime average was $0.031 per mile for BEVs, $0.030 for PHEVs, and $0.061 for ICE.

... and lots more data ...
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1925 on: October 08, 2020, 08:44:12 PM »
Phoenix, Arizona, U.S.
Waymo starts to open driverless ride-hailing service to the public
October 8, 2020
Quote
Waymo, the Google self-driving-project-turned-Alphabet unit, is beginning to open up its driverless ride-hailing service to the public.

The company said that starting today members of its Waymo One service will be able to take family and friends along on their fully driverless rides in the Phoenix area. Existing Waymo One members will have the first access to the driverless rides — terminology that means no human behind the wheel. However, the company said that in the next several weeks more people will be welcomed directly into the service through its app, which is available on Google Play and the App Store.

Waymo said that 100% of its rides will be fully driverless — which it has deemed its “rider only” mode. That 100% claim requires a bit of unpacking. The public shouldn’t expect hundreds of Waymo-branded Chrysler Pacifica minivans — no human behind the wheel — to suddenly inundate the entire 600-plus square miles of the greater Phoenix area.

Waymo has abut 600 vehicles in its fleet. About 300 to 400 of those are in the Phoenix area. Waymo wouldn’t share exact numbers of how many of these vehicles would be dedicated to driverless rides. However, Waymo CEO John Krafcik explained to TechCrunch in a recent interview, that there will be various modes operating in the Phoenix area. Some of these will be “rider only,” while other vehicles will still have train safety operators behind the wheel. Some of the fleet will also be used for testing.

Waymo said it has added new safety protocols due to COVID-19, including requiring users to wear masks, having hand sanitizer in all vehicles and conducting what Krafcik described as a cabin flush — essentially a four to five increase in air volume sent through the vehicle — after every ride.

Krafcik also said Waymo will soon add the all-electric Jaguar I-Pace to the mix, first testing them on public roads and then adding the vehicles to the early rider program.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/08/waymo-starts-to-open-driverless-ride-hailing-service-to-the-public/amp/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1926 on: October 08, 2020, 09:14:37 PM »
FSD - Full Self Driving
Quote
Tasha Keeney (@TashaARK) 10/8/20, 1:52 PM
6/ The first robotaxis likely won't be autonomous everywhere, all weather, all scenarios, but even a level 4 (some remote human help, a small % of the time) autonomous taxi could still be less than half the cost of driving your personal car.
https://twitter.com/tashaark/status/1314262397071302661
⬇️Graph below.

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/8/20, 2:03 PM

Waymo is impressive, but a highly specialized solution. The Tesla approach is a general solution. The latest build is capable of zero intervention drives. Will release limited beta in a few weeks.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1314265240268402691


Tesla to release self-driving Beta capable of ‘zero intervention’ in a few weeks
October 8, 2020
Quote
Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated earlier today that the latest build of FSD software would be released “in a few weeks.”
Musk’s idea of a completely self-driving vehicle has been evident for several years. Obtaining full autonomy is anything but an easy task, and Musk recognizes that other companies have done an efficient job creating driver assistance features to increase safety.

While ARK Invest’s Tasha Keeney described the process and development of self-driving vehicles in a series of tweets on Thursday, Musk stated that Waymo, another company with its sights set on fully-autonomous navigation, is doing an “impressive” job with developing zero-intervention driving capabilities.

The Tesla CEO then revealed that the company would release “the latest build” in a few weeks, which is capable of zero-intervention drives. This means that those operating the company’s vehicles with the Full Self-Driving suite will not be required to input any commands to their car.

The introduction of this capability hints toward the possible rollout of Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet, which will be the company’s in-house ride-hailing service. Before Tesla can allow drivers to use the Robotaxi fleet to take people from location to location, it must refine and improve its Autopilot and Full-Self Driving Suite, which the company has done through a series of Software Updates to improve functionality.

The announcement also coincides with Elon Musk’s belief that Tesla would be able to make use of the Robotaxi fleet in 2021. During the Q1 Earnings Call in 2020, Musk described his idea for the Robotaxi’s imminent rollout in 2021. “Not in all markets, but some,” he said. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-robotaxi-zero-intervention-self-driving-beta-release/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1927 on: October 08, 2020, 10:02:42 PM »
Quote
Pierre Ferragu (@p_ferragu) 10/8/20, 8:12 AM
So many people asked for it - here is our analysis showing traditional OEMs have to spend $18,000 per car to electrify them.
This is pretty factual and damn scary for them! #TESLA has no competition on the horizon.
https://twitter.com/p_ferragu/status/1314176764873191424
⬇️First table below
~ The [Tesla Model] S trim probably has 30% margins. I am looking at costs here. Platform cost is indicated by entry price not performance models.

——-
YTD 2020 U.S. Auto Manufacturer Sales Figures
https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2020-us-auto-sales-figures-by-manufacturer/
⬇️Second table below.
“Mercedes-Benz and Jaguar Land Rover will release their numbers later this month.”
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3637
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 633
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1928 on: October 09, 2020, 03:43:34 PM »
Quote
This means that those operating the company’s vehicles with the Full Self-Driving suite will not be required to input any commands to their car.
[emphasis added]
So, I sit down and put my seat-belt on, and what, the car just knows if I want to buy groceries (and at what store) or just to sit there enjoying the luxury?  Do I need a sensor on my scalp? Or does the car read minds, now?
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1985
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 187
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1929 on: October 09, 2020, 03:57:34 PM »
Erm, no, you pull out your mobile phone, enter your local shopping destination into the phone, get in the car, click GO and once you have put your seatbelt on it takes you where you asked it to go.  Sans intervention....

I'm pretty certain that they don't call telling the car where to go an intervention.  They call an intervention the need to override the self driving because it made a mistake.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3637
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 633
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1930 on: October 09, 2020, 05:34:19 PM »
Phew ...so we do get to send a command to the car.  I was worried there for a moment.  :P
Good thing we're taught not to believe what we read ("fake news" and all that).  ::)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3729
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1931 on: October 09, 2020, 07:44:03 PM »
Or does the car read minds, now?

Not yet. Musk hasn't finished developing the interface.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3637
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 633
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1932 on: October 09, 2020, 09:25:31 PM »
When it can read my mind (I recently read something of Musk's interest/work in this area), will it decide on where to go when my thoughts are
  • I should visit my mother
  • I really want to visit my brother
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3729
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1933 on: October 10, 2020, 08:15:07 AM »
When it can read my mind (I recently read something of Musk's interest/work in this area), will it decide on where to go when my thoughts are
  • I should visit my mother
  • I really want to visit my brother
Neither. It will take you to your therapist.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1985
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 187
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1934 on: October 10, 2020, 11:15:43 AM »
And book the appointment before leaving.....  ;D
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1985
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 187
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1935 on: October 10, 2020, 11:20:07 AM »
Phew ...so we do get to send a command to the car.  I was worried there for a moment.  :P
Good thing we're taught not to believe what we read ("fake news" and all that).  ::)

On a slightly more serious note, it is more about understanding the terminology. When Musk talks about intervention he does not mean without interaction.

Interaction would be to tell it where to go.  Intervention would be stopping it from doing something wrong.

I would love to intervene in my wife's driving.  She has far worse eyesight than I do, far slower reactions and the invincible belief that she is the only good driver on the road.  When finished I'd take FSD any day.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3637
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 633
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1936 on: October 10, 2020, 01:49:54 PM »
Neil,
I appreciate the distinction you make. 
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1937 on: October 10, 2020, 10:08:46 PM »
... Do I need a sensor on my scalp? Or does the car read minds, now?

Well, Elon Musk affirmed that people with Neuralink will be able to Summon their Teslas telepathically.... :)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1938 on: October 11, 2020, 04:32:54 AM »
Norway in September:  61.5% EVs
60% of cars sold in Norway last month were electric
Quote
   •   Almost two-thirds of new cars sold in Norway in September were electric.
   •   When hybrids are included, the total jumps up to 89%.
   •   Norway leads the world in the percentage of electric and hybrid cars on its roads.
   •   But now the government is reducing the tax breaks that have fueled the electric boom.
   •   Some say it's time electric cars paid their fair share of the cost of the roads.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/10/norway-electric-cars-majority-sales

—-
New Bill Seeks to Transition New York to Zero-Emission Vehicles by 2035, Follows California's Lead
Quote
On September 25, New York State Senator Pete Harckham introduced new legislation that would require all new car and truck sales in the state to be zero-emission by 2035. The legislation further stipulates that all in-state sales of medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks be zero-emission by 2045. Similar sales of off-road vehicles and power equipment will also be expected to be zero-emission by 2035, according to The New York State Senate.
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/harckham-introduces-bill-requiring-zero-emissions-for-new-vehicles-in-new-york-by-2035

—-
Oil Giant Total Buys London's Largest EV Charging Network
October 9th, 2020
Quote
Source London isn’t just the biggest EV charge point network in London — it accounts for more than half of the city’s charge points. Furthermore, it intends to increase the number of charge points in its network by 10× before the end of 2025. That would mean 16,000, which sounds like a lot until you look at Total’s broader plans. The energy company wants to be operating more than 150,000 electric vehicle charge points across Europe by 2025.
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/09/oil-giant-total-buys-londons-largest-ev-charging-network/amp/

—-
Peek inside Amazon’s newly unveiled electric delivery truck
Quote
The new truck looks good to go, but apparently it’s not quite ready to help out with next week’s mass shopping frenzy that is Amazon Prime Day as the company says it won’t be hitting the road until next year at the earliest.

“The vehicle we’ve developed with Amazon is not just electric,” said RJ Scaringe, CEO of Rivian, which Amazon invested in last year. “We prioritized safety and functionality to create a vehicle that’s optimized for package delivery. We thought through how drivers get in and out of the van, what the workspace feels like and what the work flow is for delivering packages.”
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/peek-inside-amazons-newly-unveiled-electric-delivery-truck/

—-
In the northern latitudes, solar cells on the sides of a truck make even more sense!
Scania to test plug-in hybrid truck trailers with solar panels
Quote
In a pre-study, operations in mid-Sweden were simulated reaching a potential fuel saving of 5–10 percent. In Sweden, there is enough sunlight from spring to autumn to generate energy and although the sun is weak except during summer, there are more hours of sunlight. During the rest of the year, there is insufficient sun in Sweden. By contrast, southern Spain has 80 percent more hours of sunlight.
https://electriccarsreport.com/2020/10/scania-to-test-plug-in-hybrid-truck-trailers-with-solar-panels/
⬇️ Image below.

—-
FuelCell Energy's stock surges toward a 4-day win streak after DOE project award[/size]
Oct. 9, 2020
Quote
Shares of FuelCell Energy Inc. (FCEL) surged 8.4% in premarket trading, putting it on track for a fourth-straight gain, after the fuel cell technology announced a government project award. The stock had run up 26% over the previous three sessions. The company said it was selected by the U.S. Department of Energy for an $8 million funding award to design and make a SureSource electrolysis platform capable of producing hydrogen. "This project represents a key step in FuelCell Energy's path to commercialize its high efficiency solid oxide electrolysis technology," the company said in a statement.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/fuelcell-energys-stock-surges-toward-a-4-day-win-streak-after-doj-project-award/ar-BB19RjMX

—-
Ford appears to have patented a gas range extender for its electric F-150 pickup truck that fits in the truck bed.  Not a promising look for a supposed EV:  https://twitter.com/wisitlike/status/1314572264264945664

Now You Know channel posits that Ford will be bankrupt in four years because it costs more to make its trucks and SUVs than they receive in revenue, and their ICE assets are almost worthless in an EV industry.
Where Will Ford Be in 5 Years? | In Depth - YouTube


—-
Quote
Alex (@alex_avoigt) 10/6/20, 5:49 AM
The former Audi CEO Stadler is now in court
A leading and accused Engineer testified yesterday:
"Everyone knew about it"
"No engineer decides on his own. It was a strategic decision."

< What punishment does he face?
Alex:  10 years of prison.  He is accused of cheating 434k customers but what is not talked about is how many people die(d) earlier and that climate change was accelerated  The Ex CEO Stadler already stated him to be not guilty
< Can’t wait for one of these CEO’s to admit the Oil&Gas Industry was bribing them.
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1313416073316888577

—-
Quote
David Tayar (@davidtayar5) 10/7/20, 7:42 PM
Sports Betting Site Allows Wagers On Tesla, Rivian, Lordstown In Race For First Electric Pickup | BZ Newswire
wuuuuuut?
https://twitter.com/davidtayar5/status/1313988068647596032
⬇️ Text image below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1939 on: October 13, 2020, 06:48:10 PM »
—- Hyundai to recall 77,000 Kona electric cars over risk of battery fire, fights LG Chem over cause
Quote
Hyundai is reportedly preparing to recall 77,000 Kona electric cars worldwide over the risk of a battery fire as the automaker is fighting with LG Chem, the battery supplier, over the cause.

Last summer, a Hyundai Kona EV burst out into flames inside a garage near Montreal in Canada.
Since then, there have been about a dozen more Kona EV fires — prompting investigations into the matter.

In an official investigation into the issue in Korea, Hyundai claimed to have found the problem (via Korea Times):
“During the National Assembly audit on Thursday, Hyundai Motor President Seo Bo-shin, who is in charge of quality control, said the company “admits the defects in vehicles” and “has found a solution” to fix the defects, “though it is not perfect.””
However, different reports are coming to different conclusions.

One is putting the blame on the battery cells while another is concluding that it has to do with the battery pack:
“The ministry said it found “the separator in the battery cell was damaged due to errors in the manufacturing process,” indicating LG Chem’s battery cell could be the cause of fires.

The National Forensic Service also came up with a similar conclusion that “electric problems in battery pack assembly” are assumed to have caused the fires.” 
https://electrek.co/2020/10/12/hyundai-recall-77000-kona-electric-cars-risk-battery-fire-lg-chem/

Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/12/20, 4:12 PM
Someone asked if it’s concerning that Hyundai used LG Chem batteries and Tesla also uses LG Chem cells in China.
Hyundai uses prismatic cells, and Tesla uses cylindrical cells.
So totally different product, production facility, product design, etc.
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1315747076928499713


—- Polestar
Quote
Earl of FrunkPuppy(@28delayslater)10/11/20, 6:16 AM
Polestar CEO: the car is “sufficient” and in the “ballpark of competitive”
;D
This is so sad. He needs to do better. 
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1315234863495012352
2 minute vid clip.  The CEO barely looks at camera; seems embarrassed about his car.  (Admittedly, a distinct change from the energetic rebuttals we hear from most OEM’s trying to put a positive spin on their EV specs.)

—-  ICE-ing in China
Quote
Jay in Shanghai 特斯拉 (@JayinShanghai) 10/9/20, 10:30 AM
Selfish ICE car owners are Ice-ing Tesla owners from Supercharging in China even with the floor lock solution. Any other solution for this? @teslacn
#Tesla #Supercharger #ICEing #China #FirstWorldProblems #特斯啦 #中国 $TSLA
https://twitter.com/jayinshanghai/status/1314573834163544064
15 sec vid: Chinese, parking garage with ICE cars blocking Tesla chargers

Tesla drivers are finding shameless Supercharger ICE treatments in China
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-drivers-china-supercharger-iceing/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1985
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 187
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1940 on: October 13, 2020, 07:50:16 PM »
Interesting that we seem to hear about every single Tesla that bursts into flames, no matter the reason, but a round dozen Kia burst into flames, they have a critical issue and it is quietly dealt with until the recall.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1941 on: October 16, 2020, 10:31:57 PM »
The Transition from ICE to EV

“Trump talked about us keeping our jobs.  Hillary was all about us needing to retrain. I believed Trump. I was a sucker.”
Broken Promises: How Trump Betrayed the Autoworkers of Youngstown, Ohio
Trump made a pledge to the workers of the Lordstown plant that he could save their jobs and their city. Instead, the massive auto plant shuttered and 4,500 were left unemployed
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/lordstown-auto-plant-trump-broken-promises-1073686/
Long-read about autoworkers, from Rolling Stone magazine.  Notable also because latest polls for the November presidential election show Biden and Trump tied in Ohio.


—- Sandy Munro video
The Past, Present, and Future of EV's
➡️https://youtu.be/Vm7l3YxEF8g
22 minutes.  Published on Oct 9, 2020
This video is an "abridged" version of a previous presentation Sandy gave in back in September, 2020.

Sandy:  “It’s not the Big that eat the Small but rather the Fast that eat the Slow.”

   —-
And here’s the (shorter) Steven Mark Ryan version:
Tesla: Ending The ICE Age (w/Sandy Munro)
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hziSw_jr-G8
Quote
◆ In this video I discuss, react to and share my opinions on clips from a recent Munro Live presentation (linked above) featuring #SandyMunro (Sandy Munro is an automotive industry expert with decades of experience) in which Sandy discusses the legacy automotive industry (ICE aka Internal Combustion Engine), #Tesla's (#TSLA) impact and what is needed to transition to EVs (Electric Vehicles).

A major point Sandy Munro makes is that as the big OEMs’ ICE vehicle sales decrease, they (and their suppliers) lose the “economy of scale” they have had at higher volumes. Meaning the cost of each ICE car will increase, at the same time that EVs are becoming cheaper. 

—-
Ford already appears to be making less revenue than it requires to manufacture its cars. As I posted above:
Now You Know channel posits that Ford will be bankrupt in four years because it costs more to make its trucks and SUVs than they receive in revenue, and their ICE assets are almost worthless in an EV industry.
Where Will Ford Be in 5 Years? | In Depth - YouTube
➡️https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Oyi0JD5j-Jw
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1942 on: October 16, 2020, 10:57:12 PM »
Nikola
Quote
stevenmarkryan (@stevenmarkryan)10/16/20, 4:31 PM
$NKLA stock getting rekt after CEO basically says Badger ain't happening.
Allegedly.
Why is anyone surprised?
https://twitter.com/stevenmarkryan/status/1317201520715247618
NKLA closed -15% to $19.54 today.

“We’ve been clear all along that we wouldn’t build a Badger without an OEM partner.”
Nikola CEO Says Startup’s Plans Intact Even If GM Deal Unravels
Thu, October 15, 2020
Quote
GM is eyeing an 11% stake in Nikola as part of a cash-free deal in exchange for providing access to fuel-cell technology and for manufacturing the startup’s electric pickup. Nikola has stopped referring to that vehicle, called the Badger, in its public statements as talks continue with GM ahead of a Dec. 3 deadline.

Russell said Nikola is prepared to drop the truck if it can’t secure an agreement with an original equipment manufacturer like GM.
“The Badger is part of our discussions with GM. And we’ve been clear all along that we wouldn’t build a Badger without an OEM partner,” he said.

The Detroit-based automaker could push to raise its planned stake in Nikola or seek warrants to guarantee or increase its equity if the company raises more money, people familiar with the matter said recently. …
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nikola-ceo-says-startup-plans-003249920.html

——-
Here’s Steven Mark Ryan’s video on the Badger advert Nikola is running wherein Trevor Milton pulls specs out of his ass to claim the truck’s superiority.
Nikola: Is Badger A Fake Truck To MANIPULATE The Stock? (NKLA) - YouTube
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmagRbWkW8c
From the Comments:
< I have no right to request this, but can you end every Nikola video with “Tesla has more production vehicles in space than Nikola has on Earth.”

——
Quote
ALEX:  Why am I not surprised that the CFO of the Nikola-Iveco joint venture in Europe comes from Worthington? $NKLA #NikolaGate
Credit: @FierceBadger420 
https://twitter.com/ajtourville/status/1313882117206691842
(LinkedIn?) Image at the link.

—-
Quote
Bradford (@bradsferguson) 9/29/20, 9:22 AM
Hey $TSLA bulls, remember that crazy bearish call from the Cowen analyst in January prior to $TSLA Q4’19 production and deliveries report?
Turns out the analyst was very conflicted as they had a big check coming from none other than...

Quote
Hindenburg Research (@HindenburgRes)9/29/20, 12:38 AM
Almost 39% of investment bank Cowen’s Q2 operating income was from its investment in $NKLA, according to its quarterly report.
Despite the massive conflict of interest, Cowen has maintained a street high price target of $79/share, insisting it has done its research on management
[Part of a thread from 9/29…]
https://twitter.com/bradsferguson/status/1310933050277199873
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1943 on: October 16, 2020, 11:19:22 PM »
Plug-In Hybrid EV
Ford Escape PHEV Delayed Due To Potential Battery Fires
October 14, 2020
   •   The Ford Kuga, the Escape’s twin, is recalled in Europe for battery fires.
   •   20,500 Kuga units were recalled.
   •   Production of the Escape PHEV delayed until 2021.

Quote
For some southern markets, the new Ford Escape plug-in hybrid will be a very interesting and frugal compact SUV option. As a FWD-only vehicle, the Escape PHEV can deliver up to 30 miles of pure electric mobility but battery issues in Europe will delay deliveries of the vehicle.

The Ford Kuga, the Ford Escape’s twin, is already on sale with plug-in technology in Europe however a recall was issued for the SUV. According to cnn.com, several units of the Kuga PHEV experienced fires prompting the recall. It has also prompted Ford to pause production of the Escape equivalent.

The issue stems from a fault that could cause the battery packs to vent hot gas. The result is an increased risk of fire due to overheating. So far, there have been seven reported fires without injuries or deaths. The affected were assembled between July of 2019 and 2020.

For the moment, Ford says that the production of the Escape PHEV will be pushed back to 2021 without specifying a timeline. Dan Barbossa, a Ford spokesperson, said: “We are moving production to next year while we work with the suppliers to resolve the issue.”
https://motorillustrated.com/ford-escape-phev-delayed-due-to-potential-battery-fires/61561/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1985
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 187
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1944 on: October 18, 2020, 01:43:37 PM »
ID.3 software issues continue.

https://www.carthrottle.com/post/7-things-i-learned-from-a-weekend-with-a-vw-id3/

It is an interesting review which leads you gently into the issues you might have with the £40,000 model on test.

Quote
The infotainment system also isn’t the easiest thing to navigate either, and could do with being more responsive. What’s more, it’s frustrating that a good number of the climate controls are embedded within it.

As it goes on, they start giving more problems.

Quote
The ID.3’s launch was delayed by some well-publicised software issues, and it looks like there are still some faults to iron out. On our first drive, the ‘Mode’ button gave audio feedback but did naff all else, and we also experienced some odd issues with the cruise control.

Yes, well, the mode switch might not be that much of a problem depending on what it is blocking.  But the cruise control?

Quote
On one drive on a 70mph motorway, the ID.3 kept automatically adjusting the adaptive cruise control to 44mph (70kmh). Later, on a 60mph road, it kept trying to put the car down to 37mph (60kmh). It also had a habit of slowing the car down when overtaking lorries.

I would put this kind of fault at alpha test level, nice to see that VW are testing on their customers.

But when you learn the problem....

Quote
This seemed bizarre until we learned the ID.3 has a known software issue which means UK market cars occasionally behave as though they’re being used in a country that drives on the right

OK so tell me if I am getting all bent out of shape over nothing here, but a car of this supposed calibre is actually supposed to be able to work out where it is?? Or at least do as it is told in "dumb" active cruise mode?

But the clincher is how they pass it over with.

Quote
but we do know a fix is coming in January.

We do know that competition for Tesla is not easy, but is this really the level of competition?

What irks me most is that this vehicle with low Highway mileage, 60 miles less than wltp range estimates on average driving and some serious software issues, gets a recommendation as if it were prime vehicle.

Even gnoring the games they are playing with mentioning subsidies and ignoring UK tax costs at certain price points, this vehicle is hardly world shaking.  But customers are going to read these reviews and buy them because the reviewers are not doing a fair comparison.

Is this really the best VW can do?  Not that I had much time for VW cars anyway, but this does not do much to instil any further confidence.

Could you imagine what reviewers would say about Tesla with this level of delivery?
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6301
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2315
  • Likes Given: 1958
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1945 on: October 18, 2020, 04:01:47 PM »
Car magazines and newspaper car sections are beholden to the incumbents and their advertising budgets.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1985
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 187
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1946 on: October 18, 2020, 05:41:09 PM »
I suppose, but it is a bit sad for the consumer though and for the EV market in general if this is the best the competition can muster as a true volume vehicle.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1947 on: October 19, 2020, 10:27:12 PM »
Tony Seba says self-driving AI is improving at double-exponential rates.  Anyone who thinks autonomous transport won’t be widespread until 2030 doesn’t understand this.  The cost of Transport as a Service will be 1/10 the cost of a new car. The automotive fleet will decrease by 80% by 2030 due to economic considerations alone.

Steven Mark Ryan:  “In this video I react to, discuss and share my opinions on clips of a brilliant Tony Seba presentation on disruptive technology and innovation as it applies to the future of transportation (autonomous vehicles -- Transport as a Service). I do this through a Tesla-centric lens.”



Source:  Tony Seba #CleanDisruption @ Robin Hood Investors Conference 2019 RHIC2019
➡️https://youtu.be/6Ud-fPKnj3Q
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1948 on: October 24, 2020, 09:52:06 PM »
Quote
Sam Korus (@skorusARK) 10/6/20, 3:49 PM
When marketing says all in on EV, but engineering doesn't agree.
Sound on
➡️https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/1313566979266142209
[Clip: Mercedes EV Framework built with ability to put an ICE engine in front “as long as we need to”]
Sam Korus:  Their full presentation here: https://t.co/uAB2uzrXix

Sam Korus:  Very simply, Tesla wants to become the best manufacturer in the world and, for the most part, traditional automakers don't want to become the best EV makers in the world.
That seems to sum up a lot of recent EV news, but people don't believe either part.
https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/1313904108542324739

< Volkswagen?
Sam Korus: you've hit the "for the most part"
Sam Korus: this gets into an equally interesting topic of: can a traditional automaker make the best EV?

 —-  GM’s future Hummer EV was revealed this week.
Quote
Sam Korus (@skorusARK) 10/20/20, 8:13 PM
GM Hummer EV tri-motor is $30,000 more expensive than the equivalent Cybertruck and has 200 miles less range.
https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/1318707056875024385

   ——
ALEX (@ajtourville) 10/21/20, 1:32 PM

Hi @mtbarra, how can @GM manufacture the Nikola Badger for $40,000 less than the Hummer EV?  ???
• GM builds Badger for Nikola on a cost-plus model
• Badger & Hummer EV use GM's Ultium batteries
• Badger has better specs than Hummer EV
$NKLA #NikolaGate
https://twitter.com/ajtourville/status/1318968407358930944
At the link:  BroDozer+TrevorMilton ad clip: Badger battery version $60,000, 300 mi range.  Fuel cell $90,000, 600 mi range.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18166
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1949 on: October 24, 2020, 10:14:53 PM »
Quote
Sam Korus (@skorusARK) 10/16/20, 10:57 AM
Imagine having to wait ~4 years to release a better car. Tesla's most recent Model 3 update separates it from the pack even more.
https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/1317117491496235009
⬇️ Bar graph below.

Quote
Sam Korus (@skorusARK) 5/29/19, 10:04 AM
1/ [Efficiency vs Acceleration vs Range] is a good framework for looking at the EV competitive landscape, recognizing the tradeoffs automakers face & understanding how Tesla's verticalization makes it hard to compete with. …   

2/ Efficiency vs Acceleration
You can make a quick car that's inefficient, or a slow car that's quite efficient.
Tesla's battery pack management + in-house power electronics allow it to be both quick and efficient.

Sam Korus (@skorusARK) 5/23/19, 1:37 PM
What it looks like to be in a league of your own #Tesla
Orange dots are Tesla Models, updated with the recent S/X range increase
https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/1131615100878643202
⬇️ 3D scatter graph below
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.