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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #200 on: July 01, 2019, 02:18:16 PM »
U.S.  The “partisan gap” is smaller today than some might think.

May 23, 2019
Voters are bullish on electric vehicles, but there's a partisan gap
https://www.axios.com/electric-vehicle-adoption-partisan-gap-5f77578d-4a63-4d82-8708-08a644b550ca.html
Image below.

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New Twitter poll. It’s by a Tesla bull — but with many retweets and an impressive sample size.

Your next car:
Gasoline/Diesel, or Electric
With 1,667 votes so far (and six days to go) Electric leads with 94%

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1145443176368562176
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #201 on: July 01, 2019, 10:06:23 PM »
Norway market share for electric cars hits 57.8%
https://insideevs.com/news/357526/june-2019-plugin-sales-norway/
Quote
More than 3,000 Tesla Model 3 registered in June drives electric car sales in Norway up by 87%.

June didn't disappoint in Norway as passenger plug-in electric car registrations surged to the second-best result ever of 8,867 (up 11.2% year-over-year).

Market share once again exceeded half and amounted to 57.8%, while diesel was pushed back to 13.5% (16.0% for gasoline and 12.7% for conventional hybrids).

The sales could be way higher, but plug-in hybrids currently are in retreat, at least until new higher-range models will hit the market.

    BEVs: 7,427 (up 87.1%, 48.4% market share) + 567 ‘used’ + 196 vans (182 new and 14 used) + 1 FCVs
    PHEVs: 1,440 (down 64%, 9.4% market share)

With of all things an American car dominating sales.
American car company's have been trying to crack the European market for decades .
Yet when sales success  happens the company responsible gets attacked insistently by the American press.
Why?

Bob Wallace

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #202 on: July 01, 2019, 10:33:34 PM »
Why?  Two reasons that I can think of.

1) Tesla threatens a very large number of industries.  The oil industry, the internal combustion engine industry, the natural gas industry (storage replacing gas peakers and soon CCNG plants), car dealerships, those who drive for a living, taxi companies, and maybe some others.

2) Tesla doesn't pay for advertising in the media.  Oil companies, ICEV manufacturers, and other companies Tesla stands to damage do buy advertising.  Billions and billions of dollars worth every year.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #203 on: July 04, 2019, 03:44:19 PM »
But not Tesla.  ;)

Carmakers Likely Had Worst First Half of Retail Sales Since 2013
Quote
Automakers may have had the worst first half for new-vehicle retail sales since 2013, with deliveries to fleet customers taking some of the sting out of weaker consumer demand.

   •   The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of total sales probably slowed in June to about 17 million cars and light trucks, based on the average estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The rate in June 2018 was 17.3 million.

   •   Retail sales probably fell 2.9% last month and 3.3% in the first half, according to researchers J.D. Power and LMC Automotive, as more consumers get priced out of the new-vehicle market ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-01/preview-u-s-june-auto-sales-retail-demand-continues-to-weaken
Data image below.

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BMW and Daimler team up on automated driving
Quote
BERLIN (Reuters) - Some 1,200 developers at BMW and Daimler will team up to develop automated driving technology, the companies said on Thursday, the latest carmakers forced to pool their development resources at a time of shrinking margins.
...
BMW and Daimler on Thursday said they had finalised the agreement and that they expected the technology to be deployed in mass-market vehicles from 2024.
Earlier this year, BMW and Daimler, Germany’s two biggest carmakers after Volkswagen, both issued profit warnings earlier this year.

Facing headwinds from international trade conflicts and narrowing margins due to tougher emissions legislation, carmakers are being driven to team up by the massive development costs of key technologies in which they face competition from internet giants like Alphabet’s Waymo.
Europe’s biggest carmaker Volkswagen and Ford are in the final stage of talks on a strategic alliance to jointly develop self-driving and electric cars. Newspaper Handelsblatt said the deal was set to be approved on July 11.

In May, Renault and Italian-American group Fiat Chrysler Automobiles announced they were in merger talks, but discussions were later called off.

Daimler issued a profit warning in June - its third in 12 months - saying it was setting aside hundreds of millions of euros to cover a regulatory crackdown on diesel emissions.

In May, BMW warned on profits, saying it had had to make larger investments than expected.
The two companies said their cooperation was non-exclusive, with results being made available to other licensed original equipment manufacturers.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bmw-daimler-cooperation-idUSKCN1TZ0QH
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magnamentis

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #204 on: July 04, 2019, 11:08:19 PM »
BMW has announce a fuel-cell SUV today. apparently they have joined forces with Toyota
in form of tech-joint-venture as they did the sayme for the new supra already.

this is a promising team-up IMO and a promising announcement because as stated earlier,
fuel-cell-tech beats battery only tech by far and i'm happy to see that fuel-cell-tech is not dead.

oren

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #205 on: July 04, 2019, 11:21:17 PM »
My opinion of fuel-cell tech vs battery tech is completely opposite, I think this is a mistake by BMW. But time will tell.

rboyd

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #206 on: July 05, 2019, 02:59:23 AM »
Like VHS vs Betamax when VHS has already won?

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #207 on: July 05, 2019, 03:09:17 AM »
http://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2016/12/battery-vs-fuel-cell-electric-vehicles/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIu-XcoMqc4wIV4bftCh2sNATpEAAYASAAEgJXnfD_BwE

Backs up your position Oren. It hits all the bases of my issues. Cost and availability of fuelling stations v electric charging stations.  Also significantly less efficient.

The only thing fuel cell has going for it is speed of fuelling.  Not insignificant, but, also, not a big enough differentiator to make mass market.
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magnamentis

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #208 on: July 05, 2019, 03:25:32 AM »
Like VHS vs Betamax when VHS has already won?

your wording is unmasking. "has won" ike if it wold be about who or what wins.
this competition thinking is limited human minds the way that once they have chosen
sides they get blind and tunnel sighted.

either way, what you're saying is a huge error but i'll come back to this in a few years once it became obvious and common knowledge. battery driven cars have not future, it's a transition technology that will last nowhere close like past technologies did. the next future is hydrogen related technology and the very long-term technology is in one or another way fusion/nuclear while with nuclear i don't mean the tech currently used in power plants.

of course i won't discuss this further with biased people who make such cheap remarks like the one you just made, arrrogant, shortsighted and will be proven wrong during our lifetime.

sidd

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #209 on: July 05, 2019, 08:07:39 AM »
Re: fusion

Fusion is best kept under gravitational confinement at a distance of 8 light minutes.

Fusion on this earth is twenty years away. And always has been ...

sidd

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #210 on: July 05, 2019, 08:28:32 AM »
Like VHS vs Betamax when VHS has already won?
like if it would be about who or what wins.

Of course it about that. What else?

Who will buy a BEV if there are no public chargers?

Who will buy a fuel-cell car when there are no filling stations.

Of course, it matters which technology becomes mainstream.

So RBoyd is actually very on point and not at all biased. It's an observation made in the real world.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #211 on: July 05, 2019, 09:37:56 AM »
Who will buy a BEV if there are no public chargers?

Every house in the developed world has a bloody charger .
I even have some and I live off grid.
You may have heard of them they are  called an electrical outlet wot you put an electrical  plug into.
I know many live in apartments in other places.
Still the infrastructure of the electrical grid  is already within meters of almost every parking space a car inhibits.
 For daily use you do not need high amp charging you just need enough to do your next days mileage. Once uptake becomes significant  you will see near universal outlets as you see street lamps now. Charging and billing data can be fed down the same wire as the power is and once enough volume is met the cost of suitable hardware  would be a few bucks per outlet.Even in the USA with their pathetic 110volt supply near universal charging opportunity's is easy doable.

As to hydrogen.
The nonnegotiable laws of physics makes it a loser .
Too much loss between  the source of energy and the end use to compete with batteries .
 

gerontocrat

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #212 on: July 05, 2019, 11:59:31 AM »
Much to my amazement, Jaguar Landrover are building the next lot of EVs in the UK, despite Brexit!

And not blah blah! Work starts this month.

https://media.jaguarlandrover.com/news/2019/07/jaguar-land-rover-accelerates-electrification

Quote
EMBARGO: 0830 BST, 5 JULY 2019
JAGUAR LAND ROVER ACCELERATES ELECTRIFICATION:
- RANGE OF NEW ELECTRIFIED MODELS TO BE BUILT IN THE UK
- COMPANY CALLS FOR UK GIGA-SCALE BATTERY PRODUCTION PLANT
● Jaguar Land Rover to build range of new electrified cars in the UK, safeguarding thousands of jobs
● First vehicle confirmed as the next-generation all-electric Jaguar XJ
● Company calls for a giga-scale battery production plant in the UK to put the country at leading edge of electric mobility
● UK electric vehicle production is the next step in Jaguar Land Rover’s electrification strategy
● Announcement comes as last of the current XJ, Jaguar’s flagship saloon, rolls off production line today
Friday 5th July 2019, Castle Bromwich, UK: Jaguar Land Rover today revealed plans to manufacture a range of new electrified vehicles at its manufacturing plant in Castle Bromwich, UK. The announcement is the next significant step in delivering on the company’s commitment to offer customers electrified options for all new Jaguar and Land Rover models from 2020.
Prof. Dr. Ralf Speth, Chief Executive Officer of Jaguar Land Rover, said: “The future of mobility is electric and, as a visionary British company, we are committed to making our next generation of zero-emission vehicles in the UK.

Pretty picture attached. Tesla - you are going down ! ?
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #213 on: July 05, 2019, 02:10:22 PM »


Pretty picture attached. Tesla - you are going down ! ?

Clearly, Jaguar has an unassailable lead in marketing artwork.

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #214 on: July 05, 2019, 02:41:28 PM »
Much to my amazement, Jaguar Landrover are building the next lot of EVs in the UK, despite Brexit!

Not that much to my amazement.  JLR is the largest single producer of "cars" manufactured in the UK (  It seems LandRovers are in the car category),  At 30% of passenger cars.

Jaguar sold 38,515 cars to the UK market which was the single largest market by country.  The remaining 27 EU countries at 49,474 hardly exceeded the UK.  The US was slightly smaller than the UK, but if you put the non EU sales against the EU sales, you come out with around 130,000 of the 180,000 vehicles sold.  When calculating Brexit, the non EU market is considered to be the least likely to fluctuate and the most likely to benefit from a preferential trade deal.

JLR, together, manufactured around 450,000 of their 600,000 world sales, in the UK.

With US trade wars going on, it would be insanity for JLR to locate itself anywhere else right now for EV R&D and production.  The UK is also a Major R&D hub for the vehicle manufacturing world.

Brexit, for JLR?  Important, but not a core business. 

Put all of that together and you get JLR building their EV centre in the UK.  For now....
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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #215 on: July 05, 2019, 02:43:04 PM »


Pretty picture attached. Tesla - you are going down ! ?

Clearly, Jaguar has an unassailable lead in marketing artwork.

Especially as, by the end of 2020, Tesla will be producing more vehicles than JLR and ALL of them will be EV's.  Which is an interesting thought.
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rboyd

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #216 on: July 05, 2019, 06:18:02 PM »
Post-Brexit, the British Pound may be a lot lower, making for a cheaper manufacturing base for Jaguars and Land Rovers. Interesting that they seem to be going full steam ahead on BEVs.

Nice to see the British, sorry Indian, car industry making better decisions than the German and Japanese car industries for a change. Jags and Land Rovers are such "British" marques that it could cause a lot of marketing problems not to have them made in Britain. Same would go for the BMW Mini brand.

Have to look more at Tata Motors overall plans, as there is a huge possible market for small electric cars in India. JLR could serve as a high end testing ground for technology that could then be used in Tata's smaller cars.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #217 on: July 06, 2019, 12:33:22 AM »
Big Auto is imploding. :o :o :o

Friday, 05.07.2019 12:15
Quote
BMW CEO Harald Krüger resigns.   Among other things, Krüger is accused of too hesitant conversion to electromobility.

BMW-Chef Harald Krüger will Vertrag nicht verlängern - SPIEGEL ONLINE
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/bmw-chef-harald-krueger-will-vertrag-nicht-verlaengern-a-1275961.html

BMW’s next CEO could revive an electric car initiative amid assault from EVs like Tesla
https://www.teslarati.com/bmw-new-ceo-could-revive-evs-amid-tesla-model-3-assault/

——-
Quote
Tesla New York (@TeslaNY) 5/4/19, 2:26 PM
#Audi U.S. chief Del Rosso resigns “Audi's U.S. sales fell 21% in April... This year's sales are down 8.7% through April...” autonews.com/executives/aud…
https://twitter.com/teslany/status/1124741996411793408

——-
Quote
Tesla New York (@TeslaNY) 5/16/19, 10:05 PM
#Mercedes-Benz USA chief Exler is stepping down  autonews.com/executives/mer… $TSLA #EV #Daimler
https://twitter.com/teslany/status/1129206368945225730

——-
Quote
Tesla New York (@TeslaNY) 5/17/19, 2:11 PM
Masuko to Step Down as #Mitsubishi Motors CEO
 “Partners #Nissan & #Renault are meanwhile grappling with the fallout from arrest of Carlos Ghosn, group’s former chairman,” reuters.com/article/us-mit…
https://twitter.com/teslany/status/1129449273475706881
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #218 on: July 06, 2019, 12:41:44 AM »
With relief drivers.  Sponsored by Ionity, whose chargers are faster than most EU superchargers right now.

Tesla YouTuber Bjørn Nyland breaks 24-hour electric car distance record — 2,781km
 Jul. 5th 2019 4:29 pm ET
Quote
A common refrain about electric cars is that they’re fine for city driving but can’t do road trips.  This has been disproven many times, and Tesla owners in particular have an easy time on road trips due to Tesla’s excellent Supercharger network.

But today we’ve seen yet another reason not to worry about the capability to take EVs on long trips, as Bjørn Nyland has managed to drive 2,781km (1,728mi) in 24 hours in a Tesla Model 3 Long Range AWD.  Nyland set this record on IONITY quick chargers in Germany because currently, that network is significantly faster than Tesla’s Superchargers.
...
Nyland wanted to emphasize that this record could be done in “realistic” conditions, so there was no closed course and common road rules were followed.  The record was set in Germany, on the Autobahn, and was done at high speeds, around 170km/h (105mph) much of the time.

Staying at high speeds inbetween stops resulted in an average speed of 115km/h or 72mph over the entire 24 hours.  Essentially, he was able to travel the same distance as if he drove at US highway speeds consistently for 24 hours without stopping at all.

It was also raining for a portion of the drive, which reduces efficiency by increasing rolling resistance between the tires and the road.  Nyland rotated between several drivers during the 24 hours and livestreamed it on his YouTube channel.

Nyland focused on driving quickly and charging only up to 50% or so, in order to keep charge rates as fast as possible.  Most EV quick chargers “taper” at high state-of-charge, such that charging rates slow down as the battery gets more full.  For faster road tripping, it’s better to leave before your battery gets completely full. …
https://electrek.co/2019/07/05/tesla-youtuber-breaks-24-hour-electric-car-distance-record/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #219 on: July 06, 2019, 12:48:41 AM »
Reference.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #220 on: July 06, 2019, 03:19:34 AM »
US Plug-In Electric Car Sales Charted: June 2019
In June, plug-in electric car sales in the U.S. significantly accelerated as InsideEVs data shows 37,818 sales (confirmed or estimated), which is 51% more than a year ago.

Market share finally went up to roughly 2.5%.
Total sales after six months are close to 149,000 at an average 1.8% market share.
https://insideevs.com/news/358222/us-plug-in-electric-sales-charted-june-2019/

45% of all plug-ins sold so far this year in U.S. are Tesla Model 3.

Table is from:  https://insideevs.com/news/357565/ev-sales-scorecard-june-2019/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #221 on: July 06, 2019, 07:16:06 PM »
Examining EV efficiency versus ICE legacy liabilities. (Compilation of a Twitter thread.)
Quote
With economics increasingly favouring EVs, we can expect ICE sales to shrink, which means that the current massive Inventories of finished cars need to shrink, potentially causing significant discounting coupled with a severe contraction in production . . .

. . . and the resale values and demand for used ICE vehicles are likely to decline, much like has happened in other industries as obsolescence begins to change consumers’ demand patterns. ...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1143536549465743360.html
More images at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #222 on: July 07, 2019, 02:14:05 PM »
U.S. light vehicle sales continue to sink in Q2.

Notes:
Numbers in the chart are US sales, not global.  Correction to the chart: The only standout, Tesla Q2 was ~54,000 cars delivered in U.S. (per Inside EVs), not 30,000!  (And 6 months ~80,000.)
Tesla pickup truck, to be revealed late this summer, will start at $49,000 per Elon Musk.


Carmageddon Continues: New Vehicle Sales Plunge To "Horribly Mature" 1999 Levels
Quote
The auto industry continues to look like a bursting bubble in progress and all around sad state of affairs, despite low rates and the "prosperity" of the stock market hitting new all time highs. Meanwhile, under the surface of those numbers, the actual economy - especially in autos - is telling a different story.

New vehicle deliveries, combining fleet sales and retail sales, were down 1.5% in Q2 to 4.5 million vehicles, according to Wolf Street.

For the first half of the year, vehicle deliveries fell 2.4% to 8.4 million vehicles. This puts the pace for new vehicle sales on track to fall below 17 million for the year, which would be the worst level since 2014. Further, it has lowered estimates for the full year to 16.95 million units delivered, on par with a “horribly mature market" in 1999. In addition to a struggling consumer, these lowered estimates are also result of rising interest rates and competition from off-lease vehicles.
This has resulted, simply, in fewer customers splurging on new cars.

As we noted on Friday morning, it’s likely Ford and General Motors are breaking a sweat after the latest slate of economic data hit the wires. Though its overall truck sales held up, those of Ford’s signature F-Series pickup truck fell over last year in June. GM was not as fortunate with sales of its Silverado and Sierra trucks down, especially on the heavy-duty side of the line-up. With the caveat that fleet sales can indeed be trucks and comprised 24% of Fiat Chrysler’s June sales, Ram pickups were nonetheless the standout as a fresh redesign and fat incentives drove sales up over 2018.

Ford's sales fell 4.1% in Q2. Car sales at Ford plunged another 21.4% to just 110,195 units, as customers continue to favor new pick up trucks, SUVs and vans instead. Truck sales rose 7.5% but F-series pickups fell 1.3%, cannibalized by Ford's midsized pick up, the Ranger. However, even the company's SUV sales look ugly – they fell 8.6% to 215,898 units.

According to newly released data on Friday, Ford also posted an abysmal quarter in China, selling a total of 154,042 vehicles in the second quarter, a 21.7% decrease compared to the same period last year.

General Motors saw sales fall 1.5% in Q2 after plunging 7% in Q1. Fiat Chrysler sales fell 0.5% in Q2 and the company announced that it will abandon reporting deliveries on a monthly basis, following in the footsteps of Ford and GM. Here’s a better look at Q2 numbers for most auto makers:

No matter how you look at it, 2019 has been ugly:
   •   Year to date, Toyota Motor sales are down 3.1% to 1,152,108 vehicles.
   •   Year to date, Honda Motor sales have fallen 1.4% to 776,995 vehicles.
   •   Year to date, Nissan sales are down 8.2% to 717,036 vehicles.
   •   Year to date, Fiat Chrysler sales are down 2% to 1,096,110 vehicles.
   •   Year to date, total GM auto sales in the U.S. are down 4.2% to 1,412,499.
   •   Over the first half of 2019, total Ford sales are down 2.9% to 1,240,585.

To try and continue capitalizing on truck demand, automakers are flooding the market "with efficient and restructured versions of pickup trucks". And the industry - not unlike most market participants across all sectors in general - is hoping for help from the Fed. A rate cut this summer could help drive more business to dealerships heading into the middle of the third quarter.

Recall, we reported just days ago that more than 25% of June's 41,977 announced job cuts came in the automotive industry, according to Managing Economist for Refinitiv Jeoff Hall. Hall commented on Twitter that the industry's 10,904 redundancies were the most in seven months and the second most in seven years.

Hall also noted that excluding autos, there were only 31,073 job cuts in June, the fewest in 11 months, in low-normal range.

About a month ago we focused on layoffs in the auto industry, noting that China, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada and the United States have all seen at least 38,000 job cuts over the last six months.  Recall, at the beginning of June we noted that Bank of America had said that "the auto cycle had peaked".

While Bank of America attributed much of the downturn in the manufacturing sector to the ongoing trade war, it singled out the automotive industry as a specific area for concern. Calling the problem a "classic story of demand/supply mismatch", the bank pointed out that producers continue to ramp up output at a time when demand has softened. It’s easy to see in the two following charts – one showing auto sales topping out and the other showing output and production not falling.
The note showed that total auto sales have appeared to peak:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-05/carmageddon-continues-new-vehicle-sales-plunge-horribly-mature-1999-levels
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #223 on: July 07, 2019, 04:08:06 PM »
Top ten reasons NOT to buy an electric vehicle (and why each one is wrong!)


magnamentis

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #224 on: July 07, 2019, 06:26:43 PM »
Top ten reasons NOT to buy an electric vehicle (and why each one is wrong!)


yep nothing to add, this is how it is by now ;)


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #225 on: July 07, 2019, 06:44:24 PM »
yep nothing to add, this is how it is by now ;)

This guy is great. You really can recommend every single video.

And he is becoming kind of a video artist on the way as it seems.

magnamentis

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #226 on: July 07, 2019, 06:50:48 PM »
yep nothing to add, this is how it is by now ;)

This guy is great. You really can recommend every single video.

And he is becoming kind of a video artist on the way as it seems.

yep and that adds to it great time, he is really good, no non-sense and spot on with all i've seen by now, a real pleasure indeed. 100% +1

KiwiGriff

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #227 on: July 07, 2019, 11:01:29 PM »
The economy goes in cycles.
Every seven or so years we have a global rescission.
We are overdue for one.
At present the USA fracking boom is running at a loss and eating huge amounts of finance to do so.
My prediction is some time in the next five years the bubble that is fracking will burst resulting in a global recession and oil prices skyrocketing.
When that happens the American company's that are focused on making big lazy trucks will go bust .
When the economy contracts people start cutting unneeded expenses. Running a large gas guzzling truck or SUV is a luxury not a need for most.
Ford, Chrysler and GM are zombies betting on the present cheap oil lasting forever.
 

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #228 on: July 08, 2019, 02:30:55 AM »
yep nothing to add, this is how it is by now ;)

This guy is great. You really can recommend every single video.

And he is becoming kind of a video artist on the way as it seems.

Huge amount of truth in what he says, but there are so many holes in all the reasoning that you wind up with more hope than reality.

Playing devil's advocate, the grid is transitioning to renewable, but it is not adding new capacity, it is replacing what is there. Reality, in the UK, today, is that the deep winter power supply is touching 95% utilised most of the time.  At peak it goes over 100% and we have to suck power in.

Great, V2G is a fantastic idea, but when they, later, say, we'll if you don't have a drive, then you will have to just fill up when out, derails both the V2G argument and the cheap night time argument.

There was far too much "there will be" for someone buying today.

The intention is good but, for someone who is not already convinced, it falls far short of a compelling argument.

It will get better, but EV is for the long haul and to move people forward requires a lot more "there is" and a lot less "there will be".

Good effort though
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #229 on: July 08, 2019, 03:26:22 AM »
Quote
... There was far too much "there will be" for someone buying today.

The intention is good but, for someone who is not already convinced, it falls far short of a compelling argument. ...

Last year, over 2 million plug-in vehicle buyers were convinced that “there is now.”  The video does not have to convince everyone immediately; the rate of EV adoption — and production! — are climbing the new-tech S-curve together.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #230 on: July 08, 2019, 03:48:31 AM »
Canada:  In seven weeks, 8,800 EV rebate requests were received — close to half of what would be the annual share of the $300-million pot allotted for 2019-22.

B.C., Quebec electric-car buyers guzzle federal rebates
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-quebec-electric-car-buyers-guzzle-federal-rebates

The take-home message:  Don’t wait.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #231 on: July 08, 2019, 08:44:45 AM »
but it is not adding new capacity

That's an assumption based on what?

Quote
At peak it goes over 100% and we have to suck power in.

Perfect time to charge an EV.

Quote
Great, V2G is a fantastic idea, but when they, later, say, we'll if you don't have a drive, then you will have to just fill up when out, derails both the V2G argument and the cheap night time argument.

Happens to me all the time. I wake up in the middle of the night and want to drive 400km. I hate it when it happens. And then my car might be empty. I hate this future. /s

Quote
There was far too much "there will be" for someone buying today.

Say, you have a 10yo car. Would you buy a brand new ICE car now, or go for 2 more years with that one and buy an EV later?

For me it's a no-brainer.

Quote
The intention is good but, for someone who is not already convinced, it falls far short of a compelling argument.

Then don't buy an EV. What's the problem? When you are the last person driving an ICE car, the rest of the world will follow the EV revolution.

Quote
It will get better, but EV is for the long haul and to move people forward requires a lot more "there is" and a lot less "there will be".

I have news for you, Neil, the world is changing. You can either watch that changes happen or can choose to deny them. You have chosen the later and that makes your brain find very weird arguments to maintain your worldview.

Will everything turn out exactly as we think today? Hell no!

Will the EV revolution happen anyway? Of course!

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #232 on: July 08, 2019, 06:01:52 PM »
Who Wants to Kill the Electric Car This Time?
The Koch brothers hope it will be them


Quote
IN FEBRUARY, Senator John Barrasso, a Wyoming Republican who chairs the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, introduced a bill to end the federal tax credit for plug-in electric vehicles and establish a new annual "highway user fee" for all "alternative fuel vehicles." If the bill becomes law, these provisions of the Fairness for Every Driver Act would check off two high-priority boxes on the policy wish list of Charles and David Koch, the billionaire petrochemical barons who have built a fortune on the transport and refining of fossil fuels. And this is no coincidence.

Barrasso is the third-highest recipient of campaign donations from Koch Industries, and in remarks on the Senate floor as well as in an op-ed published on the Fox News website, he cited figures from reports funded by the Koch brothers and their donor network. Speaking in the Senate, Barrasso said that the EV program "disproportionately subsidizes wealthy buyers" and that "hard-working Wyoming taxpayers shouldn't have to subsidize wealthy California luxury-car buyers." In effect, Barrasso justified the bill almost entirely with arguments—many misleading, some demonstrably false—tested and refined for years by Koch-affiliated think tanks, advocacy groups, and astroturfing operations.

Bold part also constantly observed on this forum!

Woot, forgot to add the link >> https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/2019-4-july-august/feature/who-wants-kill-electric-car-time-koch-brothers
« Last Edit: July 08, 2019, 06:40:42 PM by b_lumenkraft »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #233 on: July 08, 2019, 06:34:35 PM »
B_,
You've reminded me of my former (now retired, politically very conservative) supervisor who said in 2003 that Prius hybrid technology was 'un-tested' so he wouldn't consider getting one.  That year I bought a used (2002) Prius that I drive to this day (approaching 150,000 miles - over 242,000 km).  Ten years later he still didn't have a hybrid vehicle.

Years ago, after my telling this story (without the mileage aside), a Christian friend asked me, "Do you want to be the first person to do good, or be the last person to do good?" 

As I've learned on these threads, and elsewhere, "What is 'good'?" can be a challenging question.  Do I buy an EV, or do I continue to drive what I have.  The "just don't drive" or "bicycle" options would be 'good', but would require moving.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #234 on: July 08, 2019, 06:53:42 PM »
As I've learned on these threads, and elsewhere, "What is 'good'?" can be a challenging question.  Do I buy an EV, or do I continue to drive what I have.  The "just don't drive" or "bicycle" options would be 'good', but would require moving.

Well, the production of a new car emits a lot of CO2.

I'd consider everything that brings your net CO2 emission down as 'good'.

This means everyone has to calculate, what am i emitting, and how does this method of transport fit into my personal CO2 budget.

In your case that would be like 30t CO2 divided by 17 years equals 1.76t CO2 for the production of the car in your yearly CO2 footprint without driving.

Ergo: A car should be something that's not broken after 10-15 years. It should work for like 25-30 years to have a reasonable CO2 footprint.

I think EVs have the potential to hold for so long. We'll see.



Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #235 on: July 08, 2019, 07:08:04 PM »
Volkswagen finds itself having to pressure battery suppliers to commit to electric cars

“We have not been able to build as many cars as we wanted to. Our supplier is not delivering the numbers that we need.”

Quote
Volkswagen has long-term contracts with a number of battery suppliers as the company starts its massive push into electric cars, but it’s finding those suppliers need a little extra convincing when it comes to the potential of manufacturing batteries for its EVs.

VW has identified a need to create joint ventures and offer financial help to its battery suppliers as it moves forward. As Volkswagen board member Stefan Sommer told Reuters, “Not every supplier is convinced that electric mobility will come on such a large scale. You need to spend more time convincing them to invest in the auto industry.”

While the carmaker announced just a few weeks ago that it has secured the necessary contracts for the first few years of its production ramp-up, it hasn’t been smooth sailing with all of its partners.  Supplier LG Chem reportedly threatened to cut its battery supply to VW over its proposed gigafactory plans with an other supplier, SK Innovation. LG Chem later sued SK Innovation over the alleged theft of battery trade secrets.

VW has also run into issues with supplier Samsung, which apparently can’t deliver on most of its promised supply. As Sommer said to Reuters, “These producers need to prioritize between making a new smartphone or building a new battery factory. So even the battery cell producers are asking: will production volumes scale up quickly?”
...
https://electrek.co/2019/07/08/vw-battery-suppliers-commit/
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #236 on: July 08, 2019, 11:28:47 PM »
Toyota to Test Solar Panels for Electric Cars
https://techxplore.com/news/2019-07-toyota-solar-panels-electric-cars.html



Toyota has ambitions over the concept and is to start testing an onboard solar recharging system where the hood, the roof, and back are covered with cells. The solar roof can charge while the car is on the move.

... "The new system will provide up to 44.5 km (27.7 miles) of additional range per day while parked and soaking up sun, and can add up to 56.3 km (35 miles) of power to both the driving system and the auxiliary power battery on board, which runs the AC, navigation and more."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #237 on: July 09, 2019, 06:20:53 AM »
Sion and Lightyear way ahead.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #238 on: July 09, 2019, 07:57:43 AM »
Government Here in NZ has just  released a policy document proposing rebates for the purchase of electric and fuel efficient vehicles funded by a surcharge on gas guzzlers to start the transition of our vehicle fleet to carbon neutrality.
The plan – which is designed to revenue neutral, costing taxpayers nothing – would add a range of fees or subsidies.

It would mean about $8000 off the price of new or near-new imported electric vehicles (EVs). Fuel-efficient petrol cars would also be cheaper, while the heaviest-polluters would cost $3000 more. Vehicles with middling fuel efficiency would face neither a discount nor a fee.

The scheme would cover all new and used light vehicles coming into the country. It would not apply to cars already on New Zealand roads.

A new fuel efficiency standard would also be introduced, requiring importers to gradually reduce the average emissions of the vehicles they bring in.

The rebate is limited to cars under $80,000 kiwis so the Tesla 3 standard plus just scraps in at $75,000NZ.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #239 on: July 09, 2019, 09:03:12 PM »
but it is not adding new capacity

That's an assumption based on what?

It is not very difficult to understand, you just need to be interested.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-electricity-generation-2018-falls-to-lowest-since-1994

I find the assertion that the time to charge 1m EV's is when we have no capacity to charge them, somewhat bizarre.  It tends to reduce the overall position quite a bit.

UK power generation is poorly suited to a massive switch from FF energy use in vehicles onto the National grid.  It is something I will watch with interest.

For your further interest, EV's are reducing range, before refuelling, back to mid 1960's levels.  When the UK had over 40,000 filling stations as opposed to the 8,000 or so that we have today.  Never mind the fact that there were around 8 million private and light goods vehicles on the road then and there are nearly 30 million today.  Then there is the time factor.  5 minutes or so to fuel a vehicle enough for 500 miles as opposed to 20 minutes (minimum) for EV to add between 200 and 300.

The entire situation extrapolates to millions of outlets required with motorway services needing to go from around two dozen to two hundred.

I love the move to EV, but blowing off serious issues as "we'll get there sometime soon", as a good reason for buying now, is not a winning stance.

You only have to look at Norway and the 50% uptake in Oslo, where the biggest EV issue is finding a free charger.

Then you have to look at the new Mini, which has a range between 145 miles and less than 200 miles. It has been slammed as a first gen EV pretending to compete with emerging 3rd gen EV's.

Nothing wrong with optimism.  Being foolishly so is another matter.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #240 on: July 09, 2019, 09:22:14 PM »
Neil, you have just shown, with a lot of false assumptions though but shown, that production follows demand.

Seriously, you have a tendency to make a drama off of the banalest things.

If there is more demand due to EVs you can build more wind turbines, install more solar. What is the problem? We are living in capitalism where everything is about growth. Since we can think everything is growing, but when it comes to renewables, you suddenly completely forget everything you know about economics and can't possibly believe there could be growth?

Even if 100% of cars are EVs, you need 20% more electric production. How is this 20% ramp-up within 10-15 years so absolutely unthinkable for you?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #241 on: July 13, 2019, 02:04:52 AM »
Emissions rules, EV shift will spur car engine mergers and acquisitions
More than 120 plants make combustion engine components in Europe alone
Quote
FRANKFURT/DETROIT — A growing understanding in the car industry of the value of combustion engine technology able to meet new anti-pollution requirements is likely to fuel a wave of consolidation in the next two years, industry executives and bankers say.

Mergers and acquisitions have been stuck in a rut since Volkswagen was caught cheating pollution tests in 2015, triggering a global tightening of emissions regulations that depressed the value of petrol and diesel technologies.

The auto industry has all but stopped developing next-generation combustion engines as limited resources are directed towards building electric and self-driving cars.

Meanwhile, as production capacity of petrol and diesel engines is cut back, the impetus for mergers among suppliers should increase, bankers believe.

Germany's Volkswagen, one of the largest manufacturers of petrol and diesel engines, has said it will develop its final generation of combustion engines by 2026, while U.S. rival Ford last month said it would close two engine factories in Europe.

"The profit pool of companies with combustion engine-related technology – once the envy of the industry – is shrinking with the rise of electric vehicles and the digitisation of the industry," Goldman Sachs managing director Axel Hoefer said.

"You would expect someone to come in and consolidate to benefit from economies of scale."

Volkswagen is now warning its suppliers to prepare industry-wide solutions for winding down combustion-engine manufacturing as it ramps up mass production of electric vehicles.

The company is retooling 16 factories to build electric vehicles and plans to start producing 33 different electric cars under the Skoda, Audi, VW and Seat brands by mid-2023, transforming the industry's supply chain.

"It makes no sense to have factories running at only 40% capacity," Stefan Sommer, Volkswagen's procurement head, told Reuters. "The autoindustry is obliged to develop structures to consolidate combustion engine assets, to decide where to bundle certain activities."

"If we end up with uncontrolled insolvencies, it will be a problem for the industry," he said.

The sale of Germany's closely-held Ifa Group, a maker of shafts mainly used in combustion engine-powered cars, was announced a year ago, but never got over the finishing line. Among the few suitors was China's Wanxiang, but differences on pricing proved insurmountable, people close to the talks said.
"The main problem is that buyers' and sellers' price expectations don't match," KPMG partner Juergen Schlangenotto said.

"A seller typically says: I have a robust order book and good margins so I want a valuation of 6 times EBITDA (annual core earnings), while a buyer says there’s no long-term growth so I am paying 4 times."
...
https://www.autoblog.com/amp/2019/07/09/emissions-rules-ev-shift-will-spur-car-engine-mergers-and-acquisitions/
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #242 on: July 13, 2019, 07:39:39 AM »
Very interesting talk on how doomed the legacy car industry really is. Hint: Pretty doomed.


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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #243 on: July 13, 2019, 12:13:07 PM »
Neil, you have just shown, with a lot of false assumptions though but shown, that production follows demand.

Yes it does.  Absolutely.  It takes decades to ramp up the capacity of a national grid and we have been ramping it down for decades.  Our transition to renewable has been in that mould where we have removed Coal and replaced it with renewable energy at a lower capacity.

I am forgetting nothing.

I am fully aware that in order to have a smooth transition to electrically fuelled vehicles, someone needs to be planning for the long term on the infrastructure.

Otherwise the public will vote in governments that roll back on the progress we have already achieved.

I am not saying we can't, absolutely not.  What I am saying is that we are not and it is the consumer who will suffer.

You talk about wind and solar as if it is the fix for everything! So, tell me, please do, just how you are going to charge all those short range EV batteries at night when the country is experiencing virtually no wind power generation, for a Week?

Right now the best potential storage facility for over produced renewable is hydrogen but that is not really on anybodies radar.

You cannot just tell me that supply follows demand when the basis of that supply is not feasible at our current level of maturity.

For charging points, we will have to roll out multiple gigawatt power supplies to motorway service stations, car parks and companies who use fleet vehicles.  Literally millions of points with rapid and extensive extension of the grid. The infrastructure doesn't exist and to make it exist will take a few trillion € EU wide.  All for a transport network which will return less revenue to governments and less profits than current FF.

All of that needs to be addressed before we can even think about moving more than 30% of our existing vehicles on the road to EV.

I do not see it happening on that scale. The work is simply not in progress.

Supply may follow demand, but if you cannot charge your vehicle to get to work, then you are not going to demand.

Public perception is a very fragile thing and charging forward without an integrated plan will not help with that. It is great for initial production of the solution, but after that, it requires state level action and the states are not acting.  Not yet.

We are not in the situation with AGW where we can afford to make simple basic mistakes which slow or stop the transition from FF vehicles.

One of my daughters was considering an EV.  I discussed the pro's and con's with her and sent her off to do some research.  She cannot charge at home, it is not possible, she cannot charge at work, there is no infrastructure there. She cannot charge at the local supermarket because there are no points, she would have to charge twice a day (for her chosen 114 mile EV) and she goes to the supermarket once a week. Charging Infrastructure on the way to work? 5 chargers, one half way, one 3/4 of the way and three within 5 miles of work.  All 7kw or less.

So my daughter would have to take about 4 hours out of her day, every working day, to get the Benefit of an EV.

Demand just died!  She bought a Ford Eco Sport, 660 mile range, fills up once a week in 5 minutes.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #244 on: July 13, 2019, 12:18:22 PM »
Reality is a bitch but it is reality.

Especially if you're not serious about AGW.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #245 on: July 13, 2019, 02:18:26 PM »

One of my daughters was considering an EV.  I discussed the pro's and con's with her and sent her off to do some research....

Did her “research” include finding a local EV group, seeing how they manage obstacles such as yours, and asking for help?
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #246 on: July 13, 2019, 03:50:03 PM »
A 114 mile EV is mostly only useful for city dwellers/short commuters that can charge at home or at work. What could serve your daughter's needs is a Tesla M3 LR, with 325 mile of range and the ability  use Tesla superchargers, if they exist near her commute. Of course, it's quite expensive.
But being unable to charge both at home and at work is indeed a big downside when considering an EV.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #247 on: July 13, 2019, 05:43:08 PM »
Over half of new cars purchased in the U.K. are “company cars.”
U.K.:  Electric vehicles will be exempt from company car tax next year
Quote
The Treasury has confirmed this week that company car drivers who choose an emissions-free electric fleet model will pay no benefit-in-kind (BIK) tax for the year as part of new efforts to encourage motorists to switch to green vehicles.

Those who choose pure electric models will pay zero company car tax for the year from April 2020, one per cent tax from April 2021 and two per cent BIK from April 2022, the Government confirmed.   

The measures are designed to increase the uptake of fully electric vehicles among fleets, which contribute to almost six in 10 new car registrations in the UK. ...
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-7236585/Electric-vehicles-exempt-company-car-tax-year.html

——
California is going to raise their EV rebate to $7500. Already through assembly and in state Senate. 

California bill could triple rebates for electric car buyers
https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/amp/California-bill-could-triple-rebates-for-electric-14077416.php

——-
Quote
Steve Jobs’ Ghost (@tesla_truth)7/12/19, 3:40 PM
German Auto Sales, June 2019
VW: Down 6%
BMW: Up 1.2%
Ford: Up 2.2%
Audi: Down 13.2%
Mercedes: Down 15.2%
Opel: Down 7.3%
Skoda: Down 2.9%
Hyundai: Down 7%
Fiat: Up 4.2%
Toyota: Up 0.6%
Mini: Down 20%
Smart: Down 11%
Nissan: Down 36%
Porsche: Down 32%
Tesla: Up 469%
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1149765594696151040
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #248 on: July 13, 2019, 08:03:47 PM »
Charging at home is a major issue and should be possible in new residential buildings. Last year I had to look for a system and the main problem was that most chargers are built for fast charging, which is not compatible with a residential concept - you have many hours and many cars to load but a limited power supply.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #249 on: July 13, 2019, 08:39:44 PM »
Zappi smart EV charger | Fully Charged