Electric cars

[morganism]

The forgotten fight to ban gas-powered cars in the 1960s

Half a century ago, an obscure state senator fought to ban gas-powered cars — and almost won.


Nicholas Petris, born to Greek immigrants in the San Francisco Bay Area in 1923, could remember a time when electric trucks were a common sight on the streets of Oakland. In fact, just a couple decades before his birth, both electric and steam-powered vehicles — which were cleaner and more powerful, respectively, than early gas-powered cars — constituted far larger shares of the American car market than combustion vehicles. The electric cars of this era ran on lead-acid batteries, which had to be recharged or swapped out every 50 to 100 miles, while the steam cars relied on water boilers and hand cranks to run. But for a few historical contingencies, either model could have rendered its gas-powered alternatives obsolete.

By the time of Petris’ childhood, however, cars with internal combustion engines had become dominant. Gas guzzlers won out thanks to a combination of factors, including the discovery of vast oil reserves across the American West, improvements in the production and technology of gas-powered cars (including the invention of the electric starter, which eliminated the hand crank), the general population’s limited access to electricity, and the occasional propensity of early steam cars to explode.

Whereas electric car pioneers had envisioned communal networks of streetcars and taxis, the gas-powered automobile promised independence, unconstrained by the relatively limited distances battery-powered vehicles could travel without a charge. This meant more Americans than ever were driving on their own, rather than sharing mass transit, such as the railroads on which Petris’ father worked as a mechanic. Petris grew up in a California increasingly dense with traffic and crisscrossed by freeways.

But with the rise of combustion cars came smog. Named for its superficial resemblance to both smoke and fog, the lung-punishing, eye-burning, occasionally deadly mixture of air pollutants began settling on cities — most famously Los Angeles — in the mid-20th century. In 1949, for instance, a blanket of ammonia-smelling vapor settled on Petris’ hometown; a newspaper in nearby Palo Alto, where Petris was studying law at Stanford, declared smog “a growing menace.” By the early 1950s, scientists had identified its cause: exhaust from gas-powered cars. Legislators and regulators — especially in California, the biggest auto market in America — raced to limit the fumes that cars were permitted to spew into the atmosphere.
(more)

https://grist.org/transportation/the-forgotten-fight-to-ban-gas-powered-cars-in-the-1960s/

[John_the_Younger]

All but 45 of them, anyway...

[Paddy]

All but 45 of them, anyway...

No telling the individual circumstances of the people purchasing those 45 vehicles.  Some might live in uniquely remote locations where charging up is still not an option, some might not be Norwegian…

[interstitial]

All but 45 of them, anyway...

No telling the individual circumstances of the people purchasing those 45 vehicles.  Some might live in uniquely remote locations where charging up is still not an option, some might not be Norwegian…

or maybe they just got a really cheap price with dealerships trying to sell the last of their inventory.

[NeilT]

They may also have access to a commercial supply of fuel.

[Sigmetnow]

Norway's electric car sales set new world record

Electric car sales in Norway took a 94% share of the market in August — a new world record — statistics showed Monday, as sales in the rest of Europe stagnate.
 
Boosted by the Tesla Model Y, which accounted for 18.8% of sales, and to a lesser extent Hyundai's Kona and Nissan's Leaf, electric vehicles made up 94.3% of new car registrations, the Norwegian Road Federation (OFV) said.
 
Norwegians bought 10,480 new EVs in August, bringing the total to 68,435 since the start of the year.
 
Elsewhere in Europe high prices and insufficient infrastructure have hampered sales of EVs, whereas sales of hybrid models, which combine fossil fuel engines with electric batteries, have increased.
 
The Scandinavian country, a major oil and gas producer, has set a target to sell only zero-emission vehicles by 2025, 10 years ahead of the EU goal. The country offers generous tax benefits which make electric models competitively priced.
 
"No country in the world comes close to Norway in the electric car race," OFV director Oyvind Solberg Thorsen said in a statement. "If this trend continues, we will soon be on our way to achieving our goal of 100% zero-emission [car sales] by 2025," he said.
 
By comparison, electric cars represented 12.1% of new car sales in the EU in July, behind petrol cars at 33.4%, full hybrids at 32% and diesel cars at 12.6%, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association.

https://www.voanews.com/a/norway-s-electric-car-sales-set-new-world-record-/7768036.html

 
—-

State of Colorado, US

Sawyer Merritt
Last night, I was talking with someone that lives in Colorado who qualifies for all the state's EV incentives. ...

8/29/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1829200465625538639

 
< Colorado has the best EV incentives in the country
 
Jared Polis [Governor of Colorado]
Yes we do!!!!!! 🚙 almost a quarter of new cars sold in our state are now electric. For cleaner air and quieter neighborhoods!!!!👍
8/29/24, https://x.com/jaredpolis/status/1829216449610539051
  
——

In June, electric vehicle sales grew faster than the rest of the U.S. auto market.
 
Tesla, the #1 EV brand, sold nearly 10 times as many electric vehicles as the #2 brand, Ford.

8/17/24, https://x.com/wholemarsblog/status/1824683868324237356
Table of sales data by brand at the link.
 
 
———-
Mercedes Benz to merge S-Class & EQS sedan lineup
August 31, 2024

Mercedes Benz will reportedly merge its S-Class and EQS sedan lineup, offering a collection of internal-combustion-engine (ICE) cars and electric vehicles (EVs) that follow the same design language.

Existing S-Class and EQS sedans will receive comprehensive updates in 2025 and 2026. Mercedes Benz is expected to release its next-generation flagship design under the merged S-Class and EQS lineup by 2030.

According to Car Scoops, Mercedes Benz’s strategy shift was expected, given the brand’s struggle to meet its EV sales targets. The company recently cut production at its Sindelfingen plant in Germany due to slow S-Class and EQS sales.

The luxury automaker pushed back its goal for EVs to account for 50% of its sales mix from 2025 to 2030.

Mercedes-Benz CEO Ola Kallenius confirmed that the brand will invest more in ICE powertrains and continue to sell traditional vehicles longer than expected. The company’s ICE vehicle sales dropped 22% in the first half of 2024, revealing a need to freshen up the current lineup.

https://www.teslarati.com/mercedes-benz-s-class-eqs-merge/

 
—-
VW will apparently miss its savings targets by several billion euros, and is considering plant closures in Germany.

As the VW Group will apparently miss its savings targets by several billion euros, the top management is planning further cuts. For the first time, possible plant closures and redundancies are being mooted - also because electric cars bring in relatively little profit.

Last week, it was reported that VW was up to three billion euros short of its savings target. German publication der Spiegel now writes that “there is currently a gap of four to five billion euros in the financial plan of the Volkswagen and VW Commercial Vehicles brands.” There are many reasons for this, including higher material prices, the weakness of the US market and the cheaper equipment that customers are currently ordering during the economic downturn – but margins are particularly high for optional extras.

Additionally, the magazine writes that the comparatively low profit margins of electric cars are also a problem for the manufacturer. In total, enormous amounts are missing. Brand boss Thomas Schäfer also admitted as much at a management meeting on Monday. Further savings are needed to protect the brand from losses.

“The cost-cutting programme at VW is escalating and leading to a major conflict between management and the General Works Council,” wrote the Works Council on Monday. According to the Works Council, the brand management board has cancelled at least one major vehicle plant and one component factory in Germany. Product commitments that have already been made are also likely to be cancelled, such as a compact-class electric SUV planned for 2026 from the Wolfsburg plant.

VW itself has also confirmed that it is “cancelling the job security agreement that has been in place since 1994.” The current agreement would have run until 2029. In other words, instruments such as early retirement, partial retirement or termination agreements are no longer sufficient to slowly reduce the workforce. In the current situation, plant closures cannot be ruled out ‘without rapid countermeasures’. The situation is “extremely tense and cannot be overcome by simple cost-cutting measures.”

However, it is not yet known where VW intends to cut back. In view of the involvement of the state of Lower Saxony, the local plants in Wolfsburg, Hanover (VW Commercial Vehicles) and Emden as well as the component plants in Brunswick, Salzgitter and Osnabrück are actually considered untouchable. That leaves the MEB plant in Zwickau, the Transparent Factory in Dresden and the component plant in Kassel. Over 26,000 people are employed in Kassel, Dresden and Zwickau.

The smallest vehicle plant with 8,500 employees in production is located in Emden – the ID.4 and ID.7 are built there, and Emden will become an exclusively battery-electric car plant from 2025. However, the German state of Lower Saxony has so far protected the site with its 20 per cent voting rights. There have been repeated rumours of a possible sale of the Osnabrück components plant with its 2,300 employees – but not of a closure. The fact that Audi is openly discussing the option of closing its factory in Brussels was already seen as a turning point. This was previously unthinkable for Germany but is now being discussed nonetheless.

The VW Works Council rarely holds back from criticising the management and is now choosing very harsh words. “The Board of Management is questioning nothing less than the entire VW core brand. We will not allow ourselves to be wound up here,” said Works Council Chair Daniela Cavallo, announcing “fierce resistance from the employee side.”

https://www.electrive.com/2024/09/02/vw-is-apparently-considering-plant-closures-in-germany/
 

Cyber Ambassador @WmBrackbill
I hate to see VW in decline. VW is a major employer in Chattanooga, Tennessee, USA where the Atlas SUV and the ID.4 are manufactured. To add insult to injury the local facility also voted to join the UAW Union. I see Tesla Model 3 and Y's everywhere in Chattanooga but not many ID.4's.

9/2/24, https://x.com/wmbrackbill/status/1830633222163534266

[nadir]

Was she right? I think so.

[Rascal Dog]

Was she right? I think so.

What a pile of FUD.

Plug in hybrids can be a good thing, and I'd expect them to be a significant but minor part of the future market. But the rollout of new transmission lines in Germany isn't any significant problem for electric cars as charging electric cars is going to be a tiny fraction of the peak load on electrical grids. And even if it was, plug in hybrids can get most of their energy from the same electrical grid.

A large fraction of "plug in" hybrids are never plugged in. If they were, they would require almost exactly the same home/work charging infrastructure that EVs need.

Plug in hybrids that are never plugged in are a waste.

[gerontocrat]

US LDV Fleet at end 2023

At last the US Alternative Fuels Data Center have published their analysis of registered vehicles by fuel type as at end 2023.

The total US LDV fleet increased by 3.6 million (1.3%) to 287.1 million vehicles.
BEVs increased by 1.11 million (46%) to 3.55 million vehicles.
HEVs (which are essentially ICEVs)  increased by 1.1 million (17.5%) to 7.4 million vehicles.
ICEVs increased by 1.1 million (0.4%) to 274.8 million vehicles.

ICEVs+HEVs increased by 2.2 million (0.8%) to 282.2 million vehicles, forming 98.3% of 2023 LDVs on the road.

The increase in BEVs on the road is simply confined to reducing growth in fossil fuel demand for ICEVs, and from that reducing growth in CO2 emissions. Current 2024 trends in LDV sales show both ICEV and BEV sales subdued, implying slow growth in the LDV fleet and slow change in the LDV fleet composition.

Until such time the ICEV fleet numbers start to fall, the energy transition in the US automotive sector cannot be said to be truly underway. The prospects for substantive reductions in CO2 emissions from the US Transportation sector by 2030 look bleak (apart from possible effects of new CO2 vehicle emission regulations).

___________________________________
ps: CHINA It is possible that this year 50% of LDV sales in China will be EVs (maybe 35-40% pure BEVs). But car ownership is growing rapidly, and scrappage rates are low. So ICEVs on the road will probably increase in 2024 and for some years to come.

Unfortunately I cannot find China data on registered vehicles by fuel type. If anybody knows a source...... ?

[Rascal Dog]

The increase in BEVs on the road is simply confined to reducing growth in fossil fuel demand for ICEVs, and from that reducing growth in CO2 emissions. Current 2024 trends in LDV sales show both ICEV and BEV sales subdued, implying slow growth in the LDV fleet and slow change in the LDV fleet composition.

Until such time the ICEV fleet numbers start to fall, the energy transition in the US automotive sector cannot be said to be truly underway. The prospects for substantive reductions in CO2 emissions from the US Transportation sector by 2030 look bleak (apart from possible effects of new CO2 vehicle emission regulations).

And again, your projections are too bleak. And in a way, not bleak enough.

BEV sales doubled over the past 2.5 years. The next doubling, likely in another 2.5 years, will have all of the growth in vehicles in the USA being in BEVs. Sales month to month are fairly noisy. Focusing on short term trends in sales is misleading at best.

Consider a pond. Suppose some lotus flowers on the pond double in population every day. If 8% of the pond is covered in lotus flowers, how many days before the pond is completely covered?

Based on the continuation of the past growth rate in sales, somewhere around 2030-2032 sales will be mostly BEVs. Based on the average life on the road of a car being about twice the average age of a car (12.6 years), it would be around another 25 years before almost all cars on the road are BEVs. While it is possible that the scrappage rate would increase near the end due to gasoline and diesel getting hard to find in some locations, it still will take decades to replace all the ICEs.

So setting a goal of a large decrease by 2030 is unlikely at best.

Norway hit 90+% BEVs this year, and gasoline sales are trending down. Slowly.

https://www.ssb.no/en/energi-og-industri/olje-og-gass/statistikk/sal-av-petroleumsprodukt


The USA might hit 90% BEVs around 2030 to 2032. China in 2027 or so.

[Sigmetnow]

The average lifespan of a horse is 30 years.  Yet New York City switched from almost all horses to almost all cars in ten years.
 
What to do with all the unneeded horses?  Some suggested eating them….

Switching from ICE to EV won’t be one-for-one, because of robotaxis and ride sharing.  Increasing numbers of people will discover they no longer need to own their own vehicle at all.  People’s ICE cars will sit unused for longer and longer periods, then eventually be disposed of.
 
EVs aren’t just cleaner ICE cars, just as cars are not simply faster horses.  Because of modern software, EVs will usher in a completely different, disruptive transportation system.  The reduction of gas stations won’t be the forcing function.  EV adoption will accelerate because EVs are easier to maintain, provide more capability and entertainment, become cheaper than ICE as ICE loses the benefits of scale, and EVs simply become the new normal.  Like the market for smart phones took over the market for dumb phones.

Norway’s switch shows that FUD like “EVs don’t work in the cold” is overcome by increasing experience.

[Paddy]

Unfortunately I cannot find China data on registered vehicles by fuel type. If anybody knows a source...... ?

Apparently as of the end of 2023, 20.41 million of the 435 million motor vehicles on China’s roads were New Energy Vehicles, with 15.52 million of these being pure battery electric vehicles . Which would mean that 3.56% of the vehicles on China’s roads are electric now.

[gerontocrat]

The average lifespan of a horse is 30 years.  Yet New York City switched from almost all horses to almost all cars in ten years.
 
What to do with all the unneeded horses?  Some suggested eating them….

Switching from ICE to EV won’t be one-for-one, because of robotaxis and ride sharing.  Increasing numbers of people will discover they no longer need to own their own vehicle at all.  People’s ICE cars will sit unused for longer and longer periods, then eventually be disposed of.
 
EVs aren’t just cleaner ICE cars, just as cars are not simply faster horses.  Because of modern software, EVs will usher in a completely different, disruptive transportation system.  The reduction of gas stations won’t be the forcing function.  EV adoption will accelerate because EVs are easier to maintain, provide more capability and entertainment, become cheaper than ICE as ICE loses the benefits of scale, and EVs simply become the new normal.  Like the market for smart phones took over the market for dumb phones.

Norway’s switch shows that FUD like “EVs don’t work in the cold” is overcome by increasing experience.

My post was about the US.

Norway's Government accelerated the transition by very assertive carrots and sticks, including  a very effective generous scrappage scheme, and finished by passing legislation to ban the sale of ICEV cars from 1/1/25.

in the US, the sale of BEVs accelerated until some time in late 2023. Since that time monthly data shows increases have been sluggish, and legacy auto in the US have been if anything, reducing plans for BEVs.

Maybe things will change, maybe robotaxis will wallop the conventional vehicle market. Maybe a 25k Tesla will upend the US trend for bigger and bigger vehicles and decisively switch sales from ICEVs, HEVS and PHEVs to pure BEVs.

How much that will change the number of ICEVs on the road by 2030 is debatable and at the moment pure speculation. My speculation is that the transition, which by my definition is significant reductions in ICEVs on the road,  will only really take off in the 2030s.

[Rascal Dog]

The average lifespan of a horse is 30 years.  Yet New York City switched from almost all horses to almost all cars in ten years.

Yet the horse population grew while the car population was growing.

[Rascal Dog]

in the US, the sale of BEVs accelerated until some time in late 2023. Since that time monthly data shows increases have been sluggish, and legacy auto in the US have been if anything, reducing plans for BEVs.

Since 2010, sales of BEVs have doubled, doubled again, doubled again, doubled again, doubled again, and doubled once more. 14 years, six doublings. From less than 0.1% to over 8%. With several year long pauses, like we seem to be having now. Every pause is complete with comments like above... which don't appear while growth is rapid, then reappear for the next pause.

Another 4 doublings should do it.

EVs already have a lower total cost of ownership due to electric power being usually much cheaper than gasoline and lower maintenance costs. Purchase prices are getting closer to parity, soon the question will be why spend more money to buy an ICE so you can spend more money on fueling the ICE?

And EVs are nicer to drive.

ICE is doomed almost everywhere. Ah yes, but time. How long? At the historical 2.5 years per doubling, that would be about 2031. Give or take a few years. Then the long tail of slowly scrapping all the ICE cars and building more infrastructure.

I really fail to see how robotaxis is going to change much. Sure, will replace many but not all of the human taxi drivers. But replace many private cars? Consider the deadhead ratio. If there are exactly as many robotaxis replacing current private cars, one sits in your driveway until you go to work, and sits at work till you come home. And so on. Exactly the same. But if the robotaxi takes two people to work, with different working hours and work/home locations, it would drive you to work, deadhead to the second person's house, take them to work, deadhead to your work, drive you home, deadhead to the second person's work, take them home, deadhead to your home to be ready to take you to work in the morning. Twice as many trips, perhaps as many as twice as many miles. Sure, software might be able to optimize the deadhead miles, but not eliminate them.

Anyone think that having cars drive more miles will improve traffic congestion?

More miles driven increase energy use, tire wear and so on. Increasing the cost per mile.

People put personal items in their cars. Shopping bags, pillows, blankets, coats, phone charging cables, wheelchairs and so on. A robotaxi would mean you would have to load up and unload at the other end.

[Espen]

in the US, the sale of BEVs accelerated until some time in late 2023. Since that time monthly data shows increases have been sluggish, and legacy auto in the US have been if anything, reducing plans for BEVs.

Since 2010, sales of BEVs have doubled, doubled again, doubled again, doubled again, doubled again, and doubled once more. 14 years, six doublings. From less than 0.1% to over 8%. With several year long pauses, like we seem to be having now. Every pause is complete with comments like above... which don't appear while growth is rapid, then reappear for the next pause.

Another 4 doublings should do it.

EVs already have a lower total cost of ownership due to electric power being usually much cheaper than gasoline and lower maintenance costs. Purchase prices are getting closer to parity, soon the question will be why spend more money to buy an ICE so you can spend more money on fueling the ICE?

And EVs are nicer to drive.

ICE is doomed almost everywhere. Ah yes, but time. How long? At the historical 2.5 years per doubling, that would be about 2031. Give or take a few years. Then the long tail of slowly scrapping all the ICE cars and building more infrastructure.

I really fail to see how robotaxis is going to change much. Sure, will replace many but not all of the human taxi drivers. But replace many private cars? Consider the deadhead ratio. If there are exactly as many robotaxis replacing current private cars, one sits in your driveway until you go to work, and sits at work till you come home. And so on. Exactly the same. But if the robotaxi takes two people to work, with different working hours and work/home locations, it would drive you to work, deadhead to the second person's house, take them to work, deadhead to your work, drive you home, deadhead to the second person's work, take them home, deadhead to your home to be ready to take you to work in the morning. Twice as many trips, perhaps as many as twice as many miles. Sure, software might be able to optimize the deadhead miles, but not eliminate them.

Anyone think that having cars drive more miles will improve traffic congestion?

More miles driven increase energy use, tire wear and so on. Increasing the cost per mile.

People put personal items in their cars. Shopping bags, pillows, blankets, coats, phone charging cables, wheelchairs and so on. A robotaxi would mean you would have to load up and unload at the other end.

Not to mention cleaning between each trip

[Sigmetnow]

People put personal items in their cars. Shopping bags, pillows, blankets, coats, phone charging cables, wheelchairs and so on. A robotaxi would mean you would have to load up and unload at the other end.

Removing the steering wheel and pedals allows for different and larger interior layouts, including: direct wheelchair access — no more needing to fold and stow.  Cameras and other sensors can be used to warn passengers as they leave the vehicle that they have left articles behind.  Better than buses. 
 
Most trips won’t be long enough to require things like pillows and blankets (unless you are renting one to sleep in for a few hours, which, if you are willing to pay for the time, is already considered an acceptable use by many analysts).

 

Not to mention cleaning between each trip

 
Tesla Patent Shows Clean Robotaxi Solutions

… There’s an extensive body of text in the patent that could make your eyes bleed, but an independent patent researcher, “SETI Park,” nicely summarizes the key features.

Key features include:

▫️ Environmental detection through various sensors: detecting temperature, humidity, presence of pathogens, etc.

▫️ Customized sanitation routines: generating appropriate sanitation routines based on detected environmental conditions.

▫️ Various sanitation methods: utilizing HVAC systems, UV lighting, steam generators, etc.

▫️ Automated processes: automatically executing sanitation processes when people are absent.

▫️ Adaptive system: adjusting sanitation methods considering external weather, vehicle usage history, etc. …

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/07/06/tesla-patent-shows-clear-robotaxi-solutions/

[Sigmetnow]

For centuries the world has experienced disruption in patterns of exponential curves, so one should assume that we know what is coming….
 
9/6/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1832015412420038921
⬇️ Page of graphs

—-
 
Remember all the people claiming that the cost of the battery in a BEV make them uncompetitive?
Static thinking leads to major strategic mistakes.
Hint: battery costs will fall even further.
 
9/6/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1832059346865324534
⬇️ Battery price graph over time below

—-
 
The fact that the Model Y is now literally the best-selling car in the world just 4 years after this article came out makes this even funnier.
 
9/6/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1832105184669134870
⬇️ Headline pic: 15 Reasons Why The Tesla Model Y Will Fail

 —-
 
Tesla and BYD sold more EVs last year than all of legacy auto combined.
 
That should scare the hell out of them. But instead they’re pulling back from EVs. In a few years they will be kicking themselves over it.
 
9/6/24, https://x.com/wholemarsblog/status/1832133661053087922
⬇️ Europe’s Automakers Are Trailing on EVs

[Sigmetnow]

Renault CEO says sector could face billions in fines as EV sales slow
September 7, 2024

PARIS, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Europe's autos industry could face fines of 15 billion euros ($17.4 billion) for carbon emissions due to slowing demand for electric vehicles, Renault CEO Luca de Meo said on Saturday.
 
Automakers face tougher EU CO2 targets in 2025 as the cap on average emissions from new vehicles sales falls to 94 grams/km from 116 g/km in 2024.
 
"If electric vehicles remain at today's level, the European industry may have to pay 15 billion euros in fines or give up the production of more than 2.5 million vehicles," de Meo told France Inter radio.
 
"The speed of the electric ramp-up is half of what we would need to achieve the objectives that would allow us not to pay fines," de Meo, who is also president of the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), said of the sector.
 
Exceeding CO2 limits can lead to fines amounting to 95 euros per excess CO2 g/km multiplied by the number of vehicles sold. That could result in penalties of hundreds of millions of euros for large carmakers.
 
"Everyone is talking about 2035, in 10 years, but we should be talking about 2025 because we are already struggling," he said.
 
"We need to be given a little flexibility. Setting deadlines and fines without being able to make that more flexible is very, very dangerous."

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/renault-ceo-says-sector-could-face-billions-fines-ev-sales-slow-2024-09-07/

[Rascal Dog]

What you didn't reply to:

Consider the deadhead ratio. If there are exactly as many robotaxis replacing current private cars, one sits in your driveway until you go to work, and sits at work till you come home. And so on. Exactly the same. But if the robotaxi takes two people to work, with different working hours and work/home locations, it would drive you to work, deadhead to the second person's house, take them to work, deadhead to your work, drive you home, deadhead to the second person's work, take them home, deadhead to your home to be ready to take you to work in the morning. Twice as many trips, perhaps as many as twice as many miles. Sure, software might be able to optimize the deadhead miles, but not eliminate them.

Anyone think that having cars drive more miles will improve traffic congestion?

More miles driven increase energy use, tire wear and so on. Increasing the cost per mile.

People put personal items in their cars. Shopping bags, pillows, blankets, coats, phone charging cables, wheelchairs and so on. A robotaxi would mean you would have to load up and unload at the other end.

Removing the steering wheel and pedals allows for different and larger interior layouts, including: direct wheelchair access — no more needing to fold and stow.  Cameras and other sensors can be used to warn passengers as they leave the vehicle that they have left articles behind.  Better than buses.

Mobility issues can be a lot more complex than you seem to understand.

Not everyone that uses a wheelchair wants to sit in it in the car, and may not use the travel wheelchair at all at home.

Most trips won’t be long enough to require things like pillows and blankets

A trip to a doctor just 28 miles (about 40 minutes) away from home often includes a nap for the passenger. Sometimes two.

Sure, not typical. But there are real drawbacks to robotaxis. Less drawbacks than buses, sure. Not as good as a human driven taxi, with a driver who can help with items. Probably cheaper than a human driven taxi, so would likely displace some private cars, mostly in crowded cities where many are already car free and rely on walking, buses, taxis, etc.

[Sigmetnow]

Anyone think that having cars drive more miles will improve traffic congestion?

 
The discussion was about numbers of registered vehicles, ICE versus EV.  Today, personal vehicles are in use less than 10% of their day.  Each robotaxi has the potential to shift multiple no-longer-needed ICE vehicles to the scrap heap.

Mobility issues can be a lot more complex than you seem to understand.
Not everyone that uses a wheelchair wants to sit in it in the car, and may not use the travel wheelchair at all at home.

Clearly you have never assisted a paraplegic or quadriplegic person from their wheelchair to or from today’s vehicles.

[Rascal Dog]

Anyone think that having cars drive more miles will improve traffic congestion?

 
The discussion was about numbers of registered vehicles, ICE versus EV.  Today, personal vehicles are in use less than 10% of their day.  Each robotaxi has the potential to shift multiple no-longer-needed ICE vehicles to the scrap heap.

Reduction in number of vehicles matched with an increase in total miles driven. The more people per robotaxi, the more deadhead miles adding to the total miles driven.

And more traffic added to congestion.

Mobility issues can be a lot more complex than you seem to understand.
Not everyone that uses a wheelchair wants to sit in it in the car, and may not use the travel wheelchair at all at home.

Clearly you have never assisted a paraplegic or quadriplegic person from their wheelchair to or from today’s vehicles.

BFS

[interstitial]

The deadhead miles go in the opposite direction of the congestion so they contribute little to congestion.

[morganism]

(fuel cell car, new nano membrane)

A water car that puts a date on the end of gasoline: this company has made it happen

The idea of powering a car with water instead of gasoline has long fascinated inventors and environmentalists alike. What if cars could run simply on hydrogen extracted from water?

It would provide clean transportation powered by the most abundant substance on Earth. While water-fueled cars have remained mostly at the conceptual stage, a pioneering company called Electriq Global is turning the dream into reality.

Based in Israel, Electriq Global has developed a proprietary system that efficiently converts water into fuel to power vehicles. Their technology extracts hydrogen from water and uses it to generate electricity that propels the car.

This leap forward stands to completely transform the auto industry while also benefiting the environment. With an estimated 1,000 km range per tank, Electriq’s water-based fuel could soon make gasoline obsolete.

Theorised but unproven: this is how the first water car in history works

The water-powered car technology developed by the Israeli company Electriq Global utilizes a unique nano-technology that is able to split water into hydrogen and oxygen through a specialized membrane.

This membrane acts like an electrolytic cell, using electricity to break down the water molecules into their composite elements. The hydrogen produced from the reaction is then fed into the vehicle’s fuel cell.

In the fuel cell, the hydrogen combines with oxygen from the air to generate an electric current. This electricity powers the car’s electric motor, propelling the vehicle. Unlike traditional combustion engines, the only byproduct from this reaction is water, meaning the car emits only clean water vapor rather than any harmful emissions.

The membrane that splits the water molecules was developed specially by Electriq Global. It contains unique nanomaterials that make the reaction possible using much less electricity than has been needed before. This breakthrough helps make water-powered cars using hydrogen fuel cells a viable reality.
A prototype that has been difficult to optimise: the story of the first water car

Electriq Global has built multiple prototypes to test and refine their water-based fuel technology. In 2018, they successfully road-tested a Renault Clio retrofitted to run on the hydrogen-on-demand fuel system.

The test car achieved speeds over 70 mph and required no engine modifications besides connecting to an external water tank and fuel converter. Further road tests are planned using a Suzuki Vitara SUV retrofitted with a larger fuel converter and water tank to extend its range.

Electriq’s goal is to demonstrate over 600 miles per tank, comparable to traditional gasoline vehicles. So far, the technology has shown excellent results in normal driving conditions.

The fuel converter efficiently extracts hydrogen from water and feeds it to the engine with no loss of performance compared to gasoline. Through rigorous testing and refinements, Electriq aims to prove the viability of water-powered vehicles for everyday consumer use.

The truth is that a water car could be the end of petrol and all polluting fuels. We have known for years that hydrogen would play a very important role in the decarbonisation of mobility, but not to this extent. Will we soon see it on our roads? Let’s hope so, given its advantages.

https://www.eldiario24.com/en/water-car-end-gasoline/114/

[Rascal Dog]

The deadhead miles go in the opposite direction of the congestion so they contribute little to congestion.

Partly true. In a world with few very few robotaxis, and with congestion only one way.

If all cars are robotaxis, the morning traffic will look like the original morning plus much of the original evening traffic. Congested both ways. Evening traffic reverse, likewise. Might be possible to estimate the number of robotaxis that might not increase congestion much and limit numbers to that.


If traffic is already congested both ways, such as near city centers, then adding any robotaxis will increase congestion right away.

Uber and Lift have about 38% of miles as deadhead miles. Robotaxis would more, but would not be hugely different. So perhaps 6 deadhead miles per 10 passenger miles.

[NeilT]

Uber and lyft have human drivers with assigned locations and a need to get back to the home location. With robotaxis from companies the taxi will be mapped into a request network which will see it servicing rides which eventually bring it back to the home location over time.  In fact there may eventually be an open access ride system where autonomous cabs compete for business from a single service.

Sitting and waiting is not a big issue for a robotaxi as there is no human burning money sitting there. People fail to realise that an asset is a deprecating cost and a human is a fixed or increasing constant drag on the operating costs of the service.

Once you remove the human money sink the model for services changes dramatically.  Add a central call and ride routing system with AI levels of anticipation from learned traffic patterns and your taxi service bears zero relation to current services.

[kassy]

A whole lot of people also need to get to work at about the same time so they would probably prefer a personal car. If you live in a potential evacuation area you might want to have a personal car etc.

Once you take the human out of the service you are mainly replacing taxi drivers. Someone else gets to profit. That human money sink has families.

[interstitial]

(fuel cell car, new nano membrane)

A water car..

I think this is an AI generated clickbait campaign. Google had been sending me lots of links to ecoticias which generates these almost real but highly misleading stories. I just blocked the site. They describe a hydrogen fuel cell car without mentioning any of the reasons most people have given up on this approach. Costs for hydrogen fuel are extremely high either for the fuel or for the energy to split hydrogen. Safe in car hydrogen storage has low energy density and high energy costs. The hydrogen needs to be adsorbed onto a surface which is where the energy loss comes from. The tanks tend to be heavy and have low fuel storage. 

[NeilT]

Once you take the human out of the service you are mainly replacing taxi drivers. Someone else gets to profit. That human money sink has families.

I'm well aware.  But then there were loads of people who looked after the horses and provided pasture and feed for them and the whole supply chain which were simply rolled up by Automobiles.  Then there were tens of thousands who worked in fuel stations that gradually vanished.  In the UK there were 40,000 fuel stations in the 1960's and now there are just over 8,000.  That's a lot of workers who now do something else.

This happens all the time.  Tens of thousands of busses without conductors, hundreds to thousands of trains too.

Progress tends to do this.  Which is why people who held down service jobs are now working packing shelves in supermarkets.  Which will be replaced by bots in the next decade or two.

Darwinian and it is not just low totem pole workers.  Just think what AI is going to do to finance and accountancy which is, in the end, lots of numbers and a fixed set of rules.  Simples for AI.

[SteveMDFP]

(fuel cell car, new nano membrane)

A water car..

I think this is an AI generated clickbait campaign. Google had been sending me lots of links to ecoticias which generates these almost real but highly misleading stories. I just blocked the site. They describe a hydrogen fuel cell car without mentioning any of the reasons most people have given up on this approach. Costs for hydrogen fuel are extremely high either for the fuel or for the energy to split hydrogen. Safe in car hydrogen storage has low energy density and high energy costs. The hydrogen needs to be adsorbed onto a surface which is where the energy loss comes from. The tanks tend to be heavy and have low fuel storage.

Indeed.  The article, as written, is insultingly stupid.  Water is not a fuel source.  In this scheme, it's merely a hydrogen storage system.  It will always cost more energy to liberate the hydrogen from water than you get in propulsion energy -- it doesn't matter how "efficient" any membrane is.  Next up: "Perpetual Motion Machines Will Solve All Our Energy Problems!"

[Rascal Dog]

Uber and lyft have human drivers with assigned locations and a need to get back to the home location. With robotaxis from companies the taxi will be mapped into a request network which will see it servicing rides which eventually bring it back to the home location over time.  In fact there may eventually be an open access ride system where autonomous cabs compete for business from a single service.

Still, there is problem with deadhead miles. Might not be 38% of miles like Lyft and Uber, will likely be different than that. But there will be more miles driven, worse congestion, and higher cost per passenger mile.

Sitting and waiting is not a big issue for a robotaxi as there is no human burning money sitting there.

I don't think Uber, Lyft or traditional taxi drivers are paid for sitting and waiting.

Once you remove the human money sink the model for services changes dramatically.  Add a central call and ride routing system with AI levels of anticipation from learned traffic patterns and your taxi service bears zero relation to current services.

Deus ex machina.

Any over-optimized solution will fail with the first snowstorm. AI isn't a god, and can't provide an answer better than what is physically reasonable.

[NeilT]

Any over-optimized solution will fail with the first snowstorm. AI isn't a god, and can't provide an answer better than what is physically reasonable.

True but AI evolution is faster.

[Rascal Dog]

Any over-optimized solution will fail with the first snowstorm. AI isn't a god, and can't provide an answer better than what is physically reasonable.

True but AI evolution is faster.

Failing faster is sometimes a good thing.

Unless you are trying to get home after work, and it snowed. A 1 hour trip becomes a 4 hour trip. A robotaxi scheduled to arrive when you get off work at 5PM arrives at 1AM. Hope you don't get cold while waiting.

AI can fix that... How???

A network of robotaxis is more expensive per mile due to the deadhead overhead, less convenient because you have to carry everything, and less reliable than a network of private cars. What exactly is the robotaxi advantage?

[NeilT]

Unless you are trying to get home after work, and it snowed. A 1 hour trip becomes a 4 hour trip. A robotaxi scheduled to arrive when you get off work at 5PM arrives at 1AM. Hope you don't get cold while waiting.

Actually that is a good case in point.  I can drive in those conditions.  How many city drivers can unless they live in the north where there is literally 4-6 months of this kind of weather.

There is a myth that Scandinavians are super fantastic drivers in snow.  One weekend I was away from Stockholm the snow came down early.  The entire city gridlocked and people had to stay in hotels or walk home.  The difference with Scandinavia is that over that weekend they all went and got their winter tyres fitted and then carried on driving as normal.

I drove there 3 winters, no winter tyres, one winter with standard snow tyres and one winter with studded tyres.  There is a difference, I can drive with all 3 tyre types.

AI can learn to drive in the snow in the north then every single robotaxi running on that AI can drive in the snow.  If the majority of the vehicles on the road are robotaxi's with snow driving experience, the gridlock doesn't happen.

That is the benefit of AI.

People just don't get it.  Every Robotaxi drives at the very Best skill level of the AI.  Which produces less accidents, less congestion and a better commuting experience.

Why wouldn't you want to be driven by the best driver?  Much less stressful than driving yourself and most drivers are going to work.  Very little to carry that they don't carry some distance anyway.

[Rascal Dog]

Unless you are trying to get home after work, and it snowed. A 1 hour trip becomes a 4 hour trip. A robotaxi scheduled to arrive when you get off work at 5PM arrives at 1AM. Hope you don't get cold while waiting.

AI can learn to drive in the snow in the north then every single robotaxi running on that AI can drive in the snow.  If the majority of the vehicles on the road are robotaxi's with snow driving experience, the gridlock doesn't happen.

The laws of physics beg to differ. Snow and ice at the freezing point has a very low coefficient of friction, even with good snow tires. So safe driving is slower, starts and stops are slower. If you could drive 60 you might be limited to 30 or even to 15. Even with mythical AI. As such a 1 hour trip might take 4 hours. All of robotaxis are going to be moving much slower, each trip will be later, so the last ride of the day might be tomorrow.

Note, this would be true even if the AI was ideal.

People just don't get it.  Every Robotaxi drives at the very Best skill level of the AI.  Which produces less accidents, less congestion and a better commuting experience.

Why wouldn't you want to be driven by the best driver?  Much less stressful than driving yourself and most drivers are going to work.  Very little to carry that they don't carry some distance anyway.

The "best skill level of the AI" isn't likely to be human average for some time. Especially in challenging situations. Human intelligence still has advantages.

[John_the_Younger]

My Tesla says Full Self Driving (Supervised) is "degraded" whenever there is a sprinkle or more rain.  I presume it would self-disengage (like it used to do regularly for unknown reasons - a year and more ago) if the rain got too heavy or snow stuck to where the cameras are.  All the AI in the world won't help a car that is blind. 

I can now picture my future car with a robotic arm in front with a couple white and red walking sticks inching (rather quickly, I'll admit) down the road during a blizzard. 

Maybe the curb-recognizing radar my car used to use (or does it still use it, and it's just that new Teslas don't have it?) would be able to inch down the road ...

[Rascal Dog]

Ah, where did this digression into robotaxis start?

ICE is doomed almost everywhere. Ah yes, but time. How long? At the historical 2.5 years per doubling, that would be about 2031. Give or take a few years. Then the long tail of slowly scrapping all the ICE cars and building more infrastructure.

I really fail to see how robotaxis is going to change much.

I still don't see how robotaxis are going to make a large impact on the long tail of slowly scrapping all the ICE cars. Isn't there a topic for self driving cars?

About 4% of ICE vehicles are scrapped every year. At this rate, if the sales of BEVs exceeds 90% of all sales in about 2030, then somewhere around 2040 half of all vehicles will be BEVs, and somewhere around 2050 most will be BEVs.

That's the realistic case. Might be able to improve this somewhat with a scrapping subsidy or a BEV purchase subsidy. I'm not sure if this is worthwhile.

Other reductions in greenhouse gases are going to be slower. For example, aviation. Might it make more sense to spend any limited subsidies on lowering the emissions of planes rather than speeding up the BEV deployment?

[NeilT]

I still don't see how robotaxis are going to make a large impact on the long tail of slowly scrapping all the ICE cars. Isn't there a topic for self driving cars?

There is and we should discuss it there.

I think the bleed over comes as we were discussing how robotaxi would reduce the number of vehicles on the road as increasing EV penetration took increasingly larger proportions of the reduced vehicles being sold.

Then with ICE ageing out, EV takes over and EV also becomes a core part of the RoboTaxi fleet.  Especially where it can simply sit waiting for a call with zero/minimal power drain and then warm up/cool down and head for the customer.

The entire situation has not been fully worked through and it is difficult to see the whole picture without a better view of how things are going to change.

[gerontocrat]

The US Argonne National Laboratory has released sales of new LDVs by fuel type for August 2024

August 2024 has seen a welcome uplift in BEV sales, up 25,000, 26%, over August 2023.
However, sales of HEVs increased by 40,000, 37%, over Aug 23, and conventional ICEVs by 3.5%, meaning ICEV+HEV sales increased by 79,000, 6.6%, over August 2023.

These annual increases are well below the annual increases during much of summer 2023. If the Fed cuts interest rates this year and next year, perhaps the LDV market will respond accordingly, though the share of sales growth amongst the vararious fuel types is beyond me to forecast.

It can be noted that the August 2024 sales of new BEVs of 121,000 is the 2nd highest for the USA (Dec 23 a few hundred higher), and at 8.6% of total Aug 23 LDV sales is the highest monthly percentage recorded.
_______________________________________
ps:
An HEV is an ICEV as far as the energy transition is concerned.
PHEVs, due to limited range and drivers choosing the conveniemce of filling up at the gas station, only make a marginal contribution to reducing demand for oil and gas

[Rascal Dog]

The US Argonne National Laboratory has released sales of new LDVs by fuel type for August 2024

That should be
Wards Auto released sales of new LDV by fuel type for August 2024, as reported by US Argonne National Laboratory

Argonne National Laboratory is using Wards Auto as a source.

Note again that sales of BEVs are not fully reported by any method, so these are partially estimated sales, rather than actual sales. And while Wards Auto is a reasonable source, there are others and month to month variability between estimates is high.

Month to month variability in the fully documented BEV sales (Excluding Tesla, Rivian and others)  is also fairly high.

August 2024 has seen a welcome uplift in BEV sales, up 25,000, 26%, over August 2023.

Doubling time of 3 years. Slightly slower than long term trend.

PHEVs, due to limited range and drivers choosing the conveniemce of filling up at the gas station, only make a marginal contribution to reducing demand for oil and gas[/i]

About half of miles in PHEVs are electric. Some PHEVs seem to have been bought for reasons other than fuel sources, such a HOV lane privileges, tax breaks making them cheaper than the equivalent ICE, and so on.

For one car, the Chevy Volt, and a sample of 36 cars, 413,687 total miles, and 280,390 electric miles.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/org/science/article/pii/S1556831822004269


This fraction varies between PHEVs, with the battery range being a significant factor. PHEVs with small electric ranges had very low electric mile ratios.

[Sigmetnow]

EV / Petrol / Hydrogen
 
—- 🇳🇴 Norway now has more electric cars on the road than petrol vehicles.
 
More than 50% of all vehicles in Norway's vehicle fleet are now electric.
 
Total number of EVs in Norway: 754,303
 
Total number of petrol cars in Norway: 753,905
 
Tesla has sold 13,440 vehicles in Norway this year so far. Toyota has sold 9,761 cars in that same time period.
 
9/19/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1836776544951263246

94.3% of all cars sold in Norway were electric in August and guess what,
 
the grid hasn't collapsed
there aren't dead EVs everywhere
houses and parking lots aren't on fire
people don't miss the loud wrooms
the landfills aren't full of batteries …
   —
btw here are 12 regions where over 20% of the cars sold have been fully electric this year.
They aren’t turning back. ...

9/12/24, https://x.com/theevuniverse/status/1834249026230763888
⬇️ “12 regions” table below.

—-
Try burning a tank of gas more than once!
 
NEWS: Redwood Materials signs a deal with BMW of North America to recycle lithium-ion battery packs from BMW's EVs and will eventually use recycled material from Redwood in battery packs for BMWs built in North America.
 
Redwood has signed partnerships with Ford, Volvo, Volkswagen, and more recently General Motors.
9/19/24, https://x.com/ajtourville/status/1836732817625239562
 
BMW of North America and Redwood partner to recycle lithium-ion batteries
According to a recent Stanford University finding, Redwood’s processes have a significantly smaller environmental impact than conventional mining or other recycling technologies, reducing energy by 80%, CO2 emissions by 70%, and water by 80%.  
https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/news/bmw-and-redwood-partner-to-recycle-lithium-ion-batteries/

—-
CANADA
 
The end of Q3 push is on in Canada! 🇨🇦
This video shows the long lineup of customers waiting to take delivery yesterday at @Tesla Etobicoke.
The photo is of an equally long lineup in Vancouver from earlier this week.
Ever seen anything like this at a legacy dealership? …
9/15/24, https://x.com/driveteslaca/status/1835355151307325938
🎥 12 sec clip, & pic, at the link.

   —-
Daniel Breton [President and CEO of Electric Mobility Canada]
 
Total GHG emissions from 4 efficient vehicles purchased in 2024 and driven 250,000 km in Nova Scotia.
 
- Toyota Camry 4 cyl.: 55,000 kg
- Toyota Camry hybrid: 36,750 kg
- Toyota Prius Prime: 15,188 kg (driven at least 80% on electricity)
- Tesla Model 3 RWD: 12,742 kg
 
9/15/24, https://x.com/dbretonemc_mec/status/1835294535661887901

—-
Kia is targeting Tesla owners with a new conquest cash incentive, offering them up to $1,500 to switch from their Tesla to a new Kia EV.
 
Kia Will Slash The Price Of A New EV6 Or EV9 If You Drive A Tesla
Add up the incentives and you could get up to $9,000 off if you already own or lease a Tesla.
https://insideevs.com/news/733183/kia-ev6-ev9-price-cut-from-tesla/

—-
Ram ICE pickup truck sales in the U.S. have frozen
 
Ram is IN SERIOUS TROUBLE. New 2025s are on dealer lots with a 3,000+ days supply 😂😂 that’s nearly a 10 year supply of 2025 pick up trucks 
5/17/24, 9:09 AM https://x.com/shefska/status/1791456064451330243
Textpic: Total 3645 for sale
 
The 2024s have a much more reasonable 71 days supply in the Washington DC metro area, but still … flooding dealers with 2025s when there’s still plenty of 2024s on their lots 🤯
5/17/24, https://x.com/shefska/status/1791456353904464199
Total 185 for sale.
 
Right on cue
5/17/24, https://x.com/shefska/status/1791487461295624258
Headline:  Dodge/RAM CEO Tim Kuniskis retires

—-
HYDROGEN
 
Germany:
Hydrogen cars and trucks, and especially the hydrogen trains in Lower Saxony, are unable to refuel after a parked hydrogen fueling trailer caught fire “on the railings of the gas manufacturer Linde in the chemical park in Saxony-Anhalt.”
 
“As an immediate measure, Linde has temporarily withdrawn the hydrogen trailers of the same series from service as a precautionary measure. Only when more reliable information about the cause of the damage is available will a decision be made about their further use. This is probably also the main reason why H2 refuelling stations cannot currently be supplied with hydrogen.”
 
https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1834261138189566195
 
https://x.com/bassonbrain/status/1834254300807086344
 
https://x.com/bassonbrain/status/1833925815991697763
 
German hydrogen network runs into supply problems
https://www.electrive.com/2024/09/12/german-hydrogen-network-runs-into-supply-problems/

—-
Shares of Nikola Plunged Again This Week. Here's Why.
Fri, Sep 6, 2024

Nikola (NASDAQ: NKLA) -- yes, this company is still publicly traded -- slipped over 20% yet again this week, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. The hydrogen-electric truck start-up keeps inflating its shares outstanding, insiders keep selling, and the company is nowhere near close to generating a profit. No wonder the stock is down over 99% from all-time highs. …

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shares-nikola-plunged-again-week-211233520.html

[Sigmetnow]

SOFTWARE
 

Volkswagen is going to save Rivian! Woohoo! $5 billion investment
 
Also, Volkswagen is so broke they want to shut down their own factories in Germany

9/2/24, https://x.com/wholemarsblog/status/1830636006607081899
 
NEWS: The FT reports that VW management was working on the Rivian JV without involving Cariad senior executives. Cariad is VW's entity in which VW housed all software activities and would intuitively be a natural party involve in such a deal.
However… I was in similar situations and confidentiality is of utmost importance until the deal crosses the finishing line.
 
Headline pic: Volkswagen’s $5Bn Rivian Tie-up prompts dismay at software division.
 
Involving Cariad would have been a too big leak risk. An early leak could have easily derailed the deal. Also, Cariad was motivated to derail such a deal since Cariad's and thus Cariad management's importance invariably diminishes with Rivian on board.
For this reason, I too would have adviced VW to keep the team to an absolute minimum.
 
However, VW management likely onboarded a handful of key technical experts below Cariad management under NDA, if such software expertise was not available in the rest of the group or used outside advisors.
 
One thing is sure: the relationship between VW management and Cariad likely hit a new low since the Rivian announcement.
 
VW has sunk over $6.7B into Cariad for getting very little in return.
9/9/24, https://x.com/alojoh/status/1833101716008439983
⬇️  VW CARIAD graph below.

—-
This is the UI in the new Nissan Ariya which costs the same as a Tesla Model Y
9/9/24, ➡️ https://x.com/niccruzpatane/status/1833165390135894172
30 sec. Crude, on a small screen.
< Wtf....is that a Garmin from 2005?
<< pretty much

 
—- CHARGING
 
Here's what the new 2025 Hyundai's Ioniq 5 native NACS port looks like charging at a V4 @Tesla Supercharger. No adapters 😎 
9/3/24, ➡️  https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1830988268126773532
9 sec. Native NACS!  With an unusual squares/triangle pattern next to the port.

—-
Beginning Sept 18, Tesla's Supercharger network is now officially open to GM EVs throughout the U.S. & Canada!
Over 200,000 General Motors EVs will now be able charge at over 17,800 Tesla Superchargers throughout North America.
 
But unlike Ford, which is offering free adapters to be able to charge on Tesla's Supercharger network, GM is charging $225 per adapter, and GM says that usage of a non-GM adapter violates warranty.
 
GM EV Drivers Will Have Access to Even More Public Chargers with the Addition of Over 17,800 Tesla Superchargers
https://news.gm.com/newsroom.detail.html/Pages/news/us/en/2024/sep/0918-nacs.html

—-
NEWS: Lucid announced today that the Lucid Gravity will be directly equipped with a NACS charging connector, allowing access to 15,000+ Superchargers.

The Lucid Gravity is scheduled for start of production later this year.
9/10/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1833510867490541589
 
That’s gotta sting…. CEO Rawlinson often claimed Lucid’s charging system was much better than Tesla’s, and that Lucid tech was years ahead.  Problem is, in general, non-Tesla chargers in the U.S. are… not good.
 
First look at the Lucid Gravity with the NACS port directly integrated, enabling direct access to over 17,000 @Tesla Superchargers in North America.
9/10/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1833529370847416711
⬇️ Image below

[Sigmetnow]

Germany and China

Sept 4, 2024
—- VW Group's CFO spoke to employees today: "We still have a year, maybe two years, to turn things around. But we have to make use of this time."
 
"Simultaneously, we need to reduce the complexity of our processes and leverage even more group synergies."
 
"We have been spending more money at the brand than we earn for some time now. That doesn't go well in the long term. If we carry on like this, we won't succeed in the transformation."
 
"It is our joint responsibility to improve the cost efficiency of the German sites in particular. We need to increase productivity and reduce costs."
9/4/24, https://x.com/alojoh/status/1831327243823407263
 
—-
Audi factory closure plans spark protest by over 5,000 workers near European Parliament

Thousands of workers descended on Brussels on Monday, causing disruptions near the European Parliament as they set off firecrackers and blocked streets in a large-scale demonstration.
 
The protest was organized to show solidarity with employees at an Audi factory in Brussels facing potential job cuts as part of the shift toward greener technologies. …

https://invezz.com/news/2024/09/16/audi-factory-closure-plans-spark-protest-by-over-5000-workers-near-european-parliament/

   —-
NEWS: Nio is in talks with VW Group/Audi to acquire their factory in Belgium.
Nio aims to produce in Europe to avoid the EU tariffs on imported EVs from China.
 
Nio in Talks to Buy Audi’s Factory in Belgium

Electric vehicle maker Nio is considering acquiring Audi’s factory in Belgium as part of its strategy to establish local production in Europe and avoid European Commission tariffs on imported Chinese EVs.
 
If the additional duties are confirmed by the 27 EU states next week, Nio will face a tariff of over 20% on each car. The company currently operates two manufacturing plants in Hefei, China, with a third under construction. …

https://eletric-vehicles.com/nio/nio-in-talks-to-buy-audis-factory-in-belgium/

——
 

Alex @alex_avoigt
 
The crisis at VW is already showing the first results and the 🇩🇪 German Minister for Economic Affairs has announced that tax breaks will be introduced to support the sale of BEVs.
 
Harbeck ‘We are currently preparing further tax breaks for e-cars as part of the growth initiative’, which will be discussed in the cabinett on Wednesday.

9/3/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1831110622764741041

New subsidies for BEVs in 🇩🇪 Germany to apply retroactively
 
According to a draft law by the German government, which is available to DPA, companies are to receive a special depreciation allowance for newly registered all-electric and comparable zero-emission vehicles with retroactive effect from 1 July 2024.
 
This measure is limited until the end of 2028 and is intended to help accelerate investment in electric vehicles. In addition, the so-called cap for the gross list price, which is relevant for the tax relief for company cars, will be raised from 70,000 € to 95,000 €, which is a sign that the high-priced BEVs from German car manufacturers in particular are to be subsidised.
 
Specifically, the aim is to introduce a special tax depreciation allowance for companies for newly registered all-electric and comparable zero-emission vehicles with retroactive effect from 1 July 2024.
9/4/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1831404365602529571

—-
ICYMI
The ‘glory days’ for global automakers in China are over
Sep 4, 2024

Foreign automakers have dominated China’s car market for decades, selling millions of vehicles and raking in enormous profits. That golden era is now coming to an abrupt end.
 
The rapid rise of China’s homegrown electric vehicle (EV) makers, such as BYD and Xpeng (XPEV), is upending the largest passenger car market on the planet and leaving the world’s biggest carmakers on the losing end. …
 
Tesla had a “halo effect” on Chinese EV makers, such as BYD, Neo, and Li Auto, which had been steadily improving their electric cars over several years and were ready to capitalize on the sudden spike in demand. …
 
The latest sign of the steep challenges facing traditional automakers came Monday, when Volkswagen warned it could close plants in Germany for the first time in its history, in an effort to cut costs. …

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/glory-days-global-automakers-china-220020627.html

 ——
Western automakers, with one obvious exception (Tesla), have fallen so far behind in EV tech that the Chinese government has grown concerned with Chinese companies moving EV tech outside of China. 
Oh boy, how times have changed.
 
Bloomberg reported that China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) held a meeting with more than a dozen automakers and told them not to make any auto-related investments in India and strongly advised them to ensure that advanced EV technology stays at home. The government "encourage" (Chinese for forcing) Chinese automakers to export knock-down kits (KDKs): KDKs comprise domestically produced key components shipped abroad for final assembly.
 
A common misconception is that key components reflect the key technology. This is not the case. In most cases, the core technology lies in the production method. China doesn't want advanced production methods, unlocking low cost and highly competitive parts, to leave China.
9/12/24, https://x.com/alojoh/status/1834103564358103418

—-
< Swap managers, not batteries! >
 
China's NIO Says 40% Of Its Store Managers Are Ex-Tesla
• And 27% are from Li Auto
 
• Also: NIO’s new sub-brand Onvo, featuring more affordable EVs, is launching as its first product the L60, which includes the battery and is priced a bit lower than the Model Y starting price in China.
 
• Earlier this May, NIO reportedly reached an agreement with BYD to obtain batteries for the brand.
 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-nio-says-40-store-191315092.html/

[Sigmetnow]

EU emissions regulations
 
Alex @alex_avoigt
An internal paper from the European car industry warns of the loss of millions of jobs and billions of fines.
 
The internal letter that circulates states that the industry is not in a position to comply with an impending tightening of EU climate regulations. ‘As a result, the EU industry will face fines totaling billions.’ Those who want to avoid penalties have ‘little choice but to significantly reduce production, which threatens millions of jobs in the EU’, it says.
 
‘There are no pure combustion engines that emit less than 95.6 g CO2/km,’ it says. Even a hybrid - i.e. a car that has both an electric motor with a battery and an internal combustion engine - is unlikely to meet the limit value. However, as an average value is calculated, manufacturers can still theoretically remain below the limit value by authorizing electric cars, for example.
 
Isn't it interesting that the auto lobby is suddenly admitting that hybrids don't help much to reduce CO2 emissions - a fact they have been lobbying against for years?
 
In order to comply with the future limits for CO2 emissions, car manufacturers will have to sell an electric car for [every] 4 ICEs, but they are a long way from doing so and are therefore now trying to change the regulations instead of complying with them.
 . . .
 
The industry had more than enough time but instead of using it for the transition to BEVs they used it to make in the last 2 years 130 Billion of profits.
9/14/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1834906682335338684
 
 
NEWS: @renaultgroup CEO Luca de Meo said today that European automakers may have to pay 15 billion euros ($17.4 billion) in fines for carbon emissions or give up the production of more than 2.5 million vehicles.
 
EU CO₂ target average emissions from new vehicles in 2025 falls to 94 grams/km from 116 g/km in 2024 (19%)
 
“The speed of the electric ramp-up is half of what we would need to achieve the objectives that would allow us not to pay fines,” said de Meo
 
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/renault-ceo-says-sector-could-face-billions-fines-ev-sales-slow-2024-09-07/
 
9/7/24, https://x.com/ajtourville/status/1832438585632477570

 
If the 🇪🇺 EU's CO2 targets for 2025 applied today, only Geely and Tesla would fulfill them.
 
Source: Dataforce
 
9/15/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1835372079434141772
⬇️ graph

[NeilT]

They think Ursula is going to ride to their rescue along with the German government.

What they don't realise is that the entire EU Net Zero stands or falls on German automotive complying with the emissions regulations as set out.

More popcorn for this one.  Never enough popcorn.

[gerontocrat]

What they don't realise is that the entire EU Net Zero stands or falls on German automotive complying with the emissions regulations as set out.

Shock! Horror!
You surely can't mean the EU net zero strategy will fail!!
German (& EU) politicians will give way - the prospect of a collapse of legacy auto and mass unemployment is too scary.

BUT - there will be progress on energy transition in the transportation sector- just slower than necessary to prevent real climate pain. And in the end what will be left of the German legacy auto industry? Wipeout?

[NeilT]

What they don't realise is that the entire EU Net Zero stands or falls on German automotive complying with the emissions regulations as set out.

Shock! Horror!
You surely can't mean the EU net zero strategy will fail!!
German (& EU) politicians will give way - the prospect of a collapse of legacy auto and mass unemployment is too scary.

BUT - there will be progress on energy transition in the transportation sector- just slower than necessary to prevent real climate pain. And in the end what will be left of the German legacy auto industry? Wipeout?

I would never suggest such a thing.... 

But yes, if the industry does not transition, which they have been resisting, whilst China and much of the Asian markets do; then there is no future for German legacy auto.

[Sigmetnow]

< Swap managers, not batteries! >
…
• Also: NIO’s new sub-brand Onvo, featuring more affordable EVs, is launching as its first product the L60, which includes the battery and is priced a bit lower than the Model Y starting price in China.
 
• Earlier this May, NIO reportedly reached an agreement with BYD to obtain batteries for the brand.
 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-nio-says-40-store-191315092.html/

Later quote:

“Extended-range [EREV] and plug-in hybrid vehicles [PHEV] are indeed selling well at the moment, which I think is normal. However, for Nio and Onvo, we are still committed to the battery swap model.”

So now you will own your own battery…
     until the first time you swap it away.

Nio Will Only Consider Launching Extended-Range EVs When Tesla Does, CEO Says
https://eletric-vehicles.com/nio/nio-will-only-consider-launching-extended-range-evs-when-tesla-does-ceo-says/

[morganism]

‘Huge losses’: Sweden fears for future of batterymaker Northvolt

Government rules out bailout for key project in European green industrial transition as job cuts announced


Just three years ago, Sweden’s then prime minister, Stefan Löfven, visited Northvolt’s base near the Arctic Circle in Skellefteå – Europe’s first homegrown battery gigafactory – and declared the city “the future” in the fight against the climate crisis. Its work had huge significance for Sweden and the world, the Social Democrat said.

The arrival of the battery manufacturer was not only supposed to be a flagship project for Sweden’s “green industrial revolution” but hailed as Europe’s big hope against dependence on oil and imported batteries from China.

Since its foundation in 2016 to build “the world’s greenest battery”, Northvolt’s rapid rise has attracted billions of dollars of investment and orders from the world’s biggest car companies including Volkswagen, BMW and Volvo.

But as Europe’s electric car market struggles, much of this enthusiasm is starting to look like fantasy. In June, BMW cancelled a $2.5bn contract with Northvolt. And last week, amid a spiralling cashflow crisis, the battery manufacturer announced it was making 1,600 redundancies and suspending expansion of its Northvolt Ett factory in Skellefteå.
(more)

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/01/sweden-fears-for-future-of-batterymaker-northvolt

....
( i like the battery swap model of electric cars, solves the wait time, and range worries for owners)

[Sigmetnow]

—- New EV record in Norway

Electric cars recently overtook petrol cars in Norway. Now, another record has been set for new registrations: 96.4 per cent of all new cars registered in Norway in September were purely electric. It seems Norway's goal of 100 per cent EV registrations by 2025 is within reach.
 
The 12,495 new electric cars in September mean that the record market share of 94.3 per cent from August 2024 lasted only a short time. Across all drive types, 12,966 new cars hit the road in Norway. That means that just 471 of these new cars did not have a battery-electric drive, while 12,495 did. …

https://www.electrive.com/2024/10/01/new-ev-record-in-norway-2/

—-
Every third new car registered in Norway in September was a Tesla.
10/1/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1841160934640804028
 ⬇️ graph

Tesla says that there are now more than 60,000 Model Ys on the road in Norway.
Best-selling EV in the country.
"We were told EVs don't work in colder climates."
9/23/24, https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/1838198302925304072

Model Y is now the most registered BEV in 🇳🇴 Norway ever.
A title the Leaf had which was introduced in Norway 13 years ago.
9/14/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1834916593505083476

 
—- The Netherlands
 
BEV adoption reaches new record of 39.9%. 🇳🇱
The Netherlands reported 3,884 Tesla sales and 12.4% market share for September.
• Tesla best-selling brand
• Model Y best-selling car
• Year-to-date +45% over same period last year
10/1/24, https://x.com/piloly/status/1841065985681379773
 ⬇️ graph below, more at the link.
 
 
—- Sweden
 
Tesla increased its market share in Sweden in 2024 despite a labour conflict targeting it for almost a year.
Tesla sold 16,478 cars in Sweden in the first nine months of the year, up 1% YoY, lifting Tesla's market share to 8.5% in 2024 (from 7.8%).
 
Tesla raises Sweden market share despite labour strike
Reuters Tue, October 1, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-raises-sweden-market-share-103059155.html

Hand-written license plates on delivery-ready Teslas at the delivery center in Stockholm. The union has blocked the mail and the license plates for Tesla, but they get some of them, and if not, they have to hand write the numbers✍️
They have been approved this by the police👮
Then the Tesla owner then gets their license plate in the mailbox at home.

9/30/24, https://x.com/nicklasnilsso14/status/1840833067902009365
⬇️ photo below
 
—-
Tesla outsold VW Group in Sweden for Q3.
VW and Volvo (Geely) are traditionally the two top brands in Sweden, so this is particularly noteworthy.
 
9/27/24, https://x.com/nicklasnilsso14/status/1839590475126223083
⬇️ graph below. Data at the link.
 
 —- Also Sweden
 
NEWS: Battery giant Northvolt to cut 25% of its entire workforce in cost-cutting drive.
Roughly 1,600 employees will be let go, including 1,000 positions at its factory in Skellefteå in the north of the country.
 
“Cash-strapped company” will now focus on large-scale battery production; cutting corporate staff and cathode material plans; and delaying a 30 gigawatthour/yr factory expansion.
 
Battery giant Northvolt to cut 25% of workforce in Sweden as part of a major cost-cutting drive
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/23/battery-giant-northvolt-to-cut-25percent-of-swedish-workforce-in-cost-cutting-drive.html

 
—- Interview with VW Group CEO Blume
 
Blume “I would rather see myself (my performance) at a (school mark 1= very good to 6 = poor) four. A four is not hopeless.”
His assessment of the VW brand was even worse. "It's much more critical, and that's why we need to take action there in the short term."
 
VW Group CEO announced a cost-cutting package to be finalised this year. "We will tackle this very quickly in the coming weeks" Blume said. The aim is to draw up a corresponding package "this year’" This also includes possible site closures, Blume said in the interview. …
9/23/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1838260776332652864

—-
Volkswagen's German battery plant to stay at half capacity amid cost pressures
September 6, 2024
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagens-german-battery-plant-stay-half-capacity-amid-cost-pressures-2024-09-06/

VW Cuts Planned 🔋 Battery Production Capacity in Salzgitter by 50%
 
Although VW announced 6 of its own battery factories many years ago with the great marketing campaign and Power Co event, not a single one has been completed to date and most are not in construction.
 
The only battery production of VW globally is a small pilot production in Salzgitter, Germany which was planned to be expanded to a 40 GWh production plant. This planned production is now being reduced by 50% in capacity and only one line is now said to be constructed.
 
Group technology chief Thomas Schmall on Thursday showed a staff meeting a slide showing plans for just one production line at the plant totaling 20 GWh hours of capacity, a works council spokesperson said.

9/13/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1834571138250268949

—-
The 🇩🇪 German Minister of Economic Affairs Harbeck wants to discuss the current crisis with the automotive industry and also new subsidies, and he is inviting the entire automotive industry in Germany to attend.
< All?
Yes, all of them.
9/20/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1837234599451078808

⬇️  Images for:  Norway.  The Netherlands.  Sweden.  Sweden.