Electric cars

[Sigmetnow]

Colorado becomes the 10th state to join California’s ZEV program

After a three-day hearing, Colorado’s Air Quality Control Commission has decided to approve the adoption of a zero-emissions vehicle mandate. With this landmark decision, Colorado has become the 10th state to join California’s ZEV program, which is expected to improve air quality in the region while pushing automakers to expand their electric car offerings.

The adoption of the ZEV mandate, which requires carmakers to roll out more zero-emissions vehicles, was met with widespread support from members of the commission. The results of the vote was 8-1, with Commissioner Tom Gonzales being the sole official who opposed the mandate. Nevertheless, in a statement to The Colorado Sun, Commissioner Auden Schendler from Basalt noted that the ZEV mandate is but a modest step forward.

“This is an important step forward. But frankly, it’s a modest step. I think it’s as important for what it does as for what it signals. One of the big signals is the fact that auto manufacturers said we support it, this is technically feasible, we can move forward. I think it’s going to add energy to the emissions reduction effort just when we need it,” Schendler said.
...
The approval of Colorado’s ZEV mandate did not come without opposition. During the hearing, several auto dealers noted that they must purchase vehicles from manufacturers, and when cars don’t sell, they end up losing money every day, thanks in no small part to interest and maintenance on the vehicles themselves. Others added that Colorado residents purchase SUVs and pickups, and these are simply rare in EV form. Tim Jackson, president of the Colorado Automobile Dealers Association, argued that local dealerships stand to lose money if they give discounts to electric cars as well. ...

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-evs-colorado-joins-ca-zev-program/

[TerryM]

Heh


Sig
Does it seem to you as if for some reason, reason seems to go out the window when Tesla is discussed on the internet?
I've seen the same thing with re. few other subjects:


Global Warming
RIM & I-Phone
Russia & Ukraine
Putin
Trump the Candidate
Climate Change
Tesla
Russia & 2016
Trump the President
Musk
Russia Russia Russia
China


All of them seem to inspire people with very limited knowledge of the subject matter to post opinions as facts, to resort to character assassination when attacking the facts might do more to further their cause, and to treat any that question their position as an enemy.


There are undoubtedly other subjects that elicit this kind of response, but I'll be damned it I can find the common denominator.


Some are of huge importance, some less, and at least one, the Rim vs I-Phone dustup never meant much either way.
It seems like the D K effect writ large. It's not just the less expert that shout from the highest windows, it's those with no knowledge of the matter at all that post in bolded caps screaming that the conspirators are at the gates.


I'm honestly befuddled by the way they have & are playing out. I am very sure that in every instance perceptions matter much more than facts.
Terry

[oren]

I think the gross load including the truck itself was ~75,000 pounds.
And I recall doing calcs here in 2017 or 2018 showing that the added tare truck weight compared to ICE was a few thousand pounds (2000? 5000?). Will redig.

[Sigmetnow]

Very brief, but slightly better-reasoned calculations for the semi tractor in this podcast, starting around 5 minutes in, puts the concrete blocks at 42,200 pounds and semi truck and trailer around 32,800 pounds.

https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/tesla-daily-tesla-news-analysis/e/63256078

[TerryM]

I think the gross load including the truck itself was ~75,000 pounds.
And I recall doing calcs here in 2017 or 2018 showing that the added tare truck weight compared to ICE was a few thousand pounds (2000? 5000?). Will redig.

That's the way the original article read. But where did they find a little flatbed trailer like that weighing 15k pounds? The original article was BS, those that followed compounded the problems in spades.


Max weight for an 18 wheeler is 80k# so a 75k#load would only leave a max of 5k# for the tractor, the battery & the trailer.
The weight of a Model x suv is given as  5,421# the weight of a Model s car at 4,647#.


Teslarati (pro Tesla site) estimated the E-Semi battery to weigh 6,000#
The same article estimates the tractor at #4,000 more than a conventional cab.
https://www.teslarati.com/how-much-tesla-semi-truck-battery-pack-weigh/
Some of the commenters (truckers) found the weight estimates highly suspect.


Those copying and pasting the original screed had no idea what they were writing about.
Is anyone still believing that the truck can be fully charged in 1/2 hour?
Terry


Edit] Sig sorry about the cross post.
Until we see a production unit we're all tilting at windmills.
Coming off Donner in either direction at >40 Mph isn't legal or safe.
Old trucking rule of thumb, "come down in the same gear @ a lower speed"

[Tom_Mazanec]

TerryM:
re: « Reply #401 on: Today at 05:44:13 PM »
I see this in all kinds of issues. I am 61 and it gets worse every year. I feel it bodes ill for the future.

[Sigmetnow]

Is anyone still believing that the truck can be fully charged in 1/2 hour?

That is a completely separate question!  However, the prototype semi has been seen charging from four separate superchargers at one time... and we know that a “mega charger“ has been designed specifically for quick-charging tesla semi’s.  Please see the article below:

Close-up look at the Tesla Semi
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-megacharger-charging-port-close-up-look/

[Sigmetnow]

I do not know how serious the consequences of a bad Brexit the people in the U.K. anticipate.  But the prospect of fuel shortages could make the idea of an electric car all the more attractive. 

UK faces food, fuel and drugs shortages in no-deal Brexit: Times, citing official documents - Reuters

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain will face shortages of fuel, food and medicine if it leaves the European Union without a transition deal, jamming ports and requiring a hard border in Ireland, official government documents leaked to the Sunday Times show. ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu/uk-faces-food-fuel-and-drugs-shortages-in-no-deal-brexit-times-citing-official-documents-idUSKCN1V70M6

[TerryM]

TerryM:
re: « Reply #401 on: Today at 05:44:13 PM »
I see this in all kinds of issues. I am 61 and it gets worse every year. I feel it bodes ill for the future.

Tom
I get caught up in them myself quite regularly, but recognize that it represents a growing insanity that's somehow infected our collective conscience.
Terry

[oren]

The 75k# load is of course BS. No 80k# truck can carry such a load. But I can see how low level "journalism" would make such an error. Lost in translation.
When you test a semi up a pass, it makes sense to use 75k# gross weight as your test point.

[Sigmetnow]

The 75k# load is of course BS. No 80k# truck can carry such a load. But I can see how low level "journalism" would make such an error. Lost in translation.
When you test a semi up a pass, it makes sense to use 75k# gross weight as your test point.

The secret is revealed:  they added SpaceX thrusters to the semi, to increase range and decrease weight! 

[Sigmetnow]

BMW cuts niche models and pins its hopes on volume sellers to survive.

BMW will cancel several models to cut expenses, says report
Convertibles are out, and SUVs are in
https://www.autoblog.com/amp/2019/07/30/bmw-cancel-models-report/

—-
Whereas VW acts like it still hasn‘t figured out EVs at all.

#PEBBLEBEACH: Further Proof VW Has NO F!@#$%^& Clue What It's Doing, It's Debuting A Buggy In Monterey
  8/17/2019

Volkswagen and, more specifically, Volkswagen of America (VWoA) is a total joke.
It's just so perplexing how this company can get so many things wrong. And continue to miss. BIG TIME.

For eons the automaker has been showing concept VW vans and busses. They're all cool but never see the light of the day. In addition, the German automaker continues to trot out dune buggy concepts that I've never understood.  I can understand the VW Bus because there's a huge community that loves the vintage ones and would LOVE an all-new Bus. #VanLife, right?

But the buggy is probably one of the most peculiar things VW continues to try and hang its hat on. And, if that weren't bad enough, the marque is rolling out a newer concept buggy — that no one cares about — at Pebble Beach.

Did VW not get the memo?

Can someone please just raze VW's headquarters in Wolfsburg and Herndon, and turn it into a parking lot? Just do us a favor and divest the brands that are actually doing good work first.

Oh, and you can learn more about the buggy below….

http://www.autospies.com/news/PEBBLEBEACH-Further-Proof-VW-Has-NO-F-Clue-What-It-s-Doing-It-s-Debuting-A-Buggy-In-Monterey-99980/

[TerryM]

The 75k# load is of course BS. No 80k# truck can carry such a load. But I can see how low level "journalism" would make such an error. Lost in translation.
When you test a semi up a pass, it makes sense to use 75k# gross weight as your test point.

The secret is revealed:  they added SpaceX thrusters to the semi, to increase range and decrease weight! 

Or we could haul live birds & beat the sides of the trailer just ahead of the weigh scale!
Terry

[oren]

Is the BYD using one of those batteries that don't catch fire, and that can be recharged in ~1min.?
...
Not sure of the brand, but that's basically the battery tech that they're using for the Toronto Bus Service. They charge them with a catenary setup while people are getting on and off.

Smaller battery, less weight, safe enough for public transportation.

Terry, I believe you are referring to a big capacitor. There are some experimental buses here with this technology. I don't know much about it but I get the feeling it's not a long term solution (maybe cost?). I'll try to dig something up.

No
The battery was developed or sold by a chinese/canadian firm out of Winnipeg, where they have a large fleet of them. I believe Toronto has 40 of them running.

Not a capacitor, just a very rapid charging battery without an exothermic reaction.

Hopefully I'll find a link for you when I wake up.

Terry, I hate to break the news to you***, with your strange aversion of this technology, but it seems the Toronto Bus Service is using plain old Li-ion with rapid chargers. The 1-min figure is untrue.
6-minutes rapid charging (at 450Kw) for a partial range, up to 3.2 hours for full range.
Exothermic of course, has a thermal management system.
Still, considered safe for public transportation, even when charging while people are boarding.
Please follow my detective work via the links and quotes below.
*** That's a lie. I am actually very happy to be of service in dispelling myths and misunderstandings.

Note: you probably meant the BYD Canada buses. TTC is getting buses from 3 companies (the 3rd is Proterra). I will try to dig up BYD as well, but I am quite certain they use similar tech.

https://www.newflyer.com/2019/05/the-way-we-were-wires-and-tires-electric-buses-return-to-t-o-streets/

The TTC's first Battery Electric Bus, New Flyer Industries' XE40 Xcelsior CHARGE, arrived at the TTC's Arrow Road Garage on April 14, 2019.

https://www.newflyer.com/buses/xcelsior-charge/

Flexible Charging
Xcelsior CHARGE has a range of up to 225 miles (466 km) on a single charge. The on-route rapid charger provides unlimited range, and a means for the Xcelsior CHARGE to stay in service 24 hours a day. New Flyer is pleased to offer both plug in charging and on-route charging solutions that meet industry standards, and are interoperable with other electric vehicles.

https://www.newflyer.com/site-content/uploads/2019/06/Xcelsior-CHARGE-web.pdf

Plug-In Charging
Plug-in chargers are available as a supplement or alternative to on-route rapid chargers and can be used for overnight, mid-day and off-route charging. A full charge requires 3.2 hours for a 466 kWh ESS.
Range Capability
The 40’ Xcelsior CHARGE™ has a range of up to 225 miles (466 kWh)* on a single charge, but with on-route, charging range is unlimited.
* Range per FTA Altoona test protocol - HVAC off
On-Route Charging
The on-route rapid charger provides the means for the Xcelsior CHARGE™ to stay in service 24 hours daily. To charge, the bus stops underneath the charger and the pantograph makes contact with the charge bars.

Six minutes of rapid recharge time with a 450 kWh charger equals 1.5 hours of operation.

Energy Storage Systems
Industry-leading range capability from 160 kWh to 466 kWh of electricity.
US Battery Suppliers: XALT Energy and A123 Systems.
Battery configuration available for long-range depot charging and on-route high-power charging.
Monitored by a battery management system for added protection, longevity, and charging efficiency.
Thermal management for maximum battery life in rapid charge applications and extreme ambient temperatures.

https://www.xaltenergy.com/project/electric-commercial-transportation/

The Solution
XALT Energy is helping to lead the way. We work side by side with fleet owners, operators, system integrators and OEMs to design and deliver lithium-ion systems for a wide variety of vehicles. Our combination of high energy, high power and high-rate charging makes our systems perfectly suited for bus systems and delivery vehicles. Those systems offer:

Time-tested and proven lithium-ion chemistries
Long cycle life
High energy & high power
High energy & power density
Lower total cost of ownership

[KiwiGriff]

Pretty much what I proposed on the Tesla thread for their trucks.
Grazing rather than bulk charging to avoid tapering the charge rate as Resistance increases. Their Charge C rate is not  even as high as Tesla is getting with supercharger v3.
https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/what_is_the_c_rate
Capacitors may have a future role in temporary storage of some of the charge when rapid charging then bleeding it into the battery over time or for regenerative use doing the same.
They will not work as motive storage as they do not hold charge long  or efficiently enough and are not as energy dense as a battery.

[bluice]

I don't bother to look up for sources because I guess all this is common knowledge by now: New car sales are down globally, car makers are struggling and heavily car-manufacturing dependent German industrial production went into decline.

Granted, we are past the peak of this business cycle and there are trade wars and whatnot cooking, but my 2 cents is that we are also seeing the (not so) weak signals of the coming vehicle market disruption. Many people simply don't want to invest in a new ICE car any more because they are seen as becoming obsolete. While EVs are still pretty expensive and the technology feels unfamiliar, many choose to wait and just drive their old car a bit longer.

I'm pretty sure the transformation will be bigger than changing the family sedan powertrain from petrol/diesel to electric though. In 10-20 years the personal transportation system will look very different from today. The era of almost every household owning one or more family sedans is likely to be over surprisingly soon.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Bluice:
If we get self-driving cars in this timeframe, that is a slam dunk. People will just call up a car on their smartphones (or their smart specs) and use a car when they want. Cars won’t be sitting around 23 hours a day, and there will be a lot fewer of them.

[TerryM]

<snipped>
I'm pretty sure the transformation will be bigger than changing the family sedan powertrain from petrol/diesel to electric though. In 10-20 years the personal transportation system will look very different from today. The era of almost every household owning one or more family sedans is likely to be over surprisingly soon.

A good post that doesn't deserve the crude snipping I inflicted.


I'm curious as to why you see our love affair with the car ending so rapidly?
It's something I would certainly applaud, but not something I see as realistic without huge infrastructural investments that I don't see the West having the stomach, or the bankroll for.


Provide a community with free buses that offer very comfortable transportation at no personal cost - and some may put the 2nd car up on blocks.
Additionally provide heavily subsidized fast, silent & damn near opulent rail service to communities within say a hundred mile radius and some of those 2nd cars will be sold on the auction block.
Very High Speed Rail @ very reasonable costs that can whisk business travelers, visitors and tourists across continents might provide the final spike in sedan ownership, the retrofitting of adjoining garages into guest quarters, recreation rooms, home-offices or private lounges/bars.


Baring the widespread adoption of these initially expensive projects - which I don't see as realistic in the short term - I can't think of why Americans people would give up their familiar transportation option before there is something to take its place.


Recession/depression will keep the purchasing public away from new car dealerships in droves, but most of the cars now on the road can be patched up and have perhaps 10 or 15 years of possibly useful life in them.


Many today will let the baby go hungry while paying to license the 2nd car.
What do you see that would change that mindset in so short a time?
Terry

[bluice]

I think it may actually take quite a long time for fully autonomous self driving cars to become common. I could be wrong of course and some kind of mobility-as-a-service model will probably break before self driving cars.

I’m certain however that the disruption has already started and EVs are driving it. Once EVs get more common people get used to them and our present fixation with range and charging speed will look funny and terribly old fashioned.

[TerryM]

I think it may actually take quite a long time for fully autonomous self driving cars to become common. I could be wrong of course and some kind of mobility-as-a-service model will probably break before self driving cars.

I’m certain however that the disruption has already started and EVs are driving it. Once EVs get more common people get used to them and our present fixation with range and charging speed will look funny and terribly old fashioned.

I believe that there is presently at least one brand that has met the rigorous EU standards for self driving with no human input required.
Not available on this side of the pond of course, but it's a start - if that is your prefered destination.


I've had enough troubles adjusting to Canadian drivers.


Terry

[bluice]

Terry, it’s probably different in America but here in Europe as well as in Asia cities are generally quite compact and public transportation service is anything from decent to excellent.


However I think the fundamental reason to ditch the family car will be economical. We all know how inefficient method of transportation a car is, sitting idle 95% of time, losing value it’s owner has worked so hard to create. What we need is the flexibility of the motor car without the burden of investment and technology may well get us there. Already we have bikes and electric scooters that can be hired using a smartphone app and we know millenials like to use things but not necessarily own them.

[blumenkraft]

Hey Bluice,

here was a study recently in Berlin. They did not see any reduction in newly registered cars after a car-sharing system was established in the city. Which makes me question the premise that self-driving cars would reduce the car intensity per se. The car-sharing cars came on top.

Another counterargument would be that most cars are used during the rush hours. You would need just as many self-driving taxies than cars in the rush hour today.

I hope you are right though. We need to bring down the number of cars dramatically even if they are electric.

[TerryM]

Hey Blu&Blumen!


Have we stumbled onto an interesting subset of the electric cars thread?


I'd like to explore the rush hour problem a little further.


I lived in Las Vegas for decades, and I-15, our connection to Southern California was bumper to bumper every Friday and every Sunday. Friday it was the northbound lanes - Sunday they jammed up the southerly lanes.


If they were Robocabs they'd find little to do during the intervening days. Casino owners don't really want their customers taking scenic drives through the desert when they could be gambling away the baby's college funds at the tables.


So what is a Robocab to do?
Siestas while dreaming of Electric Sheep can't last through the whole weekend, and finding a shaded parking spot, safe from the homeless and the hopeless might not be easy.


Free safe shaded parking has been an enticement offered by all of the majors for decades. Whether they'll be as keen to provide this for a non-gambling migratory Robocab remains to be seen - but it seems very unlikely.


Any vehicle left in the desert sun deteriorates - the best dashboards peal within one season.


So what will our abandoned Robots do?
They can't troll for fares because the Taxi Authority will impound them in a hot flash & their California Plates will be like waving waving a red flag in front of an overeager agent.
The A/C can keep them from cooking, but A/Cs burn a lot of fuel. Who pays that bill?


Robocabs cruising the strip just clog up an already overtaxed system. The good city fathers will ban them from tourist areas after one bad weekend. The problem is that if you ban them from tourist zones they become nusances on residential streets, or victims in shadier neighborhoods.


I'm sure that every destination community will face similar problems.


In the meantime will LA be feeling a Robocab shortage whenever 50 or 100k of them head out of town for a Boxing Match, a Poker Tournament or CES?
Do we overbuild the fleet (and lower revenue/vehicle), or allow potential customers to complain about terrible service?
Probably some combination of the above.


E-Cabs are already with us - even though what was to have been the largest Tesla rental fleet in Germany just canceled further orders because of problems noted with their initial order.
Robo-Cabs may become more than a gleam in Elon's eye. But a million by next year? That's just not even remotely possible.


I don't think they'll ever make up enough of our transportation mix to cause a noticeable problem. But.....
Terry

[blumenkraft]

There is an easy solution for that, Terry.

The robocar obviously has solar cells all over. It's fresh and cool inside. Also, the battery is just at the right temperature. Roby can also drive home alone with the energy he is harvesting. 

[TerryM]

^^
Duck, and stay down until that herd of flying pigs has flocked off!


Terry

[oren]

When you know there are super-cheap robo cabs at every destination and at your ever whim (if and when they materialize), you and everyone else can take the bus when you go out of town. No more rush hour, no idling for the robots in the desert sun.

Terry - did you see my Toronto E-Bus write-up?

[TerryM]

When you know there are super-cheap robo cabs at every destination and at your ever whim (if and when they materialize), you and everyone else can take the bus when you go out of town. No more rush hour, no idling for the robots in the desert sun.

Terry - did you see my Toronto E-Bus write-up?

oren
I did and it is/was a fair assessment.


It was the LiFePo4 batteries I'd was referencing and I'm just not able to do the research needed today - or probably for the rest of this week.


I wake up
Zip off a few posts
Then find myself waking up again


Sorry for the inconvenience this is causing.
My memory's a bit "gappy" at the moment, so if you'd remind me again after a week or so (if I haven't done anything about it) I'd very much appreciate it.


Terry

[Sigmetnow]

Wow.  VW’s software fix, to assure its cars are not (overly) polluting... contains a cheat that allows more polluting.

Volkswagen’s Dieselgate software fix has another cheat device: German court

It appears that Volkswagen’s high-profile Dieselgate scandal won’t let go of the veteran German automaker just yet. In a recent decision, a district court in Düsseldorf, Germany has declared that Volkswagen’s software fix for vehicles affected by its Dieselgate emissions cheating scandal that broke in 2015 actually contained another cheating device.

With this development, the carmaker could face a new wave of claims from hundreds of thousands of car buyers whose vehicles were supposedly addressed by the Dieselgate software fix. This could also result in an equally large number of Volkswagen diesel owners receiving compensation over the company’s newly-discovered emissions manipulation efforts.

According to the findings of the Düsseldorf district court, Volkswagen’s Dieselgate software fix was intended to ensure that the emissions of vehicles affected by the scandal were appropriately controlled. Unfortunately, it turned out that the exhaust gas cleaning system in the update only worked at outside temperatures between 10-32 degrees Celsius. In the event that the weather falls below or above this range, the cleaning remains disabled, allowing the affected vehicles to overly-pollute as before.

The district court noted that the cheat devices in the software fix would affect diesel-powered vehicles from Volkswagen, Audi, Seat, and Skoda. The defeat device in the software fix of the original Dieselgate defeat device has only been announced by the Düsseldorf court recently, which means that a notable number of vehicles that were supposedly fixed by Volkswagen continue to emit more harmful emissions until today. ...

https://www.teslarati.com/volkswagen-dieselgate-software-fix-cheat-device/

[Sigmetnow]

Image below.

Tesla Driver (@M_xalher) 8/19/19, 3:12 PM
“Luxury car sales HALVED”, as Norwegians dump diesel and petrol SUVs and flock to EVs from @Tesla and other.
Audi -92%
BMW - 78%
Porsche -53%
Front page of business daily Finansavisen now.

https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1163529180782501890
- Osborne effect in full effect!
No one wants a diesel or petrol, and even if they did they would not buy one because they will be impossible to sell in 3 years.
- Text next to picture says “Audi sales are plummeting, but the eTron is one of the bright spots.”

ICYMI:
The Osborne Effect On The Auto Industry
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/25/the-osborne-effect-on-the-auto-industry/
   
Top BEV manufacturers in Western Europe YTD - by July 2019:
   •   Tesla: 49,200 (27% share)
   •   Renault: 28,000 (around 15%)
   •   Hyundai Group (Hyundai and Kia): around 25,000
   •   VW Group: around 23,000
   •   Nissan: around 20,000
https://insideevs.com/news/365954/tesla-sold-50000-electric-cars-europe/

[Sigmetnow]

The tide has turned.  ICE vehicle emissions are no longer just accepted as normal and unavoidable. 

S. Korea to ban Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche cars in emissions scandal

South Korea will ban domestic sales of eight models of Audi, Volkswagen and Porsche diesel cars for violating emissions regulations, the Ministry of Environment said Tuesday.

The ministry said it will also slap fines on Audi Volkswagen Korea and Porsche Korea and seek a prosecution investigation.

The ministry's probe has found that the German automakers manipulated pollution control devices used in those vehicles. A total of 1,261 cars in the eight models were sold in South Korea from May 2015 to January last year.

"They were manipulated so that the emission mitigation devices perform at lower levels in driving conditions that are different from those when they were certificated," a ministry official said. …

http://m.koreaherald.com/amp/view.php?ud=20190820000719

[Sigmetnow]

The much-anticipated electric Mercedes van!
But: 90kWh battery, and 405km/250miles of range?  That would be 222Wh/km or 360 kWh/mile.  About the same as a Tesla Model X, and much better than an e-tron or I-PACE….  Doubtful.
It may only be available in Europe.

The 2020 Mercedes-Benz EQV Beats Tesla And Volkswagen To The Electric Van Game
https://jalopnik.com/the-2020-mercedes-benz-eqv-beats-tesla-and-volkswagen-t-1837403191/

[oren]

I have reccalculated Terry's numbers comparing ICE cost per mile with EV cost per mile, for my own situation.
As a reminder, Terry's numbers came out to $0.08/mile for his VW Passat (35 MPG) and $0.03/mile for a Tesla M3 LR using home charging, with $0.07/mile for long trips out of town using Tesla superchargers.

My family uses a European-made mini-minivan with 7 seats (folding 3rd row), averaging 15,000 km per year, 9320 miles. 95%+ of the mileage is city driving, with lots of traffic and idling, and A/C on about half the time. Claimed fuel economy is 17 km/L (40 MPG, better for highway, worse for city), but in real life under these conditions it achieves a measly 9 km/L (21 MPG).
The candidate EV with very similar size and spec is the Tesla Model Y SR with the 7-seat option. Its energy usage is claimed at around 0.22 kWh/mile (worse for highway, better for city), but I am using an ultra-conservative 0.29 kWh/mile due to the A/C, charging losses, and other factors. I assume only home charging since all our trips are deep within range.

Gasoline here is $1.8 per liter, $6.80 per gallon, thanks to a taxation policy internalizing the harm caused by fossil fuels. Residential electricity is charged at $0.155 per kWh.
It turns out the fuel cost of driving the ICE car is $0.2/km, or $0.32/mile. The fuel cost of driving the equivalent EV is $0.045/mile. The ratio is over 7:1, as opposed to Terry's 2.7:1, due to the changed circumstances (high gasoline taxes, congested city driving).
The total savings of the EV over the ICE are $2560 per year in my situation.

[Neven]

Why not a Nissan e-NV200 instead of a Model X?

[Sigmetnow]

Why not a Nissan e-NV200 instead of a Model X?

The “official” mpg-e for the e-NV200 is 153 — but that’s using NEDC protocol.  Next Green Car estimates a real-world figure would be 26.

https://www.nextgreencar.com/mpg/make-model/nissan/e-nv200/

[Sigmetnow]

In Tesla-Crazy Norway, the Electric Vehicle Revolution Is Already Here

In the first half of this year, electric vehicles made up 55% of personal vehicle sales in Norway, up from 6% in 2013, according to Rystad, an energy consultancy based in Oslo. That shift is largely due to a powerful mix of tax breaks and incentives to encourage Norwegians to go electric.

The death of diesel?
Those stats cap a dramatic transformation over the last six years. In the period, sales of diesel cars have dropped by 95%, the consultancy says, and the share of diesel vehicles in use has sunk to just 32%, almost half what it was in 2013. The share of gasoline-burning cars has dropped to 17%, down from 29%, according to Rystad.

"High-range battery electric cars have reduced the sales of high-end diesel vehicles, primarily SUVs and sedans, which are also the most energy-consuming private vehicles on the market," said Artyom Then, a senior analyst at Rystad.
…
"This summer, we drove around western Norway, and there were super chargers in the middle of nowhere," he says. "In the camping site, they had a super-charger, free of charge."

https://fortune.com/2019/08/21/tesla-electric-vehicles-norway/

Image below:  Small enclosed spaces can be utilized for EV parking where ICE vehicles would be problematic.

[oren]

Why not a Nissan e-NV200 instead of a Model X?

I need a versatile and comfortable and agile (and hopefully good looking) family-mobile with good range. The Nissan van doesn't fit the bill. The Model Y fits perfectly, when it's finally made available.
Model X is irrelevant, it's way too expensive, and too large as well.

[TerryM]

Sig
No doubt you're familiar with the recent release by Norway of complaints lodged against various auto companies.


Tesla was #1 - with 2.03 complaints /k cars and a fleet age of 2.1 years


BMW was in 3d place with 1.05. and an avg. age of 9.4 years


on the other end (and probably less expensive initially) was


VW at 13th with 0.44 complaints/k cars, and an avg. fleet age of 9.9 years


While I might understand Tesla having almost twice as many complaints/k car as BMW
the fact that owners are >4 times as likely to have complaints about their Tesla than their VW has to be a hard pill to swallow.


When the Tesla fleet has aged an additional 8 1/2 years what will these numbers look like?


How many Teslas will survive into their 2nd decade?


I know Elon says that they're good for a million miles - but Elon says a lot of things.
Terry

[TerryM]

oren
Thanks for posting some numbers that fit your circumstances.


My most recent ride was a 15 yr old Dodge Grand Caravan 7 seater. My mileage was better than yours - though not by very much, and our gasoline here in Canada is quite a bit cheaper.


I think in the years I drove it I only had all 7 seats filled on 4 occasions.
It hauled 8 canoes with ease, but it's greatest claim to fame was acting as a bedroom during occasional long trips.


It's difficult to square the expense of poor gas mileage with the savings (and convenience) of not requiring a motel every night.
It drove from Mexico to Canada, then back and forth across Canada twice, with 1 journey into Northern Quebec in the >250k miles (400k kilometers), that it lasted.
Very few problems prior to the last 2k miles, then everything began failing. - Time for a new used vehicle. edit - the motor/drive train, A/C and computer never gave ANY problems (one bad oxy sensor that cost <$20) - everything else just began falling apart.
I frankly hadn't expected this much from an American brand. They're much better than they were when I switched to Japanese vehicles.


EV's may be the future, no one knows at this early stage.
Terry
I haven't forgotten the buses

[Sigmetnow]

Terry,

Now sort those numbers by how long the company has been in business in Norway.  Most of the Norway complaints relate to slow service, and Tesla, just starting the Model 3 invasion, is ramping up the number of its service centers, plus mobile service for the increasing number of calls it finds can be addressed at the owner’s home or place of work. 

The future looks bright!

[blumenkraft]

EVs are a new technology. Tesla is a new company. BMW is building cars for a very long time.

I actually think 2 opposed to 1 per thousand complaints is not enough to scare away the early adopters. Even the most pro-Tesla YT channels/podcasts/blogs oftentimes mention how shitty Tesla service is. It's no secret really.

[oren]

EV's may be the future, no one knows at this early stage. 

Terry, in heavy city traffic EVs are a no brainer. Most people live in countries that are much more densely populated than the US, not to mention Canada. A majority of the driving world population is urbanized or on its way to become urbanized. I am certain EVs are the future, though it is quite conceivable that ICE will (unfortunately) continue serving many niche applications and driving scenarios.
It will probably take 5-10 years and a real commitment by at least one of the legacy automakers, probably VW, to become a widely recognized reality.

[rboyd]

EV's may be the future, no one knows at this early stage.

Terry, in heavy city traffic EVs are a no brainer. Most people live in countries that are much more densely populated than the US, not to mention Canada. A majority of the driving world population is urbanized or on its way to become urbanized. I am certain EVs are the future, though it is quite conceivable that ICE will (unfortunately) continue serving many niche applications and driving scenarios.
It will probably take 5-10 years and a real commitment by at least one of the legacy automakers, probably VW, to become a widely recognized reality.

Very true of Europe, even more of China where "range anxiety" is much less of an issue given the availability of high speed trains for long distance travel rather than driving for many hours at a much lower speed. Would be excellent for China's next 5 year plan to state a date for 100% EV market share and a ban on ICEs. That would have a huge impact on the global car industry given that the likes of Volkswagen and BMW sell between 40% and 50% of all their production there.

[TerryM]

EV's have been around now for what 100 years?


The "Galt Mobile" was a pre WW1 hybrid, that a friend's (great?)grandfather built and promoted.


I'm not sure that any personal vehicles will survive until the crunch. I am sure that until the grid produces clean electricity they'll have difficulty competing with low polluting, high mileage ICE variants.


I lived in California when All Electric Homes were being promoted. It didn't take long for owners to see that they were paying far too much to heat their water and to heat their homes. It was a fad that didn't last a decade.


EV's will be part of the mix, but I'm not sure they will dominate.
Terry

[blumenkraft]

EV's have been around now for what 100 years?

Li-Ion batteries, high speed charging, wireless charging, 3D-cameras, sensors, ASIC chips, high-speed parallel computing, BMS, touchscreen...

All rather new stuff, don't you agree?

[oren]

Terry, you are ignoring the main change, cost per kWh of batteries. An EV that many people can have is not the same as the EV that someone's grandpa built that could drive 10 miles.
Computers were available in the 60s, so should I say nothing has changed from then to 2000? 2010? Today?
You already showed how in the US, with its crazy low petrol costs, EVs running costs are less than half of high mileage petrol cars, under common usage scenarios, though for purely long haul driving that is still not the case. I showed how somewhere else fuel/energy costs are 1/7 compared to ICE. As battery prices continue to drop, and as new smaller EV models by VW and others become available, this will become more and more of a no brainer. First it will be city cars, and soon after the multi-use cars. Rest assured they will dominate, even if just for economic reasons.
Besides, many people are really sick of peronally polluting, and would love to switch just for that sake. Not all see high mileage petrol cars as "low-polluting". Even with a mixed grid, EVs pollute much less, and most people are aware of that.

[Sigmetnow]

Here’s one of the most important charts in electrification and end of combustion engines

Volkswagen released this chart showing how fast they are completely converting Zwickau [factory] to electric transport in a short period of time starting this year (picture via Matthias Schmidt on Twitter)

That’s going to be an electric vehicle production capacity of over 300,000 cars per year, which is pretty rare outside of Tesla’s Fremont factory in California.

The first electric vehicle to be produced at the factory is the ID3, an all-electric hatchback that VW is set to launch later this year.

Earlier this year, Volkswagen revealed some specs of the VW ID.3 electric hatchback, which will start at less than €30,000 and have over 330 km of range.

Some versions are supposed to have over 500 km of range.

https://electrek.co/2019/08/21/electric-car-chart-end-combustion-engine/

[Sigmetnow]

Hey, Terry,

I double-dog dare you to go to a National Drive Electric event and check out the EVs.
There’s one in the Cambridge Center Mall on September 21; 11am to 3pm!

https://driveelectricweek.org

P.S.:  Take a friend.  (Or have a friend take you. )

[interstitial]

This dump truck doesn't require an external power source. It goes up the mountain empty and comes down loaded. Using regenerative braking it produces more power than it consumes.
Obviously this is not possible in many places but its still awesome.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1124478_world-s-largest-ev-never-has-to-be-recharged

[TerryM]

There are a few things I should settle.


I had my tongue firmly in my cheek when mentioning the "Galt Mobile" though it was a real hybrid and the sales almost made it to double digits. Didn't look very different than other ancient cars, but didn't start any rush for hybrid vehicles.


The Big Boys are going to produce EVs, if for no reason than to get out of paying Tesla for mandated credits.


If Sig can remind me a day or so before the Cambridge event I'll show up - health permitting. I did manage to make it to Burlington for a monthly dinner tonight, so I may well be able to attend. I drove a Prius some weeks before they were offered in the States. I was very impressed.


In Death Valley there's an elevated trolly that brings the oar down to the crusher. It not only powers itself and it's partners back up to the mine, but it powers all of the mechanism of the crusher - I think it's ~100 years old.


Pioche Nevada still has the cables, elevated oar cars and wires that once powered the crusher there, but also spun a small generator to power the saloon's beer cooler. Stayed above the saloon one night, but it was a little noisy even then.


Not self powered dump trucks, but similar simpler technology.
Terry

[Sigmetnow]

Terry wrote:

I drove a Prius some weeks before they were offered in the States. I was very impressed.

   If you were impressed by a Prius, please check your meds before taking a test drive in a Tesla.  Any Tesla is better than a ‘Science Fantasy,’ as you mentioned in another thread — but Teslas are real. 

I’ll try to remind you as the event approaches.  Hope you can attend.