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nanning

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #750 on: October 22, 2019, 06:16:05 AM »
Thanks for explaining.

I agree with your first sentences but find it a bit strange that you start with 'some people' and then go on with 'the masses'.

I disagree with "This is not a/the problem." though.

I am with XR on this: That it is a large part the problem that the people are not informed. That's why they make a primary demand of governments to tell the truth.
I also disagree with your 'market mechanism' as a vehicle for solutions. Many scientists and the U.N. are calling for system changes. With market mechanisms nobody has any real control and control is what is needed.

To put your final quote in context:
Martin Luther King didn't fight for people to accept physics and reality. He didn't have the support of the scientists and the U.N..
While XR does. Do you see the difference? I think it is important.

Thanks again for explaining and apologies for these off-topic posts of mine.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #751 on: October 22, 2019, 07:06:27 AM »
Thanks for explaining.

I agree with your first sentences but find it a bit strange that you start with 'some people' and then go on with 'the masses'.

I disagree with "This is not a/the problem." though.

I am with XR on this: That it is a large part the problem that the people are not informed. That's why they make a primary demand of governments to tell the truth.
I also disagree with your 'market mechanism' as a vehicle for solutions. Many scientists and the U.N. are calling for system changes. With market mechanisms nobody has any real control and control is what is needed.

To put your final quote in context:
Martin Luther King didn't fight for people to accept physics and reality. He didn't have the support of the scientists and the U.N..
While XR does. Do you see the difference? I think it is important.

Thanks again for explaining and apologies for these off-topic posts of mine.

The masses are some people. Some people are the masses.

"Market mechanism" is kinda vague anyways. Nothing should be banned, but the accounting should be correct: there is a cost to society (especially future society) for CO2 emission, and thus this cost should be paid by the emitter. It is actually SUPER simple.

MLK didn't have the support of the scientist or the UN...isn't that kinda damning for scientist and the UN???

As for physics and reality: Global temperature over a long period of time is super complicated. Everything changes. The speed of light (causality) even changes. And in general climate change drastically and rapidly all the time. The last 10,000 years are an outlier. I believe the climate community is correct about the assertion they make, BUT to just call it REALITY is incredibly naive.



I like to add random on topic comments like: EVs are definately going to take over. Oil is expensive. Gas is almost free. Oil is good for ICE. Gas is good for EVs. Wind and Solar are still irrelevant.
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philopek

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #752 on: October 22, 2019, 07:29:41 PM »
https://www.livescience.com/29111-speed-of-light-not-constant.html

Perhaps this can help avoid the to be expected discussion about changing speed of light while i think.

I was surprised to read that @GSY because for most people SoL is considered a "constant" while chances are high that only the Vmax is really absolute.

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #753 on: October 22, 2019, 10:38:09 PM »

THIS IS EXACTLY THE POINT!!! A carbon tax evenly and fairly penalizes emissions. If EVs are hurt by this, they should be. We need market solutions like a carbon tax. Supporting EVs because they are green in theory is stupid. Supporting ANYTHING because it is green in theory is stupid. Tax that problem, and then see what ends up making sense.

Yep let's fairly penalise emissions.  But, but, but, we can't determine just how many EV's are actually charging totally on non emitting electricity. So let's just blanket charge any electric supply with the average for the country based on CO2 emissions.

Excellent. What an incentive for new EV buyers.  Which are, let us not forget, significantly more expensive than the equivalent FF vehicle.

Now let's go to FCA and tell them that if they put that $1.8bn into producing a gasoline burning engine with 50% more efficiency than the current engines today, they can equal current EV's on coal power.  The real beauty of that situation is that it does not have to go through some profit and loss analysis or whether their competitors will be able to use it too, we're talking direct taxation here of emitting vehicles which FCA are mitigating by putting near $2bn out there.  Meaning that they could invest half a billion in a more efficient ICE and totally bypass the penalties.  Especially as Germany is struggling so hard to get off Coal that their EV penalties for CO2 would be quite high.

Be careful what you wish for.  Today the FF vehicles and general taxpayers are subsidising EV "fuel" because when we get to our clean grid we want to be off FF entirely and this is the best way to do it.

But NO, you want to TAX the EV's and give FF manufacturers some true incentive to innovate and beat the EV's on the current FF powered Grid.

Then when our Grids are finally free of FF, we'll have to spend the next 4 decades getting rid of the FF vehicles.

Way to go.

You know what the CIA call suicide bombers?  "Not so smart Bombs".

This idea, to me, falls into the "Not so smart" category.

But my IQ is only 70, apparently, so, please do; go for it.

Just remember that the standard gasoline engine is around 20%, on average, thermally efficient.  Acres of room for improvement.  CCGT used for power gen is in the 90% bracket.  Apparently it doesn't take an IQ over 70 to know that....

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kassy

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #754 on: October 23, 2019, 05:50:41 PM »
Improving the engine has more or less run up to its limits. There is a reason why the carmakers lobbied for easy to cheat tests in the EU.
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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #755 on: October 23, 2019, 10:24:08 PM »
Improving the engine has more or less run up to its limits. There is a reason why the carmakers lobbied for easy to cheat tests in the EU.

Not quite true.  PSA diesels have never cheated nor is there any suspicion that they have.  VAG, on the other hand, released a statement (a few years back), that the decision to cheat was based on the calculation that they could not catch up with the others and meet regulations within a time and cost matrix which they would accept. So they chose to cheat.  Note, not that it was not possible, that it would take longer than they would accept and cost more money than they were willing to pay.

There are several designs out there which could improve the MPG of cars, the manufacturers just never had the impetus to chase them.  Now, with EV subsidies and 120MPGe values for grid charged EV's, there is even less incentive to chase incremental improvements in ICE designs.

However, should we continue with the damaging charges (like the huge money FCA is sequestering), to force incumbent car makers to increase MPG, at the same time as driving down the MPGe of EV to, say, 70mpg, through Carbon taxation on grid power, the incumbents may decide to hedge their bets.

This blind belief that you can do one thing, whilst the remainder of the market and economy will simply accept it and not find opportunities in it is, to me, shortsighted.  I had that view kicked out of me when I went back to college and studied basic economics and economic modelling.  The computer models, used at the time, were designed specifically to make you think.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #756 on: October 24, 2019, 05:29:53 PM »
Interesting tidbit from Tesla’s Q3 2019 fiancial results teleconference:

Now that Tesla’s solar and storage products are taking off, Elon Musk said they plan to begin reporting how much sustainable energy is being generated by Tesla products. “It will soon be as much as is consumed in our cars.”

Also that the ramp in solar installations fits with Tesla’s “overarching strategy” to become “like a giant distributed utility.”


Cross-post to Renewable Energy.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #757 on: October 24, 2019, 07:55:50 PM »
Quote
And in general climate change drastically and rapidly all the time. The last 10,000 years are an outlier. I believe the climate community is correct about the assertion they make, BUT to just call it REALITY is incredibly naive.
Climate change denial rears its ugly head .
There is no "climate community" there is a scientific community that says our unfortunate experiment in atmospheric physics is changing the climate faster than nature has ever been forced to  adapt to as far as we can reliably ascertain . 
That's reality as well as we know it . 

Edit .
Before we get quibbling from our nutcase.
There is conjecture that in the remote past asteroid strikes may have changed the climate extremely rapidly and that the result wiped out 90% or more of life on earth.
This gives more support to the extreme risk inherent  our our experiment not less.

 
« Last Edit: October 24, 2019, 08:23:25 PM by KiwiGriff »

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #758 on: October 24, 2019, 10:25:15 PM »
Quote
And in general climate change drastically and rapidly all the time. The last 10,000 years are an outlier. I believe the climate community is correct about the assertion they make, BUT to just call it REALITY is incredibly naive.
Climate change denial rears its ugly head .
There is no "climate community" there is a scientific community that says our unfortunate experiment in atmospheric physics is changing the climate faster than nature has ever been forced to  adapt to as far as we can reliably ascertain . 
That's reality as well as we know it . 

Edit .
Before we get quibbling from our nutcase.
There is conjecture that in the remote past asteroid strikes may have changed the climate extremely rapidly and that the result wiped out 90% or more of life on earth.
This gives more support to the extreme risk inherent  our our experiment not less.

Brilliant. If you are not certain, you are a denier. Brilliant.

I get it. If you want to make the argument as strong as possible, it makes not sense to have perspective. But reality isn't about having as tiny of a viewpoint as possible.


(PLEASE NOTE THAT I AM ADVOCATING FOR A VERY STRONG CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY RESPONSE, DESPITE THE FACT THAT I AM NOT CERTAIN OF THE REASON FOR THAT RESPONSE. CERTAINTY IS FOR THE WEAK AND FEEBLE MINDED. #TSLA420)
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #759 on: October 24, 2019, 10:39:43 PM »
There is no "climate community".

Says person typing on ASI forum. LOL.

Climate conferences, a myth. IPCC, a fallacy.

atmospheric physics is changing the climate faster than nature has ever been forced to  adapt to as far as we can reliably ascertain .

totally refuted by your admission that

There is conjecture that in the remote past asteroid strikes may have changed the climate extremely rapidly and that the result wiped out 90% or more of life on earth.

This gives more support to the extreme risk inherent  our our experiment not less.

YES. I AGREE. Climate changes, and it is a big deal. We totally are powerful enough to change it. We need to create resilient system to climate change, and we need to make sure we don't drastically change the climate ourselves. This understanding does not require dogmatic belief that humans are changing the climate exactly as the (gasp) "climate community" (gasp) says.

If you want to categorize me as the opposition due to this even though I want the same policies that you want (I imagine), you are a total moron.
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nanning

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #760 on: October 25, 2019, 07:20:14 AM »
Why the need for words such as "nutcase" and "total moron"? This is not language befitting a civilised discussion by civiiised people. Please restrain yourselves emotionally. Before posting, take a deep breath, sigh and take a small break ;).
Let's not lower ourselves to Mr.Trump's level :).
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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #761 on: October 25, 2019, 03:24:48 PM »
We've been called worse on the Tesla glory/Failure thread.

Broad shoulders....
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #762 on: October 25, 2019, 04:07:59 PM »
Why the need for words such as "nutcase" and "total moron"? This is not language befitting a civilised discussion by civiiised people. Please restrain yourselves emotionally. Before posting, take a deep breath, sigh and take a small break ;).
Let's not lower ourselves to Mr.Trump's level :).


Kiwi is a "total moron" because he called me a "nutcase".

I expressed that I believe there is more uncertainty than ppl like to recognize and Kiwi decides to slander me as a denier nutcase....

Climate change denial rears its ugly head...

Before we get quibbling from our nutcase...

It is quite civilized to correctly identify moronic behavior and call it out before it becomes seen as accepted behavior. Nothing emotional about it.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #763 on: October 25, 2019, 05:08:28 PM »
Senator Schumer Proposes $462 Billion Car Swap—Gas for Electric
https://techxplore.com/news/2019-10-schumer-billion-car-swapgas-electric.html

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is moving Democrats' climate talk to where the rubber meets the road, proposing a $462 billion trade-in program to get millions of Americans out of climate-damaging gas vehicles and into electric or hybrid cars over the next decade.

Schumer said the "proposal to bring clean cars to all of America" would be a key part of climate legislation by Senate Democrats. The injection of government-supported spending for electric cars "could position the U.S. to lead the world in clean auto manufacturing," he said.

... The New York Democrat's plan would give American car buyers thousands of dollars each to trade in gas-burning cars for U.S.-assembled electric, hybrid or hydrogen cell cars. Lower-income households, and buyers of cars with American-made parts, would get extra credits.

About $45 billion would go to boost availability of charging stations and other electric car infrastructure. And $17 billion would help automakers increase their production of electric cars, batteries and parts.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #764 on: October 27, 2019, 01:21:32 PM »
Championing the environment when your fame and livelihood depends on fossil fuels?  This Formula 1 race car driver has been active on social media about environmental issues.

Hamilton rallies for plastic decrease in F1 to Brawn and Mercedes
Quote
Lewis Hamilton is pushing Ross Brawn and Mercedes to bring change in F1 in terms of their plastic use in an on-going drive worldwide.

“So, we are in a position where we are now, beginning to shift. If you look at the V8s and the V10s, we are now using a third less fuel than we used to use in a race distance, so that’s already a step forward, but there is absolutely more that we can do.”

He also stressed on the fact that efficient engines are not the only way to improve pollution and there are other ways by which the sport can prevent global warming and help in making the planet a better place.

“On things like the amount of plastic that’s used throughout the weekend – I’ve got three bottles right here in the room, I’m not opening them, but someone will drink these, and that becomes waste,” he said.

“So, I think the amount of waste that comes out of a race weekend, also through all these weekends, we can do a lot about that and so I’m trying to encourage Ross and his team to make a change.

In recent times, Hamilton has posted several images and videos raising awareness on his social media. The British racer has recently sold his private jet too as he flies more on commercial airlines.
  https://drivetribe.com/p/hamilton-rallies-for-plastic-decrease-FgPL7yO4Ts2ANGOOKzEDgQ

Hamilton gives full explanation on recent posts, elaborates eco-friendly steps
https://drivetribe.com/p/hamilton-gives-full-explanation-Nk3FvkRBQd-FfVXmZ23Dow

F1 drivers are split when talking about environment after Hamilton's message
https://drivetribe.com/p/f1-drivers-are-split-when-talking-XbbVzkQsRRm3JlYuMqgtdQ
    Most head-in-the-sand response:
Quote
Max Verstappen: "I like fuel, can I say that? I don’t electric stuff. Well, I like my little electric moped at home. But not for an F1 car. I know the environment is very important but F1 has been around as well for a long time and I don’t think we should overreact or be drama queen about it. Just get on with it. If you don’t like it, don’t watch it.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2019, 02:51:41 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Archimid

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #765 on: October 27, 2019, 01:27:31 PM »
Tesla Model 3 Performance vs Rivals: M3, C63 S & Giulia QV (EXTENDED) | Top Gear : Series 27

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #766 on: October 27, 2019, 03:20:46 PM »
This is in addition to the suspension of all pickup truck manufacturing in Mexico due to the strike:
GM Suspends Production Of The Chevy Blazer At Its Mexico Plant
Quote
General Motors Company reported that it has temporarily suspended production of its Chevrolet Blazer SUV at its manufacturing plant in Ramos Arizpe, Mexico.
Production of the Blazer will be halted due to the shortage of parts caused by the strike of 48,000 United Auto Workers against General Motors that began September 16.
https://m.benzinga.com/article/14623985

—-
Prices for the all electric SUV and pickup truck from Bollinger have been announced:  both list for $125,000. :o
Bollinger Electric SUV & Pickup Prices Announced
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/24/bollinger-electric-suv-pickup-prices-announced/

(Musk has said the Tesla pickup should start under $50,000.)

——
Quote
Steve Jobs Ghost (@tesla_truth) 10/23/19, 7:15 PM
“We’re opening to supplying batteries and powertrains to other companies” — @elonmusk

You hear that legacy auto?!?!? GET ON IT
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1187145459007025153
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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #767 on: October 28, 2019, 02:31:18 PM »
Amongst the noise of the FCA fines and ZEV credit purchases from Tesla, I note that FCA are committing $10bn to EV development in the 2018-2022 business plan.

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/fiat-chrysler-spend-2-billion-co2-fines-and-credits
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #768 on: October 28, 2019, 04:07:50 PM »
This understanding does not require dogmatic belief that humans are changing the climate exactly as the (gasp) "climate community" (gasp) says.

I must have blocked you a long time ago and I don't recall running across blocked comments from you recently. I decided to click to read your comment and now know why I have you blocked.
 
Carry on but this is the "Electric Car" thread so if you could try to stay on topic that would be nice for those who have not blocked you.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #769 on: October 28, 2019, 04:23:43 PM »
PLEASE NOTE THAT I AM ADVOCATING FOR A VERY STRONG CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY RESPONSE

Please note that you are doing it in an unbearable way.

Why are you here, GoSouthYoungins?
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nanning

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #770 on: October 29, 2019, 04:48:32 PM »
Hypothesis:

Future electric cars will have the batteries fully integrated in the chassis and structure. Saving a lot of weight.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #771 on: October 29, 2019, 04:55:45 PM »
I'm fairly sure that the Tesla batteries form an integral part of the chassis structural strength.

Not all cars do this though because not all battery packs are as rigid as the Tesla one due to the flexibility of the cells.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #772 on: October 29, 2019, 07:44:23 PM »
40-day strike cost General Motors nearly $3 billion
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gm-earnings-40-day-strike-cost-general-motors-nearly-3-billion/#

$3B is 2-3 times analyst estimates.
The strike is a good excuse for GM’s losses, though.  It also decreased their bloated inventories.
Light trucks accounted for just over 88% of GM's sales during the third quarter.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #773 on: October 30, 2019, 01:30:44 AM »
GM, Toyota, Fiat Chrysler back Trump on California emissions challenge
Quote
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Major automakers are siding with the Trump administration in its bid to bar California from setting its own fuel efficiency rules or zero-emission requirements for vehicles, the companies said in a filing with a U.S. appeals court late on Monday. ... The group backing Trump also includes Mazda, Nissan Motor Co, Kia Motors Corp and Subaru Co.
...
Other automakers, such as Ford Motor Co, Honda Motor Co [, BMW] and Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE), which announced a voluntary deal with California in July on emissions rules, are not joining the bid to intervene on the administration’s side.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-emissions-california/gm-toyota-fiat-chrysler-back-trump-on-california-emissions-challenge-idUSKBN1X728Y
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #774 on: October 30, 2019, 01:57:39 AM »
FCA seems quite desperate to find a buyer....  They may not survive the transition to EVs.

Fiat Chrysler is reportedly in talks to combine with Peugeot-owner PSA Group
Quote
Fiat recently was in talks to combine with Renault, but the deal crumbled after Fiat couldn't win over the French government, which is a large Renault shareholder, and Nissan Motor, which is a Renault partner.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/10/29/fiat-chrysler-shares-surge-on-report-of-merger-talks-with-french-automaker.html
« Last Edit: October 30, 2019, 02:04:16 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #775 on: October 30, 2019, 04:24:49 PM »
PSA group is in a worse state than FCA for meeting the EU regulations. Well according to the FT anyway.

Hard to see why PSA would want to merge only to take on the liability of FCA too. A bit like selling a concrete lifesaver to a drowning man.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #776 on: October 30, 2019, 11:33:48 PM »
PSA (Peugout, Citreon, Opal, Vauxhall) + FCA (Fiat, Chrysler, Jeep) = Too big to fail and eligible for bailouts and subsidies from five different countries (France, Germany, UK, Italy and US).

Making your corporate structure even more complex and massive at this stage when you need to reinvent the company in a move from ICE to EV doesn't make much sense to me. Also, none of them are big in China (unlike VW, BMW and Mercedes) - Fiat's JV in China is not doing that well. PSA is also in a much better place with EV products than FCA.

Looks more like a big multi-country subsidy/bailout grab to me. Being spread across three of the big EU economies (assuming Brexit for the UK) also gives them a lot of clout at the EU level.

They will have a lot of ICE engine plants to close down, in four different languages ...
« Last Edit: October 30, 2019, 11:39:27 PM by rboyd »

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #777 on: October 31, 2019, 02:18:35 AM »
Quote
Tesla Driver (@M_xalher) 10/30/19, 2:15 PM
All EQC by @Daimler being recalled due to serious error in front drivetrain (TV2 Norway).

Quote
EQC: En av Norges hotteste biler må tilbakekalles
https://www.tv2.no/a/10955077/

Major repair required on each of the cars produced so far to fix it.
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1189606779723878400
Related articles in the Twitter thread.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #778 on: October 31, 2019, 03:43:13 AM »
PSA Group: EVs threaten the car industry

Quote
“EVs are far simpler [than internal combustion engined vehicles]," she explained. "They need less parts, less time in the workshop. Ultimately, it means less time in aftersales. That’s why we’ve chosen to diversify into areas such as shared mobility.”

PSA, which owns the Peugeot, Citroën, DS, Opel and Vauxhall brands, already offers its Free2Move car sharing service in Paris, France, where 550 of its vehicles are available via a smartphone app.

Lees, talking at today's Auto Futures event, said: “We haven’t commercialised a lot of [mobility services] in the UK, but we will do, such as Free2Move, which encompasses anything complementary to car ownership or substitutes such as leasing or rental, but also our use of telematics and technology to enable peer-to-peer car-sharing. On our new vehicles, you can get a digital key so you can assign the car to others remotely.”

Lees added that despite the inevitable decline in aftersales revenue in the short-term, the increasing sales of EVs does bring opportunity.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/psa-group-evs-threaten-car-industry

etienne

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #779 on: October 31, 2019, 08:56:19 AM »
Also, none of them are big in China (unlike VW, BMW and Mercedes) - Fiat's JV in China is not doing that well. PSA is also in a much better place with EV products than FCA.

Dongfeng, a Chinese car company, is one of the 3 main shareholders of PSA.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #780 on: November 01, 2019, 02:14:49 PM »
I find it interesting that the e208 is positioned to challenge the EV world with a projected capacity of 30,000 per year to begin with.  Rising to 60,000 a year of they see Significant demand.

By the time they get there Tesla will have a capacity of over half a million cars per year, rising to close to 900,000 by the end of 2020.

Until the big manufacturers start to produce more than 1m, each, per year, they are all just mitigating the EU and US fines.

Everyone is desperately looking for The EV manufacturer who is going to dominate the emerging EV market.  They need to stop looking and realise the incumbent is there, viable and the one to beat. Also that beating it is going to be extremely difficult.

Today the FCA fleet average is 120g/km.  If they fail to get it down below 110 by 2021, the cost of the difference between 95g and 110g, at a €95 per gram, runs into multiple billions at current volume.  PSA is estimated at over €5bn in fines in 2022 at 2019 Fleet emissions levels.  FCA only gets down to <€3bn because they already manufacture the 500e.

Even going all out FCA is estimated to only hit 98g by 2022. Incurring upwards of €600m in fines.

It is no surprise that FCA entered into a pooling deal with Tesla estimated to be worth $1.8bn over 4 years.
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oren

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #781 on: November 01, 2019, 04:41:10 PM »
It is no surprise that FCA entered into a pooling deal with Tesla estimated to be worth $1.8bn over 4 years.
As I have written in the past, I very strongly doubt this number.
Here is a little excerpt from Tesla's 10Q form, which can help shed some light on this.
Quote
Automotive Regulatory Credits
We recognize revenue on the sale of regulatory credits at the time control of the regulatory credits is transferred to the purchasing party as automotive revenue in the consolidated statements of operations. Deferred revenue related to sales of automotive regulatory credits was $140 million and $0 as of September 30, 2019 and December 31, 2018, respectively. We expect to recognize the deferred revenue as of September 30, 2019 over the next 1 to 3 years.

I believe the FCA deal is nearer to this $140M, or possibly a few hundreds of millions, than it is to the $1.2B that has been mentioned before or the $1.8B that you mentioned above.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #782 on: November 01, 2019, 06:04:57 PM »
Oren,

EU fines for non compliance with the 95g fleet linit emerge in the 2020/2021 vehicle range. It has a rolling start with real fines kicking in at 2022.

We are not talking the relatively trivial fines being levied in the US.  We are talking €95 pe vehicle per g CO2 the fleet is over.

The quoted article I saw was for FCA missing by 3g for their 2.2m vehicles. Hundreds of millions of €.  The PSA fine was based on similar.  The reality of FCA is their fleet, today, is 120g and that is with current 500e sales dragging it down.

As the current state of ICE engine development is at the upper end of ability, we cannot expect that 120 to drop significantly.  Even the 2.0l Toyota engine which is 40% thermally efficient, doesn't do 50mpg(US}, which is nowhere near 95g CO2 per km.

I don't know, but I assume that the EU will allow 95g per EV to defray the fleet.

If we assume the fleet is already affected by the 500e and break it out and assume around 130g for the remaining fleet, then add back in the projected 80, 000 500e that FCA plan to make in Italy, they only need about 400,000 tesla car credits to avoid these fines.

The figures you quoted were all for 2018/19.  The deal in question is to avoid the 2022 EU fines.

Still think that it will be around 140m?

[Update]

I got that slightly wrong.  Going back to my spreadsheet tells me that at 130g they would need to buy credits for 700,000 teslas.  Of course if they were to increase 500e production to half a million they would only need to buy credits for 280,000 of them.

Does that show the scale of how the EU legislation is driving the EU manufacturers to EV's and just how much of a mess they are in?

Even more, Tesla would have to manufacture several million vehicles and sell all the credits to fix the EU manufacturers 2022 bill if they don't go EV.  Which isn't going to happen.

Hence why VAG is investing 45 billion, Mercedes 35 billion and BMW 25 billion.  PSA?  30,000 Peugeot 208e!  Hence a tempting merger with FCA who have managed to corral all the Tesla credits available.

Seems to make sense to me.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2019, 06:21:47 PM by NeilT »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #783 on: November 01, 2019, 09:03:02 PM »
Re:  FCA emission fines.  Tesla has not revealed now much they would receive from the arrangement. But:

Quote
Philippe Houchois at Jefferies estimates Fiat is facing fines of about EUR2 billion ($2.24 billion) a year in 2020 and 2021 if fleet emissions exceed the targets.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fiat-chrysler-taps-tesla-to-avoid-eu-emission-fine-2019-04-08


Edited Transcript of FCA.MI earnings conference call or presentation 3-May-19 12:00pm GMT
Quote
And as mentioned by Mike, we're talking about or compliance strategy. We did enter into various agreements in the quarter to ensure that we have access to regulatory credits to complement our vehicle launch strategy towards meeting emissions compliance in EMEA and NAFTA going forward. So the total commitment under those contracts is about EUR 1.8 billion, which will be spent over the next 3 years. Last year, we had cash outlays between credits and compliance payments of about EUR 600 million included in our cash flow. We expect 2019 number to be moderately up from that. And we think it's important that we have managed to secure these credits, which we believe to be a very economic way of complementing our compliance strategy through the launch of the electric vehicles that Mike mentioned.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-fca-mi-earnings-215937565.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #784 on: November 02, 2019, 08:12:18 PM »
Tesla rolls out ‘Scheduled Departure’ feature to customize charging completion by time and day
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-scheduled-departure-customized-charging-explained/
Tesla is catching up to many other EVs with this update, which can help smooth charging power demand over time.  Another benefit to being able to end charging at a specified time is cost savings for those with Time of Use billing.

Note:  Owning an EV will NOT require all households to upgrade their wiring.
“For unique power situations, the Tesla Wall Connector can also be installed with lower amperage circuit breakers to support almost any existing electrical system.”
https://www.tesla.com/support/home-charging-installation/wall-connector

—-
More E-taxis:
Quote
Franco Mossotto (@FMossotto) 10/31/19, 3:13 AM
I spotted for the first time a #Tesla #Model3 taxi in Rome
https://twitter.com/fmossotto/status/1189802681558278144
Photos at the link.

—-
Fisker’s upcoming EV is called, “Ocean.”  You can’t buy it, only lease.  The hood/bonnet doesn’t open; there is no frunk.  The roof has solar panels. 80 kWh battery, 250 mi to 300 mi of range claimed.
But why open reservations in November 2019 for something that will only be available in 2022? Especially if the car is not going to be sold but leased?
Fisker Ocean Will Be An Electric SUV For Enjoying, Not Buying
https://insideevs.com/news/379664/fisker-ocean-enjoying-not-buying/
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #785 on: November 03, 2019, 01:38:36 AM »
Quote
Club Tesla España (@ClubTeslaES) 11/2/19, 11:54 AM
Supercharger @Tesla en Tordesillas, España... no solo no ha podido cargar, lo peor es la ocupación de esos puestos para hacer la broma, muy gracioso y ocurrente... no podemos parar de reír...  ;D ;D ;D :o  puedes hacerlo mejor?  :-\
https://twitter.com/clubteslaes/status/1190658460192575494
Image(s) below.

Possibilities:
- Just being an ass.
- Really needed a charge and thought this would work.
- (per a commenter:) Etron will lock onto a foreign charger and not let go.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #786 on: November 03, 2019, 07:53:15 PM »
—- Interesting how Teslas’ innovative features, previously derided by the industry, are becoming the norm:
The normally-boxy Ford Escape SUV has become more car-like. And electrified.
Ford's evergreen Escape is reborn with sleeker styling, hybrid power
https://www.digitaltrends.com/car-reviews/2020-ford-escape-review/

Buttons are out, big screens and OTA updates are in:
“The  bigger screens will allow Ford to show multiple applications (like navigation, phone, and radio) simultaneously, and to automatically configure their arrangement based on which apps the driver uses most frequently. As for the question of screens distracting drivers from the roads, Jablonski says a bigger display can actually help by saving drivers from fiddling with the thing if it’s showing the radio and they need to see directions.”
Ford is bringing huge screens—and live updates—to its cars
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/11/ford-is-bringing-huge-screens-and-live-updates-to-its-cars/

=====
Merkel wants Germany to have one million electric car charging points by 2030
Quote
“…ahead of meetings on Monday with the car industry on how to speed the move to low-emission battery-driven vehicles.
“For this purpose, we want to create a million charging points by the year 2030 and the industry will have to participate in this effort, that is what we will be talking about,” Merkel said. Germany now has just 20,000 public charging points.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-germany-merkel/merkel-wants-germany-to-have-one-million-electric-car-charging-points-by-2030-idUSKBN1XD07Z


—- Facing an EV conundrum in California
The author wants a moderate sized SUV for an “annual” long-distance trip, but doesn’t want “long stops to charge” and is thinking hybrid.  She even cancelled her Model Y reservation because of California’s increasingly frequent power cuts, even though she touts the benefits of charging at home.  She has solar panels, but doesn’t mention that they will not work when the grid is out — further, neither will gas station pumps…. 
Will more frequent electricity shutdowns short circuit EV adoption?
https://drivetribe.com/p/will-more-frequent-electricity-PIR_B3zxTsSKI5CVxs9GtA
< Or will it charge up Solar + Batteries + BEV ownership?  ;)>
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nanning

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #787 on: November 04, 2019, 08:20:38 AM »
I think we all agree that microplastic is a large and growing problem.
Any solution yet to the microplastic emissions from electric cars' tyres?

Of course you could stop driving cars for personal transport ;)
And remove your isolation from other people and from outside.
Live more in reality and you might pick up some empathy and caring.
Win win win.

edit: I don't mean that you have no empathy but that you'll increase your empathy if you are in real world contact with other humans outside your group. More empathy maybe for the poor around the world. 'The numbers'. Your countrymen & women :)
« Last Edit: November 04, 2019, 05:34:05 PM by nanning »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #788 on: November 04, 2019, 07:34:52 PM »
I think we all agree that microplastic is a large and growing problem.
Any solution yet to the microplastic emissions from electric cars' tyres?

Of course you could stop driving cars for personal transport ;)
And remove your isolation from other people and from outside.
Live more in reality and you might pick up some empathy and caring.
Win win win.

edit: I don't mean that you have no empathy but that you'll increase your empathy if you are in real world contact with other humans outside your group. More empathy maybe for the poor around the world. 'The numbers'. Your countrymen & women :)

With their main screens replacing a multitude of buttons and knobs, newer cars and especially EVs can have less plastic than traditional ICE vehicles.

And what empathy do you have for the poor people in areas where there is no public transport, they are miles from town, and are not physically capable of riding a bicycle?

Further “No cars” discussion belongs in the Cars, Cars and More Cars Part Deux board.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2687.0.html
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #789 on: November 04, 2019, 10:00:07 PM »

And what empathy do you have for the poor people in areas where there is no public transport, they are miles from town, and are not physically capable of riding a bicycle?

People think this is a straw man.  But after I left college, a second time and managed to fight my way into a job in an area of 50% unemployment, I met someone who had been unemployed for years.  Finally he managed to get a placement at a famous nature reserve.  He lived in the town, the Job started at 06:30 every weekday and there was no public transport. He had no aptitude for cycling and had to give up on it.

So desperate was he to keep the placement, which guaranteed a job, that he was getting up at 3am and walking the 10 miles to work every day.  At least he could get a bus back.

After 3 months he was contemplating giving up as he could no longer cope with the hours and it was destroying his family life. He was desparate and hanging in because there was no alternative in the area for him.

So when I read flippant remarks about how everyone will have a better life if we just give up personal transport, I don't take it in such good part.

The world is the shape it is today because of centuries of progress.  It will not just change to something else because we deny ourselves the fruits of that progress.  It will change to something else by using the fruits of that progress to go forward to a better world.

A retrograde society stagnates and stagnated evolution is pruned by nature pretty quickly.  If you could find a talking Dodo, they could explain it to us.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #790 on: November 05, 2019, 12:29:05 AM »
The world is the shape it is today because of centuries of progress.  It will not just change to something else because we deny ourselves the fruits of that progress.  It will change to something else by using the fruits of that progress to go forward to a better world.

Yes, that something else will be 3 to 4 °C of warming. For starters.

Quote
A retrograde society stagnates and stagnated evolution is pruned by nature pretty quickly.  If you could find a talking Dodo, they could explain it to us.

Dodo explains: Homo sapiens exterminated us.

I know I'm living in Austria, and so I should shut up. I also don't know a poor man who couldn't bike to work, and so praise Tesla SUVs. But my problem is not with your viewpoint, my problem is that it isn't your viewpoint. It's conditioned, regurgitated, unimaginative thought that you are just repeating like the obedient schoolboy you have been all your life (and taght your children to be as well). That's how we got here.

And now you're fighting for that conditioned thought to remain dominant, even though the numbers show you where it'll lead to: 3 to 4 °C warming, for starters. And numbers are supposed to be your forte. I guess you expect your offspring will be useful enough to concentrated wealth to be allowed to enter Elysium.

Why don't you go to some forum for old folks who think neoliberalism is the god that ended all gods, and complain about stupid, radical, ungrateful young people there? Hail the system, our benefactor, and may it live forever, and all that.

We already live in a retrograde, stagnated society. We've been living in it for decades and it won't change into 'something else', unless systemic, radical changes are implemented. You may not like that, but that's because you're old and your brain is too conditioned to adapt. Support the young, instead of keeping them down, and maybe one day they'll forgive you.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #791 on: November 05, 2019, 02:35:51 AM »
An historic day in Zwickau, Germany.  Early versions of the ID.3 should sell for about €40,000 (~$45,500), and later versions with the smallest battery, about €22,000 (~$24,400).

Production Of Volkswagen ID.3 Begins In Zwickau On November 4, 2019
Quote
The ID.3 Is A Fantastic Electric Car
Let’s begin by saying the ID.3 is not a direct competitor to the Tesla Model 3. It is not a computer on wheels in the way all Tesla are. It will not have full self-driving capability, at least not at first. It also does not have a 15″ horizontal touchscreen mounted in the middle of the dashboard. What it does have is two screens — one in front of the driver and one centrally mounted on the dashboard. A heads-up display is available. And it looks absolutely stunning up close.

It features an interior as spacious as a Volkswagen Passat in a car that is close to the size of a current model Volkswagen Golf. It will be offered with three battery sizes at three different price points. The first cars off the line will have a 62 kWh battery and a range of approximately 425 kilometers | 264 miles. Later, an 82 kWh battery with 500 kilometers | 310 miles of range will be offered as well as a 48 kWh battery with 563 kilometers | 350 miles of range.

Sales are expected to begin all across Europe in the late spring or early summer of next year. The company expects to build 100,000 cars at the Zwickau factory in 2020 and reach full capacity of 330,000 cars a year by the end of 2021. Between then and now, another assembly line at the Zwickau factory that builds conventional cars will be shut down and converted to making MEB based electric cars.

Overseas Production
The US factory for electric cars is under construction in Chattanooga, Tennessee, with the first car — the ID. Crozz SUV, which may or may not be known as the ID.4 — expected to roll off the line in late 2022. Prior to that, Volkswagen will ship ID. Crozz vehicles manufactured in Germany to dealers in America in the fourth quarter of 2021, so the first ID-branded cars in America will go on sale in less than 24 months.


Ulbrich says the largest battery — 82 kWh — can be recharged to 80% using a DC fast charger in under 30 minutes.

Asked about battery chemistry, he acknowledged that Tesla is leading the industry when it comes to lowering the amount of cobalt used in today’s battery cells and is closest to making cells that use no cobalt at all. But Volkswagen is working with its battery partners to accomplish the same goal. …

Asked about how the company’s US dealers will handle selling electric cars, Ulbrich said he thinks dealers are aware that things are changing in the marketplace and they will need to get on board or be gone.

In her remarks, Merkel pledged that Germany will increase grants for plug-in cars to €4,500 from €3,000.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/04/production-of-volkswagen-id-3-begins-in-zwickau-on-november-4-2019/
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #792 on: November 05, 2019, 03:20:20 AM »
Only in a retrograde, stagnant society would individuals still be expected to provide their own hardware for something as basic as transportation. This is the way things have been done since the earliest days of horse and buggy. The expense of owning, maintaining, and garaging a family's cars can take substantial chunk out of many family budgets, money that could be put to better use.

Think of the efficiencies that would be realised by municipalities if personal vehicles, except for mobility scooters, were eliminated.

China is just now breaking this ancient paradigm by providing E-Buses, Trollies and HSR so that within decades cars, garages, and parking will seem as outmoded as oxcarts, harnesses and carriage houses.


Progress, ain't it wonderful! :)
Terry

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #793 on: November 05, 2019, 06:04:10 AM »
Also, none of them are big in China (unlike VW, BMW and Mercedes) - Fiat's JV in China is not doing that well. PSA is also in a much better place with EV products than FCA.

Dongfeng, a Chinese car company, is one of the 3 main shareholders of PSA.

Dongfeng had a market share in China of 1.9% in 2018, so pretty small. Its the one with the JV with  PSA.

http://carsalesbase.com/china-car-sales-data/dongfeng/

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #794 on: November 05, 2019, 06:25:08 AM »
The world is the shape it is today because of centuries of progress.  It will not just change to something else because we deny ourselves the fruits of that progress.  It will change to something else by using the fruits of that progress to go forward to a better world.

Yes, that something else will be 3 to 4 °C of warming. For starters.

Quote
A retrograde society stagnates and stagnated evolution is pruned by nature pretty quickly.  If you could find a talking Dodo, they could explain it to us.

Dodo explains: Homo sapiens exterminated us.

I know I'm living in Austria, and so I should shut up. I also don't know a poor man who couldn't bike to work, and so praise Tesla SUVs. But my problem is not with your viewpoint, my problem is that it isn't your viewpoint. It's conditioned, regurgitated, unimaginative thought that you are just repeating like the obedient schoolboy you have been all your life (and taght your children to be as well). That's how we got here.

And now you're fighting for that conditioned thought to remain dominant, even though the numbers show you where it'll lead to: 3 to 4 °C warming, for starters. And numbers are supposed to be your forte. I guess you expect your offspring will be useful enough to concentrated wealth to be allowed to enter Elysium.

Why don't you go to some forum for old folks who think neoliberalism is the god that ended all gods, and complain about stupid, radical, ungrateful young people there? Hail the system, our benefactor, and may it live forever, and all that.

We already live in a retrograde, stagnated society. We've been living in it for decades and it won't change into 'something else', unless systemic, radical changes are implemented. You may not like that, but that's because you're old and your brain is too conditioned to adapt. Support the young, instead of keeping them down, and maybe one day they'll forgive you.

THIS!

*UCKING THIS!


Also, I'm kinda jealous that you live in Austria.


The good news is that Neil's kin will not survive the purge. And Elysium will not exist.

Society stagnated when we went off the gold standard. (well we kinda went off the gold standard because society stagnated, and thus we had to goose the numbers the ppl in power wanted to fake the numbers change the numbers on the ruler, but that is another story.)

A new way of thinking is required. Places like this should/could/can be the breeding grounds for such ideas/perspectives.


Personal EVs have no place in a equitable and sustainable world. FUCKING NONE.
big time oops

nanning

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #795 on: November 05, 2019, 09:51:09 AM »
Thank you Neven, Terry and GSY. Great posts in my view :).
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #796 on: November 05, 2019, 02:10:30 PM »
I think we all agree that microplastic is a large and growing problem.
Any solution yet to the microplastic emissions from electric cars' tyres?
...

I think it is logical to assume that the the smaller, low-rolling-resistance tires that come with an EV are far less polluting than beefy ICE tires.  So, again, your generic hatred of cars is misplaced here.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #797 on: November 05, 2019, 02:31:01 PM »
Support the young, instead of keeping them down, and maybe one day they'll forgive you.

Yeah, well my much younger boss is on a business flight to NY today.  Yesterday he challenged me about something I said. I told him I had already cross checked what I claimed on a CO2 footprint site and asked if his statement was based on the same.

At which point he stopped and said "really?".

You see the problem is that most of the younger people, today, don't check facts. Half of them just go with the flow and follow the sound bytes, the other half reject it utterly.

I don't care if the young ever forgive me,.  After all I'm hardly the Trump in my views. But I will be dead and they can think of me whatever they like.

What I wonder is whether they will ever forgive themselves in the century to come.

What you need to ask yourself is why those who know what is coming, who are young but old enough to vote, don't trust your point of view.

That is what is going to kill this society and the more radical the Greta followers get, the harder attitudes become.

Me? I'll do what I do, mitigate what I can.  Then I'll die and my children, grandchildren and their progeny will live out this tragedy.

The irony?

I suffered the ridicule of the damned in the 90's promoting CO2 mitigation and moderation and government action on climate change.

Now I'm ridiculed by the very group I helped to Foster all those years ago.

Imagine how I feel about it.  But, wait, nobody gives a shit about my view because they have a viewpoint and I'm "entitled" to it.

Welcome to debate in the 21st century.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #798 on: November 05, 2019, 02:44:10 PM »
VW CEO Diess says batteries are better than hydrogen, calls for carbon price
Quote
Diess stated that VW, and the greater German auto industry, needs to “change toward electrical mobility fast so that we can take the role of forerunner worldwide on this technology.”

To make this shift work for the consumer, Diess proposes two things: a price on carbon and more public charging points.

Public charging points are important for EVs because they are currently in relatively short supply, leading to the perception among non-EV drivers that there’s nowhere to charge their car. In practice, most EV drivers charge at the same spot most of the time, whether that be work or home, and thus public charging is less important than public gas stations.
https://electrek.co/2019/11/05/vw-ceo-diess-batteries-carbon-price-germany-ev-credits/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #799 on: November 05, 2019, 02:52:12 PM »
Personal EVs have no place in a equitable and sustainable world. FUCKING NONE.

Neither do 10 billion people.  So go get a list and tell the *ucking poor bastards who is going to die because it costs too much CO2 to get food to them.

I'll stand behind you as they tear you and all those who think alike, to shreds.

I know you haven't worked it out because you are too blinded by your own viewpoint to see, but the 1st world with its personal transport and money and power and waste are already producing the largest reductions in CO2 emissions in the world.

The growth?

It is coming from those who do not have,today, but are determined to have in the near future.

Go tell them they can't have because you think they should not have it.

I'll be right behind you...

Electric personal vehicles are their "birthright" and who are you, the rich hypocrite (their words not mine), to tell them otherwise?
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein