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sesyf

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #850 on: November 11, 2019, 03:44:58 PM »
Here in Finland Seat importer announced a small model Seat Mii Electric - 260 km range, so would have been adequate for my needs. Price was for two models, either about 15,500 € or a thousand more. I contacted the seller and they said that they do not take reservations any more and are selling deliveries for the next July.

Price includes special offer from Seat and national subsidy so the ’real’ price would be 4,000 more. I think I will pass this time and see whta is the situation next spring - I can arrange my traffic needs so that I can live without a car if it comes to that...

blumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #851 on: November 11, 2019, 05:47:27 PM »
so the ’real’ price would be 4,000 more.

Meaning for Germany, the sticker price could be something around 13-14k. Hmmm...
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #852 on: November 12, 2019, 02:59:33 AM »
Autonomous driving update.
Quote
Tesla_saves_lives (@SavedTesla) 11/11/19, 1:00 PM
In this video, Tesla Model 3 #Autopilot detects a group of ducks crossing the highway and avoids them. The ducks survive!
https://twitter.com/savedtesla/status/1193951656527970305
14 sec vid clip at the link.  Shadow stripes from trees on the road, too.

Tesla_saves_lives (@SavedTesla) 11/11/19, 1:00 PM
Full video and source: youtu.be/yLsBktUOcMs
     —-
For the doubters: evidence Tesla AP is now recognizing dogs, as “Pedestrians.” 
Twitter user “green” can view Autopilot (AP) programming in his Tesla.
Quote
green (@greentheonly)11/11/19, 5:01 PM
Looks pretty elaborate and not a single frame fluke?
https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1194012381497700354
First image below: dog software-labelled as pedestrian. 

green (@greentheonly)11/11/19, 5:01 PM
Hm, it looks like Tesla is now recognizing dogs as pedestrian objects ([software version] 19.36.2.1)? Or is it? That was not spelled in release notes!
https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1194012337172361218
8-sec video at the link; dog is labeled by AP as “Pedestrian.”

Mark Schey (@marks22) 11/11/19, 5:23 PM
Not reliable when running perpendicular, but: [ Image below.]
https://twitter.com/marks22/status/1194017795832451072
Second image below: photo of dog sitting in front of car, displays in AP as human!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #853 on: November 12, 2019, 08:14:38 PM »
Quote
Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 11/7/19, 11:16 PM
When the EV adoption estimates are off by >50% just two years out, something is wrong. Also, what kind of assumptions would make them think the S curve will top out at just ~5% penetration—at the same time upfront EV prices will be beating out ICE prices?
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1192656995393974272

Sam Korus (@skorusARK) 11/4/19, 12:25 PM
Historic US EV Forecasts from the EIA.
https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/1191406111842349058
[Image below.]
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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #854 on: November 13, 2019, 05:07:18 PM »
Perhaps a reason why Hybrids are losing ground in the UK.

https://www.worthingherald.co.uk/news/traffic-and-travel/worthing-electric-car-driver-gobsmacked-by-tax-bill-on-40-000-vehicle-1-9139403/amp

In 2017 the UK introduced a punishing 5 year tax on new cars.  The tax begins from year 2 and runs to year 6.

BEV carries £0 in tax and £0 in secondary tax if it is under £40,000 list.  Hybrids carry a tax range based on actual emissions and £135 per year secondary tax so long as they are under £40,000 list.

But here is the problem.  Hybrids and BEV are much more expensive than FF vehicles.

If your brand new i3 hybrid has a few extras, then it attracts £455 a year in tax from years 2-6.

Even a full BEV model 3 attracts  £320 per year because the list price of the cheapest Model 3, available in the UK, comes in over £40k.  You might wonder how the $ value translates so badly, but the answer is simple, tarrifs.

One unhappy customer who did not check it all out before buying a hybrid i3.


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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #855 on: November 13, 2019, 07:45:50 PM »
Quote
The tax begins from year 2 and runs to year 6.

Devilishly sneaky to start the tax in year two, instead of at time of sale!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #856 on: November 13, 2019, 08:51:52 PM »
Sorry, U.K.!

Tesla Rejects UK Factory Over Brexit Concerns
Quote
Tesla chief Elon Musk has revealed that Brexit uncertainty was key to his company rejecting Britain as the site of its new European factory.

The electric vehicle manufacturer has confirmed that its first European production facility will open near Berlin in 2021, with an engineering and design center also opening at the site.

Speaking to Auto Express Musk hinted that the UK had been under consideration as the location for the new plant, but lingering doubts over the effects of Britain's drawn-out departure from the European Union put an end to that idea.

"Brexit made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK," said Musk, who previously confirmed to the same title that a research and development site would be opened in the UK – a plan that has since been scrapped.
https://insideevs.com/news/382129/tesla-no-uk-factory-brexit/
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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #857 on: November 13, 2019, 11:07:07 PM »
Actually if you read the article fully, they always intended to have the fabrication plant on the mainland. It was the design centre which was going to be in the UK. This is normal as a large number of manufacturers have their design centre in the UK. If you follow that kind of thing you don't need to look it up.

I'm sure it was the uncertainty about being able to get the staff into the UK that killed it.  Along with the fact that sticking the boot into the UK right now plays well across the water.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #858 on: November 14, 2019, 01:17:40 AM »
We have a Europe wide energy market though.

Maybe I'm wrong and I'm a moron. But I'm pretty sure you are wrong, and you are the moron.

There is not some sorta magic European wide energy market.


I mean, especially for electricity. Which seems to be the point you are making.

Norway cant just sell its surplus hydro power to portugal. You believe in a world that doesn't exist. Maybe it should it should exist. Maybe we should advocate for it. But confusing that with WHAT IS, is childish, sad, and pathetic.
big time oops

CognitiveBias

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #859 on: November 14, 2019, 02:03:51 AM »
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe

The synchronous grid of Continental Europe (also known as Continental Synchronous Area; formerly known as the UCTE grid) is the largest synchronous electrical grid (by connected power) in the world. It is interconnected as a single phase-locked 50 Hz mains frequency electricity grid that supplies over 400 million customers in 24 countries, including most of the European Union. In 2009, 667 GW of production capacity was connected to the grid, providing approximately 80 GW of operating reserve margin.[1] The transmission system operators operating this grid formed the Union for the Coordination of Transmission of Electricity (UCTE), now part of the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E).

 ::) ::) ::)


NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #860 on: November 14, 2019, 10:42:37 AM »
We have a Europe wide energy market though.

Maybe I'm wrong and I'm a moron. But I'm pretty sure you are wrong, and you are the moron.

If the cap fits...

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/45/internal-energy-market

Quote
As announced in the Energy Union strategy (COM(2015) 0080), in order to give consumers secure, sustainable, competitive and affordable energy, the Commission put forward a set of legislative proposals for a new EU energy market design on 30 November 2016. The ‘Clean Energy for all Europeans’ (COM(2016) 0860) package aims to implement the Energy Union and covers energy efficiency, renewable energy, the design of the electricity market, security of electricity supply and governance rules for the Energy Union. To complete the internal energy market, the Commission therefore proposed measures in the Electricity Directive (COM(2016) 0864), Electricity Regulation (COM(2016) 0861) and Risk-Preparedness Regulation (COM(2016) 0862).
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silkman

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #861 on: November 14, 2019, 11:23:09 AM »


If your brand new i3 hybrid has a few extras, then it attracts £455 a year in tax from years 2-6.


I got caught in this trap too. I bought my i3 Rex two years ago for just £300 over £40k as a result of opting for a showroom available model that had a few extras I didn't need. With my yearly mileage at around 6000 this is 13p per mile and totally negates any cost benefit I thought I had in running the car.

I bought it to make my own statement on the importance of climate change and on the polluting impact of ICE vehicles rather than the cost savings but I have to congratulate our two faced Tory government for finding a sneaky way of recouping the lost fuel tax revenue they generated from my previous car.

nanning

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #862 on: November 14, 2019, 11:52:18 AM »
  Growing demand for SUVs 'could negate electric car benefits'

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/14/suvs-will-ensure-oil-demand-grows-for-decades-warns-iea
  by Associated Press

Global energy watchdog issues warning in climate forecast for the next two decades

Excerpts:
The world’s thirst for oil will continue to grow over the next two decades, with climate-damaging emissions climbing until at least 2040, the global energy watchdog has warned, pointing the finger at the growing appetite for gas-guzzling cars.

Growing demand for SUVs in the US, China, Europe and elsewhere could negate all the environmental benefits of the increased use of electric cars, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says. Because of their size, SUVs are harder to electrify than smaller vehicles.

SUVs “were the second biggest reason for global emissions growth in last 10 years, after the power sector and more than all the industrial sectors put together”, IEA director Fatih Birol told reporters in Paris on Wednesday.

Energy-intensive SUVs and pickup trucks account for about two-thirds of car sales in the US and only about a third in the EU, though they are steadily growing in demand in Europe, according to industry reports. Worldwide, about 42% of cars sold last year were SUVs, Birol said.

The US is central to whatever happens next. US consumers and businesses were a leading source of growing oil demand last year, the IEA said. Also, the US will account for 85% of the increase in global oil production by 2030, thanks to the shale boom.
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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #863 on: November 14, 2019, 01:48:07 PM »
but I have to congratulate our two faced Tory government for finding a sneaky way of recouping the lost fuel tax revenue they generated from my previous car.

May and Hammond, it is why they had to go.  It costs 13p per mile, IR35 is going to cost me over £1,000 per month. I claim the bigger grievance.... :)

But, in truth, something like this was always going to happen.  They are losing tax on fuel and vehicles, as EV remped up the money had to be paid.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #864 on: November 14, 2019, 02:39:37 PM »
Actually if you read the article fully, they always intended to have the fabrication plant on the mainland. It was the design centre which was going to be in the UK. This is normal as a large number of manufacturers have their design centre in the UK. If you follow that kind of thing you don't need to look it up.

I'm sure it was the uncertainty about being able to get the staff into the UK that killed it.  Along with the fact that sticking the boot into the UK right now plays well across the water.

The R&D Center was a separate consideration.  But the UK publication writes:
Quote
Speaking exclusively to Auto Express after making the Gigafactory announcement, Musk identified Brexit uncertainty as the reason why the UK wasn’t considered for the new site: “Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK,” Musk said.
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/tesla/108395/tesla-gigafactory-europe-to-be-built-in-germany-not-uk-as-elon-musk-blames-brexit
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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #865 on: November 14, 2019, 02:54:26 PM »
I read several articles in the UK press about this. Most said similar to this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-50400068

Quote
While Mr Musk in 2014 expressed a long term desire to open a UK factory, that wasn't expected this soon

In order to consider the UK for a factory you need to actually talk to the UK. Tesla talked to virtually everyone in the EU but the UK.

That 22 miles of water has its uses but manufacturing for sale in the EU is not one of them.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #866 on: November 14, 2019, 04:07:31 PM »
Germany Sets Huge All-Time Plug-In EV Car Sales Record In October
•   BEVs: 4,979 – up 47% at ≈1.75% market share
•   PHEVs: 6,947 – up 248% at ≈2.44% market share
https://insideevs.com/news/382155/germany-plugin-car-sales-record-october-2019/amp/

—-
Tesla’s out-going shipment hub in the port of San Francisco:
Quote
#friendsdontletfriendsbuyICE (@whitfletcher) 11/13/19, 4:57 PM
Pier 80 SFO. I'm including a pic from today to show the higher than expected inventory level, 85% observed. Also high level of X model in view. Deliveries continue.
https://twitter.com/whitfletcher/status/1194736128609247232
First photo below.

—-
Los Angeles adds hundreds of EV chargers to streetlights, giving renters a place to plug in
The city’s conversion of street lights to energy-efficient LEDs made the EV solution possible. The fee for charging is typically $1 to $2 per hour. Parking is free.
https://electrek.co/2019/11/13/la-adds-hundreds-of-ev-chargers-to-streetlights-giving-renters-a-place-to-plug-in/

—-
Quartzsite and Qazaqstan!

Tesla is planning new monster Supercharger V3 station to connect LA and Phoenix
https://electrek.co/2019/11/12/tesla-largest-28-stall-supercharger-v3-station-la-phoenix/
Quartzsite, Arizona.  28 stalls!

Quote
Anuarbek Imanbaev (@anuarbekiman) 11/12/19, 11:51 PM
Welcome @elonmusk & @Tesla to Kazakhstan! Elon promised and delivered!!
First Tesla Supercharger is LIVE and operational #TalanTowers in Nursultan, Kazakhstan.
#SalemElon #TalanTowers #NurSultan #Kazakhstan #Qazaqstan #Tesla #Supercharger
https://twitter.com/anuarbekiman/status/1194477899308552192
Short promo/installation montage video at the link.

—-
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1)  11/13/19, 10:15 AM
❤️ Showing some love to @Tesla owners for making our world a better place
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1194634925619593217
Second and third images below.  Doesn’t quite make up for the ICE-ing, keying, coal-rolling, and road-rage, but it helps.
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philopek

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #867 on: November 14, 2019, 07:15:32 PM »
We have a Europe wide energy market though.

Maybe I'm wrong and I'm a moron. But I'm pretty sure you are wrong, and you are the moron.

There is not some sorta magic European wide energy market.


I mean, especially for electricity. Which seems to be the point you are making.

Norway cant just sell its surplus hydro power to portugal. You believe in a world that doesn't exist. Maybe it should it should exist. Maybe we should advocate for it. But confusing that with WHAT IS, is childish, sad, and pathetic.

This time you are wrong, there IS an european grid and the norwegians CAN sell their surplus if there is any to portugal.

There even is an exchange for electricity and not only is it not "especially not for electricity" but on the opposite , it's "especially FOR electricity.

Be careful with such outright wrong posts because as long as you are using your famous wording (tone) you should be 99% right, else it's not tolerable.

blumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #868 on: November 14, 2019, 08:15:57 PM »
This time you are wrong

This time? 😳
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #869 on: November 14, 2019, 08:20:58 PM »
Quote
Maybe I'm wrong and I'm a moron. But I'm pretty sure you are wrong, and you are the moron.
There is not some sorta magic European wide energy market.

GSY nailed the first part. .....  ;D  :o

blumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #870 on: November 14, 2019, 08:24:04 PM »
Maybe it should it should exist.

I bet there are at least 99 other awesome things we can thank the EU for you don't know about. :)
The apocalypse is already here; it's just not very evenly distributed.

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #871 on: November 14, 2019, 09:02:05 PM »
I'm sure we can.  But as I am British I can also count the 1001 other things we don't like...

We are, after all, the original Anglo Saxons.

Unusually I cut GSY a bit of slack here on the knowledge side.  Most Brits are totally clueless as to the main benefits of the EU and wouldn't even know we had an energy market.

If he had a better tone and was not so in you face I might give a bit more.

Bu he isn't so he should research before calling people morons.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #872 on: November 14, 2019, 09:22:31 PM »
Bu he isn't so he should research before calling people morons.

Well, he called himself that, so i'll let this one slip through. ;)
The apocalypse is already here; it's just not very evenly distributed.

nanning

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #873 on: November 15, 2019, 08:04:28 AM »
<snip>
We are, after all, the original Anglo Saxons.

Off-topic, perhaps interesting, post:

You are not really the original group.
Frisians and some other tribes from what's now Germany (e.g. Angels, Jutes, Saxons) settled near Kent in the 5th century and started your 'Anglo Saxon' culture. The romans had left in 410 and Magna Frisia (what's now largely the Netherlands) was flooding a lot, so many people moved out of those areas.
At that time there were already other tribes living on the island. For 'original' you should probably look at the Celts, Picts etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Migration_Period
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frisian_history
https://openaccess.leidenuniv.nl/bitstream/handle/1887/20850/Bremmer%20Frisians%20in%20Anglo-Saxon%20England.pdf?sequence=7
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silkman

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #874 on: November 15, 2019, 09:16:59 AM »
but I have to congratulate our two faced Tory government for finding a sneaky way of recouping the lost fuel tax revenue they generated from my previous car.

May and Hammond, it is why they had to go.  It costs 13p per mile, IR35 is going to cost me over £1,000 per month. I claim the bigger grievance.... :)

But, in truth, something like this was always going to happen.  They are losing tax on fuel and vehicles, as EV remped up the money had to be paid.

But if they gave it a few milliseconds thought it might have occurred to them that it would make more sense to tax the rampant SUV market:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/oct/25/suvs-second-biggest-cause-of-emissions-rise-figures-reveal

But as we know, more or less across the board climate change policy is simply window dressing in the context of the current UK election. I despair!

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #875 on: November 15, 2019, 01:25:00 PM »

But if they gave it a few milliseconds thought it might have occurred to them that it would make more sense to tax the rampant SUV market:

I checked my MPV (in the garage right now), for the tax on a replacement.

It is top spec and the 2017 equivalent (they don't make mine any more), is £42,000.

Year 1 tax? £855
Years 2-6? £1,320

My tax today?  Under £300.

So I guess everyone is getting a beating unless you buy an EV for under £40,000.
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silkman

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #876 on: November 15, 2019, 02:41:51 PM »


So I guess everyone is getting a beating unless you buy an EV for under £40,000.

Thanks for the research, Neil. It makes me feel better to learn that the gas guzzlers haven't escaped the pain!

rboyd

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #877 on: November 15, 2019, 11:54:16 PM »
The Sky Is Falling On Electric Car Sales In China. Should We Run & Tell The King?

Quote
On November 11, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced sales of electric, hybrid, and fuel cell cars plunged by over 45% in October, marking four straight months of declines in the sector.

Quote
China is determined to separate the wheat from the chaff, as it were, and promoting the survival of the fittest while eliminating the charlatans who are only in it to collect the lucrative government incentives on offer. And that, says CNN, may be leaving the door wide open for foreign manufacturers like Tesla and Volkswagen, both of which have begun producing electric cars in new Chinese factories in the past few weeks.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-on-electric-car-sales-in-china-should-we-run-tell-the-king/


Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #878 on: November 16, 2019, 03:34:29 AM »
Oh, dear.
Hummer electric pickup truck scheduled to kick off brand's rebirth in 2021
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/hummer-electric-pickup-truck-production/

——
UPDATE: Ford Mustang Mach-E Revealed To The World Ahead Of Schedule
https://insideevs.com/news/382397/ford-reveals-mustang-mach-e/amp/
People like Teslas.  Let’s make a Mustang that looks like A Tesla!
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/15/19, 10:57 AM
It's glaringly obvious that @Ford marketing team pulled up a browser, typed in tesla.com/modely, copied @Tesla Model Y specs (and even the prices FFS), in hopes that engineers will figure out how to deliver on empty promises.

Live from @Porsche marketing team: ...
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1195370278278377474
Gif: woman with wine bottle sobs under a desk

Edit: And consider:
Quote
Earl of #CYBRTRKPuppy (@28delayslater) 11/15/19, 10:26 AM
Fear: For Ford to get to the #MachE price point, they will sell the car at a loss. The dealerships will have low motivation as they survive off of service.

The Mach E may be the Chevy Bolt part 2. Compliance car so they can sell trucks. I want to be wrong about this.
$F #EV ...
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1195362556027789315

Below: Article’s image from the Ford website

Edit:
Quote
Erik (@teslainventory) 11/15/19, 11:10 PM 
Very intrigued to hear the actual specs on Sunday, but now I can't unsee this.
I can only hope Ford gets away from the "grille" still.
https://twitter.com/teslainventory/status/1195554774956961793
Second photo below.  (Tesla changed to a “grill-less” style in early 2016.)
« Last Edit: November 16, 2019, 05:01:19 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #879 on: November 16, 2019, 02:24:08 PM »
EV conversion:  Drop out the ICE, drop in the electric.

Hands on with the world’s first electric crate motor
Quote
Electric GT has developed the world’s first electric crate motor to drop into any project car you might have. Whereas typical back-yard electric conversions entail scrounging up an electric motor, all the necessary control modules, and battery packs from some wrecked car or radio-shacking them together yourself, grabbing a conversion from Electric GT vastly simplifies the process for you.

Simply call up Electric GT, place an order for their V8-configured e-Crate Motor, and you’ll receive the motor, control modules, relays, computer systems, and sensors (all built into one compact unit) as well as a vehicle-appropriate number of lithium-ion battery cells. The battery capacity matters if you trying to motivate a small Italian roadster versus a heavy Toyota off-roader – both of with Electric GT has options for.

And that’s it – you’ve got yourself a “V8” that will bolt up to your existing transmission and you could be running down the road within a number of hours instead of days.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/electric-crate-motor/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #880 on: November 16, 2019, 04:01:27 PM »
Volkswagen expanding electric vehicle production in U.S.
“Electric vehicles are the future of mobility and Volkswagen will build them for millions, not just millionaires."
Quote
CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. (AP) — Volkswagen is making Tennessee its North American base for electric vehicle production, breaking ground on an $800 million expansion at its plant in Chattanooga.
https://www.boston.com/cars/car-news/2019/11/15/volkswagen-expanding-electric-vehicle-production-in-u-s

—-
Honda CEO denies electric cars, pledges hybrid support: ‘EVs will not be mainstream’
Quote
Hachigo’s statements are quite interesting, considering that Honda is preparing to launch its very own all-electric car, the Honda e. The e has been received warmly by the electric car community, though based on the CEO’s statements, and the fact that the vehicle will not be sold globally, it appears that the vehicle may very well be little more than a compliance car. Hachigo later noted that he does not think that EVs will see a dramatic increase in demand.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-rival-honda-ceo-evs-will-never-be-mainstream/
FWIW:  He’s 60 years old.

——
Quote
Automotive News (@Automotive_News) 11/15/19, 8:29 PM
Workers ratify UAW-Ford contract with 56% in favor
https://twitter.com/automotive_news/status/1195514207703191553
Article at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #881 on: November 16, 2019, 06:21:15 PM »
 :o  :o  :o  8) 

California says it won’t buy cars from GM, Toyota, others opposing tough tailpipe standards
Quote
Starting immediately, California state agencies will no longer buy gas-powered sedans, officials said Friday. And starting in January, the state will stop purchasing vehicles from carmakers that haven’t agreed to follow California’s clean car rules.

The decision affects General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Toyota and multiple other automakers that sided with the Trump administration in the ongoing battle over tailpipe pollution rules. The policy will hit General Motors particularly hard; California spent more than $27 million on passenger vehicles from GM-owned Chevrolet in 2018.

California’s Department of General Services, the state’s business manager that oversees vehicle purchases for California’s fleet, announced the bans on Friday afternoon. The immediate ban on state purchases of cars powered only by gas will include exceptions for public safety vehicles.

“The state is finally making the smart move away from internal combustion engine sedans,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement emailed to CalMatters. The new policies align with Newsom’s September executive order urging the state government to reduce greenhouse gases. “Carmakers that have chosen to be on the wrong side of history will be on the losing end of California’s buying power,” Newsom said. ...
https://calmatters.org/environment/2019/11/california-says-it-wont-buy-cars-from-gm-toyota-others-opposing-tough-fuel-standards/

Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/16/19, 7:33 AM
GM will get hit the worst by this decision:
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1195681368090595329
Circle graph below.

- Tesla's fleet sales will grow rapidly in 2020, as decision-makers realize the benefits of all-electric fleets:
Tesla Model 3 vs. Toyota Camry — 5 Year Cost of Ownership Comparisons | CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/27/tesla-model-3-vs-toyota-camry-5-year-cost-to-own/

- Annual fleet sales in the US alone exceed three million units:
Fleet Purchases Rise in 2018; Expected to Increase Marginally in 2019 - Cox Automotive Inc.
https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/fleet-purchases-rise-in-2018-expected-to-dip-in-2019/
Bar graph below.
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TerryM

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #882 on: November 16, 2019, 09:53:53 PM »
^^
Because California already has the capability to produce and distribute all of the additional clean electricity that such an edict will require.


This emotionally driven edict may cause a backlash in the coming election. Californians love their cars.


Terry

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #883 on: November 16, 2019, 10:05:30 PM »
Quote
Because California already has the capability to produce and distribute all of the additional clean electricity that such an edict will require.

Last I checked, California has a surplus of energy.

https://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.php?sid=CA

Quote
California is the most populated state in the nation, has the largest economy, and is second only to Texas in total energy consumption.1,2,3 Although California has the world's fifth-largest economy, the state has one of the lowest per capita energy consumption levels in the United States.4,5 California's extensive efforts to increase energy efficiency and implement alternative technologies have restrained growth in energy demand.6 California is also rich in energy resources. The state has an abundant supply of crude oil and is a top producer of conventional hydroelectric power.7,8 California also leads the nation in electricity generation from solar, geothermal, and biomass resources.9


I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

TerryM

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #884 on: November 16, 2019, 10:13:16 PM »
^^
Didn't I recently view a graph showing California importing large amounts of electricity?
Terry

TerryM

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #885 on: November 17, 2019, 12:23:34 AM »
California apparently won't be buying GM's Bolt or Volt, nor Toyota's Prius or hydrogen powered vehicles.


EDIT] The Nissan leaf is also excluded from California's purchases because Nissan has sided with Trump WRT mileage restrictions. The available pool is smaller than I had imagined.

The California vehicle fleet of ~51k cars and trucks, >3k of which are already hybrids or zero-emission will at some time be replaced with vehicles that meet the governors new standards. Standards WRT gasoline powered sedans that went into effect yesterday.


No clarification from the State has been forthcoming.
https://www.fresnobee.com/news/california/article237423024.html


Have any long term commitments to purchase been abrogated? Is there a cost associated with this.
Do State offices have sufficient charging stations available?
Will the sudden uptick in electrical draw cause problems upline?
Will the State be hiring additional mechanics capable of maintaining and repairing these vehicles?
Will there be costs involved if large numbers of ICE mechanics are let go?
Will there be shortages of repair parts in any of the new supply lines?


"Public Safety Vehicles" are exempted at least from the 'no gasoline powered sedans' orders. Are they also exempt from the 'no purchases from companies that don't follow your mileage initiative'?
What is the total number of vehicles that will be included?
VW, Porsche, Tesla and BMW are suppliers that meet your requirements. Do you expect the increased purchase prices will effect the State Budget?
Will the arrival of State welfare workers in what many consider to be luxury vehicles cause problems in less advantaged communities?
Will PG&E's blackouts be a cause for concern over the next 9 1/2 years, or will diesel generators take up the slack?


So many questions - why do they make these announcements on Fridays?
Terry

« Last Edit: November 17, 2019, 01:21:13 AM by TerryM »

oren

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #886 on: November 17, 2019, 01:37:44 AM »
"eliminating sedans solely powered by gas" is not the same as switching to EVs. It will certainly include lots of hybrids. Sudden uptick in electrical draw? No. As it is, 10% of new CA cars are EVs anywa, so the state's addition of a few thousand hybrids per year, some of which are EVs, will not change the situation in a precipitous manner. Charging stations? Mechanics? No.
But you forgot to ask the really important question - is this good for the environment? I think yes. If they're gonna buy new cars, they better be low emission or zero emission cars. I hope you also think it's important.

As for avoiding purchases from some carmakers, I find it an interesting way of using state economical clout to affect outcomes at the Federal level. Not sure it will work. In general I prefer the widest competition possible, but I can see the flip side of not going with your enemy.

TerryM

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #887 on: November 17, 2019, 03:12:57 AM »
WaPo says there are 40k vehicles including 8.4 k that are sedans. They also mention that many local agencies are expected to "piggyback" on State purchases.


oren, my questions re. EVs boil down to the question of where all of the needed electricity will come from & how it will be paid for. San Francisco can't afford porta potties for her inhabitants. PG&E can't afford to trim trees threatening her lines.


Estimates of 10 years to catch up on needed maintenance don't inspire much confidence that PG&E will be able to absorb the upfront costs, so spiking rates and/or more blackouts/brownouts appear likely.


The more rapidly EV's take over, the sooner someone needs to come up with buckets of cash needed for new infrastructure - at a time when the infrastructure now in place can't be maintained.


Will the trees under the new lines be properly trimmed?
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #888 on: November 17, 2019, 02:33:25 PM »
...
oren, my questions re. EVs boil down to the question of where all of the needed electricity will come from & how it will be paid for. San Francisco can't afford porta potties for her inhabitants. PG&E can't afford to trim trees threatening her lines.

Estimates of 10 years to catch up on needed maintenance don't inspire much confidence that PG&E will be able to absorb the upfront costs, so spiking rates and/or more blackouts/brownouts appear likely.

The more rapidly EV's take over, the sooner someone needs to come up with buckets of cash needed for new infrastructure - at a time when the infrastructure now in place can't be maintained.

Will the trees under the new lines be properly trimmed?
Terry

To everyone who is not clinging to the past, and who has been following the news, California’s actions are simply the next, obvious step in the EV transition that is already happening.   

Grid challenge arguments are simply FUD.  Tesla is on the verge of installing more solar and battery storage than its cars use — they expect to begin reporting those numbers soon.
(Source: Tesla Q3 conference call.)

Car-loving California began tackling its smog problem decades ago with restrictions on car emissions, HOV lanes, and ultimatums to car manufacturers.  The current U.S. president and his venal, partisan administration have merely forced the issue to the forefront.  If California is not to be pushed backward, it must push ahead.  A long list of scattershot challenges (FUD) is a weak argument against progress that will have massive positive payback, from health benefits to lower cost of use for millions of vehicle owners and riders.

From the Nevada taxi company that recently ordered 80 Teslas, to the municipalities in almost every state with a ZEV bus mandate, the EV revolution is well underway.  California’s actions Friday are just one more step in that direction:

Quote
GAS OFF  (@GasOff2) 11/10/19, 3:27 PM
Went to Tesla Las Vegas yesterday. My Rep said a local Taxi company bought 80 Teslas! No reservations allowed for December, no test drives, no test cars, just concentrating on very high delivery demand for December. Reserve now to take delivery for Dec. for last tax write off.
https://twitter.com/gasoff2/status/1193626219809370112

"As previously reported, Tesla’s vehicles are becoming particularly popular with taxis in the Netherlands, Sweden, and Norway, and are starting to get there in America too with fleets like Columbus Yellow Cab’s."
Tesla Model 3 becomes first electric car approved as NYC yellow cab
https://electrek.co/2019/10/29/tesla-model-3-first-electric-car-approved-nyc-yellow-cab/

U.S. Electric Bus Demand Outpaces Production as Cities Add to Their Fleets
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/14112019/electric-bus-cost-savings-health-fuel-charging

Los Angeles adds hundreds of EV chargers to streetlights, giving renters a place to plug in
The city’s conversion of street lights to energy-efficient LEDs made the EV solution possible. The fee for charging is typically $1 to $2 per hour. Parking is free.
https://electrek.co/2019/11/13/la-adds-hundreds-of-ev-chargers-to-streetlights-giving-renters-a-place-to-plug-in/

Faster charging means more EVs can charge using the same number of stations:
Quote
Shelly Fraval (@veganshelly) 11/15/19, 6:04 PM 
superchargers are too damn fast these days... give me some time to eat
#tesla #superchargers
https://twitter.com/veganshelly/status/1195477624350330880
« Last Edit: November 17, 2019, 02:38:42 PM by Sigmetnow »
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TerryM

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #889 on: November 17, 2019, 03:43:05 PM »
Sig
I've owned property in So. California since 1964, so I've some knowledge of the State and its people. Musk's proclamations during conference calls can't be taken as truth as has been proven by the depositions given under oath in the SolarCity fraud case.


He also promised that GF1 would produce so much solar and wind energy that it would actually be net positive for the grid. That went the way of the Alien Dreadnought that he belatedly admitted was a very expensive error in judgment. [edited] GF2 to the corrected GF1


I'm sure you remember the (German)? cab company that dropped Tesla after experiencing quality problems, parts delays and warranty problems - wasn't their original order also for 80 model 3s?


Regardless, my argument didn't address any specific EV manufacturer or the suitability of their particular vehicles. If California skewes it's purchases in favor of the PHEV/Hybrid segment my grid argument will fall on its face. If however the governor's edict swings purchases heavily in favor of BEV vehicles, then PG&E and others will need to find bankers with deep pockets who are willing to bet that the utilities can handle a very large, very rapid buildout while remaining solvent and paying their debts.


Perhaps we'll learn more on Monday?
Terry
« Last Edit: November 17, 2019, 04:10:18 PM by TerryM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #890 on: November 17, 2019, 04:45:22 PM »
I’m more interested in the supply/demand perspective.  How difficult a goal is the new California (CA) rule?

“According the Governor Newsome's office, California’s state vehicle fleet currently includes about 51,000 cars and trucks. As of 2018, only about 6% of the fleet were BEVs or plug-in hybrids. Therefore, this new policy has the potential to add tens of thousands of all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles to the fleet over the next four to five years.”
https://insideevs.com/news/382687/california-bans-government-purchase-of-gas-cars/

Tesla sold about 135,000 cars in the U.S., YTD 2019 (per Inside EVs).  So if about 1/4 of the California fleet is replaced each year, that 13,000/yr or so potential “extra” orders is well within Tesla’s existing organic growth targets.  [And, I imagine, state infrastructure planning.]  The hope is of course that other manufacturers will step up and offer more EVs as well.  And that GM and the other companies arguing against the California initiative will feel the bite of fewer ICE sales and switch their allegiance!

Counter-arguments/thoughts:
- It will mostly benefit Tesla — a California car company. 
Yes.  How about that!? :)

- Purchasers’ EV deliveries might be delayed, due to manufacturers’ production constraints. 
Nothing Tesla buyers aren’t familiar with. ;)  One deals with it.

- “But those buyers could be driving cleaner more quickly if they could buy any BEV or hybrid.” 
But the state, and the world, could be driving cleaner more quickly if manufacturers are pressured into making and selling more than just the number of compliance EVs they’ve had to make up to now to avoid fines.  We need the industry to move faster than current regulations require.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2019, 04:57:17 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #891 on: November 17, 2019, 05:02:47 PM »
New report:
EV Sales to Soar Even if Trump Wins Fight With Calif. Regulators
November 13, 2019
Quote
Electrified vehicles will account for half of all new passenger vehicle sales globally by 2030, according to Morningstar Equity Research.

China and the European Union, with strong air quality rules pushing electrified vehicles, will lead the way. The U.S. will trail because of its weak federal government enthusiasm for the technology.

Morningstar’s report is of particular interest because it takes into account the likely outcomes of the Trump Administration’s effort to nullify California’s ability to set tougher-than-federal emissions standards.

TRUMP VS CALIFORNIA
The ongoing battle between the Trump Administration and California over the states right to set its own rules could ultimately impact the way the U.S. market looks. But Morningstar doesn’t expect a drastic change, whatever happens.

If California prevails in its suit to retain its emissions rules autonomy, “automakers will produce vehicles to that standard, effectively making California’s rule the national standard,” the report said.

If California loses, Morningstar said it expects that hybrids and EVs still will continue increasing share.

U.S. automakers will have to continue developing electrified vehicles to remain competitive in the rest of the world. Sales will rise because electrified vehicle costs will fall as production and operating costs drop in the normal course of technology development, the report said.

The report sets today’s operating cost at 20.2 cents per mile for a conventional internal combustion vehicle versus 17.9 cents for hybrids and 14.1 cents for EVs. …  By 2020, the report said, an internal combustion vehicle will cost 19.5 cents per mile to operate, versus 16.6 cents for a hybrid and just 12.9 cents for an EV.
https://www.trucks.com/2019/10/28/ev-sales-soar-even-if-trump-wins-fight-with-calif-regulators/
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #892 on: November 17, 2019, 06:13:03 PM »
Terry, I wonder how many Tesla owners have enough solar installed on their residences to keep their cars charged without pulling off the grid ? There are over a million solar residential installs already working in Calif. but having enough solar kW to run your house is but a fraction of what it takes to charge a Tesla EV.  Just a guess but I would think you need an addition 10 kW for each EV.  Charging during daylight is far more efficient than buying enough powerwalls to charge an EV at night.
 There are lots of Tesla’s on the road now in the richer neighborhoods of SB, LA, and SF. I think many of these Tesla’s are charged on low nighttime grid rates but it would be interesting to see numbers. Calif. is pushing ahead with the transition to EV but to really make that fleet “ renewable “ I think I would need to see a lot more 15-20 kW solar roof installs.
 The Tesla powerwall is working like a top. Tesla is providing infrastructure alternatives that we didn’t have ten years ago. It is technically possible to run your home and an EV on solar but I don’t often see real numbers about what it costs. My solar install for 5 kW was $23,000 with a $10,000 tax rebate.The two powerwalls were another $22,000 with an $11,000 rebate. Triple that if you intend on charging an EV and many of the rebates are finished now. Without rebates something over $100,000 for solar/ batteries plus the $40,000 Tesla.
 A house can easily run  a million to two million dollars in the tony neighborhoods where you see the largest number of Tesla’s. I simply don’t see how many people can afford the price tag but any insight offered by a  pig farmer  driving an old Ford truck is OK boomer . I am just reporting on what it cost me.

TerryM

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #893 on: November 17, 2019, 06:47:39 PM »
Sig

Any ideas on why Morningstar believes that the cost of purchasing electricity will drop from 14.1 cents/mile to 12.9 cents next year - even though electrical producers and distributors will be faced with the costs of expanding their entire infrastructure?


The report sets today’s operating cost at 20.2 cents per mile for a conventional internal combustion vehicle versus 17.9 cents for hybrids and 14.1 cents for EVs. …  By 2020, the report said, an internal combustion vehicle will cost 19.5 cents per mile to operate, versus 16.6 cents for a hybrid and just 12.9 cents for an EV.

Lower costs/mile driven regardless of what you're driving is a Wonderful Vision, but just how this occurs while electrical suppliers face the staggering costs of rapid expansion & fossil fuel suppliers face costs associated with lower sales volume must be far beyond my pay grade.

California's addition to the already rapid growth of BEVs simply requires an equally large addition to California's already stretched electrical grid.

Gerontocrat's excellent chart shows that the largest addition to California's grid comes not from solar, wind, or renewables, but from importing ever larger quantities of electricity from outside the state. This isn't cheap and it may not be sustainable if the surrounding states find that domestic EV usage is cutting into their exportable power.

PG&E , the nation's largest utility company filed for bankruptcy in 2001, then again in 2019 citing 34B$ in unpaid debt. Apparently Con Edison and Excelon aren't far behind, each facing "massive systemic risks" As The Motley Fool writes, It's a "Tough time to be a Utility Investor".
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/11/07/pges-bankruptcy-a-bad-sign-for-american-utilities.aspx

Who is going to lend them money for a massive expansion when they can't even cover their existing liabilities?
In the end it's PG&E's customers who will pay the price, and as prices rise more and more major users will turn away from the company, leaving fewer customers to pay the piper.

Would a doubling of electrical charges be sufficient to pay the interest on the present debt? Would a buyout by the state be preferable as it shifts the burden from high energy users to all Californian taxpayers?
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #894 on: November 17, 2019, 07:11:13 PM »
Sig

Any ideas on why Morningstar believes that the cost of purchasing electricity will drop from 14.1 cents/mile to 12.9 cents next year - even though electrical producers and distributors will be faced with the costs of expanding their entire infrastructure?


The report sets today’s operating cost at 20.2 cents per mile for a conventional internal combustion vehicle versus 17.9 cents for hybrids and 14.1 cents for EVs. …  By 2020, the report said, an internal combustion vehicle will cost 19.5 cents per mile to operate, versus 16.6 cents for a hybrid and just 12.9 cents for an EV.

Lower costs/mile driven regardless of what you're driving is a Wonderful Vision, but just how this occurs while electrical suppliers face the staggering costs of rapid expansion & fossil fuel suppliers face costs associated with lower sales volume must be far beyond my pay grade. ...

Terry,
The lower cost of ownership for EVs involves much more than electricity.  While gas prices continue to rise, the electricity needed to move a mile in an EV keeps going down, due to increased efficiency — better battery chemistry, better and cheaper battery packs, better battery management software. Smaller and more aerodynamic models.

And, increasing numbers of EV owners make their own “fuel.”  Try that with your ICE car! ;)

While the electricity to fuel an EV is cheaper than to fuel an ICE equivalent, there are also maintenance costs for ICE cars that EVs do not have.  Oil changes, for example.  The odds of one or more of the thousands of parts in an ICE car needing fixing are much greater than the fewer parts of an EV.  And software fixes are much cheaper than physical fixes. (For Teslas, anyway.)

Many EV owners are finding that insurance costs for their new EV are less than their previous ICE car.  With its data and EV savy, Tesla as competition is helping drive down the cost that other insurance companies charge for Teslas.

Tesla Model 3 vs. Toyota Camry — 5 Year Cost of Ownership Comparisons
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/27/tesla-model-3-vs-toyota-camry-5-year-cost-to-own/
« Last Edit: November 17, 2019, 07:19:13 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #895 on: November 17, 2019, 07:13:39 PM »
Tesla, Elon Musk, And Geely Are Putting German Automakers On Notice
Quote
... American cars have cowboy mystique, Japanese cars are cheap and reliable, but German cars are high-tech, precision machines. If Germany’s expert engineers can’t master the new technologies, who can?

Unfortunately, the Germans lost two decades in a detour that led to a dead end. While the Japanese developed hybrids, the Germans doubled down on diesels and, when this inevitably failed, resorted to gaming the system and breaking the law in order to maintain the pretense that a century-old technology was the best way to reduce emissions.

The Germans were alerted to the existential threat from Tesla when they commissioned a teardown of Model 3 and discovered that the Silicon Valley startup was years ahead of them in several areas, from batteries to power electronics to network connections. Tesla’s recent surprise announcement of a healthy profit, along with its relentless ramp-up in China, reminded everyone that the pressure won’t be letting up.

Any possibility that the Germans might still try to brush off the Tesla challenge were vaporized by Elon Musk’s surprise announcement that the next Gigafactory will be located near Berlin. With Tesla racing on their home track, European automakers will be forced to compete, cooperate or (hopefully) both. As the Detroit News put it, Elon Musk is “sending a stark message to some of the world’s most prestigious automakers that he’s headed for their home turf.”

However, there’s another automotive megatrend that can’t be ignored - China. The auto industry’s center of gravity is steadily migrating to the Middle Kingdom, and this presents existential challenges to global legacy automakers on several fronts.

China has an increasing amount of influence over global auto brands’ decisions - the majority of the new EVs that have been announced in recent months will debut in the Chinese market. Volkswagen has enjoyed strong sales of legacy vehicles in China, but when it comes to EVs, the German brands are lagging far behind local automakers and Tesla. …
https://insideevs.com/news/382500/tesla-musk-geely-threat-german-automakers/
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TerryM

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #896 on: November 17, 2019, 07:48:13 PM »
Bruce
Wonderful to get input from someone on the front lines. ;)
My home in Southern California is not compatible with solar or wind. Far too many large trees that neither I nor my neighbors would want to see cut. I'm actually required to get the city's permission to trim one. It's a relatively large home on a small lot, and viewed from the air by Google every detail is obscured by leaves.


While the costs you've posted are daunting, I've questions remaining about the area of the solar panels required to drive about in an EV. I fear that many urban Californian homes, at least those away from the deserts may face problems similar to mine, where regardless of intentions neither solar nor wind are viable.


Charging during daylight hours as you suggest is going to present problems for anyone who unlike yourself needs to commute to a day job. Charging over the weekend might be possible if the commutes aren't too long, & if staying home every weekend fits your lifestyle.


My home is in the $500k range, something much closer to what the median owner could afford. Adding a 20kw solar system @ $100k, if it were possible would be hard to justify.


Your successful use of solar and batteries illustrates that living off the grid in California can be done without lowering your expectations.
Good Stuff!!
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #897 on: November 18, 2019, 03:12:42 AM »
Terry wrote:
Quote
Charging during daylight hours as you suggest is going to present problems for anyone who unlike yourself needs to commute to a day job.

Tesla owners charge at work, or stop by a supercharger when needed.  A Tesla’s range is often sufficient for several days of commuting between charges.

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The Tesla website gives a cost of about $25,000 for a “medium” solar system (designed for a two- to three-thousand square foot home) in California with two powerwalls.  (You’d probably want a third powerwall with an EV).  $35,571 before incentives.
https://www.tesla.com/energy/design
« Last Edit: November 18, 2019, 03:17:48 AM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #898 on: November 18, 2019, 03:16:40 AM »
The more rapidly EV's take over, the sooner someone needs to come up with buckets of cash needed for new infrastructure - at a time when the infrastructure now in place can't be maintained.

Regardless, my argument didn't address any specific EV manufacturer or the suitability of their particular vehicles. If California skewes it's purchases in favor of the PHEV/Hybrid segment my grid argument will fall on its face. If however the governor's edict swings purchases heavily in favor of BEV vehicles, then PG&E and others will need to find bankers with deep pockets who are willing to bet that the utilities can handle a very large, very rapid buildout while remaining solvent and paying their debts.

Lower costs/mile driven regardless of what you're driving is a Wonderful Vision, but just how this occurs while electrical suppliers face the staggering costs of rapid expansion & fossil fuel suppliers face costs associated with lower sales volume must be far beyond my pay grade.

California's addition to the already rapid growth of BEVs simply requires an equally large addition to California's already stretched electrical grid.

Gerontocrat's excellent chart shows that the largest addition to California's grid comes not from solar, wind, or renewables, but from importing ever larger quantities of electricity from outside the state. This isn't cheap and it may not be sustainable if the surrounding states find that domestic EV usage is cutting into their exportable power.

Who is going to lend them money for a massive expansion when they can't even cover their existing liabilities?

Terry, your whole argument is centered about a repeat assumption (underlined in the quotes above) that I recommend to check, as I believe it is simply wrong. The California electrical system is undergoing a slow contraction for the past few years, even while EVs are added in large numbers throughout the state. (I would not be surprised at all if PG&E's problems stem from this very fact - their business is shrinking while their infrastructure requires constant maintenance.) Part of the reason for the contraction is the addition of solar behind the meter (BTM), whether by EV owners or by others. The other reason is increased energy efficiencies.

For PG&E a rapid growth in EVs could potentially be the savior - the grid is already there, and for the same infrastructure could deliver many more GWh for EV charging, which is especially done during the night (time of lowest grid usage) or during office hours for those charging at work (time of the solar peak). This is almost ideal for a utility which gets paid by delivered GWh. A rapid buildout in the grid will only be needed much later, and quite possibly the extra demand from EVs is exactly what could pay for this expansion when it is finally needed.

California saw a peak of total system generation (in-state plus imports) of 302,000 GWh in 2012, after the recovery from the Great Recession. Since then it was mostly downhill, and in 2018 came in at 285,000 GWh. In the meantime solar BTM in 2018 was estimated at 13,500 GWh, roughly similar to the missing system generation. In-state generation (excluding solar BTM) fluctuated around 200 GWh during the period, mostly dependent on changes in precipitation (=hydro power).

On the other hand, in 2012 California had 12,000 EVs, while in 2018 the number grew to 286,000 EVs (and 237,000 plug-in hybrids). According to your assumption electricity demand should have rapidly expanded. However, quite the opposite happened. Maybe EV owners compensated by installing solar behind the meter. But be that as it may, your scary scenarios are not playing out in real life.

Sources:
https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_system_power.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_California#Sales_and_market_share

KiwiGriff

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #899 on: November 18, 2019, 03:33:00 AM »
This is why Terry is on my ignore list .
He is full of it and adds nothing of any value .

Terry has in the past claimed he lives in an apartment specifically he said he would stop anyone installing a charger in his basement garage due to fire risk.

How much do solar panels cost for the average house in California in 2019?
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As of November 2019, the average cost of solar panels per watt in California is $3.45/watt. A typical 6000 watt (6 kW) solar system is $20,673 before the federal solar credit and $14,471 after claiming the federal solar tax credit.
More panels installed the less the cost per W.
 https://www.solarreviews.com/solar-panels/solar-panel-cost/cost-of-solar-panels-in-california

Average mileage driven in the USA.
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According to United States Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, Americans now drive an average of 13,476 miles per year. Nov 1, 2018

 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus - 253 Wh/mile(157 Wh/km) EPA

13476/ 365 = 37 miles per day. Miles driven times 253 Wh = 9.4 kWh

At only 3 hours direct sunlight daily  a 4 KW array would easily provide for the average users transport needs.

Full of shite....

« Last Edit: November 18, 2019, 03:56:19 AM by KiwiGriff »