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Bruce Steele

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #900 on: November 18, 2019, 06:10:07 AM »
The Tesla app tells me exactly what I use and how much power I put back onto the grid. So for the 17 days this month my house was 99% solar( 244kW ) and it put 93kW back onto the grid. If I had a Tesla EV that 93kW is what I could use to charge my car and still be 99% solar. I think a full charge on a Tesla S is 85kW so you could drive about 250 miles. If your commute was less than 10 miles one way you might be able to get by. Mind you  the 93 kW that went back onto the grid was daylight hours. A powerwall holds 13.5 kW and part of that power is held in reserve for power to carry you through any blackout potential.  You really do need three or four powerwalls if you intend to use them to charge an EV at night. And I am not BSing two cost $22,000. There is no rebates for anything over two here in Calif. and the federal rebate ends next month. Somewhere north of $30,000 out of pocket with no rebate to get four powerwalls installed .
 Terry ,I suspect ,is correct about EV putting extra stress on existing infrastructure. Maybe the behind the meter production covers part of the extra that EV charging requires but I doubt it covers much because those behind the meter hours are all daytime and that isn’t when the EVs are getting home charging done. So EVs charge with nighttime power that is mostly fossil fuel energy.
 We might admit that most families are two car families and the numbers become even more daunting with power required for two EVs.
 I think solar is a great improvement over conventional power supplies but transportation is still a very large power drain and very few people will buy enough battery backup to truly get them to anything close to 99% renewable .


 
 
 

KiwiGriff

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #901 on: November 18, 2019, 07:34:12 AM »
The S is a large performance sedan.
The 3 is closer to your average car in size.
250 miles range combined from a 54kwh battery for the 3 SR+ according to the EPA .

 No need for installing dedicated chargers.  Even the pathetic US 110 volt 15 amp domestic supply is able to add plenty of range while you work or sleep. Yes we will need to add infrastructure like  power points  in  carparks so you can trickle charge during the day. Need more range than that in in a week just top up at a level 2 charger while you are shopping, at the gym or whenever.

The grid  itself can presently cope with peak demands usually when every one gets home from work.    Electric cars  come with a timer to schedule charging.  Demand pricing to send a signal when it is most efficient to charge will help sort out  demand profiles. As appliances and lighting gets replaced with modern more efficient technology electricity demand is actually falling in most places.

We would need to get to over 50% adoption before any real issues with the grid capacity arise if they ever do at all.

  None of this is magic unknown technology , undo able or astronomically expensive.
 We are facing a challenge that many resist based on conservative fear of change not reality. 

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #902 on: November 18, 2019, 02:06:30 PM »
That is a very optimistic view.  It may be true today but grid planners must plan for avoiding cascade failure.  Driving the grid close to 100% makes a cascade failure just that much more likely.

Hence when planning for EV charging, the grid must be more robust than the expected demand.

It is no use hitting limits on the grid with tens of thousands of new EV shipping every month when the answer to "how long will it take to fix" is 3 years.

I agree, 12k to 250k without impact is a good sign.  However if it is simply a matter of using the slack capacity, then another 250k, or 1 million, may drive it right off the deep end.

It will bear watching and real concerns as to the impact of shifting even 10% of fuel energy  onsumption to a highly utilised grid should be treated with at least a little respect.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #903 on: November 18, 2019, 04:43:51 PM »
avoiding cascade failure

...

Driving the grid close to 100%

...

the grid must be more robust

...

hitting limits

...

deep end

Neil, when one reads that, they could get the impression it's hard to install plugs.

Turns out, mankind is pretty good with installing plugs. There are plugs all around you.

With 100% EVs we need 20% more power. It takes like 10-15 years to get near to this 100%. Are you really believing that mankind isn't able to install 20% more (slightly different) plugs in 15 years? C'mon...
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #904 on: November 18, 2019, 05:09:04 PM »
Many different trims announced: RWD, AWD; 76 or 98 kWh liquid-cooled battery, ranges around 210-300 miles. Plus special editions.  Limited editions “late 2020,” volume production Spring 2021?  No autonomous features revealed.  Elon Musk tweeted his congratulations. Teslarati cheers it on.  Good luck, Ford!

Ford’s Mustang Mach E is a valuable Tesla Model Y ally in the crossover segment
Quote
The Ford Mustang Mach E is an all-electric vehicle that will place it in the same segment as the upcoming Tesla Model Y. The two vehicles are priced in pretty much the same ballpark, with the Mach E’s standard range RWD version starting at around $43,900 in comparison to the Standard Range RWD Model Y’s $39,000. That’s a $4,900 difference, but Ford still has the full $7,500 tax credit, which makes the Mach E actually less expensive than the Model Y.

Looking at the price and performance figures of the Mustang Mach E, it is evident that the vehicle is meant to be competitive. The entry-level “Select” variant, for one, will be offered at both RWD and AWD versions, and both will be equipped with a 75.7kWh “standard range” battery pack. The RWD variant will have a range of 230 miles and a 0-60 mph time of about 6-7 seconds, while the AWD version will have a range of 210 miles and be about a second quicker from 0-60. The Mach E Select variants will be shipping in Spring 2021.

Following the Select variants is the “Premium” trim, which starts at $50,600 and ships late 2020, just a few months later than the Model Y’s estimated Summer 2020 release. Premium Mach Es can be equipped with either a standard range pack or an extended range battery, and RWD or AWD. With this, a Premium Mach E could have a range anywhere between 210 miles per charge for the standard range AWD trim, all the way to 300 miles per charge for the extended range with RWD. AWD versions of the Mach E Premium trim can hit 60 mph in the over 5 seconds, while the RWD versions will hit highway speeds in the mid-6s. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/ford-mustang-mach-e-tesla-model-y-ally/
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gerontocrat

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #905 on: November 18, 2019, 07:21:01 PM »
avoiding cascade failure

Driving the grid close to 100%


the grid must be more robust


Neil, when one reads that, they could get the impression it's hard to install plugs.

Turns out, mankind is pretty good with installing plugs. There are plugs all around you.

With 100% EVs we need 20% more power. It takes like 10-15 years to get near to this 100%. Are you really believing that mankind isn't able to install 20% more (slightly different) plugs in 15 years? C'mon...
Plugs ?
We are talking about the grid. Transmission lines, large transformers etc etc.
We are also talking about far more than 20% more power.
We are also talking about replacing the majority of current fossil fuel electricity production with renewables.

The existing grid is built on receiving power from a relatively few large power sources. The grid will have to be redesigned to take power from a vast array of large and small wind and solar power plants and perhaps take power from and give power to of millions of individual houses / offices / factories.

This will take real money and real hands-on management. Both are in short supply.

C'mon. Plugs- really.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #906 on: November 18, 2019, 07:36:53 PM »
This will take real money and real hands-on management. Both are in short supply.

You don't usually know me as a guy who praises free markets and such, Gerontocrat. But even i can't dismiss that market forces are a thing. If there is a demand, there will be someone who does that business. Therefore, the grid will grow according to demand, plus reserves (this is a function of keeping the grid running in the first place).

But ok, i'll hear your arguments. Who's the one restricting the power when i'm wrong? Who gets their power cut?
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nanning

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #907 on: November 18, 2019, 07:49:34 PM »
<snip>
If there is a demand, there will be someone who does that business. Therefore, the grid will grow according to demand

Hi blumenkraft, I think it is not business that makes the grid and infrastructure: That'll be the state. Is my thinking correct do you think?

edit:
Quote from: gerontocrat
This will take real money and real hands-on management. Both are in short supply.
Beautiful observation :)
« Last Edit: November 18, 2019, 08:02:36 PM by nanning »
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blumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #908 on: November 18, 2019, 08:02:30 PM »
Sadly, Nanning, not even in Europe the grid is in public hands anymore.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #909 on: November 18, 2019, 08:38:45 PM »
This will take real money and real hands-on management. Both are in short supply.

You don't usually know me as a guy who praises free markets and such, Gerontocrat. But even i can't dismiss that market forces are a thing. If there is a demand, there will be someone who does that business. Therefore, the grid will grow according to demand, plus reserves (this is a function of keeping the grid running in the first place).

But ok, i'll hear your arguments. Who's the one restricting the power when i'm wrong? Who gets their power cut?
I'll not be surprised if I've got some of this wrong. Here goes.

The UK National grid is now run by a private company. It manages and operates the high-voltage transmission system (275kv & 400 kv). It takes power from a number of companies that operate the power stations. Then of course there are the local grids run by a number of electricity suppliers who supply the retail customers. Some also own power stations. Things get complicated when an internal market is forced onto a natural monopoly.

And now a large number and variety of large small and individual renewable installations add to the mix.

Someone has to make a single and reliable national system out of this mess.

On Aug 9th the UK had blackouts.  The article linked below tells you who gets cut first and who gets cut last. The last to get done is forced disconnection of households - means the network has failed.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-blackout-kemp/column-britains-blackout-raises-questions-about-reliability-idUKKCN1V50TH
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BeeKnees

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #910 on: November 18, 2019, 10:55:02 PM »
On Aug 9th the UK had blackouts.  The article linked below tells you who gets cut first and who gets cut last. The last to get done is forced disconnection of households - means the network has failed.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-blackout-kemp/column-britains-blackout-raises-questions-about-reliability-idUKKCN1V50TH

There was a failure, 
The likelihood is that the gas turbine failure tripped the wind farm.  If the UK had a larger storage network it could've compensated and made the problem less likely to cause failure elsewhere.  Sadly the contracts to deliver this got blocked.

https://www.power-technology.com/features/between-the-eu-and-a-technological-hard-place-what-is-behind-uk-blackouts/

 

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #911 on: November 18, 2019, 11:36:03 PM »
The lightning strike caused little Barford to go offline, that is for certain.

If you go to the Hornsea wiki page, it tells you that Hornsea disconnected due to a software fault which was fixed the next day.  No mention of what the error was.

Something which fails to be mentioned consistently in articles is the train mayhem.

It appears that many of the trains which suddenly lost power had no UPS and no graceful shutdown.  Those trains failed to reboot on power restore and an engineer had to visit every train.

Causing total mayhem. The power may have been restored within 45 minutes but the train outage went on all night.

This kind of problem causes a lack of confidence in renewables at a time when rollout is becoming faster and traditional power gen is being removed permenantly.
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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #912 on: November 18, 2019, 11:44:26 PM »
This will take real money and real hands-on management. Both are in short supply.

C'mon. Plugs- really.

The point I was also making.  When you have just blown up 4GW  of old coal power station is not the time to say "oops we are short of power".

Not when it takes years, to decades, to build wind farms.

Hence the point about making the grid more robust with overcapacity in the glut times.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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TerryM

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #913 on: November 19, 2019, 01:02:56 AM »
Gentleman
Why so much vitriol?
I prefer getting information about residential solar pricing, capacity needs, and questions about the applicability of battery backup from a long time contributor with timely firsthand experience gained as he uses these systems in California.


Is anyone prepared to argue that data from Tesla/SolarCity's promotional literature is a less biased, more robust source?


Arguing about the number of plugs available & the ease of installing additional plugs is directly comparable to the allegorical housewife arguing that she can't be overdrawn because she still has checks to write. ???


I'm not sure that electricity produced in California is a useful metric. California has been importing an increasing percentage of grid energy for some time. Has the amount of electricity purchased by Californians been dropping? One of Gerontocrat's charts could clear that up - at least to my satisfaction.


The mighty Hoover Dam once Lit up Los Angeles, now it's only good for peaking. Sid noted that the huge coal fired plant in Arizona (2.25 GW) is now shuttered. California is decommissioning massive nuclear plants.


If California were capable of generating all of the power she requires I've no doubt she'd be doing so. Instead she's buying more and more energy from economic competitors, even as EV's are taking an increasing share.


With this year's "Rolling Blackouts" the statistics will be skewed. Are the shortages primarily made up for with solar/battery installations, or with gasoline/diesel fired generators? The photos from a few weeks ago showing EV owners loading their "fronks" with quantities of fuel from local gas stations indicates that even those that publicly present themselves as ecologically concerned aren't averse to keeping the refrigerator running using fossil fuel.


Another thing that might be worth considering is "Cheap energy at Night". It's cheap right now only because a very few people use it. As "smart" appliances increasingly shift their load to hours with little demand, the demand during those hours will increase as will the cost.
This is probably good for the energy providers and distributors as every nickel saved by a consumer is a nickel that PG&E won't have available to spend on maintenance or to invest in upgrades to their system.


Can PG&E afford the many upgrades that electrified transportation will require?
Should this financial burden be carried by EV users alone, or shared with every electrical customer - or the taxpayers of California or the whole countries tax base?


The question of who will pay for needed road maintenance, in part made necessary by heavier and potentially faster EV's, even as gasoline/diesel taxes tank is a separate concern. One easily solved but one that anyone concerned about the costs of driving an EV should consider.
Terry

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #914 on: November 19, 2019, 02:00:19 AM »
The existing grid is built on receiving power from a relatively few large power sources. The grid will have to be redesigned to take power from a vast array of large and small wind and solar power plants and perhaps take power from and give power to of millions of individual houses / offices / factories.

I love this description of the challenge.  This is exactly what must be done. While doing it, we will gain resiliency for free.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #915 on: November 19, 2019, 02:05:55 AM »
I'm not sure that electricity produced in California is a useful metric. California has been importing an increasing percentage of grid energy for some time. Has the amount of electricity purchased by Californians been dropping? One of Gerontocrat's charts could clear that up - at least to my satisfaction.

If California were capable of generating all of the power she requires I've no doubt she'd be doing so. Instead she's buying more and more energy from economic competitors, even as EV's are taking an increasing share.
...
Can PG&E afford the many upgrades that electrified transportation will require?
Terry, usually I enjoy crossing posts with you, but now I am a bit frustrated. Did you happen to just skim through my post? I gave you just the chart you are now asking for, I also gave you a source to verify for yourself, and yet you still revert to your assumptions - that electricity demand has been trending up (it hasn't, quite the opposite) and that electricity imports have been trending up (they haven't - quite the opposite).

California saw a peak of total system generation (in-state plus imports) of 302,000 GWh in 2012, after the recovery from the Great Recession. Since then it was mostly downhill, and in 2018 came in at 285,000 GWh. In the meantime solar BTM in 2018 was estimated at 13,500 GWh, roughly similar to the missing system generation. In-state generation (excluding solar BTM) fluctuated around 200 GWh during the period, mostly dependent on changes in precipitation (=hydro power).

On the other hand, in 2012 California had 12,000 EVs, while in 2018 the number grew to 286,000 EVs (and 237,000 plug-in hybrids). According to your assumption electricity demand should have rapidly expanded. However, quite the opposite happened. Maybe EV owners compensated by installing solar behind the meter. But be that as it may, your scary scenarios are not playing out in real life.

Sources:
https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_system_power.html

I re-post the chart. Total system generation (yellow) is what you were looking for. Imports are the difference between Total system generation and in-state generation, with 2017 and then 2018 the lowest import years since 2010.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #916 on: November 19, 2019, 03:11:39 AM »
Quote
Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast) 11/18/19, 5:00 PM
Ford CEO Jim Hackett explains choice to produce Mustang Mach-E in Mexico:
"When it came time to build the EV, you have to build a different kind of factory. So we didn’t want to complicate the 2 lines together."
Legacy automakers' scale is not beneficial in EV transition.

https://twitter.com/teslapodcast/status/1196548879937933312

Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast)11/18/19, 5:20 PM
From this interview [video link below], which has other interesting discussion:
Profit, China, and Europe...:

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/ford-ceo-says-electric-mustang-054755970.html


Edit:  About that video:
Quote
< Ford President on CNBC interview just said Mach-E "..will be contribution margin positive"

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/18/19, 8:44 AM
IOW, marginal cost will be below price, but it could also mean that Mach-E will NOT be GROSS margin positive
For comparison, Tesla's Auto gross margin was 23% in Q3'19, and I expect it to rise in 2020...
Legacy automakers are *structurally not competitive*

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1196423921958084608
- ...Because @Ford is already unprofitable...  [graph below]
BEFORE €Billions in EU Emissions Fines ...
- Unfortunately, as good-looking as the #MachE was, it will never be produced in any significant volume. @Ford can't afford it.
Mark my words.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2019, 03:57:42 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #917 on: November 19, 2019, 03:48:15 AM »
Ca.gov. has a good site to look through the energy mix.
https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_system_power.html
You can toggle through different years to compare how our energy has become much more dominated by renewables with the coal portion shrinking.
 I would be interested in seeing how the nighttime energy mix has changed. There have been thousands of acres of solar installed over the last decade. That and behind the meter power generation are great but if E.V. charging is predominantly nighttime low electric rate hours then the rather laudable energy mix the energy.ca.gov charts show are somewhat deceptive. Nighttime generation rather than daylight generation need a closer look. 
 I think my solar 5 kW is rather average. My income average. Maybe the powerwalls are early adaptor
but they will be average soon enough. What I pay for these energy upgrades is representative of Calif costs. I run a farm business with the same power that most residences use. That and well pumps make my useage atypical. But if I have to charge an EV I have to add solar and batteries, that or forgo farming .   My energy use pattern is built around daylight hours and solar generating hours.
 It isn’t just the low cost of the nighttime energy mix. What is the fossil fuel component of that mix?
EV might be greener if they charged in daylight hours but cheap energy rules, right ?
 




 

oren

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #918 on: November 19, 2019, 04:19:14 AM »
Actually looking at California, the best time to charge an EV according to systemic considerations is midday/afternoon, when solar is abundant (see "duck curve" below). I expect time-of-day pricing to reflect this sooner or later.
For those who are away from home but can't charge at the workplace during the week, midday charging during the weekend is probably the best solution, environment-wise and probably also cost-wise. Obviously, for this to be possible depends on vehicle range and driving patterns.
Nighttime generation includes hydro and wind so is not necessarily dirty, but I couldn't find stats for the generation mix based on the time of day.



https://cpowerenergymanagement.com/has-california-finally-solved-the-duck-curve/

TerryM

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #919 on: November 19, 2019, 08:54:28 AM »
I'm not sure that electricity produced in California is a useful metric. California has been importing an increasing percentage of grid energy for some time. Has the amount of electricity purchased by Californians been dropping? One of Gerontocrat's charts could clear that up - at least to my satisfaction.

If California were capable of generating all of the power she requires I've no doubt she'd be doing so. Instead she's buying more and more energy from economic competitors, even as EV's are taking an increasing share.
...
Can PG&E afford the many upgrades that electrified transportation will require?
Terry, usually I enjoy crossing posts with you, but now I am a bit frustrated. Did you happen to just skim through my post? I gave you just the chart you are now asking for, I also gave you a source to verify for yourself, and yet you still revert to your assumptions - that electricity demand has been trending up (it hasn't, quite the opposite) and that electricity imports have been trending up (they haven't - quite the opposite).

California saw a peak of total system generation (in-state plus imports) of 302,000 GWh in 2012, after the recovery from the Great Recession. Since then it was mostly downhill, and in 2018 came in at 285,000 GWh. In the meantime solar BTM in 2018 was estimated at 13,500 GWh, roughly similar to the missing system generation. In-state generation (excluding solar BTM) fluctuated around 200 GWh during the period, mostly dependent on changes in precipitation (=hydro power).

On the other hand, in 2012 California had 12,000 EVs, while in 2018 the number grew to 286,000 EVs (and 237,000 plug-in hybrids). According to your assumption electricity demand should have rapidly expanded. However, quite the opposite happened. Maybe EV owners compensated by installing solar behind the meter. But be that as it may, your scary scenarios are not playing out in real life.

Sources:
https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_system_power.html

I re-post the chart. Total system generation (yellow) is what you were looking for. Imports are the difference between Total system generation and in-state generation, with 2017 and then 2018 the lowest import years since 2010.

oren
The chart of Genotocrat's that I was referencing. My notes will follow.


« Last Edit: November 19, 2019, 09:32:38 AM by TerryM »

oren

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #920 on: November 19, 2019, 09:57:20 AM »
The chart I was referencing:
Indeed. It's the same data from the same source as my chart, and shows a trend of reduction in total California electricity grid supply (not counting behind-the-meter solar) since 2012 even while 280,000 EVs were added to the state. So are your assumptions finally laid to rest?

TerryM

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #921 on: November 19, 2019, 10:06:53 AM »
^^
Note the width of the blue strata (non coal imported electricity)
Note that without the highs of 2008 & 2012 electrical use has been ~flat since 2004
Note that Light Green & Beige have shrunk (Hydro & Geothermal)
Note that Black (Coal) includes imports as well as locally sourced coal generation


I read every word that's written in all of the below the line threads - not necessarily the links - I don't skim, but seldom respond.
I don't believe I've written that "electrical demand is trending up", if I did I was in error.
I don't believe that <300k vehicles, primarily in multi vehicle homes will make a notable difference to the huge California electrical system.


Electrical imports (the Blue Strata) appears to be widening (expanding) to my eye.
Nuke and Gas (Grey & Red) appear to have diminished since 2012 by roughly as much as Wind & Solar (Green & Yellow) are now producing.


The next decade of figures will be skewed as consumers struggle with blackouts. I don't see much that's positive looking at Gerontocrat's 2001-2018 data.


Stay Loose ;)
Terry

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #922 on: November 19, 2019, 10:25:26 AM »
Sorry for fiddling about instead of pushing SEND. My previous post was intended to complete my prior post. You may find that I've already answered some of your most recent questions. :)


My fears, unfortunately have not been "laid to rest".


Even if total usage never budged (which I can't imagine happening), the regions needing different amounts of power will have shifted adding huge expenses to a corporation that has filed for chapter 11 twice in 18 years, and has resorted to planned blackouts because it can't afford to maintain the infrastructure it has.

Terry

oren

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #923 on: November 19, 2019, 01:02:09 PM »
Honestly I think this is quite off-topic for the electric cars thread, but since it keeps popping up here are a few charts from the very detailed California Energy Demand 2018-2030 Updated Forecast document. The document drills down to local planning areas and hourly loads, and forecasts all manner of numbers related to California energy and economy. I think the charts for the coming decade show that the EV fears are much drummed up compared to the actual issue. There is barely any growth in grid load, and the little growth is spread over a long time and can be reasonably forecast in advance.

Note the difference between consumption and retail sales is self-generation, including residential and commercial solar PV, some wind turbines, self-storage, and fossil-powered CHP.

The EV scenarios are based on 2.6-3.9 million EVs by 2030 - about 10% of total light duty vehicles in the state. I expect the actual adoption rate to be higher, maybe much higher, but if true this will be apparent very soon, and will give enough time for planning. I expect the next revision of the document will again show an increased EV forecast. I also expect self-generation to be higher than forecast, thus negating a lot of the impact of higher EV adoption.
Quote
Light-Duty EVs
CED 2017 Revised incorporates a new light-duty EV forecast, developed by the TEFU in the fall of 2017. The EV forecast incorporates a new vehicle choice survey, completed in spring 2017, and includes projections of pure battery-electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) in both the residential and nonresidential sectors. Three scenarios were developed for CED 2017 Revised, with assumptions consistent with the three demand cases. The new forecasts reflect a more optimistic outlook for EVs by both staff and stakeholders, based on recent trends in California as well as commitments to widespread EV use around the world. This optimism was incorporated in the vehicle choice model through additional vehicle class offerings, higher projections for vehicle range, and a “taste” parameter that put EVs on par with conventional vehicles in terms of general acceptance. A detailed description of the EV forecasts is posted online.
Figure 21 shows projected statewide light-duty EV electricity consumption for the three CED 2017 Revised cases and the mid case from CEDU 2016. Consumption is higher in all three new cases compared to CEDU 2016 through 2027, with the new mid case about 3,300 GWh above CEDU 2016 in this year. Projected EV stock statewide in the CED 2017 Revised high, mid, and low cases reaches 3.9 million, 3.3 million, and 2.6 million vehicles, respectively, by 2030.
The state forecast for EVs was distributed to the electricity planning areas using Department of Motor Vehicle registration data at the zip code level and assuming current planning area shares for EV ownership remain constant over the forecast period. Electricity consumption was developed for each planning area by mapping county vehicle miles traveled per vehicle data from the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to the planning areas and applying these estimates to projected EV stock.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #924 on: November 19, 2019, 02:10:52 PM »
For a little perspective:  7 million new heat pumps were installed in the U.S. in 2015 — down from a peak of approximately 12 million added in 2005, before the housing crisis.  These energy hogs don’t have the luxury of time-shifting (most of) their load.  Yet the grid did not collapse under the added strain.  Some people just need to chill. ;) ;D


http://hpc2017.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/O.2.1.2-The-U.S.-Residential-Heat-Pump-Market-a-Decade-after-The-Crisis-and-Regional-Report-North-America.pdf
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TerryM

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #925 on: November 19, 2019, 02:12:32 PM »
oren
I think we'll continue to disagree.


The governors edict, should he remain in power after the next election, is going to skew the numbers higher. Probably much higher than forecasts made in 2017, which was just 2 years before PG&E again declared bankruptcy.


The reports from Tesla fans indicate that Tesla is eating the PHEV and Hybrid's share of the market. Great news for Tesla, but difficult for those making forecasts back in 2017 to have foreseen.


PG&E has buried itself in 34B$ of debt, and the interest on that debt wasn't a concern prior to the disastrous years of 2018 and this year. Borrowing Billion$ is reasonably uncomplicated and reasonably inexpensive when you can toss your profit and loss across the desk with a confident smile on your face.


The world changes when the papers have been filed & your profit/loss doesn't show any path back to profitable operations. The vultures begin to circle.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #926 on: November 19, 2019, 02:24:46 PM »
For a little perspective:  7 million new heat pumps were installed in the U.S. in 2015 — down from a peak of approximately 12 million added in 2005, before the housing crisis.  These energy hogs don’t have the luxury of time-shifting (most of) their load.  Yet the grid did not collapse under the added strain.  Some people just need to chill. ;) ;D


http://hpc2017.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/O.2.1.2-The-U.S.-Residential-Heat-Pump-Market-a-Decade-after-The-Crisis-and-Regional-Report-North-America.pdf


Heat pumps aren't much of a draw, and they're a seasonal draw limited to the time of year when electrical loads are at their nadir. They can't shift their load, but heaviest usage is already at night in the winter.


That's when some people just need to stop chilling. 8)
Terry

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #927 on: November 19, 2019, 02:33:46 PM »
For a little perspective:  7 million new heat pumps were installed in the U.S. in 2015 — down from a peak of approximately 12 million added in 2005, before the housing crisis.  These energy hogs don’t have the luxury of time-shifting (most of) their load.  Yet the grid did not collapse under the added strain.  Some people just need to chill. ;) ;D


http://hpc2017.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/O.2.1.2-The-U.S.-Residential-Heat-Pump-Market-a-Decade-after-The-Crisis-and-Regional-Report-North-America.pdf


Heat pumps aren't much of a draw, and they're a seasonal draw limited to the time of year when electrical loads are at their nadir. They can't shift their load, but heaviest usage is already at night in the winter.


That's when some people just need to stop chilling. 8)
Terry

It’s not just heat pumps. Utilities set new generation records when temperatures are very hot or very cold, and ask their customers to voluntarily cut back their use at those times.  If heating and cooling didn’t use much electricity, my electric bills wouldn’t double or triple when my (efficient) unit kicks in.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #928 on: November 19, 2019, 02:33:56 PM »
California (and elsewhere?)

So it is not an "EV problem" problem. i.e. 100% off-topic

It's a "PG&E have screwed up big-time" problem. Gave away the maintenance / system development money in dividends / share buybacks / management bonuses?  Sounds familiar?
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #929 on: November 19, 2019, 02:41:59 PM »
Back on topic!

Why Ford Is Calling Its New Electric Crossover a Mustang
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/11/18/why-ford-is-calling-its-new-electric-crossover-a-m.aspx
Because they want people to recognize the brand, instead of tryng to build a new one from scratch.


Nissan's Nightmare Isn't Over Yet
Quote
On Tuesday, Nissan (OTC: NSANY) posted its earnings on November 12, clearly showing that the nightmare that started with Ghosn's arrest is not nearly over. The Japan's second biggest automaker's shares were 19% down for the year, but its profits plunged way more than expected, 70% to be exact. The company is losing market share pretty much everywhere and is not showing any signs that an effective turnaround plan is in place.

Earnings
The revenue for the quarter dropped 6.6% in line with analyst expectations, amounting to $24 billion. But more importantly, Nissan decreased its sales forecasts for the fiscal year that ends in March 2020-, expecting sell 5.2 million car, which is 5.4% less than what it initially anticipated. Consequently, post-operating profit is expected to be less than previously estimated $2.1 billion for the year, the figure being slammed to $1.4 billion.
...
Volkswagen
Interestingly, just after the electric leader Tesla Inc. announced that they will enter Europe by building a plant in Germany, on Friday, the German giant announced it will spend even more money than previously planned ($66.3 billion) on building its electric future in the era of digitalization. Today, the company confirmed its full-year outlook but cut its medium-term targets, emphasizing that strict cost discipline is beyond necessary to achieve them.

Operating profit is expected is expected to grow at least 25%, down from the expected more than 30% in the 2016-2020 period with sales growth expected around 20% as opposed to previously estimated 25%. As a reminder, three plants in Germany are due to be entirely converted whereas plants in the US and China with either be partially or also fully transformed and all surely making their way to impact the company's bottom line. The company is pleased with the resilience it has shown in this increasingly difficult environment and hopes that the electric shift will help them to reach new and stricter CO2 emissions targets. ...
https://m.benzinga.com/article/14829416
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #930 on: November 19, 2019, 02:48:52 PM »
...
Note that without the highs of 2008 & 2012 electrical use has been ~flat since 2004
...
If 2012 is a 'high', you'd also have to remove the highs of 2006 and 2007, too.  But even then the chart would show a slight decline in recent years.  Removing 'anomalous' highs without any reason is probably 'cherry picking'.  [Blueberry Sal's bucket had three berries in it:  how many berries did she pick?]

California grid electricity use was apparently less in 2018 than in 2004 and 2005 (get rid of all those intervening 'high' years!), even with the EVs so far added (and population growth).  Please admit that, Terry!  This is not to say there cannot be other concerns about California's electricity future.
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TerryM

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #931 on: November 19, 2019, 03:01:54 PM »
California (and elsewhere?)

So it is not an "EV problem" problem. i.e. 100% off-topic

It's a "PG&E have screwed up big-time" problem. Gave away the maintenance / system development money in dividends / share buybacks / management bonuses?  Sounds familiar?


Damn it, the computer ate my reply. :-[


I'd posted a few days ago about other major utilities suffering from the same problems as PG&E, so it's more of a systemic problem rather than a PG&E problem.


The rapid rollout of EV's is simply tossing gasoline (or is it lithium) onto the fire, so something less than 100% off-topic.


It's 9:00 AM here and I need some sleep.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #932 on: November 19, 2019, 08:03:50 PM »
Let’s start with KiwiGriff’s calculation of 9.4 kWh/day needed for an EV. (References below.)

30.5 kWh/day is the average household use in the U.S.

30.5 + 9.4 kWh = 39.9 kWh, an increase of about 1/3 for a household (utility customer) with an EV (and that includes non-home charging).

As of October 2018, 1 million EVs have been sold in the U.S.

There are more than 126 million households in the U.S.

So perhaps 1% of households are increasing their power demands by about a third.
Now reduce those demands by the percentage of households adding solar.  (Residential solar is increasing right along with EV ownership.)

And I have a hard time imagining a crisis any time soon.


—- References:
...
Average mileage driven in the USA.
Quote
According to United States Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, Americans now drive an average of 13,476 miles per year. Nov 1, 2018
Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus - 253 Wh/mile(157 Wh/km) EPA
13476/ 365 = 37 miles per day. Miles driven times 253 Wh = 9.4 kWh

At only 3 hours direct sunlight daily  a 4 KW array would easily provide for the average users transport needs.

Quote
How much electricity does an American home use?
In 2018, the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential utility customer was 10,972 kilowatthours (kWh), an average of about 914 kWh per month. Tennessee had the highest annual electricity consumption at 15,394 kWh per residential customer, and Hawaii had the lowest at 6,213 kWh per residential customer.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=97&t=3
914 kWh/month / 30 days = 30.5 kWh/day average household use in the U.S.

Quote
Jul 26, 2019: The total number of households has doubled from about 63 million in 1970 to more than 126 million in 2017.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/183635/number-of-households-in-the-us/

Sometime in October 2018, a million electric vehicles will have been sold in the United States, according to the latest figures.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-u-s-has-1-million-electric-vehicles-but-does-it-matter/
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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #933 on: November 19, 2019, 10:01:54 PM »
And I have a hard time imagining a crisis any time soon.

In the US, perhaps not.  In other countries which have a ban on the sales of new FF vehicles from 2025/2030/2035 and 2040, we can expect that the volume of EV may very suddenly ramp up.  We can also expect that solar installations will not go hand in hand with paying an extra $10,000 for an EV of the same class as your old fossil burner.

I do take some issue with the figures.  General usage figures show Tesla's averaging out at around 3.5 miles per kw/h.  The Model 3 may be a bit better but none of them make the EPA figures in average day to day driving.  EPA is a best case of real world.  WLTP is lala land.  So why we use EPA when there is quite a lot of data out there is interesting.

As for the impact on the grid, annual figures don't tell the whole story.  We know that car drivers average 40 miles per day in the US.  That means they don't drive every day.  Which makes the figures worse because when they do, they drive more and charge more.

If we use 40 miles and assume 3.8 miles per kw/h we get a figure of 10.5KW per day.

This is more realistic to the more intense way people drive when not sitting at home and taking the weekend off.

In addition to this, you cannot expect home Solar to just keep growing in the same way without subsidies.  They will not be there forever and once gone it will tip the balance.

The UK developed a lively (or frenetic if you want to think of it that way), solar business when the subsidies were high.  When Cameron killed all the subsidies that market died and the companies along with it. Stone dead. We went from over half a gigawatt per year to 14MW per year of newly installed home solar.

So it is useful to be careful about predicting market moves.  Cameron and the UK government judged the UK solar market to be robust enough to stand on its own two feet and continue growing without government money.

Whoops!

On the range stuff, What Car did a test on a range of cars.  They gave the Model 3 SR 3.1 miles per KH/h, the P75D 2.4 and the eTron 2!  They called it Real World testing but failed to take into account the impact of the wipers in rain when testing the Model 3 LR.  So I have some doubts about their methods.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #934 on: November 20, 2019, 01:07:44 AM »
I use EPA as it is a fully documented, independently accessed and directly comparable metric that is closer to real world range than WLTP or NEDC.
I would not trust any car media as they have a long history of thumbs on scales to distort results towards their own preferences.
YMMV
Plenty of people claim to get EPA or better range out of the model 3.
Electric cars do better in typical stop start commuter traffic as they don't waste fuel at idle, have a flat efficiency curve and regenerate energy while slowing down.
 

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #935 on: November 20, 2019, 02:28:58 AM »
I was going to try to calculate a similar number for the UK (Average miles driven per day is 19.5, or about half the US number, and plug-in vehicles including hybrids add up to less than 1% of UK households) — but the consultancy group Element Energy has already done the math, for regular and stretch scenarios.  It’s from 2010, but their findings include:
Quote
• Additional average annual electricity demands from EVs do not exceed around 1.5% of total forecast electricity demands in 2020 in any of the scenarios considered in Britain or Ireland.
The maximum additional annual demand due to EVs occurs in 2030 under the Stretch scenario. Even in this case, with EVs representing three-quarters of the total car stock, the additional demands are less than 10% of forecast electricity demand for all end uses.
https://assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/electric_vehicles_research.pdf
Page 38

“Element Energy’s strengths include techno-economic forecasting and delivering strategic advice to clients on all opportunities connected to the low carbon economy.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #936 on: November 20, 2019, 04:38:37 AM »
EV Shocker:  huge auto manufacturers, with all their assets and experience, still encounter production delays.  Not just Tesla.  ::)

It Turns Out Porsche Taycan Deliveries Are Delayed
November 19, 2019
Quote
A recent post on the Facebook Porsche Taycan Group reveals that the Taycan is now running on an 8- to 10-week delivery delay. A Norwegian reservation holder received an email from the German automaker explaining the situation. ...
https://insideevs.com/news/383171/porsche-taycan-delivery-delay/
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TerryM

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #937 on: November 20, 2019, 10:21:12 AM »
Gerontocrat addressed EV power requirements and average household power draw in the US.
Residential electrical usage will ~ double if all private driving were by EV's. His spreadsheet was very well researched and remains unchallenged.
I had earlier used completely independent data sets and found that my figures were very close to Gerontocrat's. Well within a tight margin of error.


Those that were involved certainly remember the results, if not the details. They're not close to what's being proposed above. It's disingenuous to introduce conflicting figures without even referencing the prior, rather extensive debate.


I'll base my continuing research on Gerontocrat's findings until someone can demonstrate that the assumptions and/or mathematics were flawed. I'm not holding my breath.
 
It may be worth noting that neither E-buses nor battery powered commercial trucking were considered the last time this debate took place.
Terry


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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #938 on: November 20, 2019, 10:59:16 AM »
<snipped>

On the range stuff, What Car did a test on a range of cars.  They gave the Model 3 SR 3.1 miles per KH/h, the P75D 2.4 and the eTron 2!  They called it Real World testing but failed to take into account the impact of the wipers in rain when testing the Model 3 LR.  So I have some doubts about their methods.


More valid estimates would include the use of:


Night driving
A/C
Heaters
Defoggers
Low ambient temperatures
High ambient temperatures
Posted highway speeds + 15 Kpm
"Phantom Discharge" while parked
Pre-heating/Pre-Cooling
With/Without FSD engaged
With/Without passengers


and a number of other situations (such as your noted windshield wiper draw) that will skew the figures.
ICE vehicles don't suffer much from excess electrical draw or heating requirements during winter nights, EVs however have been reported as being far less efficient during the long and cold conditions faced in Canadian winters - as well as problems encountered with salty slush.
Terry

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #939 on: November 20, 2019, 03:56:14 PM »
I was going to try to calculate a similar number for the UK (Average miles driven per day is 19.5, or about half the US number, and plug-in vehicles including hybrids add up to less than 1% of UK households) — but the consultancy group Element Energy has already done the math,

I had a very quick scan Sig and there are some very large assumptions in there.

If you look at the table, it shows the demand will be some 76GW, NET.

The UK grid maxes out at about 49GW.

The article then goes on to say that this will not be a problem because all vehicles will not be charging at the same time and there is scheduling.

I have not had time to see if they have factored in the heat pump decision on home heating for new builds or not.

Also I have not had time to check what charge duration for what charge infrastructure they have assumed.

Over and above that, UK power consumption and corresponding capacity, has declined by some 100twh per year since 2005.  It is expected that this decline will continue.

It is not going to be very good if, in the depths of winter, with cars low on power from sitting in traffic for 2 hours with wipers and heating on, plug into 7kwh chargers and charge through peak hours and into the early hours of the morning.

You do not build power infrastructure for the massaged best case optimistic viewpoint.  You balance the worst case and a reasonable median case.  Otherwise you sit there with nobody going to work and half your power infrastructure on rolling blackout.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #940 on: November 20, 2019, 05:17:34 PM »
Anecdotal but real-world home-charging reports.  Electric bills do not double.

How much does Tesla add to electric bill? | Tesla Motors Club
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/how-much-does-tesla-add-to-electric-bill.36008/
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blumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #941 on: November 20, 2019, 07:11:48 PM »
Here you have your solution for policymakers: Subsidise EV, but also subsidize the solar panels.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #942 on: November 20, 2019, 07:39:40 PM »
Here you have your solution for policymakers: Subsidise EV, but also subsidize the solar panels.

Also, it would help if policymakers made the whole process easier for folks! 
Tesla lets you order an EV, solar and batteries with a few clicks, and they are working to get more municipalities to accept their generic electronic installation-proposal document, so permitting can take days rather than weeks.  More installers should be made able to do this.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #943 on: November 20, 2019, 07:42:21 PM »
Hint: it’s all about the charging cable.

Why did Porsche go to the trouble of designing an 800 V Taycan EV?
Quote
... However, with all other things equal, the heat energy generated in a conductor is related to its cross-section and the level of current. In the case of DCFC cables and connectors, they are already quite bulky and increasing the size (or cross-section) is not possible if everyday humans are expected to handle them practically. This is why we now see a lot of companies working on liquid-cooled charging cables and increasing the overall system voltage.

That may seem like convoluted logic for Porsche to consider when designing a new vehicle – after all, the car company doesn’t manufacture DC fast charging stations. Why would it care about those engineering problems?

Here’s another way to look at the history of higher-voltage EVs.
In the early days, EV fast charging was limited by the cells. They could only accept limited high-power charging at the ideal temperature, or it was unsafe.

However, slowly but surely, battery tech is improving. Cells can accept much higher charge rates at wider temperature ranges. Large battery packs maxed out at 50 kW, then 100 kW, then 150 kW, and higher rates are expected in the future that will exceed first-generation CHAdeMO and CCS maximum specs. So CHAdeMO and CCS developed next-gen specs, which went from about 500 V to 1,000 V max – to cram more power through the same size cable without increasing heat generation (because, again, you can’t make the cables any bigger, so you have to increase the voltage if you want more power: P=V*I).

So now, if Porsche or any other EV maker wanted to use these future ultra-fast charging stations, they would have to build EVs with higher pack voltages.

The Taycan’s 800 V pack doesn’t rely on any revolutionary battery tech. The cells are arranged in a sequence of series and parallel connections that increases the overall pack voltage. The same cells could be arranged in a 350 to 400 V pack sequence with the same overall pack capacity as the 800 V arrangement. …
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/why-did-porsche-go-to-the-trouble-of-designing-an-800-v-taycan-ev/
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sedziobs

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #944 on: November 20, 2019, 07:52:57 PM »
Anecdotal but real-world home-charging reports. 
I thought this was interesting, so I decided to make my own graph. I only have one year of data for solar and one for EV/PHEV, so it's not very smooth (August is an outlier because we were away from home).

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #945 on: November 20, 2019, 08:06:26 PM »
Also, it would help if policymakers made the whole process easier for folks! 
Tesla lets you order an EV, solar and batteries with a few clicks, and they are working to get more municipalities to accept their generic electronic installation-proposal document, so permitting can take days rather than weeks.  More installers should be made able to do this.

+1

Another idea would be to subsidize people more who make their charging port public.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #946 on: November 20, 2019, 08:26:33 PM »
Also, it would help if policymakers made the whole process easier for folks! 
Tesla lets you order an EV, solar and batteries with a few clicks, and they are working to get more municipalities to accept their generic electronic installation-proposal document, so permitting can take days rather than weeks.  More installers should be made able to do this.

+1

Another idea would be to subsidize people more who make their charging port public.

Good one!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #947 on: November 20, 2019, 08:37:30 PM »
Anecdotal but real-world home-charging reports. 
I thought this was interesting, so I decided to make my own graph. I only have one year of data for solar and one for EV/PHEV, so it's not very smooth (August is an outlier because we were away from home).

Looks horrible. ;) ;D  Kidding.  Looks great!

Thanks for the additional data-points, sedziobs.  Sometimes math is just... math.
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #948 on: November 20, 2019, 09:27:54 PM »
Sig, It is amazing how two different people can look at the same chart and see two different things. As per your graph post# 940. What I see is a house that in the winter is using 30kW plus another 10kW for their EV. All that power is coming from the grid and we know nothing about the energy mix renewable/ fossil fuel.  OK during summer their 6 kW panels are covering 30 kW of their 40 kW daily use ( EV + house ) . But they are still pulling 10 kW from the grid even under the best solar performance.
 Now if you compare to my current daily production in Nov., my 5 kW home solar is producing about 20 kWh per day and I am using almost zero grid energy for my home. Exactly 2 kWh for the month and not the 30 kWh of daily grid energy your #940 example is showing.
If I were to add an EV I would either have to add solar or use grid power. If I wanted the powerwalls to make EV nighttime charging actually renewable I would need to add at least one powerwall in addition to the extra solar.
 The thing that is bothering me about your continued insistence on showing examples of people charging their EV with grid power is that it isn’t 100% renewable because it largely is dependent on nighttime charging with grid energy.
 I am making a serious attempt at zero grid energy. If you don’t believe me when I say you need at
least three powerwalls and I think something close to a 10kW solar system to run an average home plus EV here in Calif. then please show me an example of someone doing better. With zero grid.
 Zero is where we are suppose to be going . Selling more cars, helping your stock portfolio , or just plain selling GreenBAU because it make people feel better about themselves is not in the planets best interest.
 What solar/battery/ EV costs and how well it performs year round is all tied together with electric cars and whether they will either increase or decrease future grid demands. None of this addresses food production but I guess we can just put that off to some later day.




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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #949 on: November 20, 2019, 09:38:01 PM »
Bruce, did you consider the implications of daytime charging of the EV? Either at home (during weekends or when possible), or at the workplace if one is commuting regularly, or in parking lots and street parking (where available, I bet will be more prevalent in the future).
Charging doesn't have to be at night, although night also sees lots of wind power.