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nanning

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1350 on: February 03, 2020, 11:19:17 AM »
Many questions:

Can everyone get an electric car?
What would building and driving 7.500.000.000 electric cars do to our biosphere? waste, resources, microplastics, child labour

Is the electric car a luxury private transport for the privileged 10%?

Green BAU is exacerbating inequality. I am unable to buy even an electric scooter/bicycle or solar panels. Do you have any idea how much money $1000 is?

Is the electric private luxury car a transport solution for all of humanity?
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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1351 on: February 03, 2020, 11:56:24 AM »
Well I'm sure that if you don't want to go EV, the incumbents will sell you a fossil burner. No problem with child labour, plenty of recycling options, waste is down significantly.  Microplastics are still an issue though.

Pity about the biosphere and the fact that the children won't have a future though.

Where there is demand there will be someone to fulfil it.

The goal is to do that with the minimum impact.

Also, as I have mentioned several times now, old EV batteries will become a growing source of storage.  By 2100, on the current trajectory, truly 100% renewables could be possible.  All paid for and delivered by those rich people who can afford an individual car.

Legislation to mandate the re use of EV batteries at scrappage, allied to mandatory vehicle power sharing, would do the rest.

Of course if you continue to try and drag us backwards, instead of leaping forwards, we will descend into war and strife.

Not my preferred option.
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oren

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1352 on: February 03, 2020, 12:31:58 PM »
Quote
What would building and driving 7.500.000.000 electric cars do to our biosphere?
The total number of fossil fuel powered cars driven on the road is 1.2B, IIRC. 80M are built and sold every year. What does that do to the biosphere? Are those cars "luxury" or not? Regardless, they are still driven. And built.
I can say with confidence that driving 1.2B EVs will harm the biosphere much less than driving these 1.2B ICE cars.
As for building them, I believe the harm to the environment is quite similar. Lithium is needed, but oil is not. Oil mining is very harmful (need I mention fracking?), also EVs last longer than ICE, so less need to be built. Ergo, better.
Note these are relative statements. EV is better than ICE. Not EV is perfect or EV solves all of humanity's problems.
As for affording e-bikes, I believe the state should supply those to anyone for free, and hope this will come to pass one day. But the damage done by these 1.2B ICE cars is too great to ignore, and speeches have failed to convince their owners to stop using cars. So.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2020, 04:53:35 PM by oren »

Buddy

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1353 on: February 03, 2020, 01:37:35 PM »
To repeat something I said a couple years ago:

The LAST “ICE only passenger car” sold in the US by a major manufacturer will be no later than 12-31-2025.  That is slightly less than six years from now.  When I stated that a couple years ago people thought I was on drugs (no ... I won’t share:). 

I did NOT include trucks in that .... but from the looks of things, they won’t be too far behind.  Not as far as I thought a couple years ago, certainly.

And while I am not quite as bullish as Tony Seba .... certainly he has the DIRECTION correct ... and many of the consequences as this effects many other industries:  Real estate, housing, city parking, oil and gas companies, lifestyle, etc.


« Last Edit: February 03, 2020, 05:06:35 PM by Buddy »
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TerryM

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1354 on: February 03, 2020, 04:45:32 PM »
I'd very much prefer that all of the subsidies presently spent on ICE & EV's were spent on bikes, E-Bikes, Free Buses & Free E-Buses.


I recognize that eliminating the automobile in all its forms won't bring us down to the GHG levels we need to reach by 2030 if we wan't a chance at a +1.50C world, but it would be a step in the right direction.


Continuing along these Plushly Lined Green BAU paths won't endear us in the eyes of Greta's peers. We'll be remembered as those that recognized what the future would bring, but decided not to make the serious changes that were required.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1355 on: February 03, 2020, 05:12:50 PM »
To repeat something I said a couple years ago:

The LAST “ICE only passenger car” sold in the US by a major manufacturer will be no later than 12-31-2025.  That is slightly less than six years from now.  When I stated that a couple years ago people thought I was in drugs (no ... I won’t share:). 

You are on drugs but at least it is the good stuff.

Total light vehicle sales in the U.S. in 2019 was 16,965,000. Of this 337,000 were BEV or PHEV sales. Only 16.6 million to go.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1356 on: February 03, 2020, 05:16:14 PM »
Many questions:

Can everyone get an electric car?
What would building and driving 7.500.000.000 electric cars do to our biosphere? waste, resources, microplastics, child labour

Is the electric car a luxury private transport for the privileged 10%?

Green BAU is exacerbating inequality. I am unable to buy even an electric scooter/bicycle or solar panels. Do you have any idea how much money $1000 is?

Is the electric private luxury car a transport solution for all of humanity?

First:  eliminating tailpipe emissions from cars has a much larger impact than eliminating their microplastics, and that improvement is taking place today:
Union of Concerned Scientists: Inequitable Exposure to Air Pollution From Vehicles in the Northeast & Mid-Atlantic U.S.
Quote
Opportunities to reduce harmful impacts of vehicle use

Electrification of vehicles


Electrifying both passenger and freight vehicles could greatly reduce emissions. Battery-electric vehicles in particular have no tailpipe emissions (there are minor amounts of PM2.5 emissions from tire and brake wear) and completely avoid emissions associated with refueling. Electricity generation can produce emissions, but these are lower than those produced by an average gasoline car and vary according to the charging location; furthermore, thanks to years of decarbonizing efforts, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic have greatly reduced emissions from electricity generation. Expansion of electric vehicle rebate programs should provide financing assistance and larger rebates to low- and moderate-income residents. Investments in electric buses should prioritize serving communities exposed to the highest levels of gasoline and diesel emissions.
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/22/union-of-concerned-scientists-inequitable-exposure-to-air-pollution-from-vehicles-in-the-northeast-mid-atlantic/

Second:  There is no need for everyone to get an electric car.  Over the next few years, autonomy and ridesharing will reduce the total number of cars needed, and subsequently the number produced.  You claim to be doing quite well without a car.  If that is true, quit griping that you can’t buy one.

Third:  The question of whether cars or EVs should exist or not is a topic for the “Cars” thread, remember?  If no one wants to debate it, over there, consider your question asked and answered. 
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1357 on: February 03, 2020, 05:22:55 PM »
Can everyone get an electric car?

Perhaps if your (rather rural) community provides one for you?

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/09/an-electric-car-club-for-camelford/

If you're of a certain age they could even provide a driver too:

https://www.facebook.com/AgeUKCornwall/photos/a.143971672393364/1865270090263505/
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Buddy

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1358 on: February 03, 2020, 06:26:38 PM »
Five years and eleven months and counting .... 😉😉

I have just enough drugs to last ...  :)
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blumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1359 on: February 03, 2020, 06:47:08 PM »
An ICE car in 5/6 years will have an insane depreciation compared with an EV. It's already so, extrapolate that into the future, buying an ICE car will be so damn uneconomic, only morons will do that still.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1360 on: February 03, 2020, 07:18:33 PM »
Question:  If, as Ark Invest projects, by 2024 EVs will be replacing ICE sales, and Tesla will have a 20% market share... who will be manufacturing the other 80%?
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 2/2/20, 2:41 PM
Ability change view in light of facts is a superpower, but I wish @CitronResearch could let us know which “other cars” will comprise the 82% non-Tesla market share in @ARKInvest forecast for 2024. Such “other cars” would need to be in development TODAY, & I don’t know of any
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1224055181249335296

VA: If possible, would @CathieDWood @TashaARK @skorusARK @wintonARK please provide a list of which autonomous EVs currently in production or development will comprise the 82% non-Tesla market share in 2024 before I short-circuit trying to figure it out?
< Market share should be higher no doubt. The big question mark is market size in my view. ~10% ev growth in 2019, will accelerate but question is how fast? Arks estimate of market size is quite high. A Global recession between now and 2024 will make it hard to reach. Your thought?
VA: In 2025, 80 percent of all new vehicles sold will be autonomous EVs.  In 2030, 80 percent of all miles will be traveled on autonomous EVs.
<< Thx. Total amount cars sold in 2019 was around 77 million. You don’t expect Tesla to sell >50 million cars in 2025, so you expect total amount will drop sharply regarding ICE vehicles. How many vehicles you expect to be sold 2025?
VA: IDK, ~20 million?

Tesla’s Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years
https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-price-target
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1361 on: February 03, 2020, 07:29:31 PM »
The depreciation on an ICE vehicle will be so much, they won’t do it.  It will be so economically stupid to do it .... that it won’t happen.  People will stop buying them.

In 3 - 5 years even someone from the US that didn’t know Kansas City was in Missouri, will probably not buy an ICE vehicle. 😱😱

Humans are slow to adapt, until their pocket book screams at them.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1362 on: February 03, 2020, 07:47:28 PM »
The depreciation on an ICE vehicle will be so much, they won’t do it.  It will be so economically stupid to do it .... that it won’t happen.  People will stop buying them.

In 3 - 5 years even someone from the US that didn’t know Kansas City was in Missouri, will probably not buy an ICE vehicle. 😱😱

Humans are slow to adapt, until their pocket book screams at them.

I have always bought new cars and driven them into the ground. Depreciation or trade in value does not factor into my decision. What does?

Purchase Price
Reliability
Cost of Operation
Availability
MPG

...perhaps others...would have to give this more thought...

blumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1363 on: February 03, 2020, 07:48:36 PM »
Question:  If, as Ark Invest projects, by 2024 EVs will be replacing ICE sales, and Tesla will have a 20% market share... who will be manufacturing the other 80%?

I guess that would be non model 3/S/X Teslas then.

As in Cybertruck and the Tesla models coming out until 2024. Hope there are plenty. I hope there will be a Smart car like Tesla until then as well.
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Elijah McClain

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1364 on: February 03, 2020, 08:08:17 PM »
Question:  If, as Ark Invest projects, by 2024 EVs will be replacing ICE sales, and Tesla will have a 20% market share... who will be manufacturing the other 80%?

I guess that would be non model 3/S/X Teslas then.

As in Cybertruck and the Tesla models coming out until 2024. Hope there are plenty. I hope there will be a Smart car like Tesla until then as well.
perhaps ArkInvest's grasp of arithmetic is not as good a it could be ?

US Auto sales 2019 17.1 million (and that is low)

20% of 17 million is 3.4 million.
Musk reckons 2020 US EV sales 0.35 million ? (Total 0.5 + a bit less Europe & China)
Compound growth rate per annum required for 3.4 million in 2024 - circa 55%.
 = GIGA 5 to GIGA 10 to be built in 3 years?

World Auto sales 2019 77.5 million (and that is low)

20% of 17 million is 15.5 million.
Musk reckons 2020 EV sales O,5 million +  a bit, say 0.55 million.
Compound growth rate per annum required for 15.5 million in 2024 - circa 95%.
= GIGA 5 to GIGA 30 to be built in 3 years?

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« Last Edit: February 03, 2020, 08:30:19 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1365 on: February 03, 2020, 08:39:13 PM »
I have always bought new cars and driven them into the ground. Depreciation or trade in value does not factor into my decision. What does?

Purchase Price
Reliability
Cost of Operation
Availability
MPG
...perhaps others...would have to give this more thought...
I think one of the drivers will be a continuous restriction and cost for where you can drive an ICE car.

More and more places are banning or restricting polluting cars from town centres.  Something like an EV only lane in motorways would really spread up to the transition.

Would you start to reconsider your current car if you are no longer able to make the same journeys?

rboyd

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1366 on: February 03, 2020, 08:47:39 PM »
Exponential growth extrapolations always look great, but get beaten down by the sheer scale of new additions required to keep the growth rate up as the base gets bigger. We have seen this with wind and solar, where the "hot" nation goes through rapid growth from a low base and then the growth rate falls rapidly. Journalists have tended to jump to another "hot" market (it was Germany, now its China, now its not!). Government policies also change as the cost of subsidies grows exponentially to the point where they get cut (as in China last year). The major solar and wind manufacturing associations see a continued deceleration in solar and steady under 10% growth in wind.Then there are all the required grid changes as solar and wind go to higher shares of generation.

Same with EVs, which are still at a very low market share (2% in the US, 4% in Europe, 6% in China) and sales fell in 2019 in the US and China. The non-extension of Federal purchase subsidies will be a drag in the US in 2020. China plans for 20% EVs in 2025, which will be a significant accomplishment. Truly self driving cars are suffering from the usual real-world messiness and software development complexities, the hype around them has rapidly dropped reflecting reality.

The other variable is oil prices. If EVs take off and cut global oil demand, the price of oil will crash and cause a speed-bump to the adoption of EVs, unless countervailing taxes are put in place. I still remember C$0.30 per litre gas in the 1990s when oil hit US$10/barrel, anything like that would give a short-term lease of life to the ICE.

So I see more toward 2030 as the cross-over point, although the other possibility is that people just keep driving their current cars, which will have mostly been depreciated already, while they wait to see what is going to happen with ICE vs. EV. I personally will keep driving my low-mileage 2014 BMW until at least then. I did tell my friend's daughter not to train as a car mechanic, given the probable collapse of that occupation in the 2030s. Another thought is that rapid technological advancements will actually destroy the resale value of old EVs for a while, until things stabilize at the top of the technological "S" curve. The difference between lets say a new Model S and a five-year old one may be so great (leaving out possible production quality issues) that the depreciation becomes quite rapid. Such volatility and inability to forecast could only help people decide to keep their current vehicles until the market becomes clearer and more stable - a nightmare for the car manufacturers.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2020, 08:55:25 PM by rboyd »

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1367 on: February 03, 2020, 10:38:35 PM »
...
perhaps ArkInvest's grasp of arithmetic is not as good a it could be ?

Or perhaps their research is deeper than yours?

Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years
https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-price-target
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1368 on: February 04, 2020, 03:05:19 AM »
Quote
David of Breizh (@breizh_72) 2/3/20, 1:28 AM
Big battery plants in Europe planned for 2025.
But it’s a long time from now, 2025...
https://twitter.com/breizh_72/status/1224217994244521984
Image below.

< Yes, a very positive development.  However, if it's anything like what happened in the cellphone industry, 5-years could be a lifetime...literally!   Driven by a relentless Tesla, the whole BEV landscape could look completely different by then...

Titles:
“Announced production capacities for battery cells (GWh / a) in Europe 2020 - 2030
Note: other smaller cell manufacturers total approx. 4 GWh / a. 
Source: Fraunhofer ISI, own illustration, as of January 2020”
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1369 on: February 04, 2020, 08:41:40 AM »
New petrol and diesel vehicles sales ban in UK brought forward from 2040 to 2035.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51366123


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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1370 on: February 04, 2020, 08:55:43 AM »
New petrol and diesel vehicles sales ban in UK brought forward from 2040 to 2035.

"...or earlier, if possible."

It only applies to cars and vans, not large trucks.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1371 on: February 04, 2020, 11:44:05 AM »
And Scotland was already 2032.  This brings England, Wales and Northern Ireland more in line with Scotland.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1372 on: February 04, 2020, 01:30:07 PM »
In almost 3 years from now ... say 12-31-22 .... the death of the ICE passenger car will be too obvious, probably like the death of black and white TV.

If someone KNOWS there won’t be a market to sell their used ICE car in 3 - 5 years, most people will take that into consideration.

The other issue is this:  It is more expensive for car manufacturers to BUILD two types of cars (EV and ICE).  Volkswagen has already talked about this publicly.  EV only manufacturers like Tesla have a decided advantage right now.  In a few years .... you will see car manufacturers speed up theirs transition.  Some are already doing so.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1373 on: February 04, 2020, 03:25:04 PM »
New petrol and diesel vehicles sales ban in UK brought forward from 2040 to 2035.

"...or earlier, if possible."

It only applies to cars and vans, not large trucks.

Perhaps because the technology, production, and affordability is fairly certain in the near term for cars and vans, whereas large electric trucks are still in their infancy/ testing stage.  As viable electric trucks come to market in the next year or two, switching will be a financial draw, as well as a political decree.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1374 on: February 04, 2020, 03:37:43 PM »
Currently the ICE manufacturing capacity of the world is around 80m vehicles a year.

To replace the >1.4bn vehicles on the road today, at those rates, would take two decades (factoring in continued growth), if we could manufacture 80m electric vehicles per year today.

To assume that ICE vehicles will suddenly die in 2 or even 5 years is hope and nothing more.  Production capacity of EV will need to hit at least 20m per year before we can assume it is a given in a short time frame.

We might see some spectacular failures in the meantime.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1375 on: February 04, 2020, 03:49:53 PM »
The “replacement” of ICE vehicles is VERY DIFFERENT from the end of sales of NEW ICE vehicles.

It will take quite a while to cycle through all the ICE vehicles on the planet, or just in the US.

Also .... vehicle sales are likely to drop.  More and more people are forgoing a second (or third) car ... and more people are forgoing cars altogether. 

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1376 on: February 04, 2020, 03:54:40 PM »
Still, 80m production today and demand is rising.  2m capacity of new EV with nothing over 5m likely before 2023.

In that case virtually every car manufacturer goes bust by 2025.

That is not a feasible scenario.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1377 on: February 04, 2020, 04:01:53 PM »
Currently the ICE manufacturing capacity of the world is around 80m vehicles a year.

To replace the >1.4bn vehicles on the road today, at those rates, would take two decades (factoring in continued growth), if we could manufacture 80m electric vehicles per year today.

To assume that ICE vehicles will suddenly die in 2 or even 5 years is hope and nothing more.  Production capacity of EV will need to hit at least 20m per year before we can assume it is a given in a short time frame.

We might see some spectacular failures in the meantime.

EVs will not replace ICE vehicles one-to-one!  Far fewer vehicles will be needed in the future, due to car sharing, ride sharing, and robo-taxis.  ICE vehicle production will plummet just like dumb cell phones and videotapes  — no one will want to buy the old tech.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1378 on: February 04, 2020, 04:05:13 PM »
Again .... at least as far as what I am saying:

1). US ... not global
2). Passenger cars .... not including any trucks
3). “ICE only” passenger cars (does not include hybrid)
4). There are almost 6 years left till 12-31-2025

The real “thrust” in EV’s .... as well as an “ICE strike” (people not buying an ICE vehicle because they want their NEXT vehicle to be an EV ... won’t be for another 2 or 3 years ... but that mindset has already started.


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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1379 on: February 04, 2020, 05:04:08 PM »
Far fewer vehicles will be needed in the future, due to car sharing, ride sharing, and robo-taxis.

Not convinced with this one, Sig.

A recently conducted study in Berlin found no reduction of cars in the city after there was car-sharing offered. And i've never seen a positive study on the topic. (sadly)
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1380 on: February 04, 2020, 05:24:26 PM »
Far fewer vehicles will be needed in the future, due to car sharing, ride sharing, and robo-taxis.

Not convinced with this one, Sig.

A recently conducted study in Berlin found no reduction of cars in the city after there was car-sharing offered. And i've never seen a positive study on the topic. (sadly)

I dare say Berlin’s set-up was a far cry from a fully autonomous, order on your phone and a car arrives in minutes, for less than half the price of an Uber/Lyft ride scenario which would be the case under a successful robotaxi rollout.

The tens of thousands of Model 3s coming off lease and returning to Tesla in a couple years can be put to work as large fleets in cities like Berlin for an always-available, ubiquitous, cheap service, making car ownership seem cumbersome in comparison.

“Initially, Tesla could set rates comparable to the $2.50 per mile that Uber and Lyft charge today, dropping them to $1 per mile in 2023.”
- Ark Invest
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blumenkraft

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1381 on: February 04, 2020, 05:31:53 PM »
You are not wrong, Sig. I stay skeptical though. When FSD will be ready, i might change my mind. ;)
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1382 on: February 04, 2020, 06:33:12 PM »
5 years or 6 years is irrelevant. ICE cars are 40 times the capacity of EV today and will probably be at least 8 times EV in 2026.  If not 10 times.

Are we going to see vehicle demand drop by 90%?  Is that a realistic expectation?

Will EV production reach 40m by 2026?  Is a 50% drop in vehicle demand a reasonable expectation?

Might be worth checking Norway for that as they see to be the most advanced with EV sales.

If we can answer those questions with a realistic yes, then it is worth discussing.

But it has to be realistic.
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nanning

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1383 on: February 04, 2020, 07:44:54 PM »
Sig, would you give up your private car for a shared car? I mean where you don't know the other passengers.

In my observation it is precisely the private part of car travel that's the reason why people, I presume like you, won't ditch their car.
Do you perhaps think that there will be a 'leisure class' (that you'll belong to) that can have private cars whilst the rest have to share their travel space?
Do you think the following observation is correct?:
Almost all of the 10% richest people don't want to share -anything- with people who have almost nothing. They know where the poor people are.
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oren

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1384 on: February 04, 2020, 08:04:59 PM »
Sorry nanning but you are wrong in this. The biggest reason for private car transport is time spent in transit. The second reason is marginal cost of each trip.
Fear/loathing of strangers? Pah. Maybe for some people, not for the majority.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1385 on: February 04, 2020, 08:52:08 PM »
Ah, I should explain that a "truck", aka lorry, Heavy Goods Vehicle, in the UK is typically 7.5 to 40 Tonnes laden.

I don't mean a pickup truck

They have a high utilisation, so for those, I foresee replaceable battery packs loaded on by forklift at each loading / dropoff depot, or hydrogen, as an energy store.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1386 on: February 04, 2020, 10:34:57 PM »
nanning,

Your belief that “only rich people snobs have EVs” is simply wrong.  I’m still looking for polls I’ve seen which asked how many people would put their car on the Tesla network. A significant percentage said Yes.

Why?  As Musk said long ago, one could make enough money on the network to cover your car ownership costs — lease payments, insurance, etc. included.  Many people rent out their cars on Turo today for that purpose.  Many cybertruck reservationists said robotaxi capability made the decision a no-brainer for them.

At the Autonomy Day presentation, Musk said you could make $30,000 a year using your car as a robotaxi.  The average car is in use only 5% of the time.  Most of the other 95%, it could be earning you income.

A Forbes writer did his own calculations:
“Using my numbers, and a more modest 40,000 miles per year (so you don't give up your car all the time) I predict a profit of around $17,000 per year if you can pull that off.”

Tesla Promises Incredible Numbers For "Tesla Network" Robotaxi Service
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2019/04/23/tesla-promises-incredible-numbers-for-tesla-network-robotaxi-service/#57d8c9321a0b

As I wrote above, huge numbers of Model 3s coming back from lease will be owned by Tesla expressly for their network.  (Model 3 leases require the give-back.)  There will be many cars available for the network that are not privately owned.  And fleet businesses will also spring up, although Musk has said existing ride-share companies may not use the Tesla Network.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2020, 10:45:44 PM by Sigmetnow »
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TerryM

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1387 on: February 04, 2020, 10:46:01 PM »
Sorry nanning but you are wrong in this. The biggest reason for private car transport is time spent in transit. The second reason is marginal cost of each trip.
Fear/loathing of strangers? Pah. Maybe for some people, not for the majority.
Perhaps where you're located this is true.
In the Excited States, and many other nations that have "visible minorities" as an underclass, avoiding the possibility of sitting beside one of "them" is worth almost any price or personal discomfort.
If the "marginal cost" was in fact lower, wouldn't you expect those with marginal employment to be driving more & leaving bus travel to the leisure class, who by definition have more time to spare? ::)
Terry

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1388 on: February 04, 2020, 11:00:04 PM »
Sig
Quoting The Elon to back up his own assertations is almost the definition of circular reasoning.


If we were to believe The Elon, GF1 would have been providing power to Nevada's grid - last year!
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1389 on: February 04, 2020, 11:41:55 PM »
In the Excited States, and many other nations that have "visible minorities" as an underclass, avoiding the possibility of sitting beside one of "them" is worth almost any price or personal discomfort.

I don't think you need to go to the step of sorting by class. In much of the US outside of city centers, people don't want to share their property with anyone. Even poor communities will often be littered with giant pickup trucks. Property fences are common in both rich and poor neighborhoods. We're obsessed with private property in the US. The culture is very different than in Europe. The acceptance of shared transportation has more to do with the urban/rural divide than the rich/poor divide in my opinion.

Nanning, have you ever been to rural America? I have plenty of friends who are poor by choice just as you are. Their views are very different from yours. Individualism and self determination is embedded in the cultural ethos. They take pride in what they own, even if it isn't much. They want no part in any kind of compulsory community action. They are happy with their truck and their gun. Shared transport is just as unappealing to them as it would be for a rich person.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1390 on: February 05, 2020, 06:40:27 AM »
A bit off-topic, sorry.

Thank you Terry for the information and having a critical mind  :-*.

I think that the more you have and are accustomed to large wealth, the more difficult it is to change your ways in this material-wealth status world. Very rich people (or 'snobs' as Sig calls them) don't ever want to go back, to have less, because it is perceived as failure.
Therefore I have much respect for people who change their ways and turn their ship around (without media attention). Especially the very rich.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1391 on: February 05, 2020, 04:12:24 PM »
...
I think that the more you have and are accustomed to large wealth, the more difficult it is to change your ways in this material-wealth status world. Very rich people (or 'snobs' as Sig calls them) don't ever want to go back, to have less, because it is perceived as failure.
Therefore I have much respect for people who change their ways and turn their ship around (without media attention). Especially the very rich.

Yet you, who claim you “chose to be poor,” continually whine about not being able to afford material things that you think might make your life better.  Your “choice” clearly hasn’t eliminated massive jealously for people who have more than you!

Early adopters are the few who accept that they will pay a high price for new tech — which then makes mass production make it less expensive for others, who now see it within reach and worth the effort to strive for.  New tech does not magically appear because someone sat on a bench and “thought about it.”  It takes money, hard work, and customers willing to pay for something new and untested (*cough*  Taycan  *cough*) even as others, who can’t see the potential, scoff at the attempt.

And if that investment succeeds — and most don’t — eventually, taxes paid by others may make those new and better things available even to the choose-to-be-poor like yourself.  Even those who scoffed. 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1392 on: February 05, 2020, 04:34:32 PM »
Amazon reveals design of its Rivian-powered electric delivery van
https://www.teslarati.com/amazon-prime-electric-delivery-van-by-rivian/

——
Ford reports $1.7 billion quarterly loss
Quote
Ford Motor Co. shares fell as much as 11% in the extended session Tuesday after the U.S. auto maker missed adjusted profit expectations and posted a GAAP loss for its fourth quarter.

Ford F, +2.23%  said it lost $1.7 billion, or 42 cents a share, in the quarter, compared with a loss of $100 million, or 3 cents a share, in the year-ago period. The GAAP loss included a previously disclosed $2.2 billion charge related to pensions.  Adjusted for one-time items, Ford said it gained 12 cents a share, compared with 30 cents a share a year ago. Revenue fell 5% to $39.7 billion from $41.8 billion a year ago.
...
”Financially, the company’s 2019 performance was short of our original expectations, mostly because our operational execution — which we usually do very well — wasn’t nearly good enough. We recognize, take accountability for and have made changes because of this,” Chief Executive Jim Hackett said in a statement.
...
For the first quarter, Ford said it expects adjusted earnings to be down more than $1.1 billion from the first quarter of 2019 thanks to higher warranty costs, an ongoing issue for the company, lower vehicle volumes plus the lower results from Ford Credit and the higher driverless-car investments.

Earlier Tuesday, Tesla Inc. TSLA, +13.73%   surpassed Ford as No. 1 U.S. car maker in terms of enterprise value, a metric that takes into consideration market capitalization as well as debt, cash and cash equivalents. Tesla reported fourth-quarter earnings last week.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ford-reports-17-billion-quarterly-loss-2020-02-04
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1393 on: February 05, 2020, 05:19:44 PM »
Over the next 5+ years it’s going to be a bloodbath in the automotive space.  Most will NOT survive.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1394 on: February 05, 2020, 05:24:35 PM »
Re: Three posts upthread
Please allow me some clearing up.


I'm sorry Sig, but this:

Quote from: Sigmetnow
continually whine about not being able to afford material things that you think might make your life better

Is wrong. Please try to find som text where I've said anything that might inspire the above quote?
please note: When I write that I can't buy an electric car or whatever, don't interpret that as "I really want an electric car". I represent the poor people in such statements. To widen the context to all people. Solutions inclusive of all humans. A vision of the future. I understand that your idea of a good future is different.

Quote from: Sigmetnow
Your “choice” clearly hasn’t eliminated massive jealously for people who have more than you!

I think you mean "resulted in"  in stead of "eliminated". Correct? Otherwise you mean that some are massively jealous of my 'choice'.
If you think jealousy is a good thing... Hm.

From your choice of words (griping, whining) I presume that you feel personally attacked/insulted. Why is that?

Please include the Africans in your meaning of the 'poor'. Your Tesla is a Rolls Royce to us. You show very privileged behaviour in my opinion and try to transform it into a green BAU future 'solution' for 'everyone'. That is: 'I don't want to radically change'-leisure-class-behaviour.
And, dare i say it, you likely don't care so much about what happens to others far away.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1395 on: February 05, 2020, 05:32:17 PM »
Quote
To widen the context to all people. Solutions inclusive of all humans. A vision of the future.
No such critter. Different strokes for different folks. What works for one does not work for all.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1396 on: February 05, 2020, 06:03:30 PM »
Quote
Quote from: Sigmetnow
Quote
Your “choice” clearly hasn’t eliminated massive jealously for people who have more than you!

I think you mean "resulted in"  in stead of "eliminated". Correct? Otherwise you mean that some are massively jealous of my 'choice'.

No, I mean you are jealous of people who have more than you do, even though you “choose” to have less.  Instead of saying “but what’s in it for me (and poor people)?!” try spending your “thinking time” considering a more innovative future.

You complain about those who can afford more, even though they are the ones making it possible for you, and all the less-well-off, to have more in the years ahead.  Maybe the poor will get access to an EV.  Maybe they get a low-cost solar and battery system because new tech and mass production have made it affordable. 

Nothing would improve if we all sat around waiting for a magical handout!  Those spending money today on what you say are unneeded luxuries are in fact the first iteration of an improvement to the futures of thousands of lives less “rich” than they are.  Maybe some day you’ll see that.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2020, 06:17:06 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1397 on: February 05, 2020, 06:06:36 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

sedziobs

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1398 on: February 05, 2020, 06:29:12 PM »
Please include the Africans in your meaning of the 'poor'. Your Tesla is a Rolls Royce to us. You show very privileged behaviour in my opinion and try to transform it into a green BAU future 'solution' for 'everyone'. That is: 'I don't want to radically change'-leisure-class-behaviour.
And, dare i say it, you likely don't care so much about what happens to others far away.
Well, if we're defining "poor" according to world standards, then I would strongly disagree that you choose to be poor. You choose to enjoy benefits of a developed nation and economy that much of the world does not have access to. If you really chose to be poor, you would refuse your country's welfare programs. And since part of your choice is one to not work, I would also say you are voluntarily part of a leisure class by world standards. That you spend significant time discussing such things on the internet is evidence of that.

This is not meant to diminish your choices, which I think are admirable. I appreciate having your perspective in these discussions. But please do not make the mistake that you represent the views of all poor people, or that those who choose to consume more than you do not care about poor people. We can all share our individual ideas here without resorting to shaming or magical thinking about societal attitudes.

gerontocrat

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1399 on: February 05, 2020, 08:04:05 PM »
UK Jan 20 Auto sales. The UK public have taken advantage of Brexit allowing the UK to "unleash its potential" by not buying cars - again.

Except for pure EV's and the "neither fish nor fowl" hybrids.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/
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