Electric cars

[Sigmetnow]

Taxes can make imported cars in Australia about twice the price of elsewhere, which makes this feat even more impressive.   I don’t think the government’s coal stance is much of a factor.  These folks really want to drive electric.

Tesla Commands 70% of Australia's EV Market Despite Government's Pro-Coal Stance
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-70-australia-pure-ev-market

[Sigmetnow]

Data images at the link.

JPR007 (@jpr007) 2/5/20, 5:34 PM
GENERAL MOTORS - 2019 FULL YEAR FINANCIALS
Quick look
- Unit sales fall -8% from 8.386 million units to 7.718 million units
https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1225185976865001472

INCOME STATEMENT
- Revenues shrink -6.7% from $147.0 billion to $137.2 billion
- Net Income declines from $8.0 billion to $6.7 billion

GM GROSS MARGIN
GM’s Automotive Gross Margin is only 9.8% of Automotive Revenues
- compare with Tesla’s more robust Automotive Gross Margin of 21.2% for 2019

NOTE
1. GM captures less than half of the Revenues from Retail Sales of its vehicles - Tesla captures 100% of the Revenues
2. GM only earns 10% Gross Margin on the half of Automotive Revenue that it captures - Tesla currently captures 21.2% and we can expect 25% in the future

—> Tesla has a 4-5x better business model and business structure than GM, even before considering any product advantages or technology advantages
- $1,000,000 of retail sales is worth $210,000~250,000 to Tesla
- $1,000,000 of retail sales is worth only $50,000 to GM

Here is the state of play for the ICE industry [First Image below.]

Which means they are down big time from where they should be [Second image below.]

And ICE is not going to be coming back  [Third image below.]

James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) 2/5/20, 5:47 PM
$GM global market share:
2017: 10.2%
2018: 8.9%
2019: 8.5%
Source: GM
#DemandCliff  #GrowthStoryIsOver
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1225189341401681921

[rboyd]

Looks lie some big jumps in EV sales in January in Europe

Seems to be partly the automakers holding back EV stock so that they get counted against the new CO2 emissions targets that start in 2020. A bit of gaming the system.

Not good news for the lagging German manufacturers in January:

Winter In Germany: Fossil Vehicle Sales Slide 15% As EV Market Share Increases From 2.5% To 6.5%

Europe’s largest auto market, Germany, saw January fossil fuel vehicle sales drop by over 15% year-on-year, with gasoline vehicles alone down over 17%. Meanwhile, EVs increased their market share to 6.5% from 2.5%. Europe’s big five markets are now at a combined 6.0% EV market share.

As I mentioned when discussing France’s breakout January EV market share of 11%, there are good reasons for this 2020 surge of EVs across Europe. Germany’s big jump from 2.5% a year ago to 6.5% this year was partly due to manufacturers stockpiling EVs late last year to be able to make a big push to meet the stricter EU fleet emissions requirements of 2020.

Big changes in France in January (half of pure electric sales were the Renault Zoe, 1/4 the Peugout e-208):

Fossil Vehicle Sales In France Crash By 25% As EVs Quadruple To 11% Market Share

France, the world’s 8th largest auto market, just hit 11% electric vehicle market share in January, a year-on-year growth of 4×. Meanwhile, diesel and gasoline vehicle sales crashed by ~25% year on year.

The massive year-on-year market share jump from January 2019’s 2.7% to 11% was boosted by manufacturers releasing EV stock that had deliberately been held back in late 2019. Manufacturers need to push hard for EV sales now that we’re into 2020, in order to meet the new European CO2 emissions targets that start this year.

Whilst the 11% figure thus partly represents a spring-back effect from recent suppression, it’s also likely that France’s full year 2020 EV market share will achieve at least 5% overall (from 2019’s full year figure of 2.8%). Whether 10% or higher can be sustained over the coming months, we will have to wait to see.

Other Parts of Europe:

Other European Markets

We are currently waiting on January new vehicle registration data from the two other largest European markets, Germany and the UK. The next biggest markets, Italy (2.1% EV market share) and Spain (4% share) have both seen January market share more than double over their full year 2019 figures, albeit from a lower base.

Meanwhile, Sweden has seen January EV market share increase by 2.5× year on year to over 30%, and Norway has just had its strongest January ever with 64% market share (more details coming tonight). Another standout performer is Portugal, which has seen January 2020’s EV market share almost double 2019’s full-year 5.7% share to 11% share. Finally, the Netherlands, despite the pull-forward effects of a tax cliff in late 2019, has already demonstrated a respectable 7.2% EV market share in January.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/06/winter-in-germany-fossil-vehicle-sales-slide-15-as-ev-market-share-increases-from-2-5-to-6-5/

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/05/fossil-vehicle-sales-in-france-crash-by-25-as-evs-quadruple-to-11-market-share/

[TerryM]

^^
With 3/4 of the EV sales in France, Renault may be poised for a bumper year.
The Coronavirus situation is liable to slew the statistics for at least the 1st two quarters, so it may be awhile before a clear picture emerges.


Terry

[NeilT]

They will have to grow some capacity first.  In 2019 they moved their manufacturing from France to Slovenia and grew it from 60,000 per year to 100,000 per year.

This is like the statements that the etron, iPace and Taycan would kill Tesla.

Put all 3 together and it makes less than 1 year of 2020 Tesla manufacturing.  By the time the incumbents look like catching up, Giga Berlin will be on stream and beating them again.

Assuming that current EU sales mean that the incumbents can bring Tesla down is another bit of narrow thinking.  They are just not producing the vehicles.

The ID.3 has the best chance on volume, but they need to get it working first....

[kassy]

Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf reported on a lack of chargers due to the increase in electric cars in the Netherlands.

Basically we need 120 new chargers per day to keep up with the current sales of EVs.
We run at 23 per day.

Lease company ALD has 71700 cars in total, one fifth of new leases last year were EVs.
Assuming 5 years for lesses that would be 14,3k new cars so 2,3k EVs for them last year.

Best scoring city is The Hague covering 80% of charging points needed.

They expect car sharing to become a thing since the amount of parking spaces in newly build neighbourhoods is much lower then it used to be (because we are just running out of space).

[rboyd]

The e-208 is a Peugeot, not a Renault (fixed it in my post above). Looks like a pretty good car. A super-mini, so not really a competitor for the Tesla.

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/motors/reviews/2019/10/11/first-drive-the-peugeot-e-208-makes-a-compelling-case-for-going-all-electric/

[NeilT]

Digging through the articles gives a vehicle with a 50kw/h battery, requires a 3phase power outlet at home for 11kw charging, has a minimum range of around 135 miles and costs around £30,000 for the base model.

No figures for the actual manufacturing but it is being manufactured at a factory with a max capacity of 350kpy and is one of a range of vehicles being produced including FF vehicles.

They expect to be supply constrained.

In short, if you can finance the extra buy a Tesla and I buy PSA vehicles...

[rboyd]

But it has that French je-ne-sais-quoi!

[pikaia]

I had a Peugeot once, and it was absolutely terrible! I would never buy another.

[blumenkraft]

BTW:

ICE vehicles lose almost as much efficiency as EVs in the winter

Link >> https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/coldweather.shtml

[NeilT]

But it has that French je-ne-sais-quoi!

Yep "I don't know what" anyone would want buy one for either... 

[Sigmetnow]

BTW:

ICE vehicles lose almost as much efficiency as EVs in the winter

Link >> https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/coldweather.shtml

Thanks for the link.  This may be one of those things that we’ve had to live with for so long with ICE vehicles that it doesn’t seem significant or unusual — for them.  And gas stations are so abundant/convenient, it’s easier to ignore the fact you need more frequent fill-ups.

Cold weather and winter driving conditions can reduce your fuel economy significantly.

Fuel economy tests show that, in short-trip city driving, a conventional gasoline car's gas mileage is about 12% lower at 20°F than it would be at 77°F. It can drop as much as 22% for very short trips (3 to 4 miles).

The effect on hybrids is worse. Their fuel economy can drop about 31% to 34% under these conditions.

[blumenkraft]

Welcome, Sig.

[NeilT]

Sig, whilst the stats are correct just how many people drive 1-2 miles in the city.  When they say very short they really mean very short as the engine loses efficiency until it is warm and then it doesn't lose any more than any vehicle which needs to heat the cabin.

At very short hop levels, the availability of a fuel station is moot as these vehicles will usually do 400 miles or a lot more (my little one does 650 and my large one does 750).

EV's, on the other hand, with active systems, have to keep the battery and the cabin warm.

Winter night and rain/snow make little difference to an ICE, but make a big difference to an EV.

It is going to take time for the whole thing to come to a true comparison. But when we do, people can make true, informed, decisions.

[Sigmetnow]

What Norway does while waiting for Tesla’s Q1 wave 

Audi E-Tron Was Best-Selling Car In Norway In January 2020
https://insideevs.com/news/397255/norway-january-2020-plugin-car-sales/

(Elon explained during the Third Row podcast why eliminating their process of manufacturing cars for distant markets early in the quarter, to allow time for shipping, then closer markets near end of the quarter, resulting in a “wave” of deliveries near the end, would result in worse quarterly delivery numbers and everyone would freak, so they aren’t scrapping that method.  When Giga Shanghai and Giga Berlin are up and running, the problem should essentially resolve itself.)

[NeilT]

So we can say that without Tesla for competition the eTron wins....

Some accolade.

[Sigmetnow]

In case you are not following the Porsche Taycan Multi-country Adventure Tour:  he has made it successfully across Canada, and south to Portland, Oregon.

Not, however, without blowing out the local grid when he plugged onto one of the Petro-Canada 350kW fast chargers.
https://www.taycanforum.com/forum/threads/taking-one-lap-of-the-country-in-my-taycan-turbo-10k-miles-in-6-weeks-cross-country-journal.879/post-10313

He also points out the difficulties with the short cable on Electrify America chargers which use the basic bollard-at-the-end-of-the-parking-space layout.  A side-of-the-space layout works better.
https://www.taycanforum.com/forum/threads/taking-one-lap-of-the-country-in-my-taycan-turbo-10k-miles-in-6-weeks-cross-country-journal.879/post-10449

Nice to see that a few Tesla owners have joined that thread with good wishes for him.  (Though not everyone appreciates their presence.)

[Sigmetnow]

Businesses see the benefit
Schneider Electric To Replace Entire 14,000 Car Fleet With EVs By 2030
https://insideevs.com/news/397304/schneider-electric-replacing-fleet-with-evs-2030/
At Schneider Electric, we committed to net zero operational carbon emissions by 2030

—-
It’s a start
Confirmed: Electric cars outsold manuals for the first time in 2019

Americans are gradually saying farewell to the possibility of manual transmissions in new cars, just as more families are discovering (and purchasing) electric vehicles.

The two trendlines, it so happens, have been remarkably close to each other for the past few years—both with less than 2% of the market. But in 2019, according to Power Information Network (PIN) data requested by Green Car Reports, electric cars pulled ahead.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1127027_confirmed-electric-cars-outsold-manuals-for-the-first-time-in-2019

I owned manual-transmission cars only, until my present one (it’s now 16 years old) — due to, at various life stages: availability, lower price, better gas mileage, and more fun.  My next car will be a BEV, with 3 out of those 4.

—-
Q:  Where are the other compelling, affordable EVs?
Tesla Model 3 crushes US Top 10 EV list as only car with increasing sales

The list of the Top 10 electric and hybrid vehicles in the United States in Q4 2019 was packed with some of the most notable names in sustainable transportation. However, only one of the vehicles on the list reported a positive year-over-year change in sales: The Tesla Model 3.
The Model 3 sales figures from 2018 to 2019 in the US grew 14%.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-us-top-10-ev-list-2019-yoy-sales/

—-
A:  Not here:
Volkswagen ID.4 Electric Crossover Debut Pushed Back
https://insideevs.com/news/397413/vw-id4-debut-postponed-detroit/amp/

—-
Not much hope we’ll see many from Ford or GM, either.

James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) 2/7/20, 8:17 AM
Let’s take a look at how Tesla, Ford, and GM performed in 2019 vs. 2018. Did they grow?

Revenue:
$TSLA was up +$3.1B
$F was down -$4.5B
$GM was down -$9.8B

GAAP Earnings:
$TSLA was up +$0.1B
$F was down -$3.6B
$GM was down -$1.4B

https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1225770594353983488

[Sigmetnow]

 

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 2/7/20, 5:55 AM
Six CEOs walk into a bar.
@elonmusk: We're already building four, but Giga Texas?
VW: What's software?
BMW: ICE Forever
Toyota: Energy just appears
Nissan: Women can't lift the cables
@ARKInvest: Tesla will have 18 percent.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1225734721596010498

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 2/5/20, 11:59 AM
ArkInvest recently revised its market share assumption for @Tesla in 2023/24 from 11 percent to 18 percent.

When will @ARKInvest revise its market share assumption for Tesla in 2024/25 from 18 percent to 25 percent?

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1225101563963768833
[Poll image below.]

< How about 80% excluding china, might reach 95%+ long term because nobody can actually compete.
VA: This is the logical conclusion, yes.

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 2/7/20, 6:09 AM
Meanwhile...
"Tesla has invented new aluminum alloys that can maintain high yield strength and high conductivity while still being used for die casting electric car parts according to a new patent filing."

Tesla invents new aluminum alloys for die casting electric car parts
https://electrek.co/2020/02/07/tesla-aluminum-alloys-die-casting-in-electric-car-parts/

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1225738305582649345

[blumenkraft]

German governmental media station is bullish on EVs !!

And bearish, looking at the German car industry...

[Buddy]

Chew on this ....

https://www.yahoo.com/news/parking-space-garage-san-francisco-141400450.html

Think the world automobile market won’t decline A LOT over the coming decade or so?

[Sigmetnow]

FullyChargedDanCaesar⚡️ on Twitter: "Wow, Australian ostriches... "
https://mobile.twitter.com/fullychargeddan/status/1226146397331894272
2-minute video: a group of five news anchors have a good laugh about the U.K.’s proposed 2035 ICE car ban, and their unabashed love of their own ICE vehicles.

Edit:
Australian EVC urged to ban on new fossil fuel cars by 2035

Electric Vehicle Council Executive Director (EVC) Behyad Jafari and the principal clean energy transition advisor for Ernst and Young, Matt Rennie urged Australia to follow the UK, which last week announced that it will endorse the ban on selling new gasoline and diesel cars from 2040 to 2035, and add hybrids to the blacklist.

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-is-changing-the-way-australian-politicians-see-ev

[Sigmetnow]

“The background to our forecast of a 30% share of rechargeable cars this year and 40% next year is a sharp increase in the supply of rechargeable cars in different price ranges and in the different segments.” —BIL Sweden CEO, Mattias Bergman

Fossil Fuel Vehicles Plummet 40% In Sweden As EVs Triple To Over 30% Market Share
February 7th, 2020 by Dr. Maximilian Holland

January saw fossil fuel passenger vehicle sales plummet in Sweden by almost 40% year on year, with diesels more than halved, as plug-in vehicle market share climbed to over 30%. Sweden’s auto industry organization expects 30% to be maintained through the full year of 2020.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/07/fossil-fuel-vehicles-plummet-40-in-sweden-as-evs-triple-to-over-30-market-share/
Graph below.

—-
Car buyers shun electric vehicles not named Tesla. Are carmakers driving off a cliff?
Most shocking: this is written by Russ Mitchell, well known for his anti-Tesla articles.  (He does manage to sneak in: “EVs are money-losers for all major automakers, including Tesla.”)

Consumers are still wary of being stuck without juice or are unwilling to wait 20 minutes or more for a quick charge, said Kelley Blue Book’s Ibara. “They are going to be making the second-largest purchase in their lifetime and may be hesitant to buy into new technology they’re not sure will work for them.”

Dealer enthusiasm, or the lack of it, continues to be an issue. A Sierra Club secret shopper survey of 909 dealerships around the U.S. released in November found that 74% weren’t selling EVs at all. Servicing cars is more profitable than selling new cars at most dealerships, and EVs require a lot less maintenance than combustion engines So, EV proponents say, there’s less incentive for dealers to sell EVs. ...

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-01-17/ev-sales-fizzl

[blumenkraft]

Jaguar’s best-selling I-Pace electric car has a problem: it has run out of batteries.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jaguar-halts-electric-suv-over-battery-shortages-7jhbhnmsh

(This surely isn't any problem for VW, Daimler, and the likes since they can wish for batteries way harder than Jaguar)

[Sigmetnow]

Jaguar’s best-selling I-Pace electric car has a problem: it has run out of batteries.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jaguar-halts-electric-suv-over-battery-shortages-7jhbhnmsh

(This surely isn't any problem for VW, Daimler, and the likes since they can wish for batteries way harder than Jaguar)

If wishes were... batteries.

Jaguar I-Pace Battery Shortages, Could Be Headwind for Others?


According to The Sunday Times, Jaguar I-Pace has a problem: it runs out of batteries. Jaguar has been shutting down SUV production at its factory in Graz, Austria for a week starting February 10, due to a shortage of lithium-ion batteries. I-Pace batteries are supplied by the South Korean electronic giant LG Chem, which manufactures them at a factory in Wroclaw, Poland.


Jaguar’s troubles reflect the struggle of automakers to meet the growing demand for electric cars and reduce emissions by relying on fragile supply chains.

In January, Reuters announced that Mercedes was halving production plans for the EQC EV due to battery shortages. The company has denied this article, but let's look at the facts. Previously, Mercedes announced plans to sell about 25,000 EQC cars in 2019 alone, but was able to produce only about 7,000 due to the lack of battery cells. This is a significant difference that makes you think about whether to trust the company in its production plans.



Along with the problems of Mercedes, Audi, in late January, also experienced difficulties with the lack of batteries for its E-Tron. It officially announced that in the first quarter of 2020, 4,100 - 5,700 less electric vehicles will be produced, because the manufacturer is experiencing problems with suppliers of parts for batteries. 

Now the Audi plant in Brussels works only 6 hours a day instead of the prescribed 8. According to the company representative, the delay in deliveries can be from 2 to 6-7 months.

All the major automakers who so much hoped their product would become Tesla killer ended up with a problem.
 ...

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/jaguar-i-pace-battery-shortages-could-be-headwind-for-others

[blumenkraft]

If wishes were... batteries.

They realize now, that they should have started securing the supply chains, established logistic routes, bought mines, etc 10 years ago.

[Yuha]

Here's another article on the battery problems:
https://www.electrive.com/2020/02/10/lack-of-batteries-hinders-mercedes-and-halts-i-pace-production-at-jagauar/

It mentions Jaguar and Audi having supply problems with LG Chem but the most interesting info is about Mercedes:

In a recent report, German business and trade publication Handelsblatt made mention of the battery problem at Mercedes among a number of other issues. Apparently, the reason that only 700 BEVs were sold in Germany in 2019 was “a lack of battery cells and too little knowledge of cell chemistry”. In comparison, competitor BMW sold more than 9000 electric cars in Germany, Tesla even almost 11,000. Referring to corporate groups, Handelsblatt writes that Mercedes is struggling with the fact that LG Chem is unable to supply sufficient cells of consistently good quality. In addition, problems are also arising at Daimler’s own battery assembly facility in Kamenz in Germany, where the cells supplied are used to build ready-to-install batteries. The German luxury carmaker apparently has issues with cell thickness growth and heat management.

Is LG Chem having quality problems?

[Sigmetnow]

If wishes were... batteries.

They realize now, that they should have started securing the supply chains, established logistic routes, bought mines, etc 10 years ago.

Money, money, money.  Dieselgate clearly showed the OEM’S would rather cheat than invest in needed change.  And the problem of ICE emissions is nothing compared to the transformation required to produce EVs.  Years ago, their ICE factories/assets might have been used to help them transition, but those will soon have to simply be written off. 

OEM shareholders would not have accepted negative profits like those Tesla suffered during their EV ramp.  Now Tesla can grow profitably while OEMs will shrink.

——-
Here’s a longish thread, with balance sheets for GM and Ford, and subtweets to similar threads for Daimler, BMW and VW, for anyone who’d like a deep dive into the companies’ financials.  JPR007 suggests another significant financial burden:

JPR007 (@jpr007) 2/8/20, 1:54 PM
GM AND FORD - THE BIG PROBLEM
While we look products, unit volumes, market shares, Revenues and shrinking Profits, both GM and Ford appear to have a much bigger problem sitting on their Balance Sheets :
NEGATIVE EQUITY IN THEIR FINANCING BUSINESS
See this + enclosed THREAD

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1226217634787708930

——-

Sam (@SamTalksTesla) 2/9/20, 4:34 PM
UK to ban all ICE cars from 2035! Many others will follow. #Tesla have proven 100% that EV cars are globally viable & superior. Who in their right mind would buy an ICE after 2025 knowing its residual value will be zilch? Legacy auto: go EV or go BUST!
https://twitter.com/samtalkstesla/status/1226620467517194242

- Adding to this total ban on sales within 15 years, many city centres are banning ICE vehicles within just a few years. This should at least wipe out the medium to high end of vehicle sales, as you'd be completely nuts to buy any 50k+ car that wasn't an EV right now.
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/10/20, 12:37 AM
@SamTalksTesla Your comment above: “Who in their right mind would buy an ICE after 2025 knowing its residual value will be zilch? Legacy auto: go EV or go BUST!” is super important for car buyers. Residual values for gas/diesel cars will plummet in coming years.

Sam: @elonmusk My heart always sinks when I hear about a friend getting a new car and it’s not a Tesla. The good news is a lot of people I know (after test drives!) have pledged to a Tesla being their next car.
< My family wants an EV but are too poor probably for 2035
Sam: There’ll probably be close to a million of them on second hand market by then. Prices are dropping so quickly. Fingers crossed for you.

[Sigmetnow]

Here's another article on the battery problems:
https://www.electrive.com/2020/02/10/lack-of-batteries-hinders-mercedes-and-halts-i-pace-production-at-jagauar/

It mentions Jaguar and Audi having supply problems with LG Chem but the most interesting info is about Mercedes:

In a recent report, German business and trade publication Handelsblatt made mention of the battery problem at Mercedes among a number of other issues. Apparently, the reason that only 700 BEVs were sold in Germany in 2019 was “a lack of battery cells and too little knowledge of cell chemistry”. In comparison, competitor BMW sold more than 9000 electric cars in Germany, Tesla even almost 11,000. Referring to corporate groups, Handelsblatt writes that Mercedes is struggling with the fact that LG Chem is unable to supply sufficient cells of consistently good quality. In addition, problems are also arising at Daimler’s own battery assembly facility in Kamenz in Germany, where the cells supplied are used to build ready-to-install batteries. The German luxury carmaker apparently has issues with cell thickness growth and heat management.

Is LG Chem having quality problems?

The problem is not just “battery cells.”  It’s pouch/prismatic-cell battery packs versus cylindrical-cell battery packs.  Tesla is the only one using the latter, and they are less expensive and better quality.

Tesla's competitors play catch-up on electric batteries
Published Mon, Feb 10 2020

Tesla's experience in building electric vehicle battery packs is helping the electric car company extend its lead over other automakers, according to a new report.

Cairn Energy Research Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in electric vehicle battery research, says the cost of a cylindrical cell battery pack dropped to $158.27 per kilowatt-hour last year, down by more than $100 per kWh from four years ago.

Tesla is the only automaker to use cylindrical battery cells in its battery packs. Other automakers use battery packs that include pouch or prismatic battery cells. Those battery packs cost, on average, more than $200 per kWh in 2019, according to Cairn.

"Tesla simply has been engineering these packs longer than its competitors, and therefore it has a technology lead that is significant," said Sam Jaffe, Cairn's managing director. ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/teslas-competitors-play-catch-up-on-electric-batteries.html

[Sigmetnow]

What America's epic electric vehicle charging system may look like

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Congressman Andy Levin (both Democrats) introduced the politically ambitious Electric Vehicle (EV) Freedom Act last Thursday, which intends to create an unprecedented, nationwide system of powerful, fast-charging stations. The goal is to make charging an electric car as easy as filling up a tank of gas. Americans have been slow to adopt electric vehicles because of anxieties about how far cars can travel before running low on power. Electric vehicles only make up about 1.8 percent of cars purchased in the U.S. today.

The legislation invites compelling questions about what such a transformative highway charging system would look like, and where the chargers would be built. …
…
Generally, charging electric vehicles is much easier than gassing up cars. Unlike gas-powered vehicles, most electric cars are "filled up" while plugged in at home. Between 90 to 95 percent of charging is done at home....

https://mashable.com/article/electric-vehicle-charging-network-us/

—-
FEBRUARY 11, 2020
Daimler CEO says meeting CO2 targets in 2020, 2021 a challenge

STUTTGART, Germany, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Daimler will not sacrifice the profitability of next generation electric cars Chief Executive Ola Kaellenius said on Tuesday, as the carmaker struggles to meet more stringent European Union anti-pollution rules.
…
Speaking at the company’s annual results news conference in Stuttgart, Germany, Kaellenius said Daimler, which owns the Mercedes-Benz brand, would have a hard time meeting the new emissions limits.

“In the medium term I am confident. 2020 and 2021 will be a challenge,” Kaellenius said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-daimler-results-carbon-idUSKBN2051KG

[blumenkraft]

Oh my fucking gosh the madness doesn't stop.

VW is now realizing that batteries could be a good thing when it comes to charging stations. And they have the chutzpah to promote it as a new and innovative thing.

Can't wait for them to die!

Link >> https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-releases/new-innovative-solution-for-ultra-fast-charging-electric-vehicles-5788

[nanning]

^^
I think that's how all (commercial) public relations departments work: They lie. This is not unique to VW.
And a legal person in the form of a company/corporation cannot die. They are not real but an economic/legal fantasy. Many real people could lose their jobs.
Personification is tempting (because it's easier) but dangerous because it distorts the real view.

[blumenkraft]

Yes, marketing is just a fancy synonym for the word lie.

As of the VW worker. The world is changing. That's the only constant there is. Will VW dying (which is only a fancy synonym for going bankrupt in this context and not a personalisation) cause people to have to get a new job? Yes. Is it inherently a bad thing? Hell no.

[NeilT]

If you look at where the German manufacturers are moving into, you see that they are moving outside of the EU (mainly), for manufacturing.

In the UK we have some rather interesting characters.  Like the head of MI6 (CIA equivalent), in court, arguing with the judge.

"I did not lie to you.  I was merely economical with the truth"......

[Sigmetnow]

“News that the UK end date may shunt forward to 2032 comes as no surprise.
Norway has set a 2025 deadline for a ban on new petrol and diesel cars. Some Chinese cities are discussing a date around 2030.”
“The UK has set a target of emitting virtually zero carbon by 2050. Experts warned that the original target date of 2040 would still leave old conventional cars on the roads 10 years later.”

Wales:  2032. < In the meantime, buy a hybrid. >
Petrol, diesel and hybrid car ban could come in just 12 years
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/petrol-diesel-hybrid-car-ban-17734676

Scotland:  2032.  < In the meantime, stop buying so many SUVs. >
Petrol and diesel car sales ban could start in 12 years, says Shapps
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51474769

[gerontocrat]

Yes, marketing is just a fancy synonym for the word lie.

As of the VW worker. The world is changing. That's the only constant there is. Will VW dying (which is only a fancy synonym for going bankrupt in this context and not a personalisation) cause people to have to get a new job? Yes. Is it inherently a bad thing? Hell no.

"Is it inherently a bad thing? Hell no." if there are new jobs.

There are many "one-party democracies" where the elite sometimes have bad dreams about the young, educated, urban unemployed.

In Australia, both Liberal (i.e right-wing) & Labor (pretend left-wing) politicians are running scared of the 200,000+ workers in coal, iron ore and copper mining.

If as industries die, if Governments help in retraining and developing new industries, then we are talking about changing employment.

If Governments don't, as in the UK in the 1980's and 1990's when most of the coal industry was demolished, the misery of redundancy ad unemployment lasts for years. There are ex-coal mining communities scattered over the UK where economic recovery has never happened and hope remains dead.

I find your comment as one to be expected from the proponents of "creative destruction" touting the the philosophy of Ayn Rand.

[blumenkraft]

if there are new jobs.

What makes you think there aren't?

I mean, 95% of German housing is not sufficiently insulated. Houses with solar on the roof are still rare. There are still tens of thousands of windmills to built. Our service sector is shit. Care of the elderly is shit. Whenever i walk the streets i see shit that has to be done.

On the other hand, there are countries in the world with no car factories at all, and they have jobs nonetheless, right?

I find your comment as one to be expected from the proponents of "creative destruction" touting the the philosophy of Ayn Rand.

And this, sir, i take as an insult.

I demand you take it back!

Edit:

I find it astonishing how people defend a company that literally caused thousands of deaths as a function of their cheating and lying and breaking the law.

The "BUT THE JOBS ... " argument is corporate propaganda perfectly reasonable people are willing to eat up.

No, it is not ok to break the law. And a company doing it for decades deserves to fucking die. The one eating up the bogus corporate spin is the Ayn Rand fan here no one else.

[nanning]

Dear blumenkraft, I read/interpret that sentence from gerontocrat differently. He doesn't state that you belong to that group. He states that these are arguments/visions that match the group that he roughly describes. I don't know that specific group and I don't know Ayn Rand.

It would have been better to write "If my interpretation is correct, then I feel that you insulted me. Could you please specify what you mean by this sentence. Do you see me as belonging to that group?".
Perhaps gerontocrat did mean that 'insult', I don't know. It is not clear from the text I think.

deserves to fucking die

The 'death' penalty?
That is not how I know you. Strongly regulated and audited is a better 'punishment'. Remember that it is the management layer that does the lying, and the companies are operating in a neo-liberal economic paradigm. That means that this bad behaviour is likely along the lines of 'good business' i.e. profit without 'red tape' without regulation.
Didn't you hear? Companies are the new civilians. Being a large international business, they are protected. Likely the bad behaviour was silently approved by the government. Did the German government take strict hard and measures against the diesel-gate perpetrators? I haven't any change in the past years. Even the E.U., which is not just Germany, didn't really press the matter. Money money money  kerchingg.

Please don't see this post as an attack, or me choosing gerontocrat's side blumenkraft. If only everything would be so simple as black-and-white or yes/no or good/bad.

[blumenkraft]

Dear blumenkraft, I read/interpret that sentence from gerontocrat differently.

It would make sense he meant it differently because the Ayn Rand people are libertarians who want the power in corporate hands.

I for one attack corporations with too much power by default because they are inherently undemocratic. Putting me into this brainless libertarian group is just kafkaesque.

Still, i can't read it differently.

The 'death' penalty?

Now you are the one personalizing corporations.

And no, you can't really regulate them. They are too powerful. They lobby their way out of regulations. This is just the reality. They even worked on rigging the EU regulations. And they succeded!

They are breaking the law over and over again without consequences for them. Why are there no consequences you ask? Again, because they are, as a company, too damn powerful!

You know, there are other companies able to create jobs. Companies with less deadly products perhaps. Or companies that don't break the law all the time.

VW is a murderous corrupt shithole of a company. It's a destructive empire.

[kassy]

Also we have known these changes are needed for decades already.

They could have planned and worked on the transition already but instead they worked together to kick the can down the road (the lame cheating only worked because the EU test is so lame. Just use real data).

This planet just cannot afford coal miners either.
Go make and install charging stations (bet Germany does not have enough of those either).

[blumenkraft]

Exactly! Thanks, Kassy!

[NeilT]

VW cheated for the worst possible reason, they simply did not want to pay the money to catch up faster.

But to assume that they can just die without consequences is an oversimplification.

Germany is overly invested in the Auto manufacturing business, any significant interruption of this will heavily impact the economy and jobs.  Those jobs come with people who have votes and they will, democratically, punish you for taking their jobs away.

We have seen the direct result of this with the Brexit cliff edge shutdowns by Auto manufacturers in the UK.  Not only was the economy impacted by this, but up to 25,000 companies in the UK, supplying components and skills, felt the pinch too.

In Germany it would be far worse.

[nanning]

Why single out VW? I think all multinational large corporations/companies do the same. Tobacco? Pharmaceuticals? Fossil fuel industry? Agribusiness? Monsato/Bayer? Mining? Food giants? Social Media? Software giants? Finance? Intelligence agencies?

Again, they all operate in a globalised, privatised, financialised, corrupt and profit maximising-without-externalities neo-liberal system that facilitates and stimulates creative rule breaking, creative accounting, anti-democratic lobbying etc. with inpunity. Governments are part of this system.
The behaviour of those businesses is normal and successful. You should blame the current insanely destructive system.
It is much, much too late for change. This system has become our globally shared culture.

Apologies for another off-topic post.

[kassy]

Which is why it would have been smart to start years in advance. Germany could have been the global leader in EVs. If they had wanted too.

But of course all old structures like VW (and Kodak) want to keep doing what they do best and keep making that money and then the world changes around you. This is also happening now.

Also the company will probably live in some form but there will be quite some job losses in the industry and its suppliers. Probably sucks for the workers pension funds too because it always does.

But these developments were always inavoidable. It is just that everybody keeps kicking the can down the road until someone catches it and finds himself at the end of a dead end street.

ETA: VW is just an example.

[blumenkraft]

Why single out VW? I think all multinational large corporations/companies do the same. Tobacco? Pharmaceuticals? Fossil fuel industry? Agribusiness? Monsato/Bayer? Mining? Food giants? Social Media? Software giants? Finance? Intelligence agencies?

Yes, agreed. They all have to die.

And this is not a plaidoyer for destruction. On the contrary!!

The car industry has to die to make place for sustainable transport solutions.
Medical and software patents have to die. Replaced by open source.
The fossil fuel mafia has to die to be replaced by decentralized, public renewable energy sources.

etc etc etc

There is a better version of everything.

This is a plaidoyer to be better, to become sustainable, to lower environmental footprints, to save lives, to lower suffering.

Accusing me of being of the kinds of Steve Bannon for doing so, as Gero did, is outright insulting.

[bluice]

The Invisible hand is not a gentle one. Job destruction caused by new technology can and does have effects lasting not only years, but even generations. Whole communities are sometimes destroyed in the process. We know this since the luddites.

This is no reason to keep old industries alive no matter the cost but there will be consequences which must be dealt with.

[Sigmetnow]

Sorry to interrupt....  But here’s where the other side of the transition looks to be headed. (From the Tesla thread.)

“We have the technology to secure the global supply of lithium for the future and extract it in a more environmentally sustainable method.”
This Breakthrough Lithium Extraction Technology Could Accelerate The Sustainable Energy Transition

EnergyX claim their patented LiTAS technology, underpinned by research published in leading academic journals Science and Nature, revolutionises this.  The new method accelerates the lithium extraction process from years to days, and rather than a 30-50% extraction rate, the technology captures closer to 90% of the lithium in the mix.

The underlying science is based on a new class of materials called metal-organic frameworks (MOF), which have an extremely large internal surface area and small pore sizes.  These act like an organic sieve to separate very accurately different metal ions of similar size.

“The fact that we are seeing MOF membranes target and separate these specific metal ions in an aqueous mixture is a pioneering and novel breakthrough,” explains TJ Dilenschneider, Chief Science Officer at EnergyX.  “The ‘salts’ in saltwater brines are all so similar, that having the ability to target and separate lithium from magnesium and calcium or sodium from lithium at high concentrations is phenomenal.”
…
The set-up costs and environmental impact of LiTAS are also expected to be minimal.  “Compared to the vast evaporation ponds, our technology can be deployed in fraction of that, in a factory setting,” added Egan.  With no major land purchase costs, significant areas of natural terrain can be left unspoilt and unlike traditional evaporation techniques used by lithium miners no external freshwater usage is required. ...

https://www-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.forbes.com/sites/marekkubik/2019/09/24/this-breakthrough-lithium-extraction-technology-could-accelerate-the-sustainable-energy-transition/amp/

Iain Herd (@iainherd) 2/12/20, 3:18 PM
Talking of location coincidences. Map these US lithium regions / deposits with current proposed GigaFactories. Five bucks that GigaTexas is within 250-330 miles of Magnolia, Arkansas
https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/imap/5d0baffce4b0e3d31162044c 

https://twitter.com/iainherd/status/1227688477577359361
Austin, Texas is about 336 miles from Magnolia, AR as the crow flies.

[vox_mundi]

China’s New Energy Vehicle Sales More Than Halved in January, as Covid-19 Weighs on World’s Largest Car Market
https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3050513/chinas-new-energy-vehicle-sales-more-halved-january-covid-19

The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China sank 54.5 per cent in January, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said on Thursday.

Sales of NEVs, which include pure electric and plug-in hybrid cars, dropped to 43,700 units last month from 96,000 units in the same period a year ago. The overall sales of vehicles, including passenger cars, trucks and commercial vehicles fell 18 per cent year on year to 1.94 million units, said the association, which is a government-backed industry consortium.

... Gong said he expected passenger car retail sales to decline by at least 50 per cent year on year in February. About 20 per cent of capacity will be lost in the first quarter because of plant shutdowns, supply-chain disruption and a quarantined workforce, Gong said.

Bolstered by heavy government subsidies aimed at encouraging the use of environmentally friendly cars, NEVs had been a bright spot in China’s carmaking industry between 2014 and June last year. Sales have been dropping since, after Beijing cut these subsidies by up to 60 per cent.

[gerontocrat]

Hullo Blumenkraft,

I guess you are an optimist - in that you think / hope / believe that when these old industries are swept away, they will be replaced by better solutions including attention to the condition of the people.

And it is true that those better ways do exist.

But, having been in too many countries and involved in the aftermath of economic collapse too many times and with people trying to survive, I am not an optimist. The same or a new lot of shitheads gain control, and the people are a "necessary sacrifice" to the new way.

I expect a profound increase in unemployment over the next few years - e.g. the Auto Industry in Germany employs over 800,000 directly and 2 million indirectly. EVs need less labour to make and less labour to maintain. (I expect a major increase in employee productivity from the Tesla Model Y and the Cybertruck). I expect the UK to end up with - nothing.

After all, it is a long time since the Soviet Union, the Warsaw Pact and Comecon collapsed. I guess that there are plenty of places in former East Germany still waiting for better times to arrive. And as you write, the societal / environmental needs are obvious just from taking a walk down the street.

Perhaps, no - certainly, I over-reacted to that last line in your post, for which I am sorry. But you need to know the sheer power of the forces that work entirely on self-interest (Ayn Rand is the mother of "Greed is Good") and of those who label anything remotely approaching Social Justice as naked socialism / communism. They will steal your script, and add things like " there is always a job if people get on their bike and look for them. Creative Destruction rules, OK.

And that's far too much I said about that