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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2050 on: December 12, 2020, 10:22:12 PM »
p.s. I hope the put fuel stabilizer in the tank.

oren

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2051 on: December 13, 2020, 12:09:42 AM »
The German schizophrenia thing is nonsense. It's like saying you won't drown in water of average 10cm depth. People want to cover the 99th percentile, while the median is much smaller.
Besides, it is "known" that true electric range is significantly lower than advertised range, especially in Europe where the unrealistic WLTP is used, and especially with traditional auto-makers who cheat and lie as a way of life. So a high official range gives assurance that the range that you truly need will be available.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2052 on: December 13, 2020, 04:14:51 AM »
I think most non-EV drivers (Germans included) have no idea — or, rather, probably have the wrong idea — of how life with EV charging actually works.  I bet the uninitiated still think most charging sessions require hours or even days, and that chargers are few and far between.  They may not even realize that most EV owners charge up at home and start most mornings with a full “tank.” 

If filling up at a gas station is all you know, of course you’d think charging must be difficult and in short supply, and therefore you must have an EV with long range to quell your anxiety.
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oren

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2053 on: December 13, 2020, 07:10:34 AM »
Don't forget another Europe-US difference, in the US the norm is having your own home, especially for those with above average income (correlated with early EV adoption), thus able to charge overnight easily. In Germany I believe the proportion of such homes is quite lower. I will look for stats.

oren

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2054 on: December 13, 2020, 07:21:36 AM »
According to google:
Quote
Most Germans live in multi-family houses with up to ten apartments. Roughly one quarter live in large housing blocks or high-rise buildings and one third in single-family homes

In addition:
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54% of Germans live in rented accommodation – more than in any other country in Europe. Only roughly 46% own a house or apartment.

https://www.deutschland.de/en/topic/life/lifestyle-cuisine/housing-in-germany

gerontocrat

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2055 on: December 13, 2020, 08:16:17 PM »
Graphs on US home ownership.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2056 on: December 14, 2020, 02:40:50 AM »
It’s not just home owners.

Multi–family units, including rental properties, with on-site parking can provide charging (usually a limited number of spaces) for tenants.  I don’t know the percentage, but it’s becoming a more common perk, and even a requirement in some jurisdictions.
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oren

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2057 on: December 14, 2020, 09:24:33 AM »
Don't assume that European buildings come with their own dedicated parking. Some of them do and some don't, but the percentage will be far lower than in the US which is centered around single-family homes with their own driveway/garage. If you use street parking, and lack charging in your workplace, you will not be able charge daily and always have a full battery. Even if you live in a building with its own parking lot, there is a difference between "can" provide charges and "do".
Along with justified concerns about differences between real life range (including lights, heating, higher speed driving, effects of temperature and more) and the unrealistic WLTP range, and along with the need to cover longer occasional drives and not just a trip to the office and back, early EV adopters especially in Europe are correct to require a much higher nominal range than their daily commute. Not schizophrenia, common sense.

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2058 on: December 14, 2020, 12:20:42 PM »
Most of the world has recognised that EV is the way forward and that they need to start moving their charging infrastructure a lot faster.

That being said, a "lot faster" is sloth speed compared to what is needed.  So range anxiety is fully warranted.

My daughter lives in a new build house, it is just over 10 years old.  The houses are terraced, the parking is off street but separate from the houses and there is no power At All.  If she were to go EV, she would need to have 50kw chargers within a 25 mile radius.  Right now there are Zero.  All chargers within a 25 mile radius are 7kw.

Let me put that into perspective.  Nowhere in the UK is more than 80 miles from the coast and the country is the 32nd most population dense in the world.  She doesn't live in the wilds of Scotland either.  She lives in the heart of the East Midlands.

I also saw this lack at Tesco last year when I worked there.  We had parking for 4,000 vehicles on the entire campus.  There were around 50 7kw charging points.  All of them with a PHEV plugged in.  The few Tesla's were sitting in the parking bays with no charging.

Until this situation is resolved, range anxiety will remain.
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blu_ice

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2059 on: December 14, 2020, 02:59:46 PM »
To improve EV adaptation European cities must build charging infrastructure along streets where people park their cars for the night. I wonder who's gonna pay for that when most people still drive ICEs.

And if those charger spots are for EVs only, where shall all the ICEs go? City parking space is usually in short supply.

Expect lots of heated and emotional arguments.

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2060 on: December 14, 2020, 03:22:30 PM »
Hard to work out and good quality study material is out of date before it publishes.

See this article on the EU, with UK data.

https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/publications/01%202020%20Draft%20TE%20Infrastructure%20Report%20Final.pdf

Then look at ZapMap for the UK.

https://www.zap-map.com/statistics/

There are some differences as the UK counts 7kw - 22kw as fast and the study has 11kw as the base for fast chargers.

But the super fast chargers is way out of date compared to UK actual deployment.

Things are moving.  Just whether it is fast enough is the question.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2061 on: December 14, 2020, 04:05:44 PM »
”All of these diverse examples showcase how multi-family properties are finding creative solutions to offer charging to EV owners on-site. With the help of companies like EVmatch, electric car ownership is getting easier for many of those who don't have easy charging access via a home garage. Efforts like these continue to help the EV community grow.”

Charging an electric car is getting easier at multi-family properties
Posted on December 12, 2020
Quote
At current growth rates, there will be more than 30 million electric vehicles (EVs) on U.S. roads within a decade, and that was projected before California and New Jersey called for a ban on gas car sales by 2035. So, the question is — where will they all charge?

There are a number of efforts underway to increase public charging, especially fast charging along major highway corridors by companies like Electrify America, EVgo, and Tesla. But if today is any guide, more than 80% of charging will continue to take place at home. That’s great news for homeowners since most “fueling” won’t require a trip to a gas station across town; instead, drivers can pull into their own garage and charge up overnight.

But what about the 40% of Americans who rent or live in multi-unit dwellings (MUD)? Most of these buildings were designed (and built) long before EVs started hitting the mainstream. As a result, they often lack adequate electrical infrastructure for EV charging, and many retrofitting options today are expensive for the owner’s or HOA’s budget. Meanwhile, as more and more tenants make the switch to electric cars, they're demanding EV charging options at their multi-unit dwelling.

EVmatch is attacking this issue head-on by providing affordable EV charging solutions for apartments and condos. The company looks at creative ways to combine networked charging stations with proprietary management software so that property owners can recoup electricity costs, add a new revenue stream, and attract tenants with a charging amenity.


Above: A look at EVMatch's charging solutions (Source: EVMatch)

Smart software with payment processing, booking, and group management features allow EV drivers to reserve a charger for a specific time period for easy sharing among tenants — all without requiring property management staff time. If site hosts want to earn more revenue, EVMatch's software allows them to offer public access at customizable times and prices.

Intriguing case studies of EV charging with multi-family customers are popping up all over the United States, from Vermont to California.

Here's one: as part of an ongoing charger deployment program with Burlington Electric Department, EVMatch has installed stations at 2-4-plexes, HOA properties, and a wide range of apartment buildings.

Other examples of properties in Burlington showcase a variety of access options from EVMatch. One HOA is only offering charging to its members, while a 20-unit apartment is offering 24/7 access to tenants and weekday access to the public. Cambrian Rise, a large apartment living community with sweeping views of Lake Champlain, will open six chargers to tenants and the general public later this year.

Another Vermont property at the base of a ski resort, Mount Snow, installed multiple chargers and offers access to condo residents and the general public 24/7, thanks to a partnership between Green Mountain Power and EVmatch. Skiers, tourists, and residents can easily book charging reservations in advance, offering convenience and peace of mind.

In addition, EVmatch has also partnered with Silicon Valley Clean Energy (SVCE) to install chargers at multi-family properties in the San Francisco Bay Area. Large 160-unit complexes and smaller 28-unit apartment buildings are some of the properties that have taken advantage of the program.

The Cannery, an affordable housing property in Gilroy, is installing shared chargers to help underserved communities make the switch to electric transportation, and Manzanita Apartments, a 28-unit property in Sunnyvale, plans to install up to six chargers for both tenant and public use. 
https://evannex.com/blogs/news/smart-software-is-making-ev-charging-much-easier-at-multi-family-properties
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2062 on: December 14, 2020, 09:52:48 PM »
VW CEO Diess stays to lead new executive team but no contract extension
"Diess had sought to lower costs in Germany to free up resources for a mass electrification push and to transform the 83-year old automaker into a tech company modelled on Tesla."
Quote
FRANKFURT (Reuters) -Volkswagen's supervisory board on Monday said Chief Executive Herbert Diess had its full support as he leads a new executive team to transform the German automaker but stopped short of bringing forward a contract extension.

In a power struggle leading up to a board meeting on Monday, Diess had demanded an early contract extension and more backing for his reform efforts from the carmaker's non-executive board. He met resistance from powerful directors who represent employees and unions. …
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN28O2P5
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2063 on: December 14, 2020, 10:10:28 PM »
Bloomberg: e-trucks will sell very well in the U.S.
Fiat Chrysler, Ford and General Motors
December 13, 2020
Quote
For all the talk of "Tesla fighters," Fiat Chrysler, Ford and General Motors were fine to let Mr. Musk have his fun and his fun-house stock valuation. That is until 2018 when Tesla started tweeting about making a pickup. Around the same time, it became clear that Rivian and a crowd of other startups would be doing the same.

Within months, Ford was teasing an electric F-150 and General Motors promised a battery-powered Silverado to follow its all new GMC Hummer pickup. Dodge is reportedly joining the silent truck scrum as well....

Frankly, it's odd the announcements didn't come sooner -- at least from Musk and the startup crowd. Americans love pickups and increasingly so. These days, about  three in four vehicles bought in the U.S. is either a pickup truck or an SUV, up from about 50% in the past decade.

As long as EV designers stayed away from trucks, Detroit kept hauling off huge half-ton profits. What's more, pickups are one of the few places where U.S. manufacturers still enjoy a massive trade barrier, so competition is a little less crushing and they can carry larger profit margins.

Ironically, this same dynamic offers some tidy unit economics for electric trucks. Because Detroit enjoys such pricing power and makes so many of these rigs, electric trucks should be far more profitable than, say, a scrappy Chevrolet Bolt. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kevin Tynan says it is the one vehicle segment where all-electric motors can be profitable at scale -- and that's currently, not assuming big gains in battery efficiency or cost savings.

In the next few months, America will quickly become e-truck country. It's anybody's guess how many EV skeptics they will attract, but it's not a stretch to suspect the parade of battery-powered pickups to account for more for EV adoption than anything to date, including Mr. Musk and $7,500 federal tax credits per purchase.

And the decisions at the plant level will ripple through the entire EV ecosystem. Electrify America, one of the nation's leading charging networks, is shifting some of its infrastructure focus from interstates to rugged destinations like ski areas and national parks, according to Robert Barrosa, senior director of sales, business development and marketing. "With these types of vehicles," he says, "it starts to open those types of locations up."

Tesla delivered 367,500 vehicles last year, mainly sedans and small SUVs. Americans bought as many pickups in less than two months -- mainly from Detroit's Big Three. In an e-truck future, they probably like their odds. 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-12-13/fiat-chrysler-ford-and-general-motors
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BeeKnees

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2064 on: December 15, 2020, 09:43:37 AM »
Still not convinced fast chargers are a must outside of motorways.

The main requirement is that you can plug in the car either at home/work or other locations visited for sufficient time to meet your daily needs without running the battery down .

That will depend on driving habits but for the vast majority it's going to be about 3-4 hours every 2-3 days @ 7kw.

The streets around me are mostly terrace already have on street charging and has done for a few year now, expect much more of this as EVs become more common.


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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2065 on: December 15, 2020, 11:26:39 AM »
Without legislation I doubt that work will provide the level of charging required.  Also parking will need an extremely high level of charging availability.  Again, without legislation, private car parks are not going to comply.

On street is already in process, but slow.

For fast charging, I'm talking 50kw.  It's not impossible and it makes the whole thing viable.  Sufficient 50kw chargers at the supermarket and your charging is assured.  40 minutes every 3-4 days is viable.  3-4 hours at the supermarket, coffee shop, etc, is not.

In Lincoln, England, where I was born, new trading estate rules limit parking to between 2 and 3 hours.  If you exceed you get a large fine.  So even going out and shopping on a Saturday becomes prohibitive for charging at 7kw.

This won't happen if we reach a crunch, as Oslo did, of limited availability of charging points with long charge times.

For instance, on street is not going to work if you come home at 7pm, plug in and have to go out at 11pm and move the vehicle due to time restrictions on EV charge bays to keep the points open.

As we move towards mass roll out, we need to accept that the minimum public charge point needs to be 50kw.
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oren

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2066 on: December 15, 2020, 12:08:46 PM »
Disagree, 7kw is great for on street parking and for parking lots, but there needs to be an over-abundance of these points. I expect this will hapoen over time, and governments need to be proactive about it.
7kw for 1 hour can give you 40km or even 50km of range. Not bad for a stop at the supermarket or a cafe. But this needs to happen everywhere you go, to remove range anxiety for people who lack their own charging point. If you're lucky to park overnight in an on street charging spot, you are sorted for a week or so, but the probabilty of finding one should be high.
50kw chargers need to be on inter-city routes, as well as scattered here and there around town, especially in locations frequented by tourists/outsiders making a stop (supermarket, museum, viewpoint etc.).

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2067 on: December 15, 2020, 12:24:49 PM »
If you recall my comments on the batteries thread.  Letting your EV drop below 50%, then keeping it below 50% and discharging/charging, because you can't get long enough to get the vehicle over 70%, is the danger zone in charge discharge cycles.

It is not a welcome message "Trash your battery because we can't be bothered to provide enough charging".

Remember we are talking massive adoption of EV being brought into the "normal use" scenario.

7Kw doesn't cut it and this will only become evident when there are enough people using it.

Today people choose to use EV and to fit their lives around it.  When regulation forces EV it is going to be a complete about face.  If we do not want governments falling over stupid decisions, made now, then we need to face up to the fact that charging is an issue and range anxiety will remain so long as charging infra does not meet the needs of the many.
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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2068 on: December 15, 2020, 01:17:05 PM »
Also you might want to go have a look at Norway on Openchargemap.

https://openchargemap.org/site

You can see where this is heading with public chargers.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2069 on: December 15, 2020, 02:42:27 PM »
Things will change. 
People will still park and where they park there will be a market for charging.

Norway isn't really comparable to UK due to sparse population resulting in higher distances traveled.

All roadside cafes and hotels have fast charge points for people travelling distances, that doesn't serve population centres.  Look at Oslo and you find most chargers are nowhere near 50kW

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2070 on: December 15, 2020, 10:57:55 PM »
I'm aware things will change, but they will be more relevant if we aim for a more realistic target.

The message was not how many 7kw and 3kw chargers there were, but the balance of 22kw and above chargers.

My take is that 50kw will become the base level for on Street parking.

My stake in the ground..
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2071 on: December 16, 2020, 04:59:27 AM »
Most of us sleep/ work  8 hours a day.
A 7kw charger will take an EV from 20 to 80% in that time. Average mileage per week in the uk is about 150. An average driver  would only need to take on  such a charge around once a week.
In the majority of user cases fast charging is only needed for long distance travel.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2072 on: December 16, 2020, 07:34:06 AM »
NeitT makes a point that some are missing. Until now, people buy cars based on the max miles they expect to drive, not the average. Then they expect to fill up, take a pee and roll on in less than 15 minutes.

That buyer behaviour must change and the expectations must change or batteries and chargers must improve  b4 electric takeover. I am vaguely optimistic that batteries and chargers will improve faster than most of us imagine.

sidd


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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2073 on: December 16, 2020, 10:24:57 AM »
EV advantage is that you can plug it in for the night and wake up every morning with a full "tank".

Low kW charger is enough for this, but the problem is city people need to have chargers on the streets where they park for the night.

High kW chargers are needed on the road for long distance driving. Most people rarely drive long distances, even in sparsely populated countries.

BeeKnees

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2074 on: December 16, 2020, 02:21:55 PM »
NeitT makes a point that some are missing. Until now, people buy cars based on the max miles they expect to drive, not the average. Then they expect to fill up, take a pee and roll on in less than 15 minutes.

That buyer behaviour must change and the expectations must change or batteries and chargers must improve  b4 electric takeover. I am vaguely optimistic that batteries and chargers will improve faster than most of us imagine.

sidd

The point is absolutely valid.  Which is why fast charging on long distance routes are a must so that a driver can do long distances.

The mindset is wrong, providing a charge point is available for a sufficient period that a car is parked then high powered chargers are not required and I would argue as detrimental to the future of a cleaner grid.  We want cars to charge slowly throughout the day when solar is strong or at night when demand is otherwise low. 

My expectation is for large roll out of mostly 7kw and some 22kW chargers at home, street and carpark locations, with the higher power available at services. 

The only changes in behavior I expect is a lack of visiting petrol stations and remembering to plug in the car at night/work.  For this reason I believe the number of charge points available will be more important than the speed at which they charge.  For most people it will become no different to charging your mobile phone. 

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2075 on: December 16, 2020, 03:57:35 PM »
providing a charge point is available for a sufficient period that a car is parked

That is the point.  The moment chargers become congested, time limits will appy.

So the assumptions that "you just plug in at night and get up in the morning with a full tank" go right out of the window.

This is not conjecture.  We've seen it at Tesla chargers where the assumption you can just plug into a supercharger and go for a meal for an hour goes out the window.  In fact you have to move your vehicle when charged or face additional penalties.

Do you honestly believe that the government and charging providers will keep on putting in 7kw chargers to every bay when cycling vehicles could charge 5 times as many vehicles?  Because I am far from certain that this will be the state of play and 7KW and below chargers will be a prime target for this kind of move.

To assume that city on street parking won't do the same thing when charger times becomes stressed is wishful thinking.  This then brings up the problem that additional parking will be required over and above EV parking spaces, because you will need somewhere to move your vehicle to.

I spent 6 months working in Munich at the turn of the last century.  When I got my car into a free parking space with no fee's on it, the very LAST thing I tried to do was move it.  Because parking was exactly that difficult.

This is a real problem for up to 70% of the population.  Because it is not just renters who have on street parking, there are plenty of owned homes which don't have a driveway.

Perfect Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance.

Wishful thinking ensures it.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2076 on: December 16, 2020, 04:32:39 PM »
I'm aware things will change, but they will be more relevant if we aim for a more realistic target.

The message was not how many 7kw and 3kw chargers there were, but the balance of 22kw and above chargers.

My take is that 50kw will become the base level for on Street parking.

My stake in the ground..

I’ve been driving a BMW i3 around the UK for over three years and know my way around the charging networks on the major motorways plus the local situation in Manchester, Bristol and North London.

I have a realistic limit of 125 miles on a full charge so I do often need to make a stop to recharge when travelling. This shouldn’t be too challenging as, given the state of our motorways right now, 125 miles represents over two hours of driving and a stop and a short break isn’t a bad idea.

So what have I learned?

On motorways and trunk roads there’s no point in using 7kW ‘fast’ charger unless you’re desperate. They’re fine at pubs, restaurants, supermarkets and long stay car parks where you intend to spend some time but irrelevant if you’re going from A to B.

The complexity created by the CCS and CHAdeMO systems is a pain.

There’s just one thing that’s more annoying than the plethora of local/regional charging points that require a specific RFID card you don’t have and that’s a broken charger that you can use.
The state of the Ecotricity charging points that monopolise UK motorway service stations is appalling. If Dale Vince spent more time looking after his business and less on his Forest Green Rovers football team things might improve. I drove from Worcester back home to Cheshire last Saturday (100 miles) and there wasn’t a single CCS charger that was operational.

It’s really irritating to sit waiting for a Nissan Leaf driver to finish his coffee whilst staring at an empty row of Tesla chargers.

Milton Keynes is electric car charging central.

My i3 works brilliantly for the majority of the local journeys I make. I had solar panels installed over a decade ago. When my smart meter tells me I’m exporting to the grid I plug into a domestic socket using the slow charge setting to capture the exported energy. This means that my local mileage is, much of the time, carbon free and what’s even better is that the government pays me a feed in tariff for generating it so it’s essentially cost free as well.

Do I regret my decision to go electric? Not at all, but I am glad that I made the decision to buy the only car on the market with a “range extender” - a 600cc petrol engine that will charge the battery to hold the state of charge if you need to. I’ve used it in anger maybe five times but it was worth the extra cost and slight range reduction caused by the additional weight as it totally removes range anxiety.

There are good cost-based reasons why it’s 7kW chargers that dominate the UK network as this is the maximum possible for standard residential or small commercial buildings. A group of 50kW plus chargers requires the appropriate local grid infrastructure which is expensive. I suspect it will be a while before we have the infrastructure that will be needed to support the electrification of the UK’s roads that seems to be envisaged.

Final lesson learnt - slipstreaming a big truck at 60 mph works wonders for your range but I really wouldn’t recommend it!

« Last Edit: December 16, 2020, 04:44:42 PM by silkman »

BeeKnees

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2077 on: December 16, 2020, 04:54:15 PM »
This is a really important point about why 7kW is likely to be the norm in the UK. 
Most buildings don't have three phase electricity connection to the grid that allows for more and over 22kW it is a specialist installation.  The price and ability to install higher powered chargers will be limited. 

There is currently a small market for supplying EV chargers, once chargers become congested then there is a market to supply more.  There is a decent profit in charging EV's and current fast chargers are up to ten times more expensive to use than home charging.

So to answer the challenge, yes I do think providers will opt for more 7Kw chargers in more bays to service more vehicles and that increasingly those vehicles will not be required to move to enable another car to charge.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2078 on: December 16, 2020, 05:18:05 PM »
Another missing part of this discussion is:  private car ownership needs in a few years will decrease as autonomous robotaxis take off — particularly in cities and dense housing areas where today the parking and charging are the most challenging.  One Tesla robotaxi could replace multiple private cars.  Not in all cases or all at once, of course.  Car sharing or rental will make more sense for those infrequent long trips.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2079 on: December 16, 2020, 06:13:32 PM »
Thanks, Silkman, for sharing your experience.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2080 on: December 17, 2020, 10:04:42 AM »
This is a really important point about why 7kW is likely to be the norm in the UK. 
Most buildings don't have three phase electricity connection to the grid that allows for more and over 22kW it is a specialist installation.  The price and ability to install higher powered chargers will be limited.

7kw is fine for home installations.  Until very recently UK homes had a 100Amp feed giving a total 23kw to the UK home.  However, in the drive to reduce consumption, it was lowered to 60A.

The power infrastructure to the vast majority of UK homes is capable of handling 23kw on single phase.

However on street is not "home" power even if it is on the outside of a building.  On street will be a new delivery of power infrastructure.

Yes it will need new substations and, potentially, even new cabling locally.  However that is the challenge, we are never going to deliver even 7kw without these changes.  So if we set the barrier low now, we will have to do it again in 25 years.

We might as well set the barrier correctly now and go forward from there.

But if we keep on minimalising our requirements now, we will deliver the wrong infrastructure for future use.

We should be building, now, for 100% pervasive deployment of EV and future use patterns.  Not holding back now and crippling the future. There has been far to much of that.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2081 on: December 17, 2020, 10:57:43 AM »

The power infrastructure to the vast majority of UK homes is capable of handling 23kw on single phase.

However on street is not "home" power even if it is on the outside of a building.  On street will be a new delivery of power infrastructure.

Yes it will need new substations and, potentially, even new cabling locally.  However that is the challenge, we are never going to deliver even 7kw without these changes.  So if we set the barrier low now, we will have to do it again in 25 years.

We might as well set the barrier correctly now and go forward from there.

But if we keep on minimalising our requirements now, we will deliver the wrong infrastructure for future use.

We should be building, now, for 100% pervasive deployment of EV and future use patterns.  Not holding back now and crippling the future. There has been far to much of that.

Are you suggesting shutting off all other power use while you charge your car, that's assuming you can import a single phase 22KW charge point as they are not available to buy in the UK.

These are your options regardless of what you think is theoretically possible
Single phase 16A   AC   3.7 kW   
Single phase 32A   AC   7.4 kW   
3 phase, 16A per phase   AC   11 kW   
3 phase, 32A per phase   AC   22 kW

The cost of changing the power supply would be huge as is the increased cost of more powerful chargepoints.  Overall we are talking about significant cost rises that would result in 10 high power chargers installed for the same cost as probably 50 that can run off the existing street infrastructure power and as a result fewer chargers and higher cost to use. 

Sorry but I am not sold in the slightest.  What you are arguing for is a slower rollout with fewer more expensive chargers that significantly limit the number of cars that can be plugged in, whilst I am advocating the opposite, a large number of chargers that enable all EV drivers to plug in at night/work, most of whom it will solely be a small top up rather than the need for a full recharge.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2082 on: December 17, 2020, 12:02:32 PM »
Exactly what BeeKnees said.
Calling for a minimum of 50kw for public chargers will only slow the rollout of ubiquitous slower chargers, which should be the goal.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2083 on: December 17, 2020, 12:57:30 PM »
Quote
The power infrastructure to the vast majority of UK homes is capable of handling 23kw on single phase.

So that 11kw, during the night, when everyone is in bed, is a viable solution.  It is even a viable solution in the evening after cooking is done and it is a viable solution in the early morning before getting up and using the vehicle. 

It is _not_ a viable solution here in France where the standard home 2 phase connection is 13.2kw.  Even 7kw is a real stretch.  Nothing better than 3.4kw is viable for my home here.

I never said that you could use 22kw on a home connection.  I said that the power infrastructure delivered to the vast majority of UK homes could support 23kw, giving more than 7kw if required.

I also said that on street power is a totally different connection.  It can be 3 phase because it is new and does not need to be tied to existing home power.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2084 on: December 17, 2020, 01:03:50 PM »
Exactly what BeeKnees said.
Calling for a minimum of 50kw for public chargers will only slow the rollout of ubiquitous slower chargers, which should be the goal.

Getting a bad reputation for being able to charge your vehicle will damage EV uptake far, far, more than a slightly slower roll out of 50kw stations.

I reiterate.  Even the 7kw infra will be new.  It will require upgrades to substations and it will require upgrades to street power supplies.  Because it is the same as adding 25%-50% new houses, at full load, on the same infra.

Why would you limit yourself when you are doing upgrades?  That is insanity when the UK has already made the significant commitment to going full EV in 10 years.

The UK is not and never was, about putting in crappy second rate infra to cut costs.  It is and always was, about building out the infrastructure required to meet the challenges of the future.

So we have to stop thinking minimalist infra when we are changing everything anyway.  Putting in 6x capacity to the substations and wiring now, when we are doing the work anyway, is Significantly cheaper than ripping out the crap we are putting in today and putting in new, all over again, in 25 years time, when we find that it simply doesn't cope.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2085 on: December 17, 2020, 01:22:48 PM »
So that 11kw, during the night, when everyone is in bed, is a viable solution.  It is even a viable solution in the evening after cooking is done and it is a viable solution in the early morning before getting up and using the vehicle. 

It is _not_ a viable solution here in France where the standard home 2 phase connection is 13.2kw.  Even 7kw is a real stretch.  Nothing better than 3.4kw is viable for my home here.

I never said that you could use 22kw on a home connection.  I said that the power infrastructure delivered to the vast majority of UK homes could support 23kw, giving more than 7kw if required.

I also said that on street power is a totally different connection.  It can be 3 phase because it is new and does not need to be tied to existing home power.

Chargers over 7kW are three phase so the argument is mute.  an 11kW charger is a 3.7kW over 3 phase.  We agree that the currently available 22kW charger isnt viable on a single phase (even if you could get one ) so it's a pointless argument.

Household demand from the grid has fallen by 25% due to improved efficency and the bulk of charging will occur when demand is otherwise low so I do not agree with your premise that existing infrastructure would need to be replaced to provide onstreet charging, improvement can occur during the normal replacement cycle rather than before being able to supply EV chargepoints.


The view of the national grid:
'if everyone in the UK switched to EVs overnight, peak demand would only increase by around 10 per cent.  This would be 'well within the range of manageable to load fluctuation'. 

« Last Edit: December 17, 2020, 01:31:31 PM by BeeKnees »

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2086 on: December 17, 2020, 03:44:28 PM »

The view of the national grid:
'if everyone in the UK switched to EVs overnight, peak demand would only increase by around 10 per cent.  This would be 'well within the range of manageable to load fluctuation'.

Were you factoring in the change from Gas to heat pump HVAC heating?

Quote
The admitted space heating demand is 125 kWh/m2/year, so for 200 m2 we would need 25,000 kWh per year.

Quote
Let’s take a look at heat pumps. Assuming you need 25,000 kW for heating with a heat pump that has a COP of 4.3, you would need 5,814 kWh electricity. With electricity prices of 13p/kWh, it would cost £756 per year for space heating.

https://www.greenmatch.co.uk/blog/2014/08/the-running-costs-of-heat-pumps#:~:text=The%20current%20tariff%20for%20air,pumps%20it%27s%2021.17p%2FkWh.&text=Due%20to%20the%20weather%20scenario,of%20%C2%A3970%20per%20year.

Now I don't care about the cost, but to heat water to 50C (60C is a LOT more), that adds 5.8mw of power consumption to each home of this size, per year, for heating and hot water.  Now let's look at those EV's, 19 miles per day, 3.5 miles per kw/h, 1.9mw per year.

Over and above that heating will be on, overnight, in winter, when you want to charge these cars.

Now, of course, the average UK home is 76sqm.

But here is a slightly different view again.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928350/2020_Energy_Consumption_in_the_UK__ECUK_.pdf

UK electricity consumption is just over 25mtoe.
UK gas consumption is just under 45mtoe.
UK petroleum consumption is just over 60mtoe.

Tell me again just how we are going to get away with a 10% upgrade on the electricity grid?

Granted I'm with you to a degree with the fact that EV's are more efficient and we can schedule the charging.

BUT.

If you think for one second that we are going to get away with some second hand retread of our UK electricity grid, for carbon neutral in 2050, when 75% of our mtoe energy consumption is fossil based and only 25% is electricity or other, you are going to have to think again.

The UK will have to transition 75% of its fossil consumption onto electric.  If we do not plan for the capacity to deliver it, then you can forget 2050 carbon neutral.  It is 30 years away and we expect to be virtually full EV on the roads by 25 years from now.

Even if we got a 3:1 boost via heat pump and EV efficiency, we would still have to double our power generation and transmission capacity.

Just when do you believe we should start planning for and delivering it?

As far as I know grid scale power under the ground is designed for a lifetime of over 30 years.
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Iain

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2087 on: December 17, 2020, 05:11:52 PM »
There are other strings to our bow:

Distributed, not centralised generation – Solar, Wind from factory / office / home roof/carpark to cars. Drive those kWHs home with you.
Electricity producing domestic “boilers” (Stirling engine) Heat is a waste product
Local storage. E.g. your car. With C. 4 days’ UK winter peak demand stored if we all had them with 90kW batteries each
H2 down the gas grid. Store a winter’s worth of H2 in the depleted Rough gas field
The grid / local network doesn’t see a single hopping electron in any of the above

Local network only:
Marine turbines offshore each town, cables up the estuary/river to substations

Grid + LN:
3kW charging from bedtime to alarm bell when everything else is off (Immersion, Kettle, oven are typ. 2 or 3kW) would be enough for most
Europe goes to bed 1 hour before us – import via interconnectors, pay them back in the morning. This works for all adjacent time zones from here to Vladivostok
Marine turbines supplying adjacent tidal zones
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2088 on: December 17, 2020, 06:00:44 PM »
There are other strings to our bow:

It’s true there’s a lot of technology out there that could in theory make it possible to decarbonise  but we always seem to overlook the basic problem in the UK which is our glorious stock of millions of ageing, drafty, poorly insulated houses. It’s a problem successive governments have failed to address (remember the old Green Deal?).

Quite frankly it’s laughable that we’re now talking of using air source heat pumps to provide space heating without first addressing the very basic problems of insulation, cold bridges and drafts.

It’s absolutely feasible to seal the average UK house and install mechanical ventilation and heat recovery to make it thermally efficient enough to allow the use of heat pumps but it isn’t cheap.

Whatever approach is taken over residential property in the UK over the next 30 years, the thermal efficiency of the housing stock needs to be addressed first. It’s a classic case of too much focus on the supply side and lack of interest in reducing demand.

Finally, district heating driven by local, power generating biomass plants has a role to play. This is another relatively simple approach that had some legs a decade ago but seems to have been overlooked more recently.


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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2089 on: December 17, 2020, 06:39:27 PM »
There was once a concept of having 'all' EVs plugged in when not being driven so that their batteries could be part of the storage infrastructure, and would get 'charged enough by a set time' for the next planned use.  Has that idea gone out the window?

Will solid-state batteries change the functional kw needs of charging outlets?  Will 5-minute 0-100% battery charging (at charging stations) remove the need for overnight charging for apartment dwellers?  Will 'cheep' autopiloted "taxis" do the same thing?

Infrastructure development for 2022 and 2023 needs to be planned as soon as possible, for sure.  Will the infrastructure needs for 2025 (or whenever the next transformational technology goes public) be in line with our needs 'now'?  How do we plan for both known emerging technologies and projected future technologies, without wasting resources needlessly today.  ("When controlled fusion power become available home insulation won't be an issue, 'cause power will be 'too cheep to meter'."  But where have I heard that argument before!) ["Needs", of course is a term wrapped up in cultural connotations that ignore actual human needs 'elsewhere' and Earth's needs 'everywhere'. ]
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2090 on: December 17, 2020, 07:19:42 PM »
Current cost projections for EV battery packs have them reaching parity with ICEs by 2023 and being half their current cost by 2030.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Falling-Battery-Costs-To-Help-EV-Prices-Match-ICE-Vehicles-in-2023.html

Quote
Falling Battery Costs To Help EV Prices Match ICE Vehicles in 2023
By Charles Kennedy - Dec 16, 2020

Electric vehicles (EVs) are set to erase the current price advantage of conventional cars when battery pack prices drop to $100 per kilowatt-hour in 2023, BNEF’s new 2020 Battery Price Survey showed on Wednesday.

Quote
In its 2020 Battery Price Survey, BNEF now sees battery pack prices reaching the $100/kWh milestone in 2023, while the current battery price is at an average $126/kWh.

“Our analysis shows that even if prices for raw materials were to return to the highs seen in 2018, it would only delay average prices reaching $100/kWh by two years -- rather than completely derailing the industry,” James Frith, lead author of the report and BNEF’s head of energy storage research, says.

By 2030, the price of battery packs will more than halve compared to current prices and are set to average $58/kWh, BNEF predicts in its new report. This drop in prices could also be supported by mass production of solid-state batteries, which BNEF sees costing 40 percent of the cost to make lithium-ion batteries. 

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2091 on: December 17, 2020, 08:22:02 PM »
Quote
stevenmarkryan:
Today Toyota officially announced their plans to go bankrupt before 2030.
Slow clap
TL;DR - "It's going to be difficult and expensive so we'd prefer to be out of business within a decade"
Source: wsj.com/articles/toyot… 
https://twitter.com/stevenmarkryan/status/1339622480173035521

Toyota’s Chief Says Electric Vehicles Are Overhyped
Quote
Toyota Motor Corp.’s chief criticized what he described as extreme hype over electrical autos, saying advocates failed to contemplate the carbon emitted by producing electrical energy and the prices of an EV transition.

Toyota President Akio Toyod stated Japan would run out of electrical energy in the summertime if all vehicles had been working on electrical energy. The infrastructure wanted to help a fleet consisting solely of EVs would value Japan between ¥14 trillion and ¥37 trillion, the equal of $135 billion to $358 billion, he stated.

“When politicians are on the market saying, ‘Let’s eliminate all vehicles utilizing gasoline,’ do they perceive this?” Mr. Toyoda stated Thursday at a year-end information convention in his capability as chairman of the Japan Car Producers Affiliation.

He stated if Japan is simply too hasty in banning gasoline-powered vehicles, “the present enterprise mannequin of the automotive trade goes to break down,” inflicting the lack of tens of millions of jobs. …
https://www.onlineev.com/2020/12/17/toyotas-chief-says-electric-vehicles-are-overhyped/
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BeeKnees

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2092 on: December 17, 2020, 09:04:38 PM »

Were you factoring in the change from Gas to heat pump HVAC heating?

But here is a slightly different view again.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928350/2020_Energy_Consumption_in_the_UK__ECUK_.pdf

UK electricity consumption is just over 25mtoe.
UK gas consumption is just under 45mtoe.
UK petroleum consumption is just over 60mtoe.

Tell me again just how we are going to get away with a 10% upgrade on the electricity grid?

Granted I'm with you to a degree with the fact that EV's are more efficient and we can schedule the charging.

BUT.

If you think for one second that we are going to get away with some second hand retread of our UK electricity grid, for carbon neutral in 2050, when 75% of our mtoe energy consumption is fossil based and only 25% is electricity or other, you are going to have to think again.we expect to be virtually full EV on the roads by 25 years from now.

Lets not scare ourselves by the inefficencies of fossil fuels or make false assumptions that everyone will be charging their car and running their heating all night.  Nor should we scaremonger that the grid is so past it that it needs a full replacement.

Our peak demand has fallen from 62GW to 46GW over the last 15 years so we know the it can handle a 10% increase to 51GW for EVs with very little stress.  Beyond this the maximum the grid can handle according to the National grid themselves is 80GW so this aging infrastructure aint too shabby.

Next we need to accept that the priority now based on government policy is the take up of EVs, they have scrapped the commitment to ban gas boilers for the forseeable so the rise in demand from heat pumps is not yet on the horizon.

Thirdly we should take on board the comments from Iain, Tor and Silkman regarding storage, insulation  and efficencies .
V2G and other smart grid technology will play a part
https://www.octopusev.com/powerloop

Finally I think the modelling done by the national grid tells us that they know what they are doing , they do not see us reaching the historic high demand from 15 years ago within the next 15 years even with an aggressive EV and home energy decarbonisation. 

So the idea we have to delay the roll out of EV chargers now for improvements to the grid that will be targetted at net zero by 2050 just doesnt add up.


On the EV front, I was speaking to our fleet manager today and they have stopped taking diesels and are replacing them with EVs.  Also a large number of employees who previously had a company car are handing them back and registering their second car for car allowance.  With the need to visit customers and offices reduced, many no longer see the need for them and their partner to have two cars.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2020, 09:12:13 PM by BeeKnees »

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2093 on: December 18, 2020, 11:52:23 AM »
So the idea we have to delay the roll out of EV chargers now for improvements to the grid that will be targetted at net zero by 2050 just doesnt add up.

I'm not scaremongering and I'm not saying delay anything.

I'm saying do it RIGHT first time and make sure that the choice to go EV is the right choice and easy to make.  Is this so hard to understand?

Making poor assumptions and putting in poor infrastructure, at a time when infrastructure must be built and replaced anyway; is not helping anyone.

There was a time when 25kwh was championed as a solution which would be "enough" for 95% of the population.

Who is building 25kwh cars now?   We do not have time to learn these lessons, over and over again.  We need to do it right first time and that first time is Now.

So 7kw chargers?  They are our 25kwh battery of today.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2094 on: December 18, 2020, 01:23:02 PM »
Neil, can you state what you think is the problem with the Grid – in preceding posts it looked (to me) that you think the grid needs greater than 10% increase in capacity to accommodate us all driving EVs

I don’t think that is the case

For your place in France:
You can easily add kW capacity on the house side (your meter sees no incoming, so it’s not limited) with a DIY plug in solar installation.  I did.

A Leaf driving an average of 7880 mi / year (150 mi / week) would need 42 kWh/week. Charging at 3kW for 9h from 10pm to 7am is 189kWh/week – ample.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2095 on: December 18, 2020, 04:13:24 PM »
Ian, my problem with the grid is not the % capacity upgrade.  We can do that if we really want to.  It is the last 5 miles to the street to provide a charging infrastructure.

Note, I'm not talking about home chargers or places where people have their own on street parking tied to their house.  I'm talking about the majority of other vehicles which do not.

It is about capacity planning and delivering infrastructure to meet it.

Planning capacity at 7kw, for the majority of public chargers, in my estimation, is very poor planning.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2096 on: December 18, 2020, 04:16:33 PM »

I'm not scaremongering and I'm not saying delay anything.

I'm saying do it RIGHT first time and make sure that the choice to go EV is the right choice and easy to make.  Is this so hard to understand?

Making poor assumptions and putting in poor infrastructure, at a time when infrastructure must be built and replaced anyway; is not helping anyone.

You are saying delay.  The amount of time, effort and cost involved in upgrading a grid that can already handle charging EVs would result in delay, fewer chargers available and an increase in the cost of charging.  The national  grid isnt something you can upgrade overnight and there is no need to force areas to wait to upgrade before they can have an EV, if upgrades are required at a local area then they will be carried out with the future in mind, no one is arguing for poor infrastructure.

7kW isnt our 25kWh of yesterday, if you'd said 3.7kW I would agree with you as it's barely more than a plug and not capable of charging an EV overnight from near empty (which the vast majority wont remotely need by the way).  7kW is our most cost effective way of reaching the masses and also more than adequate to charge any car overnight sufficiently for the next day. 

What will turn off people more than anything else is cost of charging and not having sufficient chargers at home or where they park, not that when they went to work in the morning the car was charged by 2am rather than 5am. 


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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2097 on: December 18, 2020, 04:33:01 PM »
We'll have to agree to differ.

I don't see delay in putting in higher capacity local cabling and uprating local sub-stations, which will need upgrading anyway, with a higher capacity.

You don't see that putting in low capacity everything today will create a critical logjam just as we are ramping up to the highest levels of EV capacity.

Looking at different issues and solutions and seeing them in different ways.  You assume that delivering the infrastructure for the future today will slow things down.  I don't.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2098 on: December 18, 2020, 05:05:47 PM »
We'll have to agree to differ.

I don't see delay in putting in higher capacity local cabling and uprating local sub-stations, which will need upgrading anyway, with a higher capacity.

You don't see that putting in low capacity everything today will create a critical logjam just as we are ramping up to the highest levels of EV capacity.

Looking at different issues and solutions and seeing them in different ways.  You assume that delivering the infrastructure for the future today will slow things down.  I don't.

How long do you think it will take to upgrade all streets without off street parking so they can handle a charger in every parking space at 50kW? 
Even if future battery packs went to 200kWh, how many of those EVs would require charging from zero overnight?
Would it actually change how many miles are travelled and therefore the amount of charge required?
With smart management then even cars that need significant charging would be charged at slower rates over the course of the night rather than charging at peak when demand is high, whilst other cars support the local grid because the owners didn't go out that day and are happy to have 60% charge in the morning. 

I think we are so diametrically opposed in our vision of what is to come that we just dont understand the others argument. 

Am I right to assume that your view is that there would be limited charge points and people will need to change spaces in order to charge? 
My expectation is evolution rather than revolution with numbers growing over time, an upgrade to capacity would not make slower chargers obsolete, they would still be more than adequate for the vast majority who do only a few miles everyday. 

This is of course making the assumption that the whole grid needs replacing to handle the increased demand, something I am yet to hear from any credible source.

Here is the national grids expectations for 2050
https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/173821/download

Page 21 shows the change in annual electricity demand if we really go for it.  An increase from 250TWh today to 400TWh.  In 2005 the uk electricity demand was 385TWh.

But still page 57 tells us the risk if we just go electrify everything that will push peak demand 50% higher than today. 
Page 107 shows the affect of heat pumps ( extra 20-30GW on todays peak )
Page 109 EVs (Extra 20GW if uncontrolled with smart charging and V2G or a net reduction in peak demand of 10GW if V2G is embraced)
« Last Edit: December 18, 2020, 11:43:48 PM by BeeKnees »

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #2099 on: December 18, 2020, 07:45:26 PM »
I too find I simply are not understanding Neils argument.
Using the UK example about 25% of cars do not have off street parking so will need to be provided with some sort of public infrastructure to charge.
As already established 7kW would supply enough charge in 1/3 of a day for the average weekly use.
This would require about one 7kW charger @16 amps 240 volts for every fourteen or so long term car parks used by those with no access to off street parking . You would use price to allow the market to insure people simply do not hog chargeing parks  unnecessarily. Something like a higher rate to park alongside a charger with out actually using it.    For those with off street parking even 10Amp240 Volts  is plenty to run an electric car just means you will need to plug in overnight every  couple of days .
Two different issues.
This is a separate topic from what is required for long distance travel.
Which would need 150kW chargers along all major roads each 25 to 50 miles.
This is something that is already being rolled out .
Even my little town on state highway one NZ is getting a 200kW charger this year.

I see a need for three charging capacity's.
Sufficient  7 kW chargers at public parking spaces for those with no access to private parking .
Grazing around 50kW at locations like malls , supermarkets and gyms  so you can top up while going about your business.
Distance travel   150 kW every 25 to 50 miles  along major roads.


 

Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.