Electric cars

[Sigmetnow]

Stellantis cuts 2024 profit outlook as US sales crisis deepens
September 30, 2024

PARIS, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Stellantis cut its 2024 profit forecast on Monday and warned it will burn through more cash than expected as Europe's No.2 carmaker pledged to reduce output and offer big discounts to revive its U.S. business, wiping billions of its market value.
 
The world's fourth biggest automaker by sales said it was facing weakening global demand and stiff competition from China, echoing similar comments from rivals, including Volkswagen  which cut its annual profit outlook on Friday.
 
"Competitive dynamics have intensified due to both rising industry supply, as well as increased Chinese competition," Stellantis said in its guidance.
 
It said instead of positive cash flow, it now expects negative cash flow of between 5 billion and 10 billion euros ($5.58-$11.17 billion).
Italian brokers Equita and Akros said that puts the automaker's dividend and share buyback programmes at risk. Stellantis said it would make no further comment beyond its guidance on Monday.
 
The company also said it now expects an adjusted operating profit margin of between 5.5% and 7% this year, down from the double-digit forecast that investors have come to expect from the automaker because of its lucrative U.S. business.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/stellantis-revises-guidance-downward-citing-performance-issues-industry-dynamics-2024-09-30/

 
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The latest ranking of auto groups’ digital performance from consultancy Gartner shows that Toyota, VW & General Motors have fallen further behind Tesla and Chinese rivals in developing critical software to power their vehicles. Tesla is ranked #1.
 
Only three legacy carmakers — Ford, GM and BMW — make it to the top 10 while the rest are dominated by Nio, Xpeng and BYD from China and US start-ups including Tesla, Rivian and Lucid.
9/23/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1838238105343565988
 
Toyota and VW fall further behind in the software race
Legacy carmakers have struggled to keep pace as the focus has turned from the engine to computing power
 
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/7e5677b8-87fa-41fa-8648-9009ac7f14fc?accessToken=zwAGIsvGRbMQkc9-Vne4h_pB-tOGSJAJrH8U_A.MEYCIQD0ddtDppMcdmmyrpTbyRTCitHq14hMjbwsqKbFf9SSvwIhAP6lgVajG0--re4odwdZeNcVRQW1qkMbME_N7xxaq6t2&sharetype=gift&token=c1267cba-0a0f-420d-a2d6-acc64c3855c4

 
—-
NEWS: The BYD Seagull EV sold 46,830 cars in August in China, making it the country’s best-selling vehicle regardless of power source. It starts around $10k. It's the size of Chevy Bolt EV, has four doors and a 30 kWh battery with 190 miles of WLTP range.
insideevs.com/news/734623/by…  https://t.co/L7zOG5qbhQ
 
9/20/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1837219509502914629

 
—-
NEWS: Tesla Korea has entered the certification process to sell the Cybertruck in South Korea, according to the Korea Transportation Safety Agency.
 
"Various vehicles such as vehicles imported directly by individuals or companies come to KATRI for certification, and in the case of this Cybertruck, the seller (Tesla) is in process for direct certification."
 
Source: https://www.bloter.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=623750
 
9/26/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1839320561555562691

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Tesla Asia
Exported the 1 millionth EV from Giga Shanghai⚡️
9/28/24, https://x.com/tesla_asia/status/1839951452829356385
⬇️ pic below

[John_the_Younger]

What does that last group of 40 Teslas represent in the photo (mixed white and colored cars), after the "1" and"M"?

[Sigmetnow]

What does that last group of 40 Teslas represent in the photo (mixed white and colored cars), after the "1" and"M"?

I wish I knew!  It doesn’t resemble any Chinese character I can find. 
Unless the matrix translates to something digitally, it may simply mean, “These are the rest of the cars we haven’t loaded yet.”

[zenith]

Worlds First Log Haul with a Diesel Electric Truck!

[Sigmetnow]

Category 4 Hurricane Milton is about to rip across Florida.

Tesla Charging
 
Charging preparations ahead of Hurricane Milton:
 
→ If charging at home, charge to 100%.
 
→ Live status and availability of Superchargers are in the vehicle's touchscreen or the Tesla App.
 
→ Access types for other EVs are on the Find Us map.
 
https://www.tesla.com/findus?v=2&search=Florida, USA&bounds=32.08795422144835,-74.6767642421875,23.72076670394778,-89.9587466640625&zoom=7&filters=supercharger,nacs,party
 
→ Pre-hurricane, we are focused on uptime of Superchargers. Post-hurricane, we will be focused on restoration and are prepared to deploy mobile Superchargers powered by Megapacks where access to charging is most impacted.

10/7/24, https://x.com/teslacharging/status/1843425572698943902

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“Officials in Tampa freed all city garages to residents hoping to protect their cars from flooding, including electric vehicles. The vehicles must be left on the third floor or higher in each garage.”

[NeilT]

Latest estimated track has Tampa out of the eye.

DeSantis is trained in preparing for this kind incident and the preparation for the post storm response.  We shall see how that goes.

[gerontocrat]

Sept 2024 US new LDV sales from Argonne National Laboratory

A somewhat weak sales month for US LDV sales

- total LDV sales 1.17 million, 12.8% below Sept 2023, and lowest since January 2024

- pure BEV sales 104 thousand, down 8% on Sept 2023, but due to low totral LDV sales, at a new record high of 8.9% of total LDV sales.

- PHEV sales at 18 thousand down 36% on Sept 2023. Maybe PHEVs are losing their appeal.

- HEV sales of 124 thousand up 13.4 %, but a far lower growth rate than in recent months. Note: HEVs are fossil-fuel powered.

- Pure ICEV sales of 0.92 million down 15.3% from Sept 2023, again the lowest since Jan 2024. The percentage drop is the highest since Aug 2022.

- ICEV+HEV sales of 1.05 million down 12.7% from Sept 2023. The percentage drop is the highest since May2022.

So what I we looking at?
US consumers temporarily reluctant to buy any sort of vehicle?

I still believe the transition to EVs will take place - but somewhat slowly.

click images to enlarge

[Sigmetnow]

—- U.S —-
 
U.S. EV sales are projected to hit a record high in Q3 2024, according to new data from Cox Automotive. EV sales now make up nearly 9% of all auto sales in the U.S., also a record high.
9/26/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1839371221399707894
⬇️ Graph below

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Hyundai has begun producing electric SUVs at its $7.6 billion plant in Georgia
During the first half of 2024, the Ioniq 5 was America’s second-best-selling electric vehicle not made by industry leader Tesla.
Mon, October 7, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hyundai-begun-producing-electric-suvs-204536527.html

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The $35,000 [GM] Chevrolet Equinox EV LT Is Here
The entry level Chevy Equinox EV LT has begun arriving at dealerships. With tax credits, you can grab one for as low as $27,000 — making it the least expensive new EV on sale in the U.S. with over 300 miles of range.
• Starting price: $27,495 (including $7,500 Fed EV credit)
• EPA range: 319 miles
• FWD
• 150 kW peak charging speed
• Car length: 190" (vs 187" for Model Y)
https://insideevs.com/news/735628/2025-chevy-equinox-ev-lt/

—-
Nice!  Free charger and “standard” installation from Ford.
 
Jim Farley
Auto shoppers say they're more likely to buy an electric vehicle if they could fill up at home. So we’re going to make it easy for our customers. If you buy or lease a new @Ford electric vehicle, we’ll include a complimentary home charger. This is part of something we’re calling the Ford Power Promise, which is about giving our electric vehicle customers convenience, peace of mind and expert service. I explain more about the #FordPowerPromise here:
 
Ford Has a Better Idea: Buy an Electric Vehicle and ‘Fill ’Er Up’ at Home
https://x.com/jimfarley98/status/1840723902168797325

—-
Ford's Newest Problem Is Frightening
September 28, 2024
The Alliance for American Manufacturing went as far to warn that the Chinese EVs pose a potentially "extinction-level event" for the U.S. EV industry.

Winter is coming to the automotive industry. Except winter in this instance isn't the approaching weather, or zombies, it's the coming onslaught of highly subsidized, innovative, affordable, and well-received Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). Investors have likely heard about the U.S. planning its 100% tariff on imported Chinese EVs, but what you might not know is that the tariff may not matter, and that's a problem for many automakers, particularly Ford Motor Company -- here's why.
 
Much has been made of Ford's dive into the EV market. On one hand, the company's Mustang Mach-E, F-150 Lightning, and E-Transit have driven the company to the No. 2 spot in U.S. EV sales behind Tesla. On the other hand, it's also true that through the first half of 2024, the company has lost nearly $2.5 billion in its Model e division.
 
Furthermore, although Ford's EV sales spiked 61% during Q2 with nearly 24,000 EVs sold, Ford's Model e EBIT margin was a 99.5% loss for the second quarter. Ford has taken many steps to delay EVs, refocus on hybrids, cancel an upcoming line of EV SUVs, downsize battery plant plans, and ultimately has pushed back on roughly $12 billion of EV investments.
 
The biggest takeaway, however, was that Ford announced it made a secret bet sometime ago with a "skunkworks" team to develop a low-cost EV platform with a target price around $25,000 -- a sales point sure to rope in mainstream consumers and put them in an EV. The rumored launch date is in 2026.
 
Here's the problem: That $25,000 would have little to no competition in the U.S. right now, but some Chinese EVs can hit that price point and tariffs might not be enough to stop it, if BYD is any indication. …

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fords-newest-problem-frightening-100500878.html

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NEWS: Lucid delivered 2,781 cars in Q3, up 90% YoY. They produced 1,805 cars during the same period.
10/7/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1843302749603315898

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Rivian has paused construction of its Georgia factory after moving initial R2 production to the company’s Illinois facility, slated to begin in 2026.
Rivian Delays Start of Production at New Georgia Plant to Q4 2028
https://eletric-vehicles.com/rivian/rivian-delays-start-of-production-at-new-georgia-plant-to-q4-2028/

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The lower-priced, non-FoundationSeries Tesla Cybertruck (CT) will dominate both the EV & ICE truck market.
Because most CTs will qualify for the $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit, and ICE pickups don’t.
 
10/4/24, https://x.com/niccruzpatane/status/1842258453034905970
⬇️ Truck price chart below.

[Sigmetnow]

—- Europe —-
 
Porsche recalls over 27,000 BEVs in the 🇺🇸 USA due to short circuit risk in the battery, says NHTSA
10/8/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1843633873021731079

—-

Alex @alex_avoigt
 
Leaked VW Meeting Report: VW Management says Sickness Rate Higher than Ever Costs 1 Billion €
 
The Whattsapp message which was leaked was apparently written by a member of the VW works council, presumably from Wolfsburg, and apparently quotes content from a meeting in the ‘IG Metall’ organisation.
 
According to the message, VW management is complaining about the high sickness rate, which is ‘higher than ever before’. This is now costing the company ‘around one billion euros’ (presumably per year).
 
Due to "unplanned absences", 28,500 vehicles were not produced, which corresponds to "a loss of 200 million euros", the report states.
 
This is not officially confirmed, but it should be noted that the leaked news reported from VW meetings is usually found to be correct in retrospect 

10/13/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1845479439645163869
 
   —-

Alex @alex_avoigt
 
100 Million € Salaries paid in 2023 to former VW Managers
 
Matthias Müller: €2 million
Martin Winterkorn: €1.35 million
Herbert Diess: €12.8 million
Markus Duesmann: €1.9 million
 
Winterkorn is currently on trial for the diesel scandal (postponed again due to a fractured neck of femur in the shower) and even the former VW CEO Stadler, who was sentenced to prison for his wrongdoing with cheating devices, received compensation for the last year.
 
In 2023 the VW Group paid a total of €100 million to former managers.

10/13/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1845482190047465974

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AJ @alojoh
 
VW Group's sales in Germany appear to be dropping below 250K soon (rolling 3-months). This includes all of VW's brands: Volkswagen, Audi, Skoda, Porsche, Seat, etc.
10/8/24, https://x.com/alojoh/status/1843710491056845142
⬇️ Graph

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AJ @alojoh
 
Mercedes sales clearly trend down in Germany.
10/8/24, https://x.com/alojoh/status/1843695657552621682
⬇️ Graph

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NEWS: Porsche Taycan sales are down 50% globally through the first nine months of 2024.
14,042 have been sold from January through September. 
 
Porsche Taycan Sales Have Fallen Off a Cliff
https://www.motor1.com/news/737086/porsche-taycan-global-sales/

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AJ @alojoh
 
This is a review of major automakers' recent profit warnings.
Of the 4 shown automakers, the combined 2024 cash flow reduction amounts to at least $16 billion!
Amongst these companies, VW/Merc/BMW expect to remain full-year cash flow positive. 
3 out of 4 mention China or Chinese competition as a primary reason for the outlook revision.   
I expect guidance revisions won't be limited to these four automakers.

10/8/24, https://x.com/alojoh/status/1843732149528342906
⬇️ Profit warnings table

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Stellantis cuts 2024 profit outlook as US sales crisis deepens
September 30, 2024

PARIS, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Stellantis cut its 2024 profit forecast on Monday and warned it will burn through more cash than expected as Europe's No.2 carmaker pledged to reduce output and offer big discounts to revive its U.S. business, wiping billions of its market value.
 
The world's fourth biggest automaker by sales said it was facing weakening global demand and stiff competition from China, echoing similar comments from rivals, including Volkswagen  which cut its annual profit outlook on Friday.
 
"Competitive dynamics have intensified due to both rising industry supply, as well as increased Chinese competition," Stellantis said in its guidance.
 
It said instead of positive cash flow, it now expects negative cash flow of between 5 billion and 10 billion euros ($5.58-$11.17 billion).
Italian brokers Equita and Akros said that puts the automaker's dividend and share buyback programmes at risk. Stellantis said it would make no further comment beyond its guidance on Monday.
 
The company also said it now expects an adjusted operating profit margin of between 5.5% and 7% this year, down from the double-digit forecast that investors have come to expect from the automaker because of its lucrative U.S. business.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/stellantis-revises-guidance-downward-citing-performance-issues-industry-dynamics-2024-09-30/

[kiwichick16]

EV sales up 30 % in September ........some slow down 

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/global-ev-sales-up-305-september-china-shines-europe-recuperates-2024-10-14/

[Freegrass]

Update on battery swapping. I used to think it was the perfect solution, but then people here on this forum convinced me that it was a bad idea. Now it turns out it's taking off. People love it. And what's not to love?

[Sigmetnow]

Update on battery swapping. I used to think it was the perfect solution, but then people here on this forum convinced me that it was a bad idea. Now it turns out it's taking off. People love it. And what's not to love?

 
One problem:  batteries are expensive and supply can be tight — but you need to have all those extras to stock at the charging stations.
 
NIO has started offering their latest car with the battery included.

[Sigmetnow]

BMW CEO: Europe must cancel petrol engine ban to reduce reliance on China
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bmw-ceo-says-europe-must-075228736.html

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Audi cannot find an investor for its Brussels plant
Audi has not found a suitable investor for its factory in Brussels, increasing the risk of a plant closure. VW has also been searching internally for further utilisation - but to no avail.

The successor to the Q8 e-tron will be manufactured in Mexico, and Audi will not award any new models to the Belgian plant. As some German sites within the VW Group are now also on the brink of collapse, the chances for Brussels – even with another Group brand – have diminished further.
 
Brussels could now become the first VW plant in Europe to be closed. According to Ronny Liedts, the negotiator responsible for the ACV-CSC union at the plant, it is likely that around 3,000 factory workers will lose their jobs. Liedts also criticised Audi. “The only thing they want to do is close the plant as quickly as possible. None of the alternatives work for them,” he said. …

https://www.electrive.com/2024/10/16/audi-cannot-find-an-investor-for-its-brussels-plant/

—-
The EU is sticking to its plan to ban the sale of new petrol-driven cars starting in 2035, despite heavy pressure from legacy automakers to ease rules.
 
Except for Renault, all major European automakers have issued profit warnings this year. VW is considering shutting plants in Germany for the first time in its 87-year history, it said last month.
10/16/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1846477472566747333

When your company is struggling, it’s convenient to blame it on the EU ban.  But even if it were lifted, OEMs are well aware that ICE sales are shrinking and their ICE assets are rapidly becoming next to worthless.

—-
NEWS: Stellantis reported their Q3 delivery numbers today, and their North American sales are down by a whopping -36% YoY, while their overall global sales are down -20% YoY.
https://www.stellantis.com/en/news/press-releases/2024/october/stellantis-reports-q3-2024-consolidated-shipment-estimates
 
    —-
Noted: Stellantis Chairman John Elkann hanging around the Tesla “We, Robot” venue, long after party was over.
(Perhaps he is considering licensing FSD for US models?)
From: 10/12/24, https://x.com/chriszheng001/status/1845124723941965890
 
—-
NEWS: Nissan has announced that their EVs will officially get access to over 18,000 Tesla Superchargers throughout North America this quarter (Q4 2024), improving the charging experience for every Nissan EV owner.
 
"Starting later this year Nissan will make available to Ariya drivers a North American Charging Standard (NACS) adapter. This adapter will allow Ariya drivers to conveniently charge at compatible Tesla Supercharger locations – dramatically increasing the number of public charging locations available to Ariya. In 2025, Nissan will begin offering EVs for the U.S. and Canadian markets with a NACS port."
 
Source: https://usa.nissannews.com/en-US/releases/new-nissan-energy-charge-network-simplifies-ev-charging-on-the-go

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Fiat USA has provided a free advertisement for the Tesla Cybertruck in a new commercial for its all-new 2024 Fiat 500e EV.
10/14/24, ➡️ https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1845879020115972332
 30 sec. 😂 Cute ad.

—-
NIO is betting the company on the L60, a lower-price knock-off of the Model Y
9/23/24, https://x.com/ray4tesla/status/1838253732049588448

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NEWS: Lucid has announced a public offering of 262.4M shares of Common Stock.
The Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) will also acquire an additional 374.7 million shares to maintain its 58.8% ownership stake in Lucid.
Lucid stock is -10% after-hours on the news.
Source: ir.lucidmotors.com/news-releases/…
10/16/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1846658790319706429

—-

This is quite wild: Faraday Future lost $4.1B since inception and generated in the most recent quarter $293,000 in revenue. This number is not in thousands, not in million, no, it's literally "two hundred ninety-three thousand dollars".
 
What makes this case even crazier is the fact that for their massive >$4B spend they don't even have a meaningful factory! You can see in their balance sheet that "Property, plant, equipment" amounts to only $377M.
…

9/23/24, https://x.com/alojoh/status/1838291398216560961
Pic of car, and data at the link.

[Sigmetnow]

—- Tesla, and trucks
 
NEWS: Over 100,000 Teslas are now registered in the Netherlands. Tesla was the best selling brand in September.
10/18/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1847297271366610997
 
—-
 NEWS: 75,000 Teslas are now on the roads in Denmark.
We delivered ~3,400 of these vehicles in Q3 ⚡️ …
10/7/24, https://x.com/philippowerss/status/1843182356393562520

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Tesla Model Y Is Turkey’s 4th Best-Selling Car & Top EV in September
October 17, 2024
Tesla Model Y accounted for 25.9%. TOGG T10X came in second, selling 2,200 units. MINI Countryman came in third with 551 units, while BMW iX1 came in fourth with 513 units. Mercedes-Benz EQB closed out the top 5 with 463 units.
https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-model-y-is-turkeys-4th-best-selling-car-top-ev-in-september/

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Tesla Model Y Was UK’s 4th Best-Selling Car in September
It was the only EV on the top 10 best-selling cars list.
BEVs held a share of 17.8%, PHEVs 8.3%, and HEVs took 13.7%.
https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-model-y-was-uks-4th-best-selling-car-in-september/
   —-
NEWS: Tesla has discontinued the Model Y RWD in the UK and replaced it with the Model Y RWD Long Range.
10/4/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1842055198715609141

—-
GigaBerlin produced the 400,000th #ModelY at the end of September 2024.
Great achievement,
made in Germany.
handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/in…
10/8/24, https://x.com/gf4tesla/status/1843641394797453747

—-
NEWS: Tesla has officially received approval to proceed with the first stage of its Giga Berlin expansion plans, which will see the facility’s production capacity more than double to 1M cars/year, making it the largest automotive factory in the country.
https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-secures-approval-for-first-stage-of-giga-berlin-expansion/
 
   —-
Tesla Manufacturing
Special Guest at Giga Berlin
10/15/24, ➡️ https://x.com/gigafactories/status/1846216380254687648
1 min. Two Tesla Semis on display at Giga Berlin. Info from “Dan, Semi Truck Engineering”
“There’s an obvious amount of passion and excitement for having the Semi over here in Europe.”
“It’s clear there’s a huge amount of potential for the product from the market, but also an equal amount of enthusiasm here at Giga Berlin for the Semi.”
 
Elon Musk
Tesla Semi will be available worldwide
10/15/24, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1846230339070398639

—-

The 🇩🇪  German company Liebherr has signed the largest order in the company's 75-year history and will supply 475 electric mining machines to the 🇦🇺🦘 Australian mining company Fortescue.
 
It is a ‘historic deal’ and the largest in the company's 75-year history, Liebherr announced on signing the billion-dollar order. The contract between Liebherr and Fortescue is worth 2.8 billion dollars and comprises 475 Liebherr machines - including 360 autonomous battery-powered giant dump trucks. They are to be used in mines in Australia.
 
The dump truck is the result of ‘years of hard work and collaboration between Liebherr and Fortescue in the areas of autonomy and zero emissions’, Liebherr added. The dump truck is equipped with a battery electric drive system developed by Fortescue's technology division Fortescue Zero.
 
Fortescue also developed the fast-charging solution for the electric giant. The charging system can supply up to six megawatts of electricity, meaning that the giant dump truck, named T 264, can be charged in just 30 minutes, according to the press release.

10/4/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1842127206425698591
⬇️  Pic below. 😲

—- Nikola lays off 15% of workforce
October 11, 2024
The company previously laid off 270 employees in June 2023 and 100 in November 2022.

Nikola sold 88 fuel cell electric trucks at wholesale in the third quarter, bringing to 235 the total of the alternative fuel vehicles sold since production began in 2023.
 
But Nikola’s costs of making and selling the Class 8 Tre cabover trucks – estimated at more than $1 million each – far outstripped the $380,000 in revenue per copy. …

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/numbers-nikola-150000920.html

[Sigmetnow]

—- US / Batteries / Charging
 
NEWS: The U.S. government has issued $2 billion in point-of-sale consumer EV tax credit payments since January 1, 2024, covering more than 300,000 vehicles.
 
Breakdown:
• 250,000 tax credits issued for new EVs
• 50,000 for used EVs 
 
U.S. issues $2 billion electric vehicle tax rebates since Jan. 1, Treasury says
https://www.autonews.com/mobility-report/us-issues-2-billion-electric-vehicle-tax-rebates-jan-1

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Commentary: Where the 2024 election is a fight over cars
October 8, 2024

Inflation, immigration, and abortion are the top issues for many voters, but in the key swing state of Michigan, the biggest political fault line may be the future of the car industry. Vice President Kamala Harris says electric vehicles are a part of the future, while former President Donald Trump says they’ll doom the whole industry. The candidate who wins the auto vote in Michigan, and perhaps Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, could end up making momentous decisions determining what kinds of cars those workers will build for years to come.
This is more than rhetorical wrangling. …

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/commentary-where-the-2024-election-is-a-fight-over-cars-155631378.html

—-
Tesla has discontinued the base Model 3 RWD in the U.S.
The preexisting Model 3 Long Range RWD is now the entry level trim. It comes with 363 miles of range and starts at $34,990 (including fed EV credit).
10/1/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1841275435797430644
   —-
This means that Tesla now no longer sells any cars in the U.S. that use a Chinese LFP battery.
   —-
A few days ago, the Biden administration raised tariffs on Chinese EVs imported to the U.S. to 100% (from 25%) and on lithium-ion batteries and battery parts to 25% (from 7.5%).
 
While the Model 3 RWD was built in California, it used a Chinese LFP battery, so it didn't quality for the $7,500 Fed EV credit. The 363 mile range Model 3 Long Range RWD did, so most people likely opted for that trim instead. Combine these two factors and this is why Tesla discontinued the Model 3 RWD.
10/1/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1841278553427472516
 
—-
NEWS: Indonesia plans to export nickel-based material used to make EV batteries to the U.S. next month, its energy minister said on Friday. Bahlil Lahadalia said Indonesia would provide the material to Tesla.
October 18, 2024
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/indonesia-export-ev-battery-material-us-next-month-minister-says-2024-10-18/

—-
< Looks like good construction progress is being made at Tesla's Lithium refinery since the last update the company provided.
 
Joe Tegtmeyer 🚀 🤠🛸😎
 
I just finished up flying at Tesla’s Lithium Refinery plant near Corpus Christi & there are many changes since my last update! Here are a few images from my flight … more in my narrated video later today! …
10/17/24, ➡️ https://x.com/joetegtmeyer/status/1846956520602317270
 4 pics, one below. ⬇️
 
—-
Tesla revealed as only AAA-Rated supplier in new Battery StorageTech bankability report
"Tesla's quarterly deployment levels of ESS solutions are currently trending at record highs. Furthermore, Tesla’s Financial Scores are at the upper end of all the companies analyzed in the first report."
https://www.energy-storage.news/tesla-revealed-as-only-aaa-rated-supplier-in-new-battery-storagetech-bankability-report/

—-
BMW Supercharger Access Potentially Delayed Until 'Later In 2025'
The automaker had previously announced that BMW and Mini vehicles would gain Supercharger access in early 2025.

BMW is also working on a large-scale charging network joint venture with General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Kia and Mercedes-Benz, whose goal is to have 30,000 DC fast chargers up and running by 2030. This potentially Supercharger-rivaling network is called Ionna, and it will cover the U.S. and Canada, where it will cater to both CCS1- and NACS-equipped EVs. …

https://insideevs.com/news/736217/bmw-supercharger-acces-potentially-delayed/

—-
Pic of Guardian Headline:
 Four years after buying an electric car, why am I still forced to play hunt-the-charger?
 “I assumed it would get easier to run an EV, but without a decent infrastructure it's getting harder and harder”
 

FutureAzA
 
Oo, oo, I know this one!
 
It's because you bought the wrong car.
 
Hope this helps!

10/10/24, https://x.com/futureaza/status/1844352738530034026

⬇️  Tesla’s Lithium Refinery plant under construction near Corpus Christi, Texas, US.

[Sigmetnow]

—- Rivian
 
Story about Rivian going above and beyond to service a newly-purchased truck being used hard to help in the recovery efforts for Hurricane Helene:
10/9/24, ➡️  https://x.com/chessforgiants/status/1844090581427052948
 
Pic below. ⬇️
 
Also: Beginning this month at Rivian spaces in four cities - Atlanta, Brooklyn, Austin and Denver - a vehicle from The Good Project will be available for community organizations to borrow and put to work for the greater good. …
https://x.com/jpuconn/status/1844093674935943394

—-
Rivian CEO Calls for Bipartisan Support for EVs, Warns of Policy Setbacks

… Last week, Rivian officially started shipping out models of its Gen 2 R1T and R1S EVs with the new tri-motor configuration.
 
However, Scaringe pointed out that a lack of consumer choices is slowing this transition, particularly in the U.S. market.
“If you’re looking to buy a vehicle under $50,000, there are very few compelling choices,” he remarked, explaining that Rivian plans to introduce new, more affordable models in the coming years. …
 
Despite the industry’s slow growth, Scaringe said that the EV market is still expanding, with 2024 projected to see the highest volume of electric vehicle sales ever. “2024 will be the highest volume of electric vehicles sold ever. We expect 2025 to be higher than 2024,” Scaringe stated. However, he acknowledged that the growth rate has plateaued, which he attributes to the limited number of affordable options for consumers.
 
Rivian, which has built a reputation for its premium electric trucks and SUVs priced over $70,000, is preparing to launch a more affordable lineup. Scaringe underscored the importance of this move, noting, “Our next set of products coming in at under $50,000 is a really key enabler to give customers an alternative.”
 
Rivian recently partnered with Tesla to use its charging network, a decision Scaringe defended despite delays in Tesla providing adapters for Rivian vehicles.

https://eletric-vehicles.com/rivian/rivian-ceo-calls-for-bipartisan-support-for-evs-warns-of-policy-setbacks/
 
    —-
Rivian CEO on partnering with Tesla to use its charging network: "Tesla has been a great partner to us on this; Tesla and Rivian engineers work closely to ensure compatibility and seamless charging experiences for customers.” eletric-vehicles.com/rivian/rivian-…
9/26/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1839337646692421847
 
—-
NEWS: Rivian says it delivered 10,018 vehicles in Q3. Wall Street was expecting 13,000.
Rivian also lowered its 2024 production target to 47,000-49,000, down from 57,000
"Rivian is experiencing a production disruption due to a shortage. This supply shortage impact began in Q3 of this year, has become more acute in recent weeks and continues."
10/4/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1842206483439624532
Textpic at the link.

   —-
NEWS: Rivian cut its 2024 production forecast by ~15% due to a copper windings shortage for its Enduro motor. Earlier this year, a miscommunication with its sole supplier, Essex Furukawa, along with Rivian's miscalculation of its demand, led to the shortfall. Essex has since diverted supply to other customers, and now it cannot fulfill Rivian's requirements, according to Bloomberg.
10/7/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1843418918561702374

[Sigmetnow]

—- Stellantis Could Make Fewer Gas Cars, Beginning as Soon as Next Month, to Avoid Emissions Fines
The world's fourth-largest automaker must've done the math and figured it's better to sell fewer ICEs than risk paying fines.
 
Oct 22

Last month, Stellantis admitted it has too many unsold cars in North America. To get rid of excess inventory, it plans to assemble fewer cars in the coming months. Over in Europe, production could be cut as well, but for a different reason. The automotive conglomerate is concerned making too many ICEs will increase the risk of paying fines for exceeding fleet emissions targets.

Freshly appointed Chief Operating Officer of Stellantis' operations in Europe, Jean-Philippe Imparato, said the company is ready to reduce the output of gasoline and diesel cars. The COO told Automotive News Europe the production cuts could commence as early as next month. Why so soon? Because the EU's fleet emissions target will become considerably stricter from January 1, 2025.

The current fleet average target of 115.1 g/km (WLTP) will go down by approximately 19% in 2025 to 93.6 g/km. As previously reported, only Tesla and Geely were below next year's level in the first six months of 2024. It's worth noting that each automaker has its target, resulting from the average mass of its fleet. Consequently, companies that sell more SUVs have higher targets than those with smaller vehicles.

What happens when automakers fail to meet the targets? They pay fines–€95 per excess gram per car. As you can imagine, that quickly adds up when you're an automotive juggernaut such as Stellantis. Recently, Renault boss Luca de Meo said automakers active in Europe are at risk of paying €15 billion in fines, although The Financial Times quotes Barclays Bank saying it'll likely be around the €10+ billion mark. …

https://www.motor1.com/news/738251/stellantis-cut-gas-car-production/

—-
 
BYD had its best sales month ever in September 2024 with 419,426 cars sold, up 32% YoY.
 
Breakdown:
• 252,647 Plug-In Hybrids
• 164,956 Battery Electric Vehicles
 
10/1/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1841268136420491751
 
BYD sets new monthly global sales record, driven by plug-in hybrids
https://thedriven.io/2024/10/02/byd-sets-new-monthly-global-sales-record-driven-by-plug-in-hybrids/

—-
 
US NEWS: EV market share in Colorado hit 21.9% in Q3 2024, a new all-time high.
 
The Model Y was the #1 bestselling EV in the state, and the third bestselling vehicle overall.
10/22/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1848761841628971267
 
https://colorado.auto/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-Colorado-Auto-Outlook-Q3.pdf
 

My god. If you live in Colorado, you can get this brand-new Quicksilver Tesla Model Y LR RWD for as low as $25,000 (excluding gas savings).
 
Starting price: $46,990
-$3,290 inventory discount
-$7,500 Fed EV credit
-$5,350 state EV rebate
-$5,000 Tesla referral credits
- $500 referral discount
= $25,350
 
I'm not even including Tesla's 0% APR promotion for 60-month loans, Tesla's $1k military discount, Colorado's $6k vehicle exchange program discount, the $5,500 Xcel energy EV rebate, or any gas savings. If you include all those the price is closer to $7,800. You can take advantage of free FSD transfer too. Wild.

10/21/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1848553296174137453
 
—-
The 2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E starts at $36,495 and finally gets a heat pump.
Another big upgrade is the addition of automatic lane changes to BlueCruise.
https://insideevs.com/news/737988/2025-ford-mustang-mach-e/

 
——-
GM announced that the company sold a record 32,195 EVs {in the US} in Q3 2024, up 60% YoY and up 46% QoQ.
 
Source: https://news.gm.com/newsroom.detail.html/Pages/news/us/en/2024/oct/1001-gmsales.html#col_2\
 
10/1/24, ➡️ https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1841272376614379834
  

Car Dealership Guy
[NEWS] GM layoffs will rock nearly 1,700 workers:
Starting in Nov., 686 full-time workers will be temporarily laid off, while 250 will be permanently let go from GM’s Fairfax Assembly plant in Kansas.
By Jan. 2025, another 759 workers will face temporary layoffs.
 
Why the cuts?
GM is sunsetting the Chevy Malibu and investing $390M to retool the plant for Chevy Bolt EV production.
 
But GM’s EV shift comes at a cost—
Workers and the local community will bear the brunt of these changes as GM undergoes this transition.
 
And for consumers?
The Malibu’s end means one less affordable sedan, a blow for budget-conscious buyers already facing rising interest rates and insurance premiums.
 
Yet, GM claims the Bolt EV will be the most affordable EV by 2025—
But with no pricing details yet, affordability remains a big question mark.
 
At the end of the day — automakers face some tough trade-offs on the road to ramping up EVs. Will they be worth it?

9/23/24, https://x.com/guydealership/status/1838277194516250703
 

Jeff Lutz 🔋
Interesting how CNBC deals w/bad news for a major ad buyer like GM getting downgraded. No breaking news, no auto analyst, no dedicated segment, just a 25sec clip. Why didn’t they bring Toni Sacconaghi on from Bernstein who usually has 10min segments to dunk on @Tesla? 🤨 🤷🏻‍♂️

9/23/24, ➡️ https://x.com/thejefflutz/status/1838304355830595638
30 sec CNBC clip.

[Sigmetnow]

NEWS: Volkswagen has announced plans to shut down at least three factories in Germany, laying off tens of thousands of staff and shrinking its remaining plants in Europe's biggest economy.
 
“Management is absolutely serious about all this. This is not sabre-rattling in the collective bargaining round."
 
VW labour chief sounds alarm on mass layoffs, three German plant closures
Axel Schmidt October 28, 2024 12:04 PM EDT

WOLFSBURG, Germany, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Volkswagen plans to shut at least three factories in Germany, lay off tens of thousands of staff and shrink its remaining plants in Europe's biggest economy as it plots a deeper-than-expected overhaul, the company's works council head said on Monday.

Europe's biggest carmaker has been negotiating for weeks with unions over plans to revamp its business and cut costs, including considering plant closures on home soil for the first time, in a blow to Germany's industrial prowess.

Volkswagen reiterated on Monday that restructuring was needed and said it would make concrete proposals on Wednesday.
"Management is absolutely serious about all this. This is not sabre-rattling in the collective bargaining round," Daniela Cavallo, Volkswagen's works council head, told employees at the carmaker's biggest plant, in Wolfsburg, threatening to break off talks.

"This is the plan of Germany's largest industrial group to start the sell-off in its home country of Germany," Cavallo added, not specifying which plants would be affected or how many of Volkswagen Group's roughly 300,000 staff in Germany could be laid off.
Volkswagen also plans to cut salaries at the brand by at least 10% and freeze pay in both 2025 and 2026, she said.
…
Volkswagen said in a statement that it would make proposals for how to cut labour costs on Wednesday, when workers and management meet for the second round of wage talks and the carmaker releases third-quarter results.

"The situation is serious and the responsibility of the negotiating partners is enormous ... Without comprehensive measures to regain competitiveness, we will not be able to afford essential investments in the future," Volkswagen Group board member Gunnar Kilian said.

Thomas Schaefer, who heads the Volkswagen brand division, said German factories were not productive enough and were operating 25-50% above targeted costs, meaning some sites were twice as expensive compared to the competition.
…
"The plans go far beyond market expectations," said Daniel Schwarz, an analyst at Stifel. "I believe this reflects a unique combination of unfavourable factors: competition in China, softening of demand in Europe, especially for BEVs (battery-powered electric vehicles), stricter regulation."

Unions have immense clout at VW, where labour representatives hold half the seats on the supervisory board and are, in theory, legally entitled to hold strikes from Dec. 1 as a tool to further escalate the conflict.

Volkswagen's situation reflects a broader trend in the world's third-largest economy, which is seeing its dominance challenged by more nimble and cheaper rivals in key areas, including in the auto industry, its industrial backbone.

Strikes, which had been threatened for the start of December, were now likely, Schwarz said.
…
"Significant cost-cutting measures must therefore be taken promptly before the ongoing underutilisation of the plants leads to negative cash flows."

It follows more bad news for German carmakers last week, with both Mercedes-Benz and Porsche vowing to step up cost-cutting measures after posting profit drops on a weakening Chinese market.

German carmakers also fear being caught in the crosshairs of a trade war between the European Union and China, with hefty EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles set to come into force this week.

"I believe that anyone who hasn't yet understood what it's all about should now really wake up," said Stefan Erhardt, an employee at another Volkswagen plant near the German city of Kassel.

"This is really about all our livelihoods for the future, about the suppliers. This is about every small baker here at this location. I have to say, I'm really a bit scared."

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-plans-major-layoffs-shut-least-three-german-plants-works-council-head-2024-10-28/


—- Mercedes-Benz with Q3 Profit Slump of -54%

Net profit fell by almost 54% to 1.72 billion euros compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

The number of vehicles delivered fell by -3%. In China, the most important market for Mercedes, the decline amounted to -13%. In addition, sales of luxury vehicles, which are the most profitable for Mercedes, fell by -12%.

In the BEV segment, sales fell by -31%.

…

10/25/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1849749919382302979
Table of Q3 data at the link.
 
Noteably, last year the company doubled down on its luxury strategy in an effort to raise profits.
 

—-

Porsche CEO Blume in March 2024: "We stand by our strategy, the ramp-up of electromobility is important because the electric motor is superior to the combustion engine in the long term".
 
Porsche in October 2024, CFO Meschke: "The ban on combustion engines must be dropped."
…

The Porsche Group is now planning a cost-cutting program worth billions, will change their strategy from pure BEVs to Hybrids and delay the transformation but by doing that they accelerate the shrinking of the company.
…

10/27/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1850491111954846013

[NeilT]

You really do have to write on the wall in your own blood before German Unions will take notice and break out of their complacency.

[Sigmetnow]

So painful.  While at the same time, the successful EV company that must not be named is expanding its presence in the country:
 
Tesla secures approval for first stage of Giga Berlin expansion

Tesla has officially received approval to proceed with the first stage of its Giga Berlin expansion plans, which will see the facility’s production capacity more than double to 1 million cars per year, making it the largest automotive factory in the country.
 
On Tuesday the local environment ministry approved the construction of additional infrastructure at Giga Berlin, marking the beginning of a three-stage expansion process. The approval covers the construction of a large hall, which will house storage areas, a battery cell testing laboratory, and expanded logistics infrastructure, according to a report from Reuters.
 
All of the new construction will take place on land already owned by Tesla, aligning with the company’s originally announced plans. …

https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-secures-approval-for-first-stage-of-giga-berlin-expansion/

Tesla Model Y Was Europe’s Best-Selling Car in September
https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-model-y-was-europes-best-selling-car-in-september/

In response to the EU’s tariffs, Chinese car companies like Chery, BYD, SAIC and Geely are in the throes of setting up factories in Europe.

[Sigmetnow]

NEWS: Ford will stop F-150 Lightning production for the rest of 2024 starting on November 15th due to weak demand for its EV.
It will resume production on January 6th.
 
Ford F-150 Lightning Plant To Be Idled From November To 2025

Despite this latest production cut, the Ford F-150 Lightning continues to enjoy sales increases, most recently posting an 86 percent year-over-year gain through the first nine months of the year at 22,807 units. The Lightning did concede the crown of best-selling EV pickup in the U.S. to the Tesla Cybertruck recently, however. Regardless, Ford hasn’t yet disclosed what sort of plans it has for the roughly 750 workers currently stationed at the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center during this seven week shutdown.

https://fordauthority.com/2024/10/ford-f-150-lightning-plant-to-be-idled-from-november-to-2025/
 
In 2023, Ford had a 2024 production goal of 166,000 F-150 Lightning EVs, then cut it to 83,000 in December. Now, due to weak demand, Ford will produce fewer than 30,000 units in 2024—82% below their initial target of 160k.
10/31/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1852052113976664476
 
The ICE Ford F-150 is the best selling pickup truck ever.  But the electric F-150 Lightning has little demand. Part of this is because dealers aren’t incentivized to present the benefits, and so aren’t educating their customers.  Also, the non-Tesla charging infrastructure in the US pretty much sucks.
 
Ever since the Tesla Model 3 was released in July 2017, everyone has minimized that very difficult accomplishment with, “The EV competition is coming.”  But now it’s seven years later, and no competition from the OEMs has arrived.

—-
WATCH: Fly through of Tesla’s Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg in Grünheide Germany 🇩🇪—manufacturing at its technological finest!
10/30/24, ➡️ https://x.com/blueskykites/status/1851597386704957910
3 min.  So many robots….

—-
NEWS: BYDs revenue in Q3 ($28.2B) surpassed Tesla's ($25.2B) for the first time, but BYD's Q3 net income was $1.63B, vs $2.2B for Tesla.
10/30/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1851631487482814752
Source: Bloomberg

=====
NEWS: Volkswagen vehicle sales fell 8.3% YoY.
 
Volkswagen profit plunges 42% in third quarter amid sweeping overhaul plans
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/30/volkswagen-q3-2024-results.html

—-
VW demands 10% wage cuts to save jobs as profits plunge
October 30, 2024

WOLFSBURG, Germany, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) asked its workers to take a 10% pay cut on Wednesday, arguing it was the only way that Europe's biggest carmaker could save jobs and remain competitive as profits plunged to a three-year low and union bosses threatened strikes.
 
It was the first official confirmation of cost-cutting measures VW wants to implement to turn around its fortunes as high costs and weak demand in China dragged down sales and left its factories bloated from overcapacity.
The company did not address directly the issue of whether it planned to close factories in Germany for the first time in Volkswagen's 87-year history, though labour representatives said that option remained on the table.
 
VW's problems have fed wider anxieties about Germany's status as an industrial powerhouse and the competitiveness of European carmakers against encroaching global rivals.
German automakers also fear the impact of a standoff between the European Union and Beijing, with EU tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese electric vehicles coming into force this week.
 
"We urgently need a reduction in labour costs in order to maintain our competitiveness. This requires a contribution from the workforce," Arne Meiswinkel, the VW brand's personnel chief who leads negotiations for the carmaker, said. …

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-reports-third-quarter-profit-slump-major-overhaul-looms-2024-10-30/
⬇️ ⬇️  Graphs below

——
German metalworkers launch strikes amid tough wage talks
October 29, 2024

Germany's IG Metall trade union launched strikes in the metal and electrical industry amid sector-wide collective bargaining talks.
Around 71,000 people took part the strike on Tuesday and around 370 companies were affected, according to the union's executive board in Frankfurt.
 
The collective bargaining talks cover wages and other conditions for around 3.9 million workers in Germany employed in the automotive and other manufacturing industries.
These negotiations, which continued on Tuesday in their third round, are heavily influenced by drastic austerity measures proposed by car giant Volkswagen on Monday.
VW intends to close at least three plants in Germany and cut tens of thousands of jobs, the leader of the firm's works council told VW employees.
…
Protests took place nationwide, with thousands of participants in Kiel alone.
Employees also protested at aFord site in Cologne and at Porsche in Stuttgart. In the city of Ingolstadt, around 5,000 apprentices from all over Bavaria gathered to demonstrate.
…
The companies point to weak production figures and a lack of orders. …

https://www.yahoo.com/news/german-metalworkers-launch-strikes-amid-174317580.html

—-
 

Alex
 
Opel CEO Florian Huettl:  "We can't build electric cars in Germany that cost between 25,000 and 30,000 euros."
 
"With German labour and energy costs, that's simply not possible today."
 
Huettl therefore called for a new edition of the state purchase premium and investment in the charging infrastructure in order to revitalise the stagnating German BEV market.
 
A serious mistake that many CEOs of car manufacturers make is to believe that they can somehow avoid innovating, doing their homework and cutting costs, but the government will somehow come and rescue them. …

10/31/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1851907156137709568

 
—-
NEWS: Starting this Wednesday, all the battery EVs imported from China into Europe will face an extra tariff that can go from 7.8% (for Tesla) to 35.3%. The new duty is on top of the current 10% import tariff.
 
Chinese EV Tariffs in EU Take Effect Wednesday, With Negotiations Still Open

… The [China] Ministry warned that individual negotiations by the European Commission with companies, rather than exclusively with China, would weaken mutual trust, disrupt the negotiation process, and increase costs.
 
“If the EU, while negotiating with China, also holds separate price commitment discussions with certain companies, it would undermine mutual trust, disrupt the overall negotiation process, and add more administrative costs to the subsequent implementation and oversight of the price commitment agreement,” the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated.
 
Earlier this month, Brussels rejected a Chinese proposal to set a minimum price of €30,000 ($32,900) for all the China-made EVs sold in Europe.
 
When rejecting the minimum price proposal, Brussels said that the matter extends beyond pricing alone, highlighting the need to address state subsidies that Chinese EV manufacturers allegedly receive, which distort competition within the EU market.

https://eletric-vehicles.com/byd/chinese-ev-tariffs-in-eu-take-effect-wednesday-with-negotiations-still-open/

[ivica]

10+ days old but found nothing on it here, so: Interview with Ford CEO Jim Farley at Everything Electric Show, 12- min clip
(nice to hear someone well grounded as that CEO appear he is, check the comments too) <

[Espen]

10+ days old but found nothing on it here, so: Interview with Ford CEO Jim Farley at Everything Electric Show, 12- min clip
(nice to hear someone well grounded as that CEO appear he is, check the comments too) <

A very rare CEO, and even an American, the vidio has a lot of interesting data that will scare Western car production including Tesla!

[Sigmetnow]

10+ days old but found nothing on it here, so: Interview with Ford CEO Jim Farley at Everything Electric Show, 12- min clip
(nice to hear someone well grounded as that CEO appear he is, check the comments too) <

A very rare CEO, and even an American, the vidio has a lot of interesting data that will scare Western car production including Tesla!

BYD says “Tesla is not our competition.”
 
BYD considers Tesla 'a partner' in the EV transition
Feb 26, 2024

What is the BYD car in comparison to the biggest competitor out there, which is Tesla?
 
STELLA LI: That's a very interesting question. I ask our team in China, because Tesla is very successful in China. The overlap for BYD and Tesla customer is less than 15%, less than 15%. So you can see we don't need even to convince them, because we only have an overlap of 15%. All the EV company, we are the partner. Our real competition is ICE car company. ICE car is not an EV.
The more people jumping to produce EV is better for the industry.
…
Stella Li makes it pretty clear, BYD is not looking to play in the US, at least, for now, because, in her words, things are too complicated, including the politics at play. …

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/byd-considers-tesla-partner-ev-162741891.html

But while Opel’s CEO Florian Huettl says, "We can't build electric cars in Germany that cost between 25,000 and 30,000 euros. With German labour and energy costs, that's simply not possible today." …
10/31/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1851907156137709568

… Waiting in the wings for 2025-2026 is Tesla’s more affordable car(s).  Millions of them.
 

Nic Cruz Patane
 
At $30,000 (before any incentives) the Tesla Cybercab can easily sell 2M+ units/year.
That would bring in Tesla 60B in revenue in one year. (2M units)

11/2/24, https://x.com/niccruzpatane/status/1852723448948117657
⬇️ What the Cybercab order page might look like.

[Sigmetnow]

Ford CEO’s honesty in the video is refreshing, but he’s just admitting the obvious news as relates to OEMs.
 
NEWS: Ford's Q3 earnings just came out.
The company's EV unit (called Model e) lost $1.2 billion in Q3, with a negative EBIT margin of -104.4%. EV revenue was $1.2 billion, -33% YoY.
Ford says EV "revenue was down -33%, reflecting industry-wide pricing pressure and lower volume."
10/28/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1851006728134852882
 
Slide deck:
https://s201.q4cdn.com/693218008/files/doc_financials/2024/q3/Ford-2024-Q3-Earnings-Presentation.pdf

—-
Car Dealership Guy
[NEWS] Hyundai and Kia just smashed their Oct. sales records:
Hyundai saw an 18% YoY increase, selling over 71,000 vehicles. Meanwhile, Kia followed suit with 68,908 units sold, a 16% bump from last year’s Oct. record.
 
A key driver of growth? Sales of EV (and mostly) hybrid models.
 
Bottom line: 15+ years ago — a lot of consumers (and dealers) looked down on Hyundai/Kia. But today? They’re dominating with one of the sharpest turnarounds in the industry.
 
Read today’s top automotive stories, presented by @autohaulerx :  carguymedia.com/3C6mbjH
 
(Data source: Hyundai / Kia)
11/1/24, https://x.com/guydealership/status/1852473497995333907

—-
NEWS: S&P Global Mobility forecasts September and October BEV U.S. market share will reach above 9% for the first time ever.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4215350-electric-vehicle-sales-are-forecast-to-reach-9-in-the-us-in-october

—-
CALIFORNIA
 
NEWS: Battery electric vehicle market share hit a record-high of 23.7% in California (the 5th largest economy in the world) in Q3.
 
The Tesla Cybertruck was the 8th best-selling EV overall in California (6,349 registrations in CA) through the first 9 months of 2024, beating the Rivian R1S, Ford, F-150 Lightning and VW ID.4.
 
10/30/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1851667008045355209
 
Source:  https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-3Q-24.pdf
 
Rank Model Type Regs.
1 Tesla Model Y BEV 105,693
2 Tesla Model 3 BEV 37,219
3 Hyundai Ioniq 5 BEV 11,711
4 Ford Mustang Mach-E BEV 8,013
5 Toyota RAV4 PHEV 7,805
6 Tesla Model X BEV 7,312
7 BMW i4 BEV 6,667
8 Tesla Cybertruck BEV 6,349
9 Rivian R1S BEV 6,279
10 Jeep Wrangler PHEV 6,277
11 Volkswagen ID.4 BEV 5,255
12 BMW iX BEV 4,451
13 Ford F-Series Lightning BEV 4,231
14 Toyota bZ4X BEV 4,215
 
SM:  Model Y was actually the bestselling vehicle overall, including ICE.
 
Through the first nine months of 2024, Tesla sold twice as many Model Ys in California as the combined sales of all other non-Tesla EVs on the top 15 best-seller list.

====
Q3 net income comparison:
• GM: $3.07 billion (+0.26% YoY)
• Tesla: $2.17 billion (+17% YoY)
• Ford: $1.9 billion (-29.6% YoY)
10/28/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1851052441485148273
< Ford should have advertised more. /s

====
GM has launched its online configurator for its all-electric Cadillac Optiq. Deliveries start in the U.S. in a few weeks.
• Starting price: $54,390 ($46,890 including Fed EV credit).
• EPA Range: 302 miles
• Can charge on @Tesla's Supercharger network via adapter
• 85kWh battery
• 150kW max charging speed
• Super Cruise hands-free driver assistance
…
10/28/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1850955836274938259
More info at the link.

—-
NEWS: Lucid has announced pricing for its "Gravity" SUV.
• Starting price: $79,990 for Gravity Touring. $94,900 for Gravity Grand Touring trim.
• Over 440 miles of range
• Native NACS charging port
• Orders open Nov 7th
Production of the Lucid Gravity Grand Touring is scheduled to begin in late 2024, and the Lucid Gravity Touring is planned for late 2025, with pricing starting at $79,900.
10/29/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1851271038606192864
 More at the link.

—-
Tesla Cybertruck deliveries start in Canada on Nov 5th.
10/29/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1851355442548457778

[morganism]

 Kia says its new EV camper concept is the “ideal escape pod”

Kia has given an electric SUV and an EV van the off-road treatment

Whenever we write about electric vans, the comments reveal a growing but pent-up demand for a camper version. Well, it seems that those vibes are being felt at Kia. It has created a pair of concepts for the  Specialty Equipment Marketing Association (SEMA) automotive trade show, which got underway in Las Vegas today.

One of the two concepts will look more familiar—the EV9 ADVNTR is based on the popular electric three-row SUV. But the other is the PV5 WKNDR, a rugged off-road camper based on a forthcoming Kia electric van platform.

The EV9 ADVNTR makes good use of the existing EV9's angular design, with new sections filled in with protective cladding. There's a suspension lift and all-terrain tires, plus a roof rack, to distinguish it from lesser EV9s, but otherwise it's relatively stock.

The PV5 WKNDR is the more interesting of the two. Like the SUV, it's lifted and wears off-road tires and sports the same matte-green-with-yellow-highlights color scheme. Designed to be "the ideal escape pod for extended weekends in nature," it now features a pop-up camper roof complete with solar panels.

When you're parked and camping, the steering wheel can be tilted out of the way. Kia
The various furnishings can all be stowed in the floor or the walls of the van for space efficiency.

There's another pop-out section from the side for storing gear while you're parked and set up (called the gear head), and a reconfigurable interior depending on your mood. A kitchen with an induction stove pops out of the side of the WKNDR, and you can use the gear head as a pantry, Kia says.
(more)

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2024/11/kia-reimagines-the-off-road-camper-van-with-new-concept-ev/

[Sigmetnow]

Trump’s EV Hate Drives Ford, GM [stock] Gains
Al Root
Ford stock closed up 5.6% at $11.19 a share, while … GM stock added 2.5%.

A second term for former President Donald Trump and a likely Red Wave, with Republicans controlling the White House, Senate, and House, benefits traditional car makers in a few ways.
 
For starters, Trump isn’t a fan of electric vehicles to say the least, and will likely try to repeal EV purchase tax credits. That means slower growth for EVs in the U.S. Since Ford and GM don’t make money selling EVs, fewer EVs, and more gas-powered sales are better for their product mix.
 
Tesla of course, only sells EVs. Still, its shares rose 14.8% to $288.53 because Tesla sells cars around the globe and has the scale to be profitable without tax credits. CEO Elon Musk backed Trump’s bid for the presidency, and having a friend in the White House isn’t bad for the company.
 
Not all the Biden-era EV policies will change, wrote Baird analyst Ben Kallo in a Wednesday report. Some policies encouraging battery-plant construction benefit both Blue and Red states, making them more likely to survive, he says.
 
Still, Trump’s stance on EVs took a toll. Shares of Rivian lost 8.3%.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ford-gm-stocks-gain-trump-ev-policies-814b483d?siteid=yhoof2

—-

Sawyer Merritt
 
Trump will have some authority to adjust the eligibility criteria for the $7,500 federal EV tax credit to make it harder for EVs to qualify, but he cannot completely eliminate the credit itself because it is established by law passed by Congress. To get rid of it completely he will need both the House and the Senate to support that effort and pass it, and he'll get that support because both chambers are now Republican controlled.
 
The EV credit probably won't be the #1 thing on Trump's list of things to tackle on day one in office, but to be on the safe side, if you want to take advantage of the Fed EV credit, I strongly suggest you order [an EV] now and take delivery by the end of this year.
 
Despite Tesla currently being the biggest beneficiary by far of the Fed EV credit, I think Tesla’s competitors will be the most negatively hit by the removal of it because they are already struggling with EV demand and profitability. This will make their EVs harder to sell, and if they have to lower prices as a result, this hurts margins even more. Tesla has such good and profitable products that people love and want, they’ll be ok. …

11/7/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1854748153825968627
 
< Turning it into American made car credit makes more sense, and Tesla will still qualify.

—-
ICE sales are declining, and huge amounts of OEM ICE assets will soon need to be written off their balance sheets, a fiscal catastrophe.
 
Autoblog has released a list of legacy automakers/brands that it thinks may not survive the EV transition. The author’s belief seems to be:  If an OEM doesn’t have a good quality, high-volume EV by this point, they have run out of time. 
 
• Ford
• Lincoln
• Chrysler
• Dodge
• Ram
• Alfa Romeo
• Fiat
• Maserati
• Toyota
• Lexus
• Nissan
• Infiniti
• Mazda
• Subaru
• Jaguar
• Land Rover
• Mercedes-Benz
• Volkswagen
• Audi
• Porsche
 
EV apocalypse: Which brands might not survive the electric revolution?
Whether legacy manufacturers or EV startups, there will be casualties on the way to EV Nirvana.
Stephen Fogel Nov 6, 2024
https://www.autoblog.com/news/which-brands-may-not-survive-the-ev-transition

    —-
A. Amortization of illiquid ICE assets
 
The reason why gas car makers can’t respond is that the attempt exposes themselves to fiscal jeopardy.
 

GM, Ford, MB, Toyota, and the other incumbents have hundreds of billions of dollars of assets invested in gas car tech in the form of intellectual property, tooling, manufacturing assets, ongoing R&D, and human resources. The incumbents derive the bulk of their income from these assets, by definition of being a car maker.
 
To fully engage in BEVs right away, these gas car automakers would have to write off these billions in assets immediately, which is fiscal suicide.
 
Instead these automakers must amortize these gas car assets over 10 if not 20 years, moving only gradually away from deriving income from gas car tech. Unable to shift quickly, the incumbents’ "competitive response" will be lackluster at best….

From 2016: https://dauger.com/tesla/disrupts/different.html#incumbentsshackles

—-
Rivian just reported their Q3 earnings.
• Loss per share: $0.99 vs $0.92 expected
• Revenue: $874M vs. $990M expected
• Shockingly remains on track for positive gross profit in Q4 2024
• Negative gross profit of -$392 million. Net loss of $1.1B (vs $1.37B in Q3 2023). …
• Rivian has $6.74B in cash, and $8.1B in total liquidity. 
11/7/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1854637002605649946
 
Rivian lost -$39,130 for every vehicle that they delivered in Q3 2024 (vs -$32,705 in Q2 2024). Q3 included the launch of their second-gen R1 vehicles.
Rivian lost $124k per vehicle in Q4 2022. Rivian said today they remain on track for positive gross profit in Q4 2024. 
11/7/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1854641373544075279
  
—-
Lucid has reported Q2 2024 earnings.
• Loss per share: $0.28 vs $0.30 expected
• Revenue: $200M vs $198M expected
• Net loss: $992M (vs $630M in Q3 2023)
• $5.16 billion in total liquidity
Slide deck: https://ir.lucidmotors.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lucid-announces-third-quarter-2024-financial-results
  11/7/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1854637759517929936
 
—-
Jaguar, a British Car Brand, Has Stopped Selling New Cars in the UK
The company is taking one step backward so that it can (hopefully) take two steps forward.
 
The company’s managing director Rawdon Glover recently admitted the transition to a pure electric brand has been “hugely frustrating.” The plan is for the new Jaguar to move into ultra-luxury territory and sell fewer cars with higher profit margins.
 
• Jaguar is going fully electric, but the EVs aren't ready yet.
• It won't sell any new cars in its home market until 2026.
• You can still buy a new Jag outside of the UK.
https://www.motor1.com/news/739508/jaguar-not-selling-cars-uk/

[NeilT]

Actually I heard Trump on EV saying it was about removing choice not hating EV.

As this is exactly my view of things it struck a chord.

Trumps view was that so long as you could choose ICE or EV, then making EV somewhat more compelling is OK.  But to tax or regulate people into submission without a choice is wrong. It make science political and then everyone loses.

Whether the "more compelling" move happens is to be seen but forcing people to take crap at a high price is a lose lose scenario.

[Sigmetnow]

Romain Hedouin - Unit Police
 
This is my trip home for Christmas
 
I do it with an electric car
 
Here is my method to plan it:
1. Get in the car
2. Enter the destination in the GPS

11/10/24, https://x.com/romainhedouin/status/1855764293825990721
⬇️  map below
 
EV navigation software (well, Tesla’s, at least) will plan your route so that you arrive at an available Supercharger with the battery at a low State of Charge, so your charge rate is faster — and will notify you via the app when you have sufficient charge to continue on your trip.  Easy.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla Europe & Middle East
Supercharger network brings you seamless cross-country travel
 
11/11/24, https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/1855959916470493272
 
< And most of them are open to all EV ❤️

   ——
NEWS: Tesla has now begun showing occupancy status at select third-party chargers in Europe.
 
Tesla Now Shows Occupancy Status for Third-Party Chargers
November 11, 2024
https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/2368/tesla-now-shows-occupancy-status-for-third-party-chargers

===
 
The ultimate Tesla supercharger optimization guide, according to yours truly, in order of impact to total travel time:
 
1. Avoid busy V2 Superchargers; getting limited to 72kW if you have to split power is devastating.
2. Pick chargers as close to your route as possible; every minute spent driving to/from the charger is wasted.
3. Always navigate to the supercharger so your battery will precondition, especially in cold weather.
4. Maintain full driving speed, even if you have to charge an extra minute or two to make sure you can do so.
5. Arrive with as low an SOC as possible.
6. Charging past 60% is usually a waste unless there isn’t another supercharger within that range that’s close to your route.
 
11/10/24, https://x.com/austyusa/status/1855754603981132052

[Sigmetnow]

NEWS: Accenture has released a new study about EV adoption.

Highlights:
• 57% of drivers will have adopted an EV within the next 10 years
• 43% of non-EV drivers are considering an EV for their next purchase
• 23% of people surveyed who don’t currently own an EV said they see themselves buying one within the next 5 years
• 47% of drivers are convinced that the future belongs to EVs
• 80% of drivers consider reliability, safety, and price as major purchase criteria

Accenture surveyed 6,000 car buyers from the USA, Italy, Germany, France, China, and Japan.

Source: https://www.accenture.com/fi-en/insights/automotive/what-electric-vehicle-drivers-want
 
11/12/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1856501661184782345

[gerontocrat]

The USD Argonne National Laboratory has updated US LDV monthly sales to October 2024.

A very ordinary month again.

Total LDV sales up 10,6% compared with October 2023, but the 12 month trailing average only showing growth of 2.6%

BEVs up by 21.6% over Oct 2023, but as a percentage of total LDV sales just 8.5%. I guess Tesla sold quite a few more cybertrucks.

HEVs up by 40.6% over October 2023

Pure ICEV sales up by 6.8% over Oct 23,
ICEV+HEV sales up 10% over October 2023.

Maybe BEV sales will get a boost in the next few months as Trump will be looking to kill the tax credits soon after Jan 20th 2025

[Sigmetnow]

—- It’s hard to be an automaker these days —-
 
NEWS: The CEO of VW America has suddenly and unexpectedly resigned.
VW says he "stepped down from his position on his own request."
Pablo Di Si led both VW Group and VW Brand for North America. Former Porsche North America CEO Dr. Kjell Gruner will take over.
https://www.motor1.com/news/741556/vw-america-ceo-resigns/

—-
But the JV is happening…
Rivian, Volkswagen Group launch $5.8 billion joint venture
Reuters Updated Tue, November 12, 2024 at 4:31 PM EST 1 min read
(Reuters) - Rivian and Volkswagen Group launched on Tuesday the joint venture they had announced in June, valued at $5.8 billion, to share software and electric vehicle architecture.
 
The joint venture aims to integrate advanced electrical infrastructure and Rivian's software technology for future electric vehicles of both companies, across all relevant vehicle segments, including subcompact cars, the firms said.
Volkswagen Group plans to invest up to $5.8 billion in Rivian and the joint venture by 2027, they said, adding that an initial investment of $1 billion in the form of a convertible note has already been made.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rivian-volkswagen-group-launch-5-211929826.html

—-
Rivian to be Gross Profit positive in Q4???
Yes — due to regulatory credits.
 
Last night Rivian admitted for the first time that the primary driver of the expected 4Q gross margin positivity was a massive, concentrated release of regulatory credits! …
Rivian: "we anticipate seeing (...) positive gross profitability (...) that's been driven by both the $300 million that I talked about in terms of regulatory credit sales...". …
https://x.com/alojoh/status/1854772135513694228

——-
GM laying off nearly 1,000 workers, mostly in US, source says
November 15, 2024
GM has been seeking to reposition itself as a leader in electric vehicles and software, which are both costly. The automaker is aiming to cut $2 billion to $4 billion in losses on electric vehicles next year.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/gm-laying-off-nearly-1000-workers-most-us-source-says-2024-11-15/

 
—- Stellantis and Nikola try to stay afloat by offering multiple energy options
 
Article includes video news piece
Stellantis reveals 'multi-energy' EV truck platform that's 'well-positioned' for the market, CEO says
Stellantis — as opposed to GM and Ford — is using a multi-energy platform for its trucks to meet its customers where they are, CEO Carlos Tavares said in a call with reporters.
 
The STLA Frame is designed for full-size, body-on-frame trucks and SUVs, with the ability to support battery electric (BEV) and range-extender electric vehicle (REEV) technologies, but also internal combustion, hybrid, and even hydrogen if needed.
 
Targeting 500 miles of all-electric range for the BEV. The range-extender EV, which uses a gas-powered motor as a generator to charge the battery when it's depleted, will have an even larger range of 690 miles.
 
Last month, Stellantis reported disappointing third quarter revenue and shipments and had earlier warned that profits would be significantly lower for the year compared to 2023 due to bloated inventory and deterioration in its US and China businesses.
 
Stellantis also said this month it would lay off 1,100 workers at its Jeep Gladiator plant in Ohio due to a sales decline for the off-road pickup, though an electrified hybrid version of the Gladiator is coming next year.
 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stellantis-reveals-multi-energy-ev-truck-platform-thats-well-positioned-for-the-market-ceo-says-181507112.html

 —-
Nikola exec says battery versus hydrogen not an either/or
Wed, November 13, 2024
On Monday’s The Stockout show, Grace Sharkey and I interviewed Tom Schmitt, chief commercial officer of Nikola Corp. Nikola is the leading company that offers alternatively fueled Class 8 trucks. It offers both battery-electric and hydrogen-electric options. Schmitt does not believe that one of those technologies will win out over the other. Instead, as shippers and fleet owners look to reduce their fossil fuel usage and lower their carbon footprints, he expects them to select the option that best fits their individual needs and duty cycles.
 
Hydrogen boasts a 500-mile max range with only a 20-minute refuel time. Nikola is building out the hydrogen fueling infrastructure starting in California and is looking to build a considerable first-mover advantage. Meanwhile, its battery-electric option has a 300-mile max range with a 90-minute charge time, but there are far more options for charging when compared to hydrogen. 2025 will be the first year in which Nikola has had the two fueling options available for the entirety of the year, which Schmitt believes will help it have a breakout year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nikola-exec-says-battery-versus-203535899.html

—-
Making a Beautiful, Tesla-Beating Electric Car Is a Frustrating Business
Peter Rawlinson's Lucid Motors arguably makes the world's best-engineered EVs. He hopes patience, Saudi money and surprisingly contrary thinking about batteries will get him into a serious race with his old boss, Elon Musk.
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/making-a-beautiful-tesla-beating-electric-car-is-a-frustrating-business
[paywalled, but see this thread on 𝕏:
News from Lucid, nice weekend read
source @theinformation
11/15/24, ➡️ https://x.com/teslaboomermama/status/1857494731560989017

—-
Audi Drops their Signature 3-Ring Logo in China
 
Alex @alex_avoigt
Audi has unveiled a new BEV in China that is produced by SAIC, is no longer visually recognizable as an Audi, and no longer has Audi rings but just a very small lettering.
11/7/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1854629374798315977
 ⬇️ pic below; another at the link.

—-
Alex @alex_avoigt
The End for Audi in 🇧🇪 Brussels
Audi Speaker on Tuesday "The potential investor from the commercial vehicle sector has withdrawn its expression of interest" for the plant in Brussels.
"There is no potential investor for the site, so the active search for investors is over." Audi informed
Audi's Belgian plant is on the verge of being shut down for good. An investor has bailed out at short notice. The 3,000 employees are now waiting for a social plan.
11/12/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1856369952841703587

 
—- When all else fails, just confuse everyone.
 
Tesla: has a hit with Cybertruck, a radical new vehicle inspired by the futuristic Sci-fi movie “Blade Runner”
 
Jaguar: produces an ad with odd people in odd outfits — but no cars.  Website has the same images.
 
< what the actual hell is this?
Jaguar:
the future
11/19/24, ➡️  https://x.com/jaguar/status/1858800846646948155
 
11/19/24, ➡️ https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1858919263433880026
 
Elon Musk replies:

@Jaguar Do you sell cars?

11/19/24, 11:43 AM https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1858914024013910020
 
Well, if Jaguar wanted more exposure, having Elon refer to the company on 𝕏, even negatively, might be the easiest way to do just that.

—-
Xiaomi CEO marked the roll-out of the company's 100,000th electric vehicle from the assembly line with a picture of himself sleeping on the factory floor, paying homage to what Elon Musk did at Tesla years ago.
 
Xiaomi's SU7 EV, which is a Model 3 competitor in China and costs $29,869 USD, only started production 7 months ago.
 
11/13/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1856719286208733577
⬇️ pic below.
{Actually, Musk slept on (an uncomfortable) multi-chair-unit in a meeting room on the side of the factory floor.  But, OK.}

[Sigmetnow]

NEWS: Bentley, owned by VW, says their entire car lineup will now go fully electric in 2035 instead of 2030.
11/9/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1855292787198943467
 
—-
EV companies, battery makers urge Trump not to kill vehicle tax credits
NEWS: The Zero Emission Transportation Association, whose members include Rivian, LG, Tesla, Uber, Lucid and Panasonic said production tax credits have driven enormous job in states like Ohio, Kentucky, Michigan, and Georgia, and warned killing those production and consume tax credits would undercut those investments and hurt American job growth. 
November 15, 2024
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ev-companies-battery-makers-urge-trump-not-kill-vehicle-tax-credits-2024-11-15/

—— 
NEWS: Hertz has said it plans to sell 30,000 EVs by the end of this year and get to a number that its customers wanted to rent. The company on Tuesday said it’s on pace to finish its broader fleet changeover effort by the end of 2025. 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hertz-falls-mounting-losses-failed-134945160.html
Article suggests they are all Teslas, which is incorrect.
 
< The issue wasn’t Hertz having too many EVs. It’s that they thought they can just add EV’s to the fleet and everything would be amazing and people would love them. However, they have no charging stations at their facilities, they don’t show people that don’t know about EV’s how to use them and they rent them just like any regular car like everybody can just come and get one and people just don’t know about EV’s if they don’t have one. It’s their own fault all of this.

—-
Includes a video news piece.
Cheap, pre-owned EVs are about to flood the market. Is that a good thing?
Pras Subramanian Tue, November 12, 2024
It’s possible that the sheer number of EVs returned off leases, in addition to cheaper EVs coming out in the next few years from the Big Three and rising automakers like Kia and Hyundai, could help fuel a massive wave of more affordable EVs.
 
”We forecast that EV adoption will continue to grow to over 12% [market penetration] in 2026,” Krear said, meaning steady growth from the approximate 8% EV adoption seen today.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cheap-pre-owned-evs-are-about-to-flood-the-market-is-that-a-good-thing-172035546.html
⬇️ slide below

—-
I guess this was due to be next:
 
NEWS: Starting January 1, 2025, the US state of Wisconsin is introducing an electric vehicle (EV) charging tax of 3 cents per kilowatt-hour on the electricity delivered to the car’s battery by a Level 3 charger, or a Level 1 or Level 2 charger installed on or after March 22, 2024.
This would be about $2.40 of tax every time you fully charge a Model Y.
 
Wisconsin electric vehicle charging tax implemented for 2025
https://www.fox6now.com/news/wisconsin-electric-vehicle-charging-tax-2025

—-

Sawyer Merritt
 
Today I checked out Honda’s first all-electric mass market EV, the Prologue. Despite launching in the U.S. just this past April, it’s already the 5th bestselling EV in the country (12,644 units in Q3), and it looks like it’ll overtake the Ford Mach-E soon.
 
First impressions:
• Build quality: It’s good, really good.
• Design: The exterior is ok, but the interior isn’t great. The infotainment display looks like it has graphic design from 25 years ago. …
…

11/9/24, ➡️ https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1855324394672779440
4 pics and more at the link.
 
 < Full of GM parts, as owners are finding out.
2024 Honda Prologue Interior Uses GM Components
GM and Honda have formed a strategic alliance to produce several electric vehicles. One of these new EVs will be the 2024 Honda Prologue, a crossover that will share the BEV3 platform with Chevy Blazer EV. We’ve already known that the Prologue will use GM Ultium batteries and GM Ultium drive motors, and will have similar exterior dimensions to those of the Blazer EV. Now, we’ve gotten our first glimpse of the Honda’s interior, which appears to feature many GM components. …
https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/10/2024-honda-prologue-interior-uses-gm-components/

 
—- Software woes —-
 
GM finally relented and brought in outside help.
 
How GM Fixed The Chevy Blazer EV's Software Issues
A longtime veteran of the tech space with tours at Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and cryptocurrency brokerage firm FalconX, Cetinok is one of several high-profile outside tech-savvy hires GM has brought on in recent months to help reverse its challenges in the battery and software world. (According to InsideEVs' own accounting of GM's woes with the electric Ultium platform, the automaker has been historically resistant to importing outside expertise, favoring in-house solutions instead; that now seems to be changing. It has also faced challenges with battery pack assembly as well, leading to additional EV delays.)
https://insideevs.com/news/711768/gm-chevy-blazer-software-update/

—-

Alex @alex_avoigt
About the VW Rivian JV
In 2019, VW launched the largest software project in the German automotive industry: the CARIAD Software Group. …
The company wanted to build its own vehicle software powerhouse that would not only develop the BEV software but also fully autonomous driving for SAE4 and 5.
At its peak, 6,500 developers were working on the project and it was intended to have 10,000 in order to manage the digital transformation with costs for VW: 12 billion euros.
The project failed…
This week, the Cariad chapter was finally closed with an announcement to work together with Rivian. CARIAD will remain, but the development of the next generation of software will move to the joint venture with Rivian, but whether this will be a successful project remains very questionable….

11/16/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1857875849636389320
 
—-
VW's latest update for ID EVs takes over 5 hours to complete and could brick the car if you don't turn the headlights off automatic before installing.
11/4/24, https://x.com/driveteslaca/status/1853555974730117206
 
Requirements:
“The battery SoC is at least 20%.
The headlights are off (not on automatic).
All windows and doors are fully closed.
There is a stable internet connection.
The expected installation time is approx. 5h 30m. During installation, the vehicle is not usable and cannot be charged.”

—-
Alex @alex_avoigt
🔥 Fire Blankets for BEVs work
Sunday November 10th, at 4:42 PM, a charging Peugeot EV caught fire in the "Europa" business center parking lot in Vilnius. Extensive firefighting resources 🚒🧑‍🚒 were dispatched, including six fire engines and a ladder truck. Firefighters promptly managed the situation by covering the vehicle with a Bridgehill PRO X Car fire blanket and using a powder extinguisher.
Looks cool - literally 🙃 
11/11/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1856020304599851266
  —- 
More pics
11/11/24, ➡️ https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1856020914271351108
 
< This is same strategy used on airplanes
 
[It wouldn’t stop a thermal runaway, but it helps to smother the resultant flames?]

2/2

[Sigmetnow]

NEWS: Two unnamed Nissan executives said the company has "12 to 14 months to survive."
Nissan cut more than 9,000 jobs earlier this month, while simultaneously slashing production by nearly 20%. Nissan's operating profit dropped 85% in Q3.
 
Nissan Has '12 to 14 Months' Left
The company may sell a majority stake to longtime rival Honda.

Things aren't looking good at Nissan. Dealers are selling cars at a loss, production has slowed, and more recently, the company cut thousands of jobs and sold a third of its stake in Mitsubishi. But it all may have been too little too late.

A new report suggests that the automaker's days are numbered. In an interview with the Financial Times, two unnamed Nissan executives said the company has "12 to 14 months to survive." "This is going to be tough. And in the end, we need Japan and the US to be generating cash," they said.
 
The company is reportedly looking for a new long-term investor, such as a bank or large insurance group, to replace some of Renault's equity holdings. The company also hasn't ruled out the possibility of longtime rival Honda taking a majority stake in the company, saying "all options" are on the table. Nissan recently signed a partnership with Honda (and Mitsubishi) for long-term EV development.
 
Renault is even considering selling a portion of its shares to Honda. The French automaker is reportedly looking to restructure its 25-year alliance with Nissan. An unnamed source within the company says that a larger Honda-Nissan partnership would "only be positive" for the French automaker.
 
Slow sales in the US and Japan prompted Nissan to cut more than 9,000 jobs earlier this month, while simultaneously slashing production by nearly 20 percent. Nissan's operating profit dropped 85 percent in the third quarter, with the company earning a net loss of ¥9.3 billion ($60.1 million at today's exchange rate). The company estimates it will save $3 billion by cutting jobs and production as it attempts to restructure.

https://www.motor1.com/news/742467/nissan-12-to-14-months-left-to-survive/

Given that the Nissan LEAF was the most popular EV in the early days (I almost bought one, but decided to wait [years] for the proper Tesla), I asked Grok to outline those early days and what has happened since.
 
You can read it here: https://x.com/i/grok/share/eYizTzWRcOgZKQ6ivZmDV4nrj
 
“Nissan had a significant head start with the LEAF, but it has struggled to maintain its early momentum due to several factors including slower innovation, less aggressive expansion into new EV models, and challenges with battery technology and charging standards. …”
 
Nissan launched the LEAF in 2010, sold over 500,000 worldwide… then no other EV since except the recent Ariva, which has had low sales so far.

—-
NEWS: Ford said it will cut around 14% of its European workforce, blaming losses in recent years amid weak demand for electric vehicles, poor government support for the shift to EVs, and competition from subsidized Chinese rivals.
 
Ford to cut European jobs as EV shift, Chinese rivals take toll
November 20, 2024
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-cut-14-european-jobs-blaming-ev-shift-rising-competition-2024-11-20/

—-
Ford has the highest level of 2024 model year inventory left on dealer lots of any brand – and it isn’t even close, according to new data from S&P Global Mobility. Ford had over 400,000 2024 model year vehicles sitting on dealer lots at the beginning of November, while the next closest brand came in at less than half of that total.
 
October 2024 New Vehicle Inventory: Volumes Still at Post-pandemic Highs
Despite a slight overall increase in total vehicle inventory in the US in October 2024, electric vehicle (EV) inventory has continued to decline, signaling potential challenges in EV demand and production.
https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/october-2024-us-vehicle-inventory-remains-high.html
⬇️  Graph of inventory below.

—-
Lotus abandons plan to go fully electric by 2028
The Geely-owned sports car brand Lotus is shifting away from its plan to produce all-electric models by 2028. The focus is now on extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs). To that end, it is working on ‘Super Hybrid’ technology.
https://www.electrive.com/2024/11/22/lotus-abandons-plan-to-go-fully-electric-by-2028/

—-
< Rivian loses $40k for every vehicle it sells.
But the Biden administration just gave them $6,600,000,000.
 
Elon Musk
They should at least be required to get to positive gross margin with existing models before being given billions for future models
11/26/24, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1861494241790427635

 
Rivian receives conditional commitment from DOE for $6.6B for GA plant - Rivian Newsroom
If finalized, the loan would support the construction of Rivian’s next facility in Georgia, US.
November 25, 2024

IRVINE, California  – American all-electric automaker Rivian Automotive today announced it has received conditional commitment from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing (ATVM) Loan Program for a loan of up to $6.6 billion (including $6 billion of principal and approximately $600 million of capitalized interest) to accelerate its growth and leadership of electric vehicle design, development and manufacturing in the United States.
 
If finalized, the loan would support the construction of Rivian’s next facility in Stanton Springs North, near the city of Social Circle, Georgia, substantially expanding the company’s domestic production capacity to support demand from the United States and international markets. This loan from DOE would provide significant funding for production of the company’s midsize platform, which underpins the R2, a midsize SUV, and the R3/R3X, a midsize crossover. Designed, engineered, and built in America to deliver an incredible combination of capability, function, performance, and pricing, Rivian believes its R2 and R3 vehicle lines will be critical drivers in the company’s long-term growth and profitability.

https://rivian.com/newsroom/article/rivian-receives-conditional-commitment-from-doe-for-6-6b-for-ga-plant

—
GM and other US automakers would take big hit from Trump tariffs
November 26, 2024

"That's how tariffs work. Even though the (Trump) administration might want to spin it that Mexico is paying ... ultimately the consumer will bear this," said Sudeep Suman, a managing partner with consultancy AlixPartners.
 
That could hit many pickup trucks popular in rural parts of the U.S. that overwhelmingly voted for Trump. Notably, the Toyota Tacoma, Ford Maverick, Stellantis' Ram, and GM's Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra are all made in Mexico. …

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/gm-other-us-automakers-would-take-big-hit-trump-tariffs-2024-11-26/
 
Trump's plan to slap a 25% tax on all imports from Mexico would affect pretty much all carmakers (including Tesla), but especially legacy carmakers.
Every Tesla sold in America is built in America, but GM for example makes a lot of ICE car and EVs in Mexico.

⬇️  Inventory levels;  Exports from Mexico.  Click to enhance.

[kiwichick16]

from 1 million to 16 million in 7 years  .......doubling 4 times

https://thedriven.io/2024/11/13/global-ev-sales-heading-for-record-16-7-million-sales-in-2024-despite-reports-of-slowdown/

[Jim Hunt]

Here's my "professional" alter ego's latest article on the wonders of V2x technology:

Europe’s first large-scale car-sharing service utilizing Vehicle-to-Grid technology

https://V2G.co.uk/2024/11/europes-first-large-scale-car-sharing-service-utilizing-vehicle-to-grid-technology/

In response to the massive growth of renewable energy in the Netherlands, Renault Group, We Drive Solar, MyWheels and the City of Utrecht have joined forces to launch Europe’s first large-scale car-sharing service utilizing Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology...

Utrecht is taking a bold step towards more sustainable mobility with this groundbreaking collaboration. This initiative aims to facilitate the large-scale availability of electric shared mobility while offering an innovative way to balance the city’s electric grid through bi-directional charging technology. The Netherlands has become a world leader in the roll-out of solar and wind energy, causing challenges on the electricity grid. Utrecht is one of the most advanced European cities in using renewable energy, with already 35% of all rooftops covered with solar panels.

As part of the agreement signed yesterday at the Dutch embassy in Paris, the partners would deploy a fleet of 500 Renault electric vehicles in Utrecht, initially consisting of the iconic Renault 5. These vehicles, available through a car-sharing service operated by MyWheels, would utilize V2G bi-directional charging technology developed by Mobilize, Renault Group’s brand dedicated to new mobilities. This would mark the first time this technology is used to benefit public infrastructure. 500 bidirectional cars could provide 10% of the needed flexibility in Utrecht Region to balance solar and wind energy for usage during peak-hours...

Vive la V2x R5volution?

[Sigmetnow]

Europe’s first large-scale car-sharing service utilizing Vehicle-to-Grid technology

This may be the most important bit:

We Drive Solar will provide and operate bidirectional charging stations.

 
Increasing numbers of EVs are now capable of V2G.  Expanding where the cars can make that happen is the next big step.

[Jim Hunt]

We Drive Solar will provide and operate bidirectional charging stations.

Were you previously aware that I've met the King of the Netherlands?



#WeDriveTheWind in SW England!

[NeilT]

Not aware but no surprise Jim.

[Richard Rathbone]

Were you previously aware that I've met the King of the Netherlands?

Careful you don't get burnt!
A King is like a fire, too far away and you freeze, too close and you get burnt.
(Old German saying, actually more relevant to the likes of Trump than today's constitutional types)

[kassy]

Lets hope this works as well as our royalty. 

[Sigmetnow]

It’s surprising how many people still know little to nothing about EVs.  Proud owners like to get the word out however they can, and this is a good time of year to do it….
 

Seven Cybertrucks were in yesterday's Montreal Santa Claus Parade, each towing a float. About 300,000 people go to the parade each year.

11/24/24, ➡️ https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1860862536117080414
11 sec. Timelapse. Quick clip of each of the vehicles and its float.
 
Full vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbypv2wgLpI&feature=youtu.be

   —-

Ryan Shaw
 
Picked this up at Costco tonight, so I decided to plug it into the Cybertruck's bed for fun. So many people taking photos, looking, and asking questions as a result!
 
Some had never seen the bed of a Cybertruck. I actually find that quite common. Many don't even know it has a bed, let alone power.
 
Now I need to mount some Christmas lights with magnets 🎄

11/27/24, https://x.com/ryanshawtech/status/1861680986070884584
⬇️ Photo below.  Brightly lit Christmas tree made up of hundreds of tiny light strings.
 
< Yep. I leave the tonneau open when I park as much as possible. The Sentry videos I get show that people linger and look longer when it's open vs. closed.
 
< Someone asked me if it’s full of batteries back there. Should have seen their face when I opened it 🤣
 
< Do the outlets stay on while driving? If so, you are required to drive around like this until Christmas, just sayin
[Yes, they do. So you can power, e.g., a fridge or freezer while you are underway.]

[Sigmetnow]

Europe’s first large-scale car-sharing service utilizing Vehicle-to-Grid technology

 

This may be the most important bit:

We Drive Solar will provide and operate bidirectional charging stations.

 
Increasing numbers of EVs are now capable of V2G.  Expanding where the cars can make that happen is the next big step.

 

Were you previously aware that I've met the King of the Netherlands?

I was thinking of “where” as more along the lines of making V2G chargers available in public and ride-share parking lots, versus residential chargers with only limited/private access, but OK.

[Jim Hunt]

Lets hope this works as well as our royalty. 

Personally I think the late Great British Queen had a much finer carriage, not to mention a much more regal wave!

[Jim Hunt]

This is not funny any more:

https://bsky.app/profile/jim-hunt.bsky.social/post/3lc4g7bzbbc2d

Hi Heidi

[Sigmetnow]

—- Stellantis CEO resigns
 

Stellantis reveals 'multi-energy' EV truck platform that's 'well-positioned' for the market, CEO says
November 19, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stellantis-reveals-multi-energy-ev-truck-platform-thats-well-positioned-for-the-market-ceo-says-181507112.html

 
As posted above, two weeks ago, Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares was touting his 'multi-energy' EV truck platform as the solution for the company’s poor sales.  His own contract ran until 2026.  Today, he is resigning.
 
Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares resigns
Sun, December 1, 2024

MILAN (Reuters) -Stellantis Chief Executive Carlos Tavares has resigned, the maker of Jeep, Fiat and Puegeot cars said on Sunday, adding it aimed to find a new head in the first half of [next] year.
 
Previously regarded as one of the most respected executives in the auto industry, Tavares came under strong criticism earlier this year after Stellantis issued a profit warning on its 2024 results, including a forecast for a cash burn of up to 10 billion euros, mostly blaming slow sales and bloating inventories in its key North American market.
 
"The Company's Board of Directors, under the Chairmanship of John Elkann, accepted Carlos Tavares' resignation today from his role as Chief Executive Officer with immediate effect," Stellantis said in a statement.
…
Tavares was previously expected to retire at the end of his mandate, in early 2026.
 
Tavares has led Stellantis, the world's fourth largest carmaker by sales, since its creation in early 2021, through the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot owner PSA. …

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stellantis-ceo-carlos-tavares-resigns-192211706.html

 
—- VW rejects union cost-savings solution; strike is called

Alex @alex_avoigt
 
VWs management has rightly rejected the offers of the union and the works council to reduce costs because they were cosmetic and do not address the real structural problem of the Group.
 
IG Metall is therefore calling for nationwide warning strikes at Volkswagen this Monday. "Warn strikes will begin at all plants on Monday," Thorsten Gröger, IG Metall district manager for Lower Saxony.

12/1/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1863198164557160625
 
Volkswagen brushes off union's cost savings proposals
Fri, November 29, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/volkswagen-brushes-off-unions-cost-153335205.html

   —-

Alex @alex_avoigt
 
🇩🇪 German Auto Industry in Free Fall
 
An automotive industry study from EY shows the devastating situation the German Auto industry is in.
 
VW Group, Mercedes, BMW Profit: €7.1 Bn
Compared to Q3 2023 about -50% Profit
Q3 Revenue €145Bn or -6% (-18% in 1H24)
Due to the slump in profits, the margin, which measures operating profit in relation to turnover, almost halved to 4.9 percent.
 
Suzuki was the most profitable car manufacturer globally in Q3 with 12.7 percent ahead of Kia (10.9 percent) and Tesla (10.8 percent).
 
Q3 Profits:
Mercedes 7.3%
BMW 5.2%
VW 3.6%
 
EY industry expert Constantin Gall said: “The German car manufacturers in particular have had a pitch-black quarter.” …
 
“There is fierce cut-throat competition in China, which is heavily centered on price. There is currently not much to be gained here for the established companies,” said Gall.
 
To give just one example of many, the registration figures from data provider MarkLines show that no month since May has seen more than 100 EQS, i.e. the electric S-Class, Mercedes' flagship BEV, registered. A market in which Mercedes currently sells a third of all its cars and which is also considered irreplaceable for the company. …

11/30/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1862816621523284197
 
   -—
Why such slow sales of the Mercedes EQS EV?
The answers may include its high price, oversupply, and depreciation rate that loses nearly half of the car’s value after just one year of ownership.
 
More here: https://x.com/i/grok/share/DRotuuOawPswYc4McWbEcu3GY
With links to 15 relevant web pages.

—-
BMW i5 sales in China. BMW sells per day 2-3 vehicles across all of China through its approximately 650 dealerships. In other words, BMW sells on average one i5 per month per dealer.
11/30/24, ➡️  https://x.com/alojoh/status/1862901513930027047
Infographic at the link.  Price ~$48k in China
 
—-
The Tesla Model Y is the second best-selling car in China, barely beaten by a model at half the price. 🇨🇳
11/29/24, https://x.com/piloly/status/1862582355468152945
The BYD Qin PLUS.  ⬇️ Graph below.  What will be the impact of Tesla's compact car next year?

—-
India has changed its plans to give subsidies to automakers building new factories in the country, which it offered in a bid to attract Tesla. Tesla backed off from its India plans earlier this year, so the incentives will be now be offered to automakers building models at existing factories in the country.  Gas and hybrid vehicles may also be made at those factories, but the investment must include at least $500 million to manufacture EVs in India, the electric models must be built on a separate production line, and must still meet the 50% local sourcing criteria.
 
India to expand EV manufacturing incentives after Tesla disappointment, source says
November 29, 2024
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/india-expand-ev-manufacturing-incentives-after-tesla-disappointment-source-says-2024-11-29/

[Sigmetnow]

Interesting:
Only 20 to 30% of people buying a less expensive EV (Hyundai, KiA or Toyota) said tax credits and incentives were a primary reason for their vehicle selection. This suggests affordability at the lower MSRPs was not the biggest obstacle.
 

NEWS: According to a new J.D. Power study, federal tax credits have played a critical role in consumer decisions: Among premium brand EV owners, 64% say that incentives were a primary driver of their decision to purchase or lease their EV. Among mass market EV owners, 49% selected their vehicle based on tax credits & incentives.
 
More specifically, the survey found VW, Chevrolet, and Tesla owners were the most heavily influenced by the incentives: Tax credits and incentive programs were cited as the top reason for purchase among 81% of Volkswagen buyers, 77% of Chevrolet buyers, and 72% of Tesla buyers.
 
By contrast, only 32% of Hyundai buyers, 24% of Kia buyers, and 21% of Toyota buyers said tax credits and incentives were a primary reason for their vehicle selection.
 
Source: https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/volkswagen-chevrolet-and-tesla-purchases-are-highly-dependent-on-ev-rebates-jd-powers/
 

11/30/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1862899019057434753

====
 
Thinking of trying to trick your EV into supporting V2X?  Not a good idea.
 

Jeremy Judkins
Today I learned there is a device you can connect to your Tesla's NACS port and you can use it to power devices just like you would with the Cybertruck.
Has anyone heard of this device or used it?
It's really expensive so I'm not about to buy it just to try it out.
It claims it works with ALL TESLAS.
  —-
< Jim McPherson
I looked into it earlier this week.
 
It looks like it uses the CCS protocol to expose your batteries direct voltage to the inverter. So it converts ~400VDC to 120VAC. It’s inherently expensive to build a power supply to do that. So it’s not a scam. 
 
I’m steering clear though as this is easily traceable by Tesla and will void your battery warranty.
   —-
From Tesla’s perspective it is battery wear without miles driven. For that reason using a car battery as a power source like this is specifically called out as disallowed.

11/29/24, https://x.com/jeremyjudkins_/status/1862528940264628315
 
{Before the Cybertruck, Tesla always said that their batteries were not designed to be used as an external energy source, and doing so would cause damage. Good to keep in mind that EV battery packs, and battery management software, must be specifically built to be used for V2X.}

[Rascal Dog]

Interesting:
Only 20 to 30% of people buying a less expensive EV (Hyundai, KiA or Toyota) said tax credits and incentives were a primary reason for their vehicle selection. This suggests affordability at the lower MSRPs was not the biggest obstacle.

Ah...Maybe something else. Those EVs are not eligible for Federal tax credit.

So the Federal tax credit and at least some State credits are not available for a purchase. The loophole is leasing, the leasing company gets tax credits, so they can offer a cheaper lease. Perhaps it is not always clear to the buyer that is the case.

[Sigmetnow]

EV Battery Will Soon Be Cheaper To Replace Than Gas Engine

Car research firm Recurrent has a new report claiming that EV battery replacement will cost less than replacing a gas engine by 2030. This is based on estimates pointing to lower costs for battery metals, cheaper chemistries like LFP (which GM is considering for electric trucks), higher energy density packs, and recycling and reuse of mined materials.
 
Recurrent presents a wide range of predictions for EV battery pack costs in 2030. Goldman Sachs estimates $64/kWh by 2030, and EMI estimates a pack price of anywhere from $45-65/kWh. Chinese battery manufacturers CATL and BYD are already offering LFP cells for as low as $56/kWh, so these optimistic estimates are based on cost reductions that are already happening.
 
The Recurrent report gives the following examples to make the case for electric vehicle battery replacement getting cheaper than ICE replacement: “This puts pack prices at or under $50/kWh. For a huge 100 kWh pack, replacement costs might be $4500-$5000, or $3,375 for a more standard 75 kWh pack. That’s on par with an engine replacement!”
 
Recurrent, using data from RMI, points out advancements in chemistry change, density improvement, recycling, and second-life use that reduce the demand for rare earth minerals in EV battery packs.
 
The study also predicts a future where EV owners will be able to sell the old battery pack in their vehicle and replace it with a new one, extending the life of the car. Today, a battery pack over 10 years old has little value, but Recurrent sees that changing soon with a growing market for second-life batteries with use cases like energy storage or backup power. Another option it predicts for future owners is buying a cheap, used electric vehicle and replacing the battery “for a few thousand dollars.”

Prohibitively high costs have consistently been a top reason in surveys for drivers’ reluctance to buy an EV. However, Recurrent optimistically predicts that price parity between new EVs and similar gas-powered vehicles will happen as soon as 2026. Coincidentally, 2026 is the model year when the next-generation Chevy Bolt EV is expected to arrive, which GM has said will be the most affordable electric vehicle in the U.S.

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2024/12/ev-battery-will-soon-be-cheaper-to-replace-than-gas-engine-report/

——
GM to sell stake in battery cell plant to joint venture partner LG Energy Solution for roughly $1 billion

DETROIT — General Motors plans to sell its stake in a $2.6 billion electric vehicle battery cell plant in Michigan to its joint venture partner LG Energy Solution, the automaker announced Monday.
…
The nearly completed, 2.8 million-square-foot plant in Lansing, Michigan, was expected to be the third battery cell facility of the joint venture, known as Ultium Cells LLC, following plants in Ohio and Tennessee that have already opened and are operational.
The Lansing plant was announced in January 2022, and the two companies first announced their joint venture five years ago.

GM’s move comes as the automaker attempts to right size production of EVs and confronts slower-than-expected consumer demand. It also comes amid uncertainty regarding federal incentives for manufacturing and purchasing EVs in the U.S. under President-elect Donald Trump.

The automaker said the sale does not affect its overall ownership stake in the joint venture or its future plans for a separate joint venture plant with LGES rival Samsung SDI.
…
Separate from the sale of its stake in the Lansing facility, GM on Monday announced it will extend a 14-year battery technology partnership with LGES to include the development of an emerging type of battery cell called prismatic cells.

Prismatic cells are a flat, rectangular shape with a rigid enclosure, which allows for space-efficient packaging within battery modules and packs. GM said the cells are expected to reduce EV weights and costs, while simplifying manufacturing by reducing the number of modules and mechanical components.
…
GM had previously said it planned to expand its battery cell technologies from its flat “Ultium” pouches to include other forms such as prismatic cells.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/02/gm-battery-cell-plant-lg.html

Pouch Cells can be made to fit into irregular spaces, making them highly space-efficient. They can be stacked or folded to maximize energy density in battery packs.  But they are more susceptible to swelling and physical damage since they lack a hard casing. This can lead to safety concerns like leakage or short circuits if not managed properly. Thermal Management can be challenging due to the flexible packaging, which might not dissipate heat as effectively.

Prismatic Cells can offer good space efficiency but with the added benefit of a rigid structure, making them easier to pack tightly.  The hard casing can offer better safety compared to pouch cells, although not as effective as cylindrical cells in terms of heat dissipation. They can be more costly to manufacture compared to cylindrical cells due to the need for specific machinery and tooling. While better than pouch cells, they still might not manage heat as well as cylindrical cells.

Cylindrical Cells often have consistent performance due to their uniform shape. The manufacturing process is well-established, leading to lower defect rates, and the metal casing provides additional protection against physical damage. They have a better surface area to volume ratio, which can help in managing heat more effectively, reducing the risk of thermal runaway. However, they are less space-efficient when packing into battery packs, leading to less energy density at the pack level due to the need for space between cells for cooling and structural support.

 
——
NEWS: Redwood Materials founder and Tesla co-founder and Tesla Board Member JB Straubel says Redwood is on track to hit $200 million in revenue this year, and that this year, the company is pulling enough lithium & nickel out of recycled batteries to supply 250,000 EVs.
 
Under a Trump administration, JB Straubel said, he imagines the new administration could return to the original intent, tightening the link between the tax credits for consumers and the localization of the supply chain for the new battery factories being built in the U.S.
 
In turn, Straubel said, fewer cars would initially qualify for those incentives while the supply chain is built out. That change would seem to meet Trump’s objective of slashing spending.
 
“It’s faster and quicker to do—it doesn’t literally take an act of Congress to change the IRA.…it’s a Treasury rule,” said Straubel, who helped officials in Washington craft the original legislation.
11/30/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1862900135014940999
 
In the Desert With an EV Entrepreneur
CEO JB Straubel says his battery-recycling startup, Redwood Materials, is on track to generate about $200 million in sales this year
Nov. 30, 2024

There’s a storm on the horizon—literally and figuratively. It isn’t clear where the EV industry is going with electric-car sales failing to excite investors as they once did, and President-elect Donald Trump criticizing incentives aimed at boosting sales.

Even so, Redwood Materials founder and CEO JB Straubel brims with optimism for the electric-vehicle market he helped create and his plans for again disrupting another industry: mining.

His thoughts about the EV business carry added heft because of his résumé: He played a crucial role in the creation of Tesla. He left as its chief technology officer in 2019 to run Redwood Materials, and he is now on the electric-car pioneer’s board.

Redwood is on track to generate about $200 million of revenue this year, he told me during my visit, the first time Redwood has publicly revealed such figures.

Instead of depending on messy and expensive mining operations for the critical minerals used in lithium-ion batteries, Straubel’s Redwood aims to extract those elements from used-up batteries. Or, in other words, he is trying to mine what some would consider trash to power an EV future.

We began the tour of his operations in that desert patch passing row after row of boxes and crates filled with batteries pulled from cars and gadgets that Redwood will break down through a chemical process. This year, he is pulling enough lithium and nickel out of recycled batteries to supply 20 gigawatt hours of lithium-ion batteries, or roughly equivalent to 250,000 electric vehicles.

“It feels a bit like we are inventing the next generation of refineries—so to speak,” Straubel told me…
..
Straubel tells me he is building his business on the belief that the auto industry is going to electrify and there will be crushing demand for key ingredients, many of which mostly come from Asia currently. And, he said, he sees a way for parts of the IRA to survive in a Trump 2.0 presidency that focuses on building out a U.S. supply chain to be less dependent on foreign sources and to create jobs.

While the IRA has helped spur battery-plant investments, the part of the supply chain—including where Redwood operates—that feeds those factories hasn’t followed.

That means the materials Straubel is recycling are being sent to battery suppliers overseas.
…

He imagines cathode—a key part of the battery—being produced on U.S. soil and his property. It is a prospect that would involve investments and jobs, the sort of thing that appealed to Trump during his first administration.

As we drive around the Redwood property, we stop at the building site for a 325,000-square-foot factory that will produce the cathode. It is one of five planned on the site. The first building aims to start producing materials by 2026 and make enough for roughly 250,000 vehicles, primarily for customers like Toyota Motor and Panasonic.

The company has invested $850 million already on the Sparks site, well on its way to meet a $1 billion commitment by 2032 as part of an incentive package with the state of Nevada. In total, Redwood has announced plans to invest several billions dollars on the 300 acres. …

https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-founder-straubel-ev-trump-admin-3756fcb1