It has been an interesting read, as I haven't been on this new cars thread before.
I have a few comments.
On the transition to EV and the reduction in CO2, I note the following trend in CO2 growth per annum.
The line for the 2010's average is going to be over 2ppm. For the 2020's it will be the first time we have recorded every single year over 2ppm growth.
In short what we are doing, today, is not cutting it.
On the whole "traditional car manufacturers will be dead by 2040" subject, it is worth looking at this chart.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#pastfutureCurrent population at 7.7bn. In 2040, when most developed world restrictions on the sale of FF cars kick in, there will be 9bn people on the planet. A whole new 2.3bn people as present and future consumers of non EV vehicles. Granted the markets will transition from the current 1st world to current 3rd world countries, but it will continue. I don't see their demise any time soon. Although things are going to be fairly bumpy if they don't start getting their factories out of the traditional places. Along with the attendant job losses that come with it.
I continue to contend that Tesla is a technology company. Granted that technology is manifesting in physical product in the first instance. But there is a future to be experienced.
Let me digress for a short while. Who remembers the Internet in 1992? A few of us I'm sure. How many would have predicted what the Internet would become? I suggest NONE of us. This is because our lives gave us no plane of reference for the changes the Internet was going to place upon them.
So whilst there has been some interesting discussion on where the combination of EV, public EV transport and EV ride hailing will go. There has been little actual putting the pieces together into an integrated whole.
Let us take the commute first. So we have a combination of commute types from the suburbs to large inner cities. Some drive to the train station and park the car, bite the cost of parking then take the train to work. Some are lucky and can take a lift with a partner to the train station and then get the train. Others are not so lucky, can't/won't afford the cost of the parking, on top of the train ticket (literally up to £7,000 per year) and simply drive to work.
Autonomous driving gives them more options. Take the car to the train station and then it goes home and charges up on the solar, which is available during the day but not at night when they get home. It comes back for you at night.
Put this together with ride hailing and robotaxi and your car can then pick someone up on the way home (or do a series of rides), generating a bit of the train fair back. Home time and the car does a bit of ride sharing on the way to the train station and takes you home.
So things move on. However nothing stands still and neither will this. Computers and vertical (as opposed to fully thinking), AI, come into play. Now we factor EV, Autonomous driving and intelligent ride hailing into an integrated transport system. Because we don't need drivers, the vehicles can sit at optimal points waiting for a call.
This is where the intelligent part comes in. As the AI learns the demand, daily, and the locations of the types of rides, it can position transport where it is needed. Potential single vehicles out of heavily travelled routes and then gradually larger vehicles (up to full sized busses), where the demand is greater. Peak periods see all types of transport on the go, but as demand drops, the larger vehicles stop off at charging points and go quiet until needed again.
This can all be managed by very smart software which can predict demand and cope with sudden peaks by mapping in routes of vehicles already running to destinations. There will no longer be such a thing as going to the bus stop, you will call your ride and wait at home to be picked up.
Even smarter systems may use hubs and 1 or 2 ride changes to feed smaller routes into larger routes which can be serviced by larger vehicles.
Back in the 90's I worked with a guy who said "I'd love to use public transport, just so long as it picks me up from my doorstep, takes me to my work door and brings me back to my doorstep at the end of the day"
With a smart integrated transport network and robotaxi vehicles, that is a reality waiting to happen.
This kind of transport infrastructure will drive the requirement for every type of vehicle, from single seater "buggies" to minvans, to full sized EV busses. There is a whole market out there.
On the Tesla will die front.
I've mentioned this a few times but it bears mentioning again. The EU vehicle manufacturing giants are pledging tens of billions of euro on "projected" vehicle manufacturing capacity. Yet they don't have a solution for, even, getting their batteries for these vehicles in volume. They don't have the factories to build them and are intending to build new one's. But not at Gigafactory3 speed but at EU construction speed. Or, in other words, 2-3 years from breaking ground to being fully operational.
Meanwhile Gigafactory3 will be fully operational by EOY 2019 and fully ramped up by end of H1 2020. Tesla will probably start working on Gigafactory4 at the end of 2020 or early 2021. In the EU and inside the tariff barriers. By 2025 Tesla, from Giga2/3/4 will have the capacity to manufacture around 1.5m vehicles per year. Also Tesla will have 4 models SX3Y, a pickup, the Semi and, probably, anther completely different range. They will be working on HW5 for their self drive compute capability with HW4 fully delivered and in place. Ride hailing software will be written and fully functioning. FSD will be a reality, whether it will be allowed or not is another matter entirely, but I assume that Uber and others will have blazed that trail already.
Add to that Tesla insurance, which will be far more profitable than traditional insurance as they will not have to carry the high load of human accidents and it will probably be much more profitable than traditional insurance.
All of this will allow Tesla to drive down prices on their models to make them even more competitive with the incumbents.
With Tesla sourcing its own components and with their battery tech, I would not bet against a ~$20k budget range which has much lower mileage and very basic features. Taking the fight to the incumbents even more.
Remember this is all by 2025. When are the incumbents targeting this level of penetration into the EV market? Generally, if you read their blurb, around 2030, when the earliest large barriers emerge for ICE vehicle sales in the 1st world. (I don't count Norway, it's a rounding error on this scale).
On top of this Musk has already hinted that Tesla is looking to secure its own Lithium sources (probably cobalt too), through acquisition, probably and they already have bought battery tech to make their existing tech better.
Note I haven't even talked about solar roof's or powerwalls. They're important in the scheme of things but inconsequential in term of Tesla survival.
Whilst all of this is going on in the next 5 years, the incumbents will be shedding workers and causing mayhem in the GDP figures of the EU (and other), economies. Governments are going to intervene and levy costs on these manufacturers. Already we see huge issues in France, Belgium, Spain and Germany when workforces are reduced due to lack of sales or income. This will hit the bottom line of these manufacturers and limit their ability to compete effectively with Tesla.
To say that Tesla is going to be swallowed up as a given is a very narrow minded view of the world. I don't see it as being certain at all. Very possible if they really screw up, but that screw up is not coming any time soon as I see it.
I have already posted the stats on how the i-Pace, e-tron and others are not going to compete with the Model 3. They compete with the Models S and X. Even less will they compete with the Model Y. Their volume, today, is low. Very low. Tesla is already outselling Jaguar ICE car full year sales in just over 6 months. When Gigafactory3 gets online and going they are going to outsell Jaguar cars in 4 months or less. Eventually they will outsell the entire market of JLR combined in about 8 months.
It is far, far, more likely that JLR will go under than Tesla will. As it stands today.
Our world of cars is going to change. Radically. Over the next decade to decade and a half. The saddest part is that it is going to make not one single dent in our world CO2 footprint. It's just going to lower the curve a bit.
