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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #100 on: June 22, 2019, 07:13:08 PM »
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Tom_Mazanec

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SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #102 on: August 10, 2019, 01:04:06 AM »
The Trump Administration Killed a Self-Driving Car Committee — and Didn’t Tell Members
https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/9/20791454/trump-obama-autonomous-self-driving-car-group-apple-zipcar-uber-lyft

An all-star team of transpo bigwigs had just one meeting before the DOT went radio silent

The Trump administration quietly terminated an Obama-era federal committee on automation in transportation earlier this year, the Department of Transportation confirmed to The Verge this week. What’s more, the DOT never informed some members that the advisory group didn’t exist anymore, including Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger, Zipcar founder Robin Chase, Apple vice president Lisa Jackson, and even the committee’s own vice chair, The Verge has learned.

... The group was brought together “to serve as a critical resource for the Department [of Transportation] in framing federal policy for the continued development and deployment of automated transportation,” according to its landing page on the DOT’s website.

The committee held its lone meeting on January 16th, 2017, four days before Trump’s inauguration. The DOT never called the committee to meet again, and the press release detailing it was scrubbed from the DOT’s website sometime around April of this year, according to the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine.

The committee’s dissolution comes at a critical moment in the development of automated vehicles in the United States. During the two-plus years that it sat dormant, multiple companies have rolled out small commercial fleets of automated vehicles that perform a variety of tasks. Big money is pouring into some of the most visible companies in the space. And there’s been a human cost, too: one of Uber’s prototype autonomous vehicles killed a pedestrian in Arizona in 2018, and at least two people were killed while using Tesla’s Autopilot suite of driver assistance systems.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #103 on: August 10, 2019, 04:14:54 AM »
^^ That's a strange development.


My recollection is that DARPA initiated the robo-vehicle movement by hosting the cross country driverless challenges held yearly from Barstow to Las Vegas. They even paid off the million dollar prize!
Self driving tanks, flame throwers, howitzers and grenade launchers were assumed to be the applications they had in mind.


Advanced autonomous robots that could be deployed against the enemy du jour could be a cost effective method of conducting the endless wars that DARPA is tasked with fighting, and it would make the selling of these wars much easier on the home front.


------------


People like to drive. Even Tesla offers a "driving game" designed to relieve the boredom when your vehicle has stripped the drivers of the joy of driving the open highway.


Is there just a whiff of irony in the above?
Terry

vox_mundi

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #104 on: August 11, 2019, 12:29:00 AM »
Not to worry Terry, the military is still 'all-in' in the autonomous vehicle arena. This is just typical White House pigheadedness.When I have more time I'll post more on AI. robots and the military.

--------------------

Army Futures Command (AFC) commander Gen. John Murray briefed reporters on Thursday ... what's coming down the pipe to help soldiers win the conflicts of the future.

... There are "pretty much autonomous systems" operating in the air and on the sea already, and the commercial industry is plowing ahead on getting autonomous vehicles on highways, Murray said, but the idea of having fully autonomous vehicles drive cross-country is another issue entirely.

"If you're going completely cross-country, there are no lane markings, there are no street signs, there's no vehicles around you ... to help you identify where you are," Murray said. "That's not anything that's coming in the near-term (6 month-1 year), but as we start to look and increment out what comes next (5-10yr), I think that's probably it."

Murray said that using AI to acquire targets may reduce the possibility of deadly mistakes.

"I just remember back ... working with kids we were going to put behind the main gun of a [tank]. If you were 80% accurate using flash cards, like I learned math in high school, you went behind it,"
he said.

-------------------

Daniel Dravit: ... Ohhh him there with the five-and-a-half hat size has the makings of a bloody hero!

- The Man Who Would Be King (1975)
« Last Edit: August 11, 2019, 03:06:54 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #105 on: August 11, 2019, 06:39:49 AM »
Not to worry Terry, the military is still 'all-in' in the autonomous vehicle arena. This is just typical White House pigheadedness.When I have more time I'll post more on AI. robots and the military.

--------------------

Army Futures Command (AFC) commander Gen. John Murray briefed reporters on Thursday ... what's coming down the pipe to help soldiers win the conflicts of the future.

... There are "pretty much autonomous systems" operating in the air and on the sea already, and the commercial industry is plowing ahead on getting autonomous vehicles on highways, Murray said, but the idea of having fully autonomous vehicles drive cross-country is another issue entirely.

"If you're going completely cross-country, there are no lane markings, there are no street signs, there's no vehicles around you ... to help you identify where you are," Murray said. "That's not anything that's coming in the near-term (6 month-1 year), but as we start to look and increment out what comes next (5-10yr), I think that's probably it."

Murray said that using AI to acquire targets may reduce the possibility of deadly mistakes.

"I just remember back ... working with kids we were going to put behind the main gun of a [tank]. If you were 80% accurate using flash cards, like I learned math in high school, you went behind it," he said.

-------------------

Daniel Dravit: ... Ohhh him there with the five-and-a-half hat size has the makings of a bloody hero!

The Man Who Would Be King (1975)
Well that's certainly reassuring. :P
Terry

vox_mundi

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #106 on: August 15, 2019, 11:26:33 PM »
UPS Has Been Delivering Cargo in Self-Driving Trucks for Months And No One Knew
https://gizmodo.com/ups-has-been-delivering-cargo-in-self-driving-trucks-fo-1837272680

The self-driving freight truck startup TuSimple has been carrying mail across the state of Arizona for several weeks.

UPS announced on Thursday that its venture capital arm has made a minority investment in TuSimple. The announcement also revealed that since May TuSimple autonomous trucks have been hauling UPS loads on a 115-mile route between Phoenix and Tucson.

TuSimple claims it can cut the average cost of shipping in a tractor-trailer by 30 percent.


Warning: Turn audio down.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #107 on: August 16, 2019, 03:27:09 AM »
UPS Has Been Delivering Cargo in Self-Driving Trucks for Months And No One Knew
...

I wonder if the truck has been pre-programmed to be in a specific lane, regardless of other traffic.  (Like a Cadillac CT6, although with that you can change lanes manually, without disengaging the system.)  In the 3+ lanes segment, many cars were passing the truck on the right. (Around 2:15 in, or ~25+ minutes on their time-lapse.)
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 03:54:20 AM by Sigmetnow »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #108 on: August 16, 2019, 09:20:33 PM »
Quote
... I wonder if the truck has been pre-programmed to be in a specific lane, regardless of other traffic.

UPS monitors everything, especially speed limits. Sensors inside the truck monitor everything from whether the driver’s seat belt is buckled to how hard they’re braking, and if the truck’s doors are open or closed. All this data is compiled for UPS analysts who use it to come up with time-saving tactics.

Certain states outlaw Trucks in the left lane on Interstates. Other states require all vehicles to stay out of the left lane except to pass another vehicle. Many states’ laws say that you must stay in the right lanes if you’re driving slower than either the normal or legal rate of speed, unless you’re passing someone or making a legal left turn.

'No Trucks in the Left Lane' Laws by State
https://injury.findlaw.com/car-accidents/no-trucks-in-the-left-lane-laws-by-state.html

In Arizona:

- Must drive in right lane if driving slower than normal speed of traffic, except to pass another vehicle or turn left.
- Certain vehicles over 26,000 lbs. (or if pulling pole trailer over 6,000 lbs.) must use specific lanes if designated to do so by local authority.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #109 on: August 16, 2019, 09:41:27 PM »
Quote
... I wonder if the truck has been pre-programmed to be in a specific lane, regardless of other traffic.
...
Certain states outlaw Trucks in the left lane on Interstates.

Unless I’m mistaken, the truck at the stretch I mentioned was in the middle of three lanes, and cars were passing it in the right (slower) lane (which I think is illegal) which indicates the truck was going slower than the flow of traffic.  A Tesla using Nav on Autopilot would have moved into the right lane in such a situation.  That’s why I wondered if the trucks are using a simple “follow this line” programming, on a fixed route and in pre-determined lanes, and does not have any traffic-flow intelligence — other than perhaps traffic-aware cruise control (i.e., don‘t run into the car ahead of you in your lane), and I’m not sure the video even showed any instances of that:-\
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vox_mundi

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #110 on: August 16, 2019, 10:24:38 PM »
Truckers can't use the left lane and and they HATE using the right (slow) lane because of traffic from onramps. Braking and speeding up are inefficient for large trucks. That leaves the middle lane. The goal is to maintain a constant 65-68 mph for the entire trip.

Sadly, many non-truckers have absolutely no concept how to use freeway ramps - onramps in particular - and frequently cut in front of truck traffic that's going 20-30 MPH faster than they are. 40 tons of 'road locomotive' does not stop on a dime.

Since the vehicle is programmed not to exceed the speed limit it's probably happy to have people passing on either side. Less chance for an accident.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #111 on: August 17, 2019, 02:02:16 AM »
Truckers can't use the left lane and and they HATE using the right (slow) lane because of traffic from onramps. Braking and speeding up are inefficient for large trucks. That leaves the middle lane. The goal is to maintain a constant 65-68 mph for the entire trip.

Sadly, many non-truckers have absolutely no concept how to use freeway ramps - onramps in particular - and frequently cut in front of truck traffic that's going 20-30 MPH faster than they are. 40 tons of 'road locomotive' does not stop on a dime.

Since the vehicle is programmed not to exceed the speed limit it's probably happy to have people passing on either side. Less chance for an accident.

Avoiding the merging traffic makes sense.  But... I watched the video again, and the truck does slow down, multiple times, to 10 or even 15 mph below the speed limit, when cars merge in front of it.  It seems to maintain a huge following distance to whatever car is in front of it at speed  — maybe 4 or 5 semi-truck lengths — and it obeys the speed limit to the point where it’s almost always the slowest thing on the road.  Even other semis pass it. 
Quote
In Arizona:
- Must drive in right lane if driving slower than normal speed of traffic, except to pass another vehicle or turn left.

So it does ignore this law, when it stays in the middle lane while faster traffic moves by in the left and right lanes, even though it does handle merging vehicles just fine.  It’s definitely a conservative program, and I bet it is “lane locked.”  That kind of driving would never work in Los Angeles*, for example, where even Tesla’s “Mad Max” setting is not aggressive enough. ;)  But it’s an interesting experiment for trucks in what looks like a rather rural section of Arizona.

*Edit:  Actually, it’s likely this truck only has the programming to drive this one specific route.

Another edit:  A post re the Tesla electric semi (and recent performance testing thereof) in the Electric Cars thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2686.msg222775.html#msg222775
« Last Edit: August 17, 2019, 02:12:13 PM by Sigmetnow »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #112 on: August 17, 2019, 11:50:12 PM »
2 things to remember when watching that video

The video is sped up 16× so the illusion of vehicles passing it might not as very apparent in real time.

They're driving in the rain so the system was compensating while the drivers that were passing may not have.

Having lived in Arizona for 8 years and driven that route, I can attest that drivers drive stupid in the rain. Too fast for the conditions.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #113 on: August 18, 2019, 12:49:34 AM »
2 things to remember when watching that video

The video is sped up 16× so the illusion of vehicles passing it might not as very apparent in real time.

They're driving in the rain so the system was compensating while the drivers that were passing may not have.

Having lived in Arizona for 8 years and driven that route, I can attest that drivers drive stupid in the rain. Too fast for the conditions.
Waiting for them to try it on a run up to Flagstaff in February. ::)
Terry

vox_mundi

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #114 on: August 18, 2019, 01:14:18 AM »
I worked a year up in Flag; '97 if I recall.

36" of snow in the middle of January

I-40 backed up 20 miles, SUV's flipped on their roofs.

I think the state of AZ owns 2 snowplows.

It was a very interesting year.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #115 on: August 18, 2019, 02:03:27 AM »
I worked a year up in Flag; '97 if I recall.

36" of snow in the middle of January

I-40 backed up 20 miles, SUV's flipped on their roofs.

I think the state of AZ owns 2 snowplows.

It was a very interesting year.


I managed to get snow bound in El Paso one winter.
Rigs flipped in both directions on I-10
I don't think anyone there had ever seen a snowplow. :)
Terry

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #116 on: August 18, 2019, 05:17:13 AM »
When I was at university (Edit: 1970s) most of two hundred miles north of El Paso, Texas, an 8" snow fall (extremely rare for there) was followed by weeks of freezing weather (not rare), so the snow didn't melt.  The town or county put bulldozers and road-graters to work.  One road-grater cut too low and ripped out a half kilometer of pavement; so much for that experiment.  I commuted by bicycle and learned how to ride on ice.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2019, 12:09:53 AM by Tor Bejnar »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #117 on: August 18, 2019, 01:40:55 PM »
When I was at university (1070s) most of two hundred miles north of El Paso, Texas, an 8" snow fall (extremely rare for there) was followed by weeks of freezing weather (not rare), so the snow didn't melt.  The town or county put bulldozers and road-graters to work.  One road-grater cut too low and ripped out a half kilometer of pavement; so much for that experiment.  I commuted by bicycle and learned how to ride on ice.

 :o They let you use kilometers?  In Texas?!  ;D

In New York City, they put snow plows on garbage trucks when needed.  Those folks know the streets!  8)
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blumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #118 on: August 18, 2019, 03:28:11 PM »

 :o They let you use kilometers?  In Texas?!  ;D


... 8" snow ...

Just saying, but mixing metrics and imperial like that has killed one or another megaproject. ;)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #119 on: August 18, 2019, 08:17:36 PM »

 :o They let you use kilometers?  In Texas?!  ;D


... 8" snow ...
A very expensive satellite............... and it is true
Just saying, but mixing metrics and imperial like that has killed one or another megaproject. ;)
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #120 on: August 19, 2019, 12:22:59 AM »
We definitely mixed units when I was in university, but not that I intended to in my post.  If you look at a map, you'll note that going 1 meter north of northern El Paso County, puts you in New Mexico.  El Paso the city is almost synonymous with El Paso County (as best I can tell).
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #121 on: August 23, 2019, 02:14:08 AM »
Ditch cars to meet climate change targets, say MPs
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49425402?intlink_from_url=&link_location=live-reporting-story
Quote
People will have to get out of their cars if the UK is to meet its climate change targets, MPs say.

The Science and Technology Select Committee says technology alone cannot solve the problem of greenhouse gas emissions from transport.

It says the government cannot achieve sufficient emissions cuts by swapping existing vehicles for cleaner versions.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #122 on: August 23, 2019, 06:43:01 AM »
For those with range anxiety about all electric cars, check out the hybrids. Friend of mine just did east to west coast USA and back in a toyota prius hybrid. His words:

"Cant get the thing to do less than 55 mpg, whether its  in the Rockies or in Kansas. 11 gallon gas tank, 600 miles per fillup. Didnt even try to economize."

sidd


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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #123 on: August 24, 2019, 02:40:55 AM »
Anyone with range anxiety should investigate further and discover the better electric vehicles have plenty of range.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #124 on: August 24, 2019, 04:51:56 AM »
For those with range anxiety about all electric cars, check out the hybrids. Friend of mine just did east to west coast USA and back in a toyota prius hybrid. His words:

"Cant get the thing to do less than 55 mpg, whether its  in the Rockies or in Kansas. 11 gallon gas tank, 600 miles per fillup. Didnt even try to economize."

sidd
Hybrids make sense.
Lugging a heavy battery to power a light load - not so much.
Terry

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #125 on: August 24, 2019, 04:16:10 PM »
For those with range anxiety about all electric cars, check out the hybrids. Friend of mine just did east to west coast USA and back in a toyota prius hybrid. His words:

"Cant get the thing to do less than 55 mpg, whether its  in the Rockies or in Kansas. 11 gallon gas tank, 600 miles per fillup. Didnt even try to economize."

sidd
Hybrids make sense.
Lugging a heavy battery to power a light load - not so much.
Terry

Better than carrying around a toxic and explosive fuel, ‘just in case’? 

If range anxiety has you thinking ‘hybrid’, think some more. :) 
Those who own a plug-in hybrid and charge it meticulously so they run only on electricity will find that even a short-range EV with fast charging is more convenient.
Those who own a hybrid but burn gas anyway will find a long-range EV may suit their needs while lowering their emissions.

This Youtuber claimed for some time that a hybrid would be better for him than a pure BEV.  After buying a Volt and living with it for months, he changed his mind.
   I was WRONG about the Tesla Model 3 | Sold my Chevy Volt !


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sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #126 on: August 24, 2019, 08:52:27 PM »
Re: hybrids

horses for courses. Until batteries get better there is a market for hybrids, especially in west of the mississippi USA. On the freeways, charging stations are available. Off, not so much. So if you plan a cross country trip using only freeways, can be done. If you want to get out in back country, much more difficult.

Of course, one solution might be not to take that cross country trip exploring back roads. That's a hard sell ...

sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #127 on: August 26, 2019, 08:29:22 PM »
I'd hoped the earlier conversation would have attracted more comment - possibly on one of the other threads? Some may have wanted to explain how driving a Tesla had made their commute "Greener".
Terry
This seems to have been directed at me, so I'll oblige.

How does commuting to work in an EV compare with:

Working from home?
Living next to the factory, office or perhaps over the store?
Working within walking distance of work?
Working within Bike distance from work?
Working within E-Bike distance from work?
Taking an E-Bus to work?

Ride sharing?
Taking a Train Trolley or bus to work?
Taking a company bus to work?
Moving closer to work or taking a job closer to home?
Working close to a spouse's job and riding together?

Working at a remote site where you only come home once/month?
Working 4/10 as opposed to 5/8 shifts?
My situation isn't necessarily representative of most people, but it's probably typical of many in the midwest. I work in a suburban commercial area with no housing. Working within walking distance is possible (30+ minutes), but would be difficult and unsafe due to the complete lack of sidewalks. A bus service runs to a hub in the commercial area, where I could change to a bus connecting to the city center and then to another that would go to my neighborhood. It's about an hour trip one way. A bicycle/e-bike would be feasible, though lack of shoulders is an issue.

Working from home or four 10 hr days is not possible. My spouse's job moves around, but we do carpool when we can. I have to drive to job sites somewhat often, and public transport is nonexistent to the rural areas where most of those are located.

My commute is a little over 5 miles and takes about 10 minutes one way. I could get by with a bike, but I'm not prepared to do that in our icy and snowy winters on high speed roads with no shoulders in darkness. Car is the only realistic option for visiting job sites and family, so I would probably own one even if I lived at the office. I put 12-14k miles per year on it, with about 5k of that due to work trips. I got about 35 mpg with my old Civic, so I save 350-400 gallons by driving an EV. 90%+ of charging is done at home, where I have solar panels.

There are certainly better ways to make my life greener (especially veganism). And not everyone can afford a house with solar panels and an EV. But a lot of commuters who drive large expensive vehicles can afford it, and I believe EV adoption will mean lower emissions for them even without a lifestyle change. My area is very conservative, and lifestyle changes are not going to occur due to environmental concerns or collectivism. They may occur due to economics.

I would love if my area invested more in public transport, and at least built some sidewalks. But people here have no interest in spending money on anything that won't directly benefit their current lifestyle. I work in the transportation industry, and have been pushing "complete streets" and bike paths whenever possible. We have been gaining some traction with roundabouts (they're safer for cars), which can become the starting point for a bike & pedestrian friendly corridor.

In summary, EVs can provide "green" benefits in communities like mine where BAU has no end in sight. We should move away from a car-centered society, but until that happens I think switching to an EV is worthwhile.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #128 on: August 26, 2019, 10:53:18 PM »
^^
A fair response and one I don't have much of an argument against.
Government simply has to get off their collective asses and provide some semblance of green infrastructure. It's easier for the various legislative bodies to earmark some thousands for EV subsidy, or to allow EVs the use of multi-passenger lanes or free parking than to provide, dare we hope for E-Buses that go where they're needed, redraw zoning restrictions to allow most to live close to where the jobs are, or invest in electrified trolleys.
As long as the law makers can wave some ZEV credits at the credulous and gain a green reputation it's unlikely that they'll do any of the things that could actually be seen as leading to a solution for at least part of the transportation problem.


I noted that California with the highest buildup of EVs in the nation (the world)?, still posted an increase in GHGs due to transportation.


I've no doubt that every EV that removes an ICE from the road will remove a measurable amount of carbon from the air. I've also no doubt that many other "schemes" would be much more effective, and might even be much less expensive.


Even Google sends company buses to pick up and return their employees. Why couldn't any municipality do likewise? - preferably using E-Buses. From there it's not a huge step to provide free buses to where people actually need to go. (My understanding is that bus fares cover only a fraction of operating expenses anyway.)
These would go far in removing much of the GHG (and smog) from our cities.
Terry

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #129 on: August 27, 2019, 02:06:36 AM »
New infographic.
I imagine a Bus is the typical intra-city mode of travel, short distance, lots of stops along a set route; whereas a Coach is a point to point longer distance journey.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #130 on: August 27, 2019, 02:21:06 AM »
^^
A fair response and one I don't have much of an argument against.
...
As long as the law makers can wave some ZEV credits at the credulous and gain a green reputation it's unlikely that they'll do any of the things that could actually be seen as leading to a solution for at least part of the transportation problem.
You keep repeating the claim that EV credits somehow cause the government to avoid dealing with other aspects of transportation. I believe the claim is false, and stems from some anti-EV stance. There is no zero-sum game between EVs and E-buses, in fact these two solutions are complementary and should both be applied with full speed. The government is free to redraw zoning restrictions etc., this has zero relation to EVs. The same applies to redrawing bus routes to better serving the actual demand.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #131 on: August 27, 2019, 02:38:33 AM »
Sig
I saw a similar graph that had school buses in the bottom slot, I suppose because of the full loads & route planning.
High Speed Rail (Eurostar) &/or the New Silk Road are clear winners.
The option I'm not seeing that is gaining popularity here are E-Trolleys and E-Light Rail. Hamilton, a mid sized city near by had E-Buses with catenary lines until fairly recently and Toronto, a large city has had subways and E-Trolleys for ever.
Air travel is so 20th Century. :P


High Speed Freight from China's Pacific coast to London or Calcutta will pull Europe & Asia together, but will leave the Americas out in the cold.


Brexit will make even less sense.
Terry

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #132 on: August 27, 2019, 03:06:01 AM »
<snippage>
You keep repeating the claim that EV credits somehow cause the government to avoid dealing with other aspects of transportation. I believe the claim is false, and stems from some anti-EV stance. There is no zero-sum game between EVs and E-buses, in fact these two solutions are complementary and should both be applied with full speed. The government is free to redraw zoning restrictions etc., this has zero relation to EVs. The same applies to redrawing bus routes to better serving the actual demand.
The stumbling blocks as I see them are two fold.


1) Having done something "visible" to assague their green voters, the legislators are then free to follow the orders that come down from their ff donors.


2) Having spent their discretionary budget on subsidies for EVs, land and resources for charging stations & other benefits for EVs, the resources needed for those solutions that do require initial investment are depleted. Every Million given to Tesla, is a Million that could have been spent on E-Buses. Few have the resources to do both. (Some Chinese Cities may be the exceptions)


I think that in most jurisdictions the 1st I've listed is more important than the 2nd. I suspect that both are concerns everywhere.
Terry

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #133 on: August 27, 2019, 10:47:45 PM »
Worldwide light vehicle sales expected to continue to climb. EV sales are climbing dramatically but we will still see hundreds of millions of ICE vehicles hit the road in the next decade.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #134 on: August 27, 2019, 11:06:54 PM »
Sorry
But it looks like an oil slick riding on a Tsunami.
Terry

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #135 on: August 28, 2019, 03:59:17 PM »
Sorry
But it looks like an oil slick riding on a Tsunami.
Terry

????

nanning

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #136 on: August 28, 2019, 05:10:47 PM »
Sorry
But it looks like an oil slick riding on a Tsunami.
Terry

 ;D
Crashing on the shores of essential non-renewable mined resources.  ;)
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NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #137 on: August 29, 2019, 12:43:44 AM »
It has been an interesting read, as I haven't been on this new cars thread before.

I have a few comments.

On the transition to EV and the reduction in CO2, I note the following trend in CO2 growth per annum.



The line for the 2010's average is going to be over 2ppm.  For the 2020's it will be the first time we have recorded every single year over 2ppm growth.

In short what we are doing, today, is not cutting it.

On the whole "traditional car manufacturers will be dead by 2040" subject, it is worth looking at this chart.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#pastfuture

Current population at 7.7bn.  In 2040, when most developed world restrictions on the sale of FF cars kick in, there will be 9bn people on the planet.  A whole new 2.3bn people as present and future consumers of non EV vehicles. Granted the markets will transition from the current 1st world to current 3rd world countries, but it will continue.  I don't see their demise any time soon.  Although things are going to be fairly bumpy if they don't start getting their factories out of the traditional places.  Along with the attendant job losses that come with it.

I continue to contend that Tesla is a technology company.  Granted that technology is manifesting in physical product in the first instance.  But there is a future to be experienced.

Let me digress for a short while.  Who remembers the Internet in 1992?  A few of us I'm sure.  How many would have predicted what the Internet would become?  I suggest NONE of us.  This is because our lives gave us no plane of reference for the changes the Internet was going to place upon them.

So whilst there has been some interesting discussion on where the combination of EV, public EV transport and EV ride hailing will go.  There has been little actual putting the pieces together into an integrated whole.

Let us take the commute first.  So we have a combination of commute types from the suburbs to large inner cities.  Some drive to the train station and park the car, bite the cost of parking then take the train to work.  Some are lucky and can take a lift with a partner to the train station and then get the train.  Others are not so lucky, can't/won't afford the cost of the parking, on top of the  train ticket (literally up to £7,000 per year) and simply drive to work.

Autonomous driving gives them more options.  Take the car to the train station and then it goes home and charges up on the solar, which is available during the day but not at night when they get home.  It comes back for you at night.

Put this together with ride hailing and robotaxi and your car can then pick someone up on the way home (or do a series of rides), generating a bit of the train fair back.  Home time and the car does a bit of ride sharing on the way to the train station and takes you home.

So things move on.  However nothing stands still and neither will this.  Computers and vertical (as opposed to fully thinking), AI, come into play.  Now we factor EV, Autonomous driving and intelligent ride hailing into an integrated transport system.  Because we don't need drivers, the vehicles can sit at optimal points waiting for a call.

This is where the intelligent part comes in.  As the AI learns the demand, daily, and the locations of the types of rides, it can position transport where it is needed.  Potential single vehicles out of heavily travelled routes and then gradually larger vehicles (up to full sized busses), where the demand is greater.  Peak periods see all types of transport on the go, but as demand drops, the larger vehicles stop off at charging points and go quiet until needed again.

This can all be managed by very smart software which can predict demand and cope with sudden peaks by mapping in routes of vehicles already running to destinations.  There will no longer be such a thing as going to the bus stop, you will call your ride and wait at home to be picked up.

Even smarter systems may use hubs and 1 or 2 ride changes to feed smaller routes into larger routes which can be serviced by larger vehicles.

Back in the 90's I worked with a guy who said "I'd love to use public transport, just so long as it picks me up from my doorstep, takes me to my work door and brings me back to my doorstep at the end of the day"

With a smart integrated transport network and robotaxi vehicles, that is a reality waiting to happen.

This kind of transport infrastructure will drive the requirement for every type of vehicle, from single seater "buggies" to minvans, to full sized EV busses.  There is a whole market out there.

On the Tesla will die front.

I've mentioned this a few times but it bears mentioning again.  The EU vehicle manufacturing giants are pledging tens of billions of euro on "projected" vehicle manufacturing capacity.  Yet they don't have a solution for, even, getting their batteries for these vehicles in volume.  They don't have the factories to build them and are intending to build new one's.  But not at Gigafactory3 speed but at EU construction speed.  Or, in other words, 2-3 years from breaking ground to being fully operational.

Meanwhile Gigafactory3 will be fully operational by EOY 2019 and fully ramped up by end of H1 2020.  Tesla will probably start working on Gigafactory4 at the end of 2020 or early 2021.  In the EU and inside the tariff barriers.  By 2025 Tesla, from Giga2/3/4 will have the capacity to manufacture around 1.5m vehicles per year.  Also Tesla will have 4 models SX3Y, a pickup, the Semi and, probably, anther completely different range.  They will be working on HW5 for their self drive compute capability with HW4 fully delivered and in place.  Ride hailing software will be written and fully functioning.  FSD will be a reality, whether it will be allowed or not is another matter entirely, but I assume that Uber and others will have blazed that trail already.

Add to that Tesla insurance, which will be far more profitable than traditional insurance as they will not have to carry the high load of human accidents and it will probably be much more profitable than traditional insurance.

All of this will allow Tesla to drive down prices on their models to make them even more competitive with the incumbents.

With Tesla sourcing its own components and with their battery tech, I would not bet against a ~$20k budget range which has much lower mileage and very basic features.  Taking the fight to the incumbents even more.

Remember this is all by 2025.  When are the incumbents targeting this level of penetration into the EV market?  Generally, if you read their blurb, around 2030, when the earliest large barriers emerge for ICE vehicle sales in the 1st world.  (I don't count Norway, it's a rounding error on this scale).

On top of this Musk has already hinted that Tesla is looking to secure its own Lithium sources (probably cobalt too), through acquisition, probably and they already have bought battery tech to make their existing tech better.

Note I haven't even talked about solar roof's or powerwalls.  They're important in the scheme of things but inconsequential in term of Tesla survival.

Whilst all of this is going on in the next 5 years, the incumbents will be shedding workers and causing mayhem in the GDP figures of the EU (and other), economies.  Governments are going to intervene and levy costs on these manufacturers.  Already we see huge issues in France, Belgium, Spain and Germany when workforces are reduced due to lack of sales or income.  This will hit the bottom line of these manufacturers and limit their ability to compete effectively with Tesla.

To say that Tesla is going to be swallowed up as a given is a very narrow minded view of the world.  I don't see it as being certain at all.  Very possible if they really screw up, but that screw up is not coming any time soon as I see it.

I have already posted the stats on how the i-Pace, e-tron and others are not going to compete with the Model 3.  They compete with the Models S and X.  Even less will they compete with the Model Y.  Their volume, today, is low.  Very low.  Tesla is already outselling Jaguar ICE car full year sales in just over 6 months.  When Gigafactory3 gets online and going they are going to outsell Jaguar cars in 4 months or less.  Eventually they will outsell the entire market of JLR combined in about 8 months.

It is far, far, more likely that JLR will go under than Tesla will.  As it stands today.

Our world of cars is going to change.  Radically.  Over the next decade to decade and a half.  The saddest part is that it is going to make not one single dent in our world CO2 footprint.  It's just going to lower the curve a bit.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2019, 06:43:27 PM by NeilT »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #138 on: August 29, 2019, 01:13:43 AM »
NeilT wrote:
Quote
It is far, far, more likely that JLR will go under than Tesla will.  As it stands today.

Interesting you should say that.  ValueAnalyst just tweeted:
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 8/27/19, 6:22 AM
Jaguar has one year left.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1166294985152577536

——-
The common thought is that more people = more workers = more commuters = more cars.
Yet, consider the effects of a Universal Basic Income — which will be needed soon, when robots and AI make so many human jobs disappear.  Opponents of a UBI insist that, given a little free money, lots of people will just sit around and do nothing.

I don’t agree with that, but if it were true, that would mean a lot fewer cars on the road....
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #139 on: August 29, 2019, 07:11:28 AM »
America's Finest News Source reports that while banning cars in cities would encourage people to drive buses to work or just stay home, it would also spawn a terrifying urban dystopia cruelly ruled by the fastest walkers and require buying stupid-looking helmets.

https://www.theonion.com/pros-and-cons-of-banning-cars-in-cities-1837651518

sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #140 on: August 29, 2019, 04:41:03 PM »
America's Finest News Source reports that while banning cars in cities would encourage people to drive buses to work or just stay home, it would also spawn a terrifying urban dystopia cruelly ruled by the fastest walkers and require buying stupid-looking helmets.

https://www.theonion.com/pros-and-cons-of-banning-cars-in-cities-1837651518

sidd

Excellent analysis! ;D
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #141 on: September 09, 2019, 08:31:31 AM »
The comment at

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1150.msg227594.html#msg227594

contained a sentence that made me think:

" there is no chance society will abandon individual transport."

from the context i imagine the author means cars (of whatever persuation) on roads

Is it really true that humankind now is wedded to cars on roads? I ask this not only from the fossil carbon exhaust viewpoint, but from a larger view of human organization.

sidd

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #142 on: September 09, 2019, 09:18:10 AM »
Along with more traditional resources, modern lifestyle is constrained by a new resource that historical societies did not much lack I think - time. Under the perceived needs of work or business, family, friends, hobbies, recreation, many (most?) people find themselves rushing all day, all week, all year. In this situation, taking the time to use slower shared transport is often perceived as unbearable.
This doesn't mean the car is a must - individual transport can be an e-bike, a scooter, a taxi (robotaxi??). It can also be a fast shared transport - buses in express lanes, a metro rail, but these are often not in the direction the individual in question needs to go. There are some solutions of fast shared transport that picks you up and takes you where you need to go relatively quickly - minibuses controlled by an app for example.
But still, I would be surprised if society manages to wean itself off the fast individual transport.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #143 on: September 09, 2019, 09:48:36 AM »
It is one thing to know  that we really need  to get of fossil fuel use.
It is another to sell that idea to the majority of  voters.
A  platform of heavily restricting or banning cars on a national level is not going to succeed at this time in most of the developed world.
Personal transport based on battery electric cars is the lest bad option we can hope for at present.

« Last Edit: September 09, 2019, 11:00:38 AM by KiwiGriff »

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #144 on: September 09, 2019, 10:51:36 AM »
Banning would be backlashed, but adding other public/shared transportation options would be welcomed I think.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #145 on: September 09, 2019, 11:08:02 AM »
What we need is the lightest possible box that can move objects from point a to point b as fast as possible and without emitting.

We absolutely need these boxes to transfer food and people that produce food and the tools to produce food or we die. The transportation device must be safe and comfortable.

We also need to produce them in mass as fast as possible. Who is going to pay for them to be produced? The people either directly or indirectly through government.

How long will it take to design such vehicle? Unknown, but we are getting closer and closer and are already there in segments of the vehicle problem.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

nanning

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #146 on: September 09, 2019, 06:32:57 PM »
What we need is the lightest possible box that can move objects from point a to point b as fast as possible and without emitting.
<snip>

Why the need for "as fast as possible"?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #147 on: September 09, 2019, 07:06:02 PM »
What we need is the lightest possible box that can move objects from point a to point b as fast as possible and without emitting.
<snip>

Why the need for "as fast as possible"?

Probably to get it adapted by the 99 and 44/100s percent of people who will not adapt it otherwise.
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #148 on: September 10, 2019, 08:11:02 PM »
Why the need for "as fast as possible"?

Because time is our most valuable resource.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #149 on: September 10, 2019, 09:34:00 PM »
What we need is the lightest possible box that can move objects from point a to point b as fast as possible and without emitting.

<snipped>
Big batteries are heavy.
Speed and efficiency are mutually exclusive.
Without emitting? - If emitting zero GHG is the objective are we looking for a perpetual motion device built of wood?


Every vehicle represents a compromise. Some require tons of mass to move 2 people @ 60MPH. Some require <100# to move 2 people at these speeds.
I'm not sure that traveling at 60MPH in a private vehicle is necessary - not so long ago, say during Carter's presidency, it was illegal throughout the States. We survived at 55. ::)
Terry