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Author Topic: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux  (Read 14385 times)

nanning

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #250 on: December 24, 2019, 04:15:02 PM »
You're so right Terry. Thanks for that.

Rejoining in close proximity as a social species will have additional benefits.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #251 on: December 24, 2019, 06:29:04 PM »
We are a social animal. Anything that separates us from this separates us from our humanity.


Fearing 'others' isn't enlightened, and technology that encourages isolation is deeply flawed.
We don't need to walk a mile in another's shoes, just sit next to him on a bus. :)
Terry

nanning

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #252 on: December 24, 2019, 08:39:45 PM »
:)
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #253 on: December 24, 2019, 10:48:35 PM »
Quote
We don't need to walk a mile in another's shoes, just sit next to him on a bus. :)
Most of us need to walk a couple km in our own shoes (daily), preferably next to another person, and practice the art of listening to each other.  (But this is OT for this thread, I suppose.)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #254 on: December 25, 2019, 09:25:46 PM »
Increasing numbers of homeless people in California are living in their vehicles amid the ongoing housing crisis.
But now advocacy groups have opened up "safe parking lots" designed to let the homeless sleep in their cars without fear of being removed.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/12/23/us/homeless-living-in-vehicles-los-angeles/index.html
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crandles

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #255 on: January 06, 2020, 01:21:04 PM »
Driverless already in action in Moscow (and CES Las Vegas) by Yandex.

Quote
With all that in mind, I wasn't expecting there to be no driver at all.
...
"The robot drivers which we are developing, they cannot get distracted," Yulia Shveyko, head of media relations for Yandex driverless cars, tells me.

The fleet is already used by Yandex's rideshare service in Moscow.

"So we have passengers who are using our app to order rides. They're going to the university, post office, grocery store, and it's completely integrated into their typical routines," she adds.

"And what we've seen is that within a very quick time period, once they feel safe it starts to feel very normal."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51003224

Quote
It entered the driverless car game in 2016, and got its vehicle on public roads in December 2017.

Seems quick getting to that stage. What is all this decades away nonsense?
« Last Edit: January 06, 2020, 01:31:34 PM by crandles »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #256 on: January 06, 2020, 06:43:16 PM »
Smarter cars can better prevent injury to pedestrians and cyclists.

Tesla will protect bicyclists from "dooring" in future OTA update, notes Elon Musk
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-side-camera-anti-dooring-bicyclist-safety/
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NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #257 on: January 07, 2020, 01:46:45 PM »

Seems quick getting to that stage. What is all this decades away nonsense?

Russia has a lower risk threshold. Therefore they move faster.

Every time I look at my country I see that the big hulking bruiser that overshadowed progeess has been replaced with a little girl in a pink frilly dress, pigtails and chewing bubblegum.

Changed days.

But there are still countries with that big hulking bruiser and they are, eventually, going to lead the world.  Essentially because they are not afraid to risk the change.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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BeeKnees

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #258 on: January 07, 2020, 02:35:00 PM »

Seems quick getting to that stage. What is all this decades away nonsense?

Russia has a lower risk threshold. Therefore they move faster.

Every time I look at my country I see that the big hulking bruiser that overshadowed progeess has been replaced with a little girl in a pink frilly dress, pigtails and chewing bubblegum.

Changed days.

But there are still countries with that big hulking bruiser and they are, eventually, going to lead the world.  Essentially because they are not afraid to risk the change.

I know what you mean
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vox_mundi

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #259 on: January 09, 2020, 06:07:13 PM »
New Trump Autonomous Vehicle Plan Lets Industry Regulate Itself. (... What Could Possibly Go Wrong?)
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-01-autonomous-vehicle-industry.html

The Trump administration on Wednesday unveiled its most recent round of guidelines for autonomous vehicle makers that still rely on the industry to police itself despite calls for specific regulations.

Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao announced the proposed guidelines in a speech at the CES gadget show in Las Vegas, saying in prepared remarks that "AV 4.0" will ensure U.S. leadership in developing new technologies.

But the guidelines will likely fall short of expectations of auto safety advocates and the National Transportation Safety Board. In November, the NTSB, which investigates crashes and makes safety recommendations, condemned a lack of state and federal regulation for testing autonomous vehicles.

The NTSB said Chao's department failed to lead in regulating the new technology and put autonomous vehicle advancement ahead of saving lives.
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #260 on: February 06, 2020, 11:44:36 PM »
In IPCC SR15, there is a discussion of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), which create estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from different assumptions about the way we might change aspects of our lives.

These estimates of emissions can be tested with climate models to see how the climate goals of the Paris Agreement might be be met.

SR15 says
Quote
outright reductions in travel demand (e.g., as a result of integrated transport, land-use and urban planning), figure much less prominently.

Does this mean the authors of the SSPs have not dared ask us to give up our cars?

Cars have carbon footprints that soon exceed remaining carbon budgets.

Surely this means:

Quote
We can have cars to drive or a planet to live in.

But not both.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #261 on: February 07, 2020, 12:22:38 AM »
...
Quote
We can have cars to drive or a planet to live in.

But not both.

What if... we recycled ICE cars into EVs?  (And reduced the total number of cars overall, via car sharing, robotaxis, improved public transportation, etc.)... until more population centers are designed and built to minimize transportation needs?
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

nanning

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #262 on: February 07, 2020, 06:01:41 AM »
^^
Desperately clinging to last straws ;)
Please try to imagine a future without private cars. Can you?

That's interesting GeoffBeacon, thanks.
"have not dared" is very likely: ESLD (erring on side of least drama, economical/governing/keep-dreams-alive)
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #263 on: February 07, 2020, 01:06:18 PM »
^^
Desperately clinging to last straws ;)
Please try to imagine a future without private cars. Can you?
...

Yes.  Yes, I can.  And I did:
Quote
What if... we recycled ICE cars into EVs?  (And reduced the total number of cars overall, via car sharing, robotaxis, improved public transportation, etc.)... until more population centers are designed and built to minimize transportation needs?
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #264 on: February 07, 2020, 02:33:10 PM »
Why imagine it?  We had that and we rejected it.  It is called progress.

In a society where travel by foot is normal, a horse or a bike is luxury transport.

In a society where travel by bike is normal, travel by car is luxury transport.

In a society where travel by car is normal, large expensive cars are considered a luxury.

Public transport is for the metropolitan areas. Due to the rapidly increasing cost of humans to drive public transport, it is not economically viable for less dense communities.

Then there is the location issue.  As was said by a colleague of mine back in the 90's.  I have no issue with taking the bus so long as it picks me up from my door and returns me to my door having dropped me off at my workplace door and picked me up from it.

Then we have weather, protection, or lack of it, at stopping points.

Just exactly how far are we talking about here for limits? Half a mile to a bus stop which has no shelter? What do the passengers do when it is pouring with rain, or snow, on that walk?  And that wait?

We used to live in a world of discomfort, but we do not do that so much any more.

The autonomous vehicle solution is a great start, but it is not going to replace the family car.  Our societies have reorganised themselves around the reality of pervasive personal transport. Shopping is larger and out of town on remote trading estates.  Simply the family shop will become difficult.  Do you hold the vehicle in the car park and pay for it or release it and hope that when you exit the shop there will be sufficient capacity left to get you home with your frozen goods.  Yes you can book ahead, but will a vehicle be available?

Anyone with a family that has lived without a car (I have), is well aware of the difficulties it involves.

It is all very well saying "imagine what it would be like".  But you have to imagine it all and solve it all.  Otherwise your vision will wind up in file 13 along with all those other ideas that were not fully thought through.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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nanning

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #265 on: February 07, 2020, 04:50:32 PM »
Quote from: NeilT
Why imagine it?  We had that and we rejected it.  It is called progress.

"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

GeoffBeacon

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #266 on: February 07, 2020, 06:57:05 PM »

NeilT

Quote
Our societies have reorganised themselves around the reality of pervasive personal transport.

Environment Commissioner Ripa di Meana got the sack for commissioning a report which showed that car-free living is very much cheaper. It's obviously much pleasanter.

If we do the sums, we really are left with the choice

Cars to drive or planet to live in.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #267 on: February 07, 2020, 07:10:56 PM »
I attach a graph with data only up to 2013 suggesting that in the USA car ownership is being increasingly rejected by the young.

Various reasons are given - screwed by student loans, high insurance costs, high maintenance costs, high cost of housing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/09/the-dubious-future-of-the-american-car-business-in-14-charts/279422/
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #268 on: February 07, 2020, 08:11:38 PM »
gerontocrat, that's good.

If they reject cars, they should be able to live in decent cities, towns and villages that are suited to them.

That is cities, towns and villages without cars.

They are so much cheaper and pleasanter and don't screw the climate.

For and economist-friendly note, see The parable of the smoking carriages.
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #269 on: February 07, 2020, 09:32:47 PM »
Subsidizing free busses (E-Busses), cheap Light Rail and modern HSR - as opposed to paying the rich to buy expensive EV's is such an obvious move in the right direction that I'm astonished that there is any opposition.


We subsidize bridges rather than helping the wealthy purchase sailing yachts because everyone can walk across the damn bridge. Well, everyone can hop on a free bus, if you persist in demanding door to door service then I must insist that you pick up the tab.


If you insist on living far from the madding crowd, then I insist that you finance your own transportation rather than whining that what works in my city isn't suited to your more bucolic estate.


Millions have learned to live with their neighbors & close to their shops & jobs. If we're not forced to pay for your prefered lifestyle we may be able to provide free mass transportation for those masses that would gladly share a seat with a stranger.


The private automobile was an aberration that brought us to our knees. It had a short and inglorious history. Rather than reinventing the car we need to leave them in the smog filled miasma of our recent past.
Terry

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #270 on: February 07, 2020, 09:47:20 PM »
I attach a graph with data only up to 2013 suggesting that in the USA car ownership is being increasingly rejected by the young.

Various reasons are given - screwed by student loans, high insurance costs, high maintenance costs, high cost of housing.
I bet you one of the reasons is the low cost and availability of Uber service.

NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #271 on: February 09, 2020, 11:04:51 PM »
I bet you one of the reasons is the low cost and availability of Uber service.

Well I haven't checked the young person stats for France, but where I live there is no UBER, I have already mentioned the almost total lack of busses and if you want a taxi, you have to phone up and book it between 8am and 5pm.  Outside those times you can walk or cycle.  The nearest town of any size is 27km so it might take a while.

If you want to be taken seriously by the population at large, you have to be realistic.

I know plenty of people who have no driving license, so no need for a personal car.

Every Single One of them lives in a large city.

Every city non driver I have met, that has moved to the country, has taken their driving test and bought a car within 6 months of moving to the country.

As for the 17 to 24 group not buying cars? When I was 17, nobody could afford cars so they generally rode second hand motorcycles.

The changes since then, in the UK, have turned commuter bikes into incredibly expensive vehicles.  The kids still can't afford cars and now can't afford bikes.

With insurance for a Nissan note, for a 17 year old, ranging from from £1,200 to £2,500, it has effectively closed the vehicle market to them until they are around 25.

Stats may look good on paper, but there is always a story behind them.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #272 on: February 11, 2020, 06:24:17 PM »
Out of the frying pan into the fire.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/11/how-london-got-rid-of-private-cars-and-grew-more-congested-than-ever
How London got rid of private cars – and grew more congested than ever

Britain’s biggest city has almost ground to a halt, thanks to the rise of Uber, delivery drivers – and cycle lanes. Can anything be done to end the gridlock and pollution?
Quote
“London has achieved the impossible by eradicating the private car – and still having desperate traffic congestion,” says Prof Tony Travers, the director of LSE London, a research centre at the London School of Economics that explores the city’s economic and social concerns. “People keep saying we need to get the cars off the road. In central London, there aren’t any.”

According to Peter Ackroyd’s book London: The Biography, vehicles in the city moved at approximately 12mph in late Victorian times, before mass car ownership, when the streets were “filled with the ceaseless incessant stream of horse-drawn, motor-driven and steam-propelled traffic”. By 2018, the average speed on A roads in the City and Westminster was about 8mph. So why is traffic moving more slowly than ever?

On-line shopping creating congestion
In a previous job at TfL, he tried to curb the numbers of delivery vehicles coming into London before the Olympics, when fears of gridlock were at their height. “I was looking at Amazon, then I realised there were a hundred and one people delivering to my own building every second. Just trying to get 11 floors and 2,500 people working for TfL to change their behaviour was hard enough.”

“Regent Street had 36 different operators doing recycling. Each person was doing the right thing, but add them all up together …”
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kassy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #273 on: February 11, 2020, 08:13:32 PM »
So maybe it it just one of those things we cannot or should not ´free market´?

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #274 on: February 12, 2020, 02:56:56 AM »
^^
Ramen!!


The invisible hand of the market needs to be backed by the iron fist of a determined government.
Time to take the gloves off.
Terry

NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #275 on: February 12, 2020, 04:01:13 PM »
Yes the USSR had SO much success with that.  Why shouldn't we emulate them?
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blumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #276 on: February 12, 2020, 04:25:14 PM »
Oh, good old red scare. I haven't seen that one in a long time...
Everyone who can must self-isolate.

NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #277 on: February 12, 2020, 04:44:52 PM »
No that's not a Red scare.  That's reality.  The Command economy underperformed, left the people without food, let alone other basics and finally fell apart after Gorbachev started to introduce free market economic concepts.

If people want to make a case for this kind of economy, then they have to be honest enough to admit that whilst what we have is far from perfect, there Significant downsides to going the other way.

We see this every day. In the UK the "government has said" and that is the end of it...  Yep, people stopped buying cars and held onto the cars they have.  Driving companies to real difficulties.

The government said, the people did.  Just not what the government said.

You can lead or you can command.  If you try to do both all you do is confuse people.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #278 on: February 12, 2020, 05:10:53 PM »
Textbook red scare.
Everyone who can must self-isolate.

NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #279 on: February 13, 2020, 10:11:26 PM »
Textbook red scare.

Not in the slightest.
Whether you know it or not you are talking Command economy.

It does not work. Even China has given it up.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #280 on: February 14, 2020, 01:56:34 AM »
It won us WWII, though! Or helped, like...a lot!

"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #281 on: February 14, 2020, 06:28:12 AM »
There is a difference between a gun to your head and a catastrophe some time after you are dead.

People will accept short term restrictions for an immediate threat.

This is the whole problem with climate change.  By the time it reaches an immediate threat, it will be 50 years too late to do something about it.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #282 on: March 24, 2020, 09:29:16 PM »
Just saying:

Good thing we have private cars to get essential personnel to work during the Covid-19 pandemic, rather than subjecting them to the risk of public transportation (if that is even still running).  Also, to get sick people to the hospital when ambulances are overwhelmed.

Even better:  electric cars, which are not dependent on fossil fuels.

Italy is closing Gas Stations
[/quote]https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1242477783978139654

(ANSA) - Rome, March 24 - Italy's petrol stations will start closing down from Wednesday night because they are unable to ensure protection from the coronavirus or "the economic sustainability of the service", sector unions said Tuesday.
http://www.ansa.it/english/news/business/2020/03/24/petrol-stations-to-start-closing-wed_f139beeb-9662-4b29-8535-c39586776ec1.html
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Paddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #283 on: April 03, 2020, 05:49:33 PM »
Are any car companies likely to go bust courtesy of this outbreak?  New car sales must have dropped massively all over the world...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #284 on: April 03, 2020, 06:23:54 PM »
Are any car companies likely to go bust courtesy of this outbreak?  New car sales must have dropped massively all over the world...

Every automaker whose Q1 results I have seen show declines — except for Tesla. :)

The ICE to EV transition (or lack of same) is being followed on the Electric Cars thread:
Compare declines at other automakers:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2686.msg257701.html#msg257701

Tesla Had The Best Ever Q1 Performance, Total Production 102K and Deliveries 88,400 Units
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-had-the-best-ever-q1-performance-total-production-102k-and-deliveries-88-400-units


@ValueAnalyst1 on Twitter has made several shoe-bets (which they do not do lightly) that 2019 was the last profitable year for any of the OEMs, and most will fail, many in the next year or three.  And this was before the pandemic.  OEMs need to sell ICE to keep their investors happy while they invest billions in batteries and EVs — a burden Tesla did not have, and has already passed the critical mass sales hurdle needed to stay alive.

Tesla has enough cash on hand to handle today’s fixed costs into 2021.  OEM’s have desperately been trying to deal with shrinking sales since 2019.
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oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #285 on: April 04, 2020, 06:40:22 PM »
I wonder if EU rules on average fleet pollution will be suspended this year because of CV19, an excuse to support the ailing traditional car makers.

blumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #286 on: April 04, 2020, 06:56:06 PM »
OMG, don't paint the devil onto the wall, Oren.  :-[
Everyone who can must self-isolate.

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #287 on: April 04, 2020, 08:12:18 PM »
Not being European, my experience with politics may have been somewhat worse. I hope it doesn't happen of course.

blumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #288 on: April 04, 2020, 08:29:59 PM »
Me neither, but doesn't sound too far fetched to me. Wouldn't be the first time they lobby their way out of legislation...
Everyone who can must self-isolate.