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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #50 on: May 23, 2019, 05:35:54 PM »
Quote
Growth in sales of EVs made up for much of the bigger drop in ICE vehicle sales.
Quote
Which won't help total emissions much.

And which leads to my honest question:  since a failed German auto industry is probably the most likely event which would cause a near-term reduction in car sales, particularly ICE car sales in Europe, are you cheering for their demise, or not?
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #51 on: May 23, 2019, 05:58:51 PM »
as certain as tesla is going down the river mid- long term (as an independent manufacturer) not one german manufacturer will follow suit.

i know i'm repeating myself because reasoning is apparently useless but i come back an remind you once tesla is either gone, merged, purchased or bankrupt (which i don't hope) and german automakers will have risen to new highs with a mix of:

- Hydrogen ICEs
- Fuel Cell EVs
- Hybrids Evs for a few decades
- An Increasing fleet of EVs and sooner or later they will come up with new breakthrough tech ;)
- and last but not least and unfortunately ICE vehicles for a few years to make the bridge.

the reluctance to buy new cars is also due to a developing economic crisis on the horizon
that many can see emerge (in fact the last crises has never really been overcome but camouflaged)

in short, there won't be a demis of german automakers as little as there will be human extinction
by climate change as such (perhaps through side effects of GW and SLR but not directly by warming)


« Last Edit: May 23, 2019, 06:22:18 PM by magnamentis »

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #52 on: May 23, 2019, 06:13:11 PM »
...
i know i'm repeating myself because reasoning is apparently useless but i come back an remind you once tesla is either gone, merged, purchased or bankrupt (which i don't hope) and german automakers will have risen to new highs with a mix of:

- Oxygen ICEs
...

Do you mean hydrogen?  There's already oxygen in the air, it's not a fuel.

magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #53 on: May 23, 2019, 06:21:58 PM »
...
i know i'm repeating myself because reasoning is apparently useless but i come back an remind you once tesla is either gone, merged, purchased or bankrupt (which i don't hope) and german automakers will have risen to new highs with a mix of:

- Oxygen ICEs
...

Do you mean hydrogen?  There's already oxygen in the air, it's not a fuel.

sorry, gonna correct it, lapsus, thanks for hinting  :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #54 on: May 23, 2019, 06:46:27 PM »
...
in short, there won't be a demis of german automakers ...

I’d say the inability to survive without government assistance is a failure of the highest order.

"The German automotive association expects the industry to make a substantial request for aid by the end of May"
Quote
The automotive industry in Germany is under pressure almost unprecedented.

The pressure is so great that by the end of May, the automotive association Verband der Automobilindustrie (VDA) expects the automotive industry to make a substantial request for state aid.

Without cash assistance from the state, the consequence can be job losses, and since the automotive industry is the largest private employer in Europe's largest economy, the message should be expected to be taken seriously in Berlin.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2687.msg200548.html#msg200548
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magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #55 on: May 23, 2019, 08:13:36 PM »
...
in short, there won't be a demis of german automakers ...

I’d say the inability to survive without government assistance is a failure of the highest order.

"The German automotive association expects the industry to make a substantial request for aid by the end of May"
Quote
The automotive industry in Germany is under pressure almost unprecedented.

The pressure is so great that by the end of May, the automotive association Verband der Automobilindustrie (VDA) expects the automotive industry to make a substantial request for state aid.

Without cash assistance from the state, the consequence can be job losses, and since the automotive industry is the largest private employer in Europe's largest economy, the message should be expected to be taken seriously in Berlin.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2687.msg200548.html#msg200548

asking for aid = whining with billions of recent profits in the pocket, does not mean that the help is NEEDED, it's just WELCOME, why not take it if someone is ready to give, be it to increase power or keep power or being afraid to lose jobs.

it's an old game that is played and neven would say that concentrated wealth knows very well to concentrated further at the cost of the sheep that follow to pack over the cliff.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2019, 11:59:22 PM by magnamentis »

Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #56 on: May 23, 2019, 09:27:23 PM »
Why cheer for no change?
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #57 on: May 23, 2019, 09:57:31 PM »
it's an old game that is played and neven would say that concentrated wealth knows very well to concentrated further at the cost of the sheep that follow to pack over the cliff.

What concentrated wealth knows how to do, is motivate people with flexible morals to come up with schemes such as this one, by rewarding them for helping concentrated wealth grow and become more concentrated. So, by putting a cap on how much people can own, you put a big damper on that dynamic. Only when that dynamic becomes less powerful, do you have a chance of successfully implementing solutions.

That's something I'd cheer for, because I actually want problems to be solved, and not greenified.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #58 on: May 24, 2019, 12:04:39 AM »
Why cheer for no change?

no cheering at all, naming facts as far as i can assess them is not cheering. if i say who wins the war it does not mean i like wars or the winner ;)

as to the post after the quoted one, you should know by now that i'm as with you as one can get on that point.

shedding light to things from different angles and trying to be as objective as possible is not the same like flexible morals if you meant me with that.

last but not least once groups with non-flexible views oppose each other the outcome has been at least as disastrous, it is how past and current wars are fueled, including all the religious confrontation about things where there is 90% agreement. they all think they have purchased the truth.

hope you see what i'm heading at, good night

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #59 on: May 24, 2019, 05:22:36 AM »
Quote
Growth in sales of EVs made up for much of the bigger drop in ICE vehicle sales.
Which won't help total emissions much.

In Sweden we have a climate barometer for total road traffic emissions, updated monthly:
https://www.trafikverket.se/for-dig-i-branschen/miljo---for-dig-i-branschen/energi-och-klimat/Klimatbarometer/

Quote
The climate barometer shows how much carbon dioxide is emitted from road traffic - from all Sweden's cars, trucks, buses, motorcycles and work machines. The barometer is updated monthly.

The climate barometer indicates the sum of all carbon dioxide emissions for all fuels - gasoline and diesel, but also ethanol, biodiesel (FAME and HVO), natural gas and biogas. The calculation covers all emissions, both from the manufacture and distribution of a fuel and from the combustion of it in an engine. The barometer gives a more complete picture and allows for a closer follow-up than has been possible before. Data on fuel deliveries receives the Swedish Transport Administration from Statistics Sweden every month. In addition to road traffic, work machines, work tools and leisure boats are also covered.

Quote
The index now stands at 98, ie two per cent lower than the 1990 emissions. During the last 12 months, emissions have increased by 1.9 per cent. This can be compared with the necessary reduction rate of about 8 per cent per year to reach the climate target for the transport sector in 2030.

Edit; forgot to add this article which explains why emissions went up last year and what they think we should do (~90% 'clean' grid here):
https://www.trafikverket.se/om-oss/nyheter/Nationellt/2019-02/okad-lastbilstrafik-orsakade-utslappsokning/
Quote
- We need to increase the pace if we are to meet the climate target. In addition to stricter policy instruments for more energy-efficient vehicles and an increased share of renewable energy, this is about more public transport, walking and cycling in densely built-up areas. On the freight side, it is about longer, heavier and, in the long run, fewer trucks and more goods by rail and shipping, ”says Marie Hagberg, department manager for transport quality at the Swedish Transport Administration.



And which leads to my honest question:  since a failed German auto industry is probably the most likely event which would cause a near-term reduction in car sales, particularly ICE car sales in Europe, are you cheering for their demise, or not?
No, I cheer over possible changes like the one I quoted above in bold and this previous comment:

Hmm, a bit early maybe but if this is a new trend it's good.

A piece by Linus Eriksson, traffic director at Skånetrafiken:
Skåne is entering a new era where the car is no longer the norm. Maybe car shame follows flying shame?
https://www.sydsvenskan.se/2019-05-15/skane-ar-pa-vag-in-i-en-ny-era-dar-bilen-inte-langre-ar-norm-foljer-bilskam-efter-flygskam

In just a few months the travel pattern in Skåne has changed. According to Swedavia, the number of air passengers at Malmö Airport decreased by 11 per cent for the first four months of the year. During the same period, travel by public transport in Skåne increased by 1.8 million trips. The regional bus traffic around Lund and Kristianstad increased by 10 percent, the city traffic in Malmö by just over 7 percent, and the Pågatågen by 4 percent.

I think we are entering a new era. Every day, 420,000 sustainable journeys are made with Skånetrafiken, all of which buses and trains are fossil fuel-free. Regardless of what is claimed in the debate, Skåne has a large range of trains and bus services that reach far above the political level of ambition of ten double trips per weekday for resorts with at least 1 000 inhabitants. In places such as Åhus, Höganäs, Broby, Höllviken, the demand is so great that Skånetrafiken runs a bus between every 5-10 minutes.

Changes that will minimize the useless use of cars as much as possible. Is it possible that the car manufacturers and oil companies can do something else, other than further destruction to our civilization?

Insisting that a transition to a clean grid and EV's for everyone will provide some meaningful mitigation, is not working, I've presented Norways numbers above in several posts. Why? They simply and clearly show no mitigation (apart from a minor dent on road emissions (which is ~half of the reported drop of emissions), very similar to Sweden but we still don't have as many EV's and a slightly less cleaner grid. In fact, the total number of distance travelled will only increase energy consumption and put further stress on our civilization.

The real mitigation part in Sweden and Norway is heating, thanks to a warmer climate and efficiency. That is very visible in the stats. Also in the projections ahead, adding a recent one for electricity use in Sweden. Top to bottom:
Domestic
Operational
Heating
Industry
Transport
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 07:28:34 AM by Sleepy »
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #60 on: May 24, 2019, 06:04:42 AM »
Here's the report I mentioned above:
https://www.energiforetagen.se/link/6e8a65b9e6d54caeb33072fddf7d7660.aspx

In Swedish of course and it might be overly positive, which this section indicates:
Quote
At the same time, we would like to point out that there are other potential electricity demand areas that are considered to have a relatively moderate impact in the flight plan scenario. It could, for example, be about greatly increased electricity consumption for comfort cooling, battery factories, greatly increased production in any electricity-intensive industrial industry or electric flights. Another example is that in the chemical industry, estimates have been made that indicate a possible additional electricity requirement of 4–22 TWh in addition to what we assume in the flight plan scenario. When you consider such long periods of time, as until 2045, it is also important to realize that Electricity use areas can be added that we cannot predict at all today. This could mean a greater use of electricity than the one on which the flight plan scenario is based.
Another example of the uncertainties in the assessment of future electricity use is the population development in Sweden. Previous analyzes have identified the difference between Statistics Sweden's lowest and highest population forecast in 2050 corresponds to an electricity usage difference of 30-40 TWh. Our scenario is based on a population development in the middle of that interval, which means that the use of the road map scenario in 2045 could be 15 TWh lower or 15 TWh higher, only with regard to population developments.

Adding another image, total electricity use, with transmission losses included.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #61 on: May 24, 2019, 10:15:01 AM »
Outlining the risks and challenges for the US.
https://rhg.com/research/capturing-leadership-policies-for-the-us-to-advance-direct-air-capture-technology/

Last year, global CO2 emissions reached an all-time high. Recent scientific research indicates that global emissions need to reach net-zero between 2045 and 2055 to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. DAC technology does not make it possible to bypass the difficult work of reducing emissions. We find that even with break-neck electrification of vehicles, buildings, and industry, unprecedented improvements in energy efficiency, completely decarbonized power generation, and carbon removal from enhanced natural sequestration, DAC technology will be essential for the US to decarbonize by midcentury. Our analysis indicates that for the US to reach net-zero emissions by 2045 (our “100by45” scenarios) between 560 and 1,850 million metric tons of CO2 will need to be removed by DAC technology and then permanently stored underground annually, depending on the availability of other carbon removal options, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and natural sequestration, and the pace of electrification in the transportation, buildings, and industrial sectors.

Sounds familiar...
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 10:26:09 AM by Sleepy »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #62 on: May 24, 2019, 01:50:03 PM »
Quote
Growth in sales of EVs made up for much of the bigger drop in ICE vehicle sales.
Quote
Which won't help total emissions much.

And which leads to my honest question:  since a failed German auto industry is probably the most likely event which would cause a near-term reduction in car sales, particularly ICE car sales in Europe, are you cheering for their demise, or not?

Quote
No, I cheer over possible changes like the one I quoted above …
Quote
Changes that will minimize the useless use of cars as much as possible. Is it possible that the car manufacturers and oil companies can do something else, other than further destruction to our civilization?

Insisting that a transition to a clean grid and EV's for everyone will provide some meaningful mitigation, is not working, I've presented Norways numbers above in several posts. Why? They simply and clearly show no mitigation (apart from a minor dent on road emissions (which is ~half of the reported drop of emissions), very similar to Sweden but we still don't have as many EV's and a slightly less cleaner grid. In fact, the total number of distance travelled will only increase energy consumption and put further stress on our civilization.

Thank you for an honest reply.  But despite all the protestations, the numbers and graphs and videos, you are voting for BAU for today!  To paraphrase: ‘There aren’t many EVs on the road, and they aren’t doing much good for our overall numbers, so let’s wait until Big Oil and Big Auto agree to do something else.’

Nothing short of radical change will get us out of the oil pit we are in.  Perhaps some day, most people will live where, and in a way that, individual transportation is unnecessary.  But right now, today, 1) we need to stop burning fossil fuels, and 2) individuals still need individualized transportation.  To solve that, we need to stop making ICE cars, and we need to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport and sustainable energy.  The faster the biggest oil-dependent companies — whose profit depends on holding back that transition — die a natural (or faster) death, the faster we can move toward the transformation we require.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 02:03:51 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #63 on: May 24, 2019, 04:35:43 PM »
No, I try to live as I speak and try to follow numbers and facts, not fiction or opinions. Also try to maintain a holistic approach and follow wether people are changing attitudes, or not.
RCP2.6 is dead and this planet will go past two degrees like nothing since almost everything we build today are built with fossil fuels. Attitudes must change since we can't create energy, so the only option left is to cut back consumption and use renewables and the electric transports we can afford, as wisely as possible.

----
If someone noticed the presentation I posted with Glen Peters earlier, it was from UFGC19 in Oslo:



Also adding their offical t-shirt.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #64 on: May 24, 2019, 08:04:57 PM »
Attitudes must change since we can't create energy, so the only option left is to cut back consumption...


Clear, concise and correct.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #65 on: May 24, 2019, 09:05:54 PM »
Attitudes must change since we can't create energy, so the only option left is to cut back consumption...


Clear, concise and correct.

I am not arguing against efficiency, but:

The sun provides more energy to the earth in one hour than the world currently uses in one year.

There plenty of energy we can gather to use to transition to today’s clean electric transportation; to get us off fossil fuels as quickly as possible, while new technology and new lifestyles are developed that need less of it.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #66 on: May 24, 2019, 11:35:08 PM »
Sig quoted (without citing):

"The sun provides more energy to the earth in one hour than the world currently uses in one year."

This reminds me of the glowing statements pro-hydrogen-powered car people used to make about how hydrogen--it is the most abundant element in the universe.

Entirely true, and entirely irrelevant.

We are already using a huge portion of Net Primary Production (40% according to a study a few years back, iirc), that is the energy that is available to nearly all living things through photosynthesis. How much bigger of a portion should we take, while depriving the rest of life on the planet their share?

ETA: Digging around a bit, I see more recent calculations put the number closer to 25%, but that represents a doubling over the last century. (And note that this study is 6 years old. Anyone have any more current data?)

https://www.pnas.org/content/110/25/10324

ETAA: OK, I may be going down a bit of a rabbit's hole here, but this more recent paper seems to say that adding marine to terrestrial Human Appropriation of NNP comes to 37 %, but maybe I'm missing something here?

"...25% of terrestrial NPP...
∼13% of marine NPP..."

But perhaps these should be averaged, after they have been weighted according to total NNP in each realm?

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/25/6328.full.pdf
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 11:51:50 PM by wili »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #67 on: May 25, 2019, 02:01:10 AM »
Here’s a ref or two:

Quote
12. What is the theoretical potential of solar energy?
Sunlight has by far the highest theoretical potential of the earth’s renewable energy sources. The solar constant (the solar flux intercepted by the earth) is 1.37 kW/m2. The cross-sectional area of the earth intercepting this flux at any instant is πr2 (where r = 6,378 km is the earth’s radius), but the surface area of the earth over which this flux is averaged over time is 4πr2. Hence, the time-and-space-averaged solar flux striking the outer atmosphere of the earth is (1.37 kW/m2) / 4 = 342.5 W/m2. In addition, enroute to the earth’s surface, about 30% of this flux is scattered, and about 19% is absorbed, by the atmosphere and clouds (Wallace 1977, pp. 320-321). Hence, the average flux striking the earth’s surface is 342.5 W/m2 · (1-0.49) = 174.7 W/m2.
The theoretical potential of solar power is the integral of this average flux over the earth’s surface area (4πr2):
(4) P = (174.7 W/m2) · (4πr2)
= (174.7 W/m2) · 4π · (6,378 km)2 · (106 m2/km2) · (10-12 TW/W)
= 89,300 TW.
This theoretical potential represents more energy striking the earth’s surface in one and a half hours (480 EJ)67 than worldwide energy consumption in the year 2001 from all sources combined (430 EJ)68.
https://www.sandia.gov/%7Ejytsao/Solar%20FAQs.pdf


How Much Room Do We Need To Supply The Entire World With Solar Electricity?
Quote
In 2009, the total global electricity consumption was 20,279,640 GWh. The sun creates more energy than that in one hour. The tricky part is collecting that energy and converting it into useful electricity with solar panels. How much area would need to be covered with solar panels in order to capture enough energy to meet global demand? Actually, it’s not as much as you’d think.

The image [below] has three red boxes showing what area would need to be covered for Germany (De), Europe (EU-25), and the entire world.
https://www.iflscience.com/environment/how-much-room-do-we-need-supply-entire-world-solar-electricity/

Not exactly a huge deprivation of energy for the planet. 
« Last Edit: May 25, 2019, 02:19:40 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #68 on: May 25, 2019, 05:00:25 AM »
I've posted those too in the past and I truly wish the World could go back 10-15 years.
My personal wish would be to go back 40.

Edit; The forum was unresponsive earlier this morning and I just wanted to add one more thing:
Stabilizing at any given temperature requires radical emission reductions and NET's.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2019, 09:48:49 AM by Sleepy »
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #69 on: May 25, 2019, 09:24:34 AM »
NPP compared to total solar energy illuminating the earth is not too useful. At best photosynthesis is 10% efficient even in rapacious crop like sugarcane. 5% is a high estimate for most photosynthesis. Then there is a huge amount of attrition as you move up the trophic chain to the top that humans harvest.

I accept in a very loose sense that humans "use" about a third of NPP, but a lot of that is after NPP is eaten by many creatures up the food chain. The amount that winds up been directly used by me when i eat a fish i caught or eat a chicken i raised is a very small fraction of all the photosynthesis that went in to support that animal.

Not so surprisingly fossilization of oil and coal capture a very large fraction of the NPP (the the 5% or less figure)
Probably much more that the chicken or the fish. But the carbon load from fossil is coming from sequestered NPP many megayear ago.

sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #70 on: May 26, 2019, 05:20:13 AM »
<snip>
This reminds me of the glowing statements pro-hydrogen-powered car people used to make about how hydrogen--it is the most abundant element in the universe.

Entirely true, and entirely irrelevant.
<snip>
Hydrogen got me thinking about the glowing statements presented by our steel industry. The new green companies like SSAB, LKAB and Vattenfall are making delusional promises here with HYBRIT and it's a huge area where the sun's energy is not adequate by itself.
Their two main issues:
1. It's about 20-30 years before this technology can be introduced in large-scale industrial production.
2. To produce hydrogen in an energy-efficient way, so that it becomes economically justifiable.

The real issue, apart from the 'natural' calamities the World might see by then, illustrated by this:
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #71 on: May 26, 2019, 09:29:07 AM »
Inauguration of the Worlds first off grid hydrogen station in Mariestad on Tuesday (May 28).
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/vetenskap/folj-med-till-varldens-forsta-sjalvforsorjande-vatgasmack
Video at the link, unfortunately in Swedish.

Looks nice, until you start looking at the numbers and realize how many that would be needed.
Document links at the botttom.

Edit; forgot to add the obvious, the winter months here doesn't provide much energy.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2019, 09:45:17 AM by Sleepy »
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #72 on: May 26, 2019, 08:41:10 PM »
This one is making its rounds on Twitter and it is hilarious.

In French, étron means 'shit'. Audi literally called their car Audi shit!

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #73 on: May 26, 2019, 10:20:14 PM »
This one is making its rounds on Twitter and it is hilarious.

In French, étron means 'shit'. Audi literally called their car Audi shit!

Elon Musk termed it a “Bold move.”  ;D

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1132222516217253888
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #74 on: May 26, 2019, 11:00:57 PM »

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #75 on: May 27, 2019, 12:52:18 PM »
Electric car development trashing the main automakers?
Quote
Fiat-Renault Mega-Merger Is Born of Desperation
By Chris Bryant
Politics and the cost of developing electric vehicles have pushed two of Europe's biggest carmakers together.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion

Other reports take a more +ve spin on this possible merger.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #76 on: May 27, 2019, 02:49:21 PM »
This one is making its rounds on Twitter and it is hilarious.

In French, étron means 'shit'. Audi literally called their car Audi shit!


In the 1970's GM was struggling to understand why its most popular car in the U.S. was not selling well in Central and South America until they realized that Nova meant No Go in Spanish.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #77 on: May 27, 2019, 02:56:34 PM »
Yeah, and Mitsubishi had its Pajero which means jerk in Spanish.

You would think they learned from things like that and just google it, but nope!

Their inability to adapt on every level will cost them everything, soonish.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #78 on: May 27, 2019, 03:52:34 PM »
Inability to adapt on every level will cost.

V1 by JimD:
Quote
« Reply #53 on: January 09, 2014, 05:23:05 AM »
Several of the last handful of comments hit exactly on why I started this thread.

Many people just do not have a good understanding of the scope and scale of the global vehicle fleet.  The idea that we can switch to electric vehicles and solve our fossil fuel consumption problem (especially in any meaningful time frame) is mistaken.  Just like the idea of hydrogen cars won't fix it either.

The infrastructure change over time is far too long and, as pointed out, where you get your electricity matters as if it is from a coal plant you are better off driving a gas vehicle.

BAU with our current fleet will not work.  Green-BAU with an electric fleet will not happen in time and would not have much chance of making a difference to the end result.
<snip>

V2 by JimD:
Quote
« Reply #3392 on: February 26, 2018, 04:38:48 PM »
<snip>
The fundamental reason I started this thread years ago was to point out that the answer is 'no cars'.  EV technology is fine and the collective we will advance it a long ways over the next few decades.  But it will not save us - thus my atheism.  A world of a couple of billion ev's just justify's extending the standard infrastructure and human footprint.  EV's as they are being approached, especially by Musk - luxury, are another form of BAU and a denial of our desperate situation.

We must change our way of life and our footprint.
<snip>

V3 by Neven:
Quote
« Reply #6723 on: May 13, 2019, 05:31:14 PM »
<snip>
Anyway, maybe a split is a good idea. I don't like how this thread has become the one with the most replies on the entire forum. So, here's an Electric cars thread for discussing the latest in EV technology and infrastructure. This thread can continue to be used what it was meant for originally: Whether sustainable transportation is a viable option as a Green BAU solution.
<snip>
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #79 on: May 29, 2019, 08:25:11 AM »
On topic.

What can we learn from consumption-based carbon footprints at different spatial scales?
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2212

Quote
Background: Current climate change mitigation policies, including the Paris Agreement, are based on territorial greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting. This neglects the understanding of GHG emissions embodied in trade. As a solution, consumption-based accounting (CBA) that reveals the lifecycle emissions, including transboundary flows, is gaining support as a complementary information tool. CBA is particularly relevant in cities that tend to outsource a large part of their production-based emissions to their hinterlands. While CBA has so far been used relatively little in practical policymaking, it has been used widely by scientists.

Methods and Design: The purpose of this systematic review, which covers more than 100 studies, is to reflect the policy implications of consumption-based carbon footprint (CBCF) studies at different spatial scales. The review was conducted by reading through the discussion sections of the reviewed studies and systematically collecting the given policy suggestions for different spatial scales. We used both numerical and qualitative methods to organize and interpret the findings of the review.

Review Results and Discussion: The motivation for the review was to investigate whether the unique consumption perspective of CBA leads to similarly unique policy features. We found that various carbon pricing policies are the most widely supported policy instrument in the relevant literature. However, overall, there is a shortage of discussion on policy instruments, since the policy discussions focus on policy outcomes, such as behavioral change or technological solutions. In addition, some policy recommendations are conflicting. Particularly, urban density and compact city policies are supported by some studies and questioned by others. To clarify the issue, we examined how the results regarding the relationship between urban development and the CBCF vary. The review provides a concise starting point for policymakers and future research by summarizing the timely policy implications.

The challenges in one image, Fig3 below. Also adding the three tables.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #80 on: May 31, 2019, 07:40:19 AM »
A question in another thread reminded me of Meadows bathtub analogy.

First an old quote by Donella and then Dennis version from last year in three images.
http://donellameadows.org/archives/on-bathtubs-carbon-dioxide-and-disrespect/
Quote
–August 23, 1990–
...
The real issues here, the underlying fears that trigger our anger, are that on the one hand a bunch of environmental alarmists will force unnecessary changes in our fossil-fuel-powered way of doing things, and that on the other hand a bunch of technological conservatives with heavy stakes in fossil-fuel industries will drive the climate and the earth’s ecosystems into overheated chaos.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #81 on: May 31, 2019, 06:36:28 PM »
The IEA is now projecting that there will be 250 million EVs on the road in 2030 (up from 125 million last year).

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/30/iea-predicts-250-million-evs-on-the-road-by-2030/

Quote
What a difference a year makes. Last year, the International Energy Agency annual report predicted there would be 125 million EVs on the road worldwide by 2030. Its new 2019 report is out and it has doubled that prediction to 250 million electric vehicles by 2030, assuming the 25 nations that are part of the Clean Energy Ministerial EV30@30 program honor their commitments.

electric car sales If they do, that will mean 43 million new EVs are sold in 2030. If the more conservative “new policies” scenario prevails, 23 million EVs will be sold in 2030 and the total worldwide will reach 130 million.

Quote
Considering there were about 5 million electric cars on the road at the end of last year, this year’s prediction anticipates a dramatic increase in the number of EVs that will be sold worldwide over the next 10 years. The IEA report excludes sales of electrified two- and three-wheeled vehicles.

Quote
The current rate of cost reduction for battery storage systems is likely to continue over the next 10 years and will be strongly linked to the growth of electromobility. “It is expected that by 2025, batteries will increasingly use cathode chemistries that are less dependent on cobalt, such as NMC 811, NMC 622 or NMC 532 cathodes in the NMC family, or advanced NCA batteries,” the report adds.

The output from battery manufacturing plants will increase considerably from annual production of about 8 GWh today to an around 20 GWh in 2023, further driving down prices for EV batteries.

“Other technology developments are also expected to contribute to cost reductions,” the IEA claims. “These include the possibility to redesign vehicle manufacturing platforms using simpler and innovative design architecture that capitalize on the compact dimensions of electric motors ….. The use of big data to customize battery size to travel needs and avoid over sizing the batteries [will be] especially relevant for heavy duty vehicles.”

Quote
In general, IEA predictions tend to be on the conservative side, so the size of the EV market in 2030 could be significantly larger than suggested by this year’s report. After all, the IEA’s own forecast doubled in just the past 12 months. Absent the US forcing the world to start driving coal burning vehicles, for EV advocates the future is bright indeed.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #82 on: May 31, 2019, 06:44:03 PM »

RCP2.6 is dead and this planet will go past two degrees like nothing since almost everything we build today are built with fossil fuels. Attitudes must change since we can't create energy, so the only option left is to cut back consumption and use renewables and the electric transports we can afford, as wisely as possible.


Unless you know what's going to happen in the future, you can't say that.  Here's a good article on the RCPs in plain language.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/rcp-85-the-climate-change-disaster-scenario/579700/

Quote
There are a few reasons it’s hard to say which RCP comes closest to our reality. First, most of the RCPs tell roughly the same story about global emissions until about 2025 or 2030. Second, the RCPs describe emissions across the entire sweep of the 21st century—and the century mostly hasn’t happened yet. Trying to pick the most likely RCP in 2018 is a bit like trying to predict the precise depth of late-night snowfall at 4:32 a.m.

Given the pace of change in renewable energy deployment, the projections of EVs to outsell ICEs by the mid-2020s and the probability of richer countries deploying negative emissions technologies such as direct air capture of CO2, RCP 2.6 is still possible.  In fact, it's more likely than RCP 8.5.

Quote
The RCP 8.5 scenario may also become less likely in years to come, even if major polluters like the United States, China, and India never pass muscular climate policy. RCP 8.5 says that the global coal industry will eventually become seven times bigger than it is today. “It’s tough to claim that … that is a business-as-usual world,” Hausfather says. “It’s certainly a possible world, but we also live in a world today where solar is increasingly cheaper than coal.”

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #83 on: May 31, 2019, 07:02:56 PM »
And here's a study indicating that 1.5 C is still achievable by replacing exisiting fossil fuel infrastructure with renewables at the end of it's useful life.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07999-w

Quote
Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming

Christopher J. Smith, Piers M. Forster, Myles Allen, Jan Fuglestvedt, Richard J. Millar, Joeri Rogelj & Kirsten Zickfeld

Nature Communications 10, Article number: 101 (2019)  |  Download Citation

Abstract

Committed warming describes how much future warming can be expected from historical emissions due to inertia in the climate system. It is usually defined in terms of the level of warming above the present for an abrupt halt of emissions. Owing to socioeconomic constraints, this situation is unlikely, so we focus on the committed warming from present-day fossil fuel assets. Here we show that if carbon-intensive infrastructure is phased out at the end of its design lifetime from the end of 2018, there is a 64% chance that peak global mean temperature rise remains below 1.5 °C. Delaying mitigation until 2030 considerably reduces the likelihood that 1.5 °C would be attainable even if the rate of fossil fuel retirement was accelerated. Although the challenges laid out by the Paris Agreement are daunting, we indicate 1.5 °C remains possible and is attainable with ambitious and immediate emission reduction across all sectors.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #84 on: June 01, 2019, 09:15:46 AM »

RCP2.6 is dead and this planet will go past two degrees like nothing since almost everything we build today are built with fossil fuels. Attitudes must change since we can't create energy, so the only option left is to cut back consumption and use renewables and the electric transports we can afford, as wisely as possible.


Unless you know what's going to happen in the future, you can't say that. <snip>
I don't need the future, just IMAGE.  ;D

Edit; and Ken, all your four posts in this thread are off topic.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2019, 09:38:24 AM by Sleepy »
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #85 on: June 04, 2019, 08:29:26 AM »
A follow up to the above and also a crosspost emanating from a comment on SR15 and scientific reticence. A trip down memory lane:

Hansen on scientific reticence and sea level rise. (2007)
https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha01210n.html

Van Vuuren from 2007 (a paper preceeding the RCP2.6 one from 2011...).
Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-006-9172-9

Adding Fig. 3:  Global CO 2 -eq. emissions (all sources) for the B2 baseline emission and pathways to stabilization at a concentration of 650, 550 and 450 ppm CO 2 -eq.

Edit; also adding Fig. 12 from the Van Vuuren 2011 paper. Emissions for the IMAGE (IM) alternative RCP scenarios.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 09:07:08 AM by Sleepy »
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #86 on: June 04, 2019, 10:25:15 AM »
Crossposting this comment by zizek from the Tesla thread:
<snip>
Musk's email to Employees dated May 16 2019
Quote
That is a lot of money, but actually only gives us approximately ten months at the first-quarter burn rate to achieve breakeven. It's vital that we respect the faith investors have shown in Tesla, but it will require great effort to do so.

That is why, going forward, all expenses of any kind anywhere in the world, including parts, salary, travel expenses, rent, literally every payment that leaves our bank account must be reviewed, confirmed as critical and the top of every page of outgoing payments signed by our CFO.

I will personally review and sign every 10th page.

Please examine closely every expense where responsibility is, or probably should be, assigned to your group. If in doubt, assume it is on your plate, so that we don't have anything slip through the cracks.

This will take at least a few weeks to get right. Please don't worry if it isn't correct at first.

This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable.

Thanks again for your excellent work,

Elon
That part in bold is the real problem.

The World will not become environmentally sustainable, when the goal is to get rid of fossil fuel emissions while continuing current economic growth and resource depletion, which will increase our footprint.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #87 on: June 04, 2019, 05:14:57 PM »
How the Trade War could induce China to mess up lithium batteries and other sustainable hitech:
https://aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter/2019/How-China-wins-trade-war.htm
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #88 on: June 04, 2019, 06:30:02 PM »

This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable.


I have felt for some time that Tesla is headed for bankruptcy. Would never consider investing in their stock. Having said this, the hard work that has been done will not be wasted as the assets will be purchased and EV's will still be produced.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #89 on: June 04, 2019, 08:38:05 PM »
Are we at peak auto demand?

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/04/wall-street-issues-peak-car-warning/

Quote
Wall Street Issues “Peak Car” Warning

June 4th, 2019 by Steve Hanley

The production and sale of automobiles has been one of the bedrock industries of the global economy for generations, but sadly nothing lasts forever. Recently, a number of Wall Street cognoscenti have begun warning that the world has reached “peak car.” The implications for national economies are staggering.

“The pain is just beginning,” Masataka Kunugimoto, an analyst for Nomura, “We now expect global auto demand to be down 3%,” YOY in 2019 he told clients recently, according to a report by Business Insider. He has plenty of company among his peers in the world of finance.

“The industry is right now staring down the barrel of what we think is going to be a significant downturn,” John Murphy from Bank of America told a conference last week. The decline of sales in China “is a real surprise,” he added.

Michelle Meyer and Anna Zhou, also from Bank of America, agree. “In our view, the peak in auto sales is clear. A core view of John Murphy, our auto equity analyst, is that the auto cycle has peaked. And he expects further slowdown. He sees new auto sales heading lower largely due to a tidal wave of used vehicles which “depresses the prices of used vehicles.”

Their colleague Ethan Harris feels the same way. “There is a negative narrative developing in the auto sector as inventories climb amid softening demand. Inventory for light trucks and SUVs has been climbing to uncomfortably high levels.” Uh oh. Those are the very vehicles US manufacturers rely on to maintain their profitability. You think Tesla is in trouble? Look around. The situation in the broader industry is much worse.

For instance, the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders in the UK reported recently that total car production in the UK was down 45% compared to last year in April. Commercial vehicle exports collapsed a staggering 89%. Part of that is attributable to the financial turmoil created by the Brexit brouhaha and part can be traced to a surge in new car sales in advance of new rules for measuring auto emissions. But no matter what reasons are trotted out to explain the decline, the news is bad and getting worse.

Quote
BoA continues, “When sales weaken, it will lead to weaker consumer spending. Motor vehicle production is already on course to be a drag this year, slicing 0.14pp [percentage points] from 1Q GDP growth. We expect it to cut nearly 0.2pp to annual growth this year. Relative to last year, that is a reversal of 0.4pp.”

The decline won’t be total. Cars won’t go the way of the horse and cart, claims Business Insider. More likely the aftermath of “peak car” will look like the television business — a long, slow decline that takes years to play out. “It doesn’t feel great but it is manageable,” Bank of America’s research team says.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #90 on: June 04, 2019, 09:08:53 PM »
Quote
Automotive News (@Automotive_News) 6/3/19, 5:29 PM
FINAL TALLY: U.S. light-vehicle sales in May -0.3% to 1,587,335 united
May #SAAR: 17.4M units, second highest of '19
https://twitter.com/automotive_news/status/1135659916629336064

SAAR:  Seasonally-Adjusted Annual Rate
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #91 on: June 06, 2019, 06:53:12 AM »
Knowing how and knowing when: unpacking public understanding of atmospheric CO2 accumulation
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-019-02423-8

One image split in two (snipped out the top and bottom parts) says it all (although current numbers are higher).
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #92 on: June 06, 2019, 07:06:17 AM »
And how does the above, (including replies 79, 80, 85, 86) match with this?

Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Transform global energy
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/364/6443/836
Quote
Solar energy has the potential to play a central role in the future global energy system because of the scale of the solar resource, its predictability, and its ubiquitous nature. Global installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity exceeded 500 GW at the end of 2018, and an estimated additional 500 GW of PV capacity is projected to be installed by 2022–2023, bringing us into the era of TW-scale PV. Given the speed of change in the PV industry, both in terms of continued dramatic cost decreases and manufacturing-scale increases, the growth toward TW-scale PV has caught many observers, including many of us (1), by surprise. Two years ago, we focused on the challenges of achieving 3 to 10 TW of PV by 2030. Here, we envision a future with ∼10 TW of PV by 2030 and 30 to 70 TW by 2050, providing a majority of global energy. PV would be not just a key contributor to electricity generation but also a central contributor to all segments of the global energy system. We discuss ramifications and challenges for complementary technologies (e.g., energy storage, power to gas/liquid fuels/chemicals, grid integration, and multiple sector electrification) and summarize what is needed in research in PV performance, reliability, manufacturing, and recycling.

Adding Fig2.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #93 on: June 07, 2019, 06:56:47 AM »
Continuing from here:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2687.msg200388.html#msg200388

The preliminary numbers for 2018 are in:
https://www.ssb.no/natur-og-miljo/artikler-og-publikasjoner/klimagassutslippene-flater-ut

Quote
Preliminary figures show that 0.4 per cent more greenhouse gases were emitted in 2018 than the year before. The increase is due to a smaller share of biofuels in road traffic and more consumption of fossil fuels for other modes of transport.

Emissions of greenhouse gases in Norway amounted to almost 53 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents in 2018, which means about 200,000 tonnes of CO 2 equivalents more, than in 2017.

Higher consumption

Emissions from aviation, shipping, fishing, power tools etc. increased by more than 6 per cent compared with 2017. In total, this group accounts for 7.5 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents. The increase is due to rising consumption of plant diesel, marine gas oils and jet paraffin. According to the statistics Petroleum products , sales of plant diesel, marine gas oils and jet paraffin increased by 8 per cent, 7 per cent and 4 per cent respectively in 2018.

More emissions from road traffic

Road traffic accounted for 9 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent emissions, which represents an increase of almost 3 per cent from 2017. According to the statistics on petroleum products, sales of petrol and auto diesel were down in the period. The sales figures include biofuels, and the increase in CO 2 emissions is due to a significant reduction in the proportion of biofuels in the fuel mixture. The decline in the share of biofuels is mainly due to a sharp reduction in imported palm oil.

Decrease in oil and gas, heating and energy supply

Emissions of greenhouse gases from oil and gas extraction decreased by over 1% from 2017 to 14.5 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents. The production of oil and gas on the Norwegian shelf also showed a decline according to norskpetroleum.no . There was also a decline in heating in other industries and households, as well as energy supply.

Ending this with the same comment, behold the mitigation...
« Last Edit: June 07, 2019, 07:02:31 AM by Sleepy »
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #94 on: June 13, 2019, 08:08:48 AM »
Getting back to cars...

It's now looking like we're on the cusp of a major transition away from ICEVs.  We seem to be very close (less than five years) from driverless taxi service.  When that happens most people are going to find it cheaper to phone for a ride than to own a car and cheaper to share rides with others.

If you assume that one robotaxi could, on average, serve three people per day the cost of "owning" drops from 100% to somewhere between 33% and 50%.  33% + profits to the actual owner.  The cost of energy per mile drops a similar amount.  The cost of insurance drops even more because self-driving cars will have far fewer crashes than human driven cars.  Being willing to share a ride with others, something we do every day on planes, trains, buses and subways, will create another drop in cost per mile to ride.

The hassles of car maintenance, registration, fueling/charging, and parking disappear.

Some of the first to abandon car ownership will be the people with the slimmest financial resources.  First time they need a couple new tires, a battery, a water pump,  or whatever and they don't have the cash or credit to pay they're likely to call for a ride.  They'll ride to where they want to go in a comfortable, reliable car for less than what they would have spent for fuel.  Their clunker won't get fixed.

People with not a lot of extra cash will realize that if they didn't own a car but phoned for a robo they could pay down some debt, remodel their kitchen, take a nice vacation each year.  Over a few years and especially as their ICEVs start to require more repairs they'll dump their gasmobiles.

Older folks for who driving is no longer easy will phone in.  Parents will quit buying cars for their kids to drive to school.  Younger people will not bother buying a car if they can phone for a cheap ride when other cheap transportation wouldn't work.

Over just a few years the market for ICEVs and cars in general is likely to shrink.  Many currently profitable car manufacturers probably couldn't survive a permanent 20% drop in sales.  In order to survive their first move is likely to be to raise the asking price for their cars, further shrinking the market.

The new car market is likely to quickly become EVs and EV robotaxis, mostly robotaxis.  Dealerships and repair shops will close.  Gas stations will close.  It will be more difficult to repair and fuel an ICEV if you do own one.  And that will push more people into robotaxis.

I'm seeing a spectacular ICEV crash.  The timing now largely depends on how rapidly we can open battery factories and create the material flows to supply them.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #95 on: June 13, 2019, 09:20:53 AM »
Getting back to cars...
<snip>

No, maybe the Electric cars thread would be better Bob:
Where do we discuss what’s happening with the traditional auto manufacturers and whether they are succeeding with their transition to EVs... or facing bankruptcy?

You can discuss that here as well, as it's part of the same dynamic.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #96 on: June 13, 2019, 04:48:03 PM »
Getting back to cars...
 
If you assume that one robotaxi could, on average, serve three people per day the cost of "owning" drops from 100% to somewhere between 33% and 50%.  33% + profits to the actual owner.  The cost of energy per mile drops a similar amount.  The cost of insurance drops even more because self-driving cars will have far fewer crashes than human driven cars.   

Robotaxi's won't all necessarily be battery-electric, so this may be an appropriate place for this discussion.

Three people per day?  I'd think 8 would be a conservative estimate.  They'll operate 24/7, except for charging and maintenance.  Some ride-sharing fares would happen among the price-conscious.
 Virtually any sane person who wants to go out for drinks would ditch their car for the outing. Such an option might become the norm for sending the kids to and from school. 

Some think self-driving tech will never work, but I agree with your description here.  AI doesn't have to be that good to be better than all the bad human drivers out there.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #97 on: June 13, 2019, 05:30:23 PM »
I think so too, SteveMDFP, but what I am afraid of is week after week of 800 Americans killed by cars and no reporting, and one American killed by a robocar and "WE INTERRUPT THIS PROGRAM - A ROBOCAR KILLED A MOTHER OF THREE IN DES MOINES".
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #98 on: June 14, 2019, 01:14:32 AM »
Quote
Three people per day?  I'd think 8 would be a conservative estimate.

If it works at 3 then it will be even better at 8.   ;)

I suspect a lot of cars will get used for the morning/afternoon commute.  That's going to put a lot of car close to workplaces during the day and back into residential areas after the workday.  The need for the daily commute is likely to require many more cars than the number needed during the day to run errands and in the evening to run errands. 

I have no idea how to determine the actual number and I doubt anyone else can at this point in time.  We're likely to have a few years during which people learn how robotaxis do or do not work for them.  And the taxi services are going to have to figure out how to serve their customers with as few cars as possible.  We're likely to see really inexpensive prices offered in order to move some riders out of the normal commute crush and lower the inventory needed to handle peak demand.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« Reply #99 on: June 14, 2019, 01:20:42 AM »
Getting back to cars...
<snip>

No, maybe the Electric cars thread would be better Bob:
Where do we discuss what’s happening with the traditional auto manufacturers and whether they are succeeding with their transition to EVs... or facing bankruptcy?

You can discuss that here as well, as it's part of the same dynamic.

Sorry if I went too far off topic.  But my post was about the survival of traditional ICEV manufactures.  I think the ones that are around 20 years from now will be the ones who probably take a trip through bankruptcy courts in order to shed most of their factories, debts, and obligations to employees and emerge as robotaxi companies that manufacture their own taxis.

A few smaller companies such as Volvo might make a quick enough move to EVs.  They're getting locked in with a self-driving company which should give them the complete package.