Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Does El Niño affect Arctic sea ice?  (Read 7521 times)

Killian

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 250
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Does El Niño affect Arctic sea ice?
« Reply #50 on: August 12, 2019, 11:05:27 AM »
<snip, Killian is on moderation for the time being; N.>
« Last Edit: August 12, 2019, 06:25:45 PM by Neven »

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1069
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 278
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: Does El Niño affect Arctic sea ice?
« Reply #51 on: August 12, 2019, 11:07:51 AM »
As to the ethics of publishing private messages: A correspondent cannot unilaterally declare privacy, and I feel free to publish any such messages unless in the unlikely case that I have previously aggreed to keep future correspondence private. Which I won't do, as they tend to be a vector of vitriol, best neutralized by exposing it to sunlight.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 887
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 255
  • Likes Given: 217
Re: Does El Niño affect Arctic sea ice?
« Reply #52 on: August 12, 2019, 11:33:11 AM »
All I can say Binntho is thanks for taking the time and effort . I appreciate the outcome .. :) , b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Tony Mcleod

  • New ice
  • Posts: 72
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: Does El Niño affect Arctic sea ice?
« Reply #53 on: August 13, 2019, 11:15:39 AM »
All I can say Binntho is thanks for taking the time and effort.

Hear, hear.

Killian

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 250
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Does El Niño affect Arctic sea ice?
« Reply #54 on: November 06, 2019, 07:09:35 PM »
If this model has the accuracy claimed, expect a new low/near new low in the 2020-2022 period.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-predict-el-nino-2020-163608017.html

Per many discussions over the years, and particularly this past summer, I think we can generally agree on a couple/few points:

1. Weather matters.
2. Insolation in June is really important.
3. Export via Fram is THE big driver of losses in-season.
4. Bottom melt is THE big driver over time.
5. Powerful storms, at the right time, matter.
6. Pacific heat and humidity affect ASI.

Debatelable: El Nino matters. But:

EN in 2015-16 = new 2nd low in '16.
EN in 2018 = new 2nd lowest in '19.

I suggest a big EN in 2020 - or any EN in 2020, will have a new 2nd lowest within the two summers. It's pretty simple: You drag a bunch of heat up out of the deep Pacific and unload it on NA/SA, some of it's going to end up in the Arctic.

Of course, we could get '07 and '12 wind patterns before then and get a new 2nd or - unlikely ('12 truly was a massive outlier) - a new low, but I'll put my $$ on the next EN to get us closest or past 2012.

Cheers

Phil.

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 341
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 36
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Does El Niño affect Arctic sea ice?
« Reply #55 on: November 10, 2019, 02:15:47 AM »
Wayne who sometimes posts here has discussed the effect of El Nino on his blog from time to time.

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/05/clouded-global-heat-transfers-from.html

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1576
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 349
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: Does El Niño affect Arctic sea ice?
« Reply #56 on: November 19, 2019, 05:21:53 AM »
Early warning: Physicists from Giessen, Potsdam and Tel Aviv forecast "El Niño" for 2020
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/early-warning-physicists-from-giessen-potsdam-and-tel-aviv-forecast-el-nino-for-2020
Quote
"Conventional methods are unable to make a reliable 'El Niño' forecast more than six months in advance. With our method, we have roughly doubled the previous warning time," stresses JLU physicist Armin Bunde, who initiated the development of the algorithm together with his former PhD student Josef Ludescher. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director Emeritus of PIK, explains: "This clever combination of measured data and mathematics gives us unique insights - and we make these available to the people affected.” He points out that, of course, the prediction method does not offer one hundred percent certainty: "The probability of 'El Niño' coming in 2020 is around 80 percent. But that's pretty significant."

Very early warning signal for El Niño in 2020 with a 4 in 5 likelihood
https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.14642
Quote
(Submitted on 31 Oct 2019)
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently we have developed a network approach, which allows forecasting an El Niño event about 1 year ahead. Here we communicate that since 2012 this network approach, which does not involve any fit parameter, correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012, 2013 and 2017 as well as the onset of the large El Niño event that started in 2014 and ended in 2016. Our model also correctly forecasted the onset of the last El Niño event in 2018. In September 2019, the model indicated the return of El Niño in 2020 with an 80% probability.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS