Dr. Judah Cohen at the AER Risk Assessment has identified a coupling of tropospheric and stratospheric polar lows, looking forward about 10 days time. This would create a proper basin in atmospheric heights over the Arctic for a positive arctic oscillation mode, with a slightly less "wavy" jet stream, or at least one that isn't dissolving as much
This forecast is an improvement and it would, for the first time, interrupt the 5 straight months of high anomalies over vast reaches of the Arctic. We would get less severe weather, and I think zonal flow would start to strengthen.
https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1181231290349215744It was famously predicted, here in this thread, that there will be jet streams at the north pole 4 times, 8 days apart. I didn't want to predict anything because of how much of a complete nonsense Dunning Kruger I am on this, but I went down the rabbit hole to see for myself, so might as well see what it's worth.
2018/2019 was a cold winter on this chart, never expected it to be so well behaved again?
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.phpWell what have I heard a dozen times? That the recovery enables the big anomaly. A big melt year will be preceded by a recovery year.
In systems thinking you could also identify a return to normal right before an outright crash. Resistance right at the breaking point.
What I do, is just like... we could be experiencing mixed modes of ice age inter-glacial vs. Eocene Hothouse and be losing angular momentum as a result. That would, complete wild guess, be a feedback that is not assessed. Climate models are tested for retained atmospheric angular momentum, because it is a value that is assumed to be conserved in our future. Well if there's this much mixing, where's the friction? Adiabatic heating and wave interference along with heavier storm bursts. Raising the tropopause 15 meters worldwide was a really bad idea. It allows waves from the tropics to cross over the north pole.
So I am extremely interested in how this forecast plays out. I want to be wrong about there being perpetual splashes of jet stream across the Arctic four or eight days apart, making it look like the whole atmosphere is stalling.
It never should have lasted this long. Since May 1 2019. I thought it would not have lasted this long, but stratospheric polar vortex was always gonna stomp all over this thing in the end. There will be a stratospheric PV formation just like every winter. It will catch a wave and begin to pinball around the Arctic in November, and it will experience a messy destruction in January or February with cruel cold Arctic outbreaks in the Upper Plains & Great Lakes, and this will be completely normal and boring compared to the past five months of 2019.
I know some predictive tools have been bullish on a very strong polar vortex signal with definite AO+ NAO+ going back 6 weeks. Now it's showing up in the weather models.
If this is coming true, then there will not be a large heat anomaly and accompanying jet stream ridge breaking off into a cut off high in the vicinity of the North Pole on October 16-18 and there is hope for a real change in the pattern.
and if not*, I will bug out early, see you in Patagonia where we will eat beavers and wait for land to open up in Antarctica
I will be watching the ocean heat anomalies
I will be watching the polar cap height FOR SOME BLUE
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtmlThe AO index and predictability:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gifAnd I will be watching very closely for evidence we aren't bleeding AAM like we're dying
http://atlas.niu.edu/