Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting  (Read 18992 times)

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #100 on: September 24, 2019, 08:58:51 AM »
I want to find if the period of May 1 - Present is the longest span of negative Arctic Oscillation index in recorded history

Many many such records are being annihilated by this... Thing

May 1, 2019.  At the final warming of the winter polar vortex, we had a Sudden Stratospheric Warming come and take it out violently.  The Atmosphere of the Arctic split in 2 from Space to Earth, leaving a huge tropical height air mass balancing itself over the North Pole.

that made 2 SSW last winter.  average is 6 per decade.

Right now we stand, in science, with disagreement over if thin sea ice promotes impacts that can be felt where we live.  That's the bar.

No paper is allowed to say that SSW are increasing severely.  Acceleration is barely rising to attention.  Oh, DO YOU THINK ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKING IS ON THE RISE?? No journal has suggested that Arctic Sea Ice could disappear in the 2020's.  This was the province of sects and of alarmists, catastrophists and doomers

These are called "blocks" but really what they are is tropical air reaching the North Pole.  They were called "blocks" because they held position somewhere and blocked.  I've never heard of dual roving heat domes arising in the Tropics proceeding due north along the Prime Meridian and cutting the polar cell in half on every weather graph.

As a result,   2019 has been an absolute climate disaster worldwide.

The tropics breaking the jet stream to reach the pole has been unrelenting and symmetrical.  It's ran off the charts of the AO Index.  The jet stream has been reaching the north pole from both sides of the Earth simultaneously nonstop in 2019.  embarrassing.

I will never publish in a journal.  I will die from an abrupt and running away climate.  oh well, life is meaningless, and I was happy with that long ago. 

I don't want to do this but I will.

The climate is essentially a mix of equable and interglacial climate patterns right now, has been for months, and potentially will be deep into Autumn.

I would predict storms, lots of huge fucking storms, amidst a back drop of complete atmospheric restructuring.

This is the Fourth Bowl of Wrath.
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #101 on: September 24, 2019, 09:15:39 AM »
Arctic atmosphere is generally thickening because of repeated SSWs and warm incursions from south? The older model of tropopause heights lowering towards arctic isn't too good anymore? Is cloud height over Arctic increasing? Please do the same for dec-march. The warming should be more pronounced during winters, thus even higher anomalies might be present.

November 2016 off the top of my head.  11/1 through 11/15 GHPA over the Arctic was in the 200's.  But this isn't Winter.

Put it this way:  Last winter we had a wicked Polar Vortex in January.  We just had a Spring & Summer with 20 more.

I'll find what I think are the best analog years.  Years in which such influences might have been present in an older Arctic.  There are some, suggesting solar minimum and thin sea ice are both parts of the problem right now... neither of which is going away in one year's time.
I am not a scientist

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 618
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 194
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #102 on: September 24, 2019, 10:06:04 AM »
  I will die from an abrupt and running away climate.  oh well, life is meaningless, and I was happy with that long ago. 



The climate is essentially a mix of equable and interglacial climate patterns right now, has been for months, and potentially will be deep into Autumn.

I would predict storms, lots of huge fucking storms, amidst a back drop of complete atmospheric restructuring.

This is the Fourth Bowl of Wrath.

I don't know about the apocalypse and the huge m**f**ing storms, BUT:

We know that during the Eemian we had no ice cover over the Arctic and yet that did not lead to an equable climate. So hold your horses for a while yet. Besides, despite the warm intrusions, summers are still dominated by much lower geopotential heights over the Arctic than the tropics:

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 618
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 194
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #103 on: September 24, 2019, 10:09:35 AM »
Just a quick reminder on the Eemian from wikipedia:

"Although global annual mean temperatures were probably several degrees warmer than today, during summer months, temperatures in the Arctic region were about 2-4 °C higher than today.[10] The warmest peak of the Eemian was around 125,000 years ago, when forests reached as far north as North Cape, Norway (which is now tundra) well above the Arctic Circle at 71°10′21″N 25°47′40″E. Hardwood trees such as hazel and oak grew as far north as Oulu, Finland.

At the peak of the Eemian, the Northern Hemisphere winters were generally warmer and wetter than now, though some areas were actually slightly cooler than today. The hippopotamus was distributed as far north as the rivers Rhine and Thames.[11] Trees grew as far north as southern Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: currently, the northern limit is further south at Kuujjuaq in northern Quebec. Coastal Alaska was warm enough during the summer due to reduced sea ice in the Arctic Ocean to allow Saint Lawrence Island (now tundra) to have boreal forest"

AND:

"Sea level at peak was probably 6 to 9 metres (20 to 30 feet) higher than today,[17][18] with Greenland contributing 0.6 to 3.5 m (2.0 to 11.5 ft),[19] thermal expansion and mountain glaciers contributing up to 1 m (3.3 ft),[20] and an uncertain contribution from Antarctica.[21] Recent research on marine sediment cores offshore of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet suggest that the sheet melted during the Eemian, and that ocean waters rose as fast as 2.5 meters per century.[22] Global mean sea surface temperatures are thought to have been higher than in the Holocene, but not by enough to explain the rise in sea level through thermal expansion alone, and so melting of polar ice caps must also have occurred"

Pmt111500

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1887
  • Yes, I do not always bicycle
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 96
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #104 on: September 24, 2019, 10:17:11 AM »
El Cid wrote:
Quote
We know that during the Eemian we had no ice cover over the Arctic and yet that did not lead to an equable climate. So hold your horses for a while yet. Besides, despite the warm intrusions, summers are still dominated by much lower geopotential heights over the Arctic than the tropics:
Yes tropical cloud height has increased a bit in the last twenty something years. This would be why anomalies or absolute amount of changes from 80s-90s, over the Arctic and Antarctic could make for a more clarifying image.
Quote
Global mean sea surface temperatures are thought to have been higher than in the Holocene, but not by enough to explain the rise in sea level through thermal expansion alone, and so melting of polar ice caps must also have occurred"
This would probably have happened in WAIS, since the Eemian layer there are, if remembering correctly, quite messy.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #105 on: September 24, 2019, 10:26:24 AM »
Thank you.

Yes, the Eemian.  Will we shoot right past it.

I wasn't aware the Eemian saw complete loss of Arctic Sea Ice?

"The latter is a time interval when the high latitudes were significantly warmer than today. We document that even under such warmer climate conditions, sea ice existed in the central Arctic Ocean during summer, whereas sea ice was significantly reduced along the Barents Sea continental margin influenced by Atlantic Water inflow. Our proxy reconstruction of the last interglacial sea ice cover is supported by climate simulations"

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00552-1
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #106 on: September 24, 2019, 10:54:51 AM »
Quick prediction easy to make:  atmospheric blocking reaching the North Pole..   Sept 30, Oct 8, Oct 17, Oct 25th.

I'm trying to put an end to this with falsifiable claims

I am not a scientist

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 618
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 194
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #107 on: September 24, 2019, 12:07:05 PM »
I did read some studies that claimed that the Eemian was likely ice free during summer, eg:

"A seasonally sea ice-free Arctic hypothesis, however, is supported by recent studies of the last interglacial in
high Northern Hemisphere showing evidence that some part of the last interglacial was warmer than the
Holocene interglacial"
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1307/6/7/072002/pdf

and even the one you quoted says:

"During the MIS 5 interstadials, a seasonal sea ice cover and ice-edge conditions seem to have been most prominent, with minimum sea ice concentrations towards almost ice-free summers during MIS 5e (Eemian)"

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #108 on: September 25, 2019, 11:24:02 AM »
This is the largest JJA atmospheric height anomaly over the Arctic in the records, by far.  Did not even need to look

I'm surprised it wasn't 1997 or 2007 that struck out.  1977 and 2011 have even higher heights in much more confined anomalies  1998 is the one that looks the most similar.  There's many things to see in the record.  The two most important factors seem to be Solar Minimum, & Thin Sea Ice.

54, 58, 60, 77, 93, 98, 07, 09, 11, 15 for JJA.  2019 wins.

Any other span of time since May 1 2019 and still the champion * BUT PROBABLY a different set of contenders!

The analog years are all in the Eemian.
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #109 on: September 25, 2019, 11:57:09 AM »
actually, I take that back.  the June July August heights in 1977, 2007, and 2011 heights are all very sharp and pronounced, with wide areas above 110 meters.

in 2019 the stability of high height anticyclonic air over the North Pole is apparently nothing compared to those years, in JJA.  the persistence is all new, of this there is, so far, no doubt.

I wish there was better ways to see past weather.  This analog effort appears to be handy.

This would be the best chart to run.  "Atmospheric Polar Cap Height"  Anybody know how to make them?
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #110 on: September 25, 2019, 12:53:44 PM »
This is one of the rare signs of recovery that have come & gone in 2019 ... something has to break this pattern or we'll have to restart the polar cell ourselves

First long range indication from GFS ensemble of a true positive break in the AO index.  Some such forecasts have come & gone but it has long been expected that the anomaly will subside at some point before winter, and all expectations have been disappointments since the first of May.  Well... here comes the first chance we have,  I think, to see a break in the pattern.

A tighter AO would I believe have good implications for weather worldwide, or at least in the Northern Hemisphere, by around October's end.  Less superblizzards and droughts everywhere, perhaps.  Less hail damage too.

I don't believe the AO can be positive much longer.  If these types of years are 3 out of 10, what would one of these do to the Arctic in 10 years?  say, next solar minimum?  No sea ice + tropical air has a tendency to reach the North Pole because of sunspots or some other cycle 

The Arctic would absolutely flip to tropical.

Greenland would be all that is left to provide us with a jet stream.

In ten years nothing will be ready for that kind of thing.  We would collapse & die off.  Permafrost would double the GHG again.  It would runaway.

It's just us
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #111 on: September 27, 2019, 08:51:49 AM »
Past 15 days have been lining up to something really pretty global.  October 4th is when it all sort of comes to fruition and we have hot oceans, thin sea ice, solar minimum, SSW

Something to do with AAM.  Anybody know where to see a forecast of atmospheric angular momentum?  (password changed)

Edit: http://atlas.niu.edu/
« Last Edit: September 27, 2019, 09:22:24 AM by sark »
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #112 on: September 27, 2019, 10:07:24 AM »
Jason Furtado

Heat flux from the Pacific sector forecast to enter the stratosphere in the next two weeks (first two maps - orange/red). Should build an Siberian anticyclone into the lower and mid-stratosphere, weakening the stratospheric #PolarVortex (last plot).

https://twitter.com/wxjay/status/1177235181729697793

Judah Cohen

Is it too soon to talk about the #PolarVortex (PV)? Well GFS is predicting first minor disruption of PV of the season the second week of October with elongation of PV from Siberia to Canada and negative stratospheric #Arctic Oscillation that favors buildup of #cold air in Canada.

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1177210678693830658

Judah is still worried what other people think, so that's a good sign I guess.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

The polar cell can't "die" can it?
I am not a scientist

HapHazard

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 172
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 69
  • Likes Given: 1149
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #113 on: September 27, 2019, 08:05:20 PM »
Really digging this thread, thanks.

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 788
  • Likes Given: 164
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #114 on: September 27, 2019, 08:18:38 PM »
Something to do with AAM.  Anybody know where to see a forecast of atmospheric angular momentum?  (password changed)

Edit: http://atlas.niu.edu/
Much of the AAM/GWO mapwall doesn't load for me on that link. Where did the animation come from?

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #115 on: September 27, 2019, 08:21:57 PM »
the niu.edu link was for a graph of atmospheric angular momentum.

the Z200 heights is from CPC https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml
I am not a scientist

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 788
  • Likes Given: 164
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #116 on: September 27, 2019, 08:31:18 PM »
thanks, saw the graph there and now ncep ani

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 788
  • Likes Given: 164

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #118 on: September 28, 2019, 11:19:11 AM »
Hour 360 GFS, my favorite tool for indicating distant northern blocking patterns.  This one looks pretty stable over the North Pole
I am not a scientist

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 788
  • Likes Given: 164
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #119 on: September 28, 2019, 11:40:49 AM »
Quick prediction easy to make:  atmospheric blocking reaching the North Pole..   Sept 30, Oct 8, Oct 17, Oct 25th.
I'm trying to put an end to this with falsifiable claims
How is sep30 looking?

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #120 on: September 28, 2019, 03:17:44 PM »
We got Sept 30 peaking right now

and Oct 8 is lining up, muted now in ECMWF long range (which is also showing a blob over the North Pole)  and the Oct 17 blocking would be showing up soon.  I think it just did as that dot dead center as Oct 13... should materialize
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #121 on: September 29, 2019, 08:28:31 AM »
Given the implications of a stalled atmosphere at these temps and Holy Christ I thought it is running away to Hothouse now

Maybe next El Nino
I am not a scientist

Pmt111500

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1887
  • Yes, I do not always bicycle
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 96
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #122 on: September 29, 2019, 08:55:53 AM »
Given the implications of a stalled atmosphere at these temps and Holy Christ I thought it is running away to Hothouse now

Maybe next El Nino

Umm, this would fit to the 2022-23 I got after sometime (2015?) using the most extreme extrapolation I could allow. This would be a possible mechanism of speedy clearance of Arctic Sea Ice. After 2017 didn't fall very low I've been more towards the speedier models estimate of late 2030s-40s. Not ruling this fast thing out, though. Some cool years ahead for North Atlantic after clearance, not much elsewhere.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #123 on: September 30, 2019, 02:21:03 AM »
Here's a combined image of Arctic Atmosphere Height since it literally ran off the chart.

5 months straight.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #124 on: October 02, 2019, 09:04:33 AM »
00z Wednesday GEM.  Can't post this on Twitter because their software filters out disease.

850mb Temp Anomaly of a very large input ensemble weather model: GEPS.  Hour 222

It's not quadrupole any more.  The entire atmosphere slowed down all September.  I say OCTUPOLE

Anthony Masiello says quadrant-symmetric, k=4

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1179074664817188866

GIF hosted here https://imgur.com/a/D9x2GOa
« Last Edit: October 02, 2019, 09:22:48 AM by sark »
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #125 on: October 02, 2019, 12:32:47 PM »
CanSIPS is out for October.  Here's the month of October 500mba
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #126 on: October 03, 2019, 04:46:29 AM »
Vorticity reaches out over more of the globe as the entire pattern of "polar cell" precesses about, impinged by floods of Tropical Air reaching the North Pole every 15 days, every 8, and now every 4.

SPOOKY OCTOBER.  Blocking loading pattern is a cross.  It looks a lot like the first steam toy ever created, a pivot with 4 pipes like the spokes of a wheel.  sitting above water in a crude boiler and a stem, steam would shoot out of the 4 pipes.

The polar cell is severely impinged.  The way hot air is rocketing in from all sides simultaneously, My God.  Waves are breaking in the Arctic every 4 days at this point.

This GEM t850mba illustrates that fact of life.

Frightful!
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #127 on: October 03, 2019, 04:56:43 AM »
Anthony Masiello the Archangel has already found some kind of analog I don't even understand

"I sorted the Hurrell PC-based DJF NAO years since 1979 by most positive/negative. I plotted the 250mb height difference by subtracting the 10 most positive DJF from the 10 most negative DJF for Sep, Oct and Nov. Below is a loop of the 3 months in R1."

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1178786898816503809
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #128 on: October 03, 2019, 06:13:02 AM »
I don't know this signal, but from what I saw it went down to about the lowest ever.
Top is a year of total atmosphere force.  July, August, and September are all under.

http://atlas.niu.edu/analysis/aam/MR-latest-365days.png

This kind of thing is dangerous, a line up of influences that contribute to weak polar vortex.  for now, I think just amped extremes, retrograde surprises, weak polar vortex, more of the same, only worse.

The ozone thing is due to the Southern SSW and the polar strataospheres.  I wonder what age of air looks like.  From where I'm sitting, looks like ozone created at the poles and not at the tropics lately

Singapore Sonde Station:  https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #129 on: October 04, 2019, 08:34:10 AM »
AAM dropping

Ensembles are strongly AO-

can't turn away.
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #130 on: October 04, 2019, 09:33:19 AM »
QBO winds shapes in the form of a trend graph.  Gives you the sense 2019 is making a turn in the same way as 2016.

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/#singaeof

2015-2016 was the first time there was an interruption of the QBO progression.

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/#momentump

https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/6813/2017/

Response of trace gases to the disrupted 2015–2016 quasi-biennial oscillation

This should have been a once in a lifetime event.  I'll bet $300 it is happening again.

I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #131 on: October 04, 2019, 09:38:29 AM »
Right now you can literally post any chart and you'll look like a genius because there's a cool signal on each one!
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #132 on: October 05, 2019, 07:33:50 AM »
Or literally just post any academic paper

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.3600

It is well known that global warming in the 20th century has influenced the global circulation of the atmosphere. Atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), a measure of the rotation of the atmosphere around the Earth's axis, is a useful quantity to investigate changes in the global atmospheric circulation. In this study, 20th century trends in the AAM budget are determined using the ERA‐20C reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In addition, the closure of the AAM budget is determined to assess the ability of ERA‐20C to conserve angular momentum. The total AAM has increased in the 20th century, associated mainly with an increasing relative (zonal wind) AAM in most of the stratosphere and the tropical upper troposphere, and a poleward redistribution in the midlatitudes. These trends can be related to the warming in the troposphere and cooling in the lower stratosphere found in this study, likely caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The Ω‐AAM, representing the rotation of the atmosphere along with the Earth, shows no clear trend, but a spurious peak around 1920. This peak is caused by a global increase in surface pressure and is considered an artefact of changes in the amount of assimilated observations. It is also found that the AAM budget is not well closed in ERA‐20C, which is mainly the result of the assimilation of observations during production of the reanalysis. The trends in the AAM budget in ERA‐20C are likely affected by changes in the number of assimilated observations and should be validated with other reanalyses in further research.

http://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #133 on: October 05, 2019, 07:55:08 AM »
same article

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.3600

A useful quantity to study the global circulation of the atmosphere is the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), which is related to the global surface pressure and zonal wind distributions. The AAM is a measure of the rotation of the atmosphere around the north–south axis of the Earth. Since angular momentum is a conserved quantity, the angular momentum of the atmosphere, the solid Earth, and oceans combined is constant in the absence of external torques (Peixoto and Oort, 1992). However, angular momentum is exchanged between the atmosphere and the Earth and oceans by torques. The two main torques acting on the atmosphere are the friction and mountain torque, caused by friction at the Earth's surface and surface pressure gradients across orography, respectively (Peixoto and Oort, 1992).

With all these predictive signals lighting up hot what gives.  Is QBO-E better or worse for polar vortex?
I am not a scientist

MyACIsDying

  • New ice
  • Posts: 54
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 50
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #134 on: October 05, 2019, 01:30:51 PM »
same article

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.3600
..

Lots of one year graphs/temporal events in this thread, AAM is on an upward trend if anything? They're using a lot of different Mx figures though, where do I find a long term graph of your one year source that puts this largest drop ever into context?

Quote
5.2 Trend analysis
To study trends in the AAM budget, the monthly mean AAM and monthly mean torques were calculated throughout the 20th century using the ECMWF ERA‐20C reanalysis. We found that the total AAM has increased during the 20th century with a linear trend of approximately 0.86×1023 kg m2 s−1 per year. In response to a doubling of the CO2 concentration in about 60 years, Huang et al. (2001) observed an increase in AAM of approximately 2.4×1023 kg m2 s−1 per year. Averaged over 16 climate models, Räisänen (2003) found an increase in relative AAM of about 1.0×1023 kg m2 s−1 per year when the CO2 concentration doubles in 70 years. Both increases are larger than the trend found in this study, which is not surprising, because the CO2 concentration has not doubled yet in the 20th century (IPCC, 2013). In reanalysis data, del Rio (1999) found an increase in the length of a day of about 5.6×10−5s per year between 1949 and 1997, which corresponds to an AAM trend of approximately 3.3×1023 kg m2 s−1 per year (Rosen and Salstein, 1983). This trend is also significantly larger than the trend in this study, which may to some extent be explained by the shorter time period studied by del Rio (1999): as shown in Figure 3b, the AAM trend in the second half of the 20th century is slightly larger than the trend in the whole 20th century. Paek and Huang (2013) found a positive AAM trend in the 20th century in CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations, due mainly to an increase in relative AAM. Using the NCAR/NCEP 20CR reanalysis data, Paek and Huang (2012) also found an increase in relative AAM between 1871 and 2008. Although they did not quantify the trend explicitly, it is of the same order of magnitude (figure 1a in Paek and Huang (2012)) as the trend in this study.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3980
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 430
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #135 on: October 05, 2019, 06:36:24 PM »
sark...would like to thank you for bringing this thread to life with links to research. No doubt, global warming will have huge impacts on atmospheric circulation. Would love to have the more informed here explain to idiots like me what these changes mean. Something more than we're screwed please.

HapHazard

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 172
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 69
  • Likes Given: 1149
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #136 on: October 06, 2019, 02:25:00 AM »
sark...would like to thank you for bringing this thread to life with links to research. No doubt, global warming will have huge impacts on atmospheric circulation. Would love to have the more informed here explain to idiots like me what these changes mean. Something more than we're screwed please.

+1

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #137 on: October 07, 2019, 01:07:05 AM »
Quick prediction easy to make:  atmospheric blocking reaching the North Pole..   Sept 30, Oct 8, Oct 17, Oct 25th.

I'm trying to put an end to this with falsifiable claims

October 7th is here and the cut off block is reaching the North Pole on time.  Every 8 days, no change yet.
I am not a scientist

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 166
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #138 on: October 07, 2019, 01:33:34 AM »
Quick prediction easy to make:  atmospheric blocking reaching the North Pole..   Sept 30, Oct 8, Oct 17, Oct 25th.

I'm trying to put an end to this with falsifiable claims

October 7th is here and the cut off block is reaching the North Pole on time.  Every 8 days, no change yet.
This will be accompanied by the second major snowstorm of the season for Montana, with heavy totals now also forecast for everything from Minneapolis and west. Most of the agricultural heartland could see temperatures dip well below freezing. And I think snowfall totals may ultimately extend into the Chicago suburbs. Very bad news!

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #139 on: October 07, 2019, 02:05:17 AM »
So far, nobody thinks the QBO progression is reversing.  Looking around at all the indications and factors that enhance long range predictability, right now everything is lined up for weak polar vortex

Except the QBO

So I kinda think QBO-E rising.
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #140 on: October 07, 2019, 03:16:07 AM »
I've combined the CPC's Arctic Atmosphere polar cap height to include the entire event in the Northern Hemisphere.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml


Very interesting reading:

Brian Farrell, however, argues that the assumptions are not accurate for equable climates and that during equable climates, angular momentum is not conserved in poleward moving particles (1990). He claims that angular momentum sinks, essentially sources of friction, could have been stronger during the Eocene and the Cretaceous. Farrell estimates that the friction term in his model would increase by eightfold under equable climate conditions. This change would prevent angular momentum from being conserved. In this situation, the zonal velocity would not become strong enough to stop air from moving poleward. Instead, air from the equator would be able to travel all the way to the poles in extended Hadley Cells.

https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/hadley.html

https://brian-f-farrell.fas.harvard.edu/publication
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #141 on: October 07, 2019, 09:38:38 AM »
papers are dropping hot in 2019

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00703-019-00663-y

A weak positive AAM trend is detected, but an examination of the AAM budget shows that on annual to decadal scales, the signals of the AAM and total torque are inconsistent. During the study period, the total torque was mostly negative and had a decreasing trend, suggesting a decrease of the AAM. To check this inconsistency, we analyze the time series of the length-of-day anomalies, ΔLOD. It is found that ΔLOD is weakly correlated with the AAM, while the derivative of the earth’s core-induced ΔLOD is strongly correlated with the torque. If this is correct, then a core-induced climate change can indeed happen.

if you look for things that could be restructuring boy the hits just keep coming

the Chinese are more fun than Harvard
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #142 on: October 08, 2019, 09:10:42 AM »
Dr. Judah Cohen at the AER Risk Assessment has identified a coupling of tropospheric and stratospheric polar lows, looking forward about 10 days time.  This would create a proper basin in atmospheric heights over the Arctic for a positive arctic oscillation mode, with a slightly less "wavy" jet stream, or at least one that isn't dissolving as much

This forecast is an improvement and it would, for the first time, interrupt the 5 straight months of high anomalies over vast reaches of the Arctic.  We would get less severe weather, and I think zonal flow would start to strengthen.

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1181231290349215744

It was famously predicted, here in this thread, that there will be jet streams at the north pole 4 times, 8 days apart.  I didn't want to predict anything because of how much of a complete nonsense Dunning Kruger I am on this, but I went down the rabbit hole to see for myself, so might as well see what it's worth.
 
2018/2019 was a cold winter on this chart, never expected it to be so well behaved again?
 http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Well what have I heard a dozen times?  That the recovery enables the big anomaly.  A big melt year will be preceded by a recovery year.

In systems thinking you could also identify a return to normal right before an outright crash.  Resistance right at the breaking point.

What I do, is just like... we could be experiencing mixed modes of ice age inter-glacial vs. Eocene Hothouse and be losing angular momentum as a result.  That would, complete wild guess, be a feedback that is not assessed.  Climate models are tested for retained atmospheric angular momentum, because it is a value that is assumed to be conserved in our future.  Well if there's this much mixing, where's the friction?  Adiabatic heating and wave interference along with heavier storm bursts.  Raising the tropopause 15 meters worldwide was a really bad idea.  It allows waves from the tropics to cross over the north pole.

So I am extremely interested in how this forecast plays out.  I want to be wrong about there being perpetual splashes of jet stream across the Arctic four or eight days apart, making it look like the whole atmosphere is stalling. 

It never should have lasted this long.  Since May 1 2019.  I thought it would not have lasted this long, but stratospheric polar vortex was always gonna stomp all over this thing in the end.  There will be a stratospheric PV formation just like every winter.  It will catch a wave and begin to pinball around the Arctic in November, and it will experience a messy destruction in January or February with cruel cold Arctic outbreaks in the Upper Plains & Great Lakes, and this will be completely normal and boring compared to the past five months of 2019.

I know some predictive tools have been bullish on a very strong polar vortex signal with definite AO+ NAO+ going back 6 weeks.  Now it's showing up in the weather models.

If this is coming true, then there will not be a large heat anomaly and accompanying jet stream ridge breaking off into a cut off high in the vicinity of the North Pole on October 16-18 and there is hope for a real change in the pattern.

and if not*, I will bug out early, see you in Patagonia where we will eat beavers and wait for land to open up in Antarctica

I will be watching the ocean heat anomalies

I will be watching the polar cap height FOR SOME BLUE https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml

The AO index and predictability: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

And I will be watching very closely for evidence we aren't bleeding AAM like we're dying http://atlas.niu.edu/
« Last Edit: October 08, 2019, 09:40:09 AM by sark »
I am not a scientist

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 788
  • Likes Given: 164
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #143 on: October 08, 2019, 11:27:59 AM »
A nice summary. Is there an archive for polar cap height somewhere?

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #144 on: October 08, 2019, 11:31:46 AM »
A nice summary. Is there an archive for polar cap height somewhere?

yeah.  ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/

I haven't found an easy way to look at them, instead am just looking at 500mb over the Arctic for summers back to '48.  I'd like to plot or find a method to plot them in this format, if you can find one
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #145 on: October 09, 2019, 08:14:45 PM »
Good strength here.  Continued deepening low over the North Pole in ensemble forecast.  In my view, this forecast breaks the five month streak of runaway worsening conditions for structural coherence of the atmosphere.

I do think the high height anomaly on Oct 16-18 arching up over the Kara Sea region will strengthen but so far the symmetrical loading from the other side of the planet looks rebuffed by a loose polar front.  A crazy ridge & Scandinavian block is preferable, IMHO, to a wide open incursion of high heights blasting across the North Pole.

Think positive AO
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #146 on: October 11, 2019, 08:55:53 AM »
This is the most impressive I have seen it for five and one half months.  Good strengthening trend observed. 

around the 1st of October it seems like a lot of people on wxtwitter were saying Boom.  I don't know what it was, but in early September I saw it referred to as a "line up."  something about the climatology lining up with the weather patterns.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2019, 09:43:37 AM by sark »
I am not a scientist

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4289
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 274
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #147 on: October 11, 2019, 11:15:44 AM »
Sark - FYI a brief discussion between my Arctic alter ego and Judah Cohen:

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1182311566265462784
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #148 on: October 13, 2019, 05:22:34 AM »
did you know about this
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #149 on: October 13, 2019, 05:25:22 AM »
look at the actual values of meridional

will it look stupid if I draw all over these charts with shitty GIMP tools to point stuff out

how this all comes together.  it's very bad
I am not a scientist