Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting  (Read 15729 times)

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #150 on: October 13, 2019, 05:38:10 AM »
It's the dynamics
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #151 on: October 13, 2019, 06:31:34 AM »
Red is height?

Apparently the tropopause pressure is lowering as the height increases.  Yes I know it is a short period but that's the point.  This started with "what's really going on" after merely watching for the past 20 years.  I spent the past year looking for my answer and I'm feeling close to finished

Tropopause pressure is lower meaning IMHO the wave tank is taller by in the neighborhood of 200 meters?  In my mind,  atmospheric momentum must be slowing by this cap height rise.  different waves can propogate with a slowdown.  well, dynamics.

: http://code7700.com/weather_tropopause.htm

So AAM should be long term down as in Gong 2019 starting right about 1998 when things really kicked off with the jet stream, and the weather, die-off, heat rise, sea ice, etc.  Clearly clearly we are in Runaway with no one stopping it.

I can't believe anyone would think snow cover on land is not an important coupling with the atmosphere and therefore, extreme weather.  I saw those papers coming out trying to discredit the good work done by very technical, careful application of science into new frontiers

This  is a public service.  There's no time

« Last Edit: October 13, 2019, 09:36:55 AM by sark »
I am not a scientist

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1799
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 164
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #152 on: October 13, 2019, 11:27:25 AM »
I would propose we re-dub our current year -12. By all accounts 2031 is our new year 0. We just have not yet acknowledged it.

It is interesting to consider what the practical implications would be of a BOE. Like, heavy snows beginning in August, no cohesive polar vortex, and dual vortices establishing themselves early in Eurasia and North America. At that point the only remaining MYI may actually be sheltered in Hudson or Kara or Okhotsk (or some combo of the three) in addition to the CAA and southern CAB.

When the event begins, as it did in the Younger Dryas, the snowfall will not stop for the next summer in the coldest locations. Imagine winter 2014-15 in Boston, but tack on another 100" in March, and then in April, with another 50" in May and continued snows into June before insolation ultimately does the trick (for the last time in a long time).

How much snow will it take until the interstates are unusable? How much SWE will it take before roofs start caving in? How deep does the snow have to get before the power fails? How frequently do storms have to occur for maintenance to become impossible?

If a population is frozen in place, with no way to escape, and the power fails, there would be guaranteed mass death occurring in short order. Such an event would be much more democratic than heatwaves, where air conditioners provide relief for some.

What use is a generator when it is encased in snow 10' deep, and you can't vent through your roof because it is also covered in snow XX feet deep, and the power goes out? At that point, you are dead, and so is everyone else. Either from freezing, running out of food, carbon monoxide, or your roof caving in.

History indicates this is precisely what happened at the onset of the Younger Dryas. It didn't happen everywhere -- the Southeast US was safe -- but where onset occurred, the switch flipped instantaneously, in the span of a year. It is because the impending event is due to cascading impacts that will only be realized to be "final" (for our purposes) after they have already occurred.

#blackpill

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 885
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 253
  • Likes Given: 216
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #153 on: October 13, 2019, 01:37:02 PM »
so if the warming doesn't get you , bbr's snow most certainly will . Just chill .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #154 on: October 13, 2019, 02:27:28 PM »
I tend to believe the weather models that line up with the near term climatology.  that whole quadrupole thing is coming back in a big way.  See how many isobar figure 8s you can find across the north pole https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2019101212&fh=1

240 hour GEM *is* the tropopause anomaly.  this is what is meant with "lining up with the climatology" as I understand it.  this thing is a wave guide for weather we don't like
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #155 on: October 13, 2019, 02:29:49 PM »
so if the warming doesn't get you , bbr's snow most certainly will . Just chill .. b.c.

Why not all three?
I am not a scientist

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3960
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 416
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #156 on: October 13, 2019, 07:47:14 PM »
so if the warming doesn't get you , bbr's snow most certainly will . Just chill .. b.c.

Unpacks parka...

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #157 on: October 13, 2019, 09:22:51 PM »
Thank you all for not just laughing at me.  Although it is kind of funny.  What I have posted on this thread is truly thrown together by a completely unqualified researcher in full batshit mode.  There will be a more thorough and thoughtful write up, in time.

Operating theory is "we are in a runaway abrupt climate flip" and I want to disprove it to myself, but bear it in mind that I am completely unconstrained in my thinking & language.  Full power Dunning-Kruger.  This is from a lone mind bent on survival.  I don't have any allegiance or hesitancy based on academic norms.

I managed to click on the running mean AO index from 1950-present over here https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml

Added Paint.exe black line connecting the Jan 1 position for the last couple of years.  It would seem reasonable to guess that the AO index will be hovering around neutral on Jan 1 2020.
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #158 on: October 20, 2019, 05:20:34 AM »
When October looks like the thing, heh.  Yeah.  Things are changing at an exhilarating pace.

If you don't know what any of this means, just think the same general trends of the past 3-5 years, but more of it in the future.  Big mf storms.  Like in the Eemian, we're basically at that point now.

I would think that in 5 or 10 years it'll go beyond that.  At some point population will peak and then we will turn away.

This is giving voice to the unthinkable.  That's my special sight.  I'm just a broken clock pointed in the right direction.  IMHO
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #159 on: October 20, 2019, 05:41:37 AM »
at all levels practically.

doesn't matter that we still have sea ice.  whatever is wrong is already wrong too much, by looking around

I don't even need a bunch of fancy analogs, just use the last 3 or 5 years.

I question everything and wouldn't be surprised to see everything swing the other direction even worse.  I can't tell what the pattern of this quadrupole shape is actually doing right now, because the signal of rise in common atmosphere heights is so fast it blows out anything else.  the point is, what we already got is too much to take.  I'll tell you one thing, it's not gonna stop getting worse.  what's the rate it's already worsening at, collapsey?  This is apocalyptic.

Stupid polar cell is failing, we get it.  that's what the science all proved years ago.  Now there's new papers coming out of China in 2019 that I don't even want to read any more.  I've talked about this because it's to the point I'm thinking last hail mary moves to make.  I want to know more but it may have to wait

the risk of BAU is too much for me.  I might bug out a little early and catch some more conifer forests before they're gone.  I don't necessarily think fast collapse is in our DNA and it'll be much more like 2035 before human population peaks, but that's cynical and based on what we all do next

you be the judge
I am not a scientist

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1799
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 164
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #160 on: October 20, 2019, 09:12:24 AM »
I feel like there used to be one spinning top (the Polar Cell). Now we have multiple spinning tops. The switch from one spinning top to multiple spinning tops initially results in chaotic locations for the new vortices (tropospheric polar vortices, as distinguished from the traditional polar cell), but over time, as the old primary polar cell dwindles further and further (because it isn't entirely dead yet), the new cells are gaining much more continuity.

By the time the transition is complete, I wonder if we will have relatively stable multiple secondary vortices. In sync with no main polar cell at all. This would actually make quite a bit of sense if continental snowcover keeps increasing as sea ice heads towards 0.

If sea ice is under 1M KM^2 and there is something like 10-15M KM^2 of continental extent (or greater), and this is a scenario that is very possible in a very short order (relatively speaking -- like, maybe 10 years away, at most probably 15), the failure of the sea ice is going to put a wall of extreme +500MB anomalies across almost all of the Arctic Ocean. At that point we will have two (or more) vortices across North America / Greenland and Eurasia. Instead of the old weather we are used to, there will be relatively steady -500MB blobs focused in the continents, continually advecting cold blasts over the oceans, and ensuing oceanic heat up into the Arctic.

As long as Greenland is extant, we have at least one cold air source as potent as Antarctica remaining in the NHEM (although it is far smaller aerially). The higher the temps in the Arctic go, the more efficient the continental snow engine will become, and the more steady the pattern will also become, because Greenland is barely melting even with +1.5C of warming vs 100 years ago (or whatever we are at).

To date, in modern human history (and since 11,000 years ago), the annual snow engine has been idle enough to AVOID glacial expansion under the moribund equilibrium. Turning the Arctic Ocean ice-free will change that. When the land becomes the primary area of "cryospheric battery" for which the atmosphere gets more bang for its buck, I think it is possible we see primary annual ice-mass gain transfer from the ocean to the land, a process that is already underway. This eliminates the impact of warm Arctic waters on albedo, as well (from a net perspective, a la Daisyworld, and the system will indeed optimize for efficiency in this case as well)

The shifts in the atmosphere in recent years, as posted by Sark, illustrate this explicitly.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2019, 09:25:01 AM by bbr2314 »

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 581
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 183
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #161 on: October 20, 2019, 10:42:39 AM »
sark, I still do not understand what you are trying to point to, other than the possibility of runaway climate change in general but I do not think your charts support that

yes, there is arctic amplification, we all know that

yes, the quickly changing arctic is creating perturbations elsewhere, eg. the cooling of the Hudson/Great lake regions and Inner Asia during winter; more snow and rain in Siberia/Alaska/Greenland; a curvier jet stream, leading to usually a warmer Europe and Alaska during winter; cold outbreaks, mostly in N.America; PV splits, leading to changed wind patterns in NH midlatitudes.
These are all well known, yet it does not mean runaway climate change. If you have any ideas other than these (and the like) please be less cryptic and give us more solid, understandable explanations about the reasons and the consequences.

Eg to stay on topic: a warmer indian ocean has a strong teleconnection to warmer Bering waters,etc...

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1048
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 274
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #162 on: October 20, 2019, 10:52:11 AM »
Talking of the Indian ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole is off the chart at the moment, apparently by far the biggest positive value they've measured in 60 years.



Unusually strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event develops, powers severe droughts in Australia, and supports warmer October in Europe.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 581
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 183
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #163 on: October 20, 2019, 12:57:40 PM »
Talking of the Indian ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole is off the chart at the moment, apparently by far the biggest positive value they've measured in 60 years.
...Unusually strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event develops, powers severe droughts in Australia, and supports warmer October in Europe.[/url]


This is a nice one binntho, thanks! This one is definitely going to be the warmest October since at least 1900 in Central Europe!

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2360
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 284
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #164 on: October 20, 2019, 01:23:27 PM »
Quote
These are all well known, yet it does not mean runaway climate change.


None of this is well known. This is all new and it's consequences unknown by anyone in the world. This is all currently subject to intense scientific scrutiny. Yet you are pretending this is all "well known" because you can't handle the truth. There is nothing logical scientific in that statement. Only pure fear psychology pleading for comfortable lies.

Please stop trolling sark, he is doing important stream of consciousness work on a phenomenon that will likely change all of our lives.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1048
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 274
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #165 on: October 20, 2019, 01:53:08 PM »
Please stop trolling sark, he is doing important stream of consciousness work on a phenomenon that will likely change all of our lives.

If you read Sark's postings as a neo-post-apocalyptic poetry, then they are fine. Perhaps they should have their own "arctic literature" thread.

Try to get any relatable information whatsoever out of them is hopeless. El Cid was just posting what perhaps a lot of us are thinking.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2360
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 284
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #166 on: October 20, 2019, 02:52:34 PM »
I read sark as a person exploring a phenomenom he doesn't fully understand, but he is trying to. I believe he posts here with the hope of acquiring insight from other posters and at the same time informing us of the changes. The vagueness is a function of his unknowledge. Exploratory science at its best.

But instead of receiving input from those who claim this is "well known", he gets pointless criticism and calls to shut up. Peer pressure.

And on the apocalyptic calls, apocalypse is the expected outcome of these changes, once you remove the illusion of human permanence. They are just barely beginning and they are being felt across the hemisphere, almost directly. It is not going to get better. Sark is right on point on that too. Scary, sure, but said any other way is lying.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1048
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 274
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #167 on: October 20, 2019, 03:10:09 PM »
The human tendency to constantly expect an apocalypse of one sort of another is a very common delusion. This thread isn't about that. Sark's postings are on-topic but his skills as a communicator seem to be very small. When people express their frustration over the fact that he seems to be trying to say something very important, but totally failing to explain what it is, then they are suddenly trolling a "flow of consciousness" artist?

Please ...
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2360
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 284
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #168 on: October 20, 2019, 03:51:41 PM »
Then you go ahead and explain the changes in the atmosphere and it's connections to the rest of the climate in near real time, with supporting images.  If this is such a simple and "well known" topic help sark, don't hinder him, much less shame him into silence.

But of course this isn't either well known or simple, and the possibility of apocalypse is so real that some people can't talk about it or bear the mention of it. So I'm not expecting any contribution.

I'm done interrupting this thread.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3960
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 416
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #169 on: October 20, 2019, 04:55:04 PM »
Thank you all for not just laughing at me.  Although it is kind of funny.  What I have posted on this thread is truly thrown together by a completely unqualified researcher in full batshit mode.  There will be a more thorough and thoughtful write up, in time.



I think this is a hugely important topic...very complex and if it could be truly understood we would understand the world of hurt coming our way as this goes to the very heart of climate change. Very happy you created this thread. I visit often but have little to contribute as it is too complex for me.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3960
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 416
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #170 on: October 20, 2019, 05:01:49 PM »
Now there's new papers coming out of China in 2019 that I don't even want to read any more. 

This is where you attach links to papers if you want this thread to be useful.

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #171 on: October 20, 2019, 05:49:01 PM »
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-019-00663-y

Long‑term variations of atmospheric angular momentum and torque

I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #172 on: October 20, 2019, 05:58:26 PM »
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1175/JAS3823.1

Angular Momentum Conservation and Gravity Wave Drag Parameterization: Implications for Climate Models

The importance of gravity waves in determining the large-scale structure of the middle atmosphere is well established (Fritts and Alexander 2003). Gravity waves transport angular momentum from their source regions in the troposphere and exert a torque where they dissipate in the middle atmosphere. The angular momentum transfer due to small-scale gravity waves [gravity wave drag (GWD)] is not explicitly resolved and thus must be parameterized in general circulation models (GCMs); not parameterizing this process leads to unacceptable climate biases such as the cold pole problem
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #173 on: October 20, 2019, 09:04:57 PM »
I don't disagree with anything you are all saying except the bit about "shame" or "peer pressure" ... because LOL

no one is in danger of shutting me up

I have a timing belt job to do today or I would be writing this down from start to finish.  I work 55 hrs a week or there would be more time to put this down in coherent language.  As it is, I spend every waking moment outside of work going through what I've gleaned from 20 years of watching the planet's weather system contorting, in order to understand what is happening to our weather, what is wrong with the system, and therefore how it will look in the near future.

I am completely untrained and non-academic and these thoughts & opinions are formed out of casual observation of 20 years.  During the past year it has become a closely watched obsession because of the 500 millibar charts of the Northern Hemisphere (polar stereographic).  Watching the charts in motion during the past year has revealed something that is new and as yet unassessed by any science I can find...

Instead of a central polar cold basin in the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, the system is being stretched out to TWO main poles of cold, one centered over the Kara Sea and the other Hudson Bay.  These two poles of cold are extremely evident in weather forecasts, reanalysis, and climate studies which model the impact of thin sea ice.

Zonal winds on planet Earth are Westerly, yes?  In fact, if you were floating in geostationary orbit, the Earth's rotation would be Westerly.  Headed toward the East.  So, the atmosphere is flinging forward of the rotation of the Earth.  From East to West. 

Jets form up where this spiraling North pattern of zonal wind folds over itself.  A rough illustration of a northward westerly spiral on a globe is offered in image 2

The climate system of the Earth is a twist on a globe.  It's also possible to think of it as a *whistle* but that's going to be a tough sell I think

So what have we all been seeing for 20-30 years in macro weather on Earth?  Jet stream ridges and troughs amplified.  Arctic Amplification.  The central theory behind why jet stream waviness is increasing is that the atmospheric heights over the Arctic are rising.  There is a decreased slope from Tropics to Pole in the atmospheric height.

When this effect becomes as extreme as we have seen in the past 3-5 years, the two main poles of cold emerge in all of the charts.  Now you get vorticity axes pulled out of the central Arctic and pinwheeling around TWO locations.  Grinding gears.  Two low pressure centers of atmosphere in close proximity.  What happens where they grind?  Well, you create two HIGH pressure centers at a 90 degree angle.  Thus, the quadrupole.  Not a dipole, a quadrupole.  Dynamically, the two low pressure centers are cast apart while the high pressure centers wheel in to the center.  From both sides of the Earth simultaneously, "blobs" or anticyclones breaking *through* the jet stream to reach the Arctic basin in chronic and repeated fashion.

Ok, well blocks and blobs and jet stream ridges have been with us forever, right?  What's the difference?  it's the *dynamics* now.  The fluid is churning.  Imagine a bathtub drain vortex.  As the water level decreases, the vortex begins to distort as the influence of waves generated in the fluid impact the rotation.  Well what would you expect if there are two drain holes down there instead of one?  A mighty slurp!  It will slow down the vortex through the effect of small amplitude, high frequency waves.

What happens eventually is the rotation of the body of water slows down and the water simply proceeds straight into the center without circling the drain.  Tropics to pole direct.

Right now we're in this chaos transition from a spiraling northward climate system to one more similar to an equable climate system.

It's been circling the drain forever.  Now the heights are such that the drain is slurping.  As a result, the circling slows.

As a wave guide, the geopotential height over the Arctic used to be more of an oval.  Now it is a figure of 8.  This is a catastrophic breakdown in the dynamical process that creates weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere.  We've been watching it happen for 20 years.

Atmospheric Angular Momentum is SLOWING

Every single climate model is tested to ensure that Atmospheric Angular Momentum is CONSERVED so that it does NOT run away.

IN THE REAL WORLD IT IS RUNNING AWAY

I mean look around... Does anyone think things will stop getting worse?

This is a feedback that is not assessed.  Prove me wrong, please!
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #174 on: October 20, 2019, 10:19:13 PM »
To date, in modern human history (and since 11,000 years ago), the annual snow engine has been idle enough to AVOID glacial expansion under the moribund equilibrium. Turning the Arctic Ocean ice-free will change that. When the land becomes the primary area of "cryospheric battery" for which the atmosphere gets more bang for its buck, I think it is possible we see primary annual ice-mass gain transfer from the ocean to the land, a process that is already underway. This eliminates the impact of warm Arctic waters on albedo, as well (from a net perspective, a la Daisyworld, and the system will indeed optimize for efficiency in this case as well)

I don't disagree with the overall picture expressed in this post, but I'm not sure there's enough time for a meaningful glacial expansion.  The Younger Dryas example is very interesting, but crucially, this occurred at a time when global temps were lower.  Now we are on this trajectory headed higher than even the conditions of the Eemian.

There will certainly be extremes of snow extending further out of the NHEM winter season.  I tend to think of it as the system fighting back, a negative feedback to global warming.  This is a system at the breaking point.  The incredible stability of the past 10,000 years of weather gives some indication that it is hard to break.  This also suggests that once broken, it will be very hard to get back.
I am not a scientist

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 581
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 183
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #175 on: October 20, 2019, 11:30:29 PM »
all right sark, this is much better I now understand more what you think of (and that is all i wanted regardless of what others might have implied)!

So, we have two poles of cold instead of one. That is evidently happening, no argument there. However, your poles of cold are NOT low pressure centers, but highs (like the Siberian high). You will have one HP center in Siberia and one in the Hudson/CAA/Greenland region. And you have two low pressure centers in Bering/Alaska and Barents. In my view as we lose arctic ice only one of those remains, an elongated one all over the Arctic Sea (i attach a very poor drawing of what i think of - sry for the quality).
Now, the question is, what sort of changes would this setup mean for NH midlatitudes????

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1437
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 183
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #176 on: October 21, 2019, 12:23:31 AM »
...You will have one HP center in Siberia and one in the Hudson/CAA/Greenland region. And you have two low pressure centers in Bering/Alaska and Barents. In my view as we lose arctic ice only one of those remains, an elongated one all over the Arctic Sea (i attach a very poor drawing of what i think of - sry for the quality).
Now, the question is, what sort of changes would this setup mean for NH midlatitudes????

Interesting idea.  Persistent winter low over the arctic ocean would have fairly powerful effects in retarding emission of heat to space in the long polar night.  This might be how it is that alligators used to live on Ellesmere island.  Winter clouds along with summer sun would tend to store huge amounts of heat in the upper levels of the arctic ocean.

HapHazard

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 161
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 61
  • Likes Given: 1025
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #177 on: October 21, 2019, 01:34:23 AM »
all right sark, this is much better I now understand more what you think of (and that is all i wanted regardless of what others might have implied)!

Exactly what I was looking for, as well. Thanks for sharing, sark, and keep it up!  :)

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #178 on: October 21, 2019, 01:54:29 AM »
the Siberian high is a winter sea level pressure phenomena whereas the focus on structure & dynamics of the polar cell is better spent above about 850hPa
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #179 on: October 21, 2019, 02:16:06 AM »
I will re-post this gif which is historical and not prediction.  I took all the hour 0's from GFS and put them together to animate the polar cell at 500 millibar height across the beginning of May, 2019

This is the whole issue to me right here.  This keeps happening.  The anomaly shown above has grown to the point that the entire polar cell splits in half and there are at least a dozen examples in the past year. 

The polar cell is trying to rip in half in order to circulate about the two cold poles.  Of course it splashes right back in to the center, but then you find it setting right back up again.
I am not a scientist

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1799
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 164
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #180 on: October 21, 2019, 02:38:00 AM »
To date, in modern human history (and since 11,000 years ago), the annual snow engine has been idle enough to AVOID glacial expansion under the moribund equilibrium. Turning the Arctic Ocean ice-free will change that. When the land becomes the primary area of "cryospheric battery" for which the atmosphere gets more bang for its buck, I think it is possible we see primary annual ice-mass gain transfer from the ocean to the land, a process that is already underway. This eliminates the impact of warm Arctic waters on albedo, as well (from a net perspective, a la Daisyworld, and the system will indeed optimize for efficiency in this case as well)

I don't disagree with the overall picture expressed in this post, but I'm not sure there's enough time for a meaningful glacial expansion.  The Younger Dryas example is very interesting, but crucially, this occurred at a time when global temps were lower.  Now we are on this trajectory headed higher than even the conditions of the Eemian.

There will certainly be extremes of snow extending further out of the NHEM winter season.  I tend to think of it as the system fighting back, a negative feedback to global warming.  This is a system at the breaking point.  The incredible stability of the past 10,000 years of weather gives some indication that it is hard to break.  This also suggests that once broken, it will be very hard to get back.
I think the problem is that as the state-shift occurs the dual vortices are going to get much stronger. Winter is going to start earlier and last later for certain regions.

But what happens when we hit BOE and the re-icing is minimal? Like, 1M KM^2 minimum, on October 1st, with only 3-4M KM^2 in extent by New Years? At that point volume is going to barely recover.

But you know what will be taking up the slack? The snowfall on the continents. In fact the warmer the Arctic gets while Greenland is extant, the more snow will fall. We have melted .1% of Greenland since 2000. .1%!!!! In 20 years!!!! We are not getting to 10% let alone 5%, IMO.

The yearly anomalies for 2019 are going to be the most extreme since the 1970s or earlier across the United States. Parts of the Dakotas and Montana are going to finish -3/-4C for the YEAR. ! The highest maximums on the positive side are now substantially less relatively impressive than the colder minimums on the negative side. And that is with only .1% of Greenland gone!

What is going to happen next? The continental snowfall increase is going to start worsening exponentially as more and more open water persists each year. We are going to hit an annual max of 5,000 KM^3, then 6,000, then 7,000, then 10,000KM^3.

Around that point the annual cryospheric mass balance will probably shift to snow versus sea ice and we will see the first year with snow persisting in the higher elevations of North America through summer. That same summer could very well be the BOE up north. From that point the residual snowpack across the continents has an expanded baseline to grow on during summertime, through solstice, and it begins increasing exponentially in depth and water content. By the third or fourth year as the snows have spread, May, June, July, and August become the prime time for snowfall accumulation in the glacial zone, with the contrast between the GHG-enhanced oceanic warming and the albedo-cooled continental interior sufficient to result in quasi-permanent mega-storms in the flux regions of the -500MB vortices over Hudson Bay and the Kara (this is how Hansen's mega-storms occurred).

I think it is important to note that while each autumn will revert to the dual-vortex state mentioned by sark, without the sea ice, momentum is (IMO) on North America's side by springtime due to its positioning near Greenland, especially as sea ice dwindles further near Eurasia. If Hudson Bay becomes a bastion of MYI, which it will if snow begins building across North America's higher elevations, the Kara vortex will collapse by April or May as Eurasia is overwhelmed by the raw impact of continental heatwaves (since CO2 is still 420ppm or at that point, 435ppm or whatever).

The North American vortex will persist through the summer until a new Eurasian vortex again appears in the fall. So Eurasia becomes the focus of massive summertime heatwaves and an extension of major positive height anomalies while the opposite occurs in North America (much of Eurasia will eventually follow into perpetual winter as the NAmerican pack expands dramatically each year but it will take some time since concurrent with North America's cooling, there is a decent chance that through all of this the Arctic Ocean will STILL BE WARMING).

The coupling of the vortex, snowfall, sea ice, and residual ice sheet (Greenland) is likely to result in a much earlier "winter" for North America than Eurasia, and this event sequence is also confirmed by the staggering of the arrival of previous cold periods per geological records (it generally goes North America -> NW Europe -> Eurasia -> East Asia). So while the two vortices we are seeing form are quite interesting, I think the North American vortex is the more anomalous, and will eventually become more dominant on an inter-annual basis, at least for a few decades.

philopek

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 440
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 157
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #181 on: October 21, 2019, 03:39:35 AM »
As usual there is too much talk about persons instead of practical no-nonsense.

Due to never ending rivalry and group (herd) dynamics people have obviously trouble to discuss differing points of few without getting to offense and defense patterns.

One guy makes an esoteric statement based on good expertise, someone else starts to question a few extreme terms based on realistic views and the always present gooders found another reason to play their role as good hearted defenders of the poor.

Result, everything useful on the topic has been suppressed and the bickering goes on for pages to come.

We all know that @sark knows what he's talking about while my thought was what he threw in before posting, 2 whiskies or 2 joints.

This is not offending, it's just that the terminology needed to get used to and it's totally legit to tone down to a more factual level without disregarding the good intention and the valuable core of the content.

It's those who think they're entitled to fall into defense mode and defend themselves and everyone does not receive pure acclamation. It's basically the root of leftism that is well meant but will never work because we cannot afford to push the weak up and pull the strong down.

aperson

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 172
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 76
  • Likes Given: 115
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #182 on: October 21, 2019, 03:58:50 AM »
My naive impression is that we're seeing the beginning of an equable climate forming in the night time tropospheric polar vortex. In general, the shapes sark is showing look like patterns composed of spherical harmonics that are moving from a lower energy state to a higher state. These higher energy states seem to be stable as they increase meridional heat transport and form stable blocking patterns. In essence, once you break out of the lowest level harmonic (a single large tropospheric vortex), you get self reinforcing patterns that let air in and out of the Arctic (configurations with 4, 6, 8, etc... quasi-symmetric nodes).

Of course, this is all conjecture from me as well since I'm not a researcher in this field. But these patterns have jumped out to me as a casual weather watcher as well.

Edit: Maybe Chladni plates provide another example of what these cross-sections look like as they move from lower to higher energy states (in this case, lower hz to higher hz):
computer janitor by trade

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #183 on: October 21, 2019, 05:07:13 AM »
One guy makes an esoteric statement based on good expertise, someone else starts to question a few extreme terms based on realistic views and the always present gooders found another reason to play their role as good hearted defenders of the poor.

I take your points and enjoyed reading that, but don't really see it on this thread. 

And yes, in order to give voice to the unthinkable it has been necessary to dive deeply, and this state of mind is useful to gain insights into the real world.  I've been at this for over a year and the topic is starting to gain traction with serious meteorologists and researchers, so relief is at hand.

Soon it will be satisfied and no more such travel will be necessary.

I can't take any insult or credit, unfortunately.  Neither finds purchase.  I'm ok, you're ok.

Thank you for thoughts.
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #184 on: October 21, 2019, 10:27:47 AM »
This short video series by the Met Office talking all about global circulation is actually some of the best work I've seen actually illustrating the topic



I know I saw the name of the 3d polar vortex modeling, that I first saw from Andrej Flis.  Somewhere there is a paper about winter PV splits where the method used to draw a 3d polar vortex in software.  this is my favorite one, a classic SSW wave that actually arises as a rossby wave.  when the wave spirals up toward the Arctic,  it for some reason just proceeds to climb all the way up the polar vortex and destroy it

all the air that used to be a strong winter PV just drops.  the polar vortex starts all over again.  but it's the dead of winter so it'll spin right back up. 

But when that happened on May Day of 2019, it finished the winter PV off right then and there.  but instead of a peaceful fade of the westerly winds of the 10-6hPa polar vortex, there was a 2nd SSW last winter

and there was no correcting influence all spring & summer long



I'm happy the PV is back but... it will do all the displacement & wave climbing & splitting things.  $45 on there being a SSW this winter.  It would be exciting to not see Arctic Outbreak across Eastern Montana, Both Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New England etc.   right?

Last year there was a PV split.  I can't find a climatology on the 2014-present PV splits.  Was it all of them?

Look, it's already doing the thing

:D
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #185 on: October 21, 2019, 10:53:52 AM »
10hPa Wind on Nullschool.  The true "polar vortex" is the area surrounded by the rather strong, still forming Winter Night Jet, which surrounds the stratospheric polar vortex.  when this wind system experiences a sudden stratospheric warming its circulation gets polluted by a tropospheric wave. and only some waves, not all of them

with the above image depicting the first disruption of the still forming PV still in October.  Jesus Christ.  winter is coming early to a lot of places.  kind of a classic bad feedback.  thrown afield and absurdly wavy polar cell reaching out, dumping snow... warm arctic, cold continents.  so true.  so if the geopotential height is actually deeper at places outside of the CAB than it is above it, it has to split.

and what you'll see is the system oscillating in and out.  the AO index is probably ripe

I think we're seeing prediction factor indicators lead healthily out of the weird low, and the timing of a second SSW at Final Warming in 2020 would be absolutely bonkers.  2 in a row?  I think it will get better before it gets worse, but still

$45 on 2nd SSW at Final Warming in 2020
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #186 on: October 21, 2019, 10:56:09 AM »
aperson I think you're right about the tropospheric PV system in winter

I found it at 1000mb Potential Temperature.  Now, i'm not certain that means geopotential.  I think it means something else.  But, it's there

I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #187 on: October 21, 2019, 11:14:19 AM »
November & December 2018

I bet every time it does this bad things happen down the road
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #188 on: October 21, 2019, 11:34:02 AM »
So all this came around eventually to what does it look like now?

Oct 11-18 1000 millibar air temperature, whatever that means, +/- 25C from the freezing point (you have to convert from K for dailies)

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

1000mb is like 364 feet altitude standard height.  Our breath is in it
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #189 on: October 21, 2019, 12:13:11 PM »
Quick prediction easy to make:  atmospheric blocking reaching the North Pole..   Sept 30, Oct 8, Oct 17, Oct 25th.

A ridge in the jet stream will form and dive right onto the Arctic to reach the North Pole on those dates.

This covers Oct 17, and that little low stayed put

3 out of 4 tho
I am not a scientist

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2360
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 284
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #190 on: October 21, 2019, 01:57:00 PM »
This short video series by the Met Office talking all about global circulation is actually some of the best work I've seen actually illustrating the topic


Thanks for that video, from 4:03-4:28 explains what I believe to be the root problem. The polar front exists because the ice exists. Without ice then the temperature at the surface is warmer, removing the "force" created by the difference in temperatures/humidity.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #191 on: October 22, 2019, 04:47:30 AM »
posting a wide image.  it is the product at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml

because the "event" of summer 2019 goes clear back to May 1,  it is necessary to bolt two of these together

What you're seeing is a diagram of atmospheric height anomalies in the entire column of atmosphere in the Arctic.  This is a slowing

and folks, I'm not sure what is the seasonality of the Atmospheric Angular Momentum or Global Wind Speed calculation.  I know nothing about AAM. 

so here is a comparison of Arctic atmosphere average heights to AAM.

it'd be nice to build a polar cell map wall

*edit: almost gave myself a heart attack so I drew a box to illustrate the line up of the two, so the features don't look too similar
« Last Edit: October 22, 2019, 05:14:13 AM by sark »
I am not a scientist

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1799
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 164
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #192 on: October 22, 2019, 08:47:34 AM »
Textbook!


uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1540
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 747
  • Likes Given: 156
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #193 on: October 22, 2019, 11:55:11 AM »
Quick prediction easy to make:  atmospheric blocking reaching the North Pole..   Sept 30, Oct 8, Oct 17, Oct 25th.
A ridge in the jet stream will form and dive right onto the Arctic to reach the North Pole on those dates.
This covers Oct 17, and that little low stayed put
3 out of 4 tho
Thanks for following up on those predictions sark

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #194 on: October 23, 2019, 04:06:07 AM »
Thanks for following up on those predictions sark

Absolutely.  When *my* predictions fall apart, it's a GOOD thing.  Love to be wrong about the central import of this, being "next year will be worse for food production".

The abrupt part is already established.  There is probably a department of a University or two titled something along the lines of "Abrupt Climate Change".  Plenty of orthodoxy science has expressed that.

Runaway probably requires a little more definition, in my view.  Runaway moist greenhouse is the thing that happened to Venus.  I don't think that.

Runaway to me means self-accelerating.  I do think we're there already.
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #195 on: October 23, 2019, 05:29:22 AM »
this link will only be active for a couple of days.  Press > press +++++

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2019102218&fh=132

Wow.

GFS gets it.  GFS shows us having 2 polar cells.  500 millibars.  This is completely realistic forecast, although it will not be as symmetrical or ugly as that.  but it looks bad at hour 0 just the same.  sure as hell looks like the worst winter PV state ever at 10hPa

It's been doing this for over a year.  It's been nearly 6 months since it convincingly held together in the middle for a period of time longer than 2 days.  It's coming back from the extreme negative northern annular mode where anticyclones were frozen in and traversing the North Pole with a period of 4 days recurring, and the stratospheric polar vortex is why it will improve to splitting every 8-16 days through Autumn.  As it descends & strengthens in the long polar night, it will create a very strong barrier against warm air.  and then the deep -AO events will stop.  Probably we will just return to super strong blocking as the overall situation improves for our dear Polar Cell

but the still forming polar vortex (not pictured) is already being hit by waves.  Jesus Christ

So it will hold together in winter but will be a marked increase in record setting stratospheric measurements like earliest winter PV displacement/split

I thought this was a joke back in February.  I said the polar cell is FAILING.  I still stand by that.  It's split from surface to tropopause and the tropopause is rising and splitting

Why I think it's runaway is because we have 2 polar cells.  That does not look good.  that could lead to a very rapid increase in places like Wyoming to become like South Texas.  No freezing temps year round.  Permafrost activating, I won't write the rest of the litany

if you're coming to it from reading paleoclimatology and seeing the Greenland ice core data, you might like the idea of 3-5 years before like SHTF truly with regard to climate.  Honestly I think it's worst case scenario and WCS is a threat.  Think of the fucking forcing at play right now

Climate Strikes are making it worse faster if we're losing dimming...

Turn something off!

and because we haven't approached this problem squarely yet.  we already have this catastrophic weather.  Corn is easily taking a -20% hit this year because of extreme weather.  Come on.  Cruelly satisfactory to "what collapse would look like" that a trade war among the powers over US Ag has perfectly played the farmers.  Plant lots of corn, now make due with $3 corn.  Corn is in serious danger from severe weather.  Hope you like sand in your tortilla chips IMHO

use Twitter somehow and go look up #Harvest19 and you'll see it

#Plant19 was scary.  #Harvest19 is scary.

https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf

#9 28-Nov-68 earliest SSW in ERA-40 and the NCEP-NCAR I has one at 30-Nov-58

I think I'm losing the bet on QBO reversal.  That would be more like the moist greenhouse if that happens this year IMHO so I'm -$45

$45 on earliest SSW
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #196 on: October 23, 2019, 07:53:32 AM »
Textbook!


There are big differences between ECMWF & GFS right now even though they're pulling closer together in the 18Z and 00Z Wednesday.  Inside of 100 hours.  Predictability seems *very* low, although once GFS hit into the cut off low over the US and caught up with the Euro, it established the same 360+ decameter height anomaly in the region of Alaska, 7 days later, Greenland, and 8 days after that voila an hour 360 blocking.  This is one amazing hobby lately...

At the end of summer there I think we saw a complete failure of the polar cell.  The height anomalies softened and broadened as there was no more resistance.  The chart red won.  Time spent in that mode at the end of summers will probably be when the worst damages are done.  There was no more 2 polar cells, there was just an annular ring of storms

Now we're back to having 2 polar cells, and it'll fill in more & more until there is a split and/or fall of the winter polar vortex.

I have a feeling the very beautiful and stable 2 twin daughter vortex PV splits of winters past are behind us and they will be more & more messy looking

check out the vorticity motion around this date, eyes on the north pole

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=DTpres&runtime=2019102300&fh=318
I am not a scientist

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 581
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 183
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #197 on: October 23, 2019, 10:05:40 AM »
....  we already have this catastrophic weather.  Corn is easily taking a -20% hit this year because of extreme weather.  Come on. 

Corn is NOT taking a 20% hit.

See:

https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/14497-us-lowers-2019-corn-soybean-production-forecasts

Corn production is forecast 4.3% lower than 2018, and ABOVE the average of the 2010s. So much for arcticapocalypticpoetry

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #198 on: October 23, 2019, 10:57:54 AM »
13.8 million bushels huh.  I'd recommend paying more attention to Ag, my friends.  You know both Dakotas hard froze on the 10th, right?  Was 30% of it mature?

https://twitter.com/kannbwx/status/1181306746683428864

You are constantly given opportunities to see these things for yourself, instead of complaining about my prose, do something helpful?

I found an interesting graphic to illustrate what happens with two co-rotating vortices:

I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
« Reply #199 on: October 23, 2019, 11:13:26 AM »
Freezes ended the 2019 growing season across much of the western Corn Belt. Impacts on crop yields have not yet been fully assessed. U.S. corn & soybean development in other regions continues at record-slow pace.

https://twitter.com/usda_oce/status/1184823930688888832

I am not a scientist