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Tom_Mazanec

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Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: May 22, 2019, 01:05:53 AM »
I used to think PO would save the Earth's climate.
Now I'm not so sure.
Here is Greenpeace's take:
https://www.greenpeace.org/international/story/20026/will-peak-oil-save-earths-climate/
What's yours?
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Neven

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2019, 10:20:46 AM »
I also had high hopes for PO, but alas, I underestimated human ingenuity insanity.  ;)
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2019, 06:54:31 PM »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2019, 08:00:39 PM »
Shale Oil Companies taking a beating:
https://srsroccoreport.com/sea-of-red-majority-of-u-s-shale-companies-took-a-beating-q1-2019/
The business model was to borrow 100% of the capital required. Any surplus cash paid out as share buybacks dividends management payouts etc. If oil price stays up or increases and borrowing costs stay stable or decrease the game can continue until....

The break-even price quoted is perfectly sensible if the business is properly capitalised with equity.

BUT.....  Greed and stupidity rule, OK?
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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2019, 10:03:25 PM »
I always thought that the irony of reducing energy use and switching to renewables as much as possible (on a personal level), is that demand for oil is reduced and thus the oil price goes down. In a way, mitigating climate change, delays peak oil, causing more climate change. Carbon fee-and-dividend would eliminate the irony, of course.
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2019, 12:25:58 AM »
To the peak of oil is still very far. In most major countries of the production oil is growing steadily:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/crude-oil-production
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/crude-oil-production
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/crude-oil-production
https://tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/crude-oil-production
https://tradingeconomics.com/iraq/crude-oil-production
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-arab-emirates/crude-oil-production
https://tradingeconomics.com/kazakhstan/crude-oil-production
https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/crude-oil-production

In total, these eight countries account for 61% of global oil production.

In other major countries (Venezuela, Iran and Libya), production is constrained either by sanctions or by political instability.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves
These three countries alone account for 30% of the world's oil reserves.

Every year the reserves of technically recoverable oil grow:


ArcticMelt2

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2019, 12:31:30 AM »
Even further peak depletion of natural gas and coal. Human civilization is going into the abyss of greenhouse disaster.

https://blankspaceproject.com/fairy-tales-2019-winners/

Quote
Second Prize goes to Nick Stath, for his story “Monuments of the Past” Nick is a concept artist, designer and illustrator based in Melbourne, Australia. Upon receiving his Masters in architecture from RMIT University, he has pursued working simultaneously as a designer in both Architectural Practice and the Entertainment Industry. His passion lies in creating visual stories of science-fiction that depict the relationship between the built and natural environment. His work is the continuous exploration of  space, scale, composition and atmosphere, intending to evoke emotion that allows the viewers’ imagination to traverse.

“My story was inspired by climate change and how we currently take the beauty of our planet for granted. My desire was to represent this issue through a story that makes us wonder what life could be like in a future where mother nature and her resources have diminished before our eyes. A world where parents have to tell their children stories of what forests, mountains and grass fields where once like. My vision for this future environment was a series of over-scaled structures that hoist man made landscapes into the sky. These structures represent the monuments of our past.”


Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2019, 04:08:45 AM »
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2019, 03:05:10 PM »
Gail Tverberg on Peak Oil and Climate Change:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/04/30/the-climate-change-story-is-half-true/#more-43718

Very nice.  The conclusion, for those who do not wish to read the report in its entirety:

The climate story we hear tends to give the impression that climate change is a huge problem compared to all the other resource and environmental problems we are encountering. Furthermore, a person gets the impression that simple solutions, such as wind, solar, carbon taxes and voluntary cutbacks in fossil fuel use, are available.

This is a false picture of the situation at hand. Climate change is one of many problems the world economy is facing, and the solutions we have for climate change at this time are totally inadequate. Because an increase in energy consumption is required for GDP growth worldwide, even voluntary cutbacks in fossil fuel usage tend to harm the economies making the reductions. If climate change is to be addressed, totally different approaches are needed. We may even need to talk about adapting to climate change that is largely out of our ability to control.

The benefits of wind and solar have been greatly exaggerated. Partly, this may be because politicians have needed a solution to the energy and climate problems. It may also be partly because “renewable” sounds like it is a synonym for “sustainable,” even though it is not. Adding electricity storage looks like it would be a solution to the intermittency of wind and solar, but it tends to add costs and to defeat the CO2 benefit of these devices.

Finally, IPCC modelers need to develop their models more in the context of the wider range of limits that the world is facing. Perhaps it would be worthwhile to model the expected impact of all limits combined, rather than limiting the analysis to climate change. In particular, there is a need to consider the physics of how an economy really operates: Energy consumption cannot be reduced significantly at the world level without increasing the probability of collapse or a major war.

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2019, 03:36:17 PM »
Quote
cutbacks in fossil fuel usage tend to harm the economies making the reductions

Allow me a remark, Kat.

Germany's energy regulations require machines to be very efficient. This is one of the reasons German machinery is so popular all over the world and why we export this stuff so much.

Cutting down on energy use also means efficiency gains. Something you like to have as a customer of heavy machinery.

This example can be applied to many other products.

In recent years, energy consumption is going down in Germany even though we are growing. This is a direct effect of this regulation.

gerontocrat

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2019, 04:02:05 PM »
There is much to agree with in the analysis, and also some criticisms.
Quote
Because an increase in energy consumption is required for GDP growth worldwide, even voluntary cutbacks in fossil fuel usage tend to harm the economies making the reductions.
The point is to replace energy from fossil fuels with energy from renewables.
Quote
Adding electricity storage looks like it would be a solution to the intermittency of wind and solar, but it tends to add costs and to defeat the CO2 benefit of these devices.
Yes, battery storage adds cost but LNG and other partly used facilities to cover peak demand is also additional cost, and the cost of batteries is quickly declining while conventional generation costs are going up.

Battery storage does not defeat the CO2 benefits of renewable energy facilities. It adds to them by creating a place to store surplus energy acquired during low demand periods.
Quote
Finally, IPCC modelers need to develop their models more in the context of the wider range of limits that the world is facing. Perhaps it would be worthwhile to model the expected impact of all limits combined, rather than limiting the analysis to climate change.

I certainly agree with that. Environmental degradation is a product of many different dumb things humans are doing. I thought that was happening, i.e. reports on the state of the planet widened to cover many topics and more attempts to provide holistic (hate that word) solutions?

Quote
In particular, there is a need to consider the physics of how an economy really operates: Energy consumption cannot be reduced significantly at the world level without increasing the probability of collapse or a major war.

Who is talking about reducing energy consumption? Not enough people. Energy efficiency measures are shamefully neglected. Energy from the sun, (PV and wind) can provide vast quantities of additional energy above existing levels.

Finally, what is the writer getting at ? What is her solution ? That economic growth must be maintained at all costs? And how the hell can that be in a world of finite resources?


« Last Edit: May 29, 2019, 04:15:40 PM by gerontocrat »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2019, 06:17:49 PM »
Further to what Gerontocrat wrote …

I skimmed her transcript and read those conclusions.  I felt her tone was a little off-putting and maybe prudish.  For example:
Quote
The climate story we hear tends to give the impression that climate change is a huge problem compared to all the other resource and environmental problems we are encountering. Furthermore, a person gets the impression that simple solutions, such as wind, solar, carbon taxes and voluntary cutbacks in fossil fuel use, are available.

This is a false picture of the situation at hand. Climate change is one of many problems the world economy is facing, and the solutions we have for climate change at this time are totally inadequate.
She thinks that AGW is not a huge (the biggest) problem.  Well, it is.  Period.  She's flat wrong in her assessment!

She is right that the listed "simple solutions" are not adequate.  As G. wrote just above, "Who is talking about reducing energy consumption? Not enough people."

She went on with
Quote
Because an increase in energy consumption is required for GDP growth worldwide, even voluntary cutbacks in fossil fuel usage tend to harm the economies making the reductions.
We in the West (and many other places) have to figure out how to 'thrive' with shrinking GDP - well OK, only if we want to survive!  I think she's right that we don't have a clue how to prevent anarchy with a sustained shrinking GDP.  We need other economic models to get us to a 'sustainable' future.  I get that her 'foundation' (economic understanding) has 'worked' for a (or two) hundred years - what she doesn't get is this economic understanding is killing us.

So, thanks, Tom, for sharing her talk.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #12 on: May 29, 2019, 07:04:12 PM »
Gail Tverberg on Peak Oil and Climate Change:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/04/30/the-climate-change-story-is-half-true/#more-43718

This author writes as if they are telling anyone something that is not already known. Growth in our economy tracks with energy consumption. Really! I did not know that.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2019, 07:14:57 PM »
The simple fact is that this growth system (capitalism) cannot grow indefinitely when it is constrained by a finite resource (the planet). The only solution is to devise a new way to organize human civilization. Given their finite nature, this absolutely requires a more equitable distribution of these resources.

We may even need to talk about adapting to climate change that is largely out of our ability to control.

 :o Words fail me but I will try to respond to this.

Please try to read up on what a 4C or 6C warmer world will look like. There is simply no adaptation possible and to suggest this is beyond belief.

http://climateye.org/compilation-4c-global-temperature-rise-plausible-by-2060s-or-sooner-catastrophic/

The latest IPCC report got it right. We need to be carbon neutral by 2050.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2019, 07:34:53 PM by Shared Humanity »

etienne

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2019, 09:54:07 PM »
People who believe that peak oil is far away don't look at the right graph. I found this one on the  aspo France website.

I don't care about the prediction, that is not my point. If you look at the production extraction side, you see that :
- without LTO (light tight oil or shale oil), production is flat since around 2005
- without  LTO and deep water, production is flat since 1995.
- between 1975 and 2000, offshore production has increased more that global production.

Extra heavy oil is not on the graph, don't know why, buy it is with LTO our only possibilities to keep production going up, but nobody knows for how long, but probably not for so much time because LTO has a very high depletion rate and extra-heavy doesn't allow very high production rates.

Few years ago, it was possible to hope that peak oil would solve the climate change issue, but that was before LTO, XH and deep water.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2019, 10:08:42 PM by etienne »

etienne

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #15 on: May 29, 2019, 10:05:55 PM »
Furthermore coal production has also increased a lot since 1990.
https://unstats.un.org/unsd/energy/yearbook/default.htm

The only good news is that coal production extraction is now going down, electricity is now more produced with shale gas and with renewables.

I don't know if shale gas is a good news, but renewable is.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #16 on: May 29, 2019, 11:10:59 PM »
It is not obvious that peak oil will occur anytime soon.

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #17 on: May 30, 2019, 03:15:22 AM »
It is quite obvious that peak human will occur in the next few decades, as a result of ignoring AGW, carrying capacity issues, and resource depletion.

Regarding peak oil, per the "Limits to Growth" approach, it's not about peak resource extraction per se, it's about the need to spend more and more resources on said resource extraction.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #18 on: May 30, 2019, 03:28:36 AM »
It is quite obvious that peak human will occur in the next few decades, as a result of ignoring AGW, carrying capacity issues, and resource depletion.

Regarding peak oil, per the "Limits to Growth" approach, it's not about peak resource extraction per se, it's about the need to spend more and more resources on said resource extraction.

Yes, as a former Peak Oiler, I well remember EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested).
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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #19 on: May 30, 2019, 04:05:37 AM »
etienne's graph above shows this nicely. Each type of oil is progressively harder to extract, and peaks at some point while a new type is introduced.

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #20 on: May 30, 2019, 07:14:36 AM »
It is not obvious that peak oil will occur anytime soon.
I don't know what "soon" means in this context.  I believe that it will occur for sure before the end if the century, but probably before 2050, and maybe during the next decade.  Too late for climate change, but soon enough for my personal comfort.
Do you really believe that governments invest in electric cars because of climate change?

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #21 on: May 30, 2019, 07:34:11 AM »
etienne's graph above shows this nicely. Each type of oil is progressively harder to extract, and peaks at some point while a new type is introduced.

Only, for fossil fuel, there is no room to get more expensive anymore. On the other hand, solar and wind are getting cheaper year by year. It's only a matter of time before other energy sources become so cheap, relative to oil and gas, it just can't compete anymore. This started to happen in 2016, and it's getting direr and direr for the fossil industry. If you have any shares, get rid of them now.

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #22 on: May 30, 2019, 07:47:27 AM »
Our footprint growth must stop. Full stop. Adding the four real messages of limits to growth, as presented by Jørgen Randers at the 50th Anniversary Summit of the Club of Rome on 17-18 October last year.

THE CLUB OF ROME CLIMATE EMERGENCY PLAN.
Out now, have at it:
http://www.clubofrome.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Climate_Emergency_Plan_Final.pdf
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #23 on: May 30, 2019, 01:41:02 PM »
Gail Tverberg on Peak Oil and Climate Change:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/04/30/the-climate-change-story-is-half-true/#more-43718

This author writes as if they are telling anyone something that is not already known. Growth in our economy tracks with energy consumption. Really! I did not know that.

I think it is somewhat of an over-simplification.  Much of the energy consumption can be tied to population growth.  Both start to skyrocket after 1920.  Energy efficiency (as mentioned by others) appears to have slowed the energy consumption compared to the population growth.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #24 on: June 04, 2019, 06:59:37 PM »
Video series on PO and AGW:


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etienne

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #25 on: June 06, 2019, 08:09:08 PM »
Sorry but I don't have the needed patience to listen to that BS. Peak oil is real, but it is not a collapse, just like climate change is not a collapse, it is a slow degradation of our living standards. Energy return on energy invested is going down and if you find that Tar sand are ok in Alberta just like conventional oil was in Pennsylvania, I'm sorry to tell you that you are wrong.  For a long time, there was no price increase but a lowering of the quality. I feel that now we have both together, higher prices and lower quality, that's an example of the impact of peak oil, the energy part gets more expensive, so costs can't stay the same, just like the worsening working conditions I feel in my everyday life.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 09:29:37 PM by etienne »

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #26 on: June 07, 2019, 04:17:34 PM »
New record for oil production in the United States.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

01/04    11,700
01/11    11,900
01/18    11,900
01/25    11,900             
02/01    11,900
02/08    11,900
02/15    12,000
02/22    12,100             
03/01    12,100
03/08    12,000
03/15    12,100
03/22    12,100
03/29    12,200   
04/05    12,200
04/12    12,100
04/19    12,200
04/26    12,300             
05/03    12,200
05/10    12,100
05/17    12,200
05/24    12,300
05/31    12,400

On average, a new record is set once a month.

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #27 on: June 07, 2019, 04:23:16 PM »
Natural gas also set a new record in the USA in March.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9070us2m.htm

2018-01 2,415,266
2018-02 2,221,695
2018-03 2,484,793
2018-04 2,413,092
2018-05 2,520,538
2018-06 2,453,118
2018-07 2,585,214
2018-08 2,640,147
2018-09 2,590,628
2018-10 2,702,825
2018-11 2,656,724
2018-12 2,756,314
2019-01 2,750,677
2019-02 2,500,719
2019-03 2,770,814   

etienne

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #28 on: June 07, 2019, 04:28:19 PM »
Records are easy to achieve in a growth context. The ultimate record will be the day before peak oil becomes real.

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #29 on: June 07, 2019, 04:31:09 PM »
Records are easy to achieve in a growth context. The ultimate record will be the day before peak oil becomes real.

For which year do you forecast peak global oil production?

Do you think humanity will have time to stop before the collapse of civilization, as in this film:


etienne

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #30 on: June 07, 2019, 04:34:23 PM »
You can always go further, the problem is that, excepted if you believe that the earth is flat, one day you will be back on your starting point, just going all the way forward.

etienne

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #31 on: June 07, 2019, 04:36:34 PM »
Records are easy to achieve in a growth context. The ultimate record will be the day before peak oil becomes real.

For which year do you forecast peak global oil production?

Do you think humanity will have time to stop before the collapse of civilization, as in this film:
I don't believe in collapse, I believe in constraints. I don't do predictions, too many people have failed before.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2019, 09:01:53 PM by etienne »

etienne

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #32 on: June 07, 2019, 04:51:03 PM »
Many people see oil as the blood of our civilization. I don't agree with that image, I see it more as its food, so I see peak oil as a diet.

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #33 on: June 07, 2019, 09:49:12 PM »
Many people see oil as the blood of our civilization. I don't agree with that image, I see it more as its food, so I see peak oil as a diet.
If oil is food it is pure sugar. Sure its got a lot of empty calories but what the body really needs is nutritious food like renewable energy.


or maybe
Energy is the blood of our civilization and oil is poisoned blood?

etienne

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #34 on: June 08, 2019, 08:57:11 AM »
Colapsology is a weird science. Maybe it is because things take more time to be created than to be destroyed and because of the way history is taught, we learn one single date for the collapse of Rome, the French or Russian revolution, the discovery of the American continents, the American independence... but these are all events that took many years, but when we look at it 500 years after, we feel that it happened quite fast.

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #35 on: June 08, 2019, 02:26:49 PM »
Colapsology is a weird science. Maybe it is because things take more time to be created than to be destroyed and because of the way history is taught, we learn one single date for the collapse of Rome, the French or Russian revolution, the discovery of the American continents, the American independence... but these are all events that took many years, but when we look at it 500 years after, we feel that it happened quite fast.

Why do you think climate catastrophe is impossible?

Didn't you hear about summer in the Arctic in 2007 and 2012, when records were suddenly improved by a million square kilometers? Or the fall of 2016, when the global ice area unexpectedly dropped at an by an unprecedentedly large amount in 40 years observations?

Are you sure that huge methane emissions from permafrost or the ocean floor are not starting tomorrow?

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #36 on: June 08, 2019, 03:06:02 PM »
The most unexpected was the disaster of 2007, when in just 2 summer months half of the multi-year ice was destroyed. The summer cyclones were so strong that the spring of 2008 was the only time when only one-year ice was observed at the North Pole.

Nothing foreshadowed such an event . So there are climatic disasters.

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #37 on: June 08, 2019, 04:06:19 PM »

Why do you think climate catastrophe is impossible?

Are you sure that huge methane emissions from permafrost or the ocean floor are not starting tomorrow?
I  am living in a climate catastrophe. Like jokes, it's just a question of timing.

Methane ppb in the atmosphere is increasing at a fast rate compared with history, but not at catastrophic rates yet. My guess is that the acceleration in methane ppb will continue to accelerate, as it will only take a few months for increased emissions from permafrost and e.g. the ESAS to show in the NASA? NOAA? sensors. Again,  it's just a question of timing.
___________________________________________________________
Off-topic, but what the hell.

Going, Going               Philip Larkin, January 1972

I thought it would last my time—
The sense that, beyond the town,
There would always be fields and farms,
Where the village louts could climb
Such trees as were not cut down;
I knew there’d be false alarms
 
In the papers about old streets
And split level shopping, but some
Have always been left so far;
And when the old part retreats
As the bleak high-risers come
We can always escape in the car.
 
Things are tougher than we are, just
As earth will always respond
However we mess it about;
Chuck filth in the sea, if you must:
The tides will be clean beyond.
—But what do I feel now? Doubt?
 
Or age, simply? The crowd
Is young in the M1 cafe;
Their kids are screaming for more—
More houses, more parking allowed,
More caravan sites, more pay.
On the Business Page, a score
 
Of spectacled grins approve
Some takeover bid that entails
Five per cent profit (and ten
Per cent more in the estuaries): move
Your works to the unspoilt dales
(Grey area grants)! And when
 
You try to get near the sea
In summer . . .
       It seems, just now,
To be happening so very fast;
Despite all the land left free
For the first time I feel somehow
That it isn’t going to last,
 
That before I snuff it, the whole
Boiling will be bricked in
Except for the tourist parts—
First slum of Europe: a role
It won’t be hard to win,
With a cast of crooks and tarts.
 
And that will be England gone,
The shadows, the meadows, the lanes,
The guildhalls, the carved choirs.
There’ll be books; it will linger on
In galleries; but all that remains
For us will be concrete and tyres.
 
Most things are never meant.
This won’t be, most likely; but greeds
And garbage are too thick-strewn
To be swept up now, or invent
Excuses that make them all needs.
I just think it will happen, soon.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

etienne

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #38 on: June 08, 2019, 06:16:37 PM »
Why do you think climate catastrophe is impossible?
We are in a catastrophic situation, with extinction of many species, with sea level that is below what it should be with the actual CO2 concentration, but it not a collapse, it is one storm after another, refugees leaving less viable places... But still not enough for everybody to acknowledge climate change. It will get worse, but I don't believe in a collapse. Just like when you are sick and have 3 years to go, it's a slow way down, it's not that you can dance until you fall dead.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #39 on: June 08, 2019, 06:24:37 PM »
Agreed. We will not have a 1000 C warmup in one second and everybody dies of SHC. But in a historical framework it is going to be fast.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

oren

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #40 on: June 09, 2019, 12:06:18 AM »
The problem is of course not the climate, the resources and the finite planet, all of which take decades to play out, but the humans who react in violence when some threshold is crossed, thus triggering a fast collapse over a few years.

josh-j

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #41 on: June 14, 2019, 11:47:08 PM »
The problem is of course not the climate, the resources and the finite planet, all of which take decades to play out, but the humans who react in violence when some threshold is crossed, thus triggering a fast collapse over a few years.

True and insightful. Its not like it would be impossible to distribute resources fairly enough for almost everybody to survive as the climate changes. Will we ever grow up as a species I wonder...

FlyingLotus

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #42 on: June 16, 2019, 09:03:45 PM »
As a student of economics and economic history, while I have little to say about climate science, I have many thoughts to offer about Peak Oil, "Limits to Growth" style thinking and "Population Bomb" claims:
  • As the origins of modern post-war environmentalism has its roots in Limits to Growth style Malthusianism, there has been a strange persistence of belief in these dire predictions, which have been mostly discredited.
  • Stories about "Limits to Growth" style Malthusianism or Peak Oil are mostly contradictory with worst case AGW scenarios. If the former is correct, that will depress carbon emissions, which have a linear relationship with economic output. If you constrain output (a natural consequence of "peak oil"), carbon emissions will fall.
  • Time and time again, the price mechanism has allowed humanity to successfully adjust to oil shocks. High oil prices of the 2000s encouraged investment in exploration of new reserves and development of shale. Similarly, in the wake of 1970s/1980s OPEC oil price shocks, an entire mode of industrial production in the West was ended - manufacturing became much less energy intensive, cars became more fuel efficient etc.
  • Contrary to the dire predictions of Peak Oil enthusiasts, we continue to discover massive new reserves, which have been developed in an unprecedented way. Iran and Venezuela have been taken off the market and oil prices are at historic lows.
  • Oddly, all of these has dire/abysmal implications for the long-term future of humanity - you cannot underestimate our ingenuity for finding carbon buried deep under the surface of this planet and torching it. Even as the price of solar/wind generated electricity plummet, our ability to extract oil/natural gas expands and, as many of you are likely aware, electricity generation is but one aspect of these commodities, which are the foundation of our agricultural system, transport system, are used in plastics, home heating systems etc.
  • In conclusion, Peak Oil/"Limits to Growth" thinking is, in a sense, optimistic from the perspective of environmentalists who wanted to see us "go back to nature" - humanity can prosper for decades to come on the basis of extremely cheap energy, a long-term disaster for the planet and humanity.

mabarnes

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #43 on: June 16, 2019, 09:59:12 PM »
This is a work document from Mobile Bay, AL.  I'm posting it because it triggered a gestalt - one of those moments when you "see the big picture" regarding this subject (Peak Oil) but more so the entire topic of Ice, AGW, Climate, and Life On Earth.

I'll admit my "insight" was very simple, stuff we all learned in junior high, not grad school.  Still, since I found it connected a few dots (in particular, something I'd only recently learned on continental drift) I thought I'd share....

etienne

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #44 on: June 16, 2019, 10:36:56 PM »
    • In conclusion, Peak Oil/"Limits to Growth" thinking is, in a sense, optimistic from the perspective of environmentalists who wanted to see us "go back to nature" - humanity can prosper for decades to come on the basis of extremely cheap energy, a long-term disaster for the planet and humanity.
    I  always wonder why people see decades as a long time. Our industrial civilization is only 20 decades old, middle age  was there for 100. I can't believe we have so much oil.

    Neven

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    Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
    « Reply #45 on: June 16, 2019, 11:37:31 PM »
    I can't believe we have so much oil.

    It doesn't matter how much there is, the current psychopath ideology will make sure every drop is taken out of the ground. Limits are discredited, you know. They simply don't exist. Death doesn't exist. It must not exist.
    Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

    Sebastian Jones

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    Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
    « Reply #46 on: June 17, 2019, 03:08:01 AM »
    As a student of economics and economic history, while I have little to say about climate science, I have many thoughts to offer about Peak Oil, "Limits to Growth" style thinking and "Population Bomb" claims:
    SNIP
    Well, perhaps if you were to study some climate science, and while you are at it, some ecological economics and systems thinking (you could do worse than start on this forum), you would get a rather more nuanced view of those topics.
    If I thought you were serious, and not simply trying to be disruptive, I'd go down your list and offer some refutations of your assertions, but I'm afraid that at the moment, it will be futile.

    FlyingLotus

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    Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
    « Reply #47 on: June 17, 2019, 05:26:10 AM »
    As a student of economics and economic history, while I have little to say about climate science, I have many thoughts to offer about Peak Oil, "Limits to Growth" style thinking and "Population Bomb" claims:
    SNIP
    Well, perhaps if you were to study some climate science, and while you are at it, some ecological economics and systems thinking (you could do worse than start on this forum), you would get a rather more nuanced view of those topics.
    If I thought you were serious, and not simply trying to be disruptive, I'd go down your list and offer some refutations of your assertions, but I'm afraid that at the moment, it will be futile.

    I have little to say about climate science because it isn't my field. It's a hobby of mine and I follow it with a lot of interest but I can't increase your understanding of it and there's no point in pretending otherwise. Instead, I argue that if you're interested in dealing with climate change, you should learn something about economics, a science that has something to say about economic growth, which is the single largest predictor of carbon emissions in a contemporary world where most human activity, in one way or another, is powered by fossil fuels.

    What I can say is that peak oil is nonsense. Yes, there will be some "peak" of oil production and oil production will decrease after this peak but that is not Peak Oil, it is something else. Oil production continues to increase, it shows no signs of waning and the break-even price of oil production in the shale field is roughly around the current price of oil - this was unthinkable 5 years ago. Saudi Arabia attempted to flood global markets with oil around the end of 2015 and it ended in disaster for them - the extraction of shale oil remained viable, even as oil prices plunged.  Again, oil fields in Venezuela and Iran have been taken off of global markets and oil prices are at ~50 dollars a barrel. This is about as low as oil prices have been over the past 40 years when you adjust for inflation, during a period of economic growth, when oil demand is robust!

    This does not make me a "climate denier" or a right-wing neanderthal or anything like that. I am actually a socialist and I believe that climate change poses an existential threat to the species in the long-run - what I am saying is that things are worse than you think they are because fossil fuels will be much cheaper and easier to extract than anyone anticipated ten years ago. I am arguing that all of this is bad insofar as it influences climate change.

    oren

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    Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
    « Reply #48 on: June 17, 2019, 05:42:06 AM »
    Welcome to the forum FlyingLotus. While I agree with some of your points I disagree with others, but I'll leave that for another day.

    FlyingLotus

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    Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
    « Reply #49 on: June 17, 2019, 05:50:36 AM »
    I can't believe we have so much oil.

    It doesn't matter how much there is, the current psychopath ideology will make sure every drop is taken out of the ground. Limits are discredited, you know. They simply don't exist. Death doesn't exist. It must not exist.

    More or less, yes. There is a limit to the amount of oil that there is in the ground but you can underestimate the human capacity to make this oil last or to produce this fuel in an efficient manner as it's a convenient fuel - large pools of capital are invested in developing cutting edge engineering solutions and advanced industrial equipment to ensure that this is so. The amount of R&D spending that went into developing hydraulic fracturing boggles the mind.

    All of this effort and energy could have been redirected towards wind/solar or, more generally, building infrastructure compatible with a future where we successfully mitigate the effects of climate change. It was not and here we are...