Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Peak Oil and Climate Change  (Read 12887 times)

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4376
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 631
  • Likes Given: 609
Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #150 on: April 07, 2021, 09:47:52 PM »
A Sense of Déjà Vu
https://www.ecosophia.net/a-sense-of-deja-vu/
Quote
What we are facing instead, at some point in the next few years, is another brush with peak oil supply, and thus another spike in the price of petroleum.  If it happens while the Biden administration is in office, to judge by the response of Biden’s handlers to the latest round of economic wobbles, we can probably expect a reprise of the 1970s strategy of expanding the money supply, and thus another round of stagflation followed by sky-high interest rates. If it happens under the next president, that’ll depend on which of the available range of bad options appeals most to Number 47 and his or her inner circle. One way or another, we can certainly expect serious economic and political troubles. We can also expect renewable energy advocates to bring another flurry of poorly conceived energy projects to market, and the apocalypse lobby to rediscover its fondness for petroleum depletion and fill the internet with another round of proclamations of imminent doom.
A few years further down the road, in turn, some new source of liquid fuels will be brought online in response to the higher prices then availble, most of the renewable energy products will vanish from the market because they don’t make economic sense, and the apocalypse lobby will forget all about petroleum depletion again in its eagerness to embrace the latest and most fashionable reason why we will all surely be dead by next Thursday—no, seriously, this time for real!  Thereafter, only a handful of people will remember that petroleum is a finite resource, and they will of course once again be dismissed as cranks by all right-thinking people—until the next price spike hits.
Quote
I therefore expect the next decade of so of politics and culture in the United States to be twisted into strange shapes by the frantic efforts of the downwardly mobile to claw their way back up to positions of privilege that aren’t there any more. Politicians and pundits will doubtless come up with any number of ways to exploit those efforts. In the end, however, it’ll all be wasted breath, because the process of decline cannot be reversed.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6807
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2494
  • Likes Given: 2247
Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #151 on: April 08, 2021, 02:49:01 AM »
A sense of deja vu indeed. Energy apocalypse can't happen without renewables being a failure, and rating can't be high without energy apocalypse. What to do? Obviously, primary energy to the rescue - bloating the weight of fossil fuels and undercounting renewables - and ignoring what happened since 2018, thus hiding the ongoing changes and hopefully the inflection point of renewables indeed becoming cheaper.



Quote
First of all, as the chart above shows, petroleum consumption has been increasing far more quickly than renewable energy sources have been coming online.  This is one of the reasons why I remain distinctly suspicious of claims currently being flung around by green-energy advocates that solar and wind power have become the cheapest source of grid electricity. If they really were that cheap, utility companies—which are after all in business to make a profit—would be piling into them on their own nickel, replacing expensive natural gas plants right and left with solar and wind plants. Now in fact utility companies are expanding their solar and wind plants in a much more cautious way, and by and large seem to be doing so only to the extent that government mandates or subsidies push them into doing so, so it’s pretty clear that the rosy figures being brandished by green-energy advocates have about as much in common with reality as does any other kind of glossy advertising.

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6807
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2494
  • Likes Given: 2247
Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #152 on: April 08, 2021, 03:21:04 AM »
Another way at looking at the data, focusing just on electricity as the quoted claim has to do with grid electricity and utility companies, using the same source (BP) and advancing another year in the chart.

Share of global electricity generation by fuel (percentage)


Quote
If they really were that cheap, utility companies—which are after all in business to make a profit—would be piling into them on their own nickel, replacing expensive natural gas plants right and left with solar and wind plants.
Well it seems utilities are indeed "piling into" renewables, replacing coal (and oil) for now though. It seems pretty certain looking at this data that a renewable revolution is indeed undergoing.

interstitial

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 78
Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #153 on: April 08, 2021, 05:21:20 AM »
us electricity - petroleum is about 2 twh a month not really significant here.

interstitial

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 78
Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #154 on: April 08, 2021, 05:58:34 AM »
renewable energy does not compete directly with oil until a significant portion of the population drive electric vehicles.
Mostly renewable energy competes for electricity production. In the US in 2020 solar added 15 gw wind added 14 gw NG added 6 gw and coal closed 11 gw. This growth in renewables occurred under a president who was pro coal and anti wind. Utilities bought 83% renewable generation and only 17% natural gas. So clearly renewable generation is competitive. The only reason any natural gas is built is batteries are too expensive right now. Battery prices are falling as utilities start to build gw sized battery projects.


As you can see from generation wind barely registered before 2005 and solar barely registered before 2014. Before that were only token projects. Solar is the cheapest form of energy out there. DOE has launched a program to decrease solar costs an additional 60% in ten years. DOE has been successful with similar programs in the past.