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Poll

When will the Beaufort Polynya connect with Bering Strait?

Before June 1 (this poll closes May 30 in the Americas)
5 (7.6%)
June 1-7
23 (34.8%)
June 8-17
25 (37.9%)
June 18-30
8 (12.1%)
July
5 (7.6%)

Total Members Voted: 66

Voting closed: May 30, 2019, 07:36:14 PM

Author Topic: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water  (Read 8732 times)

Neven

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #100 on: June 07, 2019, 03:40:05 PM »
Nope, not open.  ;D
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #101 on: June 07, 2019, 05:07:47 PM »
14:02h UTC

Still a big nope. That thing is elastic!

gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #102 on: June 07, 2019, 05:56:03 PM »
BBC Weather for utqiagvik

FOG until 3 pm Barrow time = 11 pm GMT = midnight BST = 1 a.m. 8 June European time
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #103 on: June 07, 2019, 06:19:06 PM »

FOG

It's already clearing up from the east.

15:41h UTC


wdmn

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #104 on: June 07, 2019, 06:24:35 PM »
We need a second poll on which part of the elastic finger the release will occur at...
« Last Edit: June 07, 2019, 06:57:43 PM by wdmn »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #105 on: June 07, 2019, 07:54:30 PM »
15:42h UTC

Not quite yet.

magnamentis

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #106 on: June 07, 2019, 08:39:52 PM »
13+ hours to go   ::)

hophe tha satellite didn't crash, missing the next pics LOL

self-evidently i'm in the 1st - 7th slot
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #107 on: June 07, 2019, 09:29:42 PM »
It is good fun that the apparent 'evaporation' (actually melting and/or dispersion) of the ice dam is occurring at the cusp of the two most-voted-in options.  I was obviously prescient with my decision to make somebody else (i.e., Neven) judge the transition from 'closed' to 'open'.  I may want him to sway one way while another coaxes him in another direction, but he is more used to handling such pressures than am I.

Long live Neven.  (hint, hint) ;)

And if you want to influence him, there is always the "Support and Donate" button on the Arctic Sea ice (ASI) Blog (on the right margin).

I may be suggesting bribery in jest, but I am seriously suggesting you support this project of Neven's (the ASI blog, forum and graphs - see links at top right of this page for Blog and Graphs).
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #108 on: June 07, 2019, 09:41:11 PM »
18:58h UTC

Clouds are gone. Clear view showing: Still connected

magnamentis

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #109 on: June 07, 2019, 09:58:09 PM »
18:58h UTC

Clouds are gone. Clear view showing: Still connected

this does not count no need to mention again LOL but the bridge is gone, a matter of hours considering wind speed, direction and temps.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2019, 02:54:57 AM by magnamentis »
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #110 on: June 07, 2019, 10:12:06 PM »
Windy is a model.

Satellite pictures show what actually happens.

Neven

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #111 on: June 07, 2019, 10:56:30 PM »
13+ hours to go   ::)

I thought I said midnight CET. It's almost 23 hours in Europe right now.  ;D
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gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #112 on: June 07, 2019, 11:08:18 PM »
13+ hours to go   ::)

I thought I said midnight CET. It's almost 23 hours in Europe right now.  ;D
Neven - you said based on the university of bremen sea ice concentration maps.
Does that mean we wait until tomorrow for the 7 june map?
Does that mean that the time depended on when the satellite made its pass over that little bit of the coast?

Reputations and honour are at stake. This could mean - Civil War on the ASIF !!?*?**!
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magnamentis

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #113 on: June 07, 2019, 11:31:53 PM »
13+ hours to go   ::)

I thought I said midnight CET. It's almost 23 hours in Europe right now.  ;D

ahhh.. ok, up to you i didn't even think that we would use anything but local event time but point taken.

thanks for the heads-up, i missed that part obviously ;)
« Last Edit: June 07, 2019, 11:42:34 PM by magnamentis »
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Neven

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #114 on: June 07, 2019, 11:53:30 PM »
Okay, I won't be a cold-hearted assh**e (who voted 8-17) and close the poll in 8 minutes.

But I want to see some good, high-resolution images tomorrow with the right time stamp on it (no photoshopping!).

Off to bed now, hoping I can sleep with all this excitement going on. Thanks, Tor...  ;)
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HapHazard

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #115 on: June 08, 2019, 03:01:34 AM »
I'm calling it open, as I could no doubt paddle my old aluminum canoe through that wispy slush ribbon right now.  ;D

« Last Edit: June 08, 2019, 03:10:30 AM by HapHazard »

Rodius

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #116 on: June 08, 2019, 03:11:19 AM »
The suspense.... the drama

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #117 on: June 08, 2019, 04:08:39 AM »
In any case, there is no doubt that the Pacific sector is unprecedentedly bad.


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #118 on: June 08, 2019, 04:58:39 AM »
Good morning America, how are you?

01:06h UTC


Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #119 on: June 08, 2019, 05:04:14 AM »
Quote
Good morning America, how are you?
Still dwelling in yesterday.

The train used to go through Tallahassee on its way to New Orleans, but a hurricane years ago put an end to that.  :'( (But they say it's coming back!  :))
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #120 on: June 08, 2019, 05:27:40 AM »
Years ago, eh? America sure is taking infrastructure seriously...  ::)

Sleep well America, we wait for you.

wdmn

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #121 on: June 08, 2019, 05:33:20 AM »
EDIT: SPOILER ALERT

At the end of yesterday I was very confident it would happen today.

About half way through the day today, looking at that elastic finger, I lost hope.

With only a few hours left local time, based on the latest RAMMB slider image, I now think that the elastic finger will break in time, but that the trail of slime it has left behind will make it difficult to declare that we have open water...
« Last Edit: June 08, 2019, 05:53:53 AM by wdmn »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #122 on: June 08, 2019, 05:40:42 AM »
Gonna show the thriller as seen on RAMMB even though there are spoilers in the thread..

wdmn

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #123 on: June 08, 2019, 05:55:02 AM »
Gonna show the thriller as seen on RAMMB even though there are spoilers in the thread..

I added a spoiler alert to my previous post  :-*

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #124 on: June 08, 2019, 05:56:26 AM »
LOL  ;D

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #125 on: June 08, 2019, 05:57:00 AM »
Quote
Prior to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 Tallahassee was a station stop on Amtrak's Sunset Limited
Quote
Amtrak Could Resume Service in Tallahassee By 2020
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Juan C. García

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #126 on: June 08, 2019, 06:03:47 AM »
Upss!
Is there a green point?
I didn't put it with Paint!  ;)
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/


Alaska: 3 hours to end the day.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #127 on: June 08, 2019, 06:03:47 AM »
Well, what do i do judging American infrastructure? Berlin's new airport is also a source of neverending joy...

Juan C. García

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #128 on: June 08, 2019, 06:19:30 AM »
Worldview with time stamp:
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #129 on: June 08, 2019, 07:08:03 AM »
04:18h UTC - MODIS 721


wdmn

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #130 on: June 08, 2019, 07:21:38 AM »
04:18h UTC - MODIS 721

I can almost see a passage through... it's 9:20 pm in Barrow.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #131 on: June 08, 2019, 07:30:58 AM »
Wdmn, i'm not gonna call it. Too risky. ;)

IMHO there are still too many brightish dots all the way up.

wdmn

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #132 on: June 08, 2019, 07:38:02 AM »
Wdmn, i'm not gonna call it. Too risky. ;)

IMHO there are still too many brightish dots all the way up.

I know, I know. You're right.

Thoughts and prayers!

Mr. Gyre, tear down that wall!

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #134 on: June 08, 2019, 08:33:26 AM »
Julian calendar. ;)

Another calendar I have to refer to quite a lot is the Ethiopian which is "semi-Julian", i.e. same problem with leap years but very different from the Russian-Orthodox calendar, the other well known Julian calendar.

Today June 8th 2019 at 08:10 would translate into 02:10 on Sanni 1st (which equates to June 1st) in the year 2011.

So any Ethiopians out there still have 6 days to fit into the 1-7 slot, but which year though?

Neven

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #135 on: June 08, 2019, 09:29:20 AM »
This is where things get interesting. If the fast ice along the coast disintegrates, the passage will be blocked a while longer. In the meantime, the winds will start to blow the other way, with a cyclone coming in. It's all up to melting now, and with a bit of bad luck even the '8-17' bin may not be a winner.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #136 on: June 08, 2019, 09:36:17 AM »
05:53 UTC

Neven might be right and this is not at all this imminent event we thought.

Found a Dragon nearby.:

gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #137 on: June 08, 2019, 10:56:40 AM »
It is a mountain lion looking down over the edge of the icy precipice.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #138 on: June 08, 2019, 11:00:37 AM »
Rotate it 90˚to the left, and it becomes a cute little horse.  :D

iceman

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #139 on: June 08, 2019, 11:25:21 AM »
Gonna show the thriller as seen on RAMMB even though there are spoilers in the thread..

I'm sitting and staring wide-eyed, mindlessly cramming popcorn into my mouth.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #140 on: June 08, 2019, 11:40:10 AM »
I mean, who doesn't?? ;)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #141 on: June 08, 2019, 12:01:09 PM »
A zoom in on the elastic slush.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #142 on: June 08, 2019, 02:00:52 PM »
As I understand it, this isthmus consists of old ice?



Or is the language of old ice already shifted to the Chukchi Sea?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #143 on: June 08, 2019, 03:22:52 PM »
That's a great find ArcticMelt2, i didn't realize that.

magnamentis

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #144 on: June 08, 2019, 03:35:47 PM »
Worldview with time stamp:

i was looking at the same but didn't find a time stamp nor do i see one in your posted image, it only tells the day but not the time, can you provide help how to find the time in those images, i rarely use those and have little experience, thanks.
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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #145 on: June 08, 2019, 09:25:07 PM »
Worldview with time stamp:

i was looking at the same but didn't find a time stamp nor do i see one in your posted image, it only tells the day but not the time, can you provide help how to find the time in those images, i rarely use those and have little experience, thanks.
Well, you are right.

It is just a day stamp, not a time stamp.
Surely someone here knows about the satellites timing, but I don't.
So, I cannot tell you.  :(


P.S. I post it ~3 hours before Alaska midnight.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #146 on: June 08, 2019, 09:44:26 PM »
NASA WorldView doesn't have timestamps. Neither does Sentinel Playground. Only the day and it could be taken anytime during this day.

Sites with timestamps:

Rammb Slider: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/.

PolarView: https://www.polarview.aq/antarctic

GINA Puffin Feeder: http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu

magnamentis

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magnamentis

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #148 on: June 08, 2019, 10:02:56 PM »
Worldview with time stamp:

i was looking at the same but didn't find a time stamp nor do i see one in your posted image, it only tells the day but not the time, can you provide help how to find the time in those images, i rarely use those and have little experience, thanks.
Well, you are right.

It is just a day stamp, not a time stamp.
Surely someone here knows about the satellites timing, but I don't.
So, I cannot tell you.  :(


P.S. I post it ~3 hours before Alaska midnight.


ahh... ok, thought i missed the feature, B_L posted images with a mention of the hour but no timestamp included in the image as well. i'm still searching

in the mean time i found the above, i know it's not a proof but apparently it's open in one or another way now. it's not a model but based on sat-observation:

GCOM-W AMSR2
« Last Edit: June 08, 2019, 10:25:22 PM by magnamentis »
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HapHazard

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #149 on: June 09, 2019, 04:36:12 AM »
It's been nothing but a string of slush for 2 days.