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When will the Beaufort Polynya connect with Bering Strait?

Before June 1 (this poll closes May 30 in the Americas)
5 (7.6%)
June 1-7
23 (34.8%)
June 8-17
25 (37.9%)
June 18-30
8 (12.1%)
July
5 (7.6%)

Total Members Voted: 62

Voting closed: May 30, 2019, 07:36:14 PM

Author Topic: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water  (Read 13881 times)

magnamentis

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #50 on: June 01, 2019, 08:57:25 PM »
doesn't look like a lot of changes and looking at waves hammering the dam chances are intact that we shall see a significant channel till the 7th

further the current conditions seem to remain quite "stable" for the next few days in all parameters like wind, waves and temps.

as you can see i changed my favourite weather provider for that region after the epic fail with barrow temps recently.

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

sark

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #51 on: June 02, 2019, 05:50:25 AM »
yup.  kinda stalled out there (animates on click)
« Last Edit: June 02, 2019, 06:11:07 AM by sark »
I am not a scientist

Juan C. García

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #52 on: June 02, 2019, 06:01:23 AM »
Getting closer, according to Bremen AMSR2 June 1st, 2019.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Rich

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #53 on: June 02, 2019, 06:29:58 AM »
yup.  kinda stalled out there (animates on click)

I don't see a stall. Quite the contrary. A slight shift of wind direction today brought the floating ocean ice closer to the coast today.

The fixed connection between the coastal ice and the ocean interior is lost. The strong tail winds are forecast to remain in place for the next week and the SST's are above average. The entire pack is being pushed, sliding and scraping along the coast.

The wind is going to push the entire pack past Utqiagvik.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #54 on: June 02, 2019, 06:33:19 AM »
I voted Juli because i thought the rotation might cause the pack to expand here. Looks like to be the wrong assumption.

Juan C. García

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #55 on: June 02, 2019, 06:37:00 AM »
I voted Juli because i thought the rotation might cause the pack to expand here. Looks like to be the wrong assumption.
I voted June 8-17 and seems that it is going to happen sooner.
The ice is being moved to hot waters (see the gerontocrat post).

SST Anomalies @ 31 May from http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php

Really hot in the North Pacific.

Also some warmth way up north in Baffin Bay. Air temps have also been predominantly warmer than average  up there for some time.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #56 on: June 02, 2019, 06:39:35 AM »
At least there is no money in the pot we lose Juan. ;)

JayW

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #57 on: June 02, 2019, 09:15:32 AM »
yup.  kinda stalled out there (animates on click)
Worldview images from consecutive days can be as little as 51 minutes apart or a much as 47.5 hours apart, it depends on which orbital swath the image was taken from.

If you look at it with sub daily imagery, it marches along unabated.
13.5 hour loop

« Last Edit: June 02, 2019, 09:45:46 AM by JayW »
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

Rich

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #58 on: June 02, 2019, 09:56:30 AM »
yup.  kinda stalled out there (animates on click)
Worldview images from consecutive days can be a little as 51 minutes apart or a much as 47.5 hours apart, it depends on which orbital swath the image was taken from.

If you look at it with sub daily imagery, it marches along unabated.
13.5 hour loop

Excellent gif. Thanks Jay.

The wind direction still has a role to play here. It it blows the last extension of the sea pack into the shore, there will be some more friction and twisting that could add a few days to the date of the opening.

I'll be looking at the angle of approach in the coming day or so.


ArcticMelt2

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #59 on: June 03, 2019, 04:09:48 AM »
In this weather, unsurprisingly, we have Alaska’s earliest freeing of ice.

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx






ArcticMelt2

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #60 on: June 03, 2019, 06:02:47 AM »
The width of the ice barrier was reduced to 50 km.

JayW

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #61 on: June 05, 2019, 03:22:13 AM »
10 hour loop
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #62 on: June 05, 2019, 03:44:32 AM »
In Kotzebue, this spring was warmer than past records for .... 3 DEGREES !!!

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx



The Pacific sector continues to collapse.


wdmn

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #63 on: June 05, 2019, 07:27:43 AM »
A tenuous connection...

Neven

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #64 on: June 05, 2019, 09:08:15 AM »
Looking at JayW's animation, it shouldn't take long now. But I won't mind if the ice can hold out three more days.  ;)
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Rich

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #65 on: June 05, 2019, 09:52:30 AM »
The winds have shifted again. Yesterday they were blowing more inland and now GFS has them blowing parallel to the coast. Still in the 15-20 knot range.

It's a cliffhanger.

johnm33

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #66 on: June 05, 2019, 10:45:09 AM »
three more days? anything but today is a fail for me

RikW

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #67 on: June 05, 2019, 11:23:47 AM »
If I voted today I'd still vote for 1-7 I think;

I guess it will be the 7th or the 8th it will be 'free'

Sterks

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #68 on: June 05, 2019, 12:34:26 PM »
The winds have shifted again. Yesterday they were blowing more inland and now GFS has them blowing parallel to the coast. Still in the 15-20 knot range.

It's a cliffhanger.
Yes and the ice drifts to the right. We may see a detachment before the 7

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #69 on: June 05, 2019, 03:40:06 PM »
Looking at JayW's animation, it shouldn't take long now. But I won't mind if the ice can hold out three more days.  ;)
… I'll let Neven be the impartial determiner of when the Alaskan coast area is deemed clear enough of ice. …
It never crossed my mind (until now) that Neven can just declare that June 8 will be the first day a boat can sail where there is currently an ice dam.  Heck, why wait for evidence with such power!  :o ;D
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #70 on: June 05, 2019, 03:56:34 PM »
It never crossed my mind (until now) that Neven can just declare that June 8 will be the first day a boat can sail where there is currently an ice dam.

Rest assured that "Snow White" will hold Neven to account if he ignores the incontrovertible evidence!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #71 on: June 05, 2019, 04:07:32 PM »
So, you didn't vote the way Neven did, I see.  (And Neven, by chance, voted the way I did, so you can guess where my loyalties lie [for the moment].) 

Isn't it incontrovertibly true that I'm - whoever is the "I" speaking - that I'm right?  ::) :P
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

magnamentis

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #72 on: June 05, 2019, 06:03:41 PM »
10 hour loop



two and a half days to go depending on time zone. tight race to the next mark on the 7th of June ;)

Juan C. García

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #73 on: June 06, 2019, 06:29:56 AM »
"...depending on time zone."
That can make an interesting debate of who won!  ;D
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #74 on: June 06, 2019, 09:35:03 AM »
From the archival images it follows that the passage first opened in early July 2009. 2019 is ahead of the past year, at least 3 weeks.

Neven

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #75 on: June 06, 2019, 10:24:44 AM »
Still not quite there yet:



If the fast ice to the east of Utqiagvik disintegrates, it may even take a bit longer. And the forecast is slowly changing...
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #76 on: June 06, 2019, 09:05:40 PM »
The RAMMB SLIDER is working again. \o/

The latest frame is 06.06. 13:04h UTC.

Might be it's already detached by now.

(Click to play)

magnamentis

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #77 on: June 06, 2019, 11:00:04 PM »
very little left as it seems ;) curiously looking forwart to the next day

wdmn

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #78 on: June 07, 2019, 12:45:25 AM »
Can we call it?

If not yet, should be the next image.

petm

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #79 on: June 07, 2019, 01:53:55 AM »
I'd say still a km or two to go... yes maybe the next image.

wdmn

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #80 on: June 07, 2019, 04:23:21 AM »
Oof!

Rich

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #81 on: June 07, 2019, 05:31:49 AM »
The pack ice has left the coast. I'm wondering if the space between the pack ice and the coast is a shallow shelf.




ArcticMelt2

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #82 on: June 07, 2019, 05:50:37 AM »
Captain Cook is very sad. Two centuries ago, even on the most perfect ship of his time, he could not reach Barrow even in August.

https://infowebbie.com/scienceupdate/captain-cooks-detailed-1778-records-confirm-global-warming-today-arctic/



Quote
Passengers simmered in Jacuzzis and feasted on gourmet cuisine this summer as the 850-foot cruise ship Crystal Serenity moved through the Northwest Passage. But in the summer of 1778, when Capt. James Cook tried to find a Western entrance to the route, his men toiled on frost-slicked decks and complained about having to supplement dwindling rations with walrus meat. The British expedition was halted north of the Bering Strait by “ice which was as compact as a wall and seemed to be 10 or 12 feet high at least,” according to the captain’s journal. Cook’s ships followed the ice edge all the way to Siberia in their futile search for an opening, sometimes guided through fog by the braying of the unpalatable creatures the crew called Sea Horses.

Floating ice with a height of 12 feet means multi-year ice with a total thickness of 30 meters (Archimedes' law into action).

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #83 on: June 07, 2019, 07:51:53 AM »
The latest picture was taken 00:56h UTC. The satellite will not orbit the area for a few hours after that.

This is exciting!

binntho

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #84 on: June 07, 2019, 07:57:08 AM »
Worldview this morning - seems to be almost there, but the lump of ice that seems to be landfast is in fact just a load of rubble and the first puff of off-shore wind will blow it out to sea.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

binntho

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #85 on: June 07, 2019, 07:58:52 AM »
Last relatively clear day in this area was the 25th of May where the rubbleness of the "landfast" ice is obvious:
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #86 on: June 07, 2019, 08:48:43 AM »
The latest picture was taken 00:56h UTC.

Correction: In the natural colours band there is a pic taken 03:28h UTC.

Neven

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #87 on: June 07, 2019, 11:06:36 AM »
Well, it's the 7th today. If by midnight tonight CET, no image is posted that clearly shows open water all along the coast, the June 1-7 bin will be out of the game!  ;D

I think this is the best poll ever posted on the ASIF.  :D
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #88 on: June 07, 2019, 11:21:54 AM »
06:51h UTC

The satellite passed Ellesmere Island.

be cause

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #89 on: June 07, 2019, 11:40:55 AM »
 looks all over bar the shouting .. :) .. what @ 0pen water Bering to the Lena delta next ? .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #91 on: June 07, 2019, 11:59:07 AM »
08:32h UTC

The satellite over the Amundsen Gulf.

Neven

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #92 on: June 07, 2019, 12:02:23 PM »
This doesn't meet my definition of 'open', need something better, today:
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gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #93 on: June 07, 2019, 12:31:42 PM »
Cloud when you really don't need it.

Reminds me of Monty Python's "Total Eclipse of the Sun 1972".... "Rain... Rain".
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Pmt111500

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #94 on: June 07, 2019, 12:36:42 PM »
And let us remember the time zones. Is Barrow at +9, +10 or +11?

(Oh, it 's at +8, or rather,  -8 so utc 8:00 on 20190608 is the proper change of date.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2019, 12:42:34 PM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

JayW

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #95 on: June 07, 2019, 12:50:31 PM »
Cloud when you really don't need it.

Reminds me of Monty Python's "Total Eclipse of the Sun 1972".... "Rain... Rain".

I think we may get lucky and get some clearing around 15Z.
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #96 on: June 07, 2019, 01:34:35 PM »
10:42h UTC

Rodius

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #97 on: June 07, 2019, 02:21:54 PM »
I really need to go to bed but I want to be right about June 1 to 7.
I will be up early to check the result in the morning.

I cant figure out if I need a social life or not.

wdmn

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #98 on: June 07, 2019, 02:27:18 PM »
F***ing hell that last finger is arcing like it's electric!

Just let go!

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #99 on: June 07, 2019, 03:34:00 PM »
LOL

12:21h UTC