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Poll

When will the Beaufort Polynya connect with Bering Strait?

Before June 1 (this poll closes May 30 in the Americas)
5 (7.6%)
June 1-7
23 (34.8%)
June 8-17
25 (37.9%)
June 18-30
8 (12.1%)
July
5 (7.6%)

Total Members Voted: 62

Voting closed: May 30, 2019, 07:36:14 PM

Author Topic: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water  (Read 11350 times)

sqwazw

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #150 on: June 09, 2019, 05:33:48 AM »
Is there a green point?

Not any more...surrounded by blue on the 8th.

Juan C. García

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #151 on: June 09, 2019, 05:53:20 AM »
It's been nothing but a string of slush for 2 days.
So, June 7th, 8th or 9th?
I think June 8th or 9th.


P.S. Officialy open more or less one month earlier than any other year.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2019, 06:09:05 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #152 on: June 09, 2019, 06:29:26 AM »
timestamp included in the image as well

The Rammb Slider site does that.

If you take a screenshot without timestamp included, you can always post the link to the picture in question.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #153 on: June 09, 2019, 08:48:52 AM »
Close, but still no cigar?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

HapHazard

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #154 on: June 09, 2019, 11:53:57 AM »
It's been nothing but a string of slush for 2 days.
So, June 7th, 8th or 9th?
I think June 8th or 9th.


P.S. Officialy open more or less one month earlier than any other year.

8th, going by this one. (personally, I don't consider slush to be solid connected ice, so 6th!)

be cause

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #155 on: June 09, 2019, 11:58:10 AM »
I would certainly feel that 'sailing a non-icebreaker' along the Alaskan coast has been possible for a few days now .. that was the original definition of 'open' .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Rich

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #156 on: June 09, 2019, 12:16:25 PM »
I would certainly feel that 'sailing a non-icebreaker' along the Alaskan coast has been possible for a few days now .. that was the original definition of 'open' .. b.c.

I agree. But it's not worth arguing over.

The big picture is that this is happening a month earlier than in the past.  With the heat coming to Arctic coastlines in the coming days, would be sailors are going to find ever increasing navigable waters

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #157 on: June 09, 2019, 12:29:05 PM »
So for the moment, we can't see due to the hefty cloud cover.

But the latest Sentinel playground picture i looked at, i wouldn't go through there with a non ice breaker. It might look like slush but mind the scale. There are huge floes inside that slush and the slush itself is very compact.

Not arguing, only saying i wouldn't do it!

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #158 on: June 09, 2019, 04:04:39 PM »
Open or not?

Neven

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #159 on: June 09, 2019, 04:32:53 PM »
Close, but still no cigar?

I'm not willing to call it yet. It has to be open water all the way, really open water. Or else there's no point in me writing a blog post about it.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

magnamentis

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #160 on: June 09, 2019, 05:53:54 PM »
It's been nothing but a string of slush for 2 days.
So, June 7th, 8th or 9th?
I think June 8th or 9th.

as a 1-7th slot representative i agree with 8th or 9th, was interesting and fun either way, thanks to all positive contributors to this exiting event coverage.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #161 on: June 09, 2019, 07:26:10 PM »
16:45 UTC

Still can't say for sure...  :-X

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #162 on: June 09, 2019, 09:11:25 PM »
18:22 UTC

Is it?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #163 on: June 09, 2019, 09:20:08 PM »
...  open more or less one month earlier than any other year.
This, of course, is the main purpose of this poll - to help us recognize what's happening.  :'(

I would certainly feel that 'sailing a non-icebreaker' along the Alaskan coast has been possible for a few days now .. that was the original definition of 'open' .. b.c.
Well, Neven's interpretation of this ...  :P
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

JayW

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #164 on: June 10, 2019, 12:44:14 AM »
18:22 UTC

Is it?

I think that front blew a path through the slush, but until all the clouds clear, can't be 100 percent positive.  There's a real chance the winds blow the pack back in, and I'm not sure if that would nullify any "open" path.   I'll let others decide.
2139Z
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HapHazard

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #165 on: June 10, 2019, 01:07:34 AM »
I paddled my canoe thru there on the 6th, honest.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #166 on: June 10, 2019, 01:12:30 AM »
I'm quite willing to believe you, Hap.  Pity it wasn't a sailboat.   ;D
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #167 on: June 10, 2019, 03:43:29 AM »
Here is a Sentinel-hub Playground 'close up' of the icy isthmus from a couple days ago.  Amazing how dense it it, given the individual floes are pretty much 25 meters across or less (much less, mostly). (scale in the lower right corner - you may need to scroll to see it)
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Rod

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #168 on: June 10, 2019, 04:17:56 AM »
I think it's over ...

JayW

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #169 on: June 10, 2019, 04:20:39 AM »
32 hour loop, the frontal passage and associated wind shift is quite evident, it also removes all doubt from my mind that it's clear sailing for a non-icebreaker.


"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

Rod

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #170 on: June 10, 2019, 04:30:31 AM »
I think Neven is asleep.  When he wakes up, I'm pretty sure he will agree it is open.  Wow!   So early for a clear path around Alaska!

PS. - Great image JayW!!!   
« Last Edit: June 10, 2019, 04:39:42 AM by Rod »

Juan C. García

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #171 on: June 10, 2019, 05:23:31 AM »
Bremen false color map...
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #172 on: June 10, 2019, 05:29:14 AM »
And Worldview for June 10th. (At this time, only appears Chukchi and Beaufort Seas).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #173 on: June 10, 2019, 05:40:40 AM »
32 hour loop, the frontal passage and associated wind shift is quite evident, it also removes all doubt from my mind that it's clear sailing for a non-icebreaker.

How do you make a loop with the stills filtered out? On ezGIF?

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #174 on: June 10, 2019, 06:01:24 AM »
https://twitter.com/lavergnetho

Quote
The regional #SeaIce extent curve is one month earlier 2017, and two whole months earlier than in the 1980s.


Juan C. García

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #175 on: June 10, 2019, 06:04:30 AM »
i was looking at the same but didn't find a time stamp ...
It seems that Worldview doesn't have a timestamp because it makes the full Arctic picture with several images taken at different times. It has been starting a new day with Chukchi and Beaufort Seas.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

HapHazard

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #176 on: June 10, 2019, 06:23:18 AM »
Y'all can go on about it being open if you want - me, I'm gonna keep on paddlin' to Prince Patrick Island.

dingojoe

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #177 on: June 10, 2019, 06:40:44 AM »
32 hour loop, the frontal passage and associated wind shift is quite evident, it also removes all doubt from my mind that it's clear sailing for a non-icebreaker.

If you look closely, you can see how the ice stretched out like the tape at the finish line of a race, and HapHazard paddled through in his canoe and the tape snapped in two.  He had his calendar upside down though, and it was the 9th not the 6th.

HapHazard

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #178 on: June 10, 2019, 06:45:48 AM »
I blame the Laphroaig.  ;D

Neven

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #179 on: June 10, 2019, 06:47:25 AM »
I'm awake and it's open. Good to see that Rick Thoman follows this forum.  ;)
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

wallen

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #180 on: June 10, 2019, 07:34:22 AM »
Assuming this remains opens, would be interested to hear of the impact it may have, over the rest of the melt season.

sark

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #181 on: June 10, 2019, 08:53:19 AM »
Y'all can go on about it being open if you want - me, I'm gonna keep on paddlin' to Prince Patrick Island.

Plant some Cycads and Citrus trees
I am not a scientist

JayW

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #182 on: June 10, 2019, 10:51:37 AM »
32 hour loop, the frontal passage and associated wind shift is quite evident, it also removes all doubt from my mind that it's clear sailing for a non-icebreaker.

How do you make a loop with the stills filtered out? On ezGIF?
No filter,.I omit the frames when the satellite doesn't image the area by taking screenshots, it's a bit tedious, but makes for a better finished product in my opinion.
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #183 on: June 10, 2019, 11:13:48 AM »
Oh, that's a lot of work for a GIF. Thanks for the effort man! Well done.

seaice.de

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #184 on: June 10, 2019, 01:26:04 PM »
AMSR2 animation the scene.

https://twitter.com/seaice_de/status/1138007405369942016

As always click to play

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #185 on: June 10, 2019, 01:34:07 PM »
Holy cow, seaice.de! What a freaking awesome animation.

Thanks so much for sharing.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #186 on: June 10, 2019, 04:27:32 PM »
I'm awake and it's open. Good to see that Rick Thoman follows this forum.  ;)
Ever the statesman, I note Neven didn't say when!  And then he pulled a 'squirrel' so we wouldn't notice.   :o  ::) :P  ;D
Thanks for all the interesting comments and creative presentations. 

And remember not to drink and paddle drive, unless your vehicle has Full Self-Driving Capability.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

magnamentis

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #187 on: June 10, 2019, 05:55:02 PM »
I blame the Laphroaig.  ;D

i prefer the lagavulin ;)  :P

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #188 on: June 10, 2019, 06:25:26 PM »

You guys should join the Scotch Malt Whiskey Society. Though I warn you, you'll never drink an off the shelf bottle again...

Jim Hunt

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #189 on: June 10, 2019, 06:51:17 PM »
I kept looking yesterday, but the NWS don't seem to work on Sunday. Today's update seems conclusive however?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

magnamentis

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #190 on: June 10, 2019, 08:11:03 PM »

You guys should join the Scotch Malt Whiskey Society. Though I warn you, you'll never drink an off the shelf bottle again...

you mean those with up to 70 degrees and a drop of distilled water from a pipette ?   

even though i'm mostly with you, for "weekly use" LOL (don't want to out me as a "daily")
there are a few nice ones, i.e.

- Isabella's Islay
- Macallan "M" whisky
- Macallan 64 Year Old in Lalique
- Dalmore 62 Single Highland Malt Scotch
- Dalmore 64 Trinitas

all true but still a bit [kidding] certainly you know why LOL [big fun]

i'll let you know when i drive by with my 2-wheeler the next time (this summer hopefully) perhaps i can learn new things.


HapHazard

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #191 on: June 10, 2019, 09:46:14 PM »
If you're not taking out a 2nd mortgage for a bottle of scotch, it's crappy scotch.

*clangs back a PBR*

johnm33

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #192 on: June 10, 2019, 10:30:43 PM »

You guys should join the Scotch Malt Whiskey Society. Though I warn you, you'll never drink an off the shelf bottle again...
Unless you move to Constantine

Darvince

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #193 on: June 11, 2019, 11:38:55 AM »
Oof! I was dramatically beaten in this poll by the weather. I was one of the fellows who voted for July. I didn't have much reason for voting July, and looking at 2016 vs '19 in the first post now, it is clear that it was going to be much easier for this year to achieve open water between them than it was in '16, due to the different angles the ice was moving at. It is quite unsettling to see it open so early :D :o :(

be cause

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #194 on: June 11, 2019, 12:02:54 PM »
I too was beaten by the weather .. I had felt it possible that it could have happened before the end of May ..:) .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Jim Hunt

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #195 on: June 11, 2019, 06:58:09 PM »
BTW, it seems that I've previously neglected to mention that I voted for June 8-17.

Is the consensus here now that June 8-17 was the "right" answer?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

magnamentis

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #196 on: June 11, 2019, 07:10:12 PM »
BTW, it seems that I've previously neglected to mention that I voted for June 8-17.

Is the consensus here now that June 8-17 was the "right" answer?

one can say so, it was tight as predicted but the 8th, published at the 9th, was the first day that was showing a clean channel. the rest remains prone to definitions but in case of doubt i'm opting for clear visuals instead of half smart artificial definitions.

WHICH is why i dislike to read 1'000'000 km/2 of ice extent as "Ice-Free" i pledge for a consequent approach to such matters, else things have a small of arbitrariness at the will of a few.

HapHazard

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #197 on: June 11, 2019, 08:52:48 PM »
I voted for bin Jun 6-10.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #198 on: June 11, 2019, 08:59:48 PM »
I voted for bin Jun 6-10.

Well that certainly wasn't very haphazard of you. Please could you be a little more random in your guesses? Otherwise I'll be asking Neven to change you name to something more suitable. e.g. "NotVeryHapHazard".

Juan C. García

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Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
« Reply #199 on: June 11, 2019, 09:17:55 PM »
I voted for bin Jun 6-10.

Well that certainly wasn't very haphazard of you. Please could you be a little more random in your guesses? Otherwise I'll be asking Neven to change you name to something more suitable. e.g. "NotVeryHapHazard".
There is not a bin Jun 6-10.
But lucky you! Completely right in the middle!  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.