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What will the NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average be?

Above 5.50 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 5.00 and 5.50 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km^2
5 (5.2%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
16 (16.7%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2
19 (19.8%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
21 (21.9%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2
12 (12.5%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
4 (4.2%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km^2
8 (8.3%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
7 (7.3%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km^2
2 (2.1%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
1 (1%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km^2
1 (1%)
Under 2.00 million km^2
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 96

Voting closed: June 11, 2019, 09:45:19 PM

Author Topic: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll  (Read 1415 times)

Juan C. García

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NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« on: May 31, 2019, 09:45:19 PM »
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP).
Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting.

These are the September averages on 2000-2018 (in millions km2):

   Year          Extent
                10^6 km2
1980's Avg.   7.21
1990's Avg.   6.66
2000's Avg.   5.65
2010's Avg.   4.68
2000             6.25
2001             6.73
2002             5.83
2003             6.12
2004             5.98
2005             5.50
2006             5.86
2007             4.27
2008             4.69
2009             5.26
2010             4.87
2011             4.56
2012             3.57
2013             5.21
2014             5.22
2015             4.62
2016             4.53
2017             4.82
2018             4.71

From lowest to highest:
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2019, 09:47:12 PM »
I vote 4.00 to 4.50M km2.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2019, 07:16:14 PM »
Juan, I am with you again. Not knowing, which bin you voted for, I directly went into 4-4.5 Mio. km²

jdallen

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2019, 08:21:17 PM »
I vote 4.00 to 4.50M km2.
I started there but decided to go one bucket lower.  I'm reasonably confident the end of season number  will be flirting with a break under 4.0.
This space for Rent.

Paddy

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #4 on: June 03, 2019, 09:41:14 PM »
 4.25 to 4.75.  Too often I've gone too low in my June prediction, and the forum as a whole has a strong tendency to do so, so I'm playing it cautious.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2019, 09:58:38 PM by Paddy »

DavidR

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2019, 04:02:32 PM »
3.75 to 4.25 (moved up one because this is the average)   Ice coverage looks a lot  like 2012 and 2016. Temperatures in the Arctic have been very  hot  over the past  two months. 

According to ESRL Air temps above 67N and 80N were hottest  on record for the last month and sea temps above 67N were also hottest on record.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

This suggests a lot of inbuilt  melting  as that heat attacks the ice.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2019, 05:08:44 PM by DavidR »
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

pearscot

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2019, 05:46:17 PM »
I voted 4-4.5 million. I have been wrong the last few years on the arctic and I don't see this year shaping up to be like 2012.
pls!

Brigantine

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #7 on: June 06, 2019, 08:02:42 AM »
Link to last year's same poll thread :)

UPDATE: Provisionally voted for 4.25 - 4.75, medium confidence. Won't be surprised if I end up revising this down in the next few days.
Based simply on taking my JAXA choice and adding a bin or two. Not very sophisticated.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2019, 12:52:20 PM by Brigantine »

oren

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #8 on: June 06, 2019, 08:57:24 AM »
I should have voted 4-4.5 but went one lower.
A lot depends on the date of refreeze, 2007 was very late and 2016 very early, hence their 0.25 difference.

diablobanquisa

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #9 on: June 08, 2019, 11:53:46 AM »
I voted between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2. This year I am pessimistic: sunny start to the melt season with Highs and even a Dipole-like pattern,  low continental snow cover, Beaufort early opening, thickest ice pilled towards Fram...

It will depend on the weather during the next three months, but in my opinion it looks worse than in previous years (even if Cryosat spring thickness data were rather good).

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2019, 10:18:42 PM »
Only two day left, to vote or change your vote!  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #11 on: June 10, 2019, 03:37:03 PM »
I vote 4.00 to 4.50M km2.
I am changing my vote to 3.75 to 4.25M km2.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Klondike Kat

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #12 on: June 10, 2019, 05:32:30 PM »
I am sticking with 4.5 - 5.0.  The melt over the past 45 days in lower than average, and I just do not see the melt increasing significantly to make up the difference. 

be cause

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2019, 05:37:58 PM »
at least Juan is moving in the right direction .. :) .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #14 on: June 10, 2019, 06:21:55 PM »
I vote 4.00 to 4.50M km2.
I am changing my vote to 3.75 to 4.25M km2.

Juan, welcome to my bin.

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #15 on: June 10, 2019, 08:10:45 PM »
I vote 4.00 to 4.50M km2.
I am changing my vote to 3.75 to 4.25M km2.

Juan, welcome to my bin.
This is going to be the right one…  ;)
Or not???

Come on guys, we need 100 votes at least!!!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

magnamentis

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #16 on: June 10, 2019, 08:16:20 PM »
this:
http://magnamentis.com
Knowledge, Understanding & Insight Are Among The Best Sources For Personal Freedom & Vitality !

Stephan

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #17 on: June 10, 2019, 10:08:49 PM »

Come on guys, we need 100 votes at least!!!
At the moment, there are just 80 votes in the list.

slow wing

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #18 on: June 11, 2019, 10:46:55 AM »
I voted "Between 4.00  and 4.50 million km^2" for the reasons given in the other poll thread.

Klondike Kat

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #19 on: June 11, 2019, 01:31:01 PM »

Come on guys, we need 100 votes at least!!!
At the moment, there are just 80 votes in the list.

The plea is working.  We are up to 90.

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« Reply #20 on: June 11, 2019, 09:06:43 PM »

Come on guys, we need 100 votes at least!!!
At the moment, there are just 80 votes in the list.

The plea is working.  We are up to 90.
Only 40 min. left to vote.
95 votes...
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.